Swing State Project

As always, crossposted at BlueNC and DailyKos.

One of the most commonly asked questions about Brad Miller running for Senate against Elizabeth Dole is from people who dont think Brad Miller can win statewide. 

How can I answer this question?

I could wax poetic about Brad’s abilities to appeal to voters statewide.  Or I could tell you things about him that make me think that he can talk to rural voters and voters in a big city.

And then you could give me all the reasons you disagree.  But where would that leave us?

The only way I can think of objectively answering this is to offer an analysis of Brad’s past election results.  For reference I have included a map of Brad’s district.  This district was drawn for a Democrat to win, but it is only slightly Democratic.  Cook has its PVI as D+2.

As you can see, NC-13 contains all of Caswell and Person counties.  It also encompasses large portions of Granville and Rockingham counties.  All 4 of these counties are rather rural, and Republican.  Although the most Republican areas of the county are excluded from NC-13, they do not add up to many people.  These 4 counties are especially important because their rural nature means they are very similar to other areas throughout the state that Brad must be competitive in to beat Dole.

To the numbers.

For this analysis, I looked at Brad’s results in these 4 counties in 2002 compared to the numbers from the Bowles v Dole race in 2002, and Brad’s results in 2004 compared to both Bowles and Kerry/Edwards.

2002
Granville County
Brad Miller 4,236
Carolyn Grant 3,759

Erskine Bowles 6,146
Elizabeth Dole 5,511

Person County
Brad Miller 5,054
Carolyn Grant 4,589

Erskine Bowles 4,444
Elizabeth Dole 5,873

Caswell County
Brad Miller 4,113
Carolyn Grant 2,320

Erskine Bowles 3,615
Elizabeth Dole 3,049

Rockingham County
Brad Miller 12,005
Carolyn Grant 9,965

Erskine Bowles 12,062
Elizabeth Dole 13,899

2004
Granville County
Brad Miller 7,184
Virginia Johnson 5,955

Erskine Bowles 9,806
Richard Burr 8,447

George Bush 9,491
John Kerry 9,057

Person County
Brad Miller 8,399
Virginia Johnson 6,291

Erskine Bowles 6,701
Richard Burr 8,212

George Bush 8,973
John Kerry 6,198

Caswell County
Brad Miller 5,737
Virginia Johnson 3,374

Erskine Bowles 4,737
Richard Burr 4,559

George Bush 4,868
John Kerry 4,539

Rockingham County
Brad Miller 16,580
Virginia Johnson 15,525

Erskine Bowles 15,435
Richard Burr 21,224

George Bush 22,840
John Kerry 14,430

So, what does that all mean?
Personally, I think the numbers speak for themselves.  In these 4 counties, the combined vote totals for 2002 show Brad winning by about 4800 votes.  Dole won those same counties by a little over 2000 votes.  In 2004, Brad won these 4 counties by 6800 votes.  Bowles lost them by 5800 and Kerry lost by almost 12,000 votes.

These are not tiny little swings.  Brad won his race by about the same percentage as Dole beat Bowles.  Yet, in these specific rural areas, he did even better Dole did.  Obviously the differences between all of these races is rather large.  Bowles v Dole garnered national attention, and was incredibly expensive.  By comparison, Brad spent under a million dollars in 2002 with his opponent spending about 400,000 dollars.

These details about the nature of these races can explain a lot of this.  However, to me these results show that Brad can win over rural voters.  In fact, I wont just say that Sherrod Brown proved you can win a swing state while being proud about your progressive values.  I will say that Brad himself has already proved that a progressive who doesnt hide from his record can win in rural North Carolina.

Now, I understand that many will not be convinced by these results.  Some will say that Brad cant win votes in rural areas until November 4th.  However, I hope that those that are unsure will find my collection of data convincing.  If you do, please think about sending 5 dollars to the draft page on ActBlue.

From the AP, word of a state lege seat pickup in a Florida special election:

Democrat Darren Soto narrowly defeated Republican Tony Suarez on Tuesday by just 285 votes for an open House seat in central Florida.

Soto, an attorney, won the Orange and Osceola County seat with 51.9 percent of the votes, according to unofficial election results from the state. He beat Suarez, who received 48.1 percent of the votes.

This adds to the six state House seats Democrats picked up in the November election.

“The election of Darren Soto bodes extremely well for the future of the Democratic Party in Florida,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman said. “In the pivotal I-4 (Interstate-4) corridor, the Party’s strong ground operation delivered a majority of voters who chose a Democrat because they want government to focus on positive change for the people.”

Soto replaces Rep. John Quinones, a Republican who quit to run for a new seat on the Osceola County Commission.

Nice work, Florida Dems. Hopefully the sign of more good things to come.

Hot on the heels of the DSCC’s newest poll showing Texas Sen. John Cornyn in a weak position for his re-election bid, here’s a blast from Texas’ recent past:

I wanna meet the marketing genius who came up with these.  Truly powerful stuff.

(H/T: trowaman)

Race Tracker: TX-Sen

(Very interesting, indeed. – promoted by James L.)

Things are getting very interesting in Nebraska. Bruning released poll results today showing a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel among likely Republican voters.

From the Lincoln Journal Star:

Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.

The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning’s pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.

If the race was between Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, according to the polling, Bruning holds a 55-16% lead.

Full poll results are available here.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

I have to write four final exams over the next three days.  (Ugh.)  Needless to say, I don’t think I’ll have time for any blogging at all during the first half of the week.  Sorry about that.

Feel free to use this as an extra open thread.  And, to keep the discussion going, how about we do this:

In the comments, list the 10 most vulnerable House Republican seats and the 10 most vulnerable House Democratic seats in the 2008 election.  Rank each incumbent in order of vulnerability, from most threatened to least.

Have at it!

From the AP:

Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, D-Calif., died early Sunday of cancer, an aide said. Millender-McDonald, who was 68, died at her home in Carson, Calif., said her chief of staff, Bandele McQueen.

McQueen could provide no details on what form of cancer Millender-McDonald had.

The congresswoman had asked for a four- to six-week leave of absence from the House last week to deal with her illness.

She was in her seventh term representing a Southern California district that includes Compton, Long Beach and parts of Los Angeles.

She was active until very recently, in particular establishing a task force just a few weeks ago to look into contested results of the FL-13 race. May she rest in peace.

The 2008 elections won’t only be notable for electing a Democratic President. The 2008 house races will give us a rare opportunity to increase our majority as well as test our defence.

It is great then to see candidates bobbing up and announcing so early in the cycle.

And the news on the filing front is great, courtesy of the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki. Take a look also at DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

277 races filled! six in the last 2 weeks alone. This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts!)

But we also have 44 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So without further ado:
1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-26,
CA-41, [In the event of a special election but he will run in 2008 methinks!]
CA-48,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-21,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-15,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-13,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NJ-05,
OH-01,
OH-14,

3) We also have the following 37 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CO-04,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
MO-06,
NE-03,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NM-01,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
NC-03,
OH-16,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-03,
TX-10,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-11,
WV-02,

4) And last but not least the following 118 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-24,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-08,
FL-10,
FL-14,
FL-15,
FL-18,
FL-24,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-01,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NV-02,
NY-23,
NC-05,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-04,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-05,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

Praise to those states where we allready have a full slate of house candidates – Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Vermont
Praise also to those State parties that have obviously been very aggressive in candidate recruitment. Ohio and Florida for instance have nearly full slates.

Tips, rumours and whatnot in the comments please.

Given that I’ve been cramming for exams all day, I don’t have much on my radar as far as discussion items go, but here’s one thing: what the heck is up with Bob Kerrey?

Share what’s on your mind.

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Sunday Update: Former State Rep. Glen Maxley over at Burnt Orange Report brings us this fun report of a wildly successful DSCC fundraiser in San Antonio this weekend.  The event brought in $1.1 million, far surpassing its $150,000 goal and doubling the record of any DSCC fundraiser in Texas history.  There’s some other interesting tidbits included in the report as well, including the fact that Schumer considers Texas a possible pick-up state in 2008 (of course, what else would he say in Texas?), and some eyebrow-raising poll numbers from Kentucky, where Sen. Mitch McConnell and Rep. Ben Chandler are apparently tied in a hypothetical matchup.

After giving up his seat on the House Appropriations Committee yesterday, Congressman John Doolittle today had the audacity to compare himself to the Duke lacrosse players during a press conference:

I have been an effective representative for the region and shall continue to be one despite this situation. Finally I will just say that if there is anything we should have learned from the Duke lacrosse case, it is that the destruction of the reputations of innocent people can occur when the government, the press and the public jump to unfounded conclusions. I ask everyone to withhold judgment until the all facts are known and the truth can prevail.

It’s really time that this disgrace of a Congressman leaves not only the Appropriations Committee but Congress itself. However, Doolittle stated he will not resign and will run for re-election:

First I would like you to know I have no intention of resigning from Congress and I have every intention of running for reelection again. Over past last two days the support I have received from colleagues in the House and elected officials from my district has been overwhelming.

Well, you can actually do something about forcing Doolittle out of Congress. You can support Charlie Brown in his attempt to succeed Doolittle. In the last election Brown gathered 46% of the vote compared to Doolittle’s 49% in a heavily Republican district.

Help Charlie Brown by contrubiting to his campaign and by voting for him at the DFA Grassroots All-Star contest.

Read the entire transcript of the press conference here. You’ll notice that Doolittle declines to answer most questions. And here’s the audio.

Cross posted from Turn Tahoe Blue

From The Oregonian:

Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., said in an interview today that he has decided not to challenge Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

DeFazio had been the top choice of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, after a DSCC-commissioned poll showed him ahead of Smith. But the 11-term Congressman chairs a powerful House Transportation subcommittee responsible for doling out hundreds of billions of dollars of highway funding.

[…]

“I just did not feel that becoming a junior member of the Senate was going to allow me to serve as well and as effectively, particularly in the short term, as my current position,” DeFazio said.

“This was not an easy decision,” DeFazio said. “You don’t get a poll that shows you’re ahead of an incumbent senator and generous offers of support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and just blow it off. It was a long and serious deliberation on my part.”

With the only Democratic names in the race being businessman Ty Pettit and attorney Steve Novick, all eyes now turn to 3rd District Rep. Earl Blumenauer.  Sources tell me that Blumenauer will likely pursue the nomination, but we’ll have to wait and see.

(Hat-tip to hubbird.)

Race Tracker: OR-Sen