Swing State Project

Senate Republicans

1. Virginia***

Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore

Total Raised — $6,300,000 v. $402,000

Cash On Hand – $4,380,000 v. $208,000

(Likely Democratic Pick-up)

2. New Mexico***

Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce

Total Raised — $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000

Cash On Hand – $2,600,000 v. $854,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

3. New Hampshire

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu

Total Raised — $2,566,000v. $4,143,000

Cash On Hand – $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

4. Colorado***

Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer

Total Raised — $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000

Cash On Hand – $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

———————————————————————

5. Alaska

Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens

Total Raised — $280,000 v. $2,071,000

Cash On Hand – $250,000 v. $1,300,000

(Toss Up)

6. Minnesota

Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman

Total Raised — $9,359,000 v. $8,640,000

Cash On Hand – $3,500,000 v. $7,000,000

(Toss Up)

7. Oregon

State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith

Total Raised — $1,371,000v. $4,274,000

Cash On Hand — $474,000 v. $5,100,000

(Toss Up)

8. Maine

Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins

Total Raised — $3,656,000 v. $5,068,000

Cash On Hand – $2,700,000 v. $4,500,000

(Toss Up)

———————————————————————

9. North Carolina

State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole

Total Raised — $562,000 v. $4,855,000

Cash On Hand – $515,000 v. $2,664,000

(Lean Republican Retention)(12/31/07 Fundraising Numbers)

10. Mississippi-B***

Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker

Total Raised — $448,000 v. $3,000,000

Cash On Hand – $337,000 v. $2,750,000

(Lean Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

11. Oklahoma

State Senator Andrew Rice v. Incumbent Senator James Inhofe

Total Raised — $970,000 v. $3,168,000

Cash On Hand – $597,000 v. $2,221,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

12. Idaho***

Former Congressman Larry LaRocco v. Lieutenant Governor James Risch

Total Raised — $555,000 v. $1,129,000

Cash On Hand – $253,000 v. $935,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

13. Georgia

State Representative Jim Martin v. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss

Total Raised — $346,000 v. $4,407,000

Cash On Hand – $333,000 v. $3,637,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

14. Kansas

Former Congressman Jim Slattery v. Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts

Total Raised — $289,000 v. $3,205,323

Cash On Hand – $286,000 v. $2,986,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

15. Nebraska***

Scott Kleeb v. Former Governor Mike Johanns

Total Raised — $274,000 v. $2,018,000

Cash On Hand – $281,000 v. $1,330,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

16. Kentucky

Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell

Total Raised — $808,000 v. $7,908,000

Cash On Hand – $666,000 v. $7,741,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

Senate Democrats

1. Louisiana

Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu v. State Treasurer John Kennedy

Total Raised — $5,447,000 v. $1,907,000

Cash On Hand – $4,564,000 v. $1,623,000

(Likely Democratic Retention)

Notes:

– *** = Open Seat

– I separated the two parties and their respective competitive/potentially competitive races  

– I rounded all the fundraising numbers down to the nearest $1,000

– North Carolina doesn’t report fundraising numbers till 4/24/08

– DSCC and NRSC haven’t made public their March fundraising numbers

– The long lines are to breakdown the tiers that I see the Senate races in.  

– I am trying to predict the spending of the DSCC and NRSC when providing my projected outcome – I don’t believe in saying, “Well, if the election were held today…” because if the election were held today, that means for the past two months we’d be getting commercials from both sides.  Simple as that.  

Democratic Offensive

Tier 1 = VA, NM, NH, CO

Tier 2 = AK, MN, OR, ME

Tier 3 = NC, MS

Tier 4 = OK, ID

Tier 5 = GA, KS, NE, KY

Republican Offensive

Tier 1 = LA

Overview

– 6 Republican Senators Retired (CO, ID, MS, NE, NM, VA)

– Republican Seats: 1 Likely Dem Pickup – 3 Lean Dem Pickup – 4 Toss Ups – 2 Lean Rep Retention – 6 Likely Rep Retention – 7 Safe Reps

– Democratic Seats: 1 Lean Dem Retention – 11 Safe Dems

– Current Breakdown of the US Senate: 51D – 49R

– Prediction = 6-9 Democratic Pickups in the US Senate

– Projected Breakdown of the US Senate: 59D – 41R

Fundraising for the Respective Committees(2/29/08)

DSCC v. NRSC

Total Raised — $64,100,000 v. $39,300,000

Cash On Hand – $32,800,000 v. $15,300,000

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-06 – R+?,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

VA-01 – R+9,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

So 413 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 179

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 5

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

GA-03 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Georgia, New York and Wisconsin. Thats 39 states with a full slate, and 3 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

The NRCC’s expenditures for the day:

MS-01: $18,054 spent on phone banking against Democrat Travis Childers.

Total spent to date: MS-01: $292,194 | LA-06: $120,194

The DCCC’s expenditures for the day:

MS-01: $14,809 on producing and airing an ad against Republican Greg Davis.

LA-06: $2,230 on field organizing for Democrat Don Cazayoux, and $6,175 on producing an ad against Woody Jenkins.

Total spent to date: MS-01: $141,386 | LA-06: $331,213

Survey USA shows Gov. Christine Gregoire leading in her rematch against Republican Dino Rossi (likely voters, 4/7 in parens):

Christine Gregoire:50% (48%)
Dino Rossi:46% (47%)
(MoE=±4%)

From SUSA:

Rossi leads by 11 points among men; Gregoire leads by 20 among women — a 31 point gender gap. Voters under age 50 narrowly break for Rossi; Gregoire leads by 9 among voters 50+. 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for Rossi; 7% of Republicans vote for Gregoire. Independents split 5:4 for the incumbent. Gregoire wins by 13 points in metro Seattle; Rossi leads by 2 points in the rest of Western Washington and by 12 points in the eastern part of the state.

If you haven’t done so yet, be sure to check out the useful “Resources” section on the right-hand sidebar. Among other things, we’ve got a sortable filing date/congressional primary calendar, and a sortable table of presidential voting by congressional district. Good stuff!

Remember when John Boehner hollered at his fellow caucus-members to get off their “dead asses“? It looks like that necrotic Republican ass-flesh is staying firmly put:

Senior Republicans have ignored the impassioned plea of House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) that they help the party raise more money for the November election.

While the ranking Republicans of several committees have given tens of thousands of dollars to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), others have given nothing or very little.  

…

The appeal eventually moved Rep. Jim McCrery (La.), the senior Republican on the Ways and Means Committee. He gave $100,000 to the NRCC from his personal campaign account on the last day of March. He gave $500,000 in 2007.

But other ranking Republicans have not given anything since Boehner’s pep talk.

McCrery, of course, is retiring, so he doesn’t even need the money.

Anyhow, no matter that the exhortation came from Boehner, Tom Cole will almost inevitably take the blame for the NRCC’s shoddy performance, as well he should. But could misfortune eventually redound to Boehner as well? May the gods of schadenfreude smile upon us!

The Tupelo-based Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal endorsed Democrat Travis Childers this morning:

Travis Childers of Booneville, the top vote-getter among all candidates in party primaries completed on April 1, is the best candidate on the ballot. Childers is the Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, and his successful, positive and issues-focused campaign in the Democratic primary helped put him in the November general election. […]

Davis unfortunately continues in the special election the same timbre of intensely negative campaigning he used against McCullough in the Republican primary. While negative campaigning crafted by cynical political professionals has sadly become commonplace in elections today, Davis – with assistance in the special election campaign from the National Republican Congressional Committee – has focused on distortions of his opponents’ records and attacks on their personal integrity that are beyond the muddied norm.

This is precisely the kind of scorched-earth politics we need less of in Washington, not more. […]

Childers stands squarely in the mainstream of a long line of people who have ably represented our total 1st District region’s interests in the U.S House.

We support his election.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.

This just in: the DCCC has announced that congressional challengers Ashwin Madia (MN-03) and Walt Minnick (ID-01) have been added to the Red to Blue program.  Madia, fresh off the official endorsement of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota, is running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Jim Ramstad (R).  Madia is a particularly notable figure because of his humble roots– he grew up in poverty, the son of immigrants from India– and because of his service as a Marine in the Iraq War.  His only Republican opponent at this time is State Rep. Erik Paulsen.

Walt Minnick is a Harvard-educated businessman and an advocate for environmental conservation.  He has a moderate track record in terms of his work for both political parties.  In running against Congressman Bill Sali, Minnick will give residents of the Boise region a chance to be represented by a competent person, rather than a complete nutjob.

So, congrats to both, and bravo to the DCCC– strength in numbers!  Woohoo!

The NRCC’s expenditures for the day:

• LA-06: $10,000 on a poll.
• MS-01: $8,800 on a poll, and $32,666 on direct mail against Democrat Travis Childers.
• The NRCC’s expenditures to date:
  
  MS-01: $274,140 | LA-06: $120,194

The DCCC’s bill for the day:

• LA-06: $23,223 on direct mail against Republican Woody Jenkins, and $2,420 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.
• The DCCC’s expenditures to date:
  
  MS-01: $126,576 | LA-06: $322,807

Mary Christine and Associates for the Republican Main Street Partnership (likely voters, 4/9-10):

Jim Ryun (R): 50%

Lynn Jenkins (R): 34%

(MoE: ±5%)

With Kansas’ primary on August 5th, Jenkins has time to make up the missing ground here, but Ryun is sitting in a strong position in the money race and the polls.  Will the Kansas GOP really embrace a “moderate” like Jenkins, the state’s treasurer?