Swing State Project

In September, we asked you to rank the 2008 Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip party control.  Since that time, there have been a number of developments that might shake up your rankings, including:

1. NM-Sen: The retirement of Pete Domenici and the entries of Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, as well as Democrat Martin Chavez, in the race to replace him.
2. VA-Sen: The depression of Rep. Tom Davis, after his party gamed the nomination for unpopular ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore.
3. NH-Sen: The entry of ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
4. NE-Sen: More dithering from Bob Kerrey (who appears to be back in NYC), while ex-Gov. Mike Johanns quit his job in Bush’s cabinet to carry the GOP banner in the race.
5. LA-Sen: Analysts are already beginning to read the tea leaves of last night’s gubernatorial elections in the state.  While Jindal had a blowout victory, Mary Landrieu’s brother was re-elected to his Lt. Governor post with 57% of the vote.  The Hotline’s Quinn McCord reads the numbers and finds the results to be not so bad for Sen. Landrieu.

Not that I take much stock in his wisdom, but the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza released his rankings of the Senate scene on Friday (previous ranking in parens):

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Colorado (3)
4. New Mexico (-)
5. Louisiana (4)
6. Oregon (5)
7. Maine (6)
8. Minnesota (8)
9. Alaska (10)
10. Nebraska (7)

What’s your take?

In response to Garrett’s shameful vote to not override President Bush’s SCHIP veto, NJ-5’s Democratic challenger Dennis Shulman has called on the ideologue to get his priorities straight.

As Shulman points out, “We need to get our fiscal house in order, but our children don’t need to be the ones left behind by Garrett’s last minute scramble to clean up his fiscal mess.”

Even more troubling, but no less surprising, is the fact the Garret seems to not have bothered to even read the SCHIP legislation he so self-righteously condemned. Fortunately, Matthew Fretz did bother to read it and, point-by-point, systematically exposes the unbridgeable gap between Garrett’s words and that pesky little thing called reality.

In other news, Shulman’s campaign continues to gain momentum. Check out this recent article on the blind rabbi in the Jewish Standad. 

RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLa.com | Shreveport Times | Baton Rouge Advocate | WWLTV

2:44PM Sun: DCal looks at the numbers and finds that the Dems have held the state House, too.
12:35AM (final update): TXObserver brings us some key state House results.  Looks like the Republicans picked up a few seats and forced run-offs in other Dem-held districts.  Democrats had a 17-seat edge in the state House going into the election.  We’ll have to wait a few weeks to see what the complete carnage is.
11:59PM: The lack of a Democratic candidate with a strong appeal in Orleans Parish really helped lift Jindal over the 50% mark.  Check this out: while Mitch Landrieu cleaned up with 90% of the vote here, Democrats Boasso and Campbell combined for a pathetic 28% of the parish’s vote, with 382 of 442 precincts reporting.  That’s way behind Republican-turned-Indie John Georges’ total of 38%, and even behind Jindal’s 33%.  Talk about a wipeout.
11:51PM: So here’s why I think that Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) didn’t deserve to win re-election tonight: his website sucks.
11:36PM: TXObserver brings us some state Senate races to watch in the comments.  It looks like Mitch Landrieu will win comfortably–he’s holding his closest challenger to a 56-32 margin with 82% of the vote in.
11:30PM: KTBS has Jindal at 47% with 3,413 precincts reporting, but he’s expected to rack up some big points in his home turf in the NOLA suburbs (he scored 88% of the vote in his re-election bid there last year against two hapless Democrats).  (Update: there seems to be some bad math here, anyway.)
11:23PM: WWLTV’s calling the race for Jindal.
11:14PM: With 3,032 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Jindal is sitting tight with 53%.
11:08PM: Highlights from some of the other statewide races — Mitch Landrieu has 54% of the vote in bid for re-election as Lt. Governor with  2372 precincts reporting.  Democrat James Caldwell and incumbent Attorney General Charles Foti (D) are both slightly edging Republican challenger Royal Alexander.  Looks like a Caldwell-Foti run-off could be in the cards.
10:40PM: 2.641 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:33PM: 2,636 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 56%, Boasso 18%, Georges 14%, Campbell 10% (according to WWLTV).
10:22PM: 1,388 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 52%; Boasso, 18%.  Landrieu holding at 51%.
10:20PM: 1096 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:14PM: From WWLTV New Orleans: “Election analyst Greg Rigamer says things are looking very good for Jindal to get over 50% and win outright.”
10:03PM: 787 of 3,967 precincts reporting: 52% Jindal, 19% Boasso.
9:56PM: 470 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 19%.  Landrieu at 51%.
9:47PM: 298 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 54%, Boasso 18%.  Landrieu at 50%.
9:27PM: 11 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 60%, Boasso & Campbell at 14% each.  Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu at 46% in the absentee ballot count so far.
9:21PM: What a surprise: some New Orleans voters get screwed at the polls.
9:06PM: 1 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 63%, Boasso 15%.

---

It’s election day in Louisiana, as voters go to the polls to choose between Bobby Jindal (R), Walter Boasso (D), Foster Campbell (D), John Georges (I), and a slew of also-rans in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kathleen Blanco.  Polls close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern.  Turnout has been described as “brisk” and “steady” in the reports that I’ve seen.   We’ll update this thread as results come in.

How well will Jindal do tonight?  Will he avoid the run-off?  Who will place second?  I don’t usually like to stick my neck out, but here’s my bet, for what it’s worth: Jinal 55%; no run-off.

Third quarter fundraising numbers came out over a week ago.  Fundraising is a huge indicator to a lot of things when it comes to predicting races and keeping an eye out for possible retirements. 

So lets get down to it.  I’m going to take people who fundraised under 100,000$ and go over their age, and length of their political career. 

Senate:
Mike Enzi raised a total of $7,525.  Enzi is 63 years old, and has spent 27 of the last 32 years in elected office.  He is older, and is looking foward to a long time in the minority. 

Thad Cochran raised a total of $14,124.  Cochran is 70 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in congress.  (4 years in the house, then the last 30 in the senate). 

House:
John Doolittle (R-CA-04) raised $50,000.  Doolittle is 57 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in elected office (CA Senate ’80-90, US House ’90-present)

Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41) raised $67,000.  Lewis is 73 years old and has spent the last 39 years in elected office (CA Senate ’68-78, US House ’78-Present)

Gary Miller (R-CA-42) raised $39,000.  Miller is 59 years old and has spent 16 of the last 18 years in elected office. 

Bill Young (R-FL-10) raised $29,000.  Young is 77 years old, and has spent the last 47 years in elected office (FL Senate ’60-70, US House ’70-present)

Dave Weldon (R-FL-15) raised $29,000.  Weldon is 54 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Mark Souder (R-IN-03) raised $83,000.  Souder is 57 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Steve Buyer (R-IN-04) raised $74,000.  Buyer is 49 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Julia Carson (D-IN-07) raised $9,000.  Carson is
69 years old, and has spent the last 35 years in political office.  She also has health issues. 

Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD-06) raised $1,000.  Bartlett is 81 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Dennis Kucinech (D-OH-10) raised $40.  Kucinech is 61 years old, and has spent 21 of the last 38 years in elected office. 

Virgil Goode (R-VA-05) raised $53,000.  Goode is 61 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in elective office (VA Senate ’73-96, US House ’96-present)

Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) raised $79,000.  Wolf is 68 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in the US House. 

Barbera Cubin (R-WY-AL) raised $11,000.  Cubin is 61 years old, and has spent the last 20 years in elected office.  Cubin is also being pushed towards retirement by state Republicans for her weak electability. 

In case you are wondering, I did omit a number of people who were very close to $100,000, if they had a contested primary, or if they were in a competitive district (Obviously making it harder to raise large sums of money.  If I didn’t, this would have taken me all day). 

People Ommitted:
Bilbray-R-CA-50
Latham-R-IA-04
King-R-IA-05
Sali-R-ID-01
Lipinski-D-IL-03
Gilchrest-R-MD-01
Saxton=R-NJ-03
Udall-D-NM-03
Fossella-R-NY-13
McHugh-R-NY-19
McCaul-R-TX-10

Future Democratic retirements? 
House: 1-2
Senate: 0

Future Republican retirements? 
House: 5-11
Senate: 1-2

(Of course these are off of fundraising only – Obviously I’m not looking into people who are off the radar completely)

Here’s what I guessed.

Democrats-US House: Carson for Sure, Kucinech is a maybe.

Republicans-US Senate: Cochran for sure, Enzi is a maybe. 

Republicans-US House: Lewis, Young, Bartlett, Cubin for sure – Everyone else maybe. 

We thought we’d add a little flavor to our open thread this week by including a caption contest.  Let’s see what you can come up with for this recent photo taken of Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (at left).

Well, that didn’t take long.  Chris Minor, a Blackwater contractor who announced a bid against freshman Dem Joe Donnelly just a few weeks ago, is dropping out of the race:

Blackwater contractor Chris Minor announced early Friday he’s dropping out of the Indiana 2nd District congressional race, citing conflicts with his upcoming duties in Iraq.

Minor, a former Kokomo High School graduate and retired U.S. Army officer, announced in late September he would challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Granger.

Friday, Minor said running for office would be “too great a distraction” from his upcoming deployment as an independent contractor in Iraq.

Minor was a gong show candidate.  He denied any closeness with the Blackwater, choosing to instead classify his affairs with the company as being merely a “pay relationship” (whatever that’s supposed to mean).  That didn’t stop him from defending the company earlier in the month, though:

Minor said he thinks Blackwater will be vindicated by the investigations.

“I think once the investigations are over, we’ll see a bunch of guys who have just been fighting in a very tough, combat environment.”

Guess not, Chris.

There were other facets of Minor’s profile that were less than compelling, including his decision to resign from the Kokomo Police Department after an off-duty altercation, as well as a drunk driving charge.

I guess it’s back to the drawing board for Indiana Republicans.

Race Tracker: IN-02

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:

State	CD	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+4.3	46	54	43	57
FL	21	Diaz-Balart, Lincoln	(R)	R+6.2	43	57	42	58
FL	25	Diaz-Balart, Mario	(R)	R+4.4	44	56	45	55

It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.

Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.

They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:

Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.

“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.

Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.

As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:

“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.

“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.

Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.

Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.

Race Tracker: FL-18 | FL-21 | FL-25

My opponent once more failed to do the right thing today.

He again put his loyalty to the Bush-Cheney administration ahead of his obligation to the families who pay for his own health care with their taxes but can’t afford the same rights for their own children.

Central Texans were looking for more leadership and less followership in Washington, D.C. today, because with more uninsured children than any other state, we had more to lose. We didn’t get that leadership today.

It’s time for a fresh start in a new direction.

From Today's Hotline: 

Conducted 10/8-11 by Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R); surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/17). Party ID Breakdown: 30%D, 34%R, 36%I. Tested: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and ex-Gov. McWherter son/businessman Mike McWherter (D).

General Election Matchup                   Alexander As Sen.
                     All    Dem GOP Ind                       All    Dem GOP Ind
L. Alexander    60% 22% 91% 63%     Approve     68% 46% 87% 69%
M. McWherter   29   65     4     22       Disapprove  19  35   6  19
Undec             11   na     na    na

Fav/Unfav
L. Alexander    60%/19%
M. McWherter     9 / 9