Swing State Project

UPDATE:Apparently, the Governor of Louisiana is speaking the Legislature at 1 PM today.  So the Cazayoux campaign needs to postpone the live-blog to a time TBD.  

Please join Don Cazayoux, a State Representative and Democratic candidate for the 6th Congressional District in Louisiana this afternoon at 1 P.M. on Monday, March 31st.  Mr. Cazayoux will take questions regarding his candidacy and issues of importance to Louisianans at Daily Kingfish.

For more info on the race, please read this and this.  

Today is the very last day of the first fundraising quarter. Money raised today will get counted in the reports that get released in two weeks; cash taken in after today won’t get toted up until July. So please make a donation to the Blue Majority candidates – or any favorite Dems of yours – today.

We’re thrilled that we met our goal of 6,500 donations for the page. Now we’re trying to bring each candidate up to 1,000 gifts apiece. Can we do it by the end of the day today? Let’s go for it!

P.S. Please tell us who you’ve given to this past quarter in comments, whether on Blue Majority or elsewhere.

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those 5 races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

The retirement of Gov. Blunt in Missouri, the heated Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the candidacy of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, and Dino Rossi’s attempts to rouse passions in Washington all guarantee that these 4 states will remain competitive to November and keep things interesting on the gubernatorial front. And since both parties control 2 of these 4 most contested governorships, Republicans can at least be relieved that things look more even-handed here than in the Senate and the House.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in December, are available here.

Toss-up (2 R, 1 D)

1. Missouri (Open)

Missouri’s gubernatorial race made a lot of news comparatively to other gubernatorial races. The showdown between Republican Gov. Blunt and Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon had started as early as 2004, and the incumbent’s growing unpopularity had given the early lead to Nixon. But Blunt unexpectedly announced his retirement in late January.

Republicans hurried to find a nominee and they will now have to decide between two strong candidates, congressman Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Either  would keep the race competitive but Nixon undoubtedly has a head start given that he has been preparing his campaign for so long — and that the state’s voters have turned sour on their Republican administration.

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous ranking: 4)

Republican at the federal level, North Carolina remains blue at the state level, and Democrats looked favored to keep the governor’s mansion next year with two strong candidates — Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore — battling for the Democratic nomination. But two factors have made the race more competitive.

(1) The Democratic primary is staying very competitive and now going negative, with Moore needing to shake up the race to contest Perdue’s early edge. (2) Republicans got a potentially very competitive candidate in the race with with the entry of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Polls show McCrory in toss-ups against both Perdue and Moore, with the Democrats holding the slightest of edges.

The GOP primary is also contested, however, and it remains unclear who will emerge to claim the party’s nod. We will now more about the state of play in North Carolina after the May 6th primary.

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous ranking: 2)

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is certainly unpopular and vulnerable, but it is difficult to precisely assess the general election before Democrats settle their nomination race on May 6th. Architect Jim Schellinger has been the establishment’s favored candidate and has far outraised his opposition, but former Rep. Jill Long Thompson could emerge the winner due to higher name recognition. The Indianapolis Star reports that Schellinger’s campaign has been a disappointment while Thompson has been very active and that his fundraising edge could be drowned amidst the presidential race if Clinton and Obama spend millions in ads here in the next few weeks.

Lean Retention (2 D)

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous ranking: 3)

The 2004 campaign never really stopped in Washington, where Republican Dino Rossi lost by 129 votes on the third count after leading the first two ballot counts. Christine Gregoire started off a controversial term and has done her best to overcome the partisan rancor of her first election. Rossi announced his second gubernatorial candidacy in late 2007, and he has been campaigning hard since then, hoping to rouse the passions of 2004, bringing up the recount on the trail to undermine the legitimacy of Gregoire’s incumbency. This race will be tight (and bitter) to the end but Gregoire has been able to somewhat regain her footing over the past few years and built some good will which give her a slight edge to start with.

Check the full rankings with all 11 races here.

You know, thousands of First District Democrats here in Kentucky came to get fired up by a great lady who is running for office. Well, in the end, they got fired up by TWO great ladies running for Congress. Hillary Clinton showed up this year at the Ruby Laffoon event in Madisonville. However, before she even took the stage the crowd was already fired up by a fiery red-head who is ready to fight for this seat!!!

Yes, Heather Ryan, Democrat for Congress in Kentucky’s First District used her time very efficiently in intoducing herself to thousands of Democrats in this huge district. Just watch her speech, courtesy of the good hillbilly:

Now, I must say as a friend and supporter, I am beaming with pride in Heather Ryan. This is her first run for office and she was on the same stage as Governor Steve Beshear and Sen. Hillary Clinton. This was her first time in a venue this important and in front of a crowd this big.

Many of these Democrats had never heard of her, and may not have even known that Exxon Eddie has an opponent. I thought Heather looked very composed under pressure and showed her credentials as a fighting Democrat that suppports One America.

I have been saying all along that if our campaign just gets the funds we need to reach the Democrats in this huge district that we will win. I think this video more than proves my point. These Democrats had never seen or heard of Heather Ryan and she had them fired up to the point of a standing ovation. From what I hear, besides Heather only Hillary herself recieved a standing ovation from this crowd.

We can win this race. I have seen and this video proves that when Democrats get to see and know Heather Ryan they love her. It doesn’t matter if you support Obama or Clinton or supported Edwards, in this district Heather is one candidate Democrats can agree on.

We need the support of our fellow Democrats desperately. This race is under the radar and would be a huge pickup. A race here means less for the cash-strapped Republican Congressional Committee to spend elsewhere. Heather is an awesome Democrat with an awesome message. Please, go here and help us reach the 63% registered Democrats in this district that love Heather if they get to see her:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

You can truly make a difference to an up-and-coming grassroots Democrat that will fight for us in Washington!!!

Help up make history!!

Continuing through the alphabet.

Oregon has 5 representatives: 4 Democrats and 1 Republican

Filing deadline was March 11, primary is May 20

Pennsylvania has 19 representatives: 11 Democrats and 8 Republicans

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is April 22

Rhode Island has 2 districts, both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 25, primary Sept 9

District: OR-01

Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs

Representative David Wu (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, Goli Ameri raised $2.3 million to Wu’s $2.7 million.  In 2006, Derrick Kitts raised about $140K to Wu’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Wu is facing a primary, and then either Stephen Brodhead, CW Chappell or Joel Haugan. No fundraising reports from anyone but Wu, who has $600K COH

Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment  Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA

Representative Greg Walden (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Noah Lemas (no website, no fundraising report)

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents A primary and then Delia Lopez. No fundraising reports from anyone but Blumenauer, who has $465 COH

Demographics 60th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene

Representative Peter DeFazio (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Feldekamp raised $600 K to DeFazio’s $900K; he ran again in 2006, raising $500K to DeFazio’s $750K

Current opponents  None. DeFazio has $360K COH….he should share

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment  Free ride.

District: OR-05

Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.

Representative Darlene Hooley (D) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 53-44

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Zupancic raised $1.3 million to Hooley’s $2 million; in 2006, Mike Erickson raised $1.8 million to Hooley’s $2 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Kurt Schrader

Andrew Foster (no web site), Nancy Moran (no web site),

Steve Marks

Richard Nathe (no website) and a bunch of Republicans.   No fundraising reports from the Dems

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Seems vulnerable, but I don’t know

District: PA-01

Location Some of Philadelphia and some suburbs

Representative Robert Brady (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 86-13

Bush margin 2004  15-84

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Mike Muhammad. No fundraising report.  Brady has $678,000 COH, he should share

Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 8th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-02

Location Philadelphia and suburbs

Representative Chaka Fattah

First elected  1994

2006 margin 89-9

2004 margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 12-87

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Mike Livingston, no fundraising report.  Fattah has $183 COH.

Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-03

Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY

Representative Phil English (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Steven Porter ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $200K each time, English had about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents Kyle Foust $55K raised, $25K COH

Mike Waltner $100K raised, $65K COH

Tom Myers $140K raised, $75K COH

Kathy Dahlkemper $154K raised, $117K COH;

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 50th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list .  The fact that all those Democrats are running is a sign that English is vulnerable.

District: PA-04

Location Western PA, bordering OH

Representative Jason Altmire (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Altmire ousted Melissa Hart, raising $1.1 million, about half what she raised

Current opponents Hart is back for a rematch, but she has a primary challenger (Ron Francis).  Francis has raised $160K, $113 COH; Hart has raised $385K, $332K COH.

Altmire has raised $1.1 million, $911K COH

Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the ninth most vulnerable Democratic seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .  While not safe, Altmire beat Hart, with less money than her, when she was an incumbent.  Now he’s got more money, and he’s the incumbent.  I don’t think it’s quite as vulnerable as Superribbie.

District: PA-05

Location Northern PA, bordering NY.

Representative John Peterson (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 88-12 against a Libertarian

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Don Hilliard raised no money and still got 40%

Current opponents Democrats:

Mark McCracken

Bill Cahir

Rick Vilello

Lots of Republicans. No fundraising numbers from anyone

Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%), 99th most Republican

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 58th most vulnerable Republican seat. The fact that we are competitive here, in a naturally Republican seat, is a really good sign

District: PA-06

Location West of Philadelphia

Representative Jim Gerlach (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents Lois Murphy ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004, she raised $1.9 million to Gerlach’s $2.2 million; in 2006, she raised $4 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Bob Roggio no funding info.  Gerlach has $500K COH

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable,   Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list .  Not sure why Roggio has no FEC numbers

District: PA-07

Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia

Representative Joe Sestak (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sestak ousted Curt Weldon; each raised about $3 million

Current opponents Curt Weldon has $90K COH (but, per comments, appears to not be in it), Craig Williams, no info.  Sestak has $1.7 million COH

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 36th most vulnerable Democratic seat; Sestak’s formidable fundraising advantage makes it a little less vulnerable, I  think

District: PA-08

Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ

Representative Patrick Murphy (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick; Murphy raised $2.4 million to Fitzpatrick’s $3.2

Current opponents Thomas Manion (no funding info); Murphy has $1.2 million COH

Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K),

Assessment   Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .  Another potentially close race, where we appear to have a huge lead in fundraising

District: PA-09

Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV

Representative Bill Shuster (R)

First elected 2001  

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Tony Barr who got 40% with almost no money in 2006, is running again. No funding info on Barr, but Shuster has only $188K COH, not much for an incumbent at this stage

Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino, 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: PA-10

Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ

Representative Christopher  Carney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Carney ousted Don Sherwood, spending $1.5 million to Sherwood’s $3 million

Current opponents  Dan Meuser has raised the most of several Republicans: He has $398 COH; Chris Hackett has $386K; others much less.  Carney has $766K.  

Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Very vulnerable Superribbie ranks it as the 5th most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .

District: PA-11

Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre

Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  Lou Barletta has $851 COH and $300K in debt (hmmmm….). Kanjorski has $1.5 million.  He should share

Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment  Safe

District: PA-12

Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA

Representative John Murtha (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 49-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Diana Irey raised $850K to Murtha’s $3.2 million.

Current opponents William Russell has $25K COH, Murtha has $529K

Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%).  3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: PA-13

Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia

Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Notes on opponents In 2004, this seat was open and Schwartz beat Melissa Brown, raising $4.5 million to Brown’s $1.9 million. In 2006, Raj Bhakta raised $400K to Schwartz’ $2.2 million

Current opponents Marina Kats has no fundraising report.  Schwartz has $1.6 million COH, she should share

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-14

Location Pittsburgh and suburbs

Representative Mike Doyle (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 90-10 (against a Green)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents No Republican; Doyle has $400K COH

Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%), 41st most Democratic

Assessment  Free ride

District: PA-15

Location Central part of eastern NJ, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ

Representative Charlie Dent (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 Kerry won by 786 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Dent beat Joe Driscoll, each spending about $2 million.  In 2006, Charles Dertinger raised little

Current opponents Sam Bennett has raised $194K and has $94K COH; Dent has over $500K COH.  Bennett is one of my favorite candidates.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 32nd most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: PA-16

Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster

Representative Joe Pitts (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Lois Herr ran both times, raising about $80K the first time and $300K in 2006; Pitts raised just under $500K the first time and just over that in 2006

Current opponents Bruce Slater has just $7K COH, to Pitts’ $175K

Demographics 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-17

Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg

Representative Tim Holden (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Scott Paterno raised $1 million to Holden’s $1.6 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Toni Gilhooley has $31K COH to Holden’s $780K

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-18

Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh

Representative Tim Murphy (R)

First elected 2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Each raised about $100K, Murphy raised over $1 million each time

Current opponents Beth Hafer $106K raised, $42K COH

Brien Wall $35K raised, $16K COH

Steve O’Donnell $260K raised, $203K COH

Daniel Wholey $56K raised, $45K COH

Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 60th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list

District: PA-19

Location Southern PA including Gettysburg

Representative Todd Platts (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 91-4 against a Green

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents Phillip Avilo raised $175K against Platts’ $375K

Current opponents Phil Avilo , no fundraising info

Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: RI-01

Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT

Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 36-62

Notes on opponents In 2004, David Rogers and Kennedy each raised about $2 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None; Kennedy has $700K COH, he should share

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment safe

District: RI-02

Location Most of the state

Representative Jim Langevin (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-27 against an Independent

2004 margin 75-21

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents  No money for Republicans

Current opponents None

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

This race caught me eye in a dkos diary earlier this week. Checking the CA-46 tags, there were four pretty much un-noticed diaries this past week talking about CA-46:

The Best Hypocrisy Red Money Can Buy

CA-46 Rohrabacher Allies “Bleed” Mayor Debbie Cook

CA-46 Rohrabacher Allies Smacked Down, Ordered to Pay Costs

CA-46 Rohrabacher Sues Mayor Debbie Cook Again, Loses Again

Wingnut Dana Rohrabacher (R) has easily held this district since winning in 1988 (he won by 23% last time).

This year his opponent will be Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook, (debbiecookforcongress.com) an impressive grassroots progressive. Apparently the California Republican Party is so worried that Rohrabacher may be vulnerable and is facing a strong challenger this time, their Treasurer plus a former Chair of the California GOP filed some frivolous lawsuits against Debbie Cook, essentually just to cause her to have to waste time and money to defend against them.

Happily, on Wednesday an Orange County judge threw out the suit, and Thursday a Sacramento judge ruled against the GOP as well. And Cook’s lawyers will get their fees from the Republicans.  

(Details and many other links are in the about diaries for those interested; Ballot suit draws criticism and Sacramento court sides with H.B. mayor are good news stories.)

It would be sooooo sweet to get rid of Rohrabacher this election. If we’re lucky, the anti-war wave might even reach into solid red Orange County…

Monday’s story SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (3/24/08) put it as Likely R. The PVI is R+6.

My guess is that it will take Cook a couple of tries to crack this nut. Hopefully she can assemble and maintain a good campaign team, and come close this Nov. Then in 2 years unseat Rohrabacher.

Or just possibly after another 2 years in an even smaller Republican minority, Rohrabacher just might decide he’d rather be lobbying for big $$ and call it quits and go surfing.

In a Comment to DavidNYC’s article, Blue Majority Page: Call for Nominations JeremiahTheMessiah raised a point:

**Our dollars can go further in races which, so far, have received less attention and institutional backing.**

So then why is Leslie Byrne on the list? … getting sufficient institutional support, already has Webb doing fundraisers, has a contested primary, etc.

So what’s the answer here?

Much more below the fold.

I grew up in Texas, live in NYC. Never heard nor seen Ms. Byrne nor Mr Connolly. I only know what I read online.

Matt Stoller wrote the intro when she got the nod, so maybe something got him excited. But here at SSP the endorsement got only one Comment, about the competitiveness of the district, not a word about the horse picked in the primary.

Go back to the Comments on Stoller on dKos — I’ve never seen so much negative feedback about a candidate put on the Netroots/Blue Majority list. (Condensed & emphasis added.)

I can only hope that she has learned from past campaigns. She ran very poorly in her statewide Lt Gov race, and does not have a great history as a campaigner.

Not impressed with her. I was her constituent when she was in Congress, heck I was her constituent when she was a delegate & state senator. So I know Ms. Byrne and still cringe over her proposed law to make sleeping in a room in your house other than your bedroom illegal.

Not to pour water on the bonfire … I live in VA-11 and I’m not sure she’s a good fit for this district … a very edgy reputation, comes across as a bit too ideological/partisan for many independents. The voters in VA-11 are VERY moderate and ripe for Dem takeover but not sure if they want someone like her.

She’d be a better rep than Connolly, but I have my doubts she can win. She lost the Lt. Gov. race, and that was not a race we should have lost.

Andy Hurst (the ’06 Dem candidate for the 11th) endorsed Connolly

Hate to be a wet blanket. But Byrne … tends to be abrasive and obnoxious. She lost a number of legislative elections, including a recent contest for the VA State Senate. Connolly is a shoo-in. Moreover, he’s a fine progressive Democrat.

Just before the VA primary, I got either an Email or a flyer with Byrne’s picture and statement in favor of HRC. Can’t find the original. Ms. Byrne now claims not to have endorsed (her husband works for HRC, as she did during the Clinton years).

Gosh, no … my congresswoman growing up, one of the worst attendance records in the VA State Senate … a competitiveness that many find abrasive, a history of alienating colleagues. I voted for her in 2005, but that doesn’t mean I believe she is the best candidate.  Not by a long shot.

I’ll say this: The hope is Leslie Byrne has learned something over the last 15 years. In 1992 my wife and I volunteered for her campaign – worked the phones, licked the envelopes, walked the neighborhoods. She won! In 1994 we called to offer our help: “We don’t need you” we were told …

Altogether only 50 Comments, very few for a frontpage article on dKos. And 5 or 10 were sort of off-topic. Above I tried to avoid quoting anyone more than once. So a huge share of the Comments were decidedly negative.

Oh, yeah. About her bad guy opponent. Gerry Connelly’s website, on the Issues:

“I bring a passion for progressive values, and an ethic of getting things done. I want to bring that same ethic — the expectation that government will work for its citizens — to Congress.”

End the War in Iraq

For 10 years, Gerry Connolly was a senior staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has the experience to work with the new administration to end the war in Iraq and restore American credibility around the world.

Enact Comprehensive Health Care Reform

The next President and Congress must act boldly to control rising health care costs and provide quality, affordable care for the 47 million uninsured Americans. Connolly will work with a broad coalition to design a plan that emphasizes preventive coverage and makes it illegal for insurance companies to deny coverage for preexisting conditions.

Provide Strong Environmental Leadership

Connolly worked with the Sierra Club to champion the “Cool Counties” initiative to combat global warming. In Congress, he will lead the effort to promote energy conservation and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

They say Connolly is pro-business and pro-developer. Well, I hope it takes more than being “pro-business” to get your opponent endorsed around here. And “pro-developer.” Dayum, I thought that was a job requirement for his current position. Somebody wanna work up a short list of all the anti-development county execs elected in the last few decades?

I was very disappointed to see this intervention in a hotly contested primary where for the life of me I cannot see national implications.

This endorsement runs the risk of diverting thousands of dollars from candidates and races that clearly meet the declared standards of the Blue Majority page. When you put Gary Trauner or Joe Garcia on the list, I get excited. Leslie Byrne, not so much.

VA-10 is one of the richest districts in the U.S., part of the extremely costly Washington-Baltimore media market. Now precious Blue Majority dollars will be poured into a big spending primary against a well-funded and popular Democrat, a self-described anti-War progressive. To me that’s a wanton waste of our resources.

(Our dollars can go further in races which, so far, have received less attention and institutional backing.)

Less attention than a costly open-seat race in a newly competitive battleground state?

How blue is the district or state?

Well, how blue is VA? How blue is this district? Is this the one where Blue Majority can make the most difference? Or would that have been Tom Perriello, VA-5, against Virgil Goode? Or even Judy Feder against in VA-10 against Frank Wolf?

In conclusion [insert roar of applause here] the standards for endorsing in a contested primary should be extremely high. If the high hurdles aren’t met, hold off until a nominee is chosen.

Meanwhile put the emphasis back on races like Steve Sarvi in MN, Sam Bennett in PA, Tom Perriello VA-5, Kay Barnes in MO-06, Vic Wulsin in OH-02, Jane Mitakides in OH-03, Anne Barth in WVa-02, Annette Taddeo in FL-18, Betsey Markey in CO-04, — either Ann Kirkpatrick, the front runner, or Mary Kim Titla, a Native American, AFTER the primary — in AZ-01, Jill Derby in NV-02, Debbie Cook in CA-46, or even Chris Rothfuss (WY-Sen).

DavidNYC, you guys need to keep a closer eye on Matt Stoller. Sometimes over there those guys go off and see Bush Dogs where there are none, ya now what I mean?

Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.

Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but  the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their “Red to Blue” program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.

Republican-Held Seats

Tier One: Toss-Up

15th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and west and northwest suburbs, Hilliard, Marysville). Cook PVI R+1.1. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) defeated Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by just over 1,000 votes. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 62.1% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) is running almost like an incumbent after her photo finish in 2006 and the retirement of her opponent. She has raised an impressive amount of money and has strong support from labor, womens’ groups (including Emily’s List) and among students, who are very numerous in this district. She is an energetic campaigner although not the most polished of public speakers. Opponent State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington), an Iraq veteran and former bank lobbyist, is a strong adversary with big support from the business community. Independent candidate Don Elijah Eckhart (I-Galloway) figures to take a few votes away from Stivers.

16th District NE Ohio (includes Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Wadsworth, Medina, Wooster, Ashland). Cook PVI R+3.6. Bush won 54% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Ralph Regula (R), who is retiring, fared poorly in the GOP primary (58% to 43% over conservative Matt Miller (R-Ashland)) and defeated political novice Rev. Tom Shaw (D-Wooster) by the surprisingly narrow margin of 59% to 41% in the general election. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.8% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Iraq veteran and former collegiate baseball star State Sen. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown) is a terrific candidate and is adored in his state legislative district. This congressional district unfortunately includes only a tiny slice of his home turf, but Boccieri is working very hard to build name recognition here and he has the energy and political talent to make it work. Opponent State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R-Canton), a moderate, is strong in vote-rich Stark County but barely escaped a three-way primary against two more conservative opponents. The keys to this election are whether the Republican base turns out for Schuring and whether Boccieri can hold down Schuring’s advantage in blue-trending Stark County while gaining big vote totals elsewhere.

Tier Two: Leans Republican

1st District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and western suburbs). Cook PVI R+1. Bush won 50% of the vote in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Steve Chabot (R) defeated second-time challenger Councilman John Cranley (D) by 53% to 47%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 55.4% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Westwood) defied pundits and polls by holding off a hard-charging challenger last cycle. State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill) is thought to be a stronger opponent because his base is in the suburbs rather than the city, and like Cranley before him he has moderate-to-conservative positions on social issues that should have cross-over appeal in this swing district. Chabot was the target of independent attack ads over his votes against expanding SCHIP during the past year. Independent Rich Stevenson (I) is also in the race.

2nd District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and eastern suburbs, Lebanon, Portsmouth). Cook PVI R+13. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) defeated Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D) by less than 3,000 votes (51% to 49%) in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 57.2% Democratic.

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) has embarrassed herself on the floor of the House with her assault on Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) and by plagiarism in a constituent newsletter and exaggerating her credentials, but she is probably in a stronger position now than 2006 because she has completed a full term in office. Dr. Victoria Wells Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) emerged victorious from a bruising primary in which she endured withering (and unsubstantiated) attacks on her medical ethics. Wulsin takes heart from having outgained Schmidt in their respective primaries (54,965 to 40,891) and from having gained more Democratic votes and coming closer to winning in 2006 than any previous Democratic candidate since 1980. She is an experienced campaigner after two previous outings. Independent David Krikorian (I) is reportedly gathering signatures to join the race.

Tier Three: Likely Republican

14th District NE Ohio (includes northeast suburbs of Akron, Willoughby, Mentor, Ashtabula). Cook PVI R+2. Bush won 52% in 2004. Incumbent Steve LaTourette (R) defeated law professor Lew Katz (D) by 58% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 64.9% Democratic.

Rep. Steven LaTourette (R-Chagrin Falls) has his toughest opponent since he defeated incumbent Eric Fingerhut (D) 14 years ago. Vietnam veteran and former appellate judge William O’Neill (D-South Russell) has good name recognition from his appellate judicial races and 2006 Ohio Supreme Court bid, has raised serious money (although he is still far behind LaTourette), and has a direct, plain-spoken personality (softened by his remarkable second career as a pediatric ER nurse) that should serve him well in this suburban-to-rural swing district. LaTourette’s biggest assets have been his ability to bring home federal dollars, which is blunted by being in the minority, and his reputation as a moderate, which is questionable. LaTourette is somewhat tainted by links to Jack Abramoff and Bob Ney, breaking a promise to vote against CAFTA, and his divorce and affair with a staffer whom he latter married. Unfortunately O’Neill underwent heart bypass surgery recently that will slow him down for another month or so, but he is a determined and formidable candidate who could elevate this to a top tier race.

Tier Four: High Probability Republican

7th District. South Central Ohio (includes southwest suburbs of Columbus, Lancaster, Xenia, Circleville, Springfield). Cook PVI R+6.0. Bush won 57% in 2004. Retiring incumbent Dave Hobson defeated repeat challenger Bill Conner (D) by 61% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 52.9% Democratic.

This race has upside potential because it is an open seat. Corporate attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) emerged from a six-way primary through hard work and a skillful direct mailing campaign. She is a first-time candidate but she has displayed excellent potential for fund-raising, has brought aboard first-rate campaign staff, and is dedicated to taking the necessary steps to run a seriously competitive campaign. I am hoping that she will work on displaying more passion in her public speaking, which on the occasion I heard her was somewhat low-key. State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) is photogenic and has the support of the incumbent but hasn’t particularly distinguished himself as a state legislator.

3rd District. SW Ohio (includes Dayton and southern suburbs, Kettering, Miamisburg). Cook PVI R+3. Bush won 54% in 2004. Incumbent Michael Turner (R) defeated former federal prosecutor Richard Chema (D) by 59% to 41% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.2% Democratic.

This should be a swing district based on the strong performance here by Gov. Ted Strickland in 2006. It was held by Democrat Tony Hall from 1981 to 2003. Unfortunately, incumbent Rep. Michael Turner (R-Centerville) benefits from having been Mayor of Dayton, where most of the Democratic votes are located. Nevertheless, business woman and long-time political activist Jane Mitakides (D) gave Turner a fairly stiff challenge in 2004 (gaining 37.7% of the vote) and figures to improve in her second campaign and with an electorate yearning for change. Questions have been raised about Turner’s ethics, including a no-bid contract that benefited his spouse, and this could give Mitakides something of an opening if she is willing to exploit it.

12th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and northeast suburbs, Dublin, Delaware). Cook PVI R+0.7. Bush won 51% in 2004. Incumbent Pat Tiberi (R) defeated former Congressman Bob Shamansky (D) by 58% to 42% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 56.6% Democratic.

Businessman and political novice David W. Robinson (D) won a tough primary and is an intriguing candidate with possible crossover appeal. He has interesting credentials like a Ph.D. in theology and philosophy, a cross-country bicycle fund-raising trek for Alzheimers research, and working as a Presenter for Al Gore’s Climate Project initiative. If he had the benefit of political experience I’d move this race up to the next tier. [After some reflection I decdied that this race belongs in Tier Four because of the relatively even PVI and the challenger’s strong showing in a tough primary.] Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Westerville) is not a distinguished member of the House but held onto his seat in 2006 with nasty attack ads against his challenger.

Tier Five: Safe Republican

4th District West Central Ohio (includes Mansfield, Findlay, Marion, Lima, Bellefontaine, Sidney). Cook PVI R+14. Bush won 64% in 2004. Freshman Jim Jordan (R) defeated attorney Richard Siferd (D) by 60% to 40% in 2006.

Steelworker and labor union activist Mike Carroll (D-Mansfield) deserves a lot of credit for taking on freshman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana), and this district has the second highest percentage of blue collar workers in Ohio, but it is the reddest district in the state and hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1936.

8th District. West Ohio includes northern Dayton suburbs, Troy, Hamilton, Fairfield). Cook PVI R+12. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent (and House Speaker) John Boehner defeated political novice Morton Meier (D) by 64% to 36% in 2006.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-West Chester)  has enormous campaign resources. Political activist and USAF veteran Nick Von Stein (D-Mason) is a personable and promising young candidate but this hill looks too steep to climb.

5th District. North Central Ohio (includes Norwalk, Bucyrus, Tiffin, Defiance, Bowling Green, Fremont). Cook PVI R+10.1. Bush won 61% in 2004. Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), who defeated repeat challenger Robin Weirauch by 57% to 43% in 2006, died in September 2007 and State Rep. Bob Latta (R) defeated Weirauch by the same margin in a special election in December.

Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) is safe against tanning salon and karaoke entrepreneur George F. Mays (D-Norwalk), formerly a member of the fringe Reform Party.

Democratic-Held Seats

There are no open Democratic seats and at this point there aren’t any Democratic incumbents seriously at risk.

Tier One: Leans Democratic

18th District East Central Ohio (includes Chillicothe, Zanesville, Mt. Vernon, Newark and New Philadelphia). Cook PVI R+6.1. Bush won 57% in 2004. In 2006,  disgraced incumbent Bob Ney (R-Heath) resigned late in the campaign and Dover Law Director Zack Space (D) defeated replacement candidate State Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton) by 62% to 38%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 72.5% Democratic.

Just about a year ago this was considered the NRCC’s number one target nationwide. Rep. Zack Space (D-Dover) has greatly increased his chances of holding this seat by raising over a million dollars and engaging in a remarkable series of high-visibility events throughout this far-flung district. He gets great local press and does strong case work through three district offices. He has staked out relatively conservative (and infuriating)  positions on guns and immigration that help him with conservative voters and buttress his claim to be a political independent. His opponent, former Ohio Director of Agriculture Fred Dailey (R-Mt Vernon), is not a top-notch challenger. He got 39% of the vote in a four-way GOP primary, is not considered an exciting personality or hard-working campaigner, and has lingering problems with some farmers for giving environment-damaging factory farms a free pass while running the Ohio Department of Agriculture. The NRCC and 527’s will probably pour resources into this race to try to take Space out, but he nevertheless seems to be in fairly good shape.

Tier Two: High Probability Democratic

6th District. SE Ohio (includes Athens, Marietta, Steubenville, East Liverpool). Cook PVI D+0.4. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) won the Democratic primary as a write-in candidate (he had filed defective nominating petitions) and cruised to an easy general election win over former Ohio House Speaker Charles Blasdel (R) by 62% to 38% to replace Gov. Ted Strickland in this Appalachian district. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 74.6% Democratic.

Popular Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) should prevail easily over Deputy County Recorder Richard Stobbs (R-Dillonvale) in a district that has trended strongly blue due to the popularity of Gov Strickland.

10th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and southern and western suburbs). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Dennis Kucinich (D) defeated former U.S. government official Mike Dovilla (R) by 66% to 34%.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) would have had a serious primary challenge from rising political force Joe Cimperman (D) if there hadn’t been three other Democrats in the race, but he should be fine against former state representative Jim Trakas (R-Independence) and independent candidate Paul Visokaj (I). [After some reflection I decided that this race belongs in Tier Two because the challenger has campaign experience, the primary revealed significant (although not over powering) dissatisfaction with the incumbent, and the PVI is not as strong as in most of the safer districts.]

Tier Three: Safe Democratic

13th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Akron and eastern suburbs, Cuyahoga Falls, Lorain, Elyria, Brnswick, Strongsville). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 56% in 2004. In 2006 former state representative and labor attorney Betty Sutton (D) won a close Democratic primary and handily defeated Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R) by 61% to 39% in the general election to replace Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon).

The GOP took their best shot when this was an open seat last cycle and lost by a country mile. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley Township) isn’t at risk to political newcomer David S. Potter (R).

9th District North Central Ohio (includes Toledo, Sylvania, Sandusky). Cook PVI D+9. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) defeated electrician Bradley Leavitt (R) by 74% to 26%.

No chance for Bradley Leavitt (R-Toledo) in his rematch against the Dean of the Ohio Congressional Delegation and labor favorite Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in this heavily blue-collar district.

17th District NE Ohio (includes Youngstown, Niles, Warren, Kent). Cook PVI D+14. Kerry won 63% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Tim Ryan (D) defeated Don Manning (R) by 80% to 20%.

No worries for Pelosi protege and potential 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles) over teacher Duane V. Grassell (R-Mogadore).

11th District NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and eastern suburbs). Cook PVI D+33. Kerry won 81.39% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Stephanie Tubbs Jones demolished car salesman Lindsey String by 83% to 17%.

No sweat for Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland) over political unknown Thomas Pekarek (R) in Ohio’s bluest congressional district.

Cross-posted at Ohio Daily Blog

Felipe Sixto, an aide for the Bush administration has resigned today over alleged financial wrongdoing with his former employer, the right-wing Center for Free Cuba. This case has resemblances to the recent RNCC scandal involving Christopher Ward, another Republican political operative who stole money from Republican party funds. Republicans don’t just cheat the country, they cheat their own party and interest groups who fund their campaigns too.

MSNBC:

“Felipe Sixto was promoted on March 1 as a special assistant to the president for intergovernmental affairs and stepped forward on March 20 to reveal his alleged wrongdoing and to resign, White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said Friday. He said Sixto took that step after learning that his former employer, the Center for a Free Cuba, was prepared to bring legal action against him.

Stanzel said the alleged wrongdoing involved the misuse of money when Sixto was an official at the center.”

Joe Garcia, candidate for the 25th district of Florida, released the following statement on the resignation:

“Today’s developments underscore the fundamental flaws of a policy designed to win votes in Miami and patronize partisan supporters — not bring freedom to Cuba.

As I have consistently stated in the past, millions of dollars intended to fuel a democratic change in Cuba are ending up in the hands of Bush/Diaz-Balart cronies and never make it to the island. While some of the funds are being properly used, and the program should continue, it is shameful that Bush/Diaz-Balart sidekicks have used it to take advantage of the generosity of the American taxpayer in order to enrich their friends and political allies.

In 2006, the Bush administration was warned by the Government Accountability Office that federal funds to Cuba were being grossly mismanaged and they did nothing. The GAO uncovered that “USAID’s internal controls over the awarding of Cuba program grants and the oversight of grantees do not provide adequate assurance that the grant funds are being used properly or that grantees are in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.” The report further detailed instances where the review process for granting awards was never completed. The USAID also failed to follow-up with several award recipients to ensure proper use of the funds.

Presented with this compelling evidence, the Bush administration sat on their hands and allowed taxpayer dollars to be wasted. Accordingly, American policy should require that at least 80% of these funds make it to dissident groups on the island. It’s time to move beyond the Bush/Diaz-Balart do-nothing politics of cronyism and corruption.”

This case could have repercussions in our three South Florida congressional races. The Center for a Free Cuba has been an ardent supporter of the Bush agenda and a leading agent against removing the counterproductive restrictions on family remittances and travel to Cuba. The organization has often called Democrats standing in their way communists and Castro supporters and they have already started doing so against our three challengers.

Stories like this show what Republican rhetoric really is about, fear-mongering and reactionary style politics meant to win elections rather than real substance that will bring change to Cuba.

As Joe Garcia recently stated at DWT on a post on Cuba policy and divisive Republican rhetoric, “We need to put control back into the hands of the Cuban people to make Democracy in Cuba possible. The time to act responsibly is now. We must end the demagoguery about Cuba and allow the wishes of the constituents of the 25th district to prevail.”

The end of the fundraising quarter is just days away. Please help Blue Majority endorsed Joe Garcia fight back against Republican tactics on Cuba by contributing to the campaign on Act Blue.

Disclosure: Member of Joe Garcia Campaign team.