Swing State Project

The Omaha World-Herald takes stock of the potential Democratic candidates for the Nebraska Senate race — all two of them.  Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and ’06 3rd District nominee Scott Kleeb won’t shut the door on a run just yet:

The party has no candidates at this time and their best contender, Fahey, is less than enthusiastic about running a statewide race. The Omaha mayor said that he was not ruling it out but that he has lots of work to do in Omaha.

Fahey has taken an active and high-profile role in trying to keep the College World Series in Omaha. His work in that arena may make it easier for him to rebuff Democratic efforts to recruit him into the race. […]

Fahey said he will decide over the next 30 days whether to run.

“To call it an inconvenient time is an understatement,” he said.

Kleeb, who lost a congressional bid to U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith in western Nebraska last year, also may be a hard sell. […]

He said that he was disappointed in Kerrey’s decision and that he would wait to see what Fahey decided.

If Fahey stays out of the race, Kleeb said, he would consider running.

“It would have to be sooner than later. These campaigns these days take a long time,” said Kleeb, who has about $70,000 left in his congressional campaign committee.

It’s no doubt a daunting decision to go up against a formidable GOP foe in Mike Johanns.  Frankly, I’m surprised that Fahey is still thinking about it, even hesitantly.  However, if one of these two guys get in the ring, and if Bruning bloodies up Johanns, there’s still an outside chance that this race could become interesting.

(H/T: New Nebraska Network)

TIME Magazine dips its toes into the 2008 Senate race scene in its list of the “top ten Senate races to watch“. (H/T: S2G)  Here’s an excerpt from their Louisiana page, talking up the profile of state Treasurer and recently-converted Republican John N. Kennedy:

Kennedy very nearly beat Republican David Vitter for his Senate seat in 2004; in a year that favored Republicans (Bush won Louisiana with 57 % of the vote) Vitter just barely squeaked in with 51%.

Funny.  That’s not how I remember the 2004 Senate race in Louisiana going down:

David Vitter (R): 51%
Chris John (D): 29%
John Kennedy (D): 15%
MoE: 0.0%

Yeah, Kennedy was really breathing down Vitter’s neck there.

That’s not the only mistake in the piece, of course.  On the Colorado page, TIME calls Rep. Mark Udall (D) “the son of the legendary Colorado Congressman Mo Udall”.  Mo, of course, represented Arizona in the House.

I feel genuinely sorry for anyone still stuck relying on the dead tree media for their horse race coverage.

Now that former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is formally in the race against Jack Abramoff’s golfing pal, Rep. Tom Feeney of Florida, the DCCC has just released some polling numbers that they commissioned from Garin-Hart-Yang back in July — and the results aren’t pretty for Feeney.  The full polling memo can be viewed here (PDF file).

In a straight head-to-head match-up, here’s how Feeney fares (likely voters, no leaners):

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 42%
Suzanne Kosmas (D): 23%
MoE: ±5.0%

Mr. Feeney is well under that magical “50%” mark against an opponent who only has 19% name recognition in the district, according to the poll (vs. 86% for Feeney).  Additionally, the poll finds that Feeney has a net negative job approval (46% fair/poor; 36% excellent/good).

After hearing a brief positive bio for each candidate, Feeney leads Kosmas by a 45%-40% margin.  After informing voters of Feeney’s involvement with convicted felon Jack Abramoff, Kosmas jumps ahead to 45%-37%.  Additionally, 58% “express major doubts after hearing about Feeney’s support for privatizing Social Security”.

And yes — I’m well aware that this kind of a “message testing” poll does not necessarily mean that Feeney is slated to lose the election.  But with the race still in its formative stages, Kosmas has some seriously good material to work with in order to give Feeney a major challenge.  I expect this to be a tight race.

Another note from the poll: while Bush won the district by 10% in 2004, on the generic presidential ballot, the Democratic candidate edges the Republican by a 42%-41% margin.

Update: The Politico picks up the poll, too, and gets a hilariously delusional comment from Feeney’s office:

Responding, Feeney’s chief of staff, Tonnie Wybensinger, said, “Feeney has always had a 24 percent unfavorable rating because 25 percent of the district is liberal – not enough to elect Kosmas. Kosmas’ appeal right now is that no one knows who she is and once people do know, that appeal will diminish.”

Tom Feeney: he’s not only out of his league — he’s out of his mind.  I should take this opportunity to note that only 53% of voters knew of Feeney’s Abramoff connections, according to the poll.  Can’t wait for some more “voter education” here.

Surprise, surprise: Bob Kerrey, last seen burnishing his Cornhusker credentials by hobnobbing with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer and writing op-eds in the Daily News, is taking a pass on the Senate race.

With popular former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) in the race, and Kerrey’s months of indecisiveness clearing the field of other potential challengers, it’s not hard to imagine Democrats putting up only token opposition in Nebraska next year.

Eric Kleefeld over at TPM writes that “an inability to win this seat would essentially end any hopes by Democrats of reaching 60 Senate seats this cycle”.  I’m not convinced that 60 seats was ever really in reach in the first place, even with a hypothetical Kerrey candidacy.  Too many variables would have to break in just the right way in order for Democrats to even come close to such a broad sweep.  Perhaps, with Kerrey’s decision, a sense of normalcy will return to prognosticators who are openly hyping the magical 60 mark as some kind of benchmark for DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer’s success next year.

(And yeah, count me down as another guy who’s more than happy not to have to deal with the Liebermanesque statements of the week that a Bob Kerrey campaign would produce.)

The 14th congressional race had a forum in Kane County on October 23rd. All three candidates were present. Jotham Stein was very impressive. He was the only candidate to answer all the questions and gave real solutions. He pointed out the differences between where he stands on the issues and where other candidates stand on the issues. He was concerned that Foster supports a national ID card. He does not agree with Fosters statements about a National ID card.

Now that a Senate bid appears to be off the table for Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), Roll Call reports that the congressman might throw in the towel completely in an announcement that could come as soon as Thursday:

Published reports Monday night indicated that Davis is rethinking his long-awaited Senate bid, and Congressional sources said Tuesday that a run for re-election also may be off the table for the seven-term Congressman. […]

Now some knowledgeable sources on Capitol Hill are saying that if he’s not moving up then Davis likely will be moving out, regardless of the fact that he would be a strong favorite for an eighth term in 2008.

Davis admitted earlier this year that he considered retiring before the 2006 election. He said he decided to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate in the previous cycle would have enabled Democrats to pick up his Northern Virginia seat.

A Davis retirement would open up a district that’s been trending hard in the Democratic direction over the past decade.  Al Gore lost the 11th district by a 7 point margin in 2000, but Bush squeaked by Kerry by a single point in ’04.  In recent statewide victories for Democrats, the 11th has voted strongly for Warner, Kaine and Webb.

If Davis wants to challenge Sen. Webb in 2012, a retirement would make little sense — especially if he traded in his current job for a plum gig as a DC lobbyist, as some are speculating.  But perhaps Davis just wants to cash in while he still can.

Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shares a new poll with the Swing State Project that tests the candidates on both sides of the aisle in Alaska’s at-large US House race next year.

The poll, conducted over “this last weekend” (10/19-10/21), shows Don Young with some very lackluster numbers in the Republican primary for a guy with three and a half decades of incumbency:

Don Young (R-inc): 61%
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 33%
Undecided: 5%
(n=238)

If Young is losing that much of the Republican base against a low-profile candidate (LeDoux is a state Rep and former Democrat), you know that things aren’t looking so hot for the scandal-plagued incumbent.

Among potential Democratic primary voters, former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz holds an early edge:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 45%
Diane Benson (D): 19%
Jake Metcalfe (D): 14%
(n=328)

The poll also shows that Berkowitz has nearly 80% name recognition in the state, while Benson has 66% and Metcalfe 65%.  If that seems slightly high, remember that Benson was the ’06 nominee while Metcalfe has already begun airing campaign commercials — and that this is a pretty small state with a cheaper-than-average media market.

Is it retirement time for GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin?  In a lengthy article dealing with her personal troubles and recent tragedies (and they are significant), Cubin says that she’ll make a re-election decision and announcement very soon:

Cubin, who turns 61 in November, told the Associated Press recently that she plans to run for re-election. But on Thursday she said only that she will make a decision and announcement in the next few weeks.

“I just need to make the announcement at a time that is right,” she said. “Certainly whatever I decide to do there are people I need to notify first before it is in the media – staff, family, all those kind of things.”

I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine Cubin deciding to give 2008 another go.  That’s going to be bad news for Democrat Gary Trauner, but I suppose you never know what kind of Bill Sali-esque goon might emerge from the bowels of the Wyoming Republican Party, leaving a ray of hope in one of the reddest states in the nation.

CQ Politics:

A Dec. 11 special election will be held to fill the vacant seat in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District. The winner will succeed Republican Jo Ann Davis, who died Oct. 6 of breast cancer while serving her fourth House term.

Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine on Tuesday set the special election date, which is just seven weeks away. The special election will be a one-shot deal, with no primary contests: Democratic and Republican officials in the 1st District will select their parties’ nominees – and the timing of the selection process is likely to turn the special election campaign into an all-out sprint.

Republicans are expected to pick their candidate at a convention on Nov. 17. According to the state GOP, about two-dozen Republicans are seeking the seat or considering doing so.

…

It’s not certain when the local Democrats will hold their nominating convention, nor is it clear who will run on the Democratic side.

CQ also points out that the election to replace Rep. Paul Gillmor is the same day. The primary for that race is Nov. 6th.

Race Tracker: VA-01

Over the weekend, AFSCME and the New House PAC hosted a national candidate training camp in Chicago, with the blessing of the DCCC.  Martin Heinrich, a Democrat gunning for the open seat of Heather Wilson (R-NM), described the event thusly:

They invited the top challengers from around the nation and put us through the paces with two days of intense coaching on management, message, money and mobilization. I’ve been through a lot of political trainings, but this was in a class by itself. It was especially helpful to get to know some of the freshmen Congressmen like Ed Perlmutter who ran and won in Republican leaning districts.

In addition to being a great learning experience the conference also gave me great hope. This year’s challengers are an amazing crop of candidates. They all had impeccable credentials and the fire in the belly to win. By the end of the weekend they all had an impressively polished message as well.

I’m not so much interested in the concerns of some that the DCCC may be playing sides in a few primary battles through its involvement in the camp, but I am interested in seeing just who this coalition of national Democrats believes are worthy enough for the special treatment.  Heinrich, writing on his blog, leaks the attendees:

John Adler (NJ-03), Kay Barnes (MO-06), John Boccieri (OH-16), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Darcy Burner (WA-08), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Joan Fitz-Gerald (CO-02), Bill Foster (IL-14), Larry Grant (ID-01), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Jim Himes (CT-04), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Bill Kennedy (MT-AL), Bob Lord (AZ-03), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Eric Massa (NY-29), Bill McCamley (NM-02), Bill O’Neill (OH-14), Gary Peters (MI-09), Jon Powers (NY-26), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Dan Seals (IL-10), Ron Shepston (CA-42), John Unger (WV-02), Dick Versace (IL-18).

Certainly an interesting list — with a surprise or two, like Ron Shepston, a candidate who quite literally emerged from the DailyKos user rolls and is running in a deeply red (R+10.2) district.