Swing State Project

You know you are headed for defeat when your own pollster predicts that you will end up losing when all of the votes are counted.

“I don’t think Stevens can come back,” Dittman said, noting that he thinks the remaining trove of uncounted ballots will help Begich “increase his lead.”…

Dittman believes early and absentee ballots, which compromise the approximately 40,000 votes left to count, will likely reflect Begichs’ overall advantage so far among those who took advantage of either process. Heavy early voting occurred in the period that directly followed Stevens’ conviction on seven felony counts of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms.

This is good news, indeed. On a personal note, I will be travelling back to Michigan tomrorrow and my elderly parents do not even have a computer, let alone access to the internet. I was wondering if some kind soul would be willing to send me text messages to my mobile phone to keep me up to date? If I don’t have vote counting information, I’ll go insane. Feel free to send me an email and I will give you the number. Any assistance will be much appreciated. Thanks.

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

Now he has a point that 2010 is likely to be better for Republicans but even if they get the average 23 seat net gain in the House that barely gets them back above 200 seats, if that.

Also, on reapportionment. Same old conservative spin that Michael Barone parrots in the latest Almanac – red states will gain House seats thus more electoral votes after the 2010 census. Problem for the GOP is that Florida is now a blue state and Arizona should be ripe for going to Obama in 2012 without McCain on the ticket. I also believe North Carolina is due to pick up at least one more seat which supports the idea that as states increase in population they become more open to Democrats due to urban growth.

So, who wins what prizes this year?  Feel free to suggest other prizes or candidates for any prize!

Nominees below the fold.

Most Interesting Name:

Barack Obama (D-Pres)

Theodore Terbolizard (R-CA-04)

Pro-Life (R-ID-Sen)

Charlie Brown (D-CA-04)

Carl Mumpower (R-NC-11)

Elwyn Tinklenberg (D-MN-06)

(and Bill Sally?)

Most undeserving win:

Michelle Bachmann (R-MN-06)

Don Young (R-AK-AL)

Aaron Schock (R-IL-18)

Dollar Bill (D-LA-02)

Mean Jean (R-OH-02)

Most undeserving loss:

Nick Lampson (D-TX-22)

Nancy Boyda (D-KS-02)

Don Cazayoux (D-LA-06)

Most deserving loss:

Andy Harris (R-MD-01)

Tim Mahoney ( D WTF-FL-16)

Robin Hayes (R-NC-08)

Randy Kuhl (R-NY-29)

Virgil Goode (R-VA-05)

Tom Feeney (R-FL-24)

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO-04)

Best campaign:

Walt Minnick (D-ID-01)

Barack Obama & Joe Biden (D-Pres & VP)

Tom Perriello (D-VA-05)

Harry Teague (D-NM-02)

Alan Grayson (D-FL-08)

Jeff Merkley (D-OR-Sen)

Kay Hagan (D-NC-Sen)

Travis Childers (D-MS-01)

Worst campaign:

Bill Sali (R-ID-01)

Paul Kanjorski (D-PA-11) (but he won, so maybe he shouldn’t be here)

Mike Arcuri (D-NY-24) (well, he won anyway, but with a very underwhelming win)

Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH-15)

David Boswell (D-KY-02)

Linda Stender (D-NJ-07)

Kay Barnes (D-MO-06)

John McCain (R-Pres)

Rudy Giuliani (R-Pres)

Fred Thompson (R-Pres)

Bob Straniere (R-NY-13)

Carl Mumpower (R-NC-11) (YOU CAN’T STOP THE MUMPOWER)

“What happened to the” Liddy Dole “I knew?” (R-NC-Sen)

Stupidest event on the D side:

Michael “Bad” Jackson

Mahoney’s getting sucked into the FL-16 sex scandal swamp (or his sheer existence, after retroactively failing the ChadInFL Jim Webb Smell Test)

John Edwards’s also getting sucked into a sex scandal swamp

John Murtha’s rednecks comment

Mark Penn ignores caucuses

Boyda rejects the D-trip

Hillary attacks liberal elitism

Jon Powers vs. Jack Davis

Stupidest event on the R side:

McCain’s choice of running mate

the Club for Shrinkage primarying Wayne Gilchrest

NY-13 (enough said)

McCain’s suspended campaign (yea, right)

Dole’s “Godless” ad

Jim Gilmore’s convention

Bill Sali (he’s his own event)

Joe the Plumber debacle

Giuliani skips the early primaries

Wilson vs. Pearce (NM-Sen)

Cheney endorses McCain

Big Bad John Cornyn (granted, though, he didn’t lose)

Best-looking men:

Martin Heinrich (D-NM-01)

Mark Warner (D-VA-Sen)

Aaron Schock (R-IL-18)

Scott Kleeb (D-NE-Sen)

Patrick Murphy (D-PA-08)

Jon Powers (D-??)

Best-looking women:

Gabby Giffords (D-AZ-08)

Sarah Palin (R-VP)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY-20)

Debbie Cook (D-CA-46)

Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D-SD-AL)

Closest federal race: well, this still has yet to be decided.  But it looks like MN-Sen, OH-15, or CA-04 might win that prize, with VA-05 having an outside chance.  (“Landslide Joe” Courtney won by a real landslide this time.)

Our daily series of 2010 threads continues, and today the SSP Recruitment Express is running at full steam through the Golden State.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited, meaning that many, many Democrats are salivating over the opportunity to take back the Governor’s mansion in California. There are a lot of potential names out there for Democrats (including Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who has already announced his candidacy), but who would you like to see reach for the ring? And for the Republicans, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner seems to be their likeliest candidate, but will more names join the fray? (Paging Tom McClintock…)

On the Senate side, will Schwarzenegger actually challenge Barbara Boxer? It seems a bit unlikely to me at this point, but I guess you never know. If not, will any Republicans of note step forward (and I’m not sure if this guy really counts)?

And here’s an interesting wrinkle. One of the rumored candidates for the gubernatorial election is none other than Diane Feinstein. Assuming she ran and won, she would be in the rare position of appointing her own replacement in the Senate. If such a scenario actually happens, whom would you like to see Feinstein appoint? There are a lot of choices on California’s bench out there.

There will be 16 democratic held seats up in 2010. I’ll take a look at which of these seats I consider to have the potential to be competitive.

Before I start, I’ll just add that I’m going to be small c, conservative with this analysis. Many of the races that I put in the competitive category will probably not be competitive on election day, but that looking 2 years ahead I have absolutely no idea what will happen.

Not competitive races: Even 2 years ahead of time, I think I can safely predict that barring something unusual I don’t expect a race in these states.

1. Arkansas(Blanche Lincoln)-Huckabee is not running.

2. California(Barbara Boxer)-You think Arnold’s ego will allow him to be one of 100, and a powerless backbencher at that? PLEASE.

3. Indiana(Evan Bayh)

4. Maryland(Barbara Mikulski)

5. New York(Charles Schumer)

6. North Dakota(Byron Dorgan)-Hoeven’s passed on a race twice, no reason to believe it won’t be a third.

7. Oregon(Ron Wyden)

8. Vermont(Patrick Leahy)

9. Washington(Patty Murray)-I think 2-time loser Dino Rossi is probably too tainted by now.

Now, I’ll look at the 7 states I think could be competitive.

1. Colorado(Ken Salazar)-Things are looking real good for Salazar, but if former Gov. Bill Owens decides to return to politics, who knows.

2. Connecticut(Chris Dodd)-I don’t expect this race to be competitive. But, Dodd does have pretty mediocre approval ratings and if Chris Shays decided to run Dodd could be in for a race.

3. Hawaii(Daniel Inouye)-He runs again, he wins. But, he’ll be 86 on election day. And if he chooses to retire, the Dem will be a favorite but Gov. Lingle could give us some heartburn.

4. Illinois(TBD)-Whomever is appointed will be a heavy favorite but until we know exactly who that is, its impossible to know how this will play out.

5. Delware(TBD)-This is even more complicated than Illinois since there’s the possiblity of a place holder so Beau can run in the 2010 election. But judging by the DE GOP’s inability to field a credible candidate for the 08 Governor’s race doesn’t bode well for them here.

6. Nevada(Harry Reid)-I know a lot of people have looked at this race as potentially very competitive, but I just don’t see it. But, I have little doubt that whomever is running the NRSC will be trying hard to recruit a top-tier candidate here.

7. Wisconsin-I don’t expect this race to be competitive either. But if Scott Walker or Paul Ryan decide to run, this could turn into a very tight race.

Zoom, zoom, zoom!

Mark Begich made a dramatic comeback Wednesday to overtake Ted Stevens for the lead in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race.

Late Wednesday night, Begich led Stevens by 814 votes — 132,196 to 131,382 — with the state still to count roughly 35,000 more ballots over the next week.

The state Division of Elections tallied about 60,000 absentee, early and questioned ballots on Wednesday. The ballots broke heavily in Begich’s favor, erasing the 3,000-vote lead that Stevens had after election night last Tuesday.

That leaves an additional 20,000 absentee ballots and 15,000 questioned ballots to be scrutinized and counted. The Anchorage Daily News gives us a timeframe:

The regional election districts centered in the Mat-Su Valley, Nome and Fairbanks will count their remaining ballots Friday. The Southcentral regional election district, based in Anchorage, plans to count ballots between Monday and Wednesday.

As you can see from ADN’s results map, in the results tallied so far, the Mat-Su Valley went strongly for Stevens, while Nome went about as strongly for Begich. Fairbanks was a bit of a wash, and both candidates have different pockets of support in Southcentral. Overall, though, our friends at 538 feel good about the numbers so far. I’m optimistic, too.

Update: ADN has revised the quoted section above to the following:

Most regional elections headquarters will count their remaining ballots on Friday. But the most populous region, based in Anchorage, won’t count its ballots until either Monday or Wednesday, state elections chief Gail Fenumiai said.

So I’m a little unclear as to where exactly these remaining votes are coming from, although the article states that the Nome-based election district (northern and western Alaska, where Begich romped) has yet to count any of its absentee ballots at all.

One More Update: The AP still hasn’t declared a winner in the state’s at-large House race, but the odds of Don Young losing seem slim to none. After today’s flood of new votes, The Donald currently sits on a 15,000-vote lead. That number didn’t budge much from Young’s earlier 17K lead. So, if there are indeed 35,000 absentee and questioned ballots left to be counted, Berkowitz would have to win a bit over 70% of those outstanding votes (assuming that all those questioned ballots are counted — which isn’t going to happen). Given the relatively minimal movement in Berkowitz’s favor compared to Begich’s pickup, is this at all possible? I very much doubt it. Perhaps there are even more absentee or provisional ballots floating around that could bump that number up, but even still, it’s hard to see a path for a Berkowitz miracle here.

Nail-in-the-Coffin Update: The AP calls the race for Young. (H/T: Progressive America)

A Republican state senator will take over.

From the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll, 78, the first woman elected to that office in Pennsylvania history, died today after a battle with a rare form of cancer…

She will be replaced as lieutenant governor by Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati (R., Jefferson).

Drew Crompton, a spokesman for Scarnati, said a decision about a swearing-in ceremony will be made tomorrow. He said Scarnati will retain the role as president pro tempore as his predecessor Robert Jubelirer did in 2001 when Lt. Gov. Mark Schweiker became governor after Gov. Tom Ridge left to become Homeland Security director.

The Center for Responsive Politics has an extremely interesting post today about how many victors in congressional races outspent the losers. The answer, in case you didn’t guess, is almost all of them (93% in the House).

There were 28 House races where the candidate who spent less money still won the race. (This appears to discount the role of third party expenditures, as you’ll see in the case of LA-06, where the role of Cassidy was to spend little while outside parties poured in the cash. Perhaps a project for a future day will be to add IEs to these numbers and re-order them.) All of the races you will recognize from our competitive House Ratings list. If you want to see the list in its entirety, please click through to their story… but I thought I’d add a wrinkle and rate the races not according to how much was spent but according to the winner/loser ratio. In other words, which victorious candidates won most efficiently? Here are the top 10:

District	Winner	$$$	Loser	$$$	Ratio
GA-13	Scott (D)	$842K	Honeycutt (R)	$4,406K	19.1%
LA-06	Cassidy (R)	$620K	Cazayoux (D)	$2,279K	27.2%
PA-03	Dahlkemper (D)	$712K	English (R)	$1,905K	37.4%
FL-16	Rooney (R)	$1,021K	Mahoney (D)	$2,418K	42.2%
SC-01	Brown (R)	$702K	Ketner (D)	$1,641K	42.8%
NC-08	Kissell (D)	$1,100K	Hayes (R)	$2,509K	43.8%
AL-02	Bright (D)	$850K	Love (R)	$1,929K	44.1%
OR-05	Schrader (D)	$1,030K	Erickson (R)	$2,308K	44.7%
NJ-07	Lance (R)	$942K	Stender (D)	$2,092K	45.0%
VA-02	Nye (D)	$733K	Drake (R)	$1,372K	53.4%

In the Senate, there were only two races where the more frugal candidate won: North Carolina and New Hampshire. New Hampshire was very close (99%), but Kay Hagan won this one on the cheap: $6,014K to Dole’s $15,716K, or 38% (although, again, you should factor in the millions dumped into NC by the DSCC).

One other lesson from this story: self-funding doesn’t work. 49 Congressional candidates spend $500,000 of their own money, and of them, only 6 House candidates and 1 Senate candidate won. Perhaps the saddest case of this was Sandy Treadwell, who ran against Kirsten Gillibrand in NY-20. Treadwell poured in at least $5.9 million of his own money. (Gillibrand spent $3.6 million, but only $250 of that was her own money.) The return on Treadwell’s investment: priceless. If by ‘priceless,’ you mean losing to Gillibrand by a 23-point margin.