Swing State Project

It’s reached the point in Florida and Michigan where neither remaining candidate in the Democratic Party Marathon is even trying to sound reasonable, much less presidential.  Hillary Clinton is arguing the unsupportable position that the original primaries should count, as originally formatted, even though they were held in opposition to party rules and with the understanding by all candidates  that they would not count.

Obabma is arguing an equally unsupportable position that, because the political powers in the two states (and in Florida, this means the Republican-controlled legislature) broke the rules, the people of two of the largest and most critical states should be disenfranchised with regard to the party nominee.

normboyd40 :: Methinks I Smell Raw Politics: Boyd’s eye View

 

I have two thoughts on this issue.  First, a pox on both their houses. Let the contest go as it is going.  Let them get to the convention, refuse to allow the superdelegates to vote, and nominate Al Gore on the second ballot, with John Edwards as his running mate. (Or John Edwards, with Wesley Clark or Bill Richardson)

Second, stop the stupid squabbling. Hillary – get over it! The original primaries may have seemed like a dream come true for you, but that’s because they were a dream.  In the sense of not associated with reality. Get over it!

Obama, knock off the pontificating.  It makes YOU look stupid when you talk to us like WE are stupid.  Of course, you would love to ignore two states that may just vote for your opponent, but don’t stand there, as “candidate for all the people, all the time” and then say the millions of Dems in these two super-sized states can be ignored. Your camp says “There are serious concerns about security and making sure that everyone gets to vote”.  But then you say that the better alternative is to simply guarantee that nobody gets to vote.

So, both of you are exposed for just what you are.  Typical machine politicians ready to do anything at all for a victory. Yes. it is true, I will still vote for one of you, if that’s how it ends up, but only because the alternative is unthinkable. No longer will I be able to cast my vote proudly and happily for someone I see as a great American and a potentially great President.  No, I will be voting to end the Bush years, to avoid the Bush Lite ascendancy, and get us out of Iraq and back into the rule of law and reason.

A plausible solution for Florida and Michigan has been waved in our faces by a Democrat who, quite frankly, isn’t the most progressive or most loyal to Democratic causes, Sen. Bill Nelson. He would like to tweak the system to favor his candidate,  naturally enough, but that can be dealt with. Florida and Michigan have enough big money Democrats to finance this do-over as a mail-in primary.  Don’t tell me the US Mail is less trustworthy than Dieboldt Corporation. We can do this.  We can do it fairly and efficiently, and we can get a nominee. If not, go back to my first scenario and draft either Al or John.

Oh, and Gov. Dean?  May we humbly suggest going back to winner-take-all primaries next cycle?  God, I hate it when the GOP is more competent that we are.

 

Not a bad get for the Kansas Democratic Party:

Former Rep. Jim Slattery has reconsidered his political future and will challenge Sen. Pat Roberts this fall, a state Democrat official said Wednesday.

Slattery will make a public statement next week that he will enter the race, said Mike Gaughan, executive director of the Kansas Democratic Party.

“He intends to make the race. He’s been talking to Kansans disappointed with the way Pat Roberts has been inattentive to Kansans’ needs in Washington,” Gaughan said. “He was somebody that we talked to last year about the importance of running against Pat Roberts.” […]

Slattery, of Topeka, represented the 2nd District of eastern Kansas from 1983-94 and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1994. He had been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate but said in November he wouldn’t challenge Roberts. Asked earlier this month in Kansas about rumors he was interested again, he said: “I’m interested in many things.”

Expect the Kansas GOP to focus heavily on Slattery’s current job title: a Washington lobbyist.

Still, considering how quiet the Democratic recruitment efforts have been here (self-financing candidate Greg Orman dropped out earlier this year), someone with Slattery’s political experience is a pretty decent score here.

cross-posted from Election Inspection

According to the most recent polls taken, Democrats stand to pick up 5 Senate seats (AK, MN, NH, NM, VA). Two more are tossups (CO, MS-B), and only one Democratic-held seat is vulnerable enough to rate Lean Democratic (LA). Check out the polls below the fold; some are recent, some are old!

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	SUSA 8/25-8/27	Figures	37	Sessions	59
AK	Stevens	R2K 12/3-12/6	Begich	47	Stevens	41
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 2/11	Mark Udall	43	Schaffer	44
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Vernon Jones	27	Chambliss	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Dale Cardwell	25	Chambliss	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Rand Knight	23	Chambliss	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Josh Lainer	22	Chambliss	58
ID	Craig	Myers Research 11/13-11/19	LaRocco	34	Risch	48
LA	Landrieu	SUSA 12/06-12/10	Landrieu	46	Kennedy	42
ME	Collins	SUSA 10/26-10/29	Allen	38	Collins	55
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 2/16	Franken	49	Coleman	46
MS	Wicker (replaces Lott)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12/2-12/5	Musgrove	48	Wicker	34
MS	Wicker (replaces Lott)	Research 2000 12/10-12/12	Musgrove	39	Wicker	47
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 11/12-11/14	Kleeb	39	Johanns	47
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 2/13	Shaheen	49	Sununu	41
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 2/27	Lautenberg	46	Joe Pennacchio	38
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 2/27	Lautenberg	46	Murray Sabrin	31
NM	Domenici	NM State U. 1/22-1/31	Tom Udall	58	Heather Wilson	30
NM	Domenici	NM State U. 1/22-1/31	Tom Udall	53	Steve Pearce	31
NC	Dole	PPP 1/21	Kay Hagan	35	Dole	48
NC	Dole	PPP 1/21	Jim Neal	30	Dole	49
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 2/13	Jeff Merkley	30	Smith	48
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 2/13	Steve Novick	35	Smith	48
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 9/24-9/26	Noriega	35	Cornyn	51
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 2/19	Mark Warner	57	Gilmore	37

Election Inspection will be tracking these polls through November and beyond.

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen heard the messages of Swingstate Project crafted by Davidnyc!  I copied this from the DCCC homepage:

Saturday’s big Democratic win of Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat is just more proof that voters are looking for the big change that Democrats will deliver.

In South Florida, we have three strong Democratic challengers fighting for change against some of President Bush’s most reliable rubbberstamps. Republicans Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21), and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24) have rubberstamped President Bush’s failed agenda time and time again. With only underfunded challengers as opponents, they have become entrenched politicians unwilling to respond to the will of the voters.

Those days are over. Democratic challengers Annette Taddeo (FL-18), Raul Martinez (FL-21), and Joe Garcia (FL-24) are running tough campaigns against the South Florida Republicans that will force them to defend their blind support of President Bush. With Bush’s approval numbers mired in the 30’s, that’ll be no easy task.

The DCCC will be right alongside these candidates taking the fight to these loyal Bushies. The DCCC’s sole mission is to elect Democrats to the House and that’s just what we plan to do. We do it by ensuring our challengers have all the resources we need, knocking on doors, making calls and making sure no Republican attack goes unanswered.

While some of our Members may not always be able to actively campaign with every candidate, you can be assured that the DCCC will be there.

In a recent blog post at Swing State Project, there was frustration against Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz’s call that she would not be campaigning for South Florida candidates. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz works tirelessly to help elect more Democrats to Congress. She has made clear that she supports the DCCC involvement in these South Florida races and has made sure that a Member who could completely throw themselves into those races would be assigned to them.

These Florida districts are ready for the big change that Democrats will deliver with a Democratic President and a strong Democratic Majority. Let’s keep the focus on beating Republicans Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21), and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24).

I was very impressed to read that our progressive blogosphere has pierced another layer of recognition with the head of the DCCC actually citing the Swingstate Project posts and criticisms of Wasserman-Shultz!  Van Hollen’s predecessor, Rham Emmanuel at times left me with the sense that he had very little regard for the progressive blogs, especially regarding his efforts in 2006 to replace Progressive Challengers who ran well in 2004 with more conservative challengers who he felt were better fits for the district.  I find this a sign of progress regarding the attention that leaders like the heads of our national party committee at least recognize our concerns.  Congrats David!

Today, the DCCC unveiled the second wave of participants in its Red to Blue program.  The 13 beneficiaries are:

Kay Barnes (MO-06)

Anne Barth (WV-02)

Darcy Burner (WA-08)

Robert Daskas (NV-03)

Steven Driehaus (OH-01)

Jim Himes (CT-04)

Christine Jennings (FL-13)

Larry Kissell (NC-08)

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)

Eric Massa (NY-29)

Gary Peters (MI-09)

Mark Schauer (MI-07)

Dan Seals (IL-10)

There are few surprises here, but the committee’s stamp of approval given to replacement candidate Anne Barth, who is running against incumbent GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in WV-02 seems indicative of the DCCC’s desire to bust open the 2008 playing field in a big way.

It’s not just the netroots who are up in arms about the fact that key South Florida incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meek are refusing to support fellow Dems Annette Taddeo, Joe Garcia and Raul Martinez. Local Democrats are outraged, too:

Two influential congressional Democrats from South Florida are coming under fire from Miami-Dade Democrats for sitting on the sidelines as the party seeks to oust three Republican incumbents.

Miami-Dade party members meeting late Monday to elect a new leader said they were dismayed that Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston and Kendrick Meek of Miami have decided not to publicly support the Democratic challengers.

“I was appalled when I saw certain elected officials think they have the right to anoint who can run,” Bret Berlin said as he was elected chairman of the county party. “That’s not their job, it’s our job.”

His words echoed those of North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns, who also ran for county party chairman. He told the crowd at the meeting that he couldn’t “believe two of our elected Congress members have the nerve to stand up and say they won’t support three local Democratic candidates.”

Fortunately, party leaders in the area are having absolutely no trouble getting behind our three excellent candidates:

County Democrats say they may have their best shot in years to unseat at least one of the three, and after winning the county party’s election, Berlin immediately moved to “pledge support behind the three Democratic candidates.”

The more than 100 party executive committee members who assembled at the American Legion Hall in Miami unanimously agreed.

But rather than upbraid Wasserman Schultz and Meek for their embarrassing attempts to recuse themselves from these vital races, the DCCC has signalled its assent:

The national party has said it’s “very excited” about the races, and Jennifer Crider, communications director at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the party has made similar arrangements when other members of Congress have conflicts.

“It doesn’t change our level of commitment in any way or diminish it,” Crider said. “Members [of Congress] have to do their own politics as well. We completely understand they need to do what’s best for them and their constituents.”

How utterly dismaying. Anyone who has read The Thumpin’ knows how bitterly Rahm Emanuel fought against this insulting practice. Attitudes like Meek’s and Wasserman Schultz’s were one reason the Dems languished in the minority for twelve years – and, if they aren’t curbed now, will be a reason we don’t expand our majority.

What’s more, Meek & DWS sit in totally safe districts. In Debbie Dubya’s home base of FL-20, voters chose Kerry over Bush by 64-36 in the last election. Meanwhile, in Meek’s FL-17, Kerry was favored by an almost hilarious 83-17 margin. So the idea that DWS and Meek could possibly be doing “what’s best for them and their constituents” by kneecapping strong challengers and damaging the Democratic Party’s prospects is totally ludicrous.

As I’ve said before – and as I won’t stop saying – Debbie Wasserman Schultz either has to completely change her tune on this and vocally embrace our challengers, or step down from the DCCC. And for his part, Kendrick Meek should do the same. South Florida Democrats – and the whole party – deserve nothing less.

I’m getting a lecture on recruitment when A, you haven’t done a goddamn thing and B, we’ve got a [Republican] target and you’re out there kissing his ass in the press?

– Rahm Emanuel (The Thumpin’)

I can’t say enough good things about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; she has been my friend since I was first elected to office.

– Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Miami Herald)

You see, in my trade, this is called – what you did – you cracked out of turn. Huh? You see? You crumbed the play.

– Joe Mantegna (House of Games)

Why is a co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program blathering to the press about her inability – nay, refusal – to help fellow Democrats, and how fond she is of a particular Republican? If this truly is such a sensitive issue, Debbie Dubya could at least have kept things quiet and handled matters privately in Chris Van Hollen’s office.

Instead, for no reason at all, she chose to make a big public mess of it. And things like this have serious reprecussions:

However, Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks political campaigns, said the lack of support from top Democrats could make donors leery.

“Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a favorite of leadership, somebody on the move,” Rothenberg said. “When somebody like that doesn’t want to be a major player in taking on a Republican, that’s a signal.”

No shit. Bizarre public confessionals like Debbie Dubya’s can have a devastating impact on promising challengers like our South Florida trio, especially with big donors and establishment players. Is it too much to ask key Democratic leaders not to air their dirty laundry down at Lincoln Road Mall?

Debbie Dubya herself said: “At the end of the day, we need a member who isn’t going to pull any punches, who isn’t going to be hesitant.” We also need someone who is savvy enough to keep his or her mouth shut for the duration of the campaign cycle. It’s bad enough that Wasserman Schultz is kneecapping excellent candidates. Her inability to refrain from “cracking out of turn” is another reason why she should step down from her post – unless she does a 180 on this, and vocally supports Raul Martinez, Joe Garcia and Annette Taddeo, just like proud Democrats everywhere are doing.

This is a post I wish I didn’t have to write. But I think the DCCC is going down a very unwise path here, and I won’t hesitate to call them out on it:

While some of our Members may not always be able to actively campaign with every candidate due to their local commitments and obligations, you can be assured that the DCCC will be there.

In a recent blog post at Swing State Project, there was frustration against Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz’s call that she would not be campaigning for South Florida candidates because of a long-standing tradition in South Florida to not campaign against member of the state delegation. But, we know from Rep Ron Klein’s stellar campaign that sometimes that doesn’t matter. In 2006 Alcee Hastings didn’t campaign, in keeping with the tradition, and Ron Klein’s meteoric rise to victory was unstoppable.

In short, this is not acceptable. There are no recusals in politics. Rahm Emanuel fought tooth-and-nail against this type of dysfunction, where faint-hearted Democrats refused to campaign against Republicans because of “local commitments and obligations.”

If you’re a member of the Democratic caucus, your first “commitment and obligation” is to the caucus, not to personal friendships with Republicans. That means you mentor challengers, raise money, protect vulnerable incumbents, and damn well don’t go jawing to the press about how much you love this or that Republican, or talking down our candidates’ chances.

Honestly, I’m a bit sickened to see the DCCC accept this kind of behavior. Rahm was furious – and rightly so – at Alcee Hastings for sandbagging Ron Klein. But you know which Florida incumbent said “screw it” to this ridiculous “tradition” and did everything she could to help Klein? Yep, that’s right – Debbie Wasserman Schultz. At the time, Debbie said:

“It’s not good for my relationship with Clay Shaw, but Democrats can’t afford to leave a seat like that uncontested.”

So she stuck her neck out and helped drag Klein across the finish line. But just because Klein managed to win in spite of getting kneecapped by a lazy incumbent in a super-safe district (D+29) like Alcee Hastings is hardly a reason to tolerate this sort of bullshit.

And Hastings, let’s face it, is a backbencher – only the sixth federal judge in history ever to be impeached by Congress, whose questionable background precluded him from becoming chair of the Intelligence committee last year despite his seniority. Debbie Wasserman Schultz should want to be held to a higher standard. She’s  a “rising star” in the party and co-chair of the Red to Blue initiative – the very program tasked with increasing our majority on the Hill.

And I can assure you, we aren’t just unhappy at Debbie’s refusal to help Raul Martinez, Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia. We’re pissed that, for no reason at all, she went to the Miami Herald and told the paper:

“I can’t say enough good things about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; she has been my friend since I was first elected to office.”

We’re pissed that she’s now decided to follow some ridiculous, hoary tradition that she had no problem abandoning two years ago. And we’re pissed that she’s fomenting discord and damaging morale among local Dems, too. And all this coming from an important leader at the DCCC. (Though don’t think we’ve forgotten about Kendrick Meek, too.)

We in the netroots have always understood that if you are unwilling to help a fellow Democrat, that means you are helping a Republican. You can’t privilege personal feelings over the good of the party – too much depends on it. Rahm Emanuel understood this, too. I realize that there is still a great deal of ossified dysfunctionality rusted into the joints of Congress. But the DCCC should be fighting against that dysfunction, not accepting it.

Continuing through the alphabet….

Minnesota has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is July 15, primary is Sept. 9

District: MN-01

Location Southern MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD

Representative Tim Walz (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents Walz ousted Gutknecht while raising $500 K less

Current opponents Dick Day, Mark Meyer, Brian Davis

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; Superribbie ranks this the 17th most vulnerable Democratic seat; still, Walz has to be favored.  

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities

Representative John Kline (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 56-40

2004 margin 56-40

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Collen Rowley raised $700K to Kline’s $1.5 million; in 2004, Teresa Daly raised $1.2 million to Kline’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Sarvi

Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment Possible.  Superribbie calls the 69th most vulnerable Republican seat.  I think it might be more vul. than that.  Kline’s winning percentage isn’t rising with time, he did barely better than Bush in 2004.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities

Representative Jim Ramstad (R) possibly retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money

Current opponents :

Terri Bonoff

Ashwin Madia

and former Repub: Jim Hovland

Demographics 26th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Black (3.8%)

Assessment So far as I can tell, Ramstad is retiring, making this a prime pickup opportunity; superribbie ranks this as the 12th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: MN-04

Location St. Paul and suburbs

Representative  Betty McCollum (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents In 2004, Patrice Bataglia raised $200K to McCollum’s $700K; in 2006, Obi Sium raised $75K to McCollum’s $600K

Current opponents John Mayer, possibly others. Mayer seems to have no website, others’ sites are down

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location Minneapolis and suburbs

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-21 (remainder to an independent)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Tammy Lee actually raised more money than the Republican (Alan Fine) and got almost the same number of votes.  Each raised about $200K, Ellison raised about $800K

Current opponents Apparently Barb White, who also might be running in MN-04, or maybe not running at all

Demographics 45th most Democratic, per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border

Representative Michele Bachmann (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-42 (remainder to John Binkowski)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents Bachmann beat out Wetterling for an open seat. Each spent about $3 million – Bachmann a little less, Wetterling a little more

Current opponents :

Bob Olson and

Elwyn Tinklenberg

Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment We have definite possibilities.  superribbie  (link above) ranks this the 45th most vulnerable Republ

District: MN-07

Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada

Representative Collin Peterson (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 70-29

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents In 2004, David Sturrock raised $125K to Peterson’s $500K.  In 2006, Michael Barrett raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment I don’t call a lot of people DINO, but Peterson is a DINO.  Still, he wins, he doesn’t use a lot of money, and he lines up on the D side, and this is a Republican district

District: MN-08

Location Northeastern MN, bordering WI, Lake Superior, and Canada, including Duluth and International Falls

Representative Jim Oberstar (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rod Grams raised $500K to Oberstar’s $1.4 million; the 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment safe

10:43PM: With 346 precincts reporting, Carson has this locked.  The Indianapolis Star and other media outlets are calling this race for Carson.

10:35PM (James): With 327 of 445 precincts reporting, it’s not looking good for El Rod: 53-44 Carson.

9:46PM (David): This site might be updating quickest of all. 51-47 Carson with 232 of 445 precincts reporting. My sheet now shows Elrod would need over 54% of the outstanding vote to pull ahead.

9:33PM (James): 50-47 Carson with 51% in.

8:43PM (David): 51-46 Carson with 27% in. My spreadsheet indicates, that at least as far as the two-party vote goes, Elrod would have to perform 10% better than he is now in the remaining precincts to overtake Carson.

8:23PM: Carson 52%, Elrod 45%, with 26% of precincts reporting.

8:12PM: With 18% of precincts in, Carson is up 51%-46%.

7:46PM ET: With 13% of precincts reporting, Carson now has a 50%-47% lead.

7:37PM ET (J. Hell): With 6% of precincts reporting, Elrod has a 51%-46% lead over Carson.  The commenters over at Blue Indiana caution that GOP-friendly precincts tend to report first.

UPDATE: WISH-TV has results. Also available on the front page at Indy Star.

---

Right now, as SSP readers know, a special election is taking place in Indiana’s 7th Congressional District to replace the late Julia Carson. The Democrat is her grandson, Indianapolis councilman Andrew Carson, and the Republican is state Rep. Jon Elrod.

Polls close ridiculously early here – 6pm Eastern. I personally think this is an affront to working people and should be changed. But we can have a long conversation about voting reform another time. For now, please post your predictions in comments. Then, we’ll turn this over to results once they start streaming in.

I suspect the Indy Star will carry results here. Also, I’m sure that our friends at Blue Indiana will be all over this sucker. Let’s just hope we pull this one off.