Swing State Project

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 51

Darren White (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55

John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama’s statewide efforts here. It’s also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White — he’ll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA’s last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn’t seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich’s favor — if anything, the opposite.

In 2006, we went a long way towards defeating corruption in the Congress. The former Republican Congress, led by such men as Tom Delay was shown the door by American voters. Despite this, we still have a long way to go towards defeating Corruption in the Congress. As long as men like Exxon Ed Whitfield are allowed to haunt the hallowed halls of Congress, we have work to do.

We have already seen how Exxon Eddie and his staff believe in theft and vandalism. We have seen how Exxon Eddie attacks opponents for supporting battered women and children. However, Exxon Eddie’s Corruption runs even deeper than that.

We can all see how Exxon Eddie owns much Exxon and Chevron stock. That in itself is not corrupt, but when you own stock and vote in the interests of that stock over the interests of your constituents, that is corrupt.

Although Kentucky has a multitude of farmland and could profit handsomely from investment in renewables, Exxon Eddie votes his stock options and against any kind of investment in Kentucky farmland by researching the fuels of the future. It seems his own profits are much more important to him than the betterment of our district. I am not against any American being successful, and making a profit, but to do so at the expense of those you have spent thousands of dollars of special interest money from Big Oil to attack opponents is corrupt.

Even more disturbing for 47 million Americans are the campaign contributions from Drug, Health, and Insurance industries. This insures that Exxon Ed Whitfield with do anything in his power to insure that the power to decide who gets healthcare in country will fall to the Drug, Health, and Insurance industries. Even healthcare for children is off the table for Exxon Eddie.

Now, call me what you will, but I think it is corrupt to take money from such organizations, and then deny healthcare coverage to millions of American CHILDREN!! From a party that will run on character, and “Christian Values”, I simply ask. What did Jesus say to us about the treatment of Children? Do you really believe it is Christian to deny healthcare to any child?

While we are talking character, I simply ask what kind of person, or campaign attacks and mocks a candidate for doing a fundraiser for a center that cares for battered women and children. I submit that Ed Whitfield should be there too, asking what he can do for some of the people that need it the most in this district. Not mocking those who do.

I will tell you all that this election DOES come down to character. On one side we have the character of a wife, mother, veteran, and fellow citizen of the First Congressional District of Kentucky, who lives and works among us and knows the battles we face because she faces them too. On the other side, we have a career politician, a Washington insider that has been corrupted by the lust for money and power that comes from being in that town too long. His campaign will say and do anything as evidenced by their very actions in this election. While we will fight them in the arena of ideas and character in any forum, we would rather lose than display the childish, unprofessional conduct that has marked their campaign.

We can win with the resources to run just some T.V. and radio. We have Whitfield running scared, and I honestly beieve by their recent actions they have some internal polling that isn’t too hot. Make a real diffence and a real statement this year. Support new Leadership!!:

If we get T.V., we win!!

Polls will close in Arizona in about 15 minutes. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns for the GOP primaries in AZ-01 and AZ-05, and we’ll also be keeping an eye on the Dem vote in AZ-01.

RESULTS: Associated Press | AZ SoS

1:04AM: 88% in, and Hay’s lead is back up to 3.8%. Looking at the precinct-by-precinct returns, I can’t see a path for victory for Livingstone. Hay it is!

12:57AM: The AP calls it for Kirkpatrick. In AZ-05, Club For Growth blockhead Dave Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith by 30-28 with 94% in.

12:40AM: 86% in, and Hay still claims a 3.6% lead. There are what look to be a few marginally Livingstone-friendly precincts outstanding, but I think it’s going to be pretty tough for her to rise above.

12:24AM: Hay’s lead is at 3.6% with 79% in. We want this to hold, because Hay is a supremely unqualified far-right nutter who would be a big fat target for the DCCC and Ann Kirkpatrick to pummel into submission this fall. Go Hay!

12:15AM: 77% reporting in AZ-05, and Schweikert leads Bitter Smith by 30-28. Over in AZ-01, Hay continues to lead Livingstone by 3.9% with over 75% counted. On the Dem side, it seems pretty clear that Ann Kirkpatrick has won the nod.

12:04AM: Hay’s lead continues to hold steady at 4% with 73% in. Come on, baby, hold together.

11:55PM: While Hay now leads by 4.0% with 69% in, it’s worth noting that Dem primary votes (so far) are outpacing the GOP by about 2600.

11:45PM: 58% reporting in AZ-05, and Schweikert leads Bitter Smith by 31-28. And with two thirds of the vote counted in AZ-01, Hay is clinging to her 3.9% lead.

11:37PM: 64% in, and Hay leads by 3.9%. On the flipside, Kirkpatrick has a 21-point lead over Titla.

11:31PM: I guess it’s the mandated time for a ganja break in Arizona.

11:22PM: Over in AZ-05, Club For Growth nutcase Dave Schweikert is leading Susan Bitter Smith by tight 32-28 margin with 36% in.

11:21PM: Now it’s 39-35 for Hay with 57% reporting.

11:20PM: Taking a look at the AZ SoS, Hay leads Livingston by 40-36 with 48.5% of precincts reporting.

11:15PM: The trickle begins. With 13% reporting in AZ-01, Ann Kirkpatrick has a 35-point lead on Howard Shanker; on the GOP side of the aisle, Sydney Hay leads Sandra Livingstone by only a 40-33 margin. Nothing from AZ-05 yet.

10:33PM ET: We most likely won’t see any returns until another 30 minutes or so. Hang tight.

Remember this guy? When we last checked in with Captain Charisma, a.k.a. Dr. Stephen Porter, the twice-failed Democratic congressional candidate had renounced his party and embarked on a quixotic campaign against GOP Rep. Phil English as an independent.

One petition challenge later…

An independent candidate for Congress does not have enough valid signatures on his nomination petitions to have his name on the November ballot, a state judge ruled.

Senior Commonwealth Court Judge James R. Kelley ruled Tuesday that 1,542 of the more than 3,200 signatures Steven Porter collected were invalid because Porter helped some voters fill out his nomination petitions. Porter needed 2,171 valid signatures to be on the ballot.

Porter is vowing to soldier on as a write-in candidate. Good luck with that, sir.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: PolitickerPA.com)

I got the following e-mail this afternoon, since I signed up for e-mails from Oliver’s campaign.

Dear [my name],

With just over 60 days until the General Election on November 4th, 2008, the Oliver for US Congress Campaign is at full speed.  We have been talking to people throughout Congressional District 1 and learning about their lives, their struggles, and where they want and need to see improvements in this great state.

As I am sure many of you know, Hurricane Gustav made landfall yesterday in the Gulf Coast.  Gustav hit just after the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s destruction of New Orleans three (3) years ago.  After Hurricane Katrina hit, I traveled south with one of my employees, Ashley Theil, and one of my sisters, Julie Luna.  For several days, we assisted displaced victims at the FEMA site near the Houston Astrodome.  We were able to connect the victims with housing providers and placed over 400 families in less than 10 days.  We did this by:

   * Assessing the needs of each resident based upon their prior housing situation.  For example: if an elderly person had been living in an elderly facility, we worked to house that person in a similar elderly facility.

   * Using our national housing connections to open doors.

   * Providing maps.  The FEMA site did not have maps available for the displaced families.  These maps helped displaced families know where they were going to live, and what schools, stores, and churches were in the area.

   * Connecting church buses with elderly citizens and families who arrived at the FEMA site with nothing – some in wheelchairs and night clothes.  We worked overtime to get the displaced families to the places where people were waiting to help them.

There were a few families I cannot forget, like the teacher and entrepreneur husband with 2 children, and their teenage son who worked at McDonald’s in New Orleans.  They lost everything they had — this proud father was holding back tears when he was trying to figure out what to do for his family.  It was my honor to do my part and connect them with a temporary home until they got a place to start over, but there was no way we could do enough.

There was another woman who had 9 children.  We lost track of this woman on the first day and found out that she and her children slept on the street that night because the shelter was full.  We were finally able to get her housed, but the children will always have those memories of sleeping on the street, among other horrible memories from that disaster.

I felt the obligation to offer my expertise during one of our nation’s greatest human crises and I was honored to be able to do so.  This need and desire to help is an absolute product of my upbringing as a proud Oklahoman.  I was raised to believe that you always help others, no exceptions.  Many of my fellow Oklahomans were deeply affected by Katrina.  Many went above and beyond to help, but unfortunately, we were all sad to see that our elected officials let us down.

Rest assured that as a product of the Great State of Oklahoma, I will always make sure that we take the lead and offer charity when it is needed, but do so in a responsible and accountable manner.

Warm Regards,

Georgianna W. Oliver

To contribute to the Oliver for US Congress campaign, please click here.  Any amount is appreciated.

So yeah.  Just in case anyone was interested in this race.

Maybe I should sign up for race updates from a bunch of other under-the-radar races.  Suggestions, anyone?  (Or are people just going to point me back to my gigantic list of races…heh…)

CQ Politics breaks the news

This is absolutely wonderful and welcome news.  Wayne Gilchrest was one of the few non-insane Republicans in the House, who was taken out in a primary a few months back by one of the typically right right right wingers.  Well, it looks like he cares more about his country than about his party (as I said, he is one of the very few non-insane Republicans).

Our candidate in Maryland’s first district is Frank Kratovil Jr., and with this somewhat unexpected support from Mr. Gilchrest, one of only two Republicans in the House not to support the war, this might end up being yet another winnable race!

“For the 18 years I have been honored to represent the 1st District in Congress, I have always tried to make decisions based on principle rather than partisanship or politics,” Gilchrest said in his prepared remarks at the beginning of a conference call with reporters from the state capital of Annapolis.

He continued, “This decision is no different. I admire Frank’s integrity and independence. He will continue the moderate tradition of Maryland’s Eastern Shore.”

Excellent news all around today.

Public Policy Polling (8/25-27, likely voters, 7/2-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 39 (36)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 44 (43)

Thomas Hill (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Hayes still maintains the edge, on account of his strength among Democrats (19% to Kissell’s 69%), Republicans (83-8) and Independents (43-27). But he’s still well under 50%, and there are ominous signs up the ballot in this R+3 district: Kay Hagan is leading Dole by 45-41 in the state’s U.S. Senate race, and Obama and McCain’t are tied at 43% each.

This one is gonna be a slugfest.

The DSCC is up with their first ads of the general election cycle (to the best of my knowledge) in Minnesota and New Hampshire.

The MN-Sen ad, “Running Man”:

And the NH-Sen ad, “Choice”:

The Minnesota piece, which mimics the style of a TV spot for an upcoming film, is pretty cleverly-made. The first of many more to come, I’m sure.

The NRSC also has their own ad up in New Hampshire. You can view it here.

The following diary discusses whom is behind the campaigns to pass and defeat every single one of Oregon’s ballot measures this fall.  It discusses who is funding them and what their political leanings are.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Data from: ORESTAR

Measure Summary:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Who’s Involved?:

Note: I am doing this down here because some groups support/oppose multiple measures and so it’s simpler to do it this way.  Also note that the person listed as “leading” each group is simply the treasurer of the committee.

Committee to Protect Local Control of Schools-No on 58-led by known Democratic Activist Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Defend Oregon-Yes on 56 and 57, No on 58-64, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $500k.

Expenditures: $620k.

COH: -$120k.

Largest Contributor: Oregon State Council of Service Employees-$455k.

Don’t Pay to the Test-No on 60, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Don’t Silence our Voice-No on 64, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

No Way to Fight Crime-No on 61, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Oregon Anti-Crime Alliance PAC, No on 57, Yes on 61 and 62, led by Kevin Mannix (R):

Contributions: $76k.

Expenditures: $60k.

COH: $16k.

Largest Contributor: Loren Parks, a crazy “sex therapist” originally from Oregon, now lives in Vegas-$75k.

Oregonians Against Unfair Elections, No on 65, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $2,250.

Expenditures: $1,500.

COH: $750.

Largest Contributor: Loan from PacWest Communications-$2,250.

Oregonians Against Unsafe Housing, No on 63, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $150k.

Expenditures: $10k.

COH: $140k.

Largest Contributor: Barnes Labor Management Cooperative Committee-$100k.

PAC 483, No on 59 and 64, led by Donna Bandeen, a longtime D activist:

Contributions: $9k.

Expenditures: $500.

COH: $8.5k.

Largest Contributor: Portlanders for Accountability (a union-backed group formed to fight changes to Portland’s city charter last year)-$5k.

The Better Way to Fight Crime Commitee, Yes on 57, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Voting Matters, Yes on 56, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Vote Yes on 65 Make Every Voter Count, Yes on 65, led by Michael Greenfield, a management consultant, minimal COH.

Let me know what you think.  There may be other groups, the Taxpayer Association of Oregon for one has yet to officially jump in, but this is it for now.