Swing State Project

If Bob Novak is correct, then John Sununu must be looking for a new pair of pants. The Prince of Darkness is reporting that Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is very likely to enter the Senate race.

New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that she there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run for Senate against Sen. John Sununu (R). There is no need for her to move too quickly, since the state is currently consumed with presidential politics, and she already has universal name recognition there.

I hope she announces soon so the other canddiates can decide what to do. Until Shaheen confirms this herself, I wil continue to support Steve Marchand. Either way, New Hampshire is looking blue in 2008.

With the recent decision of Republican Ray LaHood of Illinois not to seek re-election in 2008, Democrats hoped to put up a strong challenge for this open seat.  With a PVI of R+5.5, such a district would require an especially strong challenger in order to overcome the area's Republican lean.  The DCCC hoped that man would be state Senator John Sullivan, who sought the Democratic nomination in the neighboring 17th district against Phil Hare in 2006 after Rep. Lane Evans' retirement.

According to CQ Politics, after weeks of decision-making, Sullivan has decided to seek re-election for his state Senate seat instead:

Sullivan will instead seek re-election next year to the Illinois Senate, where he has held a seat since 2003. He noted in a statement that he serves in that body as chairman of the Agriculture & Conservation Committee and as Majority Caucus Whip.

“I can better serve my constituents in a leadership position as one of 59 state senators than as a freshman in the U.S. House with its 435 members,” Sullivan said.

  Sullivan would have been a serious candidate for the seat, even though his state Senate district does not take in the 18th District’s population centers in and around Peoria and Springfield.

Clearly a setback for the DCCC, who would like to put as many Republican seats in play as possible.  From my observation, Sullivan was seen as the most obvious choice for this fight in a district where the Democratic bench isn't as well-stocked as in other areas of Illinois.  Could another hero emerge? 

Twenty-First Century Democrats is in the middle of our Annual Youth Leadership Speakers Series. We put on this program in order to provide a chance for the interns who flood Washington DC during the summer to hear real progressive leaders. These young people come to DC with high idealism and a desire to change the world, yet too often they only find cynicism and complacency.

At a time when bad news about the war dominates public dialogue, it has been energizing to hear from progressive leaders with integrity and courage. We encourage our speakers to talk about big ideas and their bold vision in America. One of our endorsed candidates from 2006, freshman Representative Chris Murphy (D-CT), really cut to the heart of why we don’t hear big ideas any more, why as a public we aren’t inspired. It really made me think.

“I have this feeling in general that today there are so many politicians that are so afraid to go out there and talk about big ideas, right, I mean we have become so addicted to incremental change and so scared of failure that nobody really talks about change in revolutionary terms any longer.”

Chris went on to talk about what I think is one of the major barriers to seeing real leaders talk about big ideas – money in politics.

“What is happening is that the bar to becoming a candidate for office, certainly for federal office in Congress, but also to a certain extent even to run for local office is not how hard you’re going to work, is not how many good ideas you have, is not how committed you are to public service. It’s one simple question. Can you or can you not raise the money?”

Chris first ran for public office at 24, barely older than many of the people in the room. But it is near impossible to repeat that kind of success with out deep pockets or pandering to big money. Nevertheless, hearing this freshman congressman and his colleagues in the House talk about big ideas – like Chris’ work to make fundamental changes in the way campaigns are financed and pass comprehensive ethics reform was important to me and the young people who gathered around.

More than anything, though, I am excited by what I hear from the interns that are attending the series. These are the young people making things happen right now, on the ground. They are the campaign volunteers of today and the leaders of tomorrow.

“It was a great event. My only regret is that we didn’t have even more time to spend with the representatives. – Kendra Jackson (intern with Rep. Bob Filner)

“Nice to have the opportunity to hear from congressmen, on leadership and other issues that affect youth today.” – Ann Shikany (Cincinnati, Ohio)

“It was really encouraging to hear from current congressional leaders that were young when they first ran for office.” – Shannon Goldberg (intern with Rep. David Price)

Chris Murphy was not the only speaker in our series who connected with our group:

Rep. Brian Baird on what guides him – “Something we never talk about in politics is character… character is the embodiment of values, putting values into action. And those values would be honesty, integrity and responsibility.”

Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton on her tireless effort to obtain a vote for the people of DC in Congress – “Eleanor Holmes Norton has a vision all right, it is not to make the whole world perfect but to make our country more perfect by making the citizens who live in our home capitol first class citizens.”

Rep. Henry Waxman on encouraging people to never give up on what they believe – “I hope you will leave with a renewed sense of commitment to fight for these ideas…fight for things that are more than what is in your own self interest but in the interest of all us.”

This is why Twenty-First Century Democrats does more than just endorse candidates with a “D” next to their name. We find real leaders, with big ideas and we help them get elected with boots on the ground field work, trainings, and strategic advice.

This is why we recently made Darcy  Burner our first endorsement for 2008. Within days we will announce the full list of our first round of candidate endorsements. We had an overwhelming response to our call for applications and we found outstanding candidates running for all types of office. Our goal is help them win election and provide leadership to enact bold policies rather than incremental changes.

This Thursday we have another great line up of progressive leaders: Senator Sherrod Brown, Senator Tom Harkin, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Jon Tester and Representative Paul Hodes.

If you haven’t lately, stop by the 21^st Century Democrats web site where we’ll be adding more information about the speaker series as well as announcements about upcoming endorsements and events. I'll be at YearlyKos this week, and I look forward to seeing everyone there. We’re excited about the 2008 election and we hope to see you on the campaign trail.

It’s been a little while since we last took stock of all the potential ’08 vacancies in the House of Representatives, but much has changed since our last installment in this series back in April.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeates, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-04	Gutierrez	D	D+30.7	54	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate

Since last time, we’ve added Democrat Tom Allen of Maine, whose official entry in Maine’s U.S. Senate race back in May allows us to mark his House resignation as definite. We’ve also added Ray LaHood, whose district tilts to the Republicans in Presidential contests. However, in 2006, Democrats picked up seven seats with PVIs redder than IL-18th’s (R+5.5). It should come as no surprise, then, that the DCCC has already begun its recruiting process in the district, and that state Sen. John Sullivan is seriously considering a bid.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	72	Speculation/Rumors
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Rumors
IL-16	Manzullo	R	R+4.5	64	Speculation
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
LA-06	Baker	R	R+6.5	60	Possible Senate run
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	56	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-01	Davis, JoAnn	R	R+8.9	58	Rumors/Health issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

A bunch of new names this month: a recent Roll Call article named Reps. McHugh (NY-23) and Manzullo (IL-16) as possible retirements. Both of those districts–but McHugh’s R+0.2 district in particular–could see explosive races in an open seat scenario. I’ve also added several incumbents who could conceivably fall victim to primary challenges: Democrats Cohen (TN-09), Lipinski (IL-03), & Wynn (MD-04), and Republicans Gilchrest & Schmidt. Other crumb-bum Republican incumbents on shaky ground may face primaries of their own: Doolittle, Cubin, and Don Young are all ripe candidates who may be forced to smell the glove in a primary next year.

Any other retirement rumors floating through the tubes?

From SurveyUSA (registered voters; 07/30/07, 02/14/07 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R): 49 (57)
Al Franken (DFL): 42 (35)
Undecided: 9

Norm Coleman (R): 48 (57)
Mike Ciresi (DFL): 42 (34)
Undecided: 11

Norm Coleman (R): 49
Jim Cohen (DFL): 37
Undecided: 14
MoE: ±4%

What a tumble for Smilin’ Norm since February.  Coleman, who has enjoyed strong (but hardly stellar) approval ratings for much of the past two years, now has a net negative approval rating for the first time in 27 months of SUSA’s tracking history (48% disapprove, 43% approve).  The key here is that he can’t crack 50% against a candidate with very little name recognition: activist Jim Cohen.  (Seriously: who?)

There’s been quite a bit of skepticism (from myself included, I’ll admit), that Norm Coleman may be able to shape-shift his way out of the jaws of defeat while not facing a “top tier” Democratic challenger.  With voters still feeling frustrated over the Iraq debacle, even Smilin’ Norm may not be able to escape the anvil of the thoroughly disastrous Bush legacy.

(Hat tip: Taegan Goddard)

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

I’m curious to know which SSP readers (if any) are headed to the YearlyKos Convention this week. I’ll be going, so I should also take this opportunity to pimp the panels on local blogging I’ve organized. There seemed to be quite a bit of enthusiasm for the topic, so we wound up creating three roundtables:

Panel No. 1 (Friday, 1pm) features bloggers Mark Nickolas (formerly of Bluegrass Report and now of Rocky Mountain Report), Matt Lockshin (of Say No To Pombo) and Michelle Leder (of Take 19). SSP alum and local blogger extraordinaire Tim Tagaris will moderate.

Panel No. 2 (Friday, 2:30pm) features Mike Caulfield of Blue Hampshire, Philip Anderson of The Albany Project, and Wendy Norris of Colorado Confidential. I’ll be moderating this panel.

Panel No. 3 (Friday, 4pm) features David Kravitz of Blue Mass. Group, Karl-Thomas Musselman (of the Burnt Orange Report), and Matt Singer (of Left in the West). Kossack and Blue Hampshirite Laura Clawson (aka MissLaura) will moderate.

If you’ll be at the convention, please drop by one (or all!) of these panels. They’ll be informal, low-key affairs and undoubtedly we’ll discuss topics of interest to many SSP readers – stories from the campaign trail, what worked (and what didn’t), where the future of local blogging is headed, etc.

And if you’re attending YearlyKos, let us know in comments!

By: Jordan Wells and Kevin Hrit – (Disclosure: Jordan worked as Nancy Skinner’s Online Outreach Organizer in 2006. Kevin worked as Nancy Skinner’s Field Director in 2006, and crunched numbers for Practical Political Consulting in Lansing.)

Michigan’s 9th Congressional District will be one of the top targeted races for 2008. The DCCC has already aired ads exposing Knollenberg’s awful record on veterans. Knollenberg is under fire from citizen action groups, and has been constantly bashed in letters to the editor throughout the district. Knollenberg is beatable. He narrowly won the ’06 election with 51% of the vote, and has 15% less money now than he did this time that cycle.

It appears the 9th District has undergone a sudden blue trend. However the Democratic base in the district has been growing steadily for the last eight years. Despite the growing Democratic base, Joe Knollenberg continues to cruise to electoral success versus weak challengers.

Jump below the fold for an extremely detailed analysis of the numbers from the 9th District.

In 2002 David Fink performed 2.21% below the Democratic base, with 39.89% of the vote, despite raising 1.2 million and contributing 1.2 million of his own.  In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, with 39.54% of the vote. In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. The Democratic base in 2006 was 50.49% (in ’02 it was 42.19%, in ’04 46.34%).

Clearly the 9th District is more competitive than the election results make it appear, which is great news given Knollenberg’s low vote totals in 2006. Democratic candidates in the 9th have failed to win over independent voters and even win over all Democratic voters. This has been due to a lack of fundraising, lack of connection with voters in the district, and lack of clear understanding of the 9th district.

Currently the two potential contenders for the 9th District nomination are Nancy Skinner and Gary Peters. Nancy ran for the 9th in 2006. Gary’s last election was 2002 when he ran for Attorney General.

In the 2002 Attorney General race, Gary Peters performed at or above the Democratic base in 72% of 9th district precincts (234 out of 325). This certainly puts the candidate’s performance in perspective. While losing by 4,677 votes in Bloomfield Township, Peters actually performed above base in all 36 precincts of the township. In his former home city of Rochester Hills, he outperformed base by 4.66%, in 30 of 32 precincts.  Despite losing the AG race Peters out performed the Democratic base in 72% of the 9th District. Consider that this is a statewide election, and each candidate did not necessarily concentrate on persuading 9th District voters. Peters was above base in 19 of 22 jurisdictions, and just slightly under base in the other 3 (within 2.2%).

Let’s look at Peters’ 1998 State Senate campaign, where he could campaign locally. In this election Peters performed at or above base in 99% of the precincts (155 of 156 precincts).  It is worth noting that in his run for State Senate in 1994, he won a five way primary with 51% of the votes, despite facing formidable challenges from Democratic contenders in a district stretching from Pontiac down through Southfield.  Then went on to win his first term in the Senate.

In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, taking 39.54% of the vote. These results have negatively effected the perception of our district and promoted the idea that no Democrat could win there.

In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. She only performed over base in 18 precincts out of 319 precincts (over base in 5.64%) and only 1 jurisdiction.

In 2004 Nancy also ran for Senate in Illinois. She lost in the primary (to Barack Obama), and as Kevin can tell you, being a first time candidate is really tough.

In Royal Oak City, where Nancy grew up, she performed 4.00% below base. In Birmingham, where the campaign office was located, where her dad coached high school football and where she lived during the campaign, she still performed 0.38% below base.

Gary Peters strong performances are due to the stances he has taken. He was a leader in the fight to protect Great Lakes water, earning him the Sierra Club's Environmentalist of the Year Award. Peters was the Democratic Caucus Chair in the State Senate, and ranking member on more policy committees than any other Senator. You can read more about Gary's biography at this profile article about him in the Michigan Bar Journal.

Nancy Skinner's support comes from her time on a radio talk show in the district. She promoted sustainable living, and worked on the Chicago Climate Exchange. She won a medal from working with the Clinton administration in 1993 for her efforts in rebuilding flood ravaged communities with sustainable building techniques on the Mississippi river delta. You can read more about Nancy on her bio page from her campaign website.

Neither candidate has filed with the FEC. Nancy Skinner's federal committee from 2006 remains open with $18,000+…although she has not filed any of the required reports for 2007. Gary Peters maintains a State Leadership PAC with $20,000+ (as of July '07) which can not be spent on a federal campaign, although he has been supportive of the State and County Party and candidates.

 

CRITICAL NUMBERS

98 Base 14SD : 61.08% 

98 Peters :.65.48% 

98 Peters Performance v. Base : +4.40

02 Base : 42.19% 

02 Fink : 39.89%

02 Fink Performance v. Base : -2.29%

02 Peters : 45.52%

02 Peters Performance v. Base : +3.33%

04 Base : 46.34%

04 Reifman : 39.54%

04 Reifman Performance v. Base : -6.80%

06 Base : 50.49% 

06 Skinner : 46.21%

06 Skinner Performance v. Base : -4.28%

 

Here are the numbers and facts, please draw your own conclusions.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

Jake Metcalfe, former Anchorage School Board president and former head of the state Democratic Party, announced late Sunday that he plans to run against Don Young in the 2008 congressional election.

“All this stuff has been coming out, there's been a barrage of new information about the corruption and the ethics violations, and I thought, 'You know, somebody's got to run against him,' ” he said.

“I just figured I'd do it.”

Metcalfe, an attorney for IBEW, grew up in Southeast Alaska in a large, well-known Juneau family. He worked previously as a prosecutor in Bethel. He said by cell phone from Washington, D.C., Sunday night that he plans to file the paperwork today.

Metcalfe joins 2006 nominee Diane Benson in the primary for the Democratic nomination.  And I suspect that those two won't have the race to themselves, considering that the DCCC and DSCC have been courting the likes of former state Rep. (and 2006 Lt.-Gov. nominee) Ethan Berkowitz and Anchorage mayor Mark Begich to take on the embattled Young and Senator Ted Stevens (who had his home raided today by the FBI and the IRS, incidentally).  If there are Democrats who ever wanted to move on up in Alaska and aim for statewide federal office, 2008 could very well be their best shot in decades, with corruption investigations heating up against the once-popular incumbents and the Club For Growth making suggestions that it might finance a primary or two in the state.

Metcalfe, for his part, seems to have gotten tired of watching the courted candidates wait as Stevens and Young implode:

Metcalfe said that former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz and Mayor Mark Begich have also been considering a run against Young. Neither could be reached.

Young has a large campaign war chest and any candidate who runs against him needs to start early raising money and making connections across the state, Metcalfe said.

“People have to quit waiting for other people to make up their minds,” he said.

“The Democrats are in the majority, and we've got a back-bencher for an incumbent,” he said. “He's no longer powerful. …We need someone that's in the majority.”

With Republicans mired in scandal upon scandal, Berkowitz and Begich would be utterly insane not to run in 2008.  Perhaps Metcalfe's entry in the race will bump up the timeline for one of them.

 

Pat Flynn, a Republican from Schuyler, NE, has entered the U.S. Senate race.

So, who is he? Here's his website bio:

For the past 13 years, Pat has been a volunteer youth minister with high school teens. This has been one of his most rewarding challenges in his life because of the amount of time involved and the humbling experience of sharing his faith. The Schuyler youth group has been one of the most prolific in the state of Nebraska and has received numerous international, national, and local awards and recognition for its outstanding work.

 

Pat has not always led an exemplary life. He had some encounters with the law regarding alcohol and marijuana when he was in his twenties. Thankfully, the law won these battles and today these experiences are looked upon as an asset because of the life-change that occurred. With the help of God, a recovery program and the love of friends and family, Pat’s life has changed and he has been able to help effect change in other’s lives because of this experience. Pat is not proud of this part of his past but has taken full responsibility for his actions and understands well the concerns and challenges of many others who are dealing with these issues in their own lives.

 

 I'm guessing this guy's hovering around Dave Nabity/David Kramer territory in terms of the votes he's going to get in the primary. Maybe even less. But it's been a while since we had any news in this race, so there it is.

Big news for the Swing State Project: we now have an AJAX-enabled comments section.  Now, like on DailyKos, you won't have to endure a full page refresh everytime you want to post a comment.  I hope that you find this feature as cool as I do.

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