Swing State Project

Reasearch 2000 for the Lexington Herald Leader (PDF), taken Oct. 22-24 (likely voters, no trendlines):

Chandler (D): 41
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 13

Stumbo (D): 37
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 17

Luallen (D): 40
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 15

Horne (D): 34
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)

They say you can’t tell the players without a program. So:

• Ben Chandler currently represents Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. He lost a gubernatorial race to Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2003, but held statewide office for many years prior.
• Crit Luallen is Kentucky’s State Auditor. She is seeking re-election to that post this year. The same poll discussed in this post also shows Luallen with a commanding 55-33 lead in the auditor’s race.
• Greg Stumbo is the outgoing state Attorney General. He is probably best known for bringing charges against Fletcher over the latter’s corrupt state hiring practices. Stumbo ran for the Dem Lt. Gov. nod earlier this year on a ticket with Bruce Lunsford, but the pair lost to Steve Beshear and Daniel Mongiardo.
• Andrew Horne is a Marine who lost a primary last year to John Yarmuth in KY-03. (Yarmuth of course went on to defeat GOP Rep. Anne Northup in one of the bigger upsets of 2006.)

The most interesting thing here is not just that McConnell is held under 50% by all comers, but by the fact that he gets the same score no matter who he goes up against. Horne only has 45% name rec (which actually strikes me as high), and yet he still keeps McConnell at 45%.

This undoubtedly has a lot to do with McConnell’s weak favorability rating – just 47-46, with 25% saying their opinion is “very” unfavorable. This is in line with SUSA’s numbers (49-46). I’ll note that McConnell’s internal polling (apparently provided to the newspaper in this accompanying article) has him at 55-32, but when set against the Herald-Leader and SUSA numbers, this survey is an outlier.

The favorability numbers for McConnell’s potential challengers:

Chandler: 57-31
Luallen: 56-21
Stumbo: 49-38
Horne: 36-9

Chandler has said he won’t run, but he hasn’t issued any Shermanesque statements. Luallen is obviously waiting until after the upcoming elections. Stumbo and Horne are both in exploratory modes. No matter who our nominee ultimately is, Mitch McConnell is looking awfully weak for a Republican party leader sitting in a red state. This could definitely be a pick-up opportunity if we see another wave election.

Let’s do a little exercise in “compare and contrast” between reality and the nonsense that Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are peddling here in their primary race to replace Paul Gillmor in Ohio District 5. Both have filed claim and counter claim that the THEY are really the most reactionary wingnut running. (Boy, now THERE is a dubious distinction!)

There was a brilliant episode of the “West Wing” where an inside the Beltway political consultant convinces the Bartlett staff that they should support a flag burning amendment because some poll showed that a large majority of voters are “in favor” of it.

But Marilee Matlin played another consultant who pointed out that although a majority of voters might say “yes” to such an amendment, they attach VERY little importance to it. (Which happens to be true.)

Basically, the “Bob and Steve Show” is engaging in blatant hucksterism and demagoguery by ONLY focusing on “issues” that gain the support of their most rabid base while absolutely NOT addressing the issues that actually matter to Americans.

The evil, mean-spirited, mudslinging going on between these two, is just pathetic. While they babble on about school prayer, the “defense of marriage,” and flag burning, they have nothing so say about the REAL issues facing our nation.

Let’s take a look at the most recent  Rassmussen Report on what issues are most important to voters and, more importantly who they trust the most on those issues.

Flag burning Bob? School prayer Steve? Sorry. Complete nonstarters. Here are the top issues to American voters ranked by how important they are to the voter.

And, who do Americans trust the most on those issues? More bad news for Bob and Steve.

The garbage that these charlatans are peddling will enable them to eek out a narrow victory for one or the other in a GOP primary, but they are just painting themselves into a corner for the general election.

Ever since Cheney and Rove were able to wrest control of our Nation via first the Supreme Court in 2000 and then 218,000 “values voters” in Ohio in 2004, the reactionary right has come to rely more and more on these provocative but ultimately meaningless “wedge” issues.

And now, they are increasingly on the losing side of both the wedge issues and the real issues. But when it comes to the most important issue facing our country, all of a sudden Latta and Buehrer run out of anything to say. According to an article in today’s Toledo Blade:

“Both GOP candidates prefaced their football analogies by admitting they lack a full understanding of the situation, saying that congressmen ought to rely on recommendations from a military hierarchy that ultimately reports to the Oval Office.”

And then Latta resorts to that most favorite neo-con subterfuge– blame it on the media.

“Mr. Latta said adhering to the wisdom of generals is better than setting military policy based on public opinion polls. A CBS News poll two weeks ago found that 67 percent of Americans disapprove of how Mr. Bush is handling the Iraq war.

Mr. Latta blames the media for the war’s unpopularity. “

Gee guys, you don’t think that it could it be the thousands of American soldiers killed? Could it be that the American people have come to grasp that there was never any WMDs? Could it be the TRILLIONS of their tax dollars going to waste at a time when we face huge natural disasters at home?

So while Latta and Buehrer play their stupid game of trying to see who can scare away the greatest number of GOP primary voters, the rest of us have to deal with the horrors of the real world.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

A poll out today from the Herald-Leader makes it clear:

Kentuckians don’t like Mitch McConnell, and he is VULNERABLE in 2008.

Just as the last two Survey USA polls have shown, Kentuckians are starting to sour on their Senior Senator. Mitch McConnell’s approval rating has fallen to 45%, while his disapproval rating has risen to 46%, the first time that any poll has shown his disapprovals eclipsing approvals.

Additionally, McConnell continues to lose support from moderates in big numbers, as only 33% approve and 61% disapprove.  His numbers among Independents aren’t much better, at 37/53%.

The LHL poll also shows potential Democrats well within firing range of McConnell in next year’s Senate race. Chandler, Stumbo, Horne and Luallen are all within 5 to 11% in a potential matchup against the incumbent McConnell in 2008.

The most impressive numbers among these potential challengers is that of Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. Despite the fact that Horne has low name recognition at the moment, with 55% having no opinion of him, he is still within distance of McConnell, down 45% to 34%. In comparison, the % of those having no opinion of Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen, are only 12, 13 and 23%, respectively. If Horne runs and wins the nomination, his name recognition would skyrocket, closing the gap with McConnell considerably (especially considering that Horne’s approval/disapproval among those who know him is at 36/9%). From Del Ali, the president of the company who conducted the poll:

“Here’s a guy that half the electorate really doesn’t know but yet when you put him against an incumbent whom nearly everyone knows, he’s in the race,” said Ali, the pollster. “It tells me the voters of Kentucky at least are open to someone to represent them differently in the U.S. Senate.”

Additionally, Horne is a harder target for McConnell to smear in a potential matchup than other Democrats. From the LHL:

And McConnell already has a reputation as a fierce campaigner who seizes on opponents’ political weaknesses.

For that reason, a candidate such as Horne could give McConnell the most fits, said (Democratic consultant, Danny) Briscoe.

“Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen all have public records that McConnell will look at as raw meat,” he said.

Horne is also more immune to attacks from McConnell on matters of national security than other potential candidates. Horne is a 27 year Marine vet who served in both Iraq wars. His experience on the ground in the current war, along with his vocal opposition to this unpopular policy in KY, would make him a difficult target of the expected “Defeatocrat, cut-and-runner” line of attack that will be sure to come from McConnell.

…………………..

This election will be a brutal fight. McConnell is well known for being one of the most cutthroat campaigners that you’re ever going find. He is relentless in his attacks, and will stoop to anything to gain an edge.

This is why we need a new face in Kentucky politics to take him on. We need a candidate without baggage in their background that can be exploited.  We need a candidate with character and spine, who will stand toe-to-toe with McConnell and not back down from a fight. We need an outsider, not a career politician who runs for office every year. We need a unifying candidate for all Kentuckians across this state.

We need Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

What’s on your mind?

UPDATE (David): Umm:

The first reporting deadline for the special election to replace deceased Rep. Paul Gilmor (R) was yesterday, and the big story is that ideological extremist State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) has a large Club for Growth-generated cash advantage over the conservative but more pragmatic State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green), whose father preceded Gillmor and who is leading in the GOP primary according to the limited polling data available. On the Democratic side, third-time candidate Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) is far back in fund-raising but has received a recent boost from unions, and she faces no serious primary opposition to deplete her war chest. The primary is set for regular general election day, November 6th.

Details after the flip. And visit Ohio Daily Blog for continuing coverage!

Buehrer reported total fund-raising after refunds of $256,017.00, less than the “more than $260,000” he had told the Toledo Blade to expect. Of that amount, $13,000 is from PACs and 60% of the rest is from individuals whose contributions are earmarked as relating to the Club for Growth, and almost all of them non-residents. Buehrer’s cash-on-hand is $188,217.97. His campaign has been buttressed by large independent TV buys by Club for Growth, attacking Latta as “tax happy” despite a generally anti-tax voting record.

Latta reported  $238,582 in total contributions, 90% of them Ohio residents, with $23,050 from PACs. Latta has spent more than Buehrer, leaving only $86,485.36 as cash-on-hand on his report. However, today’s Toledo Blade reports that Latta’s current cash on hand is actually $150,185, attributable in large part to loaning himself $50,000. Of course, Latta sees a positive message in the out-of-state/in-state contrast (quotes from the Blade story):

“Not only do [local Ohioans] contribute, but they’ve got relatives and friends within the district,” Mr. Latta said. “It’s a big advantage for the folks at home to support you.” …

“What connection do these [Club for Growth] people have to northwest Ohio?” Mr. Latta asked. “Do we want this group to be able to buy an election? I don’t think that’s what voters want.”

Republicans Mike Smitley (R-Van Wert), Mark Hollenbaugh (R-Bowling Green), and Fred Pieper (R-Paulding) did not raise enough money to require filing.

On the Democratic side, Weirauch reported taking in $40,354.89 in contributions, of which $4,750 is from Democratic party committees and $2,200 is from PACs. Over $19,000 is from individual contributions too small to require itemization. She reported $26,845.17 cash-on-hand, but the Blade reports that she received an additional $11,000 from unions after the filing deadline, so at the moment she has $37,845 on hand. “I’m very enthusiastic about our fund-raising and I’m confident we’ll have the resources we need,” Weirauch told the Blade. Wierauch’s primary opponent George Mays, who is self employed in the karaoke and disc jockey business, did not raise enough to require filing.

I’m (pleasantly) surprised by the news about union support for Weirauch, as I had heard that they were leery about supporting Wierauch strongly this time around after seeing her lose two prior attempts at the Congressional seat. If their attitude has changed, it has to be due to the nastiness of the GOP primary fight between Buehrer and Latta (extraordinarily negative for this staid, largely rural district), and perhaps the impressive ground-game effort displayed by the Weirauch camp, both tending to improve her prospects in the general election.

I’m sure that Weirauch would decline to answer the question of which GOP front-runner she’d rather face, but in my mind it would unquestionably be Buehrer, whose ideological extremism and out-of-state support would surely be negatives to moderate and independent voters in the general election (set for December 11th). With his larger war chest and more help from PACs like Club for Growth, Buehrer could conceivably make that come true, although Latta still seems to me the candidate to beat on the GOP side.

Former New Mexico AG and 2006 candidate against GOP Rep. Heather Wilson made it official today — she won’t be seeking another bid:

Madrid notified the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other groups today that she won’t run.

“I think that this is a Democratic year and I would have been the strongest person in the race, but this is just not the year for me,” Madrid said in a telephone interview.

That’s largely due to the fact that her father, who lives in Las Cruces, is not well.

“I’ve spent quite a number of years away from my family, particularly in my last year in office, and they need me and I need them,” she said.

Despite the fear that an open seat race might crowd the Democratic primary, former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich looks to be in a good position, with several potential challengers taking a pass on the race.

Albuquerque Mayor and Senate candidate Martin Chavez (D) speaks out on the state of the campaign so far.  Saying that he thinks that he gets “a bad rap from progressives” for his pro-business proclivities, Chavez takes stock of the two potential opponents that local and national Democrats hope will also enter the primary, Rep. Tom Udall and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish:

Chávez said he isn’t worried. Denish has already raised more than $1 million for a 2010 gubernatorial run, and with Chávez abandoning his gubernatorial bid to instead run for Senate, he said it wouldn’t make sense for her to enter the race. He said he is “not concerned” even if she does enter the race.

He also said he is confident he would defeat Udall in a primary.

“Philosophically, he’s so far to the left,” Chávez said. “I’d rather not have him in the race, but that’s a challenge I’d not shy away from.”

Classy for Chavez to use baseless right-wing talking points in order to put down a respected party player who would likely whip Mayor Marty’s ass in a primary battle.  Chavez might want to take a look at the polls again and see who has more mainstream appeal in the state: him or Udall.  Big hint: Udall would put this race in the bag for Democrats, while a Chavez candidacy would be surrounded by question marks.

Let me be clear: if we’re saddled with Chavez, I’ll sigh heavily and deal with it.  But I think it’s extremely telling that Chavez is already speaking out of school and reading out of the Republican play book in order to prove his strength in a hypothetical primary.  Completely and utterly unnecessary.

You may have seen some of the  YouTube drama surrounding MI-09 and candidate Gary Peters. Peters is currently serving as the Griffin Endowed Chair of American Government at Central Michigan University. As a former State Senator, State Lottery Commissioner, and Lt. Commander in the Navy Reserve he brings a unique perspective to the university.

In fact, the story was on the frontpage of AOL.com today.

Another unique perspective found at CMU belongs to young conservative Dennis Lennox. Lennox has been complaining that Peters should not be able to run for Congress at teach at CMU at the same time.

The root of his complaint poses a very significant question: should you be able to hold a job and run for office? We don’t mind that incumbents, who earn a salary from the taxpayers, campaign for their re-election. Should a candidate have to be independently wealthy to run for office?

First I should point out that Peters’ salary comes from a privately funded endowment. In fact, Robert Griffin (a former Republican Senator and MI Supreme Court Justice) who funds the endowment is supportive of Peters. The first two Griffin Chairs were prominent Republicans.

If we limit ourselves to just those who can afford to take time off work to run, given the ever quickening pace of the campaign trail, we certainly are cutting off our options. How will we get the candidates ready to stand up for us, not special interests, if they have to give up their paycheck to run?

We certainly wouldn’t have candidates ready to stand up and fight to end the war. We know the mega wealthy don’t care about protecting our jobs, since they are the ones that promote outsourcing. We’d be lucky to get candidates that want to provide access to quality, affordable health care.

In Michigan last year we saw Amway CEO Dick Devos spend over $41 million in his run for Governor. But over $35 million was his own money! The pundits are saying MI-09 in 2008 could be the most expensive Congressional race in Michigan’s history. Do we want to limit our choices of our representative to the People’s House to only millionaires?

I don’t. Who hasn’t worked a part time job in order to pay the bills while in school or volunteering your service? Gary Peters is running for Congress to provide representation to those in MI-09 who feel no one has stood up for them.

I can see why conservatives would try and use any means necessary to stop Gary. He is Knollenberg’s first opponent that has ever held office before. He has a long list of endorsements, including the AFL-CIO, MI Building Trades, Triangle Pride PAC, and nearly every MI-09 elected official. He has already raised over $215k.

I’ve created an ActBlue fundraising page called “The People’s House” for those of you who believe that candidates should be allowed to work part time while running for office. Whether they are Professors, Teachers, Doctors, or Farmers…we need to support candidate’s that represent US!

Support Gary Peters at ActBlue! Donate to the People’s House page to let everyone know that Congress is not just for millionaires.

Two well-placed sources, independent of each other, have contacted the Swing State Project to let us know that NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) has reconsidered her earlier decision and will challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Blue NC had picked up earlier rumors that Hagan might be back in from a local Democratic strategist:

Even before Jim Neal outed himself, Kay Hagan was looking at getting back in the U.S. Senate race. Now she’s getting more encouragement – from home and from Washington. Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out.

Now Hagan is reconsidering. She’s being wooed by North Carolina Democrats – and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker’s first task was to eat crow with Hagan. 

Public Policy Polling recently pegged Dole's approval at 44% with 41% disapproval. If our sources are correct, these numbers certainly suggest Hagan would have something to work with.

Well, this one certainly is coming as a surprise.  The NY Daily News reports that veteran Democratic Rep. Mike McNulty of New York will announce his retirement soon:

Several well-placed sources confirm that Rep. Mike McNulty, a veteran Democrat from the 21st DC, is poised to announce he will not seek re-election next year – a move that will likely touch off a heated primary battle. […]

McNulty’s spokeswoman refused to confirm or deny the congressman’s plans, but did say he is scheduled to make an announcement about his future on Monday at the Crowne Plaza in Albany.

Among those mentioned as possible contenders for the seat, which is located in a Democratic district and very unlikely to change hands: Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings, Assemblyman Ron Canestrari and Schenectady Mayor Brian Stratton, whose father, Samuel Stratton, held the seat until he withdrew from the race due to health issues.

If true, McNulty would be only the third Democrat to announce his retirement from the House next year — and the only one so far who is doing so without seeking to move on to a statewide office.

McNulty’s district is pretty safe territory for Democrats, with a PVI of D+8.7.  Kerry won it by 12 points in 2004, and Gore by 17 points in ’00.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Race Tracker: NY-21

UPDATE (David): McNulty made it official on Monday.