Swing State Project

Utah holds its congressional primaries tonight. The only contested race is UT-03, where perennially unpopular Rep. Chris Cannon faces a challenge from former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz, who might well pose a serious threat – at least according to one poll. While at most we’d be swapping one wingnut for another, SSP Contributing Editor Cristitunity observes that Cannon hails from the “cheap labor conservative” wing of the Republican Party, while Chaffetz is from the “hate the immigrants” wing, hence the origin of this beef. Pick your poison, I suppose.

Polls close right about now – 10pm Eastern time/8pm local. Click here for results.

UPDATE by Crisitunity 1 am edt:

I assume the east coast-based folks have gone to bed, so I’m going to go ahead and call this one. With 497 of 621 precincts reporting (80%), it’s

Chaffetz     18,960 (60%) *

Cannon      12,539 (40%)

Another Clinton impeachment manager bites the dust.

Boccieri Receives “Veteran Advocacy Award of the Year” from the Vietnam Veterans of America, Buckeye State Council

State Senator John Boccieri, candidate for Congress in Ohio’s 16th District, was selected as the recipient for this year’s Vietnam Veterans of America, Buckeye State Council’s “Veteran Advocacy Award of the Year.” The award is presented by the Vietnam Veterans of America, Buckeye State Council annually to the individual who best advocates for issues affecting active duty, retirees, injured, and fallen soldiers in Ohio.

Senator Boccieri has been a tireless advocate for veterans since first elected to the Statehouse in 2000.  He has been successful in working with both Democrats and Republicans to pass legislation benefiting Ohio’s veterans.  Recently, Boccieri passed legislation like the Military Injured Relief Fund which sends grants to injured soldiers.  He also led efforts to bolster job protections for veterans in the workplace after many were losing them while serving abroad, and Boccieri also worked to strengthen enforcement of a 300 foot perimeter for protesters at military funerals.

In his presentation, Buckeye State Council President Thomas R. Burke, stated:

“You listened to veteran issues and followed through to do something about it.  All veterans in Ohio are better off this year than they were last because of you.  The entire membership of Buckeye State Council congratulates you.”

Accepting the award, Senator Boccieri said:

“This is truly an honor. I am humbled the Vietnam Veterans of America selected me when there are so many deserving candidates. I am proud of my record in the Statehouse and have always made veteran issues a top priority. But the real heroes are the brave men and women who have put their lives on the line for our blessed nation, and didn’t make it home. I will continue to work across the aisle to ensure that soldiers receive the resources they need the moment their boots hit the ground. I’ll also continue to fight for the benefits in medical aid and the education benefits they earn when they return home.”

Senator John Boccieri is currently a Major in the United States Air Force Reserve. He is a pilot and flies C-130 cargo planes.  Senator Boccieri has fourteen years of experience in the United States Air Force and has been on four tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of those missions were flying the wounded and the fallen out of Baghdad, Iraq.

Rasmussen (6/23, likely voters, 5/15 in parens):

Scott Kleeb (D): 33 (40)

Mike Johanns (R): 60 (55)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Another wild bounce from Rasmussen, but the new numbers are very much in line with a Research 2000 poll from May that had Johanns leading by 58-31.

Johanns remains very popular in Nebraska, with a 73-23 favorability rating. Kleeb, for his part, has good (but more down-to-earth) numbers: 50-35.

Bonus finding: The crosstabs reveal that McCain voters favor Johanns by an 83-13 margin, while Obama voters are more prone to split their tickets, with Kleeb getting 62% to Johanns’ 32%. Busting out the SSP calculator and factoring in undecideds, my math tells me that McCain is leading Obama by roughly 55-40 in the state. The last poll from Rasmussen from the Presidential race (back in May) had McCain leading Obama by 50-39.

Update: Obviously something is up with my math, as Rasmussen’s real NE numbers are 52-36 McCain.

The Staten Island GOP is scrambling to find a replacement to run in NY-13, following the untimely death of ex-Wall Street exec Francis Powers, who had been slotted in by the local party as Vito Fossella’s replacement. Previous top-tier Republicans under consideration (city councilor James Oddo, state senator Andrew Lanza, district attorney Daniel Donovan, and perplexingly, Fossella himself) all politely declined.

Out of relatively nowhere, former Assemblyman Matthew Mirones has suddenly taken the conventional wisdom by storm. Mirones has two advantages: he’s a well-off businessman who can self-finance, and he used to represent the Island’s East Shore and parts of Brooklyn from 2002 to 2006.

Mirones also has one disadvantage: he and the local GOP don’t like each other much.

But another Republican said Mirones might have some fences to mend with the borough GOP.

“He completely disappeared after he retired,” he said, “and he had some negative stuff to say about people in the party.”

Mirones was believed to be irked that he was passed over by the GOP for a shot at Republican John Marchi’s state Senate seat.

Mirones also clashed with party leaders on other political matters.

“I’m not saying anyone’s closing anything out,” the Republican continued. “But Matthew would have to rebuild things to a comfort level that does not exist right now.”

The Staten Island Advance also reports that NY-1 reporter Lisa Giovinazzo, who was considered the front-runner for a period of about 12 hours before the baffling decision to give the endorsement to Powers several weeks ago, has also moved back to the head of the list. Under consideration, also, was cross-endorsing Paul Atanasio, who is the nominee of Brooklyn’s Conservative Party.

In another indication of how far Republican fortunes have fallen in this district, a bizarre scenario has apparently at least been floated:

While some observers have mentioned the possibility of a GOP cross-endorsement of [Democratic endorsee Michael] McMahon, borough Democratic chair John Gulino said that no one on the Republican side had approached him about it….

The very thought of a McMahon cross-endorsement chilled some Republicans.

“They can’t do that,” said one. “They might as well dissolve the party. It’s the biggest seat in the county. It would be like cross-endorsing Obama.”

SurveyUSA (6/21-23, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll of the race since Long Thompson picked state Rep. Dennie Oxley as her running mate. The Oxley pick was meant to shore up JLT’s strength in southern Indiana, where Daniels currently leads by 53-42. In Northern Indiana, where JLT’s base is located, she leads by 55-39. But the trouble spot seems to be Indianapolis, where SUSA shows Daniels crushing by a surprising 63-34. If she can’t turn things around in Indianapolis — one of the few Dem-friendly regions in the state — she’ll be facing long odds in November.

Bonus finding: in the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 48-47 in Indiana. Perhaps Indiana will be a swing state this year.

That sound you’re hearing is the thud of dozens of McCain strategists fainting.

I’m not pulling your leg (much) with that title. Thanks to a series of complicated legal battles that went all the way to the Supreme Court, Washington is finally resuming its historical “top two” primary method, where all candidates are listed together in the primary and the two top vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. (This may actually make Washington’s general elections more competitive, both in the thoroughly Democratic-dominated Seattle area and the Republican-dominated east.)

Between this, and Washington’s no-party-registration system (no one registers as a member of any party, and for the last few years, Washington used a pick-a-party primary), candidates in Washington now have the opportunity to identify themselves as members of whatever party they want.

That hasn’t stopped Rob McKenna (incumbent AG), the three Republican congresscritters, or most other major office seekers from signing up as “prefers Republican Party…” with one major exception: Dino Rossi, the Republican candidate for governor. He’s running as the standard-bearer of the “G.O.P. Party,” and that’s what will actually appear on the ballot next to his name.

There’s one other Republican Party-pooper who’s running for statewide office: Curtis Fackler, the Spokane County Republican chair, is running for Insurance Commissioner with “No party preference,” concerned that there are 30 percent of voters in Washington who will vote against a Republican “no matter what:”

And we want to get around that. We want them to read our statements and see where we’re coming from.

This escaped national notice until just recently, when Fox News, of all places, called out Rossi for his abandonment of the Republican brand. But why shouldn’t he? Rossi’s pre-politics career was real estate salesperson; he knows how to sell, and he knows that when your brand of dog food has been found to be poisonous, you stop selling it under that name.

This past week had important events scheduled every day ending with a very busy weekend.  Here is a brief rundown of the highlights of the week:

The first major joint debate between the 2 candidates in the 5th Congressional District was held on Tuesday at the CBICC luncheon.  The event was broadcast later that evening on PCN.  The feedback I’ve received is that the debate clearly showed the contrast where I stand on the important issues, both regional and national, and where my opponent stands.  The important topics addressed included healthcare, the Iraq war and the growing crisis of increasing gas and energy costs.

On Thursday, I attended an open house for the expansion of Murmac Farms outside of Bellefonte.  This was a very educational trip for me as I got to see the operation of a modern dairy farm with 1000 cows that are milked daily.  Speaking with the owner, he explained to me the trials of running the operation which is a 7 day a week, year round operation.  It is a family business with 2 of his 3 sons also living and working on the farm.  The farm also employs around 25 people on a full time basis.  The most interesting thing I learned was how technology is used on a modern dairy farm.  Every cow has a device around their neck that is read as they move through the process of milking.  The data is retrieved using wireless technology and fed back into computers which monitor their daily milk output and how much feed they consume.  

Friday I traveled to Altoona to attend the annual convention of the Pennsylvania Federation of Democratic Women.   I was honored to be one of the featured speakers along with fellow congressional candidates Tony Barr from the 9th district, Kathy Dahlkemper from the 4th district, State Representative Scott Conklin and Auditor General Jack Wagner.  

The week ended with campaign chairman Henry Guthrie traveling with me to Wellsboro on Saturday for the Laurel Festival and Parade.  The parade was late in starting due to a nasty passing thunderstorm and the parade had to end abruptly when another storm passed through the area.  However, it was another enjoyable visit to Tioga County and I got to speak with a good number of people while I attended the festival prior to the parade.  

On the way home from Tioga County, we made a side trip to Williamsport to stop in at the headquarters of the Lycoming County Democratic Party.  It was inspiring to see 4 young people from the Obama campaign along with a person from the county Democratic Party working at the headquarters on a Saturday evening.  It shows how committed people are to positive change in our country.

Finally on Sunday, Kelly, Amanda and I traveled to State College for 2 house parties hosted by Art and Louise Goldschmidt from 3 to 5 and then it was on to Mary Jane Havanec’s house from 5 to 7.  Both house parties offered a great opportunity to talk about the issues important to the people in attendance.  I was also encouraged by several college students who are Obama supporters that came to Art and Louise’s party.   It is great to see their commitment, not only to Senator Obama, but to the entire Democratic slate of candidates.

It was a very busy week for the campaign with many people taking time to be involved.  I want to thank all the Centre County Democrats who turned out to support me at the debate on Tuesday.  I also want to thank the Democrats in Tioga County that arranged for a booth at the Laurel Festival and finally, thanks to the Goldschmidt’s and the Havanec’s for hosting the house parties on Sunday and for everyone who took the time to come out and meet with me.

Below is information about a fundraising event we will be having in Clearfield on July 17th:

McCracken for Congress Dinner

Thursday, July 17th at 5:30PM

Lawrence Township Fire Company Social Hall

Mill Road – Clearfield

Come out and support the campaign to elect Mark B. McCracken to Congress from the 5th Congressional District.  Cost $20 per person – Meal catered by the Country Butcher – Door Prizes – Call for tickets at 765-6821 or 577-3374 or email requests to mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net .

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Well, I just posted a joke comment to the Senate Guru’s June Cattle Call (list the 15 most likely Senate seats to flip).  Instead of doing the usual, I decided to list the 15 least likely to flip.

While that was conceived as a joke, I thought…maybe that list is worth something.  So,…

And now for something completely reasonably different: List, in order of “safeness”, the fifteen LEAST likely Senate seats to flip.

My list:

1. Baucus (MT)

2. Reed (RI)

3. Pryor (AR)

4. Biden (DE)

5. Rockefeller (WV)

6. Levin (MI)

7. Durbin (IL)

8. Harkin (IA)

9. Johnson (SD)

10. Kerry (MA)

11. Lautenberg (NJ)

12. Sessions (AL)

13. Cochran (MS)

14. Enzi (WY)

15. Barrasso (WY)

For the record, #16 is Lindsay Graham (SC) and #17 is Lamar Alexander (TN), both of whom follow close behind 15.

Garin Hart Yang for the DSCC (6/15-17, likely voters):

Mark Udall (D): 46

Bob Schaffer (R): 37

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Nice numbers for M’Udall. Even better, 54% of Schaffer voters describe their support for the ex-congressman as “not that strong”, while only 40% of Udall voters feel the same way about their candidate. As Udall, the DSCC, and outside groups continue to hammer Schaffer on his ties to Abramoff and other matters, we could shake a few of those voters loose. And on the generic ballot, Dems hold a 42-36 lead — a nice sign of Colorado’s Democratic trend.