Swing State Project

Things have changed around a little bit in my Senate rankings. But instead of an analysis of which seats are more likely or less likely to switch from red to blue, it has simply become now just a matter of which seats are more likely to flip.

1. Virginia: No Change. There is just nothing more to say here than Mark Warner gave a very senatorial speech last Tuesday night.

2. New Mexico: Pearce has stronger Republican backing which was reflected in recent polling. Too little too late, it’s in the bag.

3. Alaska: This one moves up from fifth place. Stevens was already in enough trouble prior to the indictment, but now he’s doomed. Now that he won the primary, exoneration, removal from the ballot or Palin’s selection can save the Republicans now.

4. New Hampshire: No change. Shaheen’s continued strong showing in polls tells me there is a deep dissatisfaction with Sununu that goes beyond the Republican brand. I’m not sure even McCain can save him now.

5. Colorado: Previously third. Even though Shaffer seems to be on his feet now, the only reason that this race dropped is the fact that Republicans grew so much weaker in Alaska and New Hampshire. Colorado will be hard fought on all levels, but Mark Udall remains the favorite.

6. Oregon: No change. The fact that Gordon Smith has attached himself so closely to Obama tell me that his polling is showing a very strong blue trend. Will he be washed out? Stay tuned.

7. Minnesota: Al Franken is showing signs of life. He’s pounding away on Norm Coleman and it’s taking effect.

8. North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole is showing the political community that she has a glass jaw. Never before in her life did she have to fight for anything and got by against a weak opponent in 2002. Kay Hagan is no wilting flower and the DSCC is putting up the cash to back her up.

9. Mississppi B: What does it say about this year when the top 9 seats on my list are true pickup opportunities for us? Republicans are fighting deep in red territory now and even though Musgrove has faded a bit, this one is going right down to the wire.

10. Kentucky: McConnell knows he is in for a race.

After looking over these seats, I am now revising my projection to a net gain of 6-8 seats.

Studious readers of the Swing State Project know that we keep daily tabs on House race independent expenditures in our IE tracker. But now that election season truly is in full swing, we’ll also be rounding up the money spent in the last seven days by the party committees and independent groups each Sunday night on the front page.

NARPAC is the National Association of Realtors’ political arm. More often than not, they support Republicans, but on occasion they spend cash to defend a Democratic incumbent (such as Melissa Bean in 2006). Looks like Paul Kanjorski is getting the Bean treatment this year.

While the NRCC can’t afford to engage in any real spending just yet, the DCCC is using their head start to ramp up the negatives of Republican candidates in key open seat races — a “kill ’em in the crib” approach, if you will.

For more specific details, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure tracker.

The following is a brief summary of whom the Oregon Republican delegates are that are supposedly going to Minneapolis/St. Paul this week for their convention.  Obviously, I send along my most fervent prayers (even though I’m a Unitarian) for the victims of Hurricane Gustav not only those in the US who are yet to be hit but those throughout the Caribbean.  Still, they should at least nominate McSame and I thought it would be fun to discover who these people are.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

I will admit that I know more about the McCain delegates than the Ron Paul ones so bear with me.  Where I don’t know much and can’t find much I write “political activist”.  These profiles ARE slanted and so I am a bit aggressive perhaps (like calling people xenophobes) in the name of fun….

Statewide McCain:

Bob Avery — Junction City-Legislative Assistant to State House Minority Leader Bruce Hanna (R).

Russ Walker — Keizer-Head of Oregon FreedomWatch, Oregon’s own Grover Norquist spinoff.

Tim Nashif — Portland-Leader of the yes on Measure 36 (Gay Marriage Ban) campaign in 2004.

Gregory Wooldridge — Portland-Former Naval Officer and head of OR Veterans for McCain.  You may remember him because he was a front person for McSame in the Wesley Clark response.

Donna Cain — Rogue River-Republican party fundraiser and fake PUMA (she gave $225 to HRC early this year according to Open Secrets).

Kevin Mannix — Salem-Former multiple-statewide loser and mandatory minimum activist.

Marylin Shannon — Brooks-Former State Senator, current leader of an organization that just tried to overturn Oregon’s new domestic partnership and equal rights for GLBT laws…

Jeffery A. Grossman — Beaverton-Drill, drill drill activist and software security specialist.

Ron Paul At Large Delegates

Elaine Smith — Prairie City-Attorney.

Ivan Cermak — Selma-Political Activist.

Keith Kaiser — Wilsonville-Political activist.

Marc Lucca — Stayton-Former state rep candidate and legislative aide.  (Personal Note: When I worked in the legislature I worked next to the office he was then working for, he’s a good guy if really conservative).

Congressional District 1 Delegates

James L. Ellison — Portland-Political Activist.

Sherri L. Grossman — Beaverton-Schools activist, believes strongly that modern society is breaking down the “family unit”.

Barbara Tennent Anderson — Portland-Political Activist.

Congressional District 2 Delegates

Jeannetta Garner — Nyssa-2nd District OR GOP Leader.

Ron Maurer — Grants Pass-State Rep.

Dennis Tooley — Redmond-Member of Board of Directors for Dorchester (OR GOP annual conference).

Congressional District 3 Delegates

Linda Flores — Clackamas-St. Rep/Anti-immigrant activist.

Jay Kushner — Portland-Multiple time loser candidate in deep blue Portland.

James Anderson — Troutdale-GOP Fundraier.

Congressional District 4 Delegates

Nina Avery — Junction City-Former Campaign Worker for Jim Feldkamp (who lost OR-4 to DeFazio in 2004 and 2006).

Jeff Osanka — Eugene-Neighborhood Activist in the Fairmont neighborhood in Eugene.

Melyssa Swartz-Baxter — Eugene-Wife of a soldier who was injured by an IED in Iraq.

Congressional District 5 Delegates

Wayne Brady — Salem-Retired Aerospace Engineer and regular contributor to multiple OR conservative blogs….

Greg Leo — Aurora-Parks activist (as in actually pro-Parks).

Andrea Hofmann — Keizer-Oregon Federation of Republican Women Leader.

Automatic Delegates

Vance Day — Salem-State Party Chair.

June Hartley — Nyssa-Committeewoman.

Solomon Yue — Salem-Committeeman.

A sampling of some of the latest House race TV ads jamming the tubes:

Why doesn’t the DCCC put out ads against all 3 Florida Congressmen? The Orlando market covers Districts 7, 8 and 24, so they would kill three birds with one ad.

According to the NRCC, no Republican District is safe this year. All three Florida Congressmen are corrupt, so let’s kick them all out this year.

www.actblue.com/page/fayeforcongress

Donate now to help put more progressives in Congress.

As many know, we have been facing an uphill battle all along in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. Ed Whitfield has huge special interest money, and has the Mitch McConnell machine of Corruption firmly behind him. These people are used to getting their way. They are addicted to, and obsessed with the power, and money that comes with their postions.  

Despite the fact that things have worked out real good for Exxon Eddie, and Mitch McConnell, little has been achieved in their tenure for the people of Western Kentucky. High-paying jobs are lost, income is down, and the high prices of everything are pinching our citizens to the point of giving up many luxuries they once enjoyed.

Yes, we are a mouse fighting a gorilla, but knowing our neighbors are hurting drives us on. That is what the Ryan for Kentucky campaign is about. It is about everyday, educated, compassionate citizens wanting a chance to fight for the people we live among, and better their lot in this life.

You know, one thing Republicans, and Exxon Ed Whitfield are trying to use against us is the character of our candidate. Well, I would like to speak on that myself. Our candidate served her nation honorably and proudly. Our candidate is educated in politics and government. Our candidate has many shining qualities that are required to govern as a Representative of the people of this district.

First, our candidate has courage. She knew she would be victim of the multi-million dollar meat grinder that is the McConnell, and Whitfield machine in Kentucky. She had the courage to stand up to two of the most powerful men in Kentucky and speak truth to their power. When no other candidate in this district had the courage to stand up to this, she made sure we would not concede our homes. I am proud to be fighting next to this fine young American because she is fighting like no other candidate in this election cycle that I know.

Our candidate has compassion. She cares about her community because she lives among us as a neighbor and friend, and feels the same pain we do as our district is neglected. She offers her efforts and talents to those who are less fortunate than her. She realizes we are all human, we all make mistakes, and we all deserve to improve ourselves in this life. To her, that is the American way.

Contrast this to our opponent, Exxon Ed Whitfield and his staff. If they want to discuss character, I welcome that debate. These people are so drunk with power and wealth, they will do anything to keep it, and use it to block progress for the people they “represent”.

Yes, Exxon Eddie, lets talk character. The character of a Reprentative so obsessed with power, he will take money from someone, and keep it after the person is convicted of being a terrorist. The character of a man that is a millionaire, has his healthcare provided by us, yet still votes against healthcare for even American CHILDREN, who can’t afford the luxuries we provide him.

The character that believes that women should not be compensated on the same level as men. Character that allows his staff to mock the efforts of opponents raising money for battered women and children. The character that votes against veterans benefits and healthcare, while he blindly votes with a Partisan President to send them foolishly to the wrong war. Character that votes to weaken ethics rules for himself in the body that he serves.

This character bleeds down to all those that serve under him. Although they have over a million dollars in their campaign account, his staff sees fit to trash the First Amendment and steal and destroy our hand-painted campaign sings, and some of the precious few ones we had printed. What kind of character does a campaign exhibit when they would rob fellow citizens of their right to free speech because they are so afraid of losing their strangle-hold on power and money?

I will tell everyone in this state, and this nation that I am so proud of Heather Ryan. Our campaign would never stoop to the levels of greed and hypocrisy that our opponents seem to revel in. While we will fight them on the issues, the direction of our district, and country, we will not be dragged into the foul idiocy they call “Moral Values”.

We will fight them and answer any challenge they issue. However, we will not sink to the level of denying our fellow citizens the right to express their opinions on who they support. We disagree strongly with Republicans on many things, but we will not infringe upon their God-given rights as Americans. Nothing to us is worth doing that, and if we have to trash the right of free speech and expression for our fellow citizens we will lose with dignity fighting for the vision we believe in, the vision of FDR and the Kennedy’s.

Yes, I am proud of Heather Ryan, and I an proud of her character, and the character of all of us who are fighting to give voice to this district. We all volunteered to do this because we love our country, state, and district and we feel they are all heading in the wrong direction, led by men like Exxon Ed Whitfield and Mitch McConnell. We will fight as Americans for the American way, and not as spoiled children who are afraid they are losing their coveted positions of wealth and power. We will fight the good fight, and if God determines we lose, we will at least be able to face him with our actions in doing so.

To me, that is the character we need to lead this country.

You can help us win this fight. Please consider doing so.

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…  

We all know that Information about State Legislature races are hard to find.  They are also very important to redistricting control of congress in 2012.  

Here I have listed all or most of Michigan’s State House of Representatives competitives races, as well as the candidates, most recent fundraising figures, and the partisan turnout from last month’s primary election.

I have also roughly rated the districts a tossup and leans.  Democrats are heavily favored to control the House, and they will likely gain several seats.  Here is a map of the Districts http://www.vcsnet.com/State.ph…  But just remember that there are 110 districts, of which the Democrats control 57.  The lower the district number, the closer the district is to Detroit.  The higher the number, the farther north.

Republican Seats Leaning Democrat

108th- (Open, Tom Casperson,R)

Judy Nerat (D) vs. Mike Falcon (R)

CTD- $10,172 vs. $20,192  COH- $6,099 vs. $7,542

Turnout- 67% Democrat, 33% Republican

39th- (Open, David Law,R)

Lisa Brown (D) vs. Amy Peterman (R)

CTD- $39,776 vs. $69,061  COH- $25,207 vs. $8,945

Turnout- 57% Democrat, 43% Republican

Republican Seats Tossup

62nd-  (Open, Mike Nofs, R)

Kate Segal (D) vs. Gregory Moore (R)

CTD- $56,394 vs. $25,064 COH- $43,837 vs. $12,325

Turnout- 53% Democrat,  47% Republican

61st- (Open, Jack Hoogendyk, R)

Julie Rogers (D) vs. Larry DeShazor (R)

CTD- $54,170 vs. $27,890  COH- $33,755 vs. $2,145

Turnout- 75% Republican,  25% Democrat

1st- (Open, Ed Gaffney, R)

Tim Bledsoe (D) vs. Mary Treder Lang (R)

CTD- $13,850 vs. $66,877 COH- $-6,638 vs.$6,273  

Turnout- 58% Democrat,  42% Republican

101st- (Open, David Palsrok, R)

Dan Scripps (D) vs. Ray Franz (R)

CTD- $92,686 vs. $30,258  COH- $29,296 vs. $2,459

Turnout-  77% Republican,  23% Democrat

78th-  (Open, Neal Nitz, R)

Judy Truesdell (D) vs. Sharon Tyler (R)

CTD- $39,439 vs. $36,629  COH- $26,186 vs. $5,711

Turnout-  79% Republican,  21% Democrat

70th-  (Open, Judy Emmons, R)

Mike Huckleberry (D) vs. Thomas Ginster (R)

CTD- $16,920 vs. $11,840  COH- $-996 vs. $3,720

Turnout-  82% Republican,  18% Democrat

24th-  (Open, Jack Brandenburg, R)

Sarah Roberts (D) vs. Brian Brandenburg (R)

CTD- $44,586 vs. $47,921  COH- $11,644 vs. 31,835

Turnout-  62% Democrat,  38% Republican

32nd-  (Open, Daniel Acciavatti, R)

Jennifer Haase (D) vs. John Acciavatti (R)

CTD- $28,991 vs. $18,444  COH- $18,836 vs. $4,401

Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

Republican Seats Leaning Republican

51st-  (Open, David Robertson, R)

Michael Thorp (D) vs. Paul Scott (R)

CTD- $13,415 vs. $137,549 COH- $1,799 vs. $22,225

Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

98th-  (Open, John Moolenaar, R)

Garnet Lewis (D) vs. Jim Stamas (R)

CTD- $75,579 vs. $49,509 COH- $39,350 vs. $15,045

Turnout-  66% Republican, 34% Democrat

97th-  (Tim Moore, R)

Kathy Wilton (D) vs. Tim Moore (R)

CTD- $0.00 vs. $59,590  COH- $0.00 vs. $36,719

Turnout-  59% Democrat, 41% Republican

21st-  (Open, Phillip LaJoy, R)

Dian Slavens (D) vs. Todd LaJoy (R)

CTD- $50,477 vs. $67,270 COH- $26,725 vs. $47,248

Turnout-  51% Republican, 49% Democrat

73rd-  (Tom Pearce, R)

Bruce Hawley (D) vs. Tom Pearce (R)

CTD- $30,179 vs. $21,515  COH- $22,545 vs. $5,527

Turnout-  80% Republican, 20% Democrat

Democrat Seats Tossup

106th-  (Open, Matt Gillard, D)

Andy Neumann (D) vs. Peter Pettalia (R)

CTD- $27,595 vs. $27,444  COH- $10,671 vs. $3,749

Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

65th- (Mike Simpson, D)

Mike Simpson (D) vs. Ray Snell (R)

CTD- $143,105 vs. $13,465 COH- $101,886 vs.$4,556

Turnout-  56% Republican, 44% Democrat

37th- (Open, Aldo Vagnozzi, D)

Vicki Barnett (D) vs. Paul Welday (R)

CTD- $45,608 vs. $60,883 COH- $32,118 vs. $34,506

Turnout-  50% Republican, 50% Democrat

Democrat Seats Leaning Democrat

23rd- (Open, Kathleen Law, D)

Deb Kennedy (D) vs. Neil DeBlois (R)

CTD- $19,859 vs. $14,845  COH- $7,077 vs. $4,787

Turnout-  66% Democrat,  34% Republican

20th- (Marc Courriveau, D)

Marc Courriveau (D) vs. Jerry Vorva (R)

CTD- $147,164 vs. $0.00  COH- $96,421 vs. $0.00

Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

91st- (Mary Valentine, D)

Mary Valentine (D) vs. Holly Hughes (R)

CTD-$146,002 vs. $81,921 COH- $102,681 vs.$55,711

Turnout-  62% Democrat, 38% Republican

75th- (Robert Dean, D)

Robert Dean (D) vs. Dan Tietema (R)

CTD- $80,004 vs. $34,834  COH- $31,430 vs. $7,455

Turnout-  63% Republican, 37% Democrat

84th- (Terry Brown, D)

Terry Brown (D) vs. Anna Kabot (R)

CTD- $57,086 vs. $6,215  COH- $47,586 vs.

Turnout-  73% Republican, 27% Democrat

It is no secret that Ed Whitfield has something againstchildren. However, even more intense is the hatred that Ed Whitfield holds towards women. Yes, even more shocking than the fact that Whitfield condones discrimination against women, are the views he and his staff apparently hold towards women and children that have been battered.

The proof is in the pudding so they say. When Heather Ryan pitched in to help battered women and children in our district, what does Whitfield and his campaign do? They mock them. Here is a video they put on YouTube of Heather Ryan reading an exerpt from the “Vagina Monologues” to help Merryman House, a charity in Western Kentucky that benefits battered women and children:

Here is some of the work they do:

http://www.mccunitedway.com/me…

Today, Heather sent me this email about the Whitfield campaign mocking her work for a non-profit charity that helps some of those that need it most in Western Kentucky:

My family was directly affected by domestic violence when my mom’s significant other punched her in the face and broke her cheekbone in three places when I was a teenager.  That was just one of the times he beat her.  That was just one of the times our family was torn apart by violence.  He swore he was sorry, he swore he would never do it again, until of course, he did.  

Domestic violence is a very serious issue that has effected me directly.  Ed Whitfield’s recent attacks on my character because I performed in the play, “The Vagina Monologues” as a benefit for the Merryman House Domestic Violence Shelter is a disgusting display of how low he will stoop in an attempt to ruin an opponent’s reputation at any cost.  As far as I’m concerned, these attacks are yet another form of abuse toward women.  I am not ashamed of the work I did to help end violence against women and I will never apologize for my compassion for battered women and children.  Instead, I will await notification from Mr. Whitfield’s campaign headquarters apologizing for their lack of judgement and stating that they made a gift to Merryman House Domestic Crisis Center, PO Box 98, Paducah, KY  42002.

You know, it seems to me that since Exxon Ed Whitfield is willing to give his money for other hate-filled Republican attacks:

Walker also noted Whitfield could use the disparity in fundraising to spread the wealth to other candidates, if his re-election campaign does not require them – a sign Ryan’s campaign may have some convincing to do.

“To the extent he has funding available, he may offer support to other candidates who share his

views on national issues and who may need financial support, but the primary purpose of his reelection campaign funds is to assist with his own reelection campaign,” said Walker.

http://www.politickerky.com/tr…

He would be more than happy to use a little of it to do some good for a change. So how about it Exxon Eddie? Why not help out some battered women and children, and help them better their lives, instead of mocking someone that cares about more than special interest money?

These attacks and thecriminal actions of his staff at Fancy Farm show this campaign for just what it is. Heartless Cowards, who care nothing about who or what they mock or attack, as long as they can keep their hands on the reigns of power and defeat Progress for those less fortunate than they are.

Please help us strike a blow at Whitfield, and his disgusting tacticts. Cable T.V. commercials run at around $6 a piece in this district. Can you pitch in $6 to help us run ads letting our district know just how vile this campaign is, and to what lengths they will stoop to win? I will put in the first $18 right now, can anyone match me?:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Lets show Exxon Eddie his disgusting attacks and tacticts are not appreciated by descent Americans!!