Swing State Project

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi, the eventual 133-vote loser in the highly contentious 2004 gubernatorial election in Washington state, is gearing up for a rematch against Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire.  Rossi will make his bid official on Thursday.

There’s no doubt that Rossi will be a serious foe against Gregoire.  Rossi seemed to benefit from favorable media coverage during the bitter re-count period in 2004, as evidenced by this poll showing that voters felt that he was robbed of the office and that he’d easily have won a hypothetical re-vote in late January, 2005.

Still, Gregoire seems to have had a largely uncontroversial first term, and the trendline of her approvals is respectable.

This will be a hard-fought race by the GOP — possibly their only real offensive opportunity to pick off an incumbent Democratic governor next year.  But I’d be willing to bet that Gregoire has the early, if only slight, edge.

We at Twenty-First Century Democrats won’t give up in Virginia until the last poll closes on November 6!  We already told you about how Virginia Republicans have been pulling out plays from Karl Rove’s book of dirty tricks. But we’ve been fighting back hard. Thanks to a group of dedicated progressives we’ve been on the ground making a difference in these important races.

Twenty-First Century Democrats has had teams of canvassers in several districts across Virginia.  We have knocked on 2,254 doors and talked to hundreds of voters about our candidates and their progressive goals for the state.  In addition, we made a direct contribution to the Virginia Democratic Senate Caucus on behalf of our endorsed candidates: Albert Pollard (VA-28) and Janet Oleszek (VA-37). But we are not finished yet! Election Day in Virginia is coming up on November 6th, and we’re redoubling our efforts to help Turn Virginia from RED to BLUE!

The upcoming State Senate races in Virginia are vitally important. Not only are they winnable, but they present a real opportunity to change the map in Virginia and beyond. These are the last State Senate races before the 2010 census and with a Democratic majority in the State Senate we will have a voice in the redistricting process.  Success in Virginia this year will set the stage for bigger victories in congressional races in the future – even the Presidential race in 2008. It may seem like a long way off, but winning today will help us build a lasting progressive majority tomorrow.

If you live in the Washington DC metropolitan area and would like to join us as we fight for Democrats in Virginia, please contact us at info@21stdems.org.

It’s World Series week, and Congressman Mike McCaul is about to get another chance to improve his batting average when a measure providing uninsured Texas kids the kind of health insurance program he enjoys comes up again for debate.

So far, he’s batting 0-2.

First, he voted against the bi-partisan SCHIP bill that would have extended coverage to nearly 1.4 million Texas children whose parents work hard and earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but too little to afford private insurance.  Then, he remained in lockstep with the Bush-Cheney administration and voted against overriding the President’s veto.

Forty-four Republicans joined the Democratic majority in voting to override last week and guarantee access to affordable health care for the children of parents who are working hard and playing by the rules.  They ignored the misinformation spread by the White House and did the right thing.

But not Mr. McCaul.  So here are some facts to help him do the right thing, too:

• More than 90 percent of those families covered by SCHIP earn less than $41,000 a year and can’t afford the average $12,000 annual premiums to cover their children.
• McCaul and his fellow ideologues claim the SCHIP proposal would cover families earning $83,000 a year.  But they’re wrong — and they know it.  No state, including Texas, can cover higher-income families without approval from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which President Bush controls.
• SCHIP is a fiscally responsible plan that saves local taxpayers money by guaranteeing access to health care at the doctor's office, not the emergency room.
• SCHIP isn’t a step toward the kind of government-run health care McCaul and his cronies enjoy. Under the proposal, states are free to provide health coverage any way they choose — and most of them, including Texas, choose to use private insurers to deliver coverage.
• SCHIP is aimed directly at those who need it. States earn bonuses for enrolling those most in need and lose federal matching funds if they don't cover the poorest children — and it phases out coverage for those few adults who are currently enrolled.

The issue isn’t going away.  More than 80 percent of Americans favor the measure Mr. McCaul has voted against — twice.  The question now is whether he will be independent enough next time to swing for the fences or continue to look to the bench for instructions on what to do.

Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle–and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in ’00 and Bush in ’04 by the slimmest of margins).  Let’s take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:

February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Nat’l Dems “are aggressively working to recruit someone to run” for Rep. Bill Young’s (R) seat, “pegging it as one of their top targets.” A DCCC recruiter “recently met with prospective” Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). […] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: “I’d be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him.”

February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Dems “sounded the opening bell last week,” firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already “is seated squarely in Dems’ sights.” They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young’s alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a “rallying point” for an already packed field of “likely” candidates.  Dems “are courting” state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are “petrified” Young will opt not to run in ’08, which likely would set off a “primary scramble in both parties.”

May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn’t know “how much longer he’ll stay” in Congress.  Young: “Nobody knows because I don’t know.”  But will he retire in ’08?  Young: “Let’s be honest: I’m thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before.” […]

But Young’s uncertainty has left GOPers “worried that he may be serving his last term.”

July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he’s “amassing” a “truckload of money.”  He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is “more than a year away.”  Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, “I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make.”  Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, “the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly” (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).

August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week “talking” with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R).  Justice: “A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it.”  Justice, whose name “is also in the mix” of possible ’09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young “might boost” his name ID if Young “waits awhile to retire.”  Justice: “I don’t get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race.”  If I did it, I would run to win.”

October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.

October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  […] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?

Something is set to break here.

In another blow to Republican Senate hopes, Rep. Tom Davis, considered their party’s best shot at holding the seat of retiring Sen. John Warner in the red column, is set to abort his candidacy in a public announcement this week (possibly as early as Thursday).  Chris Cillizza adds that it is not yet clear whether Davis will retire from the House or not.

That leaves the field clear for GOP stalwart and former Gov. Jim Gilmore to proudly wave the conservative flag in the election against the formidable Democrat Mark Warner.

This could turn into the most boring Senate race of the cycle.  But hey, I won’t complain.

Could the Democratic primary for the right to contest the open seat of Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico get a little more crowded soon?  Heath Haussamen has the goods.

State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, a respected moderate, will announce his intentions on November 4th.  Cervantes could be an interesting candidate with the potential to tap into the sizable Latino vote in the district.  Last week he sounded optimistic about a run:

Cervantes said he is “doing what it takes right now, at this stage, and it would be a great privilege to represent the district. I think the country clearly is looking for change and I’ve worked for seven years in a legislative body doing the same thing in Santa Fe.”

Cervantes would join ’06 nominee Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague in the Democratic primary.

While this R+5.7 district doesn’t sit at the top of the list of Democratic pick-up opportunities this cycle, it’s worth mentioning that the NRCC was trying their best to prevent Pearce from giving Democrats another open seat opportunity here.  An anonymous national GOP official quoted by Haussamen summed up the situation for prospective local Republican candidates in the district:

“Somebody’s going to have to sink or swim in that district,” the official said. “Somebody’s going to have to do that on their own.”

Sounds like another opportunity for Democrats to test the limits of the cash-strapped NRCC.

Race Tracker: NM-02

Greg Goode, a Republican challenger to freshman Democrat Brad Ellsworth, stepped down from his job at Indiana State University today in order to meet voters and explore the district he’s running in:

Goode announced his candidacy for the 8th District Congress on Aug. 1. He has since then gained the support from the 8th District Republican Committee and plans on devoting his time and attention to the campaign and election.

“My goals are to criss-cross the 15 counties that make up the Indiana 8th Congressional District,” Goode said. “I will be doing that for the next one year and one month of my life. This is a big district geographically speaking. It is one the largest districts in Indiana and it is going to take a lot of time. That’s why we announce this early.” (Emphasis added)

That sounds very nice… until you realize that Indiana’s 8th district has 18 counties.

I wonder which three counties Goode plans to ignore?

(H/T to the indispensable Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-08

Pass the popcorn!  It’s time for another divisive Republican primary.  Mere days after jumping into the New Mexico Senate race, Rep. Steve Pearce is already being accused of breaking House ethics rules by his colleague and primary opponent, Heather Wilson:

  Pearce, as part of a campaign-funded “tele town hall,” autodialed an estimated 130,000 GOP members across New Mexico on Thursday evening to chat them up about a vetoed children’s health bill, which he and Wilson disagree on.

  ” …I voted to uphold the veto because this bill has major flaws that are bad for the country, and bad for New Mexico,” Pearce said in his recorded messages leading up to the live, two-hour telephone town hall from his Washington, D.C., home. About 13,000 agreed to stay on the line.

  The Wilson camp, meanwhile, accused Pearce of breaking House ethics rules by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site.

  Wilson deputy finance director Heather Wade in an e-mail to the Journal cited a portion of a House document advising members they cannot advertise their official House Web sites on “materials issued by the campaign.” And Wade maintains the calls were, in effect, campaign materials.

  “In making these phone calls, Mr. Pearce misused taxpayer dollars to run for the Senate…,” Wade said in a written statement.

Nice body blow by Wilson there, who is no paragon of ethics herself.  She certainly isn’t wasting any time getting out in front of the issue.  I look forward to Pearce’s counter-attack, and the ensuing bloodbath.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)

Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.

Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office.

Governor
Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected.

Lieutenant Governor
Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before.

Secretary of State
Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whose campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one.

Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store.

State Auditor
Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated Forrest County Adminstrator Mike Sumrall. This one looks like it has gotten away from us and will stay with the Republicans.

Treasurer
Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs.

Agriculture and Commerce
Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us.

Insurance Commissioner
DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance.

State Senate
A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities.

State House
The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command.

Summary
Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it.

Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

On a complete side note, I am looking forward to Friday when I can get Mac OS X.5 Leopard so I can get bloody spell check build into Safari, so until then, please forgive the spelling typos where they are.