Swing State Project

While the rest of the blogosphere has its attention fixed on the Pennsylvania presidential primary, there are a few other races worth keeping an eye on tonight:

• MS-01: The main event.  Voters in north Mississippi go to the polls for the third time today in order to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker.  Despite the district’s R+10 lean, Democrat Travis Childers, a Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, is running a hard-charging race against the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

  Davis waged a scorched earth campaign against his primary opponent, former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, and he has extended the same negativity against Childers in the special election.  Might it backfire?  From a New York Times profile on the race:

  Even Republicans acknowledge that the race appears to be close. The party has turned to advertisements questioning, among other things, care at a nursing home owned by Mr. Childers, a campaign style that has disconcerted some Republicans more used to the genteel politicking of candidates who have long known one another in a largely rural, close-knit district.

  “It could go either way,” said Alan Nunnelee, a Republican state senator in Tupelo. “People are frustrated with the aggressive campaign tactics that have been used, particularly on the Republican side. The Republican camp has been much more aggressive than people in northeast Mississippi are used to.” Mr. Nunnelee said he was nonetheless sticking with his party.

  Not so one of the state’s Republican eminences, Jack Reed Sr., who once ran a credible race for governor and led the Mississippi Economic Council. A businessman in Tupelo, he is supporting Mr. Childers, citing “the personal appeal of the candidate” and “dissatisfaction with the Bush administration.”

  As a sign of just how seriously national Republicans are taking this race, the NRCC has spent $292,000 on media and mail against Childers, while the DCCC has spent $141,000 against Davis.  I get the sense that Democrats are operating in a wait-and-see mode here, and if Childers performs well enough to force this race into a runoff on May 13th, we just might see the DCCC amplify their efforts here.  Recent comments from DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen seem to back this up:

  “We have been very creative in using the funds that we’re allowed to coordinate with the other side … which has greatly boosted the TV buy that Childers did,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Monday. “This is a two-step process. If nobody gets over 50 percent of the vote tomorrow, you go to the next round.”

  With voter fatigue and voter confusion likely high in this district, expect this one to be a very low-turnout affair.  As to who that benefits, that’s anyone’s guess at this point.

  SSP will be liveblogging the results as they come in tonight.  Check back with us later for the score.

• PA-03:  GOP incumbent Phil English once looked like a ripe target for defeat this cycle.  His 2006 performance (54%) against a no-profile Democratic challenger and his district’s R+1.6 PVI seemed alluring for a strong challenger.  Alas, the current crop of Democratic candidates here have yet to impress.

  Erie City Councilor Kyle Foust, once highly touted by the DCCC, has turned out to be a fundraising dud — only raising $61K in the first quarter of 2008 and sitting on $43K cash-on-hand.  His primary opponents, faith-based activist Mike Waltner, labor lawyer Tom Myers, and Lake Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper have fared a bit better in the money race, but not overwhelmingly so.  There’s still a chance that this one could turn into a real race, but the primary winner will have to step up his or her efforts big time.

• PA-05:  A longshot’s longshot, this R+9.7 open seat has drawn three Democratic contenders: Iraq War vet and former Senate aide Bill Cahir, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken, and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.  Vilello picked up the endorsement of Gov. Ed Rendell, while Cahir (who has the backing of Rep. Patrick Murphy), has been the clear leader in the money race so far, bringing in $121K during the first quarter of 2008.

  The GOP primary has been a huge mess, with nine candidates on the ballot and no clear front-runner.  Matt Shaner (the Club For Growth’s pick), Derek Walker, Jeff Stroehmann and Glenn Thompson seem to be the front-runners, but Walker recently suffered some bad news when he was busted on burglary and criminal trespass charges.  Oops.

• PA-10: Frosh Dem incumbent Chris Carney must be enjoying the GOP fratricide here between businessmen Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser.  Hackett has enjoyed the full-throated support of the nutters at the Club For Growth, but his campaign has also come under fire recently due to allegations that he held pro-choice views last year.  This one has been expensive and bloody.
• PA-18:  Similar to PA-03, this one looked like a compelling target earlier in the cycle, but none of the Democratic candidates have caught on fire yet.  Businessman Steve O’Donnell has self-funded to the tune of $260,000, and he faces off with consultant Beth Hafer and businessman Brien Well for the Democratic nod.  Hafer, the daughter of Barbara Hafer, the state’s former treasurer and auditor general, will have a name recognition advantage here.

(Cross-posted from www.jane08.com)

Many politicians use Earth Day for their own purposes, focusing on environmental issues for one day a year.  However, global warming doesn’t take a vacation for the other 364 days a year – and neither can we. That’s why Jane Mitakides has decided to walk the talk of green solutions by making her campaign carbon neutral, and committing to work for renewable energy and green jobs when elected to Congress.

By underwriting carbon offsets from CarbonFund.org, an organization that helps individuals, businesses, and organizations to eliminate their carbon footprints, the Mitakides campaign becomes the first one of the first congressional campaigns in the nation (and the first in Ohio) to take responsibility for their own greenhouse gas emissions. Jane sees investing in renewable energy as the first step in a process that will create jobs and protect the environment.  The fossil fuels that cause climate change and keep us beholden to foreign dictatorships can no longer be at the foundation of our economy.

Creating tax incentives for clean energy sources will allow these industries to flourish, and instead of supporting unnecessary tax subsidies for Big Oil, she will work to pass such incentives when in Congress. Greening our economy is a no-brainer: between fighting global warming, creating green jobs, and saving consumers across the board, this should be a priority in Congress. Jane Mitakides intends to be a leader in Congress, and that starts now by having a campaign that takes responsibility and utilizes real solutions for our challenges.

Try as they may, the GOP just can’t catch a break in the open seat race to replace the embattled Rep. Rick Renzi.  It appears that their extensive efforts to recruit former state Senate President Ken Bennett to join the race have failed:

Prescott Republican and former Arizona Senate President Ken Bennett told The Insider this afternoon that he has decided against a campaign for the 1st congressional District.

Business concerns, namely his March appointment as CEO of an alternative energy firm, were the main dissuading factor, Bennett said. If he had won election to the seat, he would have had to cut virtually all ties with the corporation, known as GeoBio Energy.

Bennett joins a long list of no-show GOP candidates in this R+2.2 district, including Arizona Corporations Commissioner Kris Mayes and state Rep. Bill Konopnicki.  Sydney Hay, the president of the Arizona Mining Association and the leading GOP candidate by default, has a very conservative profile, and her zealous support of the Iraq War could help make her the next Randy Graf.

Update: Man, Hay really is a nutter.  Take a look at these gems from her website:

We have taken the consumer out of health care. This is one major reason why costs have risen so dramatically. When someone else is paying the bill, there is no incentive to negotiate price, to shop around, to even contemplate whether a high-priced procedure is truly necessary.

Uh, Sydney?  Health care isn’t the same thing as shopping for groceries, or installing a new granite countertop in your kitchen.

More:

I can think of nothing that strikes a deeper blow against our nation’s character than abortion on demand.

I learned about the need to abolish the income tax in favor of the FAIR tax from my friend, one of the foremost leaders of this movement, Alan Keyes.

Ronald Reagan said it was “a time for choosing.”We are again faced with a time for choosing. Do we choose to support our troops as they defend us in the War on Terror, or do we, as the Democrats would have us do, retreat and face our enemy on our home land?

First and foremost, it is the role of the Federal Government to defend this nation. We can debate the appropriate strategy for winning the War on Terror, and we should. But, let us remain firm in our resolve that our troops need our utmost support in this war and we should do everything in our power to give them what they need, when they need it.

Do you want the folks that were in charge of the Hurricane Katrina relief efforts in charge of your Mom’s cancer treatment?

She is INSANE.  I love it!

Another Busy Week – Less Than 1 Day To Go!!!

I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.

Later in the week on Thursday, I had an afternoon radio interview on WPHB followed in the evening with a trip to Clarion for the Clarion University Young Dems Spring Unity Banquet. The Clarion Young Dems have a very involved and active group. They have had representation at every 5th District candidate event held in Clarion throughout the campaign. It was great to get a final chance to meet with them before Election Day. We also had people in attendance throughout the day at the stops by President Clinton in Brookville, St. Marys and Clearfield.  The crowd in Clearfield to see Pres. Clinton wrapped around the front of the Clearfield Middle School and wrapped around onto Mill Rd.  Everyone was in high spirits and thankfully the weather cooperated.  Our campaign stopped and talked about the issues important to citizens of the 5th District and we feel that our message was warmly received by the gathered crowd.

Friday, I traveled to DuBois to participate in Eyes Wide Open, a traveling exhibit to help educate the public on the real costs of the Iraq war. The exhibit contained several banners that describe the monetary costs of the war and compares what we could do here in the United States with the funds. The most moving part of the exhibit was the 183 pairs of military boots with the names attached of the fallen PA soldiers and civilians who have died in Iraq during the conflict. It was a very moving exhibit and should make our resolve even stronger to end the conflict and bring the troops home as soon as possible.

On Saturday, we attended the annual Blue White Game at Penn State. It was a warm sunny day and it was a lot of fun working the tailgate parties in the parking lot. However, I found 2 things: 1 – The majority of Penn State fans travel in from outside of the 5th district, and 2 – A good number start drinking the hard stuff early in the morning and have no interest in politics once the alcohol takes effect. I do want to thank State Rep. Scott Conklin, the PSU College Dems and the Obama State College Campaign Staff for hosting a great tailgate event.  One note from the blogger:  You can see more about the Blue White Game in the CDT article written by Mike Joseph.  It can be found here:although I’m not sure if I would make a good caddy.

The week ended today with a trip back over to Happy Valley to work the line waiting to attend Sen. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Penn State. It was an excited group waiting to see Sen. Clinton and their spirits were high in spite of a cold downpour that started around 5:30. I really enjoy the one on one campaigning that we were able to do both Saturday and Sunday.

I’ll close this last report before Election Day with a round of thanks to everyone who has helped with the campaign thus far. We started back in mid-January and what has been accomplished so far is because of everyone who has been involved. I also want to thank and wish the best of luck to all the Democratic candidates who are on the ballot on Tuesday. It’s been a privilege to campaign and attend events with these people.

Finally, I want to give a special thank you to my 2 fellow Democratic candidates in the 5th District race. I truly admire the way Rick, Bill and I have focused on the issues of this campaign, met with the voters and kept our campaigns positive. I’ve told several people over the last week, our party and our eventual nominee in the 5th district will be stronger because of the positive campaigns all 3 of us ran. Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, we are tested and ready to take on the Republican candidate in November. I have a stronger opinion today than I did in January when I started the campaign – a Democrat WILL be elected in the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

One final note: Please tell as many people as you can – Support Mark B. McCracken for Congress – #1 on the Democratic Ballot.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

It seems that everyone is supporting Don Cazayoux in the contest for Louisiana's sixth congressional district– even the incoming president of the College Republicans at Louisiana State University.  Smoot Carter, a junior at LSU, announced his support for Cazayoux at a news conference last Thursday, prompting Louisiana Federation of College Republicans Chairman Rudy Perciful Jr. to ask Carter to resign.  Republican candidate Woody Jenkins' past includes support for the notorious bigot David Duke, a controversy that appears to have influenced Carter's decision. 

“I decided to support Don Cazayoux, and felt that the 1,600 students I represent in the College Republicans could not stand for anti-Semitism,” Carter said.

Sounds like more good news for our side! 

As Oregon approaches its primary election on May 20, House Speaker Jeff Merkley continues to gather significant endorsements.  Two publications have recently expressed their support for Merkley in his campaign to secure the Democratic nomination so that he can unseat Gordon Smith in November.

Just Out, the leading magazine for the LGBTQ community in Oregon, published their endorsement of Merkley on April 18.  The following day the Eugene Register-Guard, the second largest newspaper in Oregon, also wrote about their support of Merkley.

I was pleased to note how both publications highlighted Merkley’s experience and effectiveness as a legislator, because I decided to support Jeff Merkley after observing these qualities myself.  Oregon is fortunate to have two strong progressive candidates, Steve Novick being the other, vying for the Democratic nomination.  The policy differences between the two candidates are minimal, so the focus shifts to other factors like experience and personality.  These two most recent endorsements reiterate what many people have already said about Jeff Merkley-he’s the candidate with the drive to defeat Gordon Smith and the experience to serve as a great Senator for the state of Oregon.

In reference to the 2007 Oregon House session, over which Merkley presided as Speaker, the Register-Guard wrote

That session was the most productive in recent memory, with important achievements in the areas of education funding, civil rights, consumer protection and budgetary stability . . .

A more convincing demonstration of leadership would be hard to find.

And Just Out wrote that Merkley

has the most proven track record and is best poised to unseat incumbent Gordon Smith.

The endorsements for Merkley continue to bloom.

Personally, I’m most excited about the fact that Max Cleland is coming out to Oregon to campaign with Merkley.  Check out Merkley’s endorsements page and you’ll see the long list of endorsements from a wide range of individuals and organizations.  I love seeing all this support behind a great candidate like Jeff Merkley.  Here’s where you can lend your support too.

Good news:

In a move that will make Alaska a battleground in the 2008 election, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) will make his candidacy for Senate official on Monday, his campaign said Sunday.

Begich, who currently has an exploratory committee, was widely expected to enter the race eventually. He will make stops in Anchorage and Fairbanks to launch his candidacy for the seat of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who is under federal investigation for his ties to the Veco Corp.

This will be a monster of a race.  Begich, as well as the Democratic nominee against Rep. Don Young, will provide an enormous opportunity for Alaska voters to turn the page on the crumb-bum politics and legal woes of the state’s congressional delegation.

UPDATE: Congratulations to Matt Browner-Hamlin, friend of SSP and former Dodd Internet guru, who will be serving as the Begich campaign’s Online Communications Director.

Not long after racking up the endorsement of MS-01’s biggest newspaper, the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal, Democrat Travis Childers was endorsed today by the Columbus Commercial Dispatch in the special election to fill the seat of now-Senator Roger Wicker:

Travis Childers, of Booneville, is the best man for the job. The Prentiss County chancery clerk has a broader understanding of north Mississippi’s needs than opponent Greg Davis and two others on Tuesday’s special-election ballot.

Childers has business experience, tenacity and proven political skills, all qualities that make him more suited for the job than Davis, who is Southaven’s mayor and a former state House member.

[…]

Childers, a Democrat, is a consensus-builder who’s shown he’s not a strident partisan. Davis, a Republican, has proved to be a negative, anything-goes campaigner.

Childers also stands right on one of the most compelling political issues of our times: what the U.S. should do about the war in Iraq. He wants to pull our troops out within a year or so. We must extract our troops from this bloody and costly quagmire that has killed more than 4,000 American soldiers and wasted billions of federal dollars.

Davis apparently wants to defer to Army generals to judge when, or if, the U.S. should conclude its occupation of Iraq. This is clearly a decision for politicians to make in accords with our system of civilian control of the military. The American people clearly want a halt to this debacle.

Columbus is the population seat of Lowndes County, which supported Davis’ primary challenger, Glenn McCullough, by a 62-38 margin.  Hopefully this endorsement might help Childers narrow the edge in this Republican-friendly county.  I have yet to see any publication of note in Mississippi give its endorsement to Davis.

Davis and the NRCC are throwing the kitchen sink at Childers, so the results on Tuesday night will be worth watching to see how effective their money is in an R+10 district like this one.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.

(Tip o’ the hat: Cotton Mouth)

In a recent exchange of emails, Thomas E. Fuller, Democratic candidate for Congress in Alabama’s First District, assured progressives that “you will not be  disappointed in my stand on the issues or my commitment to Democratic Principles.” This was in response to a direct inquiry involving withdrawal from Iraq, support for S-CHIP, retroactive immunity for telecoms, and tax breaks for billionaires. It will be a pleasure to support a true Democrat as a change from incumbent Bush-bot, Jo Bonner.

Fuller is the chair of the Washington County Democratic Party and will need support from all Progressives to unseat the detestable Bonner.

There are 435 seats in the House.  

Some are near locks for one party or the other.  Some are close.  No race is a sure thing (50 state strategy) but the races that were close in 2006 are clearly the ones that are most likely to switch in 2008.  One reason they might switch is fundraising.  So, below the fold, I look at districts that were within 10 points in 2006

Financing info is from the FEC

Polling info is from Election Inspection

The DCCC list is here

SSP ratings are   here

District AZ-01

Incumbent Renzi (R)

2006 opponent Ellen Simon

Margin and notes 52-43, remainder to a Libertarian.

Current situation

     Renzi is retiring.

     Allan Affeldt (D)     no recent info

     Ann Kirkpatrick (D)  $660K raised, $465K COH

     Jeff Riley (D)       $220K raised, $216K COH, $205K debt

     Howard Shanker (D)   $137K raised, $34K COH,  $9K debt

     Ellen Simon (D)      $13K raised,  $0  COH, $252K debt

     Mary Kim Titla (D)   $169K raised, $49K COH

     Sydney Hay  (R)      $268K raised, $222K COH, $70K debt

     Preston Korn (R)     $19K  raised, $10K COH, $3K debt

Assessment AZ-01 went 54-45 for Bush, but it’s still possible.

   SSP rating: Tossup

   On the DCCC list

District AZ-05

Incumbent Harry Mitchell (D)

2006 opponent JD Hayworth

Margin and notes 50-46. Mitchell had a million less to work with, and Hayworth was the incumbent.

Current situation  

        Mitchell (D): $1.3 millon raised, $1.1 million COH

        Schweikert (R): $681K raised, $514K COH, $250K debt

        Ogsbury (R):    $427K raised, $353K COH, $250K debt

        Knaperek (R):   $100K raised, $44K COH

        Anderson (R):   $55K raised,  $70K COH

Assessment

        SSP rating: Leans D

        On the DCCC list

District CA-04

Incumbent John Doolittle (R)

2006 opponent Charlie Brown

Margin and notes 49-46; Doolittle raised $2.4 million, Brown $1.6

Current situation

    Doolittle’s done, he’s  and Brown is running again.

    Charlie Brown (D) $950 K raised, $590K COH, $26K debt

    John Wolfgram (D) no funding info

    Eric Egland (R)  $193K raised,   $49K COH

    John Holmes (R)  $26K raised,  $0 COH

    Tom McClintock(R) $316K raised, $126K COH

    Doug Ose (R)     $2.4 million raised, $801K COH, $1.0 million debt

Assessment  This is a rare case where it would have been easier to run against an incumbent….but still, it bears watching.  

     SSP rating: Lean R

     On the DCCC list

District CA-11

Incumbent Jerry McNerney (D)

2006 opponent Richard Pombo

Margin and notes 53-47, even though McNerney was  outspent by $2 million.

Current situation

    Jerry McNerney (D): $1.6 million raised, $1.1 million COH, $48K debt

    Dean Andal (R):   $638K raised, $531K COH, $25K debt    

Assessment  Bush took CA-11 by 54-45 in 2004, it’s an R+3 district.   But McNerney has a fundraising lead and name recognition

     SSP rating: Lean D

    On the DCCC list

District CO-04

Incumbent  Marilyn Musgrave (R)

2006 opponent Angie Paccione

Margin and notes 46-43, Musgrave spent over $1 million more and was the incumbent.

Current situation  

   Betsy  Markey (D)      $594K raised, $376K COH, $25K debt

   Marilyn Musgrave (R)   $1.4 million raised, 1.0 million COH, $16K debt

Assessment

      SSP rating: Lean R

      On the DCCC list

District CT-02

Incumbent  Joe Courtney (D)

2006 opponent Rob Simmons

Margin and notes 73 votes out of 242,000. Courtney got $2.4 million to Simmons $3.2. Simmons was the incumbent

Current situation

 Joe Courtney (D)  $1.5 million raised, $1.2 million COH

 Sean Sullivan (R) $230K raised, $121K COH

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District CT-04

Incumbent Christopher Shays (R)

2006 opponent  Diane Farrell

Margin and notes 51-48. Shays raised $3.8 million, Farrell just under $3 million. Shays was the incumbent

Current situation    

  Jim Himes (D)    $1.4 million raised, $1.1 million COH

  Chris Shays (R)  $1.6 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Assessment To be equal in fundraising to the incumbent is impressive.

    SSP rating:  Lean R

    On the DCCC list

District FL-08

Incumbent Ric Keller (R)

2006 opponent  Charlie Stuart

Margin and notes  53-46.  Keller was the incumbent and raised $1.7 million.  Stuart raised $1 million

Current situation

  Alexander Fry (D) $19K raised, $15K COH

  Alan Grayson (D)  $142K raised, -$4K COH, $75K debt

  Corbett Krohler (D) $59K raised, $0 COH, $54K debt

  Mike Smith (D)     $443K raised, $296K COH

  Charles Stuart (D) $415K raised, $316K COH, $101K debt

  Quoc Va Banh (D) $3K raised, $0 COH

  Bob Hering (R) $69K raised, $53K COH, $20K debt

  Ric Keller (R) $742K raised, $735K COH

  Todd Long (R)  $192K raised, $17K COH

Assessment

  SSP rating: Likely R

   On the DCCC list

District FL-13

Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R)

2006 opponent  Christine Jennings

Margin and notes 369 votes out of 237,000; Jennings raised $3 million, but Buchanan had $8 million. This was the most expensive race in the country. Katharine Harris’ old district

Current situation

    Christine Jennings (D) $1.1 million, $483K COH

    Vern Buchanan (R) $2.3 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Assessment

 Polls: Early March – Buchanan 53, Jennings 37SSP rating:

 SSP rating: Likely R

 On the DCCC list

District FL-16

Incumbent Tim Mahoney (D)

2006 opponent  Joe Negron

Margin and notes 50-48; this was Mark Foley’s seart.  Mahoney raised $2.8 million and Negron $800K

Current situation

    Tim Mahoney (D)     $2.1 million raised, $1.0 million COH

    Gayle Harrell (R)   $546K raised, $256K COH, $25K debt

    Thomas Rooney (R)   $691K raised, $421K COH, $25K debt  

    Rob Siedlecki (R)  no funding info

    Hal Valeche (R)    no funding info

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District FL-22

Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

2006 opponent  Clay Shaw

Margin and notes 51-47; Shaw, who was the incumbent, raised $5 million; Klein raised $4 million

Current situation

  Ron Klein (D)  $2.2 million raised, $2.1 million COH, $18K debt

  Marc Flagg (R) $64K raised, $0 COH

  Clay Shaw (R)  $62K raised, $11K COH

  Allen West (R) $101K raised, $57K COH

Assessment

  SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

   On the DCCC list

District GA-08

Incumbent Jim Marshall (D)

2006 opponent  Mac Collins

Margin and notes 51-49; Marshall, the incumbent, held off Collins. Each raised about $2 million

Current situation

   Jim Marshall (D)  $1.0 million raised, $1.2 million COH, $7.5K debt

   Robert Nowak (D) $10K raised, $1K COH

   Rick Goddard (R) $577K raised, $404K COH

Assessment

     SSP rating: Leans D

     On the DCCC list

District GA-12

Incumbent John Barrow (D)

2006 opponent Max Burns

Margin and notes 864 votes of 140,000, Barrow, who was the incumbent, held off Max Burns, who used to hold this seat. Each had a little over $2 million.

Current situation  

 John Barrow (D)      $1.4 million raised, $1.3 million COH, $65K debt

 Rodney Edenfield (R) $14K raised, $0 COH

 Raymond McKinney (R) $35K raised, $10K COH, $17K debt

 John Stone (R)       $61K raised, $43K COH

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District ID-01

Incumbent Bill Sali (R)

2006 opponent  Larry Grant

Margin and notes 50-45, Sali raised $1 million, Grant about $750K

Current situation  

    Walter Minnick (D) $629K raised, $321K COH

    Bill Sali (R)      $405K raised, $124K COH, $145K debt

    Matt Salisbury (R) $41K raised, $5K debt

Assessment ID-01 is about as Republican as districts get – Cook PVI of R + 19.  But Sali is crazy. Larry Grant withdrew and endorsed Minnick.  

    SSP rating: Likely R

    On the DCCC list

District IL-06

Incumbent Peter Roskam (R)

2006 opponent  Tammy Duckworth

Margin and notes 51-49.  This is Henry Hyde’s old seat, it was open in 2006, and Duckworth raised more than Roskam ($4.5 million to $3.5 million)

Current situation

  Jill Morgenthaler (D)      $307K raised, $161K COH, $10K debt

  Peter Roskam (R)           $1.4 million raised, $967K COH

Assessment

 SSP rating:  Likely R

 On the DCCC list

District IL-08

Incumbent Melissa Bean (D)

2006 opponent  David McSweeney

Margin and notes 51-44.  Bean, the incumbent, held off David McSweeney, although he raised $5.1 million to her $4.3 million, and this is a R+5 district.

Current situation

  Melissa Bean (D)     $2.2 million raised, $1.4 million COH, $17K debt

  Randi Scheuer (D)    no funding info

  Steve Greenberg (R)  $522K raised, $5K COH, $153K debt

Assessment

    SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District IL-10

Incumbent Mark Kirk (R)

2006 opponent Dan Seals

Margin and notes 53-47. Kirk, the incumbent, raised $3.5 million to Seals’ $1.8 million.

Current situation

  Dan Seals (D) $1.47 million raised, $745K COH

  Mark Kirk (R) $2.95 million raised, $2.92 million COH

Assessment

 Polls: Early Feb.  Kirk 46 Seals 39

 SSP rating: Lean R  

   On the DCCC list

District IN-02

Incumbent Joe Donnelly (D)

2006 opponent  Chris Chocola

Margin and notes 54-46. Donnelly ousted Chocola, though he had less than half as much money (1.5 million to 3.4 million)

Current situation

 Joe Donnelly (D)    $1.1 million raised, $713K COH, $49K debt

 Luke Puckett (R)    $5K raised, $0 COH

 Joseph Roush (R)    no funding info

 Anthony Zirkle (R)  no funding info

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District IN-03

Incumbent Mark Souder (R)

2006 opponent  Thomas Hayhurst

Margin and notes 54-46. Souder, the incumbent, and Hayhurst each raised about $700K

Current situation

   Michael Montagno (D) $205K raised, $181K COH

   Mark Souder  (R)     $315K raised, $211K COH

Assessment For an incumbent in a close race, Souder’s fundraising is pretty anemic.

  SSP rating: Not rated    

District IN-09

Incumbent Baron Hill (D)

2006 opponent  Mike Sodrel

Margin and notes 50-45.  Hill ousted Sodrel, despite raising less ($1.9 million to $2.7 million)

Current situation

 Baron Hill (D) $1.1 million raised, $862K COH, $49K debt

 Mike Sodrel (R) $201K raised, $166K COH, $1.2 million (!) in debt

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Lean D  

   On the DCCC list

District IA-02

Incumbent Dave Loebsack (D)

2006 opponent  Jim Leach

Margin and notes 51-49; Loebsack ousted Leach; each raised about $500K

Current situation

 Dave Loebsack (D)          $561K raised, $425K COH

 Lee Harder (R)             $9K raised, $5K COH, $1K debt

 Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) $68K raised, $68K COH      

 Peter Teahen (R)           $66K raised, $34K COH, $32K debt

Assessment

   SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

District IA-03

Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D)

2006 opponent  Jeff Lamberti

Margin and notes  52-46. Boswell, the incumbent, and Lamberti each raised about $2 million

Current situation

 Leonard Boswell (D)  $983K raised, $841K COH

 Ed Fallon (D)        $172K raised, $20K COH, $17K debt

 Kim Schmett (R)      $70 (no K!) raised, $70 COH, $700 debt.  

Assessment $70? Is that a joke?

  SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

   On the DCCC list

District KS-02

Incumbent Nancy Boyda (D)

2006 opponent  Jim Ryun

Margin and notes 51-47.  Boyda ousted Ryun, raising $700K to his $1 million. In 2004, Boyda lost to Ryun, 56-41.

Current situation

   Nancy Boyda (D)   $993K raised, $811K COH, $287K debt

   Lynn Jenkins (R)  $682K raised, $426K COH, $101K debt

   Jim Ryun (R)      $1.2 million, $489K COH    

Assessment

  SSP rating:  Lean  D

   On the DCCC list

District KY-03

Incumbent John Yarmuth (D)

2006 opponent  Anne Northrup

Margin and notes 51-48. Yarmuth ousted Northrup, he raised about $2.2 million to her $3.4 million.

Current situation

 John Yarmuth (D)    $1.0 million raised, $811 COH

 Bob DeVore (R)      no funding info

 Corley Everett (R)  no funding info

 Anne Northrup (R)   $494K raised, $428K COH

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District KY-04

Incumbent Geoff Davis (R)

2006 opponent Ken Lucas

Margin and notes 52-43. Davis, the incumbent, raised $4.2 million to hold off Ken Lucas, who raised $1.5 million

Current situation

  Michael Kelley (D)    $7 K raised, $3K COH, $3K debt

  Geoff Davis (R)       $1.4 million raised, $720K COH, $85K debt

  G. E. Puckett (R)     no funding info

  Warren Stone (R)      no funding info  

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Not rated (very likely R)

District MI-07

Incumbent Tim Walberg (R)

2006 opponent  Sharon Renier

Margin and notes 50-46. The seat was open and Renier raised only $55K to Walberg’s  $1.2 million.  

Current situation

  Sharon Renier (D) $2 K raised, $45 (no K) COH, $5K debt

  Mark Schauer (D) $905 K raised, $751 K COH

  Tim Walberg (R)  $830 K raised, $604 K COH

Assessment  Very impressive to be outraising an incumbent.

 Polls:  Feb/March – Walberg 51 Schauer 40

 SSP rating: Lean R

 On the DCCC list

District MI-09

Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R)

2006 opponent  Nancy Skinner

Margin and notes 52-46. Knollenberg, first elected in 1992, raised $3 million.  Skinner raised about $400K

Current situation  

  Gary Peters (D)       $750K raised, $645K COH, $2K debt

  Joe Knollenberg (R)   $1.8 million raised, $1.3 million COH

Assessment

   SSP rating: Lean R  

   On the DCCC list

District MN-01

Incumbent Tim Walz (D)

2006 opponent  Gil Gutnecht

Margin and notes 53-47. Walz ousted Gutnecht relatively easily, raising about $1.3 million to Gutnecht’s $1.7 million

Current situation

    Tim Walz (D)        $1.6 million raised, $1.0 million COH

    Brian Davis (R)     $222 K raised,  $50K COH,  $34K debt

    Dick Day (R)        $226K raised,   $72K COH,  $23K debt

    Randy Demmer (R)    $223K raised,   $3K COH,   $119K debt

    Mark Meyer (R)      $27K raised,    $0 COH

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District MN-06

Incumbent Michele Bachmann (R)

2006 opponent  Patty Wetterling

Margin and notes 50-42.  This seat was open and Wetterling actually raised a bit  more than Bachmann ($3million to $2.7 million)

Current situation

      Bob Olson (D)            $268K raised,  $112K COH, $160K debt

      Elwyn Tinklenberg (D)    $260K raised,  $102K COH

      Michele Bachman  (R)     $1.5 million raised, $1.0 million COH

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely R  

   On the DCCC list

District NV-02

Incumbent Dean Heller (R)

2006 opponent  Jill Derby

Margin and notes 50-45.  The seat was open, Derby and Heller each raised about $1.6 million

Current situation

     Jill Derby (D)          $144K raised,  $134K COH

     Dean Heller (R)         $981K raised,  $808K COH, $370K COH

Assessment

    SSP rating:  Likely R

    On the DCCC list

District NV-03

Incumbent Jon Porter (R)

2006 opponent  Tessa Hafen

Margin and notes 48-47.  Porter, the incumbent, raised $3 million to Hafen’s $1.5

Current situation

     Robert Daskas (D)   $584K raised, $453K COH

     Andrew Martin (D)   $379K raised, $204K COH, $295K debt  

     Jon Porter (R)      $1.6 million raised, $1.0 million COH, $14K debt

Assessment

  SSP rating: Lean R

   On the DCCC list

District NH-01

Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D)

2006 opponent  Jeb Bradley

Margin and notes 51-49.  An amazing race.  Bradley, the incumbent, raised over $1 million. Shea-Porter raised less than $300K.

Current situation

  Carol Shea-Porter (D)  $663K raised,  $546K COH

  Jeb Bradley (R)        $566K raised,  $516K COH,  $300K debt

  John Stephen (R)       $337K raised,  $258K COH

Assessment

  SSP rating: Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District NH-02

Incumbent Paul Hodes (D)

2006 opponent  Charles Bass

Margin and notes 53-46.  Hodes ousted Bass (who had beaten him by 20 points in 2004) raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2

Current situation

    Grant Bosse (R)    $15K raised, $10K COH

    Bob Clegg  (R)     $120K raised, $86K raised, $100K debt

    Jennifer Horn (R)  $71K raised, $31K COH, $15K debt

    Jim Steiner (R)    $14K raised, $11K COH

    Paul Hodes(D)      $1.3 million raised, $832K COH, $157K debt

Assessment

  SSP rating:  Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District NJ-07

Incumbent Michael Ferguson (R) who is retiring

2006 opponent  Linda Stender

Margin and notes 49-48. Ferguson, the incumbent, raised $3 million and just held off Stender, who raised almost $2 million

Current situation

  Linda Stender (D) $1.0 million raised,  $840K COH

   Kelly Hatfield $106K raised,  $94K COH, $60K debt

   Michael Hsing  $16K raised, $13K COH

   Leonard Lance $294K raised, $256K COH, $139K debt

   Martin Marks  $123K raised, $104K COH, $75K debt

   Thomas Roughneen No funding info

   Victor Sorillo   No funding info

   Kate Whitman   $444K raised, $307K COH

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Tossup

   On the DCCC list

District NM-01

Incumbent Heather Wilson retiring

2006 opponent  Patricia Madrid

Margin and notes 861 votes out  of 210,000. Wilson, the incumbent, raised $4.9 million to Madrid’s $3.4 million

Current situation

   Joseph Carraro               no funding info

   Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)   $224K raised, $139K COH, $6K debt

   Martin Heinrich (D)          $666K raised, $342  COH, $1K debt

   Robert Pidcock (D)           $36K raised, $9K COH, $34K debt

   Rebecca Vigil-Giron (D)      $6K raised, $2K COH, $15K debt

   Darren White (R)             $46K raised, $297K COH

Assessment  Looks good.

  Polls: October – White 51 Heinrich 33

  SSP rating: Tossup  

  On the DCCC list

District NY-19

Incumbent John Hall (D)

2006 opponent   Sue Kelly

Margin and notes  51-49.  Hall ousted Kelly, raising $1.6 million to her $2.5 million

Current situation

  John Hall (D)     $1.5 million raised, $1.1 million COH.

  George Oros (R)   $62K raised,  $60K COH, $10K debt

  Kieran Lalor (R)  $87K raised,  $63K COH, $13K debt

Assessment

    SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District NY-20

Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

2006 opponent John Sweeney

Margin and notes 53-47. Gillibrand ousted Sweeney farily easily, raising $2.5 million to his $3.4

Current situation

 Kirsten Gillibrand (D)     $3.1 million  raised, $2.5 million COH

 Michael Rocque (R)         $222K raised, $52K COH

 Alexander Treadwell (R)    $1.68 million raised, $929K COH

 Richard Wager (R)          $415K raised, $197 COH

 John Wallace (R)           $74K raised,  $4 K COH

Assessment

  SSP rating: Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District NY-24

Incumbent Michael Arcuri (D)

2006 opponent  Ray Meier

Margin and notes 54-45.  Arcuri raised $2.2 million to Meier’s $1.6 million for this open seat

Current situation

  Michael Arcuri (D)  $919K raised $591K COH

  No opponents

Assessment  So far, it’s a free ride

      SSP rating: Likely D  

   On the DCCC list

District NY-25

Incumbent James Walsh (R)

2006 opponent  Dan Maffei

Margin and notes 51-49.  Walsh, the incumbent, raised $1.8 million to hold off Maffei, who raised $900K

Current situation Walsh is retiring.

   Dan Maffei (D)       $847K  raised $676K COH

   Dale Sweetland (R)   No funding info

   David Gay (R)        No funding info

Assessment Hehe.  An open seat, in a swing district, and neither GOP candidate has even filed reports with the FEC

  Polls:  February  Maffei 41  Cappuccilli 29 (but Cappuccilli has quit)

  SSP rating: Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District NY-26

Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R)

2006 opponent  Jack Davis

Margin and notes 52-48.  Davis raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5.3

Current situation  Reynolds is retiring.

   Jack Davis (D)  No funding info

   Alice Kryzan (D)     $287K raised, $207 COH   $97K debt

   Jon Powers  (D)     $598K raised, $402K COH

   No Republican  has filed

Assessment  Will the Republicans find anyone?

   SSP rating: Tossup

   On the DCCC list

District NY-29

Incumbent Randy Kuhl (R)

2006 opponent  Eric Massa

Margin and notes 51-49.  Kuhl and Massa each raised about $1.5 million, but Massa couldn’t knock Kuhl out

Current situation

  Eric Massa (D)       $868K  raised, $565K COH

  Randy Kuhl (R)       $628K  raised  $366K COH

Assessment  Massa continues to out-raise the incumbent (1st Q Massa got $278K to Kuhl’s $111.  Prime pickup

       SSP rating:  Lean R

   On the DCCC list

District NC-08

Incumbent Robin Hayes (R)

2006 opponent  Larry Kissell

Margin and notes 329 votes out of 121,000.  Hayes, the incumbent, raised $2.5 million, Kissell almost won, raising just $800K

Current situation

  Larry Kissell (D)   $392K raised,  $137K COH

  Robin Hayes (R)     $1.3 million raised, $793K COH

Assessment

 Polls: November – Kissell 49  Hayes 47

 SSP rating: Lean R

   On the DCCC list

District NC-11

Incumbent  Heath Shuler (D)

2006 opponent Charles Taylor (R)

Margin and notes Shuler raised $1.8 million to oust Taylor, who raised $4.4 million

Current situation

   Heath Shuler (D)        $795 K raised, $626K COH

   John Armor (R)          no funding info

   Spence Campbell (R)     $188K raised,  $29K COH

   Carol Mumpower (R)      $3K raised, $1K COH, $3K debt

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely D

District OH-01

Incumbent   Steve Chabot (R)

2006 opponent  John Cranley

Margin and notes 52-48.  Chabot, the incumbent, raised $3 million to Cranley’s $2 million

Current situation

   Steven Dreihaus (D)      $695K raised, $567K COH

   Steve Chabot (R)         $1.3 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Assessment

      SSP rating: Lean R  

   On the DCCC list

District OH-02

Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R)        

2006 opponent  Victoria Wulsin (D)

Margin and notes 50-49.  Schmidt, the incumbent, raised $2 million to Wulsin’s $1 million

Current situation

  Victoria Wulsin (D)  $771K raised, $211K COH, $21K debt

  Jean Schmidt (R)     $566K raised, $177K COH, $277K debt

Assessment To be outraising the incumbent is good.

 Polls:  Mid March – Schmidt 51 Wulsin 33

 SSP rating:  Lean R

   On the DCCC list

District OH-15

Incumbent  Deborah Pryce (R)

2006 opponent  Mary Jo Kilroy

Margin and notes 1,055 votes of 220,000.  Pryce, the incumbent, raised $4.7 millon, Kilroy raised $2.7 million

Current situation Pryce is retiring.  

  Mary Jo Kilroy (D)   $1.2 million raised, $944K COH, $62K debt

  Steve Stivers (R)    $789K COH, $600K COH

Assessment

  SSP rating: Tossup

   On the DCCC list

District PA-04

Incumbent Jason Altmire (D)

2006 opponent  Melissa Hart

Margin and notes 52-48.  Altmire raised $1.1 million to oust Hart, who raised $2.2 million

Current situation

  Jason Altmire (D)  $1.6 million raised, $1.3 million COH, $1K debt

  Melissa Hart (R)   $529K raised, $323K COH

Assessment If Hart can’t win, as the incumbent, with a fundraising edge, can she win as a challenger with a big deficit?

  SSP rating:  Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District PA-06

Incumbent Jim Gerlach (R)

2006 opponent  Lois Murphy

Margin and notes 51-49.  Murphy (who also ran in 2004) raised $4 million to Gerlach’s $3.5 million

Current situation  

 Bob Roggio (D)   $205K raised, $168K COH, $60K debt

 Jim Gerlach (R) $1.5 million raised, $715K COH

Assessment

 SSP rating: Likely R

   On the DCCC list

District PA-08

Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D)

2006 opponent  Mike Fitzpatrick

Margin and notes 1,518 votes of 250,000.  Murphy raised $2.4 million to oust Fitzpatrick, who raised $3.2 million

Current situation

  Patrick Murphy (D)  $2.2 million raised, $1.7 million COH, $1K debt

  Thomas Manion (R)   $422K raised, $417K COH

Assessment

     SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District PA-10

Incumbent Christopher Carney (D)

2006 opponent  Don Sherwood

Margin and notes 53-47.  Carney raised $1.5 million to oust Sherwood, who raised $2.3 million

Current situation

  Christopher Carney (D)   $1.3 million raised, $967K COH

  Chris Hackett (R)        $931K raised, $175K COH, $490K debt

  Dan Meuser (R)           $1.5 million raised, $70K COH, $925K debt

Assessment

 Polls: December – Carney 53 Meuser 23

                   Carney 55 Hackett 21

 SSP rating:  Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District TX-23

Incumbent Ciro Rodriguez (D)

2006 opponent  Henry Bonilla

Margin and notes 54-46 in special runoff.  Only 70,000 votes.  Rodriguez raised $1 million to oust Bonilla who raised $3.8 million.

Current situation No Republican opponent

Assessment Free ride

    SSP rating: Likely D

   On the DCCC list

District VT-AL

Incumbent Peter Welch (D)

2006 opponent  Martha Rainville

Margin and notes 53-45.  This seat was open after Bernie Sanders got elected to the Senate

Current situation No declared Republicans

Assessment So far, a free ride.  VT’s filing doesn’t close until July 22 though.  Welch has $828K COH

         SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

District VA-02

Incumbent Thelma Drake (R)

2006 opponent  Phil Kellam (D)

Margin and notes 51-48. Drake, the incumbent, raised $2.3 million to hold off Kellam, who raised $1.7 million

Current situation

  Glenn Nye (D)      $253K raised, $223K COH

  Thelma Drake (R)   $1.0 million raised, $594K COH  

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Likely R

   On the DCCC list

District WA-08

Incumbent Dave Reichert (R)

2006 opponent  Darcy Burner

Margin and notes 51-49.  Reichert, the incumbent, and Burner each raised $3 million

Current situation

  Darcy Burner  (D)  $1.4 million raised, $922K COH, $24K debt

  Dave Reichert (R)  $1.4 million raised, $698K COH

Assessment

   SSP rating:  Lean R

   On the DCCC list

District WI-08

Incumbent Steve Kagen (D)

2006 opponent  John Gard

Margin and notes 51-49.  This seat was open.  Kagen raised $3.2 million ot Gard’s $2.8 million

Current situation

 Steve Kagen (D)    $1.1 million raised, $760K raised, $469K debt

 John Gard (R)      $555K raised, $428K COH

Assessment

  SSP rating: Lean D

   On the DCCC list

District WY-AL

Incumbent Barbara Cubin (R)

2006 opponent  Gary Trauner

Margin and notes 1,012 votes of 200,000. The Libertarian got 7,481.

Current situation Cubin is retiring (what a shame!)

   Gary Trauner (D)     $648K raised,   $550K COH,  $500 debt

   Kenn Gilchrest (R)   no funding info

   Mark Gordon (R)      $412K raised, $86K COH

   Cynthia Lummis (R)   $171K raised, $141K COH

   Swede Nelson (R)     no funding info

   Dan Zwonitzer (R)    $9K raised, $4K COH

Assessment

   SSP rating: Likely R

   On the DCCC list