Swing State Project

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich recently spent some time hobnobbing in DC, getting the royal treatment from Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer as they attempt to recruit him to take on crusty Republican Sen. Ted Stevens next year.  Begich sat down with local NBC affiliate KTUU for an interview about the race.  While he hasn’t yet committed to the race, I can’t help but get the sense that he’s planning on running.  Here are some relevant excerpts:

Mayor Mark Begich: I think no matter what happens in ’08 both Ted Stevens and Don Young are going to have very competitive races.

Going to Washington D.C. and being asked to sit with seven U.S. senators throughout the day and talk to them about their issues, in recruiting me, but also my issues about Alaska and Anchorage; I think for the first time in a long time some very positive attention was paid to our state. It was very humbling and from my perspective a great opportunity for us as a city.

I think a lot of things are changing. I think people are looking for a new generation of leadership. They’re looking for fresh, new ideas. If you ask people how they feel about the country, only 40 percent feel it’s moving in the right direction. The rest think it’s not. I think a lot of people are looking for a new type of leadership and I haven’t made a decision.

I get asked whether I’ll run every day but as mayor of this city there are many things we’re still working on and focused on for the next several months. […]

The days of going and just slicing up the pie and delivering bacon back are long over. Those days are gone. The senator is in the minority. The changing demographics of the state are making an impact as to who’s going to serve in Washington, D.C.

Setting the track for who is going to be in Congress for the next 20 or 30 years is going to be important. Now, it’s clear that the majority, if you listen to anybody, Democrats are going to be in control of the U.S. Senate.

I think that if I was in the race, that’s what I’d be offering. But right now I think people are examining what I’ve done as mayor and are feeling very positive that I would be a good candidate and a good representative for this state.

I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a guy who has given the race a great deal of thought and is mentally preparing himself for a run.  But when can we expect a decision?  Don’t hold your breath:

News: What’s your timeline on a decision?

Begich: Well, filing deadline is June 1.

Remember, Begich has a history of waiting until the last minute to run for office:

But in an interview with CQPolitics.com last week, Begich suggested that the outside pressure to decide is unlikely to have any effect on his time line for making a decision. “My history tells you the answer,” he said, citing his decision to enter the 2003 mayor’s race just two days before that year’s filing deadline.

So don’t expect a Begich candidacy to blossom until springtime, perhaps.  But the signs are looking good that he’ll run.

We are almost exactly one year away from Election Day 2008. One year from now, will Oregon voters choose a candidate who will stand for Oregon, or with President Bush?

Learn more about Smith’s record at http://www.stopgordo… and link to the video at http://www.stopgordo…

“A year from now, Oregonians will have the opportunity to choose change or more of the same,” DPO Chair Meredith Wood Smith said. “They can choose more of someone who has stood by President Bush’s conservative U.S. Supreme Court, his Iraq War and his Republican agenda. Or, they can choose someone who will stand up for Oregon. I hope everyone who views this video will sign up to help us defeat Gordon Smith and send a progressive U.S. Senator to Washington, DC.”

Watch the video and let others know how you will vote a year from now, and why.

As reported by Joe Hallett in the Columbus Dispatch and noted on Ohio 15th and Plunderbund this morning, State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington) of the 16th Ohio Senate District has changed his mind and will jump into the contest to replace retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Upper Arlington) in the 15th Ohio Congressional District. Stivers is an Iraq War vet and a state senator for five years. In short, he is a relatively high-profile adversary for Franklin County Commissioner and well-funded repeat candidate Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus).

More after the flip.

The fascinating thing about the announcement is that Stivers, a member of the incumbent’s party, is portraying it as a race about change. “I’ve decided to run for Congress because I think we really need change in Washington,” he says, and “the country is ready for change …and I represent that change.” He even goes so far as to portray Kilroy as “almost like” an incumbent in the race: “It will be a very different race than in 2006. The voters know her and they need to get to know me.”

On the face of it, that is a difficult argument. Although the Republicans lost control of the House last year, they still hold the White House and the nation is still reeling from the Bush Administration and its policies. Even more telling, the 15th District has been in Republican hands since 1967, when Chalmer Wylie (R) replaced Robert Seacrest (D). Change, indeed.

Stiver’s Ohio Senate district is almost entirely within the 15th Congressional District. Word is that State Rep. Jim Hughes (R) is the pick to run for Stiver’s Ohio Senate seat.

The 15th Congressional District is in central Ohio in Franklin, Madison, and Union counties. It includes part of Columbus and its northwestern suburbs, including Hilliard, Marysville, as well as rural countryside to the northwest. It is a swing district (Cook PVI R+1) and is thought to be tredning blue. Bush won 50% in 2004. Retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) defeated Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by just over 1,000 votes (50% to 50%) in 2006.

Today, November 5th, 2007, is the launch of The Georgetown Progressive.  The Progressive is a new web-based publication written by students at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.  The Georgetown Progressive will be a publication providing commentary and analysis on national and campus issues alike, and will be available completely free at www.georgetownprogressive.com. 

Recently, the GU College Democrats have launched a campus-wide initiative called the Progressive Coalition.  The project aims to unite independent, progressive groups on campus with the common goal of engaging more students in democratic (and Democratic) activism.  The initiative is run by the College Democrats, but look below the fold to learn about the other organizations involved and what you can do to help…

H*yas for Choice
Georgetown University’s unofficial and unrecognized (hence the asterisk) pro-choice, pro-reproductive rights health group.  H*yas for Choice provides information on birth control and women’s health issues.

Georgetown Solidarity Coalition
Formed in the 1996-1997 school year to help university employees form a union, this worker’s rights group has continued to fight alongside campus workers, including recent support for DPS officers’ efforts to negotiate for better wages and benefits in spring 2007, and the Living Wage Campaign with campus janitors that climaxed in March 2005 with a hunger strike by 26 students, drawing national attention to the reality that many universities exploit low-wage workers.

GU Pride
Provides educational and support services to the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and ally (LGBTQA) communities at Georgetown.  GU Pride also provides education, support and referral services to those exploring their sexual orientation and/or gender identity and other individuals sharing an interest in these issues.

Eco-Action
Eco Action club is dedicated to promoting environmental sustainability on campus. They focus on many issues such as recycling, energy consumption, the utilization of renewable energy sources, and educating students on how to maintain environmentally sound habits.

LEAD
Leaders in Education About Diversity (L.E.A.D.) is a dynamic peer education and leadership program.  L.E.A.D. Activists work to raise awareness of prejudices in order to promote open interaction between people of all backgrounds and build a common understanding among a continually diversifying Georgetown University community.

There are many other campus groups which are getting involved, and we sincerely hope that more groups will join in our effort.

I hope you can all take a few minutes today to explore our site and let us know what you think!  If you like what you see, pass it on to friends and family members.  Hopefully, a few of you may even become regular readers.

The Georgetown Progressive represents a great example of student activism and bottom-up organizing, and it is a story I hope you find worthy of a “Rec.”  Our publication is not a profit-seeking enterprise, and we merely ask for your help to raise awareness and bring readers to our site.  Go check it out!

Wield the Pen,
Alex

A recent round of Survey USA polling commissioned by Roll Call predicts Democrats will do quite well in next year's high-profile US Senate races. From poll-to-poll, the MOE varies from 3.8-4.0% with an approximate sample size of 650 respondents.

Colorado:

Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaeffer (R): 41
Undecided: 11

Maine:

Tom Allen (D): 38
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8

Minnesota (07/30 results in parens):

Mike Ciresi (D): 44 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (48)
Undecided: 12 (11)

Al Franken (D): 45 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

New Hampshire:

Jay Buckey (D): 36
John Sununu (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 16

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53
John Sununu (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 5

New Mexico:

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Diane Denish (D): 47
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 10

Bill Richardson (D): 58
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 4

Don Wiviott (D): 32
Steve Pearce (R): 49
Undecided: 18

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 44
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49
Heather Wilson (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Bill Richardson (D): 59
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 5

Don Wiviott (D): 38
Heather Wilson (R): 47
Undecided: 15

Oregon:

Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 13

Steve Novick (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 16

Virginia (9/17 results in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 52 (56)
George Allen (R): 42 (37)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Mark Warner (D): 57 (60)
Jim Gilmore (R): 35 (32)
Undecided: 8 (8)

Thoughts? Surprises?

Google Alerts are da bomb.  They bring all sorts of interesting sites to my attn.  For example, this video comes via Blogging All Things Brownsville, a blog I didn’t know about that seems to be a great place to keep track of, well, All Things Brownsville…

Follow me below the fold for a couple of other interesting items the Google sent my way.

Just in case you were suffering from the impression that the tantrums coming of late from the Imperial Petulancy were on the level, you can rest easy.

The Junior Senator from Texas doesn’t seem to think that his one and only represented constituent, W, was seriously worried about Congress not getting anything done.  As Vince from Capitol Annex notes, he’s urging his fellow Republicans to bloviate more from the floor.

Oh, yeah, that’ll help move things along in the Senate.  Should ratchet things up to the speed of watching paint dry.

And, a final treat to close out this entry, the Walker Report has some fantastic pics from the doings in Eagle Pass where approx 200 statewide Dems got together.

Democracy For New Mexico has the scoop:

Rep. Tom Udall (NM-03) spoke to New Mexico Democrats yesterday at the Party’s State Central Committee meeting at Smith-Brasher hall at CNM in Albuquerque. Bottom line: Udall will take another two weeks to listen to what the people and his family have to say, and weigh the pros and cons of giving up his secure U.S. House seat in Northern New Mexico before making a decision on entering the 2008 U.S. Senate in New Mexico. […]

Udall entered the hall to a standing ovation, loud chants of “Run, Tom, Run” and a multitude of waving signs urging the same. His speech touched on many of today’s hot button issues including Iraq, supporting our troops by getting them out of harm’s way, protecting civil liberties, holding the telecoms accountable for warrantless surveillance and providing expanded children’s health care. He emphasized that we need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Bush veto of legislation that the U.S. House has been passing  on matters like ending the war and regaining and preserving our Constitutional rights. It certainly sounded to me like he was leaning towards running to take back the seat held for so long by Pete Domenici, and helping to make that 60 vote majority a reality in the Senate.

Check the full account, with pictures and video, here.  There certainly is a deep hunger for a Tom Udall candidacy at the grassroots level, as the groundswell of support at the Central Committee meeting indicates.  Run, Tom, Run!

New Mexico FBIHOP has more.

(H/T: S2G)

How did you use your extra hour today?  I’m going to use mine right here by rounding up various House race flotsam and jetsam from the past several days.

• FL-10: Bring ’em to Justice?  At a recent Young Democrats breakfast in Florida, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced that State Senator Charlie Justice (D), the man whose name is most often mentioned as a potential opponent for crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young, may have “big news” to announce soon. 

  When pressed for comment, Justice told the St. Petersburg Times that: “If [Young] retires, the seat hasn’t been open in 40 years, everyone should take a good look at it.  Am I looking at it? Absolutely.  Does that mean 100 percent that I’m going to run?  No, but it’s pretty darn close.”
  

  The Times keeps hearing rumors that Young will step down and that his wife will run in his place.  With a PVI of D+1, this would be one of the hottest takeover opportunities for Democrats next year.  I don’t have their sources, but by reading the tea leaves, I suspect that Young will have some “big news” of his own to share soon.
  

• AK-AL: Speaking of crumb-bums named Young, the Defenders of Wildlife are up on the airwaves in Alaska, hitting scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young (R) hard.  Let’s hope we can make a Pombo out of Young.

• NC-09: Remember Harry Taylor, the man who shocked a Republican-friendly audience when he told President Bush, face-to-face at a PR event, that “I would hope from time to time that you have the humility and the grace to be ashamed of yourself”?
  

  Well, he’s now running for Congress against Rep. Sue Myrick (R).  I welcome the courage that Taylor will bring to this R+12.2 district.

• IN-07: With Democratic Rep. Julia Carson’s health concerns continuing to affect her House attendance (she’s on medical leave until December 15), it looks like Republicans are trying to tap into their minimal bench in Indianapolis in order to pounce on the opportunity.  In the 11/5 issue of Indiana Daily Insight (subscription required), it is reported that freshman state Rep. Jon Elrod (R) is “seriously considering” a bid against her.  Blue Indiana has more on Elrod, and welcomes the opportunity that his open legislative seat could bring.  Could Elrod scare Carson into a retirement?  Without one, this heavily Democratic seat (with a PVI of D+8.7) won’t be safe.

• WY-AL: If Barbara Cubin is planning on running again, she’ll be facing a crowded primary.  Retired Naval officer Bill Winney, who mounted an underfunded long-shot primary challenge to Cubin in 2006 and walked away from it with 40% of the vote, is running again.  However, Winney wouldn’t be the only challenger on the ballot: Swede Nelson, a motivational speaker and teacher, is also running, and state Rep. Colin Simpson said earlier in the year that he planned on challenging Cubin for the nomination if she ran again. 

  If Cubin decides to run again, her only chance of survival is having the anti-incumbent vote split between several different options.  Her stock has sunk so low, that I would bet that she’d be in danger of losing a head-to-head match up against even an unknown like Winney.  Sadly for us, I strongly suspect that Cubin will hang up her spurs and broomstick.

UPDATE (David):

• MD-04: The netroots fundraiser for Donna Edwards has been a huge success so far. We’ve blasted past our intial goal of 4,000 total donors to Donna (we’re at 4,250, in fact). We’ve also raised around $75,000 so far. We’re hoping to hit an even $100,000, so if you can help make it happen, please do so.
• Illinois: The filing deadline in the Praire State is tomorrow, Nov. 5th. Illinois has the first Congressional primaries in the nation, on Feb. 5th, so it’s no surprise that their filing deadline is so soon. Diarist benawu informs us that IL Dems look to be fielding challengers in all districts except the 15th. We’ll know the final shape of our field tomorrow.

September was an awful month for the GOP: John Warner and Hagel retired, Shaheen and Mark Warner jumped in for Democrats… October started much the same way, as New Mexico’s Pete Domenici announced he would not run for re-election, opening up yet another very vulnerable seat. But Democrats then ran into a bad patch of their own that culminated in the disastrous news that Bob Kerrey would not run in Nebraska. That by itself made a race that was leaning towards Democrats become a likely hold for Republicans. Meanwhile, the shuffle in New Mexico has still not been resolved, with Democrats scrambling to find a strong candidate.

That Nebraska and New Mexico have dominated Senate news in the past month is obvious in these new rankings: New Mexico rose from the 11th to 4th, while Nebraska collapsed from 4th to 13th (Reminder: Races are organized in order of vulnerability, so that the first ranked race is the most likely to turn-over). But there was some other movement: The departure of Tom Davis from the Virginia Senate race solidified the contest’s number one ranking, while Democrats are significantly more upbeat this month about their chances in Kentucky and even in North Carolina. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) should be worried at the Democratic determination to avenge Tom Dashle’s 2004 loss and target him for defeat.

The Senate situation is still very fluid with more retirement and recruitment rumors floating around, so that a lot of things could still change in the coming months. But an increasing number of races are settling down, so that we are starting to get a clearer idea of which states are likely to be hotly contested.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-41 majority.

Full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries. The lean take-over and toss-up seats are listed here.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

A month after Virginia rose to the top of these rankings, it appears to have permanently secured its place as the most vulnerable seat of the 2008 cycle. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot when their Central Committee voted to choose the party’s nominee at a party convention rather than in a primary. As a result, Rep. Tom Davis, who had been preparing to run for Senate for years, decided to stay out of the race. His moderate profile would have made a win in a party convention very difficult considering the more conservative candidacy of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And if the Republicans had one hope to make this race competitive next year, it was that Davis would be able to pick-up votes in his base of Northern Virginia, thus cutting the margins in the bluest region of the state. Polls continue to show Warner has a strong edge against Gilmore, and that cannot be accounted by name recognition as both men are well-known statewide.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

Former Governor Shaheen continues to be the worst nightmare for Senator John Sununu. Polls this past month confirmed that Shaheen was looking strong and was favored against the man who beat her five years ago. Sununu is certainly not out of it though; he mounted a very strong campaign in 2002, defeating the incumbent senator in the primary and the incumbent governor in the general election. Republicans will at least try to defend the seat, and they could definitely narrow the margin. But New Hampshire’s Democratic turn in 2006 was so strong that the GOP is unlikely to easily overcome it. They might choose to focus their attention to reclaiming at least one of the House seats.

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 3)

Colorado is one of the quietest top-tier races, mostly of how early Senator Allard announced his retirement. Both parties settled on a candidate early, and primaries will not be particularly contested. Democrats are running Rep. Udall, and Republicans are running former Rep. Shaffer. In the past month, the second poll of the race was released and showed a tie between the two candidates — though it had a very high undecided rate. And middle-of-the-road voters are precisely those that broke Democratic in 2004 and 2006. Democrats picked up a Senator’s seat, the governorship and two House seats in two cycles, and there is no reason to think that Colorado independents are moving back in the Republican column. Udall is favored to pull away ride this blue trend across the finish line, though the race could certainly remain tight to the end.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 11)

New Mexico has been the big story of October. Pete Domenici announced a surprise retirement at the beginning of the month, setting off much movement among state officials. New Mexico is a swing state in most elections, and politicians from both parties see this as a major opening. On the Republican side, the two major candidates are Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, two of the three House representatives from New Mexico. Wilson is supposed to be more moderate than Pearce, which has enabled her to survive cycle after cycle in her Democratic-leaning district (she won by 800 votes in 2006). Wilson is lining up more institutional support, but polls have shown Pearce is running stronger in the general election. The main factor against Wilson is her involvement in the attorney firing scandal — that could hurt her in the primary, but especially in the general election.

On the Democratic side, the big question is whether Rep. Tom Udall will run after all. He ruled it out very quickly weeks ago, but he has been reconsidering in recent days, likely due to intense lobbying from the DSCC. All indications are that he will indeed jump in. If he does, he will start off slightly favored in the general election against either Wilson or Pearce. He has been elected statewide before (he was a two-term Attorney General), and he is a very popular figure. But he would first have to overcome a primary. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, very much disliked by progressives, is also running. Chavez would stay very competitive in the general election, though he would certainly not start off favored.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Republicans are feeling better about this race after Bobby Jindal’s blowout victory in the governor’s race last month. Granted, Jindal was not facing any significant opposition from Democrats, but his first-round triumph with 54% was nonetheless impressive. Louisiana was trending Republican even before Katrina hit, but Republicans are quite confident that Landrieu has lost much of her base because of hurricane migrations and that newly-turned-Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy will end up the victor.

However, the Republican case should not be overstated. Mitch Landrieu, Senator Landrieu’s brother, overwhelmingly won his re-election race as Lieutenant Governor the same day as Jindal’s victory. Granted, he was not facing much opposition either, but Democrats are not out in the state, and the Landrieu family name still carries some weight in the state.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 5)

Just like in Colorado, the field has been set long ago in Minnesotta, which means that the race has been mostly quiet. Coleman and his challengers Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are all busy raising money — lots of it. Coleman also made news recently by endorsing Giuliani in the presidential primary, not that that will have a major impact on his senatorial race. Some Democrats still worry that Franken will not be very strong in the general election, though much stranger things have happened in American politics and many reports have emphasized how well Franken has been able to transition from comedian to politician. It is strange, however, that the DSCC has not pressured more politically experienced Democrats who could potentially be stronger into running.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 8)

Democrats are confident that Gordon Smith is vulnerable, though they did not convince their top-tier candidates to jump in the race. Ducking it out in the primary are House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, with the former favored by the establishment. Democrats they have to weaken Smith early on, especially considering the large amounts of money the incumbent has been raising. Smith’s main vulnerability is the national anti-GOP environment, and Dems are trying to challenge the image of Smith as a moderate politician. Merkley recently blasted Smith for voting to confirm federal Court of Appeals nominee Leslie Southwick whose nomination was very controversial, especially on the basis of Soultwick’s racial insensitivity.

On Tuesday, voters in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia will head the polls to decide a number of hot gubernatorial and state legislative races.  Which races are you looking at, and what are you looking for next week?  I’m sure that the national party committees will be reading some of these results like tea leaves as we gear up for another bruising round of House and Senate battles in ’08.

Roll Call offers their comprehensive rundown here.  Share your take in the comments.