Conflict-of-Interest Debbie

A key leader of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by her own admission, has a serious conflict-of-interest:

The national party, enthusiastic about the three Democratic challengers, has not yet selected Red to Blue participants. But Wasserman Schultz has already told the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that if any of the three make the cut, another Democrat should be assigned to the race.

Let’s leave aside for a moment that the first part of this statement is incorrect – the first round of Red to Blue challengers has already been announced. It’s the second sentence that troubles me.

Debbie Dubya co-chairs the Red to Blue program. She has a major say in who gets tapped for it. Yet here she is saying she couldn’t help three awesome candidates – Joe Garcia, Raul Martinez, and Annette Taddeo – if they get picked for that program. But if she’s already so hostile to the idea of them running, don’t you think she might steer the D-Trip away from choosing any of these three for R-to-B status in the first place?

This is a major conflict of interest, one which threatens to hurt not just our South Florida trio, but the fortunes of the Democratic Party as well. I also think it undermines the DCCC, too – what other decisions might start to look suspect? Who else harbors a conflict like this? And which other potential recruits might shy away from running if they thought that the scales were tipped against them?

As James Hell said, there are no recusals in politics. Debbie Dubya has to buck up, heartily endorse all three candidates and throw fundraisers for each of them. If she can’t do that, then she is hopelessly unqualified to perform her job at the DCCC.

An enraged Rahm Emanuel once thundered: “[W]e’ve got a [Republican] target and you’re out there kissing his ass in the press?” Rahm didn’t accept this kind of bullshit from Alcee Hastings, and Chris van Hollen shouldn’t accept it from Debbie Wasserman Schultz. She needs to change her tune, or take a seat on the bench.

AR-Sen: What Will Mark Pryor Do With All That Money?

As you may know, the Arkansas congressional filing deadline has come and gone, and incumbent Dem. Sen. Mark Pryor has drawn no challenger at all – as Monty Python might say, not even a sausage. He also has, as of the last reporting period, $3.6 million cash-on-hand. That’s a lot of scrilla.

So what’ll he do with it? He can donate to other Democratic campaigns, for sure. I presume he can give to state parties, PACs, and perhaps 527s. He can also make an unlimited donation to the DSCC (and I don’t doubt he’ll be asked to make a very large one). But he’s very young – just 45 – and undoubtedly has a long political career ahead of him, as long as he wants one. So I bet he’s inclined to hold on to a lot of that cash, and I can’t really begrudge him.

But I do hope he sees fit to share a good chunk of it. What’s more, without any race this fall, Pryor can also spend lots of time helping out other candidates with fundraisers and mentoring. Be generous, Sen. Pryor!

NY-26: Jack Davis Says Military Service is “Not a Real Job”

You gotta hand it to crazy Jack Davis.  He sure knows how to kick-start a primary campaign in style — by insulting veterans!  From Newsday:

Davis is already taking tough shots.

[Jon] Powers, Davis said, “is a kid. He’s 29 years old and he’s never had a real job,” said Davis. “If we do get into a primary, he won’t have any money left.”

Powers, as you know, served his country with distinction in Iraq.  Is this really the kind of debate that Davis wants to enter as he attempts to buy the goodwill of local Democrats?

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Two Great Ladies, Two First Districts: Victory Edition!!

I live in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. This year, we have a great Democratic Lady running for our Congressional seat, Heather Ryan. Well, we are not the only first district in the south that has an awesome Democratic lady running for their Congressional seat. In the First Congressional District of Louisiana another stellar Democratic woman is running to expand our Congressional majorities. Her name is Gilda Reed.  

Well, the really great news is the fact that Gilda Reed is an awesome Democrat who will fight for us in Washington was not lost upon the Democratic voters in Louisiana’s First District. They rewarded Gilda Reed with a huge victory in their primary the other evening. From Gilda’s site:

The elections, first steps in the new closed party primary system for federal elections, took place in the 1st and 6th congressional districts, which cover much of southeast Louisiana.

In the 1st Congressional District, state Sen. Steve Scalise was forced into a runoff with state Rep. Tim Burns of Mandeville. Scalise had about 48 percent of the vote and Burns 28 percent. The two will face each other in a runoff election 4 weeks from tonight and then face Gilda Reed, the outright winner of the Democrat Primary tonight.

Reed, an adjunct professor at the University of New Orleans, beat Vinny Mendoza, an Air Force retiree handily. Reed won the backing of trade unions and about 70 percent of the vote.  She will continue her campaign in focused on her goal to be the first Democrat to win District 1 in 30 years.  In early May, Reed will face the winner of the Republican run off in a special election.

Gilda gave some brilliant insight on her victory that more Democrats should take to heart:

To the overwhelming pleasure of her supporters and in answer to a question regarding what makes makes Gilda a better candidate than Steve Scalise or Tim Burns, Gilda answered simply, “for one, I’m a Democrat.”

Wow, Democrats running proudly as Democrats and winning? What a profound idea Ms. Reed!!!

Go here to see Gilda Reed being interviewed after her smashing victory in the primary for Louisiana’s first:

http://www.wwltv.com/video/new…

From all of us here at Ryan for Kentucky we want to send a huge Congratulations to Gilda and everyone associated with her campaign!!! We didn’t have a primary here, and we are all happy to know that another great Democrat made it into the election in the fall. We need Ms. Reed and Ms. Ryan in Washington working side by side to change this country and fight for One America!!

Be sure to show Gilda some love and help give her the resources she needs to win in the fall here:

https://www.officialsecureinte…

Now, on to our campaign in Kentucky’s first where we have another great lady who needs our support. Heather Ryan is up against an entrenched Congressman in Ed Whitfield who is part of the corrupt Mitch McConnell machine. He has a million dollars of special interest money to unleash upon us. He has flown under the radar in Washington, and makes little news.

However, Ed Whitfield has no record of achievement for citizens of this district to point to. His only accomplishment was passing a ban on eating horsemeat. While I am sure the horses in Kentucky will acknowledge this achievment, the people of the first district of Kentucky are falling further and further behind. While Ed Whitfield gets richer, wages for our working families are stagnant or worse, and we watch in horror as our economy is now dominated by low-wage service jobs with no benefits.

Yes, while Exxon Eddie reaps the benefits of his Exxon and Chevron stock, those profits are made on the backs of hard-working Kentuckians who face record energy prices on all fronts. Although Kentuckians in the first district are paying the penalties for the corporate greed that has made Whitfield a rich man, Exxon Eddie can’t even buy a house in our district. He must pitch a tent on the empty lot he owns in Madisonville.

This time we have a real choice of a fighting Democrat to replace Exxon Eddie with. We have Heather Ryan, who in a history making year for Democrats can make a little history of her own by being the first ever female Congresswoman from this district.

I recently asked Heather about re-building the Labor movement in our state and the country. She had this to say about it:

Our country has seen an all out assault on Organized Labor in the last several decades. We believe Organized Labor is essential in achieving fair wages and benefits for workers. We believe we need to rebuild our Union movement by passing the Employee Free Choice Act and give workers real choices in forming a union. We believe penalties for breaking labor laws should be tougher, and enforced faster. We also support banning the permanent replacement of striking workers. We should also defend and restore a workers right to overtime. We also need to end the practice of mislabeling workers as an independent contractors to avoid paying benefits and taxes. We should expand minimum wage protections to tipped workers and home healthcare workers. We should give public employees every opportunity to compete with private contractors and evaluate a companies record on tax, labor and environmental standards before awarding them any federal or state contracts. Finally, we should recognize that any work that involves essential government functions should not be privatized.

I couldn’t agree more with those priorities.

Heather also wants to fight to invest in innovation for our state and nation. She had this to say about what we should be doing in that regard:

In the new global economy our economic competitors are investing aggressively in infrastructure, education and engineering. We simply must begin to match them in this pursuit. To do this we must make the tax credit for research and development permanent. We should invest in renewable energy and the fuels and technologies of the future. We should invest in the recruitment and pay of good teachers while strengthening curriculum in High Schools and expanding college opportunity. We should set the goal of having broadband access to all homes, businesses and schools by 2010, even in rural and low-income areas. Finally, we should protect our scientists and researchers from being pressured by political ideology.

Investing in the fuels of the future is essential to this campaign. With a little research, development, and patriotism in something besides war America and Kentucky have an awesome opportunity to lead the world in an exciting new field, growing and refining the fuels of the future. With high Energy prices due to our dependence on foreign oil, and the emergence of a service-type economy in the first district we can kill two birds with one stone.

We can create high-paying union jobs, and end our dependence on the unstable middle-east for our energy needs. We can once again offer Americans a reasonable product for a reasonable price for their energy needs.

The only thing standing in our way is entrenched politicians who profit from the current madness, and care little for the plight of their constituents as long as the money is rolling in. It is time we replaced Exxon Ed Whitfield with a voice of sanity and Progress, and a Democrat who will fight for us in the Congress.

Please join and help us in this endeavor. Go to the site and sign up for email updates. If you live close enough, volunteer:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

More importantly, please help us get the resources we need to get our message of hope and of Exxon Eddie’s abyssmal record for the citizens of Kentucky out to the 62% of registered Democrats in this district. If we do that, we win.

Please help me to my goal of $1500 for Ryan by May 20, I am almost one-third of the way there!!:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

No matter what you do this year, don’t forget all our awesome Democratic candidates running for the House and Senate. These are the Democrats who will change this party for all of us!!

And don’t forget about two great ladies in two first districts!!!  

 

PA 05 – McCracken for Congress – Progress Report – 3/10/2008

It is encouraging to know that the word about our campaign is getting around. This week I was at an event and was approached by a gentleman who told me he was registered Republican. He said he had visited our campaign website and wanted to speak with me about my stance on the issues. He explained that he is thoroughly disgusted with the political process in Washington and specifically is fed up with the partisan politics that cause almost constant gridlock.

He posed the question to me “Mr. McCracken, how can you promise me that you won’t become part of the partisan politics in Washington?” I told him that I could promise him that I would not become part of partisan politics problem and I can offer proof that I know how to work in a bipartisan manner and have success doing so.

During my 10 years on the Clearfield School Board, I had to learn how to work with at least 4 other board members in order to get things done. Frankly, I enjoyed the chance to debate the important issues with the 8 other board members, sharing my positions and listening to the points that the other board members made. I always kept open the possibility of compromise as long as problems could be solved and we were doing what was right for the students, staff, parents and taxpayers.

More recently, I was given a new test of my bipartisan abilities. In November of 2007, I was re-elected as county commissioner finishing first in total votes. However, my fellow Democratic commissioner finished 4th and was not re-elected. I was faced with 2 newly elected Republican commissioners coming into office. Several people asked me, would I help them or would I take on the traditional minority commissioner role and move to the backseat.

My decision was to do all I could do to help the 2 new commissioners come in and learn the job of county commissioner. So many positive things are happening in Clearfield County and I want the Clearfield County Commissioners as a group to be successful and the positive progress for the county to continue. We are into our third month together and we haven’t missed a beat. I’m helping them with any questions they have about the duties of our office and we are working together as a team for Clearfield County with no partisan politics in sight. If I get the opportunity to represent the 5th district in Washington, I will make the same commitment to work in a bipartisan manner to solve the problems facing our country.

After finishing my discussion with the Republican gentleman I feel pretty confident that I may have my first crossover vote for the November election.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

The Centre Daily Times is doing a fantastic job covering the 5th district race. Every Tuesday they will be running the answer to 1 of 8 questions they posed to all 12 candidates. Last Tuesday the question was “What would you do as a congressman to help provide for job-creating economic development in the 5th congressional district? What are the key elements of your manufacturing policy?”

My response was: “I will do as congressman what I’ve had success with as a county commissioner, which is, work in cooperation with elected officials at all levels, community leaders and private business interests to bring economic development to the region. Elected officials and economic development entities must use every available means to bring new business the region and help existing businesses survive and expand. This would include offering incentives from the local, state and federal levels.

On manufacturing policies, I believe we must get back to manufacturing more products here in the United States. Our economy worked best when products were “Made in the USA”. Our existing jobs base is essentially service oriented at one end of the scale and high paid executives at the other leaving nothing in the middle. We need to get back to a strong middle class making a decent living wage with adequate benefits.”

Finally, I’m attaching a picture of Kelly and Amanda wearing their McCracken for Congress sweatshirts that we got today. They look great and people will know who we are and what we’re doing when they see us out in public.

Kelly and Amanda with our campaign sweatshirts.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Say It Isn’t So, Eliot Spitzer!

I'm sure that, by now, everyone has heard the news about New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's ties to a prostitution ring.  I must say, it comes as a major disappointment after Spitzer established himself as the ethical white knight who fought Wall Street corruption during his tenure as the state Attorney General.  During the run-up to the gubernatorial election, Spitzer was heralded as the next FDR.  It is, therefore, amazing to see how quickly his political capitol evaporated, as he clashed with State Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno (R-Rensselaer).  That was disappointing enough; this latest offense is nauseating.  Right when the public is just beginning to build enthusiasm about the political process and the Democratic party, something like this happens, reminding everyone of the Lewinsky scandal of ten years ago, and reinforcing the idea that all politicians are sleazy, self-serving, Huey Long-esque megalomaniacs. 

Meanwhile, if Spitzer steps down, Lt. Gov. David Paterson will become the Governor.  I'm very interested to see what effect he'll have on the state and congressional races in New York if he ascends.  Is his name too tied to Spitzer's, or will his presence provide a breath of fresh air for the party?  I cautiously await . . . 

MN-Sen: Ciresi Drops Out

It looks like Al Franken has a virtual lock on the Democratic Senate nomination in Minnesota.  From The Hill:

Attorney Mike Ciresi announced Monday that he is dropping out of the race for Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R-Minn.) seat, likely clearing the way for comedian Al Franken in the Democratic contest.

“In my judgment, continuing the endorsement race would only lead to an unnecessary floor fight. It is time to step aside,” Ciresi said in a statement.

Franken still faces little-known professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer for the DFL nomination.

The Company You Keep

Match the following statements…

1) George Bush is “the right man at the right time.”

2) “Let’s put the United States first again, and John McCain is the man as president who will help us do that.”

3) “There is not a better Congressman in Washington than Chris Shays.”

4) “I can’t say enough good things about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; she has been my friend since I was first elected to office.”

… to the list of politicians below:

A) Zell Miller

B) Joe Lieberman

C) Harold Ford

D) Debbie Wasserman Schultz

I doubt anyone needs an answer key to know who said what. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a member of the DCCC’s leadership, sure keeps good company.

Unusual congressional districts

today, some trivia.  The richest and poorest, the most (and least) Whites, Black, Latinos, and others,  and the most Democratic and most Republican districts in the USA, and, for each, the Cook PVI

below the fold

The poorest districts are:



rank      dist.   Med.Inc.  Cook PVI  Location

1         NY16    19.3      43         The south Bronx, NY City

2         KY05    21.9      -8         Southeast KY, bordering VA and WV

3         WV03    25.6       0         Southern WV, bordering KY and VA

4         CA31    26.1      30         Los Angeles, near Hollywood

5         AL07    26.7      17         Mostly western AL

6         CA20    26.8       5         Central valley, including Fresno

7         TX15    26.8       3         Central part of southern TX

8         MS02    26.9      10         Western MS, bordering AR and LA

9         LA02    27.5      28         New Orleans

10        LA05    27.5     -10         Eastern part of the north LA

the poorest district in the nation is also one of the most Democratic, and a couple others are very Democratic, but most are not rabidly partisan

—————————————————-

Most people in poverty:



rank      dist.   Percent Cook PVI   Location

1         NY16     42.2      43       The south Bronx, NY City

2         CA20     32.2       5       Central valley, including Fresno

3         NY15     30.5      43       Harlem, NYC

4         TX15     30.5       3       Central part of southern TX

5         CA31     30.1      30       Los Angeles, near Hollywood

6         TX28     29.9      -1       Western part of southern TX

7         NY10     29.0      41       Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brookln, NYC

8         NY12     28.3      34       Mostly Brooklyn NYC

9         KY05     28.1      -8       Southeast KY, bordering VA and WV

10        MS02     27.3      10       Western MS, bordering AR and LA

Lots of overlap with the first list, but not total

—————————————————

The richest districts:



rank      dist.   Med.Inc.  Cook PVI   Location

1         VA11    80.4      -1         Northeast VA, near DC

2         NJ11    79.0      -6         Central northern NJ, NYC suburbs

3         CA14    78.0      18         San Mateo (silicon valley

4         CA15    74.9      14         Just east of CA14, Santa Clara

5         NJ07    74.8      -1         Northern NJ, some NYC suburbs

6         CO06    73.4     -10         South and west of Denver

7         NJ05    72.8      -4         Northernmost NJ, some NYC suburbs

8         GA06    71.7     -18         Central part of northern GA

9         IL10    71.7       4         North of Chicago  

10        IL13    71.7      -5         Far suburbs of Chicago

CA14 and CA15 are rich and Democratic; most are middle of the spectrum

—————————————

Fewest in poverty:



rank      dist.   Percent Cook PVI   Location

1         CO06      2.7     -10      South and west of Denver

2         IL13      2.9      -5      Far suburbs of Chicago

3         NJ07      3.4      -1      Northern NJ, some NYC suburbs

4         WI05      3.4     -12      Milwaukee suburbs

5         MN03      3.5      -1      Suburbs of the Twin Cities

6         NJ11      3.5      -6      Central northern NJ, NYC suburbs

7         MO02      3.6      -9      St Louis suburbs  

8         NJ05      3.6      -4      Northernmost NJ, some NYC suburbs

9         VA11      3.8      -1      Northeast VA, near DC

10        MN02      3.9      -3      Southern suburbs of Twin Cities



——————————————————

Most Whites:  (note that this is White, non-Latino)



rank    district    Percent  Cook PVI Location

1        KY05       97.1      -8      Southeast KY, bordering VA and WV  

2        ME02       96.7       4      Northern ME

3        PA09       96.4     -15      Southern PA

4        ME01       96.3       6      Southern ME, including Portland

5        VTAL       96.2       9      Vermont

6        WI03       96.1       3      Southwestern WI  

7        PA05       96.0     -10      Northern PA

8        OH18       95.9      -6      Southeastern OH

9        WV01       95.8      -6      Northern WV

10       PA10       95.5      -8      Northeastern PA

Hmmmm, not all the most heavily White districts are Republican….

—————————————————————

Fewest Whites



rank    district    Percent  Cook PVI Location

1        NY16         2.9      43      The south Bronx, NY City

2        CA31         9.8      30      Los Angeles, near Hollywood

3        CA35        10.4      33      South Central, Watts, Los Angeles  

4        CA34        11.4      23      Latino areas of Los Angeles

5        NY06        12.8      38      Eastern Queens, NYC

6        CA38        13.6      20      East LA, Pomona  

7        CA32        14.8      17      Eastern suburbs of LA

8        NY10        16.2      41      Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brookln, NYC

9        NY15        16.4      43      Mostly Harlem NY City

10       CA37        16.6      27      Long Beach

But all the districts with very few Whites are heavily Democratic (they are also all in NY or CA)

—————————————————

The districts with the fewest Latinos:



rank    district     Percent    Cook PVI   Location

1          OH18          0.6      -6      Southeastern OH

2          PA04          0.6      -1      Western PA, Pittsburgh suburbs

3          PA12          0.6       5      Southwestern PA

4          PA18          0.6      -2      Pittsburgh suburbs

5          WV03          0.6       0      Southern WV

6          KY05          0.7      -8      Southeast KY

7          ME02          0.7       4      Northern ME

8          WV01          0.7      -6      Northern WV

9          ME01          0.8       6      Southern ME, including Portland

10         MN08          0.8       4      Northeastern MN

11         OH06          0.8       0      Southeastern OH

12         PA05          0.8     -10      Northern PA

13         WV02          0.8      -5      Central WV, including Charleston  

don’t show much pattern, although most are Republican

————————————————-

The districts with the most Latinos



rank    district     Percent    Cook PVI  Location

1         TX16          77.7       9      El Paso

2         TX15          77.6       3      Central part of southern TX  

3         TX28          77.5      -1      Western part of southern TX

4         CA34          77.2      23      Latino areas of Los Angeles

5         IL04          74.5      31      Two separate parts of Chicago  

6         CA38          70.6      20      East LA, Pomona,

7         CA31          70.2      30      Los Angeles, near Hollywood

8         FL21          69.7      -6      Southern FL incl. Hialeah

9         TX27          68.1      -1      Eastern part of southern TX

10        TX20          67.1       8      San Antonio

show clear regional patterns;  California and Illinois vs. Florida and Texas

—————————————————–

Those with few Blacks:



rank    district     Percent    Cook PVI  Location

1         ID01         0.3     -19        Western ID

2         MN07         0.3      -6        Northwestern MN

3         MTAL         0.3     -11        Montana

4         NE03         0.3     -24        Most of the state

5         WI07         0.3       2        Northwestern WI    

6         ME02         0.4       4        Northern ME

7         OR02         0.4     -11        The eastern 2/3 of OR

8         ID02         0.5     -19        Eastern ID

9         ME01         0.5       6        Southern ME, incl. Portland

10        MN08         0.5       4        Northeastern MN

11        OR04         0.5       0        Southeastern OR

12        UT03         0.5     -26        Mostly western UT, plus Provo

13        VTAL         0.5       9        Vermont

14        WI03         0.5       3        Southwestern WI



are mostly Republican

——————————————————

Whereas those with many Blacks



rank    district     Percent   Cook PVI   Location

1       IL01         65.2      35         South side of Chi. some suburbs

2       LA02         63.7      28         New Orleans

3       MS02         63.2      10         Western MS, bordering AR and LA

4       IL02         62.0      35         South side of Chi. some suburbs

5       AL07         61.7      17         Mostly western AL  

6       IL07         61.6      35         Chicago loop

7       MI14         61.1      33         Detroit

8       PA02         60.7      39         Philadelphia and some suburbs

9       MI13         60.5      33         Detroit

10      NY10         60.2      41         Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brookln, NYC

are all Democratic, many among the most Democratic districts.

—————————————————————

Districts with the most veterans:



rank    district    Percent   Cook PVI   Location

1          FL01     21.7        -19      Western panhandle

2          FL05     21.5         -5      Northern gulf coast of FL

3          VA02     20.3         -6      SE VA, both sides of Chesapeake

4          CO05     19.9        -16      Central CO, Colorado Springs

5          FL14     19.8        -10      Southern gulf coast of FL

6          WA06     19.8          4      Eastern WA, Spokane

7          AZ02     19.6         -9      Mostly northwestern AZ

8          FL15     19.4         -4      Middle Atlantic coast of FL

9          FL13     19.2         -4      Sarasota and suburbs

10         AZ08     19.1         -1      Southeastern AZ, Tucson

not surprisingly, pretty Republican.  This might change with how the Bushites are screwing the veterans

————————————————

and the fewest veterans:



rank    district     Percent   Cook PVI   Location

1           CA31       3.7      30        Los Angeles

2           NY16       3.9      43        South Bronx, NYC

3           NY12       4.0      34        Mostly Brooklyn NYC

4           NY11       4.1      40        Brooklyn and Queens, NYC  

5           IL04       4.3      31        Two separate parts of Chicago  

6           NY15       4.6      43        Harlem, NYC  

7           CA34       4.8      23        Latino areas of Los Angeles

8           FL21       4.8      -6        Southern FL incl. Hialeah

9           NY08       5.1      28        West side of Manhattan

10          CA47       5.2       5        Los Angeles



————————————————

And the most Democratic?



1             NY15          43        Harlem, NYC

2             NY16          43        The south Bronx, NYC

3             NY10          41        Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brookln, NYC

4             NY11          40        Central Brooklyn, NYC

5             PA02          39        Philadelphia and some suburbs

6             CA09          38        Oakland and Berkeley

7             NY06          38        Eastern Queens

8             CA08          36        San Francisco

9             CA33          36        Near Los Angeles

10            PA01          36        Philadelphia and some suburbs    

———————————————————-

and most Republican?



1            UT03        -26         Mostly western UT, plus Provo

2            AL06        -25         Central AL, Black areas removed

3            TX11        -25         Western central TX

4            TX13        -25         Northern TX

5            TX19        -25         Lubbock and Abilene

6            NE03        -24         Most of the state

7            GA09        -23         Northwestern AL

8            UT01        -22         Northern UT, Salt Lake City

9            IN05        -20         Central IN

10           KS01        -20         Most of the state

11           TX08        -20         Eastern TX

One final tidbit….. There are only 6 districts with fewer than 1% Blacks and fewer than 1% Latinos:

ME01 ME02 MN08 VTAL WI03 WI07

All are represented by Democrats.

Congressional races round 2: Massachusetts and Michian

Massachusetts has 10 representatives: All Democrats

Filing deadline is June 3, primary is Sept 16

Michigan has 15 representatives: 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 13, primary is Aug 5

earlier entries in this series are here

District: MA-01

Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west.  Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT

Representative John Olver

First elected  1991

2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 35-63

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: MA-02

Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford

Representative Richard Neal (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MA-03

Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI

Representative Jim McGovern (D)

First elected 1996

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, Ron Crews raised $150K to McGovern’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Todd Williams

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MA-04

Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston

Representative Barney Frank (D)

First elected  1980

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)

Bush margin 2004 33-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Chuck Morse

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook

Assessment Safe

District: MA-05

Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence

Representative Niki Tsongas (D)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents No declared opponents

Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: MA-06

Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester.

Representative John Tierney (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised about $50K

Current opponents Rick Barton, who lost in 2006

Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-07

Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston

Representative Edward Markey (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 74-22

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents Chase, in 2004, raised about $62K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-08

Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea

Representative Michael Capuano (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 19-79

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-09

Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton

Representative  Stephen Lynch (D)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Jack Robinson raised $138K to Lynch’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-10

Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis

Representative Bill Delahunt (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 64-29

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jeffrey Beatty raised $100K to Delahunt’s $1 million; in 2004, Michael Jones raised $260K to Delahunt $840K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-01

Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part.  

Representative Bart Stupak (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 52-45

Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents Tom Casperson

Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Fairly safe

District: MI-02

Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan

Representative Pete Hoekstra (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Kimon Kotos ran both times, and did not raise money

Current opponents :

Fred Johnson

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-03

Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids

Representative Vernon Ehlers (R)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-04

Location Central MI

Representative Dave Camp (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-38

2004 margin 64-38

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Mike Huckleberry ran both time, and did not raise much – between $50K and $100K

Current opponents Andrew Concannon

Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-05

Location Flint and suburbs

Representative  Dale Kildee (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, Myrah Kirkwood raised $250K to Kildee’s $600K.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Bill Kelly

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-06

Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan

Representative Frederick Upton (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 61-38

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Kim Clark raised $150K to Upton’s $1 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: MI-07

Location Central part of souther MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek

Representative Tim Walberg (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin  50-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents Sharon Renier got 46% while raising only $55K

Current opponents Mark Schauer

Jim Berryman

Possibly Renier again

Demographics 68th most rural (46%)

Assessment Vulnerable.   Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Republican seat, and most vulnerable one that isn’t open.

District: MI-08

Location Lansing and surrounding area

Representative Mike Rogers (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin 61-37

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Marinowski raised $500 K to Rogers’ almost $2 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Long shot

District: MI-09

Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit

Representative Joe Knollenberg (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Nancy Skinner raised $400K to Knollenberg’s $3 million

Current opponents Gary Peters

and Rhonda Ross

Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable; superribbie (link above) calls this the 23rd most vulnerable Republican seat; Peters looks to be running a strong campaign

District: MI-10

Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron

Representative Candice Miller (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-31

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment long shot

District: MI-11

Location Far western suburbs of Detroit

Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 57-41

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tony Truppiano raised $130K to McCotter’s $900K

Current opponents Spencer ,

Edward Kriewall

Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this as the 56th most vulnerable Republican district

District: MI-12

Location Northern suburbs of Detroit

Representative Sander Levin (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-13

Location Detroit

Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 78-18

Bush margin 2004 19-81

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MI-14

Location Detroit

Representative John Conyers (D)

First elected  1964

2006 margin 85-15

2004 margin 84-16

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MI-15

Location Southern suburbs of Detroit

Representative John Dingell (D)

First elected  1955 (longest serving House member)

2006 margin 88% against minor parties

2004 margin 71-27

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe