Swing State Project

Building upon retirement rumors, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) told a local paper he'll make up his mind about running for re-election within “a few weeks.” I generally believe that a sitting politician who delays announcing their re-election plans is leaning against another term. 

The article also notes that Cochran is enjoying less influence in the Senate under the Democratic majority, having lost his committee chairmanship and other perks. In addition, Cochran told the paper in an interview before last year's election that his plans would be impacted by which party took control of the Senate. And we all know how that turned out.

While Cochran could probably hold his seat as long as he wants it, an open seat would present an opportunity for popular Mississippi Democrats such as former AG Mike Moore or former Governor Ronnie Musgrove.

(h/t to S2G) 

New Jersey political insiders say Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) will announce his retirement as early as this afternoon. With a PVI of D+3, this district should be a top Democratic pick-up opportunity for 2008.

State Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) has been running a strong challenge to Saxton and should be a formidable candidate for the open seat.

UPDATE (David): It's official. 

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Republican Thad Cochran says an announcement is coming regarding his 2008 electoral plans in “a few weeks.” (HT: TPM) But could Cochran be facing health problems? I only ask because of some of the quotes in the aforelinked article (emphasis added by me):

“I certainly hope he does not retire,” said Paul Mize Sr., a longtime Tupelo friend and confidante. Mize said Cochran is healthy, active and enormously helpful to Mississippi’s interests in Congress.

Former Cochran chief staff counseI, Brad Prewitt, an attorney and business consultant in Tupelo, said he hopes Cochran runs, adding, “He is logically, mentally a well-organized man. I think he is weighing all the factors about what to do with the rest of his time.”

Is there any reason to think Cochran isn’t “healthy” or “mentally well-organized”? Is this a case of “methinks thou doth protest too much”? We’ll see. Oh, and this article also contains the dumbest sentence I’ve seen in a while: “Support for a sixth Cochran term is widespread among his Mississippi backers.” Thanks, NE-Miss Daily Journal, support for Cochran is widespread among his backers. Basically, the newspaper dedicated column space to say that Cochran’s supporters support him. Man, oh man…

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Mitch McConnell’s first ads are up, and McConnell is so desperate, he’s running on Democrat Alben Barkley’s record! I’m not joking. As DMKY’s Sonka points out:

And I can’t wait for the Club for Growth to see this ad!!! This is a love letter to pork and federal government spending through earmarks. Calling Senator Forgy!!!

Speaking of Larry Forgy, The Hill has some interesting commentary on his likelihood of entering the 2008 Senate race:

But that could soon change for McConnell, with opponents lining up not only on the Democratic side but from an angry Republican-turned-Independent as well.

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy has made no secret of his anger over what he sees as McConnell’s role in dividing the state party by throwing Fletcher under the bus at the onset of his administration’s scandals and backing former Rep. Anne Northup in the GOP primary last spring. He believes this led to Fletcher’s defeat this week. …

But Forgy is furious, and he told The Hill Thursday he is not ruling out an independent bid to unseat McConnell, though he insists he doesn’t want to be a spoiler.

Forgy, who was the party’s nominee for governor in 1995, said he is “pretty sore” at McConnell and the state party for what he sees as their betrayal of Fletcher.

“The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends,” Forgy said.

A Larry Forgy primary challenge would force McConnell to spend money and weaken him for the general election against the Democrat. A Larry Forgy independent bid in the general election could mean curtains for McConnell! Running as an independent would make the Club for Growth no less likely to financially back Forgy – in fact, it could make them more likely since the CfG would probably like to back non-Republican candidates who share their philosophies, to extend their cred. I wholeheartedly support Forgy’s decision to run as an independent, should it come to fruition.

Roll Call has the scoop: crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young won’t announce his plans until the late spring of next year.

Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) remains quiet on his 2008 re-election plans, confirming Wednesday that any announcement on whether he will seek a 20th term likely will not be made until late next spring. […]

Despite the 76-year-old Congressman’s declaration, strategists in both parties have become increasingly convinced that he will choose to end his Capitol Hill career – potentially jeopardizing another Republican-held House seat. But until he says definitively what he will do, an air of suspended animation hangs over the campaign, with no contenders willing to step forward.

Federal candidates in Florida have until May 2 to register for the state’s Aug. 26 primary.

I bet he heads for the exit and pulls the ripcord.  My advice to state Sen. Charlie Justice, the Democrat most heavily rumored to enter the race if Young retires?  Enter soon and get a head start.  This D+1 seat will be ripe for the picking to a strong campaign.

Peters for Congress is proud to announce that the entire Michigan Democratic delegation will be supporting a December fundraiser for Gary Peters and Mark Schauer. The event comes weeks before the next crucial campaign finance reporting deadline.

The unity of the entire delegation, lead by Senators Levin and Stabenow, sends a strong message. DCCC polling shows that Knollenberg’s job approval is at 33%. When voters are given Gary and Joe’s positions on SCHIP, Gary pulls ahead to a 7 point lead. Clearly MI-09 is a serious opportunity to expand our majority in the House.

I am thrilled to see the men and women of our Democratic Delegation stepping up to support two proven progressives.

• Learn more about the campaign at PetersForCongress.com
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I’ve always assumed that state Rep. Aaron Shock, the 26 year-old Republican frontrunner in the GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Ray LaHood (R), had to be a pretty impressive guy to be deemed so formidable.  But his reputation sure doesn’t square with his foreign policy ideas, which are, well, freaking crazy:

In regard to Taiwan, Schock said the U.S. should put more pressure on China and Russia to go along with tougher economic sanctions against Iran.

“If China continues to be irresponsible about nuclear proliferation in Iran, we should tell them that if they do not care about proliferation – and since they are enablers of it in Iran – that if they don’t change their position, we will sell Pershing nuclear missiles to Taiwan for their defense.”

“Non-proliferation will either be enforced universally or not at all – it is their choice,” Schock continued. “The Chinese will come around, I have no doubt.”

Yep, you heard it from Schock first — let’s provoke the Chinese to invade Taiwan if they don’t rush to support U.S. policy goals in Iran.  Oh, and let’s shred the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in doing so.  Yay!

He also goes on to praise Ronald Reagan for funding the Contras in Nicaragua and the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan.

To read the full speech, including his effusive praise of the courage of George W. Bush, go here (pdf).

Aaron Schock: he’s out of his mind.

(H/T: Arch Pundit)

Rep. Jim Walsh (R) has lost the endorsement of the New York Conservative Party in Monroe and Wayne counties — two of the four counties that make up his district.  Activists in the party are upset over Walsh’s about-face on Iraq (he now favors a withdrawal timeline).  The real wrinkle is this: in 2006, Walsh squeaked by Democrat Dan Maffei by about 3400 votes.  Exactly 11,634 of Walsh’s votes came from the Conservative Party line on the ballot.

If the other county parties and the state party agree, Walsh could lose the Conservative line on the ballot next year.  And if the Conservative Party is serious about it, they could nominate their own candidate who would eat into Walsh’s base.  Of course, that’s a lot of “ifs”.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell: 

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.  “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.”  Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win.  Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit.  We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him. 

Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.

Apparently frustrated with attempts by local activists to Draft Tom Udall into the US Senate race, Democrat Marty Chávez is back on the attack:

“This will not be a sweet primary. It just won’t,” Chavez said during a telephone interview. “The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won’t situate him well for the general election.”

In other words, Chávez claims Udall is too liberal for New Mexico. Nice to see the GOP talking points being broken out so early in the campaign, even before Chávez's potential primary opponent has made a decision about the race.

However, Chávez's attempts to paint Udall as a politician “so far to the left” clash with what he had to say about the congressman in a conversation with local bloggers:

“If you look issue by issue I doubt you’ll find much difference … You will find that we will vote together almost all the time.”

Perhaps it's a good thing Udall is holding off on announcing his intentions; it'll give Chávez the time he needs to decide whether Udall is a “great congressman” with an admirable voting record or an out-of-touch liberal.

(H/T: TPM EC)