Swing State Project

Weeks after failing in his bid to become the next President of Bradley University, Republican Rep. Ray LaHood of Illinois' 18th District has announced tonight that he will retire after seven terms in the House, according to the Associated Press.

LaHood's retirement will create an open seat in the 2008 elections, and provide Democrats an opportunity (if only a tough one) of picking up another seat in the House.  With a PVI of R+5.5, the 18th District supported Bush by a 54-44 margin in 2000, and by a wider 58-42 margin in 2004.  It would certainly be a tough district for any Democrat to win next year, but House Democrats have proven to be more able campaigners in red territory than Republicans are in bluer turf.  Indeed, seven of last year's 30 Democratic pick-ups in the House came in even redder districts than LaHood's.

So who might run for the Democrats?  DailyKos diarist MrLiberal suggests State Senator John Sullivan, a credible campaigner in the district, or Kevin Lyons, State's Attorney for Peoria County.

Keep your eyes peeled on this race.  It may be a tough nut to crack, but the NRCC can ill-afford too many more retirements like this one. 

In the Missouri Governorship race that is set to heat up soon, it appears that despite a recent upturn in highly unpopular Matt Blunt's approval ratings, (they're in the forties instead of the thirties), he's still crushed by highly popular Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon. It looks like this about to be a likely pick up, and a very sweet at that, as Blunt beat McCaskill by barely 3 percentage points in 2004, and it seemed to top off the Republuican trend in Missouri, (the MO-GOP having just come off a narrow, narrow victory over Sen. Jean Carnahan in the 2002 special election). Winning this would oddly reverse the situation, and having a popular Democrat at the helm of the Missouri Government would probably greatly help the State Democratic Party. Democrats are on a roll as it is, they took two state Senate seats in 2006, and six state house seats as well, (though they still have hearty defecits in both houses). We easily held the position of State Auditor against a strong GOP candidate and a slightly less than superb Democrat, and in a collosal victory, we took Sen. Jim Talent, one of the best funded GOP incumbents and savvy campaigner by the standards of media pundits.

Update: I'd just like to say that a Misouran has clarified for me. Nixon is definitely running and other major Demopcrats are already vyign for the AGship. Republicans meanwhile have a primary on their hands. Links: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MO_ATTORNEY_GENERALS_RACE_MOOL-?SITE=MOSTP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

http://www.electjeffharris.com/

Since taking office in 2005, Republican Governor Matt Blunt of Missouri has had a bumpy ride in his first term.  He started off with a thud by cutting Medicare coverage to nearly 90,000 people, decimating a crucial service to many of his state's most vulnerable citizens.  Things were slow to improve for the boy Governor, but the startlingly high disapproval ratings that he attracted throughout 2005 and 2006 have begun to subside a bit, and, for the first time in the last two years of SurveyUSA's monthly polling, he has a net positive approval rating of +2 (48% approve, 46% disapprove).

If Democrats are getting anxious that Blunt may be rehabilitating himself into a second term, they should take comfort by today's SUSA poll gaging support for Blunt's re-election against his likely Democratic challenger, Attorney General Jay Nixon (registered voters; 07/24-07/25):

Jay Nixon (D): 57%
Matt Blunt (R-inc.): 38%
MoE: ±4.4%

So maybe Missouri voters don’t despise Blunt with the same intensity that they did two years ago, but they’re still primed to return the Governor’s office to Democratic control.

Speaking to WKSU Radio, Republican Rep. Ralph Regula offered a self-portrait roughly in line with the common perception of the 18-term House veteran: a man discontent with being in the minority for the remainder of his career, tired of the House GOP's stalling tactics, and alarmed by the surging Democratic trend of his home state as of late:

“My chance to be chairman has probably past me by because we are in the minority and I don't think we are going to be in the majority in the foreseeable future,” he told WKSU.

“It's more fun to be in the majority, because when you're in the majority you're in charge and you can make decisions. You know, given a choice I'd prefer the majority.” […]

The massive electoral losses the GOP suffered in Ohio last year could also lead Regula to call it a career.

Ohio is “moving towards more of a blue state, and it's probably going to be reflected in the legislative races in the future,” Regula told the station. “Look, the Republicans had all the state offices. Now we only have one.”

Regula concluded that 2008 could be as bad for the GOP as 2006 was.

It will be “a challenging year, particularly if we don't have some degree of success in Iraq.”

On top of Regula's lackluster second quarter, where he was outraised by both his Democratic challenger John Boccieri and his potential Republican successor, Regula's wistful reflections are perhaps the strongest indicator yet that he'll hang up the saddle in 2008.

(H/T: As Ohio Goes) 

With confirmed Democratic candidates in more than a third of the GOP House districts (317,) it's time to see how we are going state by state. Below the fold to see the good news as well as some potential concerns. And go take a look at the fantastic 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Alabama – 5/7 filled
The 2nd and 6th both need candidates. The 6th is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006 and it wasn’t contested in 2004 either. There is a rumoured candidate in the 2nd but ominous silence from the 6th.
AL-02,
AL-06,

Alaska – FULL SLATE

Arizona – 7/8 filled 
The only district left to fill is the sixth currently represented by Jeff Flake. Interestingly this is one of only ten districts that the Democratic party did not contest in 2006 and nor did we contest it in 2004.

Surely with months to go the Arizona Democratic party can find someone to fill the breach.

64% Bush District in 2004!
AZ-06,

Arkansas – FULL SLATE

California – 44/53 filled
Well 9 races is a lot to find candidates for but this is California and all of the currently uncontested districts had candidates in 2006.

The districts are all over the state and I guess at this stage we should watch this space.
CA-02,
CA-03,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-45,
CA-49,
CA-52,

Colorado – 5/7 filled
The 5th and 6th both need candidates with both 2006 candidates unlikely to run again. Despite the focus on the open senate race I expect the Colorado Dems to find candidates for both these districts so as to boost turnout for the senate race.
CO-05,
CO-06,

Connecticut – FULL SLATE

Delaware – 0/1 filled
Ah Delaware at large. A most frustrating district. One of only 8 districts that Kerry won in 04 that are held by Republican incumbents. With such a deep bench surely we can find a top tier candidate. Castle is apparently quite popular which is why top tier candidates have given this race a miss in the last few elections.
There are rumours that Castle might retire but I suspect not.
53% Kerry district in 04.

DE-AL,

Florida – 17/25 filled
8 Races to fill. It is a little early to be too concerned, particularly given the attention being paid to the 13th. None the less it would be good to see a few of these fill soon.

The 12th is one of ten districts uncontested in 2006.
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-06,
FL-07,
FL-12,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-25,

Georgia – 6/13 filled
Not a happy scene. We do not have a declared candidate in a single GOP district. This is not good and even this far out a source for concern, particularly given our poor result in the special election in the 10th.
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-10,
GA-11,

Hawaii – FULL SLATE

Idaho – 1/2 filled
Well Idaho 2 is unlikely to be even remotely competitive unless it becomes an open race, which is unlikely also.
Sure we will find a candidate here in the time remaining.
68% Bush district in 2004.
ID-02,

Illinois – 12/19 filled
Illinois too is of some concern. 7 unfilled races, no rumoured candidates. watch this space.
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,

Indiana – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and certainly a candidate will step up.
IN-05,

Iowa – FULL SLATE

Kansas – 2/4 filled
Early days yet and we only need to fill two races. Wait and see.
KS-01,
KS-04,

Kentucky – 2/6 filled
With a competitive gubernatorial race coming in November it is no great surprise that 4/5 of the GOP incumbents do not have declared opponents. Wait until after November.
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
KY-05,

Louisiana – 3/7 filled
See Kentucky – however the precarious state of the Louisiana Democrats does not bode well. Also the 6th is one of the uncontested 10 districts from 2006.
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,

Maine – FULL SLATE

Maryland – FULL SLATE

Massachusetts – FULL SLATE

Michigan – 7/15 filled
It is more than a little concerning that more than half of the house districts in Michigan do not have declared Democratic candidates and tha only one GOP incumbent is currently facing a Democratic candidate. What is going on in Michigan? Why are they lagging so far behind the other states?

MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-09,
MI-10,
MI-11,

Minnesota – 6/8 filled
Ho hum two races to fill shouldn’t be a problem. Be good to get someone running in the 3rd it is only a 51% Bush 2004 district.

MN-02,
MN-03,

Mississippi – 2/4 filled
Only 2 districts to fill which I assume democrats will turn their minds to filling after this years elections. Note that the 3rd was not contested by us in 2006 or 2004.
MS-01,
MS-03,

Missouri – 6/9 filled
2 GOP districts filled and 3 to go. With the focus on the gubernatorial contest in 08 expect the Missouri Dems to find candidates for all 3 districts.
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,

Montana – FULL SLATE

Nebraska – 1/3 filled
2 districts to fill with Kleeb likely to run again in the 3rd. No problems here at this stage.
NE-01,
NE-03,

Nevada – 2/3 filled
Only 1 district to fill should happen soon hopefully.
NV-02,

New Hampshire – FULL SLATE

New Jersey – 10/13
We are doing surprisingly well in New Jersey this cycle. Months to go and state legislative elections in november and we still have filled half of the GOP districts with challengers. The other 3 will no doubt fill after november.
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,

New Mexico – FULL SLATE

New York – 27/29 filled
Only 2 more to fill here both in and around NYC. expect announcements soon.
NY-03,
NY-13,

North Carolina – 10/13
Another state where we have only a handful of races to fill.
The 5th will almost certainly have a candidate soon and the other two should fill in due course also.
NC-05,
NC-06,
NC-10,

North Dakota – FULL SLATE

Ohio – 13/18 filled
hhhhmmmm 5 races without candidates that’s not good. But if you look at the quality of the candidates that the Ohio Dems are fielding in the other 6 GOP incumbents then perhaps a little more time is required. Watch this space.
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,

Oklahoma – 1/5 filled
None of the GOP incumbents opposed at this stage not a good sign at all. Oklahoma being as red as it is this is one to be concerned about IMHO.
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-04,
OK-05,

Oregon – 4/5 filled
The only question is who will step up in the 2nd a 61% bush 2004 district, particularly if the rumours about Waldens retirement are true.
OR-02,

Pennsylvania – 16/19 filled
3 races to fill here; 1 with rumoured candidates. The PA Dems will fill these 3 races easily.
PA-05,
PA-06,
PA-19,
Rhode Island – FULL SLATE

South Carolina – 2/6 filled
None of the GOP incumbents have declared opponents – this is a worry. The state of the SC Dems is probably worse than everywhere else bar Georgia and Louisiana. Hopefully candidates will step up.
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,

South Dakota – FULL SLATE

Tennessee – 5/9 filled
Another southern state with all GOP incumbents currently unopposed. *sigh* This one too could be a problem. Watch this space.
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TN-07,

Texas – 19/32 filled
Well 13 unfilled races says it all. Texas is a perennial concern for house wonks such as myself, largely because it sends more house repubs to congress than any other state (19). Texas also has a very early filing deadline so this is to be watched. On the upside there was only one unopposed district in 2006 and that has allready got a Dem candidate. Expect to hear more about this state later in the year.
TX-01,
TX-02,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,

Utah – 1/3 filled
Well it comes as no shock that we have unfilled races in Utah however there are only two GOP incumbents without declared opponenets so we will wait and see.

Vermont – FULL SLATE

Virginia – 6/11 filled
Virginia is a little slow out of the blocks. Of concern is the 4th which we did not contest in 2006 or 2004. To be fair however there is both state house and senate elections this november as well as the potential open senate race. Wait and see at this point. On the upside the 6th will be contested for the first time since 2002.

Washington – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
WA-05,

West Virginia – FULL SLATE

Wisconsin – 7/8 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
W1-05,

Wyoming – FULL SLATE

So in the main things are looking great on the house candidate front. However a number of states are of concern; Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. On the upside however 17 states have a full slate and 5 only 1 race to fill.

Onwards to 435

 

The new Survey USA poll is out, and it's very bad news for Mitch McConnell.

 

Mitch has a record low approval rating of 48% and a record high disapproval rating of 44%.

Mitch thought that he would actually get bonus points for his oh-so-clever filibustering of any change to Bush's failed Iraq policy. The Webb amendment to give our troops the proper rest and rotation between tours passed easily, but Mitch voted against it and organized the filibuster. The Levin amendment passed, but Mitch again stood in the way, enabling Bush and obstructing any real progress in our Iraq policy.

Mitch lost the most ground among independents, free falling from 67/30 approval/disapproval, to 39/53. Considering that KY's independents are overwhelmingly against the war, this shows that Mitch has firmly put the Iraq anchor around his own neck by standing in the way of any progress. The right isn't happy either, as he  dropped 6 points amongst Republicans and 12 points amongst Conservatives. Women also don't like the war, and they don't like Mitch either (it's mutual, I'm sure): he dropped 11% amongst women.

This poll shows that Mitch's attempts to portray the Democrat's reform effort on Iraq as a “publicity stunt” is an absolute failure. KY voters are able to see through Mitch's spin, and they will continue to in bigger numbers the more that Mitch enables Bush and obstructs real progress that Democrats are pushing for and KY wants.

Mitch continues to have Iraq veterans and protesters hounding him wherever he goes in Kentucky. That will only heat up. He also has his first possible opponent, Greg Stumbo, forming an exploratory committee for a run against him in 2008. There is also a growing movement to draft Marine vet Lt. Col. Andrew Horne into the race. Having to run against an honored Vet who is active with VoteVets and consistently for changing course in Iraq would be a nightmare scenario for Mitch, imo.

But what about Mitch's bottomless war chest? Remember that Tom Daschle spent $19 million on his race and lost. People don't like Mitch, and there's no amount of money that's going to change that.

So don't let anyone tell you that this race is out of play, because we have a legitimate shot of ditching Mitch.

Has the DSCC found its candidate in Oregon?  According to the AP, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley is almost ready to enter the race against Republican Senator Gordon Smith:

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley plans to file notice with the Federal Election Commission by Aug. 1 that he'll be running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, two sources close to the campaign told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Merkley is on vacation in Central Oregon with his family this week, and wants to consult with them one last time before making the final, firm decision to challenge Smith, according to a strategist who has been advising Merkley.

“He could come back and say, 'We've decided that we are just not ready for this,” the strategist said. “I strongly believe that is not going to happen.”

The DSCC's wooing campaign, including favorable internal polls and face time with freshmen Senators, apparently paid off:

Merkley has met with many of the freshmen Democratic senators elected in 2006, including Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, all of whom encouraged him to run, sources said.

He's also been encouraged by recent internal polling, which has shown him within striking distance of the far-better-known Smith, who already has $3.5 million stockpiled for the race. National Democrats, who say Smith is one of their top three or four targets in 2008, have pledged to Merkley that he'll be “financially competitive,” and will likely pay for television ads to be in heavy rotation.

Meanwhile, activist and attorney Steve Novick, the only official challenger in the race so far, released a statement proving that he's a real class act:

Novick, though, said he would “welcome Jeff to the race, and look forward to a series of joint appearances around the state, where each of us will make the case for why Gordon needs to be replaced.”

How refreshing it is to hear a candidate press on undeterred, continuing to make their case for change while pointedly not whining about being “muscled out” of the race by “DC insiders”.  Rock on, Steve.

(H/T: Blue Oregon) 

First Stevens, and now Don Young (FL-AL, by the way).  How long will these geezers be able to hold off the sharks?

(H/T: TPM Muckraker and RandySF) 

Some voices have expressed frustration that the Democratic field to take on Republican Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois' Democratic-leaning 10th District is fractured between rematch-seeker Dan Seals and attorney and former Clinton aide Jay Footlik.  To the extent that Seals and Footlik both been outraised by a tidy sum in the second quarter, money-splitting is certainly a concern, but not an overwhelming one.  After all, fundraising is never a zero-sum game.

Is there a chance that a primary could be a good thing?  If Dan Seals is the nominee (and he has a strong chance, given the goodwill and name recognition that his longshot-turned-competitive 2006 campaign generated), he could emerge an even stronger candidate in the general. 

How do I figure?  In 2006, Seals ran a very competent campaign, hitting Kirk hard on his ties to Bush and the Republican Congress.  The one area of improvement for Seals lies in his Iraq message.  It's not so much a question of substance (Seals has the correct stance: “responsible withdrawal”), but volume.  This Chicago-area district is an expensive media market for any congressional candidate to run in, and Seals therefore had to condense many different themes into the few television spots he did run (see here and here).  As we have argued before, 2008 rematch-seekers should be prepared to reorient their campaign message with a strong stance on Iraq redeployment as the central theme, especially if they spent much of the 2006 campaign hitting on peripherals like prescription drugs, the cost of gasoline, congressional pay raises, et cetera.  Granted, I'm not saying that campaigning on these issues should be eliminated–far from it.  It's just that these should be side dishes to the main course of Iraq.

And I think Dan Seals gets it, especially when I read pieces like this one from Roll Call:

Seals Seeks 'Anti-War' Label in 10th District

Dan Seals recently staked his claim to the “anti-war” label now that he faces a credible challenge for the Democratic nod in the Prairie State's 10th district.

Seals, whose long-shot bid to unseat Rep. Mark Kirk (R) almost was successful last year, technically bashed Kirk for his vote against immediately redeploying troops from Iraq earlier this month. But clearly his shot was intended to also strike Jay Footlik (D), the business consultant who only recently decamped Washington, D.C., to compete with Seals.

“I am the only candidate who has opposed the war from the start and the only one who unequivocally supports a responsible timeline for withdraw,” Seals boasted in a news release.

If Footlik's challenge is inspiring Seals to stake his territory on the left side of the Iraq debate, this primary could actually be doing a favor for Seals in the general election–should he make it that far.

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

To shove the AllSpark into Optimus Prime’s chest? To perform the vital task of compiling everyone’s Senate predictions into one combined ranking? May the hardy among you fire up your spreadsheets and post the results in comments!