Swing State Project

A few weeks ago, we highlighted a long list of incumbents in marginal districts that voted against State Children’s Health Insurance bill in the House. Today, I want to bring to attention all the Republican lawmakers who listened to their moral conscience and changed their votes to override the President’s veto of the S-CHIP bill that will expand health care to millions of needy children:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI

Oh, that’s right. There WEREN’T ANY. In fact, the only vote changes on the Republican side of the aisle since last time were that Rep. Peter King (NY-03), who voted for the package originally, skipped town and failed to cast a vote against his beloved President today, and Babs Cubin (WY-AL), Wally Herger (CA-02), and Ted Poe (TX-02) actually found the time to show up and vote against children today. Bravo, folks.

So let’s take the opportunity to tally up the following Republican’ts occupying districts with a PVI of R+6 or weaker who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with George Bush today and against children and families who deserve health coverage:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
NJ-03	Jim Saxton	R	D+3.3
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	R	R+0.1
OH-01	Steve Chabot	R	R+0.5
IL-11	Jerry Weller	R	R+1.1
MI-11	Thaddeus McCotter	R	R+1.2
MI-08	Mike Rogers	R	R+1.9
WI-01	Paul Ryan	R	R+2.2
MI-07	Tim Walberg	R	R+2.5
MN-02	John Kline	R	R+2.7
IL-06	Pete Roskam	R	R+2.9
FL-08	Ric Keller	R	R+3.0
NC-08	Robin Hayes	R	R+3.0
FL-24	Tom Feeney	R	R+3.1
NY-26	Tom Reynolds	R	R+3.5
MI-04	Dave Camp	R	R+4.0
CA-26	Dave Dreier	R	R+4.1
FL-07	John Mica	R	R+4.1
FL-15	Dave Weldon	R	R+4.1
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	R	R+4.3
AL-03	Mike Rogers	R	R+4.3
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	R	R+4.3
NJ-05	Scott Garrett	R	R+4.4
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4
IL-16	Don Manzullo	R	R+4.5
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	R	R+4.6
IL-13	Judy Biggert	R	R+4.7
IL-14	Dennis Hastert	R	R+4.8
MO-06	Sam Graves	R	R+4.8
VA-04	Randy Forbes	R	R+4.9
FL-04	Ginny Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1
MN-06	Michele Bachmann	R	R+5.1
NY-29	Randy Kuhl	R	R+5.2
FL-12	Adam Putnam	R	R+5.3
NJ-11	Rodney Frelinghuysen	R	R+5.5
VA-05	Virgil Goode	R	R+5.6
NM-02	Steve Pearce	R	R+5.7
VA-02	Thelma Drake	R	R+5.9
AZ-03	John Shadegg	R	R+5.9
CA-44	Ken Calvert	R	R+6.0
CA-46	Dana Rohrabacher	R	R+6.0

Let these names be known now — they are the fringe minority that’s siding with an unpopular president against a bi-partisan bill championed by conservative Republican Senators like Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch. Shame on all of them–including the long list that this chart misses. Dishonorable mentions go to Democrats Jim Marshall and Gene Taylor, who both occupy steeply Republican districts, but who both need a spine transplant.

According to Roll Call, Dennis Hastert will announce his resignation from the House tomorrow:

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is expected to announce Thursday that he is resigning his seat in Congress effective later this year, eventually setting up a special election to succeed him, knowledgeable GOP sources said late Wednesday.

Rumblings have persisted for months that Hastert, who announced this summer that he would not seek re-election in 2008, was unlikely to complete his current term.

This week Hastert met with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and was making calls to tell people of his decision on Wednesday morning.

The article also adds that, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich has 5 days from Hastert’s last day in office to set a date for the special election, which must take place within 115 days.  Depending on the time line of Hastert’s decision, we could see a special election coinciding with the state’s February 5th primary.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE: The Politico says that Hastert’s announcement is postponed:

Hastert initially planned to make an announcement Thursday, but has since scrapped that decision, according to one GOP aide. The former speaker, who announced his plans to retire over the summer, is still expected to leave the House some time in December, but the date of his departure – as well as his announcement – remains unclear.

Lordy, what a teaser.  Just GO.

Race Tracker: IL-14

Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly, who was earlier considering a bid for the seat of retiring Rep. Dave Hobson (R-OH) has decided to pass on the race:

One of the Democrats recruited to run for the seat of retiring Rep. David Hobson (R-Ohio) told the Politico that he wouldn’t be entering the race and added that he didn’t “see any way” for Democrats to win the seat.

“I hate to concede already, but it’s the truth,” said Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly. “I don’t know of a Democrat out there that can take on [state senator] Steve Austria – unless someone will move into the district.”

Immediately after Hobson’s retirement announcement, GOP state senator Steve Austria announced his candidacy. Kelly called him a very “formidable opponent” and predicted he would be able to raise sizable amount of money for the campaign.  He added that the sprawling district, covering eight counties, makes it challenging and expensive to run a district-wide campaign.

Kelly may think he’s scoring points for candidness, but why he decided to create a “Even Democrats Don’t Think Democrats Can Win” narrative is puzzling.  Why shoot the next candidate who will take on the task of running here in the foot?  We’re all well aware that this red distirct (R+6) is hardly at the top of Democratic pick-up opportunities, but Sheriff Gene “Eeyore” Kelly showed little political sense in planting a “why bother” message before the field is even set, especially since the article goes on to include this nugget:

At the same time, Democrats performed respectably in the district in last year’s congressional elections: Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland won about 58 percent of the vote, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won 50 percent there.

Lame, sir.

Race Tracker: OH-07

The field is beginning to take shape in New Mexico: yesterday, it was reported that NM-02 Rep. Steve Pearce would join Rep. Heather Wilson in what is shaping up to be a contentious Republican primary, and that Democrat Patricia Madrid will not run for the seat.

While a sizable chunk of the New Mexico GOP’s small bench have thrown their hats in the race, their only statewide-elected official, State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has decided against running.

We’re still awaiting a decision from Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), and rumors are circulating that Rep. Tom Udall, who crushed the GOP competition in a hypothetical poll by SUSA, may be reconsidering his decision not to run.  Stay tuned.

On a final note, in her interview with NM blogger Heath Haussamen, Madrid says that she hasn’t ruled out another run for the vacant House seat of Heather Wilson.  Advice to Patsy: let common sense prevail and enjoy your private sector career.

In an interview with Minnesota Public Radio, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, the leading Republican candidate to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), offers his thoughts on the coming Congressional campaign:

“This is absolutely another wonderful opportunity to enter public service at a different level, focusing on issues like globalization and issues that I think that I genuinely care about and I think have learned a lot about some expertise on now and try to carry that to a new level as we do try to educate our kids for a global economy,” he said. “So that’s something in the back of my mind that definitely interests me and the opportunity, and I think I would do a good job.”

This guy needs to re-take “Soundbytes For The Media 101”.

(Hat-tip: MNPublius)

I’m Robin Weirauch. I’m running for Congress in the December 11th special election in Ohio’s 5th District and I need your support!

When I heard that President Bush had vetoed the bill expanding SCHIP, I couldn’t believe it. The State Children’s Health Insurance Program helps millions of American children whose families are struggling.

I recently spoke with a single mother from our district that told me she has worked at least two jobs her whole adult life but has never had health insurance through her work. Her daughter has been covered by the SCHIP program since infancy.  She told me she wouldn’t know what she would do without the program.

Read the rest of the story and see my video message after the jump:

She was glad to have the choice with SCHIP between three plans so that she could, for example, choose a plan that would give vision coverage for her daughter, which she has needed most of her young life.  She was not aware of the President’s veto of the expansion of the program or of the fact that the President’s budget did not provide enough funding to cover all those already in the program. She would be in serious financial trouble if her daughter’s healthcare coverage through SCHIP were not available.

She has to pay for her own insurance coverage and is forced to put off the regular checkups that are recommended until she can afford to pay the deductible.  She delays her vision checkup and replacing her glasses for much longer than recommended as she must save up to be able to afford it. If she also had to pay for her daughter’s coverage, she wouldn’t be able to take care of her own health needs.

People often ask me what difference one Representative can make in Congress? But when a 15-vote margin will decide whether American children in need will receive health care or be struck by the business end of George Bush’s veto pen, it becomes evident that every vote counts.

This is where I need your help.  We all know that the online community can  bring much needed attention to competitive special elections.  Senator Sherrod Brown and Governor Ted Strickland both won this district and I believe that we will win this special– but I need your support! 

While my Republican opponents Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are focused on tearing each other down, I’m focused on the issues that matter to working families. Where would the Republican candidates be on this critical issue? Would they side with the bipartisan coalition fighting for children or with the President who denies them care? Voters deserve to know. They know where I stand– for kids, every time.
Please visit my website to learn more and support our campaign today!

Thank you!

Robin Weirauch

Sounds like Tom Davis has the blues.  Or at least, he’s seeing nothing but blue after his party gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore the upper hand in securing the GOP nomination and Democrat Mark Warner posted a massive $1.1 million fundraising haul in under three weeks:

But Davis said at a breakfast at the National Press Club on Tuesday that both recent developments factor into his decision and suggested that he might instead run for freshman Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-Va.) seat in 2012, or not run for Senate at all.

Davis is also a strong candidate on K Street and could  be drawn to a lobbying job.

“There are other races; this isn’t the only shot,” Davis said. “You’ve got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don’t go to the Senate, so what? I’ve been a committee chairman in the House. I’ve got my portrait hanging on a wall. I’ve been pretty productive legislatively.”

There have been rumblings of late that Davis is having second thoughts about running, but he insists his mind was never made up. […]

“Our calculation has been that, if you can get everything in line, it’s a doable race,” Davis said. “But if I have to spend eight months slogging through a party convention, talking to 15,000 Republicans around the state where they’re going to ask you how conservative you are, that does not set you up very well for a general election.”

Sounds like Tommy D has lost the fire in his belly.  Who could blame him?  Perhaps he’ll wave goodbye to the House, too.

9:19PM: Tsongas declares victory.  Nothing to be too proud of in this D+10.7 district, I’m sorry to say.
9:09PM: I’m hearing that local TV stations are calling it for Tsongas.
9:06PM: BMG says Tsongas is up by 2100 votes with 147 of 196 precincts reporting.
9:02PM: With 96 of 195 precincts reporting, Tsongas is down 46%-51%.

Update: Results can be found here.  So far we’re at 59%-38% Tsongas, with only 6 of 195 precincts reporting.  Plenty of time for that lead to come back down to earth.

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It’s decision day in MA-05, where voters are going to the polls to select a replacement for Democrat Marty Meehan in the House.  We’ll update this thread as developments occur.  Turnout has been described as “light”, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether that benefits Republican Jim Ogonowski or Democrat Niki Tsongas right now, but I’m a bit nervous.  Polls close at 8pm Eastern.

Since we still have time, let’s do a prediction contest.  (No prizes, though, other than honor and glory.)  Post your prediction for how the race will end up in the comments (percentages, please).  Remember that there are a few independent candidates in the fray, as well.

One final note, for now… I sincerely hope that this doesn’t turn out to be a microcosm for the broader campaign:

Jim Ogonowski may be a political newcomer, but the Republican has learned a thing or two during his first run for elective office.

Today, the final day before voters go to the polls in a special election to replace former Rep. Martin Meehan, Ogonowski sprinted up and down the line of cars waiting at a Dunkin’ Donuts drive-thru, seizing upon the captive audience – and open driver-side windows – to pass out campaign literature.

“Every vote counts,” the farmer and former Air Force lieutenant colonel told one driver. “We’re that close.”

Democrat Niki Tsongas, the other headliner in the race, employed a slightly less frenetic pace, visiting several senior centers and holding an ice cream social as she sought to claim for herself the House seat once held by her late husband and 1992 presidential contender, Paul Tsongas.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Yesterday was the deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their fundraising reports for the second quarter of 2007.  As promised, just like we did for the first and second quarters, we’ve amassed a list of noteworthy fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers.  While this list is seriously mega, it is not meant to be comprehensive.  If we’ve missed anything, please post the numbers in the comments.  And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding.  The second column shows cash-on-hand, and the third shows cycle-to-date fundraising.

Scroll buttons ready?  Away we go!

A few quick notes:

• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Richard Goddard (GA-08), Jim Ryun (KS-02), John Stephen (NH-01), Andrew Saul (NY-19), Chris Hackett (PA-10)* (Hackett is a little iffy — his total includes a $100K personal donation, as opposed to a loan.)
  
• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Darcy Burner (WA-08), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Charlie Stuart (FL-08), Nels Ackerson (IN-04), Andrew Duck (MD-06), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Linda Stender (NJ-07), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Steve Black (OH-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10), Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
  
• Republican incumbents who were out-raised by other Republicans: Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01), John Doolittle (CA-04)
  
• Democratic incumbents who were out-raised by other Democrats: Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10)
  
• MO-06 and WA-08: So get this.  Despite being the beneficiary of a high-profile fundraiser hosted by Republican Lord & Savior George W. Bush, Dave Reichert was out-hustled by Democrat Darcy Burner.  Compare Reichert’s haul with the total posted by Sam Graves, a Missouri Republican who received a fundraising visit from Dick Cheney.  Graves raised a very impressive $500K+ for the quarter.  I guess the President’s star power isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be anymore.
  
• WA-08: Oh, and speaking of Dave Reichert, check out his filing.  He posted an unusually large amount of contribution refunds: $47,100.  I wonder what the deal is there.
  
• Bills, bills, bills: Dig a little deeper into the filing of Alaska’s Don Young, whose expenses outweighed his receipts by a $200K margin.  What is he spending that money on?  $177,000 in legal bills to the DC law firm of Akin Gump might explain the incumbent’s diminishing (but still huge) cash-on-hand.  Will Thomas over at TPM has more in this vein.
  
• Anatomy of a Dud, Part II: Are Tim Walz and Zack Space the luckiest Dem freshmen sitting in districts that Bush carried?  Take a look at their hapless opponents, who are all posting extremely anemic fundraising numbers.
  
• VA-05 and IN-04: Where did Tom Perriello and Nels Ackerson come from?  Way to turn some heads — both candidates outraised their opponents in abbreviated fundraising quarters since announcing their House bids.
  
• MD-01: Is Wayne Gilchrest doomed?  It sure seems like Republicans are eager to make an example out of him for his support of Democratic efforts to end the war in Iraq.

The U.S. House Thursday is scheduled to vote on whether to override the President’s controversial veto of the bi-partisan State Children’s Health Insurance Program.  Rep. Mike McCaul should vote to provide more than 1.4 million uninsured Texas children the health care they need.

Unfortunately, McCaul voted against uninsured kids and for insurance industry special interests the first round.  Will he find the moral courage to do the right thing today?  Will he finally make Texas priorities his priorities?

You can help by calling Rep. McCaul’s Capitol Hill office at 202-225-2401 and asking him to vote for nearly 1.5 million eligible children of working parents who deserve the same health insurance taxpayers give him.

Last week, Rep. McCaul was quick to hand out a congressional certificate of recognition to an Austin woman honored as one of 18 child care providers across the country at the first annual National

Child Care Provider Awards.  She deserved it. Now it’s time for McCaul to recognize that uninsured Texas kids deserve his attention, too.

Call McCaul today and tell him to vote to override the Bush-Cheney veto.