Swing State Project

Well, well.  It looks like a familiar face is reemerging to take on frosh GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan — only this time, as an independent:

In what could be a damaging blow to Democratic hopes of winning the 13th Congressional District seat, former party nominee Jan Schneider has filed to run again for the seat, but this time as an independent.

“I’ve had it with both political parties,” said Schneider, 60, who will be making her fourth try for the seat.

Schneider says she will run as an anti-war candidate dedicated to bringing the troops home.

Schneider hasn’t made her decision final, but her move to split the anti-GOP vote is tantamount to running for the “Stay in Iraq Forever” Party.  Consider the golden material that Buchanan is offering Democrat Christine Jennings:

Buchanan, 56, could not be reached for comment. But Tim Clarke, a campaign spokesman, said Buchanan continues to support President George W. Bush’s views on the war. He said Buchanan wants to fight the terrorists “over there instead of over here.”

You couldn’t ask for a dumber statement, yet Schneider is content to allow this Bush-enabler to saunter his way to a second term.  And the reason why?  She’s offended for not being shown the attention she clearly deserves from the DCCC!

She said she considered running as a Democrat, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not returned her phone calls.

“They don’t want me in their party,” Schneider said.

Wonderful.  Schneider, born in 1947, celebrates her sixth birthday this summer.

Now this is something.  Lynn Caligiuri, who served as GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s campaign and finance director since 1999, has joined the campaign of Democrat and state’s attorney Frank Kratovil a few months after the moderate Gilchrest was defeated in a primary by the Club For Growth-backed nutcase Andy Harris.  From the Politico:

Lynn Caligiuri, who worked on all of Gilchrest’s reelection campaigns, called Kratovil’s campaign “the best opportunity to continue the thoughtful, moderate approach that Gilchrest has brought to the district for nearly two decades” and endorsed the Democrat. […]

“Obviously many of us were disappointed in the Republican primary results, but we now have an opportunity to send someone to Washington to continue to represent our values and end the partisan attacks and divisiveness that has rendered Congress ineffective and unresponsive,” said Caligiuri. “Frank Kratovil is the right choice.”

Could this be a harbinger of a Gilchrest endorsement for Kratovil?

Jane Mitakides, a Responsible Plan endorsee running in the Ohio Third, has reported $164,252.53 in total receipts for the first quarter of fundraising.

With money coming in at more than twice the rate of her opponent, Jane will be able to run an aggressive campaign that builds on the record-breaking Democratic turn-out in the March 4th primary and the changing dynamic of a district that is trending blue.

Some speculate that Mike Turner’s dwindling support is due to ethical issues and frequent exaggerations that are affecting his campaign’s bottom-line.

Jane Mitakides, a Responsible Plan endorsee running in the Ohio Third, has reported $164,252.53 in total receipts for the first quarter of fundraising.

With money coming in at more than twice the rate of her opponent, Jane will be able to run an aggressive campaign that builds on the record-breaking Democratic turn-out in the March 4th primary and the changing dynamic of a district that is trending blue.

Some speculate that Mike Turner’s dwindling support is due to ethical issues and frequent exaggerations that are affecting his campaign’s bottom-line.

With her strong grassroots support, Jane won a competitive three-way primary with more votes than her opponents combined, and she still held on to more of her first-quarter raised cash than her opponent, who has spent more than he raised in Q1, even though he was unopposed in the primary.

Fundraising is a tangible measure of support for a race, and it’s big news when a challenger is consistently out-raising an incumbent.  It shows that voters are ready to make change happen and finally end the era of back-room deals and no-bid contracts.

This is a winnable race, but we still have a long way to go – and we’re counting on you to help!

Learn more about Jane at Jane Mitakides for Congress and be a part of the campaign by contributing!

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

Below is a handy table of all the verifiable House polls I could find for the current election cycle. Special election polls are only included for upcoming elections, not for those that are already over. Every poll contains a link and an exact date range. Polling for candidates who have dropped out or decided against running is not included.

Cross posted from Election Inspection.

District	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	43	Harri Anne Smith	38
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	46	Jay Love	27
AL-05	Bud Cramer (D)	Capital Survey Research Center 4/1	Parker Griffith	48	Wayne Parker	32
AK-AL	Don Young (R)	Research 2000 12/3-12/6	Ethan Berkowitz	49	Don Young	42
AZ-08	Gabby Giffords (D)	Summit Group (R) 12/3-12/4	Gabby Giffords	36	Tim Bee	30
FL-13	Vern Buchanan (R)	Public Opinion Strategies 3/5-3/6	Christine Jennings	37	Vern Buchanan	53
FL-24	Tom Feeney (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 7/9-7/11	Suzanne Kosmas	23	Tom Feeney	42
IL-10	Mark Kirk (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 2/7-2/8	Dan Seals	39	Mark Kirk	46
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/8-4/10	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	42
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 3/16-3/20	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	44
MD-01	Wayne Gilchrest (R)	Moore Information 1/15-1/16	Frank Kratovil	22	Andy Harris	37
MI-07	Tim Walberg (R)	EPIC-MRA 2/27-3/2	Mark Schauer	40	Tim Walberg	51
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10/31-11/02	Gary Peters	35	Joe Knollenberg	42
MS-01	Roger Wicker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/3-4/7	Travis Childers	41	Greg Davis	40
NM-01	Heather Wilson (R)	Public Opinion Strategies (R) 10/8-10/9	Martin Heinrich	33	Darren White	51
NY-25	Jim Walsh (R)	Global Strategy Group (D) 2/16-2/20	Dan Maffei	41	Peter Cappuccilli	29
NC-08	Robin Hayes (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 11/13-11/15	Larry Kissell	49	Robin Hayes	47
OH-02	Jean Schmidt (R)	Tarrance Group (R) 3/11-3/12	Vic Wulsin	33	Jean Schmidt	51
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	53	Dan Meuser	23
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	55	Chris Hackett	21
TX-07	John Culberson (R)	IVR 4/8	Michael Skelly	39	John Culberson	57
WY-AL	Barbara Cubin (R)	Mason-Dixon 1/18-1/21	Gary Trauner	41	Cynthia Lummis	40

Based on the polling above, Democrats are likely to pick up at least 5-10 seats, and that’s with many competitive races yet unpolled and many campaigns just starting to rev up. Although there are a few seats held by Democrats that are in danger, none yet polled show us losing to the GOP.

Keep an eye on EI for House and Senate polls updated daily.

SurveyUSA (likely primary voters, 4/13-15):

Kurt Schrader (D): 23%

Steve Marks (D): 20%

Other/Undecided: 57%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

And on the GOP side…

Mike Erickson (R): 44%

Kevin Mannix (R): 40%

Other/Undecided: 17%

(MoE: ±5%)

Not surprisingly, the undecided vote is much smaller among GOP voters.  Erickson was the 2006 nominee for this seat, while Mannix has run for a number of statewide offices in the past.  Former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader, on the other hand, have lower profiles.

It’s no secret that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett (R), who is currently mulling a run for Congress, is the preferred choice of national party leaders.  But does Bennett have the stomach for a gig in Washington?  From the Arizona Capitol Times, via PolitickerAZ:

[Bennett] is awaiting word from Washington on ethics rules regarding his board positions and stock in 4 energy companies, one of which is developing fuel from algae.  ‘If I go back there and every time the question of energy comes up, Ken Bennett’s got to sit on his hands and keep his mouth closed, then what am I doing?’ he told our reporter this morning. ‘I might as well stay here and make fuel out of algae . . .   ‘That stock is my investment for my family,’ he said, adding that early indications are he would have to resign from the boards of those companies.

‘But [even] if I [could] keep those investments, I can’t vote on anything related to energy. It’s unfortunate. Congress was originally intended to be a part-time job where real people left the real world for a few months a year, went back and did what they did and went back and lived in the real world like everybody else. Now, we’re to the point where you really have to give up almost everything else to get back there and do it.’

Doesn’t exactly sound like a candidate with much fire in his belly to me.

It’s looking like a rout in Kentucky.  From SurveyUSA (likely voters, 4/12-14, 3/23-30 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 47% (42%)

Greg Fischer (D): 9% (6%)

David Williams (D): 8% (11%)

James Rice (D): 5% (5%)

Mike Cassaro (D): 5% (4%)

David Wylie (D): 3% (5%)

Ken Stepp (D): 1%

Other: 14% (17%)

Undecided: 8% (8%)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Primary: 5/20.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Tuesday was the deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their fundraising reports for the first quarter of 2008. We’ve amassed a list of noteworthy fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers. While this list is pretty big, it is not meant to be comprehensive. If we missed anything, please post the numbers in the comments. And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding. The second column shows cash-on-hand, and the third shows cycle-to-date fundraising.

Notes:

• NJ filings in italics cover the period from 12/1 through 3/31.
• IL filings in italics cover the period from 1/17 through 3/31, with the exception of IL-14 (2/18-3/31).
• All PA filings cover the period from 1/1 through 4/2.
• All IN & NC filings cover the period from 1/1 through 4/24.
• All numbers are in thousands.

A few quick notes:

• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL), Joshua Segall (AL-03), Bob Lord (AZ-03), Ed Chau (CA-42), Debbie Cook (CA-46), Annette Taddeo (FL-18), Raul Martinez (FL-21), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Joe Garcia (FL-25), Walt Minnick (ID-01), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Kay Barnes (MO-06), Jim Hunt (MT-AL), Eric Massa (NY-29), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Jane Mitakides (OH-03), Linda Ketner (SC-01) [note: her filing covers the period from 8/1-3/31, but the bulk of her fundraising was done this year], Rob Miller (SC-02), Michael Skelly (TX-07), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10), Darcy Burner (WA-08).
• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Deborah Honeycutt (GA-13), Jim Ryun (KS-02), Anne Northup (KY-03).
• GA-12: After barely holding on in 2006, Democrat John Barrow draws a 4th tier challenger with abysmal fundraising ability. Unbelievable.
• Overall, this was a dynamite quarter for House Democrats. Highly-touted GOP candidates like Dean Andal (CA-11), Rick Goddard (GA-08), Steve Greenberg (IL-08) and Lou Barletta (PA-11) are being outpaced by their Democratic opponents, and the list of Dem challengers with burgeoning coffers absolutely dwarfs the GOP’s. It’s no small wonder that the NRCC is turning to self-funding millionaires in their candidate recruitment process this cycle.

This is off-topic from down-ballot races, but I felt compelled to post; the Democratic presidential primary debate in Philadelphia was an embarrassment. Not to our party, mind you, nor to either of our candidates. Rather, it was an embarrassment for the media, and for the entire profession of journalism. The economy is tanking. The war in Iraq continues on as an endless, unmitigated disaster. Next to no one can afford health care. Yet, what questions did these oh-so-esteemed debate moderators throw at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Questions fed to them by the likes of Sean Hannity about Obama's acquaintanceship with a former 60's radical, who is neither a campaign advisor nor a close friend of the senator's.  Questions about whether Clinton believes Obama can win. Questions about Obama's reluctance to wear a flag pin. A flag pin?!?!?!?!  The Bush administration has our country on the ropes and all these media bobbleheads can talk about is a flag pin!?!?!?!?  It's no wonder winning is such an uphill battle for our party; with such idiocy so rampant, I'm amazed that even half the country votes our way!

All the more reason for us to press onward and win these down-ballot seats, where the media spotlight doesn't linger long enough to turn the proceedings into a complete circus.  Progressivism truly has to start from the ground up; in this info-tainment age, it's the only chance we've got!

It looks like the GOP is seriously sweating the special election in Mississippi’s 1st congressional district.  Hot on the heels of a $114K ad buy by the DCCC against GOP candidate Greg Davis, the NRCC has just made an $150K media buy against Democrat Travis Childers.

The new expenditure brings the GOP’s total in this R+10 district to $232,673.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.