Swing State Project

Opportunity is clearly knocking in southwest Ohio, thanks to Jane Mitakides in OH-3, Steve Driehaus in OH-1, and Victoria Wulsin in OH-2 . But as you consider these races, take a look at the actual, hard numbers comparing the three districts:

Democratic challenger performance in OH-3 is trending through the roof, besting 60% in the 2008 primary. Governor Ted Strickland carried OH-3 in 2006, making it the only district in the region that he won with more than 50%. This is a highly winnable race.

Democratic performance is on a dramatic upward trajectory-up more than 22% from 2004 to 2008, which is the largest increase among Congressional Districts in Southwest Ohio. In 2006, Democratic performance increased 21.5% in the usually GOP counties of Highland and Clinton.

A 137% increase in Democratic turnout between the 2004 and 2008 primary in Ohio’s 3rd Congressional District illustrates how excited voters are in OH-3 for a new direction for America. GOP primary turnout increased by only 25% over the same period.

*It is vital to remember that OH-3 looks skewed because of the sudden withdrawal of the initial candidate in 2006. Despite the odds and no name recognition, a political newcomer got 41% of the vote in a 53 day campaign.

(Cross-posted from www.jane08.com)

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey

According to a new report at NJ Politicker.com, Congressman Chris Smith (R-NJ-4) rarely visits his district. This bit of information is not widely known, but it soon will be, and provides another opening for Democrat Josh Zeitz to make his case.

The article speaks for itself:

When Rep. Chris Smith was first elected to the House, he was brand new to the Washington scene. But after 27 years of representing New Jersey in Congress, Smith has spent almost half of his life living in Virginia. [snip]

In 2000, Smith spent 73 days and 41 nights in his district, according to Congressional spending reports. That’s 20% of his days (including travel days) and 11.23% of his nights. Since then, records show the number of days Smith spent in New Jersey has decreased almost every year.

More details after the jump.  

Here are the raw numbers of Smith’s time in his home district:

2001- 59 days, 31 nights

2002 -56 days, 26 nights

2003- 47 days, 23 nights

2004 -43 days, 19 nights

2005 – 40 days, 15 nights

2006 – 29 days, 7 nights

2007 – 48 days, 22 nights

Over the last eight years, Smith has spent a total of 395 days and 184 nights in New Jersey while on official business.

Smith was interviewed for the piece and does not dispute the numbers. I’ll leave it to you all to decide what you think of this, but I don’t doubt that the residents of NJ-4 will be interested and that it can’t make them think more positively of their veteran Congressman.

On the more humorous side, the reporter interviewed Smith’s ‘neighbors’ (he has a small rental in Hamilton Township and is the only member of the NJ congressional delegation who does not own a home in New Jersey), and found the following:

Most of Smith’s neighbors in the quaint, middle-class townhouse complex that he lists as his New Jersey residence were surprised – and sometimes elated — to hear that their Congressman was also neighbor. PolitickerNJ.com knocked on all of the doors of the units that adjoin Smith’s apartment, and of the six neighbors who answered, only one had ever seen Smith. Only two had any idea that he lived there.

Chris Smith is ripe for defeat, and Josh Zeitz needs your help to make that happen. Smith, the House ‘pro-life’ caucus chair, is a radical on reproductive rights (and not in a good way) who, for example, sponsored a constitutional amendment to criminalize the birth control pill. Furthermore, he has stood with George Bush on Iraq down the line as a senior Republican on the House International Relations Committee.

Josh is a common sense progressive who will represent the values of Central Jersey. Furthermore, his victory will strengthen the Democratic majority in Congress. Please help him out check out his website and do what you can to support him. If you can volunteer, please email me at:

ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com

I am a volunteer and Josh’s Netroots Outreach Coordinator

SurveyUSA (4/28-30, likely voters, 4/4-6 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 28 (11)

Steve Novick (D): 30 (23)

Candy Neville (D): 8 (12)

David Loera (D): 2 (6)

Roger Obrist (D): 4 (5)

Pavel Goberman (D): 2 (3)

Other/Undecided: 26 (40)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

That’s quite a big jump for Merkley, who began his statewide advertising campaign this month.  However, I don’t doubt that the ultimate outcome will be very close.

The DCCC just posted another round of big money moves in Louisiana tonight.  Here’s the rundown:

• $146,000 on media buys against Woody Jenkins
• $47,000 on a media buy in support of Don Cazayoux.
• $6000 on phonebanks.
• $7800 on direct mail against independent candidate Ashley Casey.
• $4500 on direct mail in support of Don Cazayoux.
• $52,600 on direct mail against Woody Jenkins.
• $4,100 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.

The new expenditures tally up to $267,242, bringing the DCCC’s total tab in this district to a whopping $1,185,396.

Special election: 5/3.  (SSP will be liveblogging the results on Saturday evening.  Be sure to check back with us.)

UPDATE: Additionally, SEIU COPE just posted a $150K media buy in support of Cazayoux.

Following yesterday’s massive infusion of cash ($700,000) by the DCCC in Mississippi, the NRCC has mustered its response.

Brace yourselves:

  1. Opposes Candidate: CHILDERS FOR CONGRESS

       Payee: TARGETED CREATIVE

       Date Expended = 05/01/2008      Amount Expended = $7846.01

       Purpose: Mailing Service

Yawn.

Meanwhile, the DCCC has posted $40K worth of new expenditures of their own tonight: $6K on literature for Childers, $16K on direct mail for Childers, $16K on direct mail against Greg Davis, and $1200 on phonebanking.

Special election: 5/13.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

I love days like today…a blogger’s dream! The campaign just pounded so much Mojo at me today I had turn it into a major round-up. It’s a quite fitting run of “Ground Mobilization” by our candidate, the Ohio State Senator Major John Boccieri. Boots on the ground! It’s time to rock Ohio’s 16th Congressional District out of the tired funk from “The Hillary, Barack, McCain Diary Train”. Get ready for the battle brewing here in Northeast Ohio!

Out of Headquarters…Ground Mobilization!

Greetings Friends,

Efforts are already picking up in the 16th Congressional District to get the word out about Major John Boccieri and the Democratic Ticket.

On Saturday, May 3rd, Neighborhood Leaders and volunteers from across the state will engage in the first of many canvass days dedicated to talking directly with voters about the importance of electing Major Boccieri and the Democratic Ticket in this year’s election.

The morning starts with a statewide conference call and strategy session, featuring ODP Chairman Redfern and other special guests. Please make the commitment to join with us on May 3rd – you can organize a group of people to work together, or, if you prefer, materials will be available in advance at Boccieri HQ so you can canvass during the week.

The statewide goal is to knock on 10,000 doors on May 3rd – and we want to add as many doors to that total as we can. Every door we knock on means that more of our neighbors will hear about Major Boccieri and his message to change direction in Congress.

We hope you will be able to join us in this important effort Saturday.

Here are the details:

Goal: Knock on 10,000 doors statewide

When: Saturday, May 3rd, 10:00 AM

Where: Boccieri for Congress HQ, The Metropolitan Center, 601 Cleveland Ave., N.W.,

Canton Conference Call Time: 10:30 AM

Call in Number: (800) 394-7217, Pass Code 813 789 1547

Organizer: Megan Joyce, ODP NE OH Field Rep., 330-285-8745; megan@ohiodems.org

Please RSVP to Megan Joyce at 330-285-8745 or megan@ohiodems.org.

Thanks again for your support. We look forward to seeing you Saturday!

Ian Walton

Boccieri for Congress

John Boccieri for Congress

Campaign Headquarters

The Metropolitan Center

601 Cleveland Ave., NW

(corner of 6th & Cleveland)Downtown Canton

(330) 754-0534

Visit our website for more information on how you can help change direction in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District.

— Paid for by John Boccieri for Congress —

Five years after “Mission Accomplished”,” many other missions left unaccomplished

State Sen. John Boccieri, Democratic candidate for Congress in the 16th Congressional District, issued the following statement on the fifth anniversary of President Bush’s declaration of ‘Mission Accomplished:

State Senator Major John Boccieri said:

“Five years after President Bush declared ‘Mission Accomplished’ and an end to combat operations in Iraq, we find many things left unaccomplished in Washington.”

We still see our brave men and women serving in the Armed Forces, and in harms way, being injured and killed. It’s clear after 5 years of civil war we need to bring our troops home safely,honorably and soon.

Once those soldiers return we must give them everything they need from healt hcare to education.

We need strong leadership that will bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon. The war in Iraq is costing Americans $12 billion a month, and the cost to our troops and their families is incalculable. Not expending $12 billion a month on the war would enable us to meet our obligations to our troops when they return, including the long-term health care so many will require as a result of their injuries.

Bad trade deals have devastated the 16th Congressional District, shipping thousands of good paying jobs overseas. It’s time to vote ‘no’ on trade policies that take away Ohio’s workers’ ability to compete fairly in the global market and trade deals that don’t protect the environment or workers’ rights

Hundreds of families in our area don’t have health insurance. The families of the 16th Congressional District deserve a leader in Washington who will put their needs first and accomplish an expansion of affordable health care to more Ohioans.

The cost of fuel is crippling our economy as our families confront choices between putting gas in their cars and other necessities. It’s time for a change to an energy policy that puts families’ needs before big oil profits. We need to invest in alternative and renewable energy, investments that would help create good jobs and sustainable economic growth and lessen our dependence on foreign oil.

Bocieri laid it out like he always does:

“Throughout the 16th Congressional District, families are hurting! The cost of everything is skyrocketing, and our families feel like no one hears their calls for change. It’s clearly time for a new direction and leadership with a new vision. Our families literally cannot afford to wait any longer!”

I’ll tell you what if that’s not enough to get your blood pumping; I caught more information coming out of the Boccieri Headquarters!

OH-16: State Senator Major John Boccieri for U.S. Congress…

Fighting for his constituency, everyday!

Boccieri applauds Energy bill for stabilizing prices, emphasizing renewable and alternative sources

State Senator John Boccieri and candidate for Congress in Ohio’s 16th District today applauded Governor Ted Strickland’s signing of Senate Bill 221, Ohio’s energy bill.

Boccieri was one of several Senate co-sponsors of the energy bill, which ensures stable, reliable electricity prices and sets principles to make Ohio a leader in renewable and alternative sources of energy.

Boccieri let his voice be heard, again:

Northeast Ohio companies and manufacturers use a lot of energy, and access to reliable and affordable electricity will allow them to remain competitive and successful. Without this energy bill, we would have faced skyrocketing electricity prices that would have financially strapped Ohio families and cost our state jobs.”

Boccieri also voiced his support for a bill introduced by U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown on Wednesday that would invest $36 billion over five years in green energy manufacturing and the use of new energy technologies in Ohio and across the United States.

Speaking of Senator Brown’s efforts State Sen. Boccieri said:

“Senator Brown’s energy plan has the potential to greatly impact Ohio with our large energy consumption and manufacturing base. Senator Brown’s proposed plan, coupled with Ohio’s energy bill, represents the kind of forward-thinking that our country needs to regain our energy independence and keep and create jobs in America.

With a skilled manufacturing workforce already in place, Northeast Ohio could be a leader in Ohio’s renewable energy efforts.”

Leading by example, Boccieri’s campaign headquarters is the first LEED-certified building in Canton. The headquarters, located at the corner of 6th and Cleveland, uses geothermal heating and solar energy.

John Boccieri added to his statement of support:

“In Washington, I will work to make long-term changes in our energy policy and tackle the sky-high fuel and energy prices which the Bush Administration failed to address.I’m committed to leading efforts in Congress that make Ohio – and America – more energy independent, while also increasing our use of alternative and renewable energies.”

I know that is a factual statement! Ohio State Senator John Boccieri and I have been talking for sometime about the great opportunities just inside the 16th District boundaries, not to mention, feasible nationwide programs in alternative energy sources. This is THE guy to have in the “Mix”!

There are three Portland-based, general circulation newspapers: The Oregonian, The Willamette Week, and the Portland Mercury*. The number of times they've all endorsed the same candidate for a major office recently can probably be counted on one hand (or less!), but when it comes to the Democratic nomination for Senate, they're in perfect harmony: they want the guy with the hook.

We covered The O's big Sunday endorsement of Steve; let's add in the others. First, Willamette Week, whose nod may certainly have been less of a surprise than that from the House of Stickel, but which comes on the heels of a joint endorsement interview Novick's critics–and even some supporters–mark as his low moment of the campaign. The ed board may or may not have liked Novick's answers on the peripheral questions of the race, but they liked Merkley's issue positions even less, making note of three separate areas of "concern."

In the end, the editors appear happily surprised to have Novick exceed their expectations to become a legitimate, solid candidate with the potential for greatness:

Let’s be clear. Back in January 2007, Novick was little more than a placeholder. Novick has a rapier wit, a winning affinity for sports references and an impressive behind-the-scenes résumé working for worthy causes. But Oregonians were waiting for another, more credible Democratic challenger to Smith, a telegenic senator who’s raised boatloads of cash and worked to style himself in the moderate image of past Republican icons such as Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood and Tom McCall. We all thought that other person would come along.

We were hotly divided between the fun, speak-his-mind insurgent who calls to mind the late Sen. Paul Wellstone and the impassive Merkley, who calls to mind the widely respected Sen. Al Gore—the wooden version, before he became as steaming as the planet.

In the end, we rallied around Novick because we see a capacity for a refreshing independence and an unwavering willingness to tackle our toughest issues, like providing universal health care and ending the war in Iraq. We recognize, too, he could be a spectacular failure, a quotable firebrand for the left who is both alienating and alienated. Our hope is he commits himself to becoming the Senate’s best workhorse before shooting for the ranks of Sunday talk-show showhorse. Novick, please play nice.

 {the Merc's endorsement, and even bigger swipe at Merkley, below}  

 Near the bottom of a long list of City endorsees, in today's issue The Merc gets to the statewide races and makes their call for Senate:

We've gone back and forth on this endorsement for weeks. Were we choosing the candidate who would make the best US Senator, or were we picking the one best suited to topple formidable Republican Gordon Smith—someone who'd put up a better fight, even if they weren't ultimately successful?  

Finally, we realized that attorney and political activist Steve Novick is the best choice on both counts. Not only will he give Smith the toughest challenge—just look at the momentum he's got against Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley, a solid political leader, and the guy plenty of Democrats assumed would be coronated as the nominee—but assuming he wins in November (and we're starting to believe he can), we're excited to see what he'd do in DC.

At first, we thought his campaign was heavy on schtick—relying on viral ads highlighting Novick's steel hook prosthetic left hand—and short on evidence that Novick would be an effective representative for Oregon. But as the campaign has heated up, we're pleased to see that Novick's record on things like taking on the Oregon Lottery Commission to fight for more school funding has translated well to federal policy issues—we have no doubt that Novick will be a strong advocate to end the war, create universal health care, and help the working class.

The brainy Novick's penchant for saying exactly what's on his mind has gotten him in trouble a few times, but it's apparent that he's learning to temper that impulse. That said, he'll continue to do things differently, in a way that makes you wonder why more politicians don't follow his lead. Meanwhile, his opponents like Candy Neville and Jeff Merkley are virtually on the same page when it comes to agendas and policy positions. Smith, however, would trounce Neville. While Merkley would likely be a solid senator, given his track record leading Democrats in Salem, we're just not that into him. Vote for Novick. [emph me]

Ouch. Leave it to the Merc to put out there as plainly as possible: Jeff Merkley just does not inspire many people, or make them believe that he has the potential for greatness. This is an election to get excited about making real change, and Merkley is coming up short. 

What's the practical value of these endorsements? Hard to say, although there is certainly some kind of benefit to having all three major papers backing the same guy (especially, as I said above, when they generally don't agree). Veteran OR politico Charlie Burr thinks he has an idea of their impact, however, and he states it in comments at BlueOregon:

The Mercury endorsements will matter more than usual this year for the same reason WWeek's will: 30,000 new voters registered by the Oregon Obama campaign. The Obama campaign may have registered them, but these new voters will still be looking for additional cues for other races on their ballots.

 

 You do have to figure that particularly with these latest two, the demographic skews towards younger voters. And with a lot more younger voters in the mix who cannot WAIT to vote in this primary, there's no question that seeing Novick's name downticket in the endorsement will help shade some of those folks–who may be so jazzed about the Pres race that they haven't been following some others–towards Steve. Nothing wrong with that!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*The Portland Tribune obviously exists as well, but for the purposes of endorsement the Pamplin ownership group makes a blanket call for all its papers in the area; and while there are other papers publishing in Portland, they are aimed at specific rather than general audiences.

I recently recieved my 2008 Paducah Grassroots survey from the DCCC. In it, there was a short questionaire, and a request for a renewal contribution to the DCCC. I wanted to share a little about this request, and give my own personal opinions, as well as provide my response to the DCCC.  

Now, this survey started out like this:

At Democratic Party Headquarters, we are deep into planning our 2008 campaign strategy. But to give us a complete picture, we want to hear from leading Democrats like you regarding what needs to be done to win critical elections in your area.

So today, I’m asking you to provide your opinions and insights into how Democrats can take back the White House and strengthen our Democratic Majority in Congress by participating in our 2008 Paducah Grassroots Survey.

It continues with this paragraph:

And when you return your survey, I urge you to include your 2008 DCCC renewal contribution. We are counting on all of our members to renew their support this year, and we have not yet recieved your 2008 membership contribution.

Now, I think anyone who keeps up with my blogging knows I am as committed as anyone to expanding our Congressional majorities. However, I no longer believe that contributing to the DCCC is the best course of doing so.

Why would I say something like that? Well, there are several reasons. First and foremost is that the DCCC seems more than willing to concede my district again, and ignore the Democrats here. My Congressional candidate, Heather Ryan recently informed me that when she talked to the DCCC asking about finding out some information on Ed Whitfield, our Republican Congressman, not only was she told that it wasn’t the job of the DCCC to help a Democratic candidate for the House who is running against a sitting Republican, the young man on the phone actually got rude with her!!

This coupled with the fact that the DCCC refuses to invest a penney in our district, leads me to ask, if the DCCC is not supposed to aid a Democratic candidate in her campaign by helping her find information, what is the money I have sent them being used for? Then, to actually get RUDE with a candidate that is working as hard as Heather to me is unacceptable.

I filled out my survey, telling them what it would take to win races around here. I also sent them this note along with the survey:

Mr. Van Hollen,

Thank you for holding me in such high regard as a leading Democrat from my area. I have sent you my survey to try and help you make decisions to win this year in Western Kentucky. I can tell you up front that the main thing the DCCC can do to win here is invest in these voters once again. The DCCC and most Democratic establishments have ignored our district and voters for a long time now. We can win here if we invest in these voters.

I also want to convey something to you that disturbed me very much. When my Congressional candidate, Heather Ryan asked for a minor favor that didn’t include money from the DCCC, not only was she denied, but the person she was talking to actually got rude with her about asking them for anything.

To me, this represents a very unprofessional attitude by the DCCC. Heather Ryan is working very hard, as are the volunteers like myself in this district to do something the DCCC seems unwilling to do, fight for our home. We are just as dedicated as any Democrats anywhere and do not deserve to have our efforts demeaned because the DCCC doesn’t think our voters are worth their time and money.

Since the DCCC refuses to assist in the fight for Kentucky’s First Congressional District, and I have already made several donations to Ryan for Kentucky, I am considering my contributions toward fighting for my own Congressional seat as my renewal contribution to the DCCC, since we are doing work here that the DCCC has deemed not worth their time.

When the DCCC decides that my district and the 63% of registered Democrats therein are worth some time and effort, and when our Congressional candidate is treated with respect and not as a nuisance I will be more than happy to support the DCCC financially once more. Until then, every penney I can muster from my meager income must go towards fighting for Heather Ryan and Kentucky’s First Congressional District, since the DCCC is unwilling to do so.

Thank you,

Richard Dillon

You may or may not agree with me on this one, but this is something I believe very strongly about. I am tired of watching Democrats in this district being written off, and will not contribute to it anymore.

I owe grassroots Democrats in the blogosphere a debt of gratitude. You are showing the DCCC that many Democrats believe my district and candidate are worth fighting for. My ActBlue page for Heather Ryan has literally been jumping the last five days with donations. I had set a goal to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20, and now sit only $245 under my goal. You have my humble thanks.

Remember that anyone who donates to Americans for Ryan is entered into a drawing to win two pinback buttons from the 1960 campaign of JFK. Help us show the DCCC that Democrats are worth fighting for wherever they are!!

Once again, thanks for the support for Americans for Ryan, and with your continued support we WILL win this seat!!!

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies.  We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.

Let’s take a look at the month ahead:

May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:  

• LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker.  In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls.  However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

  We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact.  The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead.  SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then.  There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:

• IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels.  Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson.  This one could be close.
• IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot.  His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money.  State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
• NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination.  Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.

  Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans).  In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.

• NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole.  While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
• NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland.  But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction.  It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
• NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone).  Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.

May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.

• MS-01: The big event.  Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.  Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election.  Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.  But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race.  This one should be close.
• NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska.  Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
• NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch.  Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination.  Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.

May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.

• KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell.  Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance.  Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
• KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis.  Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter).  Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
• OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith.  Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
• OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her.  Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader.  Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark.  Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all.  My mistake!)

  On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.

There you have it.  May will be a month chock full of races worth watching.  SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.

Holy smokes:

Rep. Vito J. Fossella (R-N.Y.) was arrested overnight in Alexandria and charged with driving while intoxicated, court records showed today.

Fossella is scheduled to appear in Alexandria General District Court on May 12 for an advisement hearing, the records said.

No other details were immediately available.

Reached by phone, Fossella’s communication director had no immediate comment on the report.

More as we get it.  Fossella was already facing a potentially competitive re-election campaign this fall.

(H/T: mississippiboy)