Rasmussen (6/18, likely voters, 5/14 in parens):
Tom Udall (D): 58 (53)
Steve Pearce (R): 30 (37)
(MoE: ±4%)
Damn, son. When Tom Udall wins this thing, he’ll essentially be taking out three Republicans: Pearce, Wilson, and Domenici. They should call him: Tom Udall, Republican slayer.
(Hat-tip: ChadInFL)
You all knew it was inevitable: at some point, Democratic donors, exhausted by the finally-concluded presidential primary and looking into their empty wallets, would take a little breather from giving, allowing the GOP to play catch-up.
Fear not, though, fellow downballot enthusiasts: most of the damage occurred at the DNC vs. RNC level. The DSCC and DCCC had still slightly better months of May than their Republican counterparts, and they maintain towering edges in cash-on-hand.
| Committee | May Receipts | May Disbursements | May Cash-on-Hand | May Debts & Obligations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSCC (est.) | $5,920,000.00 | $4,950,000.00 | $38,530,000.00 | $0.00 |
| NRSC (est.) | $4,890,000.00 | $2,700,000.00 | $21,560,000.00 | $0.00 |
| DCCC | $6,091,737.14 | $4,192,275.05 | $47,174,105.00 | $0.00 |
| NRCC | $5,017,140.54 | $5,096,869.15 | $6,654,801.50 | $0.00 |
| DNC | $4,795,890.97 | $5,263,698.72 | $3,965,886.11 | $6,306.93 |
| RNC | $24,377,740.11 | $11,513,030.77 | $53,508,001.57 | $0.00 |
| Total Democrats | $16,807,628.11 | $14,405,973.77 | $89,669,991.11 | $6,306.93 |
| Total Republicans | $34,284,880.65 | $19,309,899.92 | $81,722,803.07 | $0.00 |
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t worry too much about the DNC/RNC chasm: the DNC has consistently lagged the RNC lately. That points to one of the most remarkable things about the Obama campaign: for most people, the Obama website has become top-of-mind for direct giving, leading to a bypass of the DNC.
One potential warning sign I see on the horizon, though, is the RNC turning around and allocating a lot of its money to Congressional races, as it realizes that its last best shot at preventing Democratic hegemony is in the Senate by holding GOP losses to 3 or 4 there. If polling continues to go south for McCain along the same trajectory as the last couple weeks, it’s not out of the question that the RNC will consider writing down the McCain campaign as a casualty loss, in order to bolster the likes of Gordon Smith and Roger Wicker.
In the wake of the tragic passing of GOP candidate Frank Powers, media speculation has focused heavily on the possible replacements for Powers on the ballot. For his part, incumbent Rep. Vito Fossella says that he won’t be changing his mind on retirement:
The sudden death yesterday of GOP congressional candidate Frank Powers hasn’t made Rep. Vito Fossella rethink his decision not to run for re-election to the House this fall.
“My plans for the future have not changed,” Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) told the Advance during an exclusive interview in his Eltingville district office today. “I am not running for re-election.”
Other contenders are feeling the same way:
State Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island) and City Councilman James Oddo (R-Mid-Island) both said that they would not second-guess their decisions not to run for Congress. GOP District Attorney Daniel Donovan is thought to feel the same way.
Other rumored replacements include state Supreme Court justice Joseph Maltese and retired investment banker and Conservative Party member Paul Atanasio. NY1 reporter Lisa Giovinazzo, who lost the GOP’s endorsement to Powers, is also considered a potential contender. Donovan would clearly be the strongest choice, but his entry into the race seems unlikely at this point.
As for the means of tapping a replacement, if the GOP collected enough signatures for Powers, the party will be able to appoint a candidate via a committee on vacancies. Otherwise, it seems that the replacement would have to start gathering signatures — and fast.
UPDATE: Elizabeth runs through a list of all the possibilities. A spokesman for Dan Donovan says that he is standing by his decision not to run.
IVR Polls for Eric Roberson (6/4, likely voters):
Eric Roberson (D): 43
Pete Sessions (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4.1%)
TX-32 covers the northwestern suburbs of Dallas. Its population is 36% Hispanic and has a PVI of R+10.7. However, it’s been trending in the right direction: under its current lines, the district supported Bush by 64-36 in 2000, but narrowed to 60-40 in 2004. Mid-decade redistricting forced Democratic Rep. Martin Frost to face off against the incumbent Sessions in 2004, resulting in Frost’s defeat by a 54-44 margin. Dallas attorney Will Pryor (cousin of Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor) attempted a dark horse campaign against Sessions in 2006, but lost by 56-41.
Eric Roberson appears to be even more of a dark horse candidate, having only raised $21,000 for his campaign so far. Of all the “long shot” campaigns in Texas this year (TX-07 and TX-10 are the two other notables), this one seems to be the unlikeliest. But a good showing by Roberson could provide us with some clues and inspiration for the future here.
The following is a preview of Oregon’s delegates who were recently selected to attend the National Convention (excluding state-level delegates whose results are not posted yet). More information is available by going to: http://restricted.dpo.org/delegates/. Delegates are listed below by District and Candidate whom they support. Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/23/122757/648/415/540647)
The following are the district-level delegates elected to attend the Democratic Convention in Denver this August.
Delegates are listed by district and candidate, along with the candidate they were elected to support (although obviously all, or nearly all, of the HRC delegates will actually vote for Obama in Denver). Alternate delegates are indicated with a *.
DPO=Democratic Party of Oregon.
A map of Oregon’s Districts is here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/DistrictMaps/CongMaps/statecong.pdf
Superdelegates (All Obama):
Governor Ted Kulongoski
Senator Ron Wyden
Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR)
Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR)
Rep. David Wu (OR)
Rep. Darlene Hooley
SOS Bill Bradbury
DNC Jenny Greenleaf (OR)
DNC Meredith Woods-Smith (OR)
DNC Wayne Kinney (OR)
DNC Gail Rasmussen (OR)
DNC Frank Dixon (OR)
Oregon’s Add-on Delegate is former Governor, and awesome progressive Barbara Roberts for the second time in a row (at least).
District 1:
Clinton:
Political Activist-Susan Castner
Multnomah County and State Party Leader-Moses Ross
Political Activist and former Novick supporter-Hallie Travis
Obama:
State Rep.-Larry Galizio*
Latino Outreach Person Extraordinaire-Elizabeth Lopez
Washington County D’s Finance Chair and Public Education Activist-Karen Packer
Political Activist, Intel Engineer and Former McGovern Field Worker-Steve Packer
Student Activist (and the youngest delegate in the state at the age of 19)-Andrew Simon
District 2:
Clinton:
Political Activist-Milt Goldman
Retired Professional Fundraiser-Myra Silverman
Obama:
Jackson County Party Chair-Paulie Brading
Jackson County Commissioner-David Gilmour
Party Activist-Sharon Marler*
Mega-Obamaniac-Matthew Sutton
District 3:
Clinton:
Longtime Oregon resident and super cool party activist-Mary Botkin
GLBT Activist-Laura Calvo
Retired Psychologist-Joseph Mazzara
Obama:
Chair of the DPO’s Faith Caucus-Enrique Arias
Former State Senator-Robert Boyer*
Political Activist-Susan Gates
Business and Employment Specialist-Shirley Minor
Party Fundraiser and Communications Specialist-Mac Pritchard
Future State Rep. and Founder of the Oregon Bus Project-Jefferson Smith
Chairperson, Nike Global Product Safety Team and Loaded Orygun Contributor-Stephanie Vardavas
District 4:
Clinton:
Deputy DA-Joan Demarest
Former ODOT (Oregon Department of Transportation) Manager-Loyd Henion
Political Consultant-Jon Pugsley
Obama:
Real Estate Broker and Douglas County Party Chair-Dean Byers
Real Estate Broker-Sara Byers*
Student and Community Organizer-Matt Keating
Retired Special Agent, Dept Of Defense-Karen Lonon-Jones
Video Producer/Writer-Nancy Webber
District 5:
Clinton:
President, Astro Data Services-Harry Demarest
Political Activist-Michael Dye
DPO Leader-Judith Sugnet
Obama:
Union Representative-Jeff Anderson*
Health Care Activist and Grad Student-Walter Dawson
Political Activist-D. Diane Wagner
Small Business Owner-Shirley Woods
Let me know what you think.
The Eric Roberson campaign commissioned a poll of CD32. As with earlier polls of CD7 and CD10, the population sampled was prior voters, and results were weighted to match historical turnout. These polls are designed to be apples-to-apples comparisons with earlier elections, looking at how much the district has shifted rather than projecting new turnout patterns. As with the other Congressional polls, I first asked about McCain v Obama, then Cornyn v Noriega and then the Congressional matchup. While there was minor variation in the responses, margins were identical in all three races.
I find a nine point lead for Pete Sessions and the other Republicans, down from a fifteen point margin in the 2006 election. Three percent said they would vote third party or not vote, in line with the 2.3% that a Libertarian candidate received in 2006. Only one percent said they were undecided in the Congressional race, while the Presidential and Senate races had about 4% undecided.
Questions were posed in this format:
In the 32nd District Congressional race, the candidates are Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Eric Roberson
If you would vote for Republican Pete Sessions, press 1
If you would vote for Democrat Eric Roberson, press 2
If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 3
If you are undecided, press 4
The order of candidate names and choices is randomized. As of last week, I have changed my format to add the Libertarian candidate’s name, but this poll was conducted prior to that change.
Additional questions requested by the Roberson campaign were asked after the three matchup questions so that there would be no bias. Sessions was viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 39%, with the remainder neutral. Roberson’s name recognition was low, even among those who supported him. Top issue was the Economy, followed by the War.
Illegal Immigration, Change and Healthcare also received support at lower levels.
Sessions 52%
Roberson 43%
Third party/no vote 3%
Undecided 1%
Excluding third party/no vote
Sessions 54%
Roberson 45%
Undecided 1%
581 likely voters polled 6/4/2008, margin of error 4.1%
Other recent Texas polls for comparison
CD10, June 2 – McCaul 52% – Doherty 46%
CD7, April 8 – Culberson 57% – Skelly 39%
Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.
Below is a blog post from the Josh Zeitz for Congress campaign. Josh is a Democrat challenging Republican incumbent (and anti-choice caucus chair) Chris Smith in NJ-4.
With gas prices at $4/gallon, the last thing New Jersey drivers deserve is to get ripped off by gas station owners. I read recently about the inspections conducted by law enforcement of over 1000 gas stations in all 21 counties of our state. Any violations would be unacceptable, but over 350 station owners, more than one in three, were found in violation.
You know, this past weekend I walked through two precincts in Bordentown Township and attended the really amazing Florence Occasion in the Park. People told me they were fed up with the high cost of gas, and one specifically brought up how many gas stations were cited for cheating drivers at the pump.
More after the break.
Like most of you, I am outraged at these violations, which Attorney General Anne Milgram said are in all likelihood intentional attempts to deceive consumers. I’m glad that these inspections took place and that drivers can now be more confident that they are at least getting what they are paying four dollars a gallon for. I would suggest they mandate more frequent inspections.It’s for reasons like this that I support strict criminal penalties for price gouging. The law has to protect drivers not only from gas station owners but also from the Big Oil companies who are making record profits and still receiving outrageous subsidies from our governments in Washington. We need measures that investigate price fixing by Oil Cartels like OPEC as well as unfair and ridiculous prices set by the biggest oil producers in the United States.
You can read more about where I stand on gas prices in my last post, available at: http://blog.joshzeitz.com/inde…
I’m going to stick around for comments. If you are interested in volunteering for the campaign, please contact me at ian_at_joshzeitz_com. I am a volunteer myself, and serve as Josh’s Netroots Outreach Coordinator.
As I said yesterday, it goes without saying that my condolances go out to the Powers family. However, the busness of politics goes on, and if the Republicans hope they can recruit a stronger candiate to take Frank Powers’ they may be out of luck.
State Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island) declined to run because he didn’t want to be away from his young family, and yesterday said that Powers’ death didn’t alter his thinking.
“I made the decision for all the right reasons,” Lanza said. “This doesn’t change the reasons why.”
“Nothing’s changed for me,” said Councilman James Oddo (R-Mid-Island), who passed on the congressional race in order to focus on a 2009 run for borough president. “What I said a month or so ago still rings true.”
District Attorney Daniel Donovan as well as County Clerk Stephen Fiala, a former South Shore City Councilman, each said last month that they would not run for the seat.
It is believed that Fossella, who announced last month that he would not seek re-election, will remain on the sidelines.
This has to be one of the most unusual races of the year, so sa the least and anything can happen, but the picture seems to go from bad to worse for the Republicans.
Boy, soliciting contributions from, and voting for the special interests must be really tiring work. Being Mitch McConnell’s favorite lackey in the Kentucky Republican Party machine must be too. Exxon Eddie has been a busy man, and unfortunately it is catching up with him. He is looking pretty tired……
When Veterans needed him to stand up for them on the benefits they had earned and were promised:
Whitfield voted against a $53 Million boost for Veteran’s Health care and benefits. The vote was against an amendment to the Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs funding bill to add $53 million for veterans health care and other benefits, offset by a 9% cut to BRAC. The amendment would add $8 million for combat-related trauma care, $6 million for poly-trauma centers to support wounded troops once they return to their homes, $9 million for VA medical and prosthetic research and $7 million for 100 additional staff who process claims for compensation and pension benefits. Finally, the amendment would provide $23 million to help approximately 4,100 souses of service members with children whose spouse died during the War on Terrorism between September 11, 2001 and November 30, 2004 by making them eligible for Dependency and Indemnity Compensation. The amendment failed 213-214 – Whitfield was the deciding vote which denied these benefits to injured veterans. (Leadership Document, “Medical Quality Democratic Amendment Final.”)
[HR 2528, Vote #224, 5/26/05; Failed 213-214; R 19-210; D 193-4; I 1-0]
Exxon Ed Whitfield was asleep at the wheel:
While others fought for Ethics in Goverment:
Whitfield voted to Weaken House Ethics Rules. The new rules would allow lobbyists to cater meals to members’ offices and let charities pay for lawmakers to travel and stay at golf resorts and other locales. The measure would allow outside interests to pay for “perishable food or refreshments offered to members of an office.” For example, a lobbying firm representing pharmaceutical interests sent in dinner for House speaker J. Dennis Hastert’s (R-IL) staff while they were working late on a prescription drug bill. The weaker rules passed, 221-203. Whitfield has since traveled abroad at the expense of lobbyists who sit on the boards of non-profit organizations.
[HRS 5, Vote #6, 1/4/2005; Passed 220-195; R 220-0; D 0-194; D 0-1].
Exxon Eddie was Asleep at the Wheel:
When Americans needed a break from Price Gouging:
Whitfield Opposed Cracking Down on Price Gouging and Lowering Gas Prices. The vote was against a measure to provide the Federal Trade Commission with new authority to investigate and prosecute those who engage in predatory pricing, from oil companies on down to gas stations, with the emphasis on those who profit the most. This includes price gouging of gasoline and natural gas, home heating oil and propane. The measure increased funding for the low-income home energy assistance program through fines from price-gouging companies and created a strategic refinery reserve with capacity equal to 5% of the total United States demand for gasoline, home heating oi8l and other refined petroleum products.
]HR 3893, Vote #517, 10/7/2005; Failed 199-222; R 2-222; D 196-0; I 1-0].
Exxon Eddie was asleep at the wheel:
Finally, when Kentucky’s Coal Miners needed a friend to fight for safer working conditions for them:
Whitfield Voted to Put Coal Miners at Greater Health Risk
[HR 2660, Vote #349, 7/10/2003; Failed 216-216; R207-19; D 9-195; I 0-1]
The vote would allow for new rules allowing four times the amount of coal dust previously legal in underground mines. Under the proposal, operators could violate a standard spelled out in the 1969 federal mine safety law that specifically says respirators are not to be used as a substitute for otherwise lowering the level of dust in mines. An effort to block the new fule failed 210-212.
You guessed it, Exxon Ed Whitfield was asleep at the wheel:
All these years of representing the special interests and Corporate America over the interests of the average working American have taken a toll on Exxon Ed Whitfield. He needs rest, and where better to get it than beautiful, sunny Florida where he lives?? Lets send him there to catch up on his beauty sleep.
You can go a long way helping do that here:
http://www.actblue.com/page/am…
Best wishes everyone!!
Shocking news from the NY-13, Daily Kos and The Albany Project are reporting coverage from the NY Daily News that Republican Frank Powers has died of an apparent heart attack.
GOP and law enforcement sources confirmed Powers, 68, a retired Wall Street executive and MTA board member, died at his Annfield Court home on Staten Island.
“We’re back to square one in terms of finding a candidate,” said one obviously shaken Staten Island Republican. “You go from the bizarre to the surreal around here.”
UPDATE: Powers’ family issued the following statement:
“Our dad Frank passed away early this morning. As you can imagine, this is a difficult time for our family. We would appreciate privacy and time as we make the necessary arrangements.”
“We shall have more information when final arrangesments have been made. We thank you for your kindness and cooperation and ask you to keep our dad and family in your prayers.”
It goes without saying that my condolances go out to the family, however the political reamificatios are huge if local Republicans can leverage is memory to recruit a stronger candidate. Stay tuned.