Swing State Project

Today I was terminated from my engagement as a freelance blogger at the Cleveland.com blog “Wide Open” as a direct result of intervention of Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Township) of the 14th Ohio Congressional District, in retaliation for my previous blogging about his re-election campaign and my financial support for two of his election opponents.

In August, the Cleveland Plain Dealer hired four Ohio political bloggers to contribute to a daily political group blog called “Wide Open“. In order to assure balance, two bloggers with liberal leanings were chosen, and two with conservative leanings. The other participants are Jill Miller Zimon of Writes Like She Talks, Tom Blumer of BizzyBlog, and Dave of Nixguy.

My participation in the project soon came to the attention of Rep. LaTourette. More after the flip.

I had written extensively about LaTourette’s 2006 re-election contest and I explicitly supported his challenger, law professor Lew Katz (D-Pepper Pike). I also wrote about what I regard as the suspicious connection between large amounts of campaign cash LaTourette received from the Ratner family of Cleveland, of the Forest City real estate empire, and their receiving an enormous contract to develop 44 acres of the Southeast Federal Center in Washington DC. LaTourette was a member of the powerful Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and Chair of the Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management, which oversees the agency that awarded the contract (the General Services Administration). (That writing is here and was picked up here.) My wife and I also contributed a modest amount to the Katz campaign.

I was told by Cleveland Plain Dealer Online Editor Jean DuBail that Rep. LaTourette complained about my involvement in “Wide Open” to Cleveland Plain Dealer Editorial Page Editor Brent Larkin. I was also informed that LaTourette brought the matter of my participation up during an interview with Cleveland Plain Dealer political reporter Sabrina Eaton, when she talked to LaTourette about the retirement of Rep. Dave Hobson (R-Springfield). LaTourette mentioned that I had contributed the sum of $100 to the campaign of LaTourette’s current opponent, Bill O’Neill (D-South Russell). Eaton suggested that he raise his concerns with more senior people at the Cleveland Plain Dealer. As a result of the conversation, Eaton reported my contribution in her story about third quarter campaign fund-raising by various Ohio Congressional candidates.

Cleveland Plain Dealer Online Editor Jean DuBail raised the matter of LaTourette’s displeasure with my participation in “Wide Open” in discussion with the four bloggeres on at least two occasions. We discussed the possibility of my making a disclosure of my support for LaTourette’s opponents whenever I wrote anything about LaTourette.

Today Dubail called me and asked if I would agree to never write about LaTourette on “Wide Open,” as a condition of my continued participation. He said that the arrangement was sought by Susan Goldberg, Editor of the Plain Dealer. When I declined to agree that I would never write about LaTourette on “Wide Open,” I was terminated by DuBail.

As a political blogger, I am a partisan. My political orientation as a progressive Democrat is an integral part of what I do and is completely transparent to my readers. This is a crucial component of being a political blogger/activist, and sets us apart from journalists in the classic sense. It was understood among the four participants in “Wide Open” that we are political partisans and that we would engage in political debate from our respective political points of view.

I am extremely disappointed that the Cleveland Plain Dealer bowed to pressure from an elected official, to the extent of attempting to limit what a freelance political blogger could write on a hosted group blog and of terminating the services of the blogger to please the offical. To me, this sad episode strikes a heavy blow at freedom of expression and the purported journalistic independence of a once proud newspaper.

Of course, I am appalled at this petty exercise of political power by Rep. LaTourette to retaliate agianst even so insignificant an enemy as me. I do not believe that a Congressman who stoops to the level of manipulating a newspaper to strike back at a critic deserves to remain in office. Fortunately, LaTourette has a strong opponent in 2008 challenger Bill O’Neill.

As you might remember reading last week “on some political gossip Web site,” it was reported that State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) was reconsidering a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC). Today, Hagan announced she's officialy in the race and came out of the gate swinging:

“To make a difference in North Carolina, we need change in Washington,” Hagan said. “We need a Senator to make our voice heard. We need a Senator who will stand up, lead and make a difference. That's what I've done, and it's what I'm going to keep doing in Washington.”

“We need accountability to end the war in Iraq so we can re-invest those resources here at home. How can Washington reject health care for 123,000 North Carolina children, while continuing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this mismanaged war?” Hagan said. “Making those kinds of decisions is hard, but I know it can be done – because those are the kinds of fights I've led in the State Senate.”

Hagan joins businessman Jim Neal in the Democratic primary.

With confirmed Democratic candidates in (351) house districts, it’s again time to see how we are going state by state.

Below the fold to see the good news as well as some potential concerns.

And go take a look at the fantastic 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Alabama – 5/7 filled
The 2nd and 6th both need candidates. The 6th is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006 and it wasn’t contested in 2004 either. There are rumoured candidates in the 2nd but ominous silence from the 6th.
AL-02 – R+13,
AL-06 – R+25,

Alaska – FULL SLATE

Arizona – FULL SLATE

Arkansas – FULL SLATE

California – 47/53 filled
Well 6 races is a few to find candidates for but this is California and all of the currently uncontested districts had candidates in 2006.

The districts are all over the state and I guess at this stage we should watch this space.
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,

Colorado – 5/7 filled
The 5th and 6th both need candidates with both 2006 candidates unlikely to run again. Despite the focus on the open senate race I expect the Colorado Dems to find candidates for both these districts so as to boost turnout for the senate race.
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,

Connecticut – FULL SLATE

Delaware – FULL SLATE

Florida – 19/25 filled
6 Races to fill. It is a little early to be too concerned, particularly given the attention being paid to the 13th. None the less it would be good to see a few of these fill soon.
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,

Georgia – 9/13 filled
Travelling OK in Georgia vis a vis house candidates. 4 more to fill, all with rumoured candidates.
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,

Hawaii – FULL SLATE

Idaho – 1/2 filled
Well Idaho 2 is unlikely to be even remotely competitive unless it becomes an open race, which is unlikely also.
Sure we will find a candidate here in the time remaining.
68% Bush district in 2004.
ID-02 – R+19,

Illinois – 18/19 filled
Only one race to fill well done Illinois Dems
IL-15 – R+6,

Indiana – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and certainly a candidate will step up.
IN-05 – R+20,

Iowa – FULL SLATE

Kansas – 3/4 filled
Early days yet and we only need to fill one race. Wait and see.
KS-01 – R+20,

Kentucky – 2/6 filled
With a competitive gubernatorial race coming in November it is no great surprise that 3/4 of the GOP incumbents do not have declared opponents. Wait until after November.
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-05 – R+8,

Louisiana – 3/7 filled
See Kentucky – however the precarious state of the Louisiana Democrats does not bode well. Also the 6th is one of the uncontested 10 districts from 2006.
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,

Maine – FULL SLATE

Maryland – FULL SLATE

Massachusetts – FULL SLATE

Michigan – 10/15 filled
A couple of recent candidate declarations make Michigan less of a concern but it would be nice to see some more candidates in this state.
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,

Minnesota – FULL SLATE

Mississippi – 2/4 filled
Only 2 districts to fill which I assume democrats will turn their minds to filling after this years elections. Note that the Open 3rd was not contested by us in 2006 or 2004.
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,

Missouri – 6/9 filled
2 GOP districts filled and 3 to go. With the focus on the gubernatorial contest in 08 expect the Missouri Dems to find candidates for all 3 districts.
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,

Montana – FULL SLATE

Nebraska – 0/3 filled
all 3 districts to fill with Kleeb likely to run again in the 3rd and Esch likely to run again in the 2nd. No problems here at this stage.
NE-01 – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,

Nevada – 2/3 filled
Only 1 district to fill should happen soon hopefully.
NV-02 – R+8.2,

New Hampshire – FULL SLATE

New Jersey – 12/13
We are doing surprisingly well in New Jersey this cycle. Months to go and state legislative elections in november and we still have filled 5/6 of the GOP districts with challengers. The other will no doubt fill after November (Van Drew is my bet).
NJ-02 – D+4.0,

New Mexico – FULL SLATE

New York – 28/29 filled
Only 1 more to fill here. Expect an announcement soon.
NY-03 – D+2.1,

North Carolina – FULL SLATE

North Dakota – FULL SLATE

Ohio – 14/18 filled
4 Races to fill, not bad considering, be nice to fill these quickly.
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,

Oklahoma – 2/5 filled
Only one of the GOP incumbents opposed at this stage not a good sign at all. Oklahoma being as red as it is this is one to be concerned about IMHO.
OK-01 – R+13,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,

Oregon – 4/5 filled
The only question is who will step up in the 2nd a 61% bush 2004 district, particularly if the rumours about Waldens retirement are true.
OR-02 – R+11,

Pennsylvania – 16/19 filled
3 races to fill here; 1 with rumoured candidates. The PA Dems will fill these 3 races easily.
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-19 – R+12,

Rhode Island – FULL SLATE

South Carolina – 2/6 filled
None of the GOP incumbents have declared opponents – this is a worry. The state of the SC Dems is probably worse than everywhere else bar Georgia and Louisiana. Hopefully candidates will step up.
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
SC-04 – R+15,

South Dakota – FULL SLATE

Tennessee – 5/9 filled
Another southern state with all GOP incumbents currently unopposed. *sigh* This one too could be a problem. Watch this space.
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TN-07 – R+12,

Texas – 20/32 filled
Well 12 unfilled races says it all. Texas is a perennial concern for house wonks such as myself, largely because it sends more house repubs to congress than any other state (19). Texas also has a very early filing deadline so this is one to be watched. TX-11 was uncontested in 2006. Expect to hear more about this state later in the year.
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,

Utah – 1/3 filled
Well it comes as no shock that we have unfilled races in Utah however there are only two GOP incumbents without declared opponenets so we will wait and see.
UT-01 – R+26,
UT-03 – R+22,

Vermont – FULL SLATE

Virginia – 6/11 filled
Virginia is a little slow out of the blocks. Of concern is the 4th which we did not contest in 2006 or 2004. To be fair however there is both state house and senate elections this november as well as the potential open senate race. Wait and see at this point. On the upside the 6th will be contested for the first time since 2002.
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,

Washington – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
WA-05 – R+7.1,

West Virginia – FULL SLATE

Wisconsin – FULL SLATE

Wyoming – FULL SLATE

So in the main things are looking great on the house candidate front. However a number of states are of concern; Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas in particular. On the upside however 22 states have a full slate and 9 with only 1 race to fill.

Onwards to 435!

Days after Republican glove-smeller Steve Chabot of Ohio again voted against expanding health care for needy kids, President Bush is making sure that no bad deed goes unrewarded with a generous fundraising visit:

U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot is welcoming the president today to the Hyde Park home of Cincinnati Reds owner Bob Castellini for a dinner-time fund-raiser for the seven-term congressman.

Just how much money Chabot expects to raise is unclear. Chabot said Sunday that he “really doesn’t know.”

“It certainly will be helpful to the campaign,” he said. “How helpful remains to be seen.”

Tickets for the event, which has been in the planning stages for “a few months,” Chabot said, start at $1,500 per person. Those who want a personal meeting with the president pay $10,000 a couple, which “a small number of people” will do. Any amount raised over the legal limit of $2,300 per person will be given to the National Republican Congressional Campaign, Chabot said.

“I’m very pleased to have (the president) coming. It will be very helpful to the campaign,” he said. “It’s also always good for the community to have the high visibility of a president coming.”

The OHDP is on message:

Chabot faces state Rep. Steve Driehaus, a Democrat from Price Hill. The fundraiser comes a little more than a week after Chabot voted to uphold the president’s veto of the children’s health insurance program.

It’s a detail that didn’t escape the attention of the Ohio Democratic Party.

“Apparently, loyalty to Bush beats loyalty to children and Chabot is getting his payoff for dutifully playing Bush’s puppet,” Chairman Chris Redfern said.

In fact, Driehaus has a rally scheduled for this afternoon to highlight Bush’s ties to Chabot – and, with a backdrop of children, highlight Chabot’s vote on the children’s health insurance program.

More from Driehaus here.  With votes this bad, Chabot is going to need every penny in order to pre-emptively nuke his competition.

The Enquirer also picks up another fun nugget: while the fundraiser was actually held in the district of perennially embattled Rep. Jean “Globetrotter” Schmidt, she wasn’t invited to the event!  Ouch!

Readers of Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races may notice in the upper left hand corner of the website that we have a new addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega. Representative/Lt. Col. Noriega has ignited the grassroots and netroots and achieved broad support among the establishment. Noriega is a terrific candidate and understands the meaning of words like “duty” and “service.” Further, incumbent Republican and Bush rubber stamp John Cornyn is extremely vulnerable. To recognize State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega’s addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, I would love to see readers of the Guru’s blog put up a half dozen contributions to Noriega today. Just six contributions – you can do it! Whether you can contribute $100 or $10, please contribute if you can! Many thanks!

Time to add another incumbent to the big board of House retirements.  This edition: immigration crusader Tom Tancredo:

Rep. Tom Tancredo plans to leave the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of 2008, whether his longshot presidential bid is successful or not, the Rocky Mountain News reported.

“It’s the fact that I really believe I have done all I can do in the House, especially about the issue about which I care greatly (immigration),” Tancredo, 61, told the newspaper Sunday night.

This is an especially tough district for Democrats: with a PVI of R+10, it voted for Bush over Kerry by a 60-39 margin in 2004.  Still, stranger things have happened.  In 2006, the race for Colorado’s 5th district, a highly conservative area with a PVI of R+15.7 (66/33 Bush/Kerry) became a contentious race when the Club For Growth dragged unpopular state Rep. Doug Lamborn across the finish line to win a nasty Republican primary.  While that race ultimately wasn’t that close (Lamborn won with 59%), Democrat Jay Fawcett performed eight points higher than Kerry’s level.

In short: in order to have an outside chance here, Democrats should be hoping that the GOP nominates an especially ugly fundy wingnut here after a brutal primary.  On second thought, I don’t see how you can get much more wingnutty than Tancredo, so maybe all this is moot…

Race Tracker: CO-06

I try not to put “breaking” in subject titles, because it looks so silly a few hours after you post one…

Diana Irey, the corrupt harpy who tried it last time, is busy keeping her snout in the smaller trough of her local office, so she’s not going to run against Congressman John Murtha again in 2008.

John Russell, 45, a hawk on the war, is moving into the district to run on the Republican ticket. Of course that’s legal, but local voters seldom like it.

http://www.centredai…

Doesn’t appear to be a very dangerous threat, at first blush. And it appears to me that the only constituency that he would appeal to (rabid fans of the war) are already going to vote against the incumbent, so he adds nothing, absolutely nothing, to GOP chances in a district that has returned John Murtha to Congress fifteen times. If Giuliani is the Republican candidate, he might lend teeny-tiny coattails to this guy, but not enough to imperil the seat.

It’s perfectly legal to run for US House in a district where you don’t have deep roots or local connections, but the voters seldom like it.

Also posted on my blog, Calitics, Democracy for California, and DU.

Many in the California Democratic Party circles may not know this, but in 2008 there is a real possibility of gaining 2/3 majorities in the State Senate and State Assembly. The fact that a two-thirds vote in both houses is required to pass the annual budget and to override gubernatorial vetoes could serve as a compelling reason to vote against the term-limits initiative.

Using my extraordinary math, statistics, and HTML skills, below I included with each list of incumbents are the margins that each district voted in the 2002 Governor’s race (2002G: Davis vs. Simon), 2004 Presidential race (2004P: Kerry vs. Bush), 2004 Senate race (2004S: Boxer vs. Jones), and 2006 Senate race (2006S: Feinstein vs. Mountjoy) and the average of these and the registration margins, which I will call the Partisan Factor (PF).

Check out the discussion here.

Numbers are below the flip:

ASSEMBLY

23 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2008, 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Here are the districts which will be open, the term-limited incumbent (for reference) and the registration statistics.

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
2	Doug La Malfa	31.76%	47.44%	R+15.68
3	Rick Keene	33.41%	41.75%	R+8.34
10	Alan Nakanishi	37.80%	41.83%	R+3.97
15	Guy Houston	38.26%	39.51%	R+1.25
26	Greg Aghazarian	40.84%	41.99%	R+1.15
34	Bill Maze	32.89%	46.88%	R+13.99
36	Sharon Runner	36.16%	42.77%	R+6.61
64	John Benoit	33.49%	45.45%	R+7.94
71	Todd Spitzer	26.55%	52.07%	R+25.52
75	George Plescia	28.73%	43.15%	R+14.42
78	Shirley Horton	40.92%	33.99%	D+6.93
80	Bonnie Garcia	45.59%	36.97%	D+8.62

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
2	R+30.0	R+34.1	R+23.7	R+16.7	R+24.0
3	R+31.5	R+14.7	R+7.3	R+0.2	R+12.4
10	R+16.6	R+14.0	R+0.7	D+6.2	R+5.8
15	R+4.5	D+0.1	D+7.8	D+22.3	D+4.9
26	R+5.7	R+15.6	D+1.0	D+6.3	R+3.0
34	R+26.1	R+33.6	R+20.9	R+12.6	R+21.4
36	R+26.0	R+21.9	R+5.7	D+5.4	R+11.0
64	R+15.3	R+16.6	R+1.6	D+0.7	R+8.1
71	R+33.6	R+30.2	R+19.4	R+14.4	R+24.6
75	R+19.8	R+12.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	R+8.3
78	D+2.4	D+3.2	D+20.4	D+24.2	D+11.4
80	D+8.6	D+5.2	D+19.3	D+22.4	D+12.8

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
1	Patty Berg	44.52%	28.05%	D+16.27
8	Lois Wolk	45.52%	29.51%	D+16.01
13	Mark Leno	56.22%	9.31%	D+46.91
14	Loni Hancock	58.70%	15.04%	D+43.66
19	Gene Mullin	50.05%	22.57%	D+27.48
22	Sally Lieber	43.40%	24.25%	D+19.15
27	John Laird	48.12%	26.40%	D+21.68
30	Nicole Parra	46.45%	38.70%	D+7.75
40	Lloyd Levine	47.78%	28.12%	D+19.66
46	Fabian Núñez	63.37%	12.78%	D+50.59
52	Mervyn Dymally	67.90%	13.00%	D+54.90

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
1	D+10.3	D+22.4	D+26.5	D+32.5	D+21.6
8	D+8.8	D+12.5	D+22.8	D+28.8	D+17.8
13	D+53.3	D+72.2	D+73.5	D+72.9	D+63.8
14	D+43.9	D+62.8	D+61.7	D+65.6	D+55.5
19	D+28.4	D+39.8	D+44.8	D+54.4	D+39.0
22	D+26.4	D+36.1	D+40.7	D+48.5	D+34.2
27	D+20.4	D+35.0	D+36.0	D+43.8	D+31.4
30	R+2.6	R+14.7	D+3.8	D+12.9	D+1.4
40	D+11.6	D+21.9	D+35.3	D+33.7	D+24.3
46	D+60.8	D+62.7	D+72.3	D+72.3	D+63.7
52	D+70.0	D+73.5	D+79.4	D+79.9	D+71.5

SENATE

10 Senators are term-limited in 2008, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

*Maldonado is not term-limited but may be vulnerable in his increasingly Democratic district.

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
15	Abel Maldonado*	39.69%	37.14%	D+2.55
19	Tom McClintock	36.23%	40.36%	R+4.13
29	Bob Margett	32.14%	44.68%	R+12.54
33	Dick Ackerman	26.94%	50.75%	R+23.81
37	Jim Battin	34.57%	45.26%	R+10.69

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
15	R+2.4	D+6.4	D+11.3	D+20.6	D+7.7
19	R+7.0	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+10.6	D+1.0
29	R+19.9	R+15.2	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+10.3
33	R+31.4	R+27.2	R+14.9	R+11.6	R+21.8
37	R+13.4	R+16.6	R+0.9	D+2.2	R+7.9

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
5	Michael Machado	45.98%	32.41%	D+13.57
7	Tom Torlakson	46.81%	30.66%	D+16.15
9	Don Perata	58.98%	13.53%	D+45.45
21	Jack Scott	45.65%	28.56%	D+17.09
23	Sheila Kuehl	50.07%	25.26%	D+24.81
25	Edward Vincent	58.87%	20.97%	D+37.90

District	2002G	2004P	2004S	2006S	PF
5	D+7.7	D+8.4	D+22.2	D+27.6	D+15.9
7	D+14.5	D+22.8	D+27.2	D+39.6	D+24.1
9	D+48.2	D+63.6	D+64.5	D+66.6	D+57.7
21	D+15.0	D+27.8	D+35.9	D+37.0	D+26.6
23	D+22.6	D+31.1	D+40.8	D+45.9	D+33.0
25	D+38.7	D+45.7	D+52.9	D+53.6	D+45.8

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District	PF
80	D+12.8
78	D+11.4
15	D+4.9
30	D+1.4
26	R+3.0
10	R+5.8
64	R+8.1
75	R+8.3

Senate

District	PF
15	D+7.7
19	D+1.0

Overall, we should target Assembly Districts 10, 15, 26, 64, 75, 78, and 80 while defending District 30, and target Senate Districts 15 and 19. If we manage to win both Senate seats, we will have 27 Senate seats, enough for a 2/3 majority. If we win the most competitive Assembly districts (10, 15, 26, 78, 80) we will have 53, just one short of 2/3. We would have to win at least one of the lesser competitive districts (64, 75) to reach 2/3 there. We will also have to defend AD-30, which may not be hard if we find a candidate less divisive than Parra.

With 2/3 in both houses, we can finally pass decent budgets without significant bickering and with sufficient funding for things like mental health facilities and public transit including high-speed rail.

Well 4 more districts now have candidates:
FL-12 – R+5,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
TX-32 – R+11,
Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

351 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 118 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 118
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 59

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-21 – R+6,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 22 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, VA-06, and WI-06; 5 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***