NM sen Pearce is in.

the story was announced over at wapo.  i’m in class now, but here’s the article.

http://blog.washingt…

A primary will certainly help even the odds if we have a don’t have a clear candidate, and pearce, despite leading in polls, is more likely to lose due to being further right than the state as a whole.  plus, now his seat’s in play, not REALLY in play, but more than before.

NM-Sen: Reasons to support drafting Tom Udall

 

With the retirement of long-time incumbent Pete Domenici, we are looking at an opportunity we may not see again for a long time. As many who are reading this are likely aware, on the Republican side, Reps. Heather Wilson, the pseudo-moderate representing the first district (which, unfortunately, includes my hometown of Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce, the right-winger who represents the second district (including Las Cruces) will be running against each other in order to gain the Republican nomination for the Senate. Naturally, we need a candidate who can defeat Wilson and Pearce in a general election, but we also want to elect a solid progressive who will stand up for New Mexican citizens, not the corporations.

 

You have all probably already read about the various sites which are already working on drafting Congressman Tom Udall to run for the senate, and many of you are probably asking an important question: why is it so important, not only to support Rep. Udall in a run for senate, but to actively work on drafting him for it?

Tom Udall is a strong progressive who will fight for the people of New Mexico, not the business interests. According to the non-partisan group Project Vote Smart, in 2006, he was given a 100% by NARAL, Planned Parenthood, Citizens for Tax Justice, the National Education Association, the National Association of Elementary School Principals (2005), the National Parent Teacher Association (2004), the League of Conservation Voters, the American Wilderness Coalition, Americans United for the Separation of Church and State, the American Civil Liberties Union, the Alliance for Retired Americans, the AFL-CIO, the SEIU, United Auto Workers, the Children’s Defense Fund, the Arc, the American Public Health Association, Disabled American Veterans, and the American Association of University Women; as well as a 95% from the Public Interest Research Group, the National Organization of Women, and the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights (96%).

In addition to being a solid progressive, Tom Udall is also the strongest Democratic candidate we can muster (except, perhaps for Gov. Richardson, and I think we can all agree we’d like to see Bill as Secretary of State or Vice-President). According to CNN’s Election 2006 and Election 2004 Rep. Udall has won his district by 75% of the vote in 2006 and 70%, compared to Rep. Pearce who only won with 60% of the vote in both 2004 and 2006, and Rep. Wilson only barely broke 50% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. According to a recent Survey USA poll; Udall had an 18 point advantage against both Pearce (55-37) and Wilson (56-38). To put this in perspective, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who is the only major Democrat to declare his candidacy, loses to Pearce by 21 points (35-56) and to Wilson by 4 (44-48). In addition, Tom Udall starts off with state-wide recognition after being New Mexico’s Attorney General during the 1990s. 

In Tom Udall, we have both a solid progressive and a strong candidate to run against either Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce. As such, it is critical we draft Tom Udall for the Senate, not only to strengthen the Democratic majority in congress, but to put a solid progressive and advocate for all New Mexicans. After considering all of this, it should no longer be a question of why we critically need Rep. Udall in the Senate, and anyone who is looking for a strong candidate and a strong progressive voice in the Senate; you should support our movement to draft Tom Udall for Senate.

Larry Kissell holds his own in 3rd Q fundraising, Robin Hayes loses ground

First let me say right from the start that I would love to have seen Larry Kissell bring in $500,000 this quarter.  He brought in a little over $80,000 to put toward 2008 and he brought in almost $30,000 to pay off debt from last cycle’s efforts.  Kissell raised over $110,000 and he did not lose ground, he did not go into debt, he’s well ahead of where he was this quarter last cycle and his poll numbers are kicking ass. 

Third quarter 2005 Larry Kissell hadn’t raised enough to report to the FEC.  If you add the money he’s raised toward 2008 and the money raised on the old account for debt reduction, Larry Kissell has raised $309,018.27 which puts him about $309,018.27 ahead of where he was this time last cycle.  As a matter of fact, it wasn’t until the October quarterly reported in 2006 that Larry had raised over $300,000 and it was still less than where he stands today.

How did Robin Hayes do?  Cycle-to-date Robin Hayes has raised about $250,000 more than he had raised at this point in 2005, however, he has over $20,000 less COH and is hemorrhaging money to try and salvage his poll numbers.  Hayes brought in $352,161 and has raised a total of about $850,716 this cycle.  In 2005 Hayes pulled in $183,279 for the quarter and was at $600,653 cycle-to-date.  In 2005 at the end of the 3rd quarter, Hayes had $547,119 COH and this quarter he has only $521,108 COH.

Where is the money going?

Hayes spent over $116,000 on printing, fundraising consulting, mailing list rentals and direct mail.  Some of those charges were paid toward the end of the quarter, so results from the efforts are pending.  Last quarter Hayes spent about $42,000 on direct mail and he appears to be going in the hole.  If he keeps this up, Kissell will have no trouble catching up with his COH figure.

I don’t know how much of Hayes’ direct mail expenditures went toward fundraising and how much went toward salvaging his name.  He recently voted against affordable healthcare for a large number of children in his district.  He makes it sound sterile by calling it SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance Program), but what he did was vote to deny healthcare to a majority of the children eligible for the program in the 8th district.

Currently, just over 20,000 children are eligible to receive healthcare through SCHIP which is about a 76.33% increase over the number eligible in 2000.  Many of these children are eligible because their parents have lost their jobs as a direct or indirect result of Hayes’ CAFTA vote.  Many people in the 8th District find themselves taking jobs that don’t have benefits just so they can feed and house their families.  They need low cost insurance for their families, especially their children.  Robin Hayes’ hometown of Concord has seen the highest increase in need for the program and Philip Morris hasn’t even closed yet.  The number of eligible children will skyrocket once that happens.

Robin Hayes doesn’t really care about the kids, though.  He’s far more worried about whether the rest of the country thinks folks in Concord have cooties.  He’s spent more time whining about a few inoculation recommendations than he has trying to find a solution for SCHIP funding.

What an ass.

Most of y’all know I’ve been a big Kissell supporter for a long time.  I know how hard this man is running and it is still early.  He teaches school every day, spends time with his wife and daughers as a family and makes his way to every possible event throughout the district.  This is the hardest working candidate I know.

I propose that in honor of the growing number of children eligible for SCHIP in the 8th District (up 76.33%) we each contribute $76.33 to the man who won’t deny these children health insurance.  Please go here and give $76.33 to Larry Kissell.  Snail mail and Paypal can be found here.

Robin Hayes is running scared. He’s running harder than he’s ever run, earlier than he’s ever started running before. Funny thing is, it looks like Hayes is just running in place.

As always, thank you for all you do to help Larry Kissell in his bid for NC’s 8th Congressional District seat.  You’re helping to turn NC blue and we can’t thank you enough.

could a tight win in ma-05 be a good thing?

Tomorrow, as we all know, voters in Massachusetts fifth district will vote en masse (10% if that) in the special election to replace Marty Meehan.  Despite the overwhelmingly liberal lean of the district, many have become worried due to the lackluster campaign of Niki Tsongas.  Despite the strong personal story of Jim Ogonowski, and Tsongas’ poor campaign, I strongly doubt she’ll lose simply because it’s Massachusetts.  I could easily be wrong of course, that’s just my thought. 

  To the point however, should she win by a hair, (by which I’d classify by less than five percent) this might prompt Ogonowski to challenge john Kerry in the senate race.  Hackett almost beat Schmidt, then tried to challenge dewine and I think the same could happen here.  The biggest reason for this is that the Massachusetts republicans have a practically nonexistent bench.  Hackett was forced out for the 06 senate race, but the Ohio dems had an okay bench back then, no where as good as it is now, but not as bad the Massachusetts republicans.  If Ogonowski is drafted to challenge Kerry, the NRSC may be tempted to throw away millions into a race ultimately they can’t win without a massive anti-democratic/anti-incumbent mood.  Millions wasted there is millions that can’t be spent in Alaska, Nebraska ect etc.  a close race won’t look good on paper, but somehow I doubt it’ll be remembered in November.  So tomorrow, let’s hope for a victory, just one small enough for them to get Ogonowski to jump into the senate race.

In Ohio, the “Perfect Storm” just keeps rising

(crossposted to Dkos)

President Kennedy once invoked the old axiom that “a raising tide lifts all boats.”

He might have been thinking about the fortunes of Democrats in the State of Ohio. What an INCREDIBLE change since 2004, when Ohio, thanks in large part to “values voters” who turned out to support an idiotic Hate Amendment to the state Constitution, thereby returning the Shrub to the White House by 218,000 votes.

First came 2006: Sherrod Brown goes to the Senate and Ted Strickland leads a near sweep of statewide offices (notable exception: the state Supremes, now all neo-con.) But we only picked up one US House seat, by Zach Space, in OH-18.The GOP thinks that they can take Zach out. FAT CHANCE! Zach raised $274519.00 with $591905.47 Cash on Hand. It’s a VERY tough District but Zach can get the job done.

So let’s review how things are going heading into the US House elections. It’s pretty amazing. There are FOUR open seats, three by retirement, and one death. That’s out of a total of 18 Districts in the state.

And all of the open seats had been held by Republicans.

And unfortunately for the GOP, in OH-02, Mean Jean Schmidt DIDN’T decide to retire!

Folks,in the last several election cycles, it was not uncommon for Democratic Congressional challengers to raise so little money that they didn’t even have to file ANY reports (let alone quarterly.) Let’s take a gander at today’s FEC filings:(my how things have changed!!!!)

First things first, Robin Weirauch is already up and running for the OH-05 special election following the death of Paul Gillmor. She had her crew have been out working HARD. She has been endorsed by most of the county Democratic Party organizations and with the withdrawal of her only significant primary challenger, is overwhelmingly the presumptive nominee. (Because it’s a special election, the FEC reporting schedule is a little different.)

In OH-01, State House Minority leader Steve Dreihaus is taking on Rep Steve Chabot. Driehaus raised $120612.31 with $251011.77 CoH. Steve is a veteran campaigner who is going to run an excellent campaign.

In OH-07, GOP Rep. Dave Hobson has announced his retirement and the DCCC and ODP are working to recruit a top level candidate for the District.It’s very tough District but as an open seat, everything changes. Stay tuned!

In OH-14, former appellate Judge Bill O’Neill has set fundraising records for a Democrat in the District.His totals for his first quarter of fundraising:$102872.00 with $77976.74 on hand.

In OH-15, where Rep. Deb Pryce has decided not to run again, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Killroy raised $342423.64 this quarter, with $383659.05 CoH. So far, the GOP has gotten nothing but rejections for their attempts to find SOMEBODY to run for this seat, following Pryce’s decision not to run again.

In OH-16, where Ralph Regula FINALLY made his decision to retire public,  Air Force Major and State Senator John Boccieri was able to raise $118857.83 with $224847.24 CoH.

Once again, OHIO is clearly going to be the compelling story of this election cycle.

A Critical Opportunity in Virginia

The intense focus on the presidential primaries and the 2008 elections make it easy to forget that there are places around the country with important races this year. The 2007 Virginia legislative elections are a perfect example of this phenomenon. The State Senate elected this year will vote on the creation of new congressional districts following the next census – affecting state and national politics for the next decade.  If Democrats want to expand the playing field for presidential and congressional elections, it is essential that we do not allow the Republicans to redraw the lines again in 2010.  The entire State Senate is up for election and the Democrats only need to pick up 4 seats to end the Republican majority.

Two of the best opportunities to grab seats in the Virginia Senate are Janet Oleszek (Fairfax) and Albert Pollard (Stafford County, Northern Neck).  Their campaigns are working hard to turn these critical seats blue, and judging by the dirty politics being practiced by their opponents, the Republicans are terrified.  Janet’s opponent, ultra-conservative Ken Cuccinelli, has repeatedly either misrepresented or lied about her record and positions. (Check out GoodbyeKen.com’s blog for a full accounting of his misbehavior.) But recently Cuccinelli sunk to a new low when he sent voters a manila envelope that read: “Notice: Your new Fairfax County income tax payment is due,” with the sender identified in bold letters as the “Fairfax County Income Tax Authority” (which does not exist).  Of course, voters who opened the letter expecting to receive a notice from the government instead found a Cuccinelli campaign flyer attacking Oleszek.

When asked about the deceptive mailer, Cuccinelli tried to say that it was a “gimmick” and part of his “marketing campaign.”  Well, Cuccinelli may think that it’s OK to play games with Virginia voters, but this type of deception is unacceptable – especially when it is used to mislead people like the elderly.

Albert’s opponent in the race for Virginia’s 28th Senate district, Republican Richard Stuart, has been telling Virginians that Albert voted to tax farmers and small businesses.  The truth is Albert introduced a bill in the Virginia House of Delegates to exempt farmers and small businesses from having to pay the estate tax.

It is critical that we do not allow Republicans to steal any more elections with this type of duplicitous behavior. We at 21st Century Democrats are committed to helping candidates like Janet and Albert combat Republican misinformation campaigns. We have launched a ‘Virginia – Red to Blue – Action Plan’ to replace dishonest Republicans with dynamic, forward-thinking Democrats committed to effecting positive change.

(If you are in the Washington, DC metropolitan area you can come knock on doors with us and help these candidates win by talking directly to voters. If interested, please contact us at info@21stdems.org

This election is critical! We simply cannot allow the Republicans to continue to win by distorting Democrats positions and playing on voters fears. Please donate some time or money over the next 22 days and let’s make sure that Virginia voters get the Democrats’ REAL records — not misleading Republican rhetoric.

Today Is the Day

No later than the 15th day after the end of all quarters save the fourth, campaigns must file their fundraising reports with the FEC. For the third quarter, that much-anticipated day is today. As we’ve seen, many campaigns choose to file early, but we should still expect to see a flood of reports, at least from House candidates.

Senate reports are also due today, but thanks to truly insane regulations, these reports are filed in hardcopy and then, at great expense and lousy resolution, scanned in electronically. This doesn’t just cost money, it takes time as well – there’s at least a three-to-four week lag before these reports become available. That means reports from the third quarter next year won’t even be available until after the election! (For more on this insane state of affairs – which is entirely the fault of the Republicans – and what you can do to help, read Adam B here.)

Obviously, this is wildly unacceptable in this modern age. So I have a piece of advice for smart Senate campaigns across the country: post your filings on your websites. Not just a press release with your totals raised and on-hand – I’m talking about the entire PDF, or better yet, an Excel spreadsheet. Not only should these campaigns have nothing to hide, there’s nothing they can hide, because all this information will become public soon anyway.

This also leads me to another point. In the online era, the concept of quarterly filings seems rather antique. While I doubt that hidebound legislators would ever go in for this, I think some form of rolling disclosures would make a lot more sense. On one occasion, I worked in the finance department of a campaign, and we had to track donations daily anyway. Shooting this information over to the FEC on, say, a weekly basis would have meant almost zero additional work, except perhaps hitting “upload.”

The fact is, some form of this is already happening now. ActBlue updates totals in real time, and a growing number of campaigns use it as their exclusive online donation mechanism. Obviously these numbers don’t reflect checks received at live events and the like, but as ever-increasing amounts of money are contributed on the Internet, ActBlue totals are becoming more meaningful.

Like I say, I’m sure most politicians would resist this sort of reform. But with things like ActBlue and Dean bats pushing them, some smart campaigns will embrace this sort of open-ness.

In the meantime, though, I’m looking forward to all the third quarter reports. James will have a mammoth chart of all available numbers as soon as it’s feasible, but for now, you can catch up on all the early reports at these links:

Fundraising Reports | Son of… | Bride of… | Revenge of… | Indiana Jones and…

OH-07: Hobson Calls it Quits

Another one bites the dust.

Republican Rep. Dave Hobson announced his retirement today, just days before his 71st birthday:

Rep. David Hobson announced at 5 p.m. Sunday that he will retire at the end of this term. […]

He made his announcement at a birthday party surrounded by staff, former staff and community leaders.

Hobson’s exit makes him the third Ohio Republican in the House to call it quits (Deborah Pryce and Ralph Regula being the others), and the 12th in the nation.  His district, however, is fairly red — with a PVI of R+6, Bush carried it by a 57-43 margin over Kerry.  It will be a tough district for a Democrat to win, but the surging fortunes of Democrats in the state could spark an interesting race here with the right kind of candidate.

Remember, Democrat Zack Space pulled off a victory in an Ohio district that’s just as red last year.  Granted, his GOP opponent was deeply flawed, but who knows what kind of Club For Growth-style stooge the local GOP might spit out for us here.

Race Tracker: OH-07

(Hat-tip: Buckeye State Blog)

NM-02: What Is a Swing District?

Stuart Rothenberg approvingly quotes this anonymous bit of advice from a Republican consultant to the GOP on S-CHIP (sub. req.):

So what advice would this Republican give his party’s Members of Congress? “If I were in a swing district, I’d vote to override. There’s no way I’d take a bullet on this. But if I were in a good Republican district, I’d vote to sustain the veto.”

Leaving aside the obvious questions of the morality of this stance, does this even make for good advice?  Amy Walter intimates that the answer is no (sub. req.):

But the political environment is actually worse than it was at this point two years ago, making it very dangerous to assume that a GOP-leaning district will perform exactly as it had four years ago. A depressed GOP base, a very motivated Democratic base and independents still sour on Republicans all works against a return to normal. (Emphasis added.)

And today, a New York Times article on how badly the GOP is hemorrhaging over its opposition to health care for children includes this aside:

Worried about increasing departures, the House leadership has been encouraging Representative Steve Pearce of New Mexico to forgo a run for the Senate and avoid opening a second Republican-held House seat in a state where Democrats are gaining strength. A fellow Republican, Representative Heather A. Wilson, is already running for the seat being vacated by Senator Pete V. Domenici.

Pearce’s district, NM-02, is R+5.7. It went for Bush by a wide 58-41 margin in 2004. Pearce won with 60% of the vote in 2004, and, despite the huge Dem year, with the same total in 2006. In other words, this is not ordinarily a district you’d consider competitive.

But the fact that the NRCC is begging Pearce to stay put says otherwise. It gives a lot of credence to Walter’s observation, and makes you wonder about the kind of advice Republicans on the Hill are getting – and listening to. The NRCC seems to understand what time it is, but it sure looks like a lot of GOPers are happy to let themselves get surprised by another potential blue wave.

347 House Races filled and a poll!

Well 5 more districts now have candidates:
FL-05 – R+5,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NY-23 – R+0.2,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

347 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 114 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 114
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 63

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 22 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...