Swing State Project

We all know that Texas will likely go red on election night and deliver her electoral votes to John McCain. Many of us also know that Dallas County was, for many years, the heart of the Republican takeover of the Lone Star State. Things began changing two years ago when Democrats swept county office races with the help of voter dissatisfaction and a kickass GOTV operation. Now, you might think that, in a presiential year, Dallas Democrats might be on defense, but not so. According to the Dallas Morning News, no less that four Republican judges have either leaft the Republican Party, or are preparing to leave.

As Texas Republicans gather for their national convention, GOP members back in Dallas are preparing to bolt the party.

Monday, Dallas County Court at Law Judge Mark Greenberg plans to announce at a Democratic Party Labor Day picnic that he’s leaving the Republican Party, said people from both parties familiar with his decision. The judge, who next faces re-election in 2010, could not be reached.

At least two other judges are expected to leave the GOP before November.

“They are looking at the numbers and the demographics and realizing that they can’t win by running as Republicans,” said Darlene Ewing, chairwoman of the Dallas County Democratic Party.

Last week, Dallas County Republicans lost another when county Criminal Court Judge Elizabeth Crowder said she’s switching to the Democrats.

It’s the latest political shift since the 2004 elections, when Democrats started to make inroads in county offices held firmly by Republicans since the Reagan years.

Since last year, five Republicans have defected, including state District Judge John Creuzot, who presides over the county’s felony courts, and state Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie. Judge Creuzot and Mr. England face Republican opposition in November.

There is a debate in political circles as to whether partisan change begins at the top or the bottom. Some argue that people first start voting for a particular party at the top of the ticket and eventually work their way down. Others contend that it begins on the local level and works its way up as lower-tier recruits run for office.

In the South, people started voting Republican for president, but still elected Democrats to Congress and local office. At the same time, local politicians started chaging their affiliation from Democrat to Republican before climbing their way to the top. In Texas, it’s beginning at the local level. County Republicans in Dallas and Harris Counties are reading the hadwriting on the wall and understand that voters are losing faith in their ability to govern. As a matter of fact, Barack Obama’s ativities in Texas are not about winning the state, but helping Democrats build on the gains they made in the State House and perhaps even take it over.

It’s slow, painstaking work. Winning judgeships is not as exciting as winning a senate seat, but this is exactly how Karl Rove started the party takeover, and perhaps this is where we begin the long march back. My eyes are upon you, Texas.

A sweet score for Democrat Frank Kratovil:

Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest, ousted after nine terms in a bitter Republican primary campaign last winter, will cross party lines today to endorse Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. in the 1st Congressional District.

A senior member of Gilchrest’s staff confirmed yesterday that the veteran lawmaker – who earned a reputation as a staunch environmentalist who frequently clashed with Republican Party leaders – will join Kratovil, an Eastern Shore prosecutor, at appearances today in Annapolis and Easton.

Gilchrest succeeded for nearly a decade in the far-flung district, which covers the Eastern Shore and parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore counties, by tapping support from moderate Democrats and Republicans in general election wins.

Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by state Sen. Andy Harris, and has now done what seemed inevitable and endorsed the Democrat in the race. It’s a timely boost that gives Kratovil a fighting chance this November in this R+10 district.

(H/T: conspiracy)

UPDATE: Like clockwork, Kratovil is out with this new ad starring none other than Rep. Wayne Gilchrest:

The light at the end of the tunnel is upon us: the last batch of primaries occurs during the first few weeks of September. While there’s only one last good shot at bouncing an incumbent (LA-02), there is still a wide variety of tasty races in this smorgasbord.

September 2

AZ-01: As Rick Renzi looks forward to his golden years in prison retirement, there are battles on each side of the aisle to replace him. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick. There haven’t been any polls, but Kirkpatrick has thoroughly dominated the fundraising chase. Two of her opponents can’t be ruled out, though, especially given their connections to the Native American community (Natives make up nearly one-quarter of this district which encompasses much of rural Arizona, by far the most of any congressional district): environmental attorney Howard Shanker, who has often represented the tribes in court, and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, who as an Apache would be the first-ever Native American woman in Congress.

On the Republican side, ultra-conservative mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay somehow got stuck carrying the party’s flag after more prominent (and electable) recruits demurred. Hay’s fundraising has been sub-par, giving attorney/ex-State Dept. official Sandra Livingstone an opening to surprise her. The odds still favor Hay… which may favor the Dems this November, given Hay’s unlikeability, the narrow lean of the R+2 district, and the stench left behind by Renzi.

AZ-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell might have been endangered in this suburban R+4 district in a less Dem-friendly year, having drawn a slew of credible challengers in the Republican primary. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert seems to have the best shot, based on fundraising and having the largest constitutency. However, ex-city councilor Susan Bitter Smith, ex-state senator Laura Knaperek, ex-state representative Mark Anderson, and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury are all in this thing, and without a runoff, one of the lesser candidates could easily sneak by, if they have a more cohesive bloc.

September 6 (?)

LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.

The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.

LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.

The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.

September 9

DE-Gov: The main event in Delaware is the Democratic primary in the governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. (Either one is expected to coast in November, against retired judge Bill Lee.) Both seem like solid Dems; Carney is more associated with labor and party insiders, and Markell is considered more of a ‘fresh’ face, despite an endorsement from the DLC last year. This becomes more interesting when considering that the winner may be the one who appoints Joe Biden’s successor (although that could also be Ruth Ann Minner’s last act), and the gubernatorial loser may be the one who gets to be the next senator.

DE-AL: On paper, this should be a competitive race; at D+6, it’s the most Democratic-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (Mike Castle). Barring something weird happening, though, Castle will continue to occupy this seat for at least the next two years. This is worth mentioning mostly because this primary gets a lot of netroots focus; veterinarian and Kossack Jerry Northington is running, as well as ’06 independent candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle and accountant Mike Miller.

MN-Sen: Al Franken pretty much locked this nomination down long ago at the DFL convention, which is ordinarily the end game in Minnesota. However, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris is hanging around the margins, raising arguments about Franken’s electibility and otherwise trying to bleed him to death with paper cuts. Don’t look for Faris to come close to winning, but Franken’s numbers in the primary might help us gauge just how vulnerable he is to the whole ‘juicy porn’ line of attack in the general.

MN-01: There’s still a duel going on in this R+1 Rochester-based district for the right to get flattened by freshman Dem Tim Walz. State senator Dick Day seemed an early favorite for the GOP nomination, but Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has run an aggressive campaign well to the right of the affable Day, and with his sizable fundraising edge (much of which may be out of his own pocket) may shoot past Day. Either way, the nasty primary only serves to bolster Walz, who’s on the verge of securing this seat for good.

NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest Democratic upsets in the 2006 cycle, and with mediocre polling numbers, a desire to hold the DCCC at arm’s length, and a potential rematch against the narrowly-defeated ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, she may be one of this cycle’s most endangered Dem incumbents. However, the good news is that Bradley has been stumbling around in his own primary, against former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Director John Stephen. Stephen has been hitting the more moderate Bradley hard from the right, and has drawn even with him in fundraising. Both lag Shea-Porter’s cash stash (for a woman who hates to raise money, she sure raises money). Even if Bradley makes it through the primary, his empty wallet and mud-spattered suit will complicate efforts to retake this D+0 seat.

NH-02: Of the two new New Hampshire representatives from 2006, conventional wisdom has always viewed Paul Hodes as the safer one. Talk radio host Jennifer Horn is the challenger who’s probably drawn the most attention from the rest of the right-wing punditsphere (gee, I wonder why?), and she leads the fundraising chase. State senator Bob Clegg and former congressional aide Grant Bosse are still in the mix. Between the seat’s D+3 lean and Hodes’ huge cash advantage, though, any of them are likely to be no more than a speed bump for Hodes (as seen by our recent upgrade of this race to Safe Dem).

NY-10: At D+41, in this mostly African-American seat in Brooklyn, the primary is the main event. Edolphus Towns, who has held this seat since 1982, survived a three-way challenge in 2006, giving him the whiff of vulnerability. (Indeed, he’s seen stiff primary fights in other years as well.) This year, he faces another spirited challenge, this time from writer and community organizer Kevin Powell (best known for playing the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World back in 1992). Towns has survived higher-profile challenges before, but with his checkered past (voting for bankruptcy reform and CAFTA, snuggling up to black Republican J.C. Watts) and Powell’s celebrity-fueled run, this is one to watch.

NY-13: This race has been an SSP staple since May. Rather than give you a blow-by-blow recap, I’ll simply redirect anyone not familiar with this race to SSP’s Timeline of GOP Disasters, as this race seems to make up a large portion of that epic work. Starting with Vito Fossella’s retirement upon his admission of his affair and love child, the GOP has with each subsequent incident fallen deeper and deeper into a rabbit hole of embarrassing absurdity.

As it stands, there is still an ostensibly competitive primary on each side of the aisle in this D+1 seat. On the Dem side, city councilor Mike McMahon is poised to win over attorney Steve Harrison. (McMahon is considered more conservative than Harrison, and Harrison has the advantage of being the ’06 candidate, but McMahon has the gigantic advantage of being from Staten Island, unlike Brooklynite Harrison, which is key in this parochial SI-based district.) McMahon has a large cash edge and DCCC backing.

On the GOP side, after every credible candidate (and some incredible ones as well) passed on the race, we’re down to a primary between Manhattan resident Robert Straniere (always referred to as “ex-Assemblyman/hot dog restauranteur”) and Jamshad “Jim” Wyne, treasurer of the Staten Island GOP. Both Straniere and Wyne are widely detested, have no money, and to make matters worse (for them), are now bashing each other incessantly.

NY-21: This race is a little reminiscent of CO-02: a big slate of liberal Democrats vying to take over a safe Democratic (D+9) seat being vacated by long-timer Mike McNulty. There are at least four credible candidates here: ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko, former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks, Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, and former congressional aide Darius Shahinfar. Steck received the endorsement of the Albany County Democratic Committee, but Tonko seems to have a big edge in name recognition, based on an internal poll giving him a sizable lead. Tonko has key labor endorsements such as the SEIU; Brooks has the NOW endorsement; Steck and Shahinfar are endorsers of the Responsible Plan. In other words, we have four pretty solid progressives; just pick the flavor you like.

NY-26: This R+3 open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, left vacant when Tom Reynolds decided to hit the eject button, looked to present one more easy pickup for the New York Dems. Charismatic Iraq War vet Jon Powers quickly moved to grab the endorsement of all the Democratic Party organizations in each county. However, there’s one huge obstacle between Powers and the nomination: crazy tycoon Jack Davis, who, with his single-minded focus on fair trade and illegal immigrants, was possibly the only person who could have wrested defeat from the jaws of victory against Reynolds in 2006 at the height of the Mark Foley scandal. Davis, if you’ll recall, was the vanquisher of the Millionaire’s Amendment, freeing him to spend willy-nilly to buy this race. He was last heard from worrying about how immigrants will lead to the Second Civil War.

Although Powers has been a strong fundraiser, Davis has still been outspending Powers lately, purely out of his own pocket, and pummeling Powers over the alleged inefficacy of Powers’ charitable efforts for Iraqi kids. Either outcome doesn’t look good: Davis buying the primary and being cannon fodder in the general against the well-funded and uncontroversial Republican businessman Chris Lee, or a wounded and depleted Powers staggering into the general. (There’s a third candidate, “environmental” lawyer Alice Kryzan, but it doesn’t seem she has enough of a base to sneak unnoticed past the other two.)

Voters in Louisiana were set to head to the polls for their state’s primary elections this Saturday, but with Hurricane Gustav hitting the Gulf Coast, it’s looking like the primaries could be delayed by a week:

Although Louisiana election officials said Monday that they aren’t optimistic about being able to hold the state’s primaries on Saturday as scheduled, no official decision is expected until after Hurricane Gustav moves out of Louisiana later this week.

Even though the storm made landfall with less intensity than originally expected on Monday, it still had the potential to wreak widespread damage across Louisiana. And even if the storm dissipates quickly, the mass evacuations that took place in coastal areas would make it tough to hold an election by Saturday in several districts.

“Sept. 6 does not look likely,” said Jacques Berry, spokesman for Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R). Berry said that as of Monday afternoon, Dardenne had not made any official recommendation about postponing the election to Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), who has the power to make that decision.

Obviously everyone’s first concern is the safety of lives and property (and on that score, Gustav so far seems mercifully tamer than most expected), but we’ll also be keeping an eye on the evacuation’s impacts on the state’s primary schedule. Stay tuned.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R): 56

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Alright, on its face, those are some nasty and disappointing numbers. They’re also way out of line with all the polls we’ve seen of this race so far; internal polls released from both the Bright and Love camps show a dramatically different race. Bright’s polling (by Anzalone-Liszt, a firm with a hot streak this year) from earlier this month showed the Democrat leading by 10 points, and Love’s latest poll from late July showed the Republican leading by a mere two points. A Capital Survey Research Center poll from earlier this month also showed Bright leading by ten points.

So what gives? The poll’s innards give us a big clue. While Alabama’s 2nd CD is 30% African-American, SUSA has pegged the black vote at only 16% of the survey’s sample. Now, I’m not sure what pollsters like Anzalone, CSRC, or even McLaughlin peg the black vote at, but do we really think that the African-American vote is going to be that depressed this year?

Bright wins the black vote by 82-11, and Love wins the white vote by 66-30. If you re-weight this poll to bring the black vote up to 30%, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-46. That’s still a much brighter picture for Love since the early August polls, but it’s unclear what’s happened since then that would boost his numbers so dramatically (ALFA and the peanut farmers endorsing him?), especially given that Bright got a big boost from Dothan GOP Mayor Pat Thomas’ endorsement a week before this poll was in the field.

I like SUSA’s work a lot, but I suspect they’ve made a misfire here.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Mumpower overload:

The son of Asheville City Council member and Republican congressional candidate Carl Mumpower was involved in a fight Thursday night in Asheville.

Matt Mumpower, 24, who worked for his dad, has stepped down from the campaign.

“He is no longer with us,” Carl said.

Matt was at the Wild Wings Cafe just after midnight when Chris Roberts of Candler allegedly “danced up on him in a mocking fashion,” according to the incident report.

In an interview with the Times-News on Friday, Matt said he was “shocked” at Roberts’ actions and pushed him away. Roberts allegedly came back and Matt “struck him with a closed fist in the head/face,” according to the report.

And so ends another storied day for the legendary campaign of Carl Mumpower. Sadly, police report jargon-ese has limited us to just the phrase “danced up on him in a mocking fashion.” I turn it over to you, dear readers, to speculate on exactly what this means. Prizes for most creative entry in comments.*

(Note: No prizes to actually be awarded.)

VoteVets, which produced last cycle’s amazing body armor ads, released this ad hitting Susan Collins for her obeisance to George Bush on Iraq:

Predictably, Collins’s campaign flipped out, denouncing the ad as somehow unfair:

Spokesman Kevin Kelley said the ad is false, noting legislation Collins sponsored that shifts the costs of reconstruction projects to the Iraqis.

“The ad that is currently airing on Maine television stations ignores Senator Collins’ efforts to change the mission in Iraq and to force the Iraqis to pay more of the costs of securing and rebuilding their own country,” a press release from the Collins campaign stated.

Sorry, even if we graded this an “E” for effort, meekly trying (and failing) to apply a few band-aids to the mess she’s created does not get Collins off the hook. Collins had a little more success, though, in browbeating Democrat Tom Allen to denounce this ad, too:

“Tom Allen is the only candidate to denounce false, negative tv and radio ads by third parties. He knows there is too much at stake for outsiders to disrupt the conversation he is having with Mainers on the important issues of energy, health care, the economy and Iraq,” Andrews wrote in a release.

Jesus Christ. This ad is eminently reasonable – for Allen to attack it is just ridiculous. But taking orders from Susan Collins is far worse. When you let Republicans boss you around, you wind up looking pathetically weak. And if Tom Allen really thinks that going after a left-wing organization will inspire the right-wing groups currently blasting him over his support of the Employee Free Choice Act to back down, then he’s sadly mistaken.

Lot’s of internal polls to digest in recent days. Let’s kill ’em all in one post.

FL-13:

Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (8/23-24, likely voters, July in parens and 3/5-6 in brackets):

Christine Jennings (D): 30 (30) [37]

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 48 (44) [53]

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Woof. That’s not a spread that I like to see, but at least Buchanan is under 50%. After being hit by a new lawsuit every week for the past month and a half (or so) on allegations of consumer fraud and illegal campaign fundraising, Buchanan’s camp released this poll to ensure folks that everything is hunky-dory. We haven’t seen numbers from this race from any other source than Buchanan’s campaign, so I’m inclined to believe these ballpark figures. However, with so many legal headaches, I wouldn’t say that Buchanan is out of the woods yet.

FL-21:

Hill Research Associates for Lincoln Diaz-Balart (6/19-22, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 36

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Diaz-Balart pumped out this somewhat moldy poll in an attempt to refute a recent SUSA poll showing Martinez leading D-B the Lesser by two. Given that a Bendixen poll of this race from June showed Martinez trailing only by four points, I’m inclined to believe that the numbers are much tighter than Diaz-Balart’s cherry-picked poll suggests.

IL-18:

Public Opinion Strategies for Aaron Schock (8/18-20, likely voters):

Colleen Callahan (D): 27

Aaron Schock (R): 56

Sheldon Schafer (G): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Ugh. Crazy Aaron Schock doesn’t deserve this.

PA-10:

Momentum Analysis for Christopher Carney (8/19-21, likely voters):

Christopher Carney (D-inc): 54

Chris Hackett (R-inc): 27

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I dunno, dudes. SurveyUSA also recently tested this R+8 district, and found Carney only holding a 49-45 lead. I’m a little more inclined to believe that this race is closer to SUSA’s estimate than Carney’s poll, but I still feel pretty good about his chances.

This week, I had the opportunity to participate with my fellow 5th district candidates in a forum sponsored by WPSU TV to discuss job creation and economic conditions in the 5th Congressional District.  As we fielded questions on the various issues, I paid close attention to how my views on job creation and retention along with overall economic development strategy differed from my opponents.   What I heard from my Republican opponent was numerous statements about “incentives” and “tax credits” to entice businesses to locate or expand in the 5th district.  

When government provides “incentives” they give funding to a business through grants / loans, while “tax credits” grant certain exemptions that allow a business to omit paying some taxes by writing off eligible expenses.  Regardless of what form they take, “incentives” spend federal government funds and “tax credits” decrease revenue coming to the federal government.   While this may be a reasonable plan when the federal government is fiscally strong with a surplus, it is impractical to suggest at a time when the federal budget has a $482 billion deficit and $9.6 trillion in debt is owed to foreign countries including the likes of China and Saudi Arabia.  

Throughout this campaign, I have made the case to the voters in the 5th district the federal government cannot help revive our failing economy, much less deal with other important domestic issues, until the federal budget is balanced, a surplus is growing and the debt to foreign nations is paid down.   It is irresponsible when a candidate for federal office proposes creating new “incentives” or offering “tax credits” to corporate America while we have record deficits and debt at the federal level.   Sadly, this is more of the same failed fiscal policies we’ve seen during the last 8 years.

The same day as the WPSU forum, the Centre Daily Times printed a story about the recent unemployment rates released by the PA Department of Labor and Industry.  Throughout the 5th Congressional District, unemployment and economic conditions are some of the worst in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.   In fact, the 2 counties with the highest unemployment rates in the state were here in the 5th district with Cameron County at 7.6% and Forest County at 8.4%.   Perhaps even more troubling was the fact that 15 of the 17 counties in the 5th district are above 5% unemployment with the only exceptions being Warren County just slightly under at 4.8% and Centre County at 4.2%.

Not only do we have the highest unemployment rates, but the US Census Bureau reports that median family incomes in the 5th district are, on average, almost $12,000 less than the rest of the nation.   The US Census Bureau — 2006 American Community Survey lists the Median Family Income for the 5th Congressional District of Pennsylvania at $46,863 versus the U.S. average of $58,526.   Worse yet, while we are averaging significantly less in income than other areas of the country, we are paying the same rising costs for food, gas, energy, automobiles, clothes and other necessities that we need in daily life.  During the WPSU forum the issue of young people leaving the 5th district after graduating from high school and college was discussed.   It is obvious the difference in income levels plays a huge role in the departure of our young people from rural central Pennsylvania.

Of course, the question still remains, how do we create jobs, lower record unemployment rates and increase income levels in the 5th Congressional District and spur the economy at the national level?   The federal government isn’t going to fix this for us because they don’t have the financial resources to do so.   The time has come for certain sacrifices to be made by those who have profited in recent years.  

We need our business leaders to realize there are no more handouts for them if they are running a profitable business.   Too often, businesses on solid financial ground want the government to provide incentives and tax credits before they will expand and create new jobs.  We need corporate America to voluntarily reinvest their profits to rebuild our nation’s economy without the expectation of incentives and tax credits.  

And to the wealthiest citizens, the time has come to stop complaining if you have to pay a little more in taxes to get us out of the fiscal mess from the last 8 years.  To accomplish this, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans must expire as scheduled in 2011.  Once we get the fiscal mess straightened out, then a new set of tax cuts for poor and middle class, roughly 90% of the working population, can be put in place.

At the federal government level, a strong, stable fiscal policy that balances budgets, builds surpluses, pays down the debt and stops borrowing from foreign governments will eventually allow the federal government to get back to supporting economic development and job creation.   This can only be accomplished if voters send fiscally responsible people to represent them in Washington.  Contrast my message of fiscal responsibility to that of my opponent who continues to voice support for failed fiscal policies that will continue to threaten our national security through higher deficits and more debt to foreign sources.

2008 Continues to be Historic

When I decided to enter the race for the US Congress, I did so with a slight thought in the back of my mind that, in some small way, I might be involved in an election that was historic.   Now, with September upon us and just over 2 months until Election Day, it is obvious that history will be made in 2008.  We could see the first African American elected President of the United States in Barack Obama, whom I support,  or we could see the first woman elected Vice President in Sarah Palin (as part of the McCain ticket, I’m not so excited about that prospect).  At the DNC Convention in Denver, the speech by Barack Obama on Thursday was one of the greatest presentations I’ve ever watched.  He was flawless in his presentation and he showed the country and the world that he is the strong, articulate leader we need to solve the problems facing our country.  

And the announcement on Friday by Senator John McCain that his choice for a running mate was the first term Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin was a gutsy call to say the least.   It will be interesting to watch the rest of the campaign and learn more about Governor Palin.  

Happy Labor Day and Prayers for the Gulf Coast.

On behalf of the McCracken for Congress campaign, I want to offer a Happy Labor Day to the working people in the 5th district.  People in rural Pennsylvania are known for their strong work ethic.   All they ask for in return is a fair wage and benefits that will allow them to care for their families and put food on the table.

Finally, we all need to be sending our prayers to the people and communities on the Gulf Coast as Hurricane Gustav moves across the Gulf of Mexico.  We never want to see a replay of the destruction and despair that we saw during Hurricane Katrina.

Please help in any way you can to help the residents of the Gulf. You can donate to the Red Cross at this link:

http://american.redcross.org/s…

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Ashwin Madia (D): 41

Erik Paulsen (R): 44

Other: 10

(MoE: ±4.0%)

These numbers are pretty much the spitting image of a GQR internal poll conducted for state Sen. Terri Bonoff earlier this year. In that poll, Paulsen was leading Madia by 43-40.

While GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad held this district with ease for many years, it’s a tightly-contested district on the presidential level. In 2004, Bush edged Kerry by three points here, and in SUSA’s polling, Obama is squeaking past McCain here by 48-46.

One finding from SUSA’s crosstabs is pretty, well, unique:

Despite the fact that Obama is 47 years old and Madia is just in his 30s, it was Republican candidates who had the slight edge among younger voters in the district. Among voters 18-49, Paulsen led Madia, 45 percent to 38 percent. Madia was preferred by voters 50 and older, 44 percent to 42 percent.

The same trend held true in the presidential matchup. McCain led among the younger set of voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, while Obama was ahead among those 50 and older, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Madia has just gone up on the airwaves with a soft introductory ad, but it’s worth pointing out the incredibly frenzied fundraising pace of both Madia and GOP state Rep. Erik Paulsen. This one could be a tight battle all the way to the finish line.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.