On the heels of her statewide advertising blitz, Democrat Kay Hagan is putting some distance between her campaign and that of her primary opponent, Jim Neal, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll (4/19-21, likely voters, 4/5-7 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 38 (21)
Jim Neal (D): 16 (20)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
With more resources at her disposal than Neal, it would be a surprise for Neal to make up this lost ground over the next few weeks.
Last week, the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative House Democrats offered their endorsement to Travis Childers, who has been running a hard-charging campaign for the R+10 open seat left behind by Roger Wicker.
That was awfully nice of them, but how meaningful is their endorsement? Let’s take a look at Childers’ fundraising so far and see how many Blue Dogs have sent donations to Childers:
| District | Member | MS-01 Donation |
|---|---|---|
| NY-24 | Mike Arcuri | $0 |
| CA-43 | Joe Baca | $0 |
| GA-12 | John Barrow | $0 |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean | $0 |
| AR-01 | Marion Berry | $0 |
| GA-02 | Sanford Bishop | $0 |
| OK-02 | Dan Boren | $0 |
| IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | $0 |
| FL-02 | Allen Boyd | $0 |
| CA-18 | Dennis Cardoza | $0 |
| PA-10 | Chris Carney | $0 |
| KY-06 | Ben Chandler | $0 |
| TN-05 | Jim Cooper | $0 |
| CA-20 | Jim Costa | $0 |
| AL-05 | Bud Cramer | $0 |
| TN-04 | Lincoln Davis | $0 |
| IN-02 | Joe Donnelly | $0 |
| IN-08 | Brad Ellsworth | $0 |
| IL-14 | Bill Foster | $0 |
| AZ-08 | Gabrielle Giffords | $0 |
| NY-20 | Kirsten Gillibrand | $0 |
| TN-06 | Bart Gordon | $0 |
| CA-36 | Jane Harman | $0 |
| IN-09 | Baron Hill | $0 |
| PA-17 | Tim Holden | $0 |
| NY-02 | Steve Israel | $0 |
| TX-22 | Nick Lampson | $0 |
| FL-16 | Tim Mahoney | $0 |
| UT-02 | Jim Matheson | $0 |
| LA-03 | Charlie Melancon | $1,000 |
| NC-07 | Mike McIntyre | $0 |
| ME-02 | Mike Michaud | $0 |
| KS-03 | Dennis Moore | $0 |
| PA-08 | Patrick Murphy | $0 |
| MN-07 | Collin Peterson | $0 |
| ND-AL | Earl Pomeroy | $0 |
| AR-04 | Mike Ross | $0 |
| CO-03 | John Salazar | $0 |
| CA-47 | Loretta Sanchez | $0 |
| SD-AL | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin | $0 |
| CA-29 | Adam Schiff | $0 |
| NC-11 | Heath Shuler | $0 |
| GA-13 | David Scott | $0 |
| OH-18 | Zack Space | $0 |
| TN-08 | John Tanner | $2,000 |
| MS-04 | Gene Taylor | $2,000 |
| CA-01 | Mike Thompson | $0 |
| OH-06 | Charlie Wilson | $0 |
And no donations from the Blue Dog PAC, either. With the exceptions of Reps. Melancon, Taylor, and Tanner (the latter of which actually took the time to campaign with Childers), this is a pretty pathetic show of support from the Blue Dogs in an extremely winnable race, especially when you consider just how flush with cash the Blue Dogs are.
When Blue Dogs and their allies keep telling us that Democrats need to compete in the South to succeed as a party, how can we possibly take them seriously if they won’t even put their money where their mouths are? Here we have an extremely viable race with an economically populist, socially conservative candidate in Travis Childers leading the charge. Yet, the Blue Dogs have mostly ignored him. What gives?
Granted, several members of the Blue Dog Coalition are facing tough re-election fights, and I wouldn’t expect them to be parting with any cash-on-hand at this point in time. But the vast majority of these members are not facing daunting re-election campaigns, and I would hope that they would loosen their purse strings and contribute $2000 (the maximum allowable amount from a member’s campaign account) or more if they have a leadership PAC to help Childers replenish his war chest. As he gears up to take on Republican Greg Davis one more time in the face of what will likely be fierce NRCC and 527 opposition, he’s going to need all the help he can get.
Blue Dogs: it’s time to step up to the plate.
I have been blogging for Heather Ryan, and been a proud member of Ryan for Kentucky for a little over a month now. I have started my own ActBlue page in support of Heather, and asked my fellow Democrats around the country to contribute to Americans for Ryan. Well, many of you have responded, and I am very grateful. I have said that your contribution will be put to work immediately to defeat a sitting incumbent Republican and expand our Congressional majorities.
Well, the good news is the fruits of our labor are paying off!! Because of our netroots support, and support from all over the district we have been able to get a head start during primary season, a primary Heather is unopposed in, and have been able to get Heather’s name out there right now!! A quick drive around my hometown of Paducah lets me see just how valuable your support is, and it also shows me how Ryan for Kentucky is catching on with my neighbors here in Paducah. So, without delay I want to share with you the fruits of our labor!!! Driving around Paducah today, I saw a Ryan for Kentucky prescense!!:
This is just the start!! Democrats in Kentucky’s First District have a candidate they can be proud of!! Heather Ryan is young, smart, and ready to fight for our ideals!! They know that she will fight for the working American even harder than Exxon Eddie fights for billions of dollars in taxpayer funded corporate welfare:
The Budget Reconciliation Bill, signed by President Bush and passed by Congress, cut future spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Student Loans and even free and reduced lunches for poor children; all while giving a $2.3 Billion tax break to Oil Companies and affording a $5.7 billion slush fund to Pharmaceutical Companies (both of which Representative Ed Whitfield has personal financial investments and large campaign contributions). Corporate welfare for profitable companies who donate heavily to Congressmen is corrupt and scandalous. I will
work diligently against the culture of corruption which permeates the political system.
http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…
Yes, the citizens of Kentucky’s First District are waking up to the fact that Exxon Ed Whitfield will never lead in trying to bring about the changes we need. This is because not only has he taken tens of thousands in special interest money, but because he is actually invested in and profiting from the policies that impeed progress. Yes, Exxon Eddie will keep doling out welfare to Corporate America, because he is invested in them, not the workers of Kentucky.
We need a REAL Representative in Kentucky’s First District. We need a Representative that understands our citizens because she lives and works among them. We need a Representative that is invested in the working men and women of this district and indeed the whole country, not Exxon, Chevron and the Big Drug companies. We need Heather Ryan for Kentucky!!
Thanks so much for making this all happen. We are so proud of our grassroots support both within and without the district. Heather is very good at making every penney count as you can see.
Our race is just getting started. If we get the resources we need, we WILL defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield this fall and return this seat to where it was for generations, Democratic hands. To do this we need your continued support!! Please consider supporting me in my attempt to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20. As you can see, your money IS going to work IMMEDIATELY to expand our Congressional majorities. Please support the continuation of our work here:
http://www.actblue.com/page/am…
To those of you who have already supported Americans for Ryan, you have my humble thanks. Together, we WILL make a difference in this race and our Congress!!!
Best wishes fellow Democrats!!
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Childers | (D) | 33,138 | 49% |
| Greg Davis | (R) | 31,066 | 46% |
| Steve Holland | (D) | 782 | 1% |
| Glenn McCullough | (R) | 957 | 1% |
| Wally Pang | (I) | 724 | 1% |
| John Wages | (G) | 397 | 1% |
RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | WCBI | Clarion-Ledger
11:09PM: Ladies and gentlemen — give it up for SSP’s Trent Thompson! With all the votes in, Childers is sitting at 49.39% and short 409 votes of an outright victory tonight — awfully close to his projection at 10:45.
10:54PM (Trent): With a little more help, Childers could have put this race away tonight. Let’s help make sure we don’t have the same regrets on runoff night.
10:45PM: SSP’s Trent Thompson: “If the other Prentiss boxes come in at the county’s percentages, Childers gets 49.367 and would have needed 400 more votes to top 50.”
10:42PM: Wow, we came SO CLOSE to winning a seat in Mississippi tonight, but the AP just called this as going to a runoff on May 13th. So close, yet so far.
10:31PM: NOTE — The Dispatch has 100% of the Clay County numbers in, and they split 65-29 (1,609-722) for Childers. These are NOT reflected in the numbers above.
10:25PM: NOTE — The Clarion/AP numbers don’t count Clay county yet, but the Columbus Dispatch shows Childers carrying the county with 63%.
10:23PM: Childers has pulled ahead by 300 votes!
10:14PM: It’s close — 47% Childers, 48% Davis. There’s probably not enough votes out there to put Childers above the top, but the good news is that the votes likely aren’t there for Davis, either.
9:59PM: 47% Childers, 49% Davis. This is gonna be tight.
9:42PM: Check the Clarion-Ledger for the best results. DeSoto is ALL in, so there’s a chance that Childers will force a runoff here.
9:31PM: Damn! Davis has pulled ahead. Are we seeing DeSoto come in?
9:06PM: A word of caution — I don’t know if Davis’ homebase, GOP-heavy DeSoto county, has started to report yet. I suspect that it has not. Brace yourselves for it, though.
9:03PM Eastern: In Lowndes County, Childers only trails Davis by 4. This is a pretty Republican county, so I take that as good news for Childers.
Feel free to use the grace period to post your predictions in the comments.
For what it’s worth, here were the vote totals from the April 1st primary runoff:
| Candidate | Votes |
|---|---|
| Travis Childers | 20,729 |
| Steve Holland | 15,439 |
| Greg Davis | 16,830 |
| Glenn McCullough | 16,305 |
Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8PM Eastern.
There are only four races worth watching in the Keystone state tonight, and the Pennsylvania Department of State will be posting the returns as they come in:
PA-03 (D): Results
PA-05 (D & R): Results
PA-10 (R): Results
PA-18 (D): Results
The Swing State Project’s rundown of these races can be found here.
(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)
From the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Jim Schellinger(D): 41%
Undecided: 12%
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Jim Schellinger (D): 46%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%
(MoE: ±2.8%)
“My Man Mitch” Daniels also uttered a heretical statement in front of a group of Republicans, stating that it’s “time to let Ronald Reagan go.”
Now this is interesting. Ashley Casey, a “new media consultant” from Baton Rouge and former aide to Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R), is running as an independent in the special election to replace Rep. Richard Baker. She hasn’t raised a lot of money, but she did receive an eyebrow-raising check in the mail today:
Sue Kelly
Katonah, New York 10536
Employer: Self
Occupation: Former CongresswomanDate Contributed = 04/22/2008
Amount Contributed = 1000.00
Yup, that’s right — Sue Kelly, the former NY GOP Congresswoman whose career was put to its merciful end by Democrat John Hall in 2006, cut a thousand dollar check to an indie candidate when her party needs all the help they can get to hold on here. I wonder what she’s got against Woody Jenkins?
Also of note: it’s interesting that Kelly lists “Former Congresswoman” as her occupation. Around these parts, we call that being unemployed.
Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi, the subject of retirement speculation for months, will reveal his re-election decision this Saturday over a few pints of root beer:
The Wyoming Republican, 64, will make the announcement at 10 a.m. at city hall in his hometown of Gillette, where he served as mayor. He and wife Diana then will host an ice cream social with root beer floats.
Enzi’s silence about his political future has led to speculation that he may consider not running again. His relatively slower fundraising pace, plus his anger over decisions by Republican leaders to twice deny him a committee assignment that by seniority should have been his, led to questions about the prospect of his retirement.
[…]
Enzi will make the announcement in just one city, not launch his campaign with multiple stops around the state. When Enzi announced his first Senate campaign in April 1996 and his re-election bid in March 2002, he held events in Casper.
That could be taken as an indicator he might retire — but like the fundraising totals, is not a definitive sign, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, which analyzes national races.
“It always seems to me that races start a little later in Wyoming, and someone like Sen. Enzi is probably not anxious to raise a lot of money he’s not going to need,” Gonzales said.
“Unless you’re his immediate family, you’re probably in the dark on this one,” he added.
There has also been some speculation that Enzi might take the unusual step of trading terms with Sen. John Barrasso, letting Barrasso run for a full six-year term, while Enzi would run to fill the remaining four years of the late Sen. Craig Thomas’ term. This move would allow Enzi to make his retirement in 2012 instead of 2014. We’ll see.
Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell begins his first re-election bid with a big lead in the polls against his leading GOP challengers, according to a new poll by Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) for the American Hospital Association (likely voters, 3/9-11):
Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 50%
David Schweikert (R): 24%
Undecided: 26%Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 49%
Laura Knaperek (R): 26%
Undecided: 25%
(MoE: ±5%)
(Source: House Race Hotline)
By now, y’all know that President Bush, Governor Jindal, and Senator Vitter are coming to town tonight to raise money for John N. Kennedy.
This is why Senator Landrieu’s campaign just sent out an email asking for a mere $5 to show Mr. Kennedy and his brand new amigos in the Republican Party that she’s got more grassroots support.
So if you can forego that cup of coffee from CC’s, PJ’s or Starbucks for the next few days, drop her some coin by clicking on the image to the right. Let’s show the Republican Party that they cannot count on Louisiana this fall.