Swing State Project

SurveyUSA (10/18-20, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (44)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first time we’ve seen Hagan leading in a SUSA poll (they’ve typically been friendlier to Dole and McCain in North Carolina than other pollsters), so this is encouraging.

The Republican Civitas Institute has another poll of their own (10/18-20, likely voters, 10/6-8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 44 (45)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 41 (42)

Chris Cole (L): 4 (3)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

All in all, things are looking pretty good for Kay Hagan right now. It’s no small wonder that Liddy Dole has hit the panic button by loaning her own campaign $3 million.

Bonus findings: McCain and Obama are tied at 47-47 in the SUSA poll (up from 49-46 McCain), while Civitas pegs Obama ahead by 48-45 (down slightly from 48-43).

It’s looking increasingly obvious that we have major opportunities opening up nationwide. We have a real chance to expand our Democratic majority in Congress beyond our wildest dreams (back in 2007) while also winning back The White House with Barack Obama. That’s why it’s critical that we take action NOW to take advantage of this unique opportunity we have now.

Want to see where I’m looking?  

Well, let’s start with a race that’s suddenly jumped onto the national radar. Let’s talk about California’s 46th District. I’ve been working this district for a while now, as I live just blocks away from the district boundary. I can’t emphasize enough how good a chance Debbie Cook has to win. I’ve walked the district everywhere from Santa Ana to Long Beach to Costa Mesa to Catalina. I’ve talked to Republicans who are ready to vote for Debbie and Democrats who are excited now like they’ve never been excited before. Now’s our chance to turn this red district blue.

Let’s talk about the 44th District. This race may still be under the radar, but we shouldn’t be ignoring Bill Hedrick. The Republican registration gap has narrowed dramatically, the Inland Empire has been shifting gradually to Democrats, and we have a great candidate running in Corona-Norco School Board Member Bill Hedrick. He’s been winning in a “red district” before, so let’s not underestimate him now.

And of course, we have even more special opportunities in California today. Both Bill Durston in CA-03 (Suburban Sacramento) and Nick Leibham in CA-50 (Suburban San Diego) are in a dead heat against the Republican incumbents. Charlie Brown in CA-04 (Exurban Sacramento) remains poised to send Carpetbagger Tom McClintock packing to the next race he’ll file for. Even supposedly safe Republicans like Mary Bono Mack in CA-45 (Palm Springs Area) are now feeling the heat!

So what can we do to make California bluer? Give! I mean it… Give!

We’re only two weeks away from victory. How big do you want it? Well, we can make it big here in California. Are you ready to make it happen?

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor (10/17-19, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 48 (44)

Jeb Bradley (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 49 (47)

Jennifer Horn (R): 35 (34)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in New Hampshire in the newest round of Research 2000 polls of that state for the Concord Monitor. Probably most notable is the improvement for Carol Shea-Porter, who has posted mostly underwhelming poll numbers this cycle; however, she’s up to a five-point lead from a one-point lead last month. (With a 6% margin of error, though… each CD’s sample seems to be half of the statewide sample… anything could be going on there.)

On the Senate side, John Sununu has gained a couple points on Jeanne Shaheen, probably on the back of major advertising expenditures (he’s got a big warchest; now’s the time to spend it). He’s left with an awful lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks, though.

Obama leads McCain 50-43 at the top of the ticket. And as a bonus, I know everyone has been losing a lot of sleep worrying over the New Hampshire governor’s race; incumbent Dem John Lynch leads John Joe Kenney 60-34.

Just a few responses to comments from old topics that I missed while out of town.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Did Kanjorski do something bad?  If not, it seems that the only ones who need to go are Mahoney and Jefferson.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Well, granted, Negron ran a strong campaign, as I heard, and they had a really nice slogan for it too (“Punch Foley for Negron”).

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Do we have evidence about Anzalone-Liszt’s quality other than MS-01?

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

And make those funny EV rules actually worth something!

Also, some funny thoughts about Florida, in response to a comment whose location I forgot:

No one puts faith in Florida.  Here are the rules of dealing with Florida:

1. No one understands Florida.  It does not make sense.

2. Florida does not do what you want it to do.  However, if you expect it not to do what you want it to do, it will do what you want it to do.  But this therefore starts an endless cycle in which you expect it to do either what you want or what you don’t want.

3. Florida has the inexplicable quantum ability to exist in more than one state of affairs simultaneously, allowing statement #2 to be true.  Thus, it is possible to simultaneously win and lose an election.

4. No one puts faith in Florida.  If you do, you are dutily rewarded.  Al Gore put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a supreme court decision.  George W. Bush put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a Middle Eastern mess, a sinking economy, and the worst presidential disapproval ratings ever.  Christine Jennings put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with voting problems in Sarasota County.  Katherine Harris put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with a good ass-whupping courtesy of Bill Nelson.  Heck, I put my faith in Florida and I was rewarded with with classical music stations disappearing from the south Florida radio airwaves, and with Florida being called for Bush with 97% reporting in 2004.

5. Florida also has the ability to create votes from thin air and erase votes into thin air.  No one is ever sure of the numbers, absolute or relative, of each.  These numbers are not necessarily whole; Florida has a record of involving fractions of votes as well.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (45)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP snapshot of the North Carolina governor’s race gives Bev Perdue a bit more breathing room. While PPP has generally been the most favorable pollster to Perdue, remember that they had her down by 3 at the start of the month. It seems like some of Obama’s momentum is finally transferring to Perdue, though, as PPP observes that she’s now leading among the under-30 crowd by 55-33; in previous polls, she had lagged Obama and Hagan in the young demo.

UPDATE: Civitas (R) also released governor’s race data today; Perdue and McCrory are tied at 43 each (last month, McCrory led 43-41). That’s sort of good news, too, as Civitas tends to be more favorable to McCrory and Perdue hasn’t led in a Civitas poll since August.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 36

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 57

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Man, this Indiana race is a tease. Thompson will occasionally pop up within the margin of error, and then the next poll will always be something like this one. (PPP says Thompson’s problems start with her pulling in only 64% of Democrats.) This poll, however, isn’t much worse than the overall Pollster composite, which is now at 52-37. Bear in mind this is the same sample that just gave Obama a 48-46 edge in freakin’ Indiana, so coattails aren’t helping JLT at all.

It may be hard to fathom how 9/11 hijacker Mohammed Atta would factor into a Congressional campaign in Florida, but Tom Feeney, the Republican Congressman of Jack Abramoff fame, has given it a shot.

   

In his most recent campaign ad , Feeney claims that his opponent, former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas, “wanted drivers licenses for illegals and terrorists” as a picture of Mohammed Atta’s drivers license flashes across the screen. Feeney is known for being corrupt, having been named one of the most corrupt members of Congress every year since 2005, but this is a new low. We cant let these vile, baseless attacks go unchecked – we have to make sure that Kosmas has the resources to set the record straight and get rid of Feeney for good.

Kosmas has made up huge ground since entering this race, and was polling ahead of Feeney in the most recent DCCC poll. However, Feeney has a nearly 2-1 cash advantage, and will no doubt make use of all his resources to slander Kosmas.

Lets send a message to Tom Feeney that this type of fear-mongering has no place in politics anymore by making a donation to Suzanne Kosmas.

   

Michele Bachmann, August 6, 2008:

“This is their agenda,” Bachmann states bluntly. “I know it is hard to believe, it’s hard to fathom — but this is ‘mission accomplished’ for them,” she asserts. “They want Americans to take transit and move to the inner cities. They want Americans to move to the urban core, live in tenements, [and] take light rail to their government jobs. That’s their vision for America.”

El Tinklenberg campaign ad, October 21, 2008:

As Transportation Commissioner, El Tinklenberg… built our first light rail.

We’re coming for you, Michele. And we’re coming on light rail.

SurveyUSA (10/18-20, likely voters, 9/21-22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 48 (46)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 48 (49)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Mmmm, I like this. I like this a lot.

This story at Politico is truly amazing. Josh Zeitz’s opponent, long-time incumbent (and ‘pro-life’ House caucus chair) Chris Smith, is paying in state tuition for his child enrolled at the University of Virginia. Smith is, in theory, representing the people of the Fourth District of New Jersey.

As if we didn’t already know that Chris Smith was out of touch with his New Jersey constituents. We learned not long ago that, in the last eight years, he has spent maybe two dozen nights a year in his home district (which is not in, say, Alaska, but only a reasonable two hours-plus by train from Washington, DC). He is basically a full-time resident of the great state (no disrespect meant here) of Virginia.

More after the jump.

This is a huge story that has the potential to reshape the media narrative in this fight. A number of major bloggers are covering this already.

Matt Stoller at Open Left has a diary up, as does Josh Marshall at TPM, and Matthew Yglesias at Think Progress. Blue Jersey has front paged this story as well, and is doing a great job of getting the word out to New Jersey Democrats.

This is a wave election, and this is our best chance in more than 25 years to sweep out a pro-deregulation, pro-Bush foreign policy conservative who is radical on social issues, especially those related to reproductive rights. Remember that Smith has introduced, on twenty two occasions, bills that would outlaw the common, everyday birth control pill and the IUD.

Josh Zeitz needs your help. Please consider volunteering as well as donating. To volunteer contact steve_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

Thanks!

September fundraising numbers for the four party committees:

Note that these figures do not include recent loans obtained by the DCCC ($15 million) and the NRCC ($8 million). I would expect their Senate counterparts to take out loans as well.

While we don’t yet know the details of the NRSC and the DSCC’s spending this month, the DCCC has made about $19.6 million worth of independent expenditures so far in October according to our IE tracker. By contrast, the NRCC has only spent about $6 million on IEs so far in October.