Swing State Project

From the Rocky Mountain News:

Former Congressman Scott McInnis announced today that he will take a pass on the 2008 U.S. Senate race, clearing the way for what could be a wide-open contest for the Republican nomination.

McInnis, who was widely regarded as a front-runner for the GOP nomination, said he will remain involved in politics, but that the contest was not right for his family.

[…]

With the contest still more than a year away, Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs, is positioning himself to run on the Democratic side. McInnis’ decision is sure to fuel speculation among Republicans about who might run. Several names have surfaced, including former Rep. Bob Schaffer, retired Air Force Gen. Bentley Rayburn, Attorney General John Suthers.

While this isn’t quite the same bombshell as yesterday’s news from Louisiana was, it is still a game-changing event in Colorado.  McInnis, who had nearly $1 million sitting in his dormant House campaign account, was expected to be no slouch in his bid against Udall for Colorado’s open Senate seat.  The Republican field, at this point, is whittled down to two names: AG John Suthers and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, a very right-wing figure who lost a bitterly disputed primary battle with beer baron Pete Coors by a 39-61 margin.  Suthers is an NRSC favorite while Schaffer is a warm friend of Colorado GOP chair Dick Wadhams (yes, of George Allen ’06 fame).  As the Guru notes, the Colorado Republican grassroots seem less than impressed with Suthers.  I smell a food fight coming on!

The Colorado GOP will be running uphill from now until November 2008.

Race Tracker: CO-Sen

Whether it’s advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into her congressional district (which inspired one of my all-time favorite editorial cartoons), sending out infantile, racist campaign mailers, or embarrassing herself on the floor of the House of Representatives, you’ve got to wonder if Jean Schmidt was born with some of the worst instincts in American politics today, or if she’s simply trying to test the upper limits of endurance that her ruby red district (R+13) is capable of handling.

Add disregard for America’s veterans to the list:

Schmidt, a Clermont County Republican, decided to take “several hours” to travel to the hospital in Washington, D.C., to see the situation “first hand.”

Her conclusion?

“I found the situation at Walter Reed to be overblown by both politicians and the media.”

Unbelievable.

(Hat-tip to TPM.)

Race Tracker: OH-02

A lot of ink has been spilled in the past couple of days over this YouTube clip, which mashes up Apple’s 1984 Superbowl commercial with the image and voice of Hillary Clinton presiding over a numbed Orwellian dystopia.  But whatever–you’ve all seen it at least once by now, so I don’t need to describe it any further.  Let me share with you some commentary, though, from the National Journal’s Blogometer that really dogs my cats:

We don’t know whether the creative license taken by the creator of the “Hillary 1984” infringes on any of Apple’s intellectual property rights claims (some bloggers did not even know of the original ad), but there’s no doubt the official Obama logo on the hammer lady’s shirt infringes on Barack Obama’s copyright and trademark properties. Trademark in particular would be a strong claim since many viewing the ad could conclude the logo signals Obama’s endorsement of the message. YouTube policy on intel. property rights enables Obama to flag the video, and given the clear violation involved, YouTube would have to remove the video if Obama protested.

Currently the Obama campaign refuses to discuss the spot, only saying: “There is a lot of energy for Sen. Obama on the Web, in communities all over the country … and frankly, that energy will manifest itself in a lot of ways.” But what if those manifestations come on Swift Boat-style anonymous ads? Shouldn’t a candidate, especially one campaigning on ending ‘negativity‘ in politics, move to silence such ads when they can? We certainly Hope Obama isn’t playing a cynical game of allowing other to attack for him while he stresses how positive and uplifting politics should be.

For the record, I like the National Journal’s Hotline, and by and large I have a great deal of respect for the work they do.  Heck, back in the good old days when Hotline-on-Call actually bothered to write about House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races, I would link to them regularly on this blog.  Conn Carroll, the author of this particular piece and the editor of the Blogometer, is by and large a sharp guy who has a decent grasp on the dynamics of online activism.  But this note of “concern” misses the mark in so many laughable ways.

Carroll makes an attempt to equate this viral YouTube clip with the nasty “negative” politics that Obama has condemned in the past, and therefore he argues that Obama has only one choice: that he must to pull the plug on this wildly popular video by filing a legal complaint.  Carroll and others like him should get a grip.  For one thing, this is hardly the “Swift Boat-style” ad that Carroll implies it is.  Anonymous, sure, but this ad does not in any way possess the vile character defamation of a Swift Boat attack, nor the kind of crass “negativity” that Carroll puzzlingly attributes it with.  What’s so offensive about this ad to Carroll?  If anything, it complements Obama’s narrative about unlikely actors bucking the grain to achieve impossible results.  Heck, it’s pretty easy to view this ad and see it as “positive and uplifting”, depending on your perspective.  I’m not sure what Carroll’s “concern” is trying to accomplish here.  If this is an attempt to A) preemptively disarm Obama, and/or B) de-energize his netroots base, then it’s an extremely weak one.

From Maura at My Left Nutmeg:

A few weeks after having dinner with local party chairs and less than a week after former Rangers goalie Mike Richter was introduced to the Democratic Congressional caucus in DC, Richter has made calls to key players in the the district today to say he has decided not to challenge Shays next year.

I’m disappointed that things didn’t pan out for Richter, but since he didn’t have ties to the district, I think it would have been hard to beat the carpetbagger rap. I’d like to see him return to an area where he has real roots, work the scene for a few years, and then run. I think he would make a huge splash.

But as for CT-04, Maura tells us about the great candidate we’ve got who actually is running:

Jim Himes has done an impressive job of beginning to lay the cornerstones of  his campaign against Shays.  In the past two weeks, Himes has published great op-ed pieces against Shays in the  Greenwich Citizen and two days ago in the The Advocate (Stamford and Norwalk) and Greenwich Time.

More biographical details in Maura’s post, plus some info on how Himes is already kickin’ the tires and lightin’ some fires. With Chris Shays running up a serious borrowed-time debt, I think this race could shape up to be the marquee challenge in the Northeast this cycle.

Race Tracker: CT-04

From the Associated Press:

Gov. Kathleen Blanco, whose popularity plummeted after two hurricanes devastated Louisiana during her first term, will not seek re-election, according to a letter written by Blanco and obtained by The Associated Press.

“Today, I am announcing that, after much thought and prayer, I have decided not to seek re-election as your governor,” Blanco said in the letter, which was provided by a source in the Democratic Party on condition of anonymity.

Elected Louisiana’s first female governor in 2003, Blanco, a Democrat from the state’s Cajun country, had already drawn a half-dozen challengers for this fall’s election – including popular Republican U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal, whom she defeated the last time with 52 percent of the vote. Former U.S. Sen. John Breaux, a popular Democrat, has said he will decide soon whether to enter the race.

With Blanco out and John Breaux presumably announcing his candidacy within the next few days, at the very least, Louisiana Democrats are buying an extra inning to hold on to the state.  At best, Breaux’s entry will be exactly what’s needed to throw a monkey wrench in hard-right Republican Rep. Bobby Jindal’s longtime gubernatorial ambitions.  Expect a lot of mud to be hurled at Breaux about how he’s “gone Washington” and lived out of state for a couple of years.  It won’t be easy, but I think we can all agree that Breaux’s chances, even with one hand tied behind his back due to his residency issues, are a heck of a lot better than those of a damaged Kathleen Blanco.

And another note: whomever ends up as the Democratic nominee in the Kentucky gubernatorial race should be grateful that major Republican resources will have to be split with at least one other state during the 2007 elections.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov

(It seems almost funny to say this to one of the most influential bulwarks of the netroots, but welcome to the blogosphere, ActBlue! – promoted by DavidNYC)

cross-posted at Daily Kos and MyDD

With as many friends as ActBlue has in the Democratic blogging community, it’s about time we joined the party with a blog of our own. So today we are launching our official ActBlue Blog where we look forward to bringing our donors, candidates, campaigns, fundraisiers, and bloggers interesting resources, analysis, tips, and other information to more effectively raise funds to elect Democrats!

Here’s just a sampling of things you can expect to see-

• Case Studies on some of the most creative ways ActBlue has been used
• Analysis on how and why people donate
• State Reports that highlight successful state level campaigns
• Tips & Tricks about ways to use ActBlue you may not have known about
• Page of the Week where we will highlight our favorite fundraising strategies
• Monthly ActBlue Zeitgeist to explore trends, patterns, and other cool stuff
• Major Series where we will explore how we are most relevant to your efforts in fundraising

This week I’ll be cross-posting some content from our blog as a way to introduce it to our friends in the online community. Tomorrow we’ll be releasing our version of a case study on the Secretary of State Project (which I was a blogger for last year before being hired by ActBlue). Later in the week I’ll introduce you to successful state level fundraising efforts by blogging communities and local organizations.

Our posts will strive to be informative and useful while maintaining the Democratic grassroots values which have driven us for the last two and a half years. We encourage you to subscribe to our RSS feed or sign up to receive new posts via e-mail to keep up with our latest posts (both available at http://blog.actblue.com).

Much of the growth for ActBlue and the netroots in the next 2 years will be at the state level. Hopefully I’ll be able to work with you to enable more successes in the statehouse while we work to expand our DC majority. If you have thoughts or questions, please leave me a comment!

It must be tough to be John Sununu, the Junior Republican Senator from New Hampshire who faces his first re-election test in 2008.  As if last November’s elections were bad enough for his longevity, with Granite State voters turfing Republicans up and down the ballot last November, the AP is giving him a few more reasons to worry (emphasis added):

New Hampshire’s independent voters – those unaffiliated with either political party – have doubled in number since 1992. They make up 44 percent of registered voters, more than Republicans or Democrats, and can vote in either primary, making them a potentially powerful force in 2008.

In a recent poll, 68 percent of undeclared voters likely to vote in the presidential primaries said they plan to vote for a Democrat. That’s a significant shift from 2000, the last election with contested races in both parties, when about 60 percent of the independents who turned out voted in the Republican primary.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, attributes the shift to three factors:

-Changing demographics have made New Hampshire more Democratic, like the rest of New England.

-Increasing opposition to the Iraq war has made voters generally more interested in Democrats as members of the party most likely to end the war.

-Candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have attracted enormous media attention on recent trips, raising the profile of the Democratic contest.

New Hampshire independents helped push Democrats Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter over the finish line in their House races last November.  It’s becoming increasingly clear that these voters aren’t going anywhere, especially as the White House fails to offer any meaningful course change in Iraq.

(Hat-tip to SaucyIntruder.)

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

In his diary last Thursday, Rob broke the news that troubled incumbent Gov. Kathleen Blanco vowed to run even if former Sen. John Breaux (D) entered the race.  Breaux, a strong backer of her 2003 bid, issued a statement of support, saying that she’s “earned the right to run for re-election”.  At the time, we speculated that this was Breaux’s way of pulling back from a potential run while allowing Blanco to save face.

However, louisianagirl brings us something pretty eyebrow-raising: a John Breaux For Governor shell website.  It’s bare bones right now, and we can’t even be sure if it’s legitimate, although it looks pretty good for what it is.

It’s not much, but it’s enough to stir the embers under the LA-Gov rumor kettle yet again.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov

John Breaux may run, even if Blanco decides to remain in the race.  Visit this website for more details, especially if you want Breaux to run:

http://www.johnbreau…

The Louisiana Democratic Party now has an account with ActBlue for their state legislative races.  Visit their fundraising page at this website:

https://secure.actbl…

Bobby Jindal, who plans to run for Governor in 2007, is ranked 432 out of 435 in terms of effectiveness in Congress.  Visit this website for more details:

http://www.congress….

Progressive reformer and grassroots activist Deborah Langhoff, who missed the runoff in the special election on 10 March by 89 votes, plans to run for LA-HD 94 this November.  Here is an excerpt from New Orleans City Business:

LCRM race role

In the March 10 legislative election in District 94, four pieces of mail attacking leading Democratic candidate Deborah Langhoff arrived the day before Election Day.

The mail was produced by the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, a new organization dedicated to electing a Republican majority in the Louisiana Legislature this fall. LCRM is heavily funded by GOP donors Boysie Bollinger and Joe Canizaro and supported by Sen. David Vitter, R-Metairie.

The mailers “exposed” Langhoff’s liberalism and quoted her as saying “I loathe Bobby Jindal.” Langhoff said the “hit pieces” hurt her vote total and kept her out of the runoff. For that reason, Langhoff will not endorse marketing representative Jeb Bruneau nor attorney Nick Lorusso, the two Republican runoff candidates. She plans to run in the fall against whoever wins the general election March 31.

UPDATE: BLANCO OUT

WWL TV New Orleans writes the following:

Governor Kathleen Blanco has requested television time tonight for a gubernatorial address that will be carried live on Eyewitness News at 6 p.m.. Sources tell Eyewitness News that Blanco will announce she is not seeking re-election.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

About a month and a half ago, the Guru offered you his first Retirement Watch post, looking at any GOP Senators who might be considering retirement over a re-election bid for any number of reasons.  Here is the Guru’s first update of the Retirement Watch:

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Pajamas Pete was on the RW because of his advanced age (he is turning 75 this May) and questionable mental state.  Over the last several weeks, his role in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal has come to light, as well as his subsequent hiring of lawyers as a result.  Ethics complaints have been filed against him.  It is unclear what ramifications await Domenici, but it does suggest that this previously strong possibility for re-election has undermined his own chances with one very inappropriate phone call.  Should he retire (or otherwise not seek re-election), GOP Rep. Heather Wilson would have been the likely front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace him, but she apparently made an inappropriate phone call similar to Domenici’s, leaving super-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce as the go-to Republican, a man who is likely too conservative to win statewide in New Mexico.  So the NM-GOP’s likely choices are a politically damaged Domenici or a too-conservative-for-statewide Steve Pearce.  If a prominent Democrat steps up early to challenge Domenici, it may put enough pressure on him to opt for retirement.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Since the last RW, voices both liberal and conservative have suggested that Larry Craig is not long for the Senate.  Whether the ID-GOP is trying to urge him out or are prepping a primary challenger is unclear, but the rumors are growing.

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Before the last RW, J. Warner had publicly gone back-and-forth as to where he was leaning between retirement and a re-election bid.  It has appeared that J. Warner would take another term if he didn’t have a tough challenge for it.  He has even planned a little bit of fundraising.  However, former Governor Mark Warner may be more interested in a 2008 Senate bid than previously thought.  Also, former Senator George “Macaca” Allen has held a meeting to gauge support for a 2008 Senate bid should J. Warner retire.  One wouldn’t think that Allen would hold such a meeting unless he had info that the likelihood of a J. Warner retirement was stronger than the 50-50 conventional wisdom.

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Before the last RW post, questions existed as to whether Hagel would run for President, run for Senate re-election, run for both, or retire from politics.  Then, Hagel held a big press conference and answered none of those questions.  He did say that “he would actively raise money for a Senate re-election bid in 2008.”  It did come out that Hagel, before he served two terms in the Senate, made it crystal clear that he felt twelve years was enough and that he supported term limits.  Does he still support such limits?  (Probably not.)  However, GOP state attorney general Jon Bruning has already begun putting together an exploratory committee for a Senate bid.  Is he just getting a head start in case of a Hagel Senate retirement, or does he enjoy inside info?

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Cochran had been publicly undecided on a re-election bid, holding off on a decision until late 2007, as of the last RW.  Since then, he has planned some moderately aggressive fundraising, but he has also moved even further back his declared deadline for announcing his 2008 intentions and stated that being in the minority party would make him “less inclined” to run.

DOWN North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: Her age, health issues, and failure as NRSC Chair had led many to consider her a strong possibility for retirement.  Nevertheless, she says she is running for re-election and has begun aggressive fundraising.  Also, while polling for her has been pretty weak for her overall, they are polling her as the expected Republican in the race, indicating that the media outlets expect her to run again as well.