Swing State Project

SurveyUSA (10/15-16, likely voters, 9/24-25 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 42 (43)

Brett Guthrie (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

This is one of those few races where the DCCC’s involvement has seemed to have done more harm than good. Just check out this recent Bowling Green Daily News editorial to see what I mean.

On the heels of this rough SUSA poll, Boswell has released his own internal poll. Garin Hart Yang (10/8-9, likely voters, 8/23-25 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 41 (40)

Brett Guthrie (R): 40 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

It’s never a great sign when your own internals show the other guy with the big mo’.

Anzalone Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (10/10-13, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 48 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 29 (35)

Jason Wallace (G): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

That’s some big mo’ for Halvorson. It appears that the general landscape has shifted in the Dems’ favor in the wake of the financial crisis. On the generic ballot, Democrats have gone from a two-point disadvantage (38-40) to a two-point lead (38-36), and Obama has pulled ahead by two points (43-41) after trailing McCain by five here in September. Those aren’t powerhouse numbers, but keep in mind that Bush beat Kerry by 53-46 here, so that’s a big improvement.

Halvorson’s favorable rating: 40-42. Ozinga’s? 27-32.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)

Other 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster’s composite of 45-41.

This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to “Other,” which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for “Other” is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I’d previously assumed.)

Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith’s favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they’ve been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y’know, lead to someone getting reelected.

The wonderful folks over at The Hotline have rounded up the FEC Senate filings for the third quarter of 2008. Here are the numbers in handy chart-form.

All numbers are from July 1st through September 30th, with the exceptions of Oklahoma (7/10 – 9/30), Georgia (7/17-9/30) and Jim Slattery in Kansas (7/17-9/30). Note that the Hotline’s “Receipts” column is more expansive than the “Raised” column used in SSP’s House chart – Hotline includes “all donations, transfers, cmte money, loans/contributions made by the candidate, and interest earned on the account”; SSP only includes donations.

All numbers are in thousands.

A few days ago special polling results were released for four key ‘tipping point‘ counties. Much to my surprise, Politico (via Insider Advantage) has released another batch of these county-level polls. As with the last go-round, the news is pretty good for Obama (except maybe in Franklin County, Ohio, where he isn’t beating Kerry’s spread).

Bucks County, Pennsylvania (Philly burbs): 47 O/41 M (2004 51 K/48 B, 2000 50 G/46 B)

St. Louis County, Missouri (St. Louis burbs): 53 O/37 M (2004 54 K/45 B, 2000 51 G/46 B)

Prince William County, Virginia (DC burbs): 50 O/42 M (2004 46 K/53 B, 2000 45 G/53 B)

Franklin County, Ohio (Columbus): 45 O, 40 M (2004 54 K/45 B, 2000 49 G/48 B)

Again, there’s no downballot information accompanying these polls, but there are some prominent races in these districts that are likely to benefit from the rising blue tide: Prince William County is primarily in VA-11 (with fractions in VA-01 and VA-10), while the western half of Franklin County forms the bulk of OH-15 (along with most of OH-12 and a bit of OH-07). (Bucks County is PA-08, and St. Louis County is split between MO-01 and MO-02.)

Today, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate for the Senate from Georgia, is going up on the air on cable in Metro Atlanta and Columbus.  This is good news.  The analysis for a Survey USA poll states that Buckley hurts Chambliss more.

The first ad is over the flip.

Allen Buckley Commercial #1 from Allen Buckley on Vimeo.

And while we’re here, give Jim Martin some love: a Act Blue.

Ted Stevens is either lying or too senile to serve in the US Senate. Either way, he testified today that key house rennovations were done without his knowledge (Roll Call).

Stevens testified that a steel staircase, a first-floor deck and a steel balcony were installed without his knowledge. After he saw them, he said, he asked Allen for bills. Allen has testified that he believed Stevens was just “covering his ass” with those requests, but Stevens said today that was untrue.

Allen had testified earlier about a conversation he claimed he and Stevens had in Arizona at a “boot camp” they attended together, saying the conversation revolved around legal fees in another corruption case. “That’s just an absolute lie,” Stevens said Friday.

When Stevens’ attorney asked whether he had told Allen – as Allen had testified – that he knew Allen was not telling him about all of the expenses on the renovations, Stevens replied, “That’s another falsehood.”

In three hours of testimony, Stevens reiterated his wife’s testimony yesterday that they were unhappy with much of the work at the house.

One can make the case that Uncle Ted was in Washington when this part of the work was done. However, according to testimony, his wife was overseeing the project, she could have told him what happened, unless he wants to say that she is a total moron (is that what you’re saying, Ted?). Either way, he does not deserve to remain in office.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/22-24):

Gary Trauner (D): 44 (42)

Cynthia Lummis (R): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Gary Trauner keeps making a real race of this in the deep red state of Wyoming. Moving from a tie to a one-point lead shouldn’t be taken as anything but statistical noise, but it’s pretty clear this race survived Palinmania intact and is going to go down to the wire.

There’s one note of caution when viewing this poll, though: if you look deep in the crosstabs, you’ll see that 22% of Republicans are still undecided (compared with only 2% of Democrats and 9% of Independents). If the majority of those undecided Republicans break at the last minute for Lummis, she wins. (However, in a year as weird as this, with the Republican brand a smoldering radioactive heap of wreckage, I suppose that’s not a done deal.)

The rest of the poll reflects Wyoming’s Republican lean: McCain leads Obama 58-35, while in the two Senate races (one special, one regular, both with GOP incumbents) Mike Enzi leads Chris Rothfuss 61-34 and John Barasso leads Nick Carter 57-36.