GOP fratricide over Iraq (with Poll)

the conduct of the Civil War in Iraq may assist the Democrats in unforseen ways in 2008.

The “Surrender Caucus” of GOP incumbents faces right wing primary opposition as Right wing activist Hugh Hewitt is launching a group dedicated to generating primary challenges over the roll call vote on the Iraq war resolution. 

If Hewitt’s group proves effective they could prove to be a good group for the Democrats to shadow hoping to pick off wounded GOP incumbents in 2008.

The potential target include:

-DEL at large Mike Castle: It would be an ominous development for Castle if a serious primary foe were to emerge. The DCCC has a great big bull’s eye on Castle already and he risks his seat if he panders too far to the political right.  Hewitt could be the Democrats Secret Santa in 2008 in Delaware.
-FL8 Rick Keller: Keller is already on the Democrats hit list after an anemic 52.8 – 45.7 re-election victory in 2006.
-IL10 Mike Kirk: Kirk is already vulnerable and a withering Democratic attack in 2008 is anticipated.  Hard to see how a primary challenge from the right boosts Kirk’s electabilty.
-MD1 Wayne Gilcrest: Easily re-elected in 2006.  Hard to see a credible primary foe making life very difficult for Gilcrest’s anticipated re-election in 2008.
-MD6 Roscoe Bartlett: Bartlett won with less than 60% of the vote in 2006.  If a serious GOP primary opponent emerges it behooves the Democrats to have a quality candidate in MD6 in 2008.
-MI6 Fred Upton: a McCain backer probably has little to fear politically from a primary challenge.  Given that the Dems need to compensate for their 2006 neglect of Michigan taking a shot at Upton forces the GOP to play defense on their turf and perhaps a contested primary might generate defectors to team blue.
-MN3 Jim Ramstead: Re-elected with almost 65% of the vote in 2008.  With Jack Coleman already a primary Dem target in 2008 it would help to build strength up and down the ticket.  If Ramstead faces a challenge from the right more effort should be made to secure a Democratic opponent in 2008.
-NY25 James Walsh: he is already near the top of the Democrats 2008 hit list and if he needs to fend of a serious primary opponent so much the better.
-NC3 Walter Jones: hard to see a serious primary contest here given Jones was one of the first GOP congressional critics of the war and he romped to re-election with a shade under 69% of the vote.  They didn’t care he was anti-Iraq in 2006, why would they in 2008?
-NC6 Howard Coble: the fact 2 NC Republicans are even on this list shows the times they are a changin in NC as a Democrat resurgence gains momentum.  If Coble is going to face a serious primary challenger we should make certain the Democrats have a better nominee than in 2006 when Coble won re-election with nearly 71% of the vote.
-OH14 Stephen LaTourette: the hits keep coming from the right as LaTourette replaced his wife with a PYT and that did not sit well with many values voters in the district.  A serious primary might well be in the works here. They could merge the values attack with the Iraq attack to question his very loyalty to Conservative values.  LaTourette was re-elected with 57.6% of the vote in 2006.
-PA3 Phil English: The Democrats are in the process of generating serious challenge here already.  If Phil English faces an attack from the right it plays into the Democrat’s hands.
TN2 John Duncan: Re-elected in 2006 with 78% of the vote.  Seems impervious to much mischief making from left or right.
-TX14 Ron Paul: it is hard to see him losing a primary challenge based on Iraq.  The district knows he is quirky and it has yet to cost him his seat.  Why would 2008 be any different?
-VA11 Tom Davis: Davis might retire  He might run for John Warner’s Senate seat.  So a Hewitt based primary insurgency seems problematic in 2008 as they may not have a target in VA11.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Month 3 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances

With the Presidential race gearing up at a its fastest pace ever, it is extremely important to remember that 2008 is still a chance to strength our majority in the House and as importantly, punish the Republicans who stood with Bush every step of the way until it was politically inconvenient. So this is Month Three.

Top 50

1. MI 7
  Republican Tim Walberg
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reason for Weakness
  Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

Change: No Change
Tim Walberg continues to vote like a right-winger on everything and his district just isn’t built for that rightwing a record.  Joe Schwarz remains the wild card.

2. PA 15
  Republican Charlie Dent
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won.  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat. 

Change: No Change
Charlie Dent’s vote for the troop surge solidified his vulnerability in my mind.  There also appear to many possible Democratic Challengers. Finding a challenger quickly will be important

3. 
NV 3 
  Republican Jon Porter
  06 Winning Percentage 48%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going elsewhere. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.

Change Up
Reason: Keller move on Iraq will make him less vulnerable; also Nevada’s first Democratic Caucus should give Democrats a great chance to get organized to beat Porter.  Democratic Nominee for Gov in 06 Diana Titus is one potential challenger.

4. WA 8
  Republican Dave Reichert 
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage 48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change Up
Reason. His Iraq vote is particularly damaging in this district.  Washington State simply despises the War.

5.  FL 8
  Republican Ric Keller
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

Change Down
Reason: His Iraq flip flop will probably benefit him slightly. More importantly he seems to be engaging hard to keep his seat and that makes you inherently

6.
CA 4
  Republican John Doolittle
  06 Winning Percentage 49%
  04 Bush Percentage 61%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: Charlie Brown is in, corruption remains; this race will be a barn burner to the finish.

7. NJ 7

  Republican Mike Ferguson
  06 Winning Percentage  49%
  04 Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.  Ferguson’s positions on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason Iraq will focus more importantly in this district as Ferguson voted to defend the Surge.

8.
6. AZ 1
  Republican Rick Renzi
  06 Winning Percentage 51%
  04 Bush Percentage 54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.
  Change Down
Reason: The other districts all seem to have at least possible challengers AZ 1 lacks that currently and Iraq will not cause as much of an issue here. Renzi corruption still makes him vulnerable but he is more likely to escape.

9.
NC 8
  Republican Robin Hayes
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage 54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change None
Reason: The race is the same, everyone else has a district fit issue  while this a straight even issue.

10.
MI 9
  Republican Joe Knollenberg
  06 Winning Percentage 52%
  04 Bush Percentage 51%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.  He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.
Change Up
Reason. Joe Knollenberg is thought of as possibly retiring either way, he is a relic, in a Presidential, change has a real chance to sweep out Knollenberg. DCCC also seems to be very interested.

11.  CO 4
  Republican Marilyn Musgrave
  06 Winning Percentage 46%
  04 Bush Percentage 58%
  Reasons for Weakness
  46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason:  Colorado seems to have just too much going on,  No candidates are emerging and this district is just going to be very tough. Musgrave is still outside the mainstream, though being in the minority actually gives her a smaller chance to say the kind of things that got her in trouble in the first palce.

12.  PA 18
  Republican Tim Murphy
  06 Winning Percentage 58%
  04  Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness 
  Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.  This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason:  Hastert appears to be re-emerging as less talk of retirement appears edging this district up.

13. OH 16
  Republican Ralph Regula
  06 Winning Percentage 59%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change Up
Reason: Retirement seems like a real possibility and a challenger has already appeared. Ohio seems to be trending Blue also.

14.  IL 6
  Republican Peter Roskam
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04 Bush Percentage  53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change  Up
Reason: Hastert moving down combined with Roskam deep conservative record makes this race the best in Illinois

15.  IL 14
  Republican Dennis Hastert
  06 Winning Percentage 60%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way.  This is a great chance.
Change: Down
Reason: Hastert looks more and more likely to run and this seat could drop far and fast if he runs for re-election

16.
PA 6
  Republican Jim Gelach
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been and that stays the same this month.

17.  NM 1
  Republican Heather Wilson
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change Up
Reason: She took the wrong position on Iraq with the resolution and that is going to be  a problem.

18.
Republican Barbara Cubin
  06 Winning Percentage  48%
  04 Bush Percentage  69%
  Reasons for Weakness
  No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary. 
Change  Up
Walsh is dropping like a stone and this district benefits
19.
OH 15
  Republican Deborah Pyrce
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change Up
Reason:  Moves up as a Result of Walsh

20.
CT 4
  Republican Chris Shays
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04  Bush Percentage 46%
  Reasons for Weakness
  In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change  Up
Reason: His Iraq vote was bad for him, he moves up mostly because of Walsh but has a chance to move up more because of his Iraq vote.

21. .NY 13
  Republican Vito Fosella 
  06 Winning Percentage 57%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York’s Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot. 
Change up
  The other moved down and Vito’s corruption move him up also.

22. NY 25
  Republican Jim Walsh
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.  As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change Down
Reason: Flipping on Iraq clearly helps him in his district and make him slightly less vulnerable.

23.
.  IL 10
  Republican Mark Kirk
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04  Bush Percentage 47%
  Reasons for Weakness
  The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious. 

Change Down
Reason: Mark Kirk leaving of the administration on Iraq is very bad for them but it is very good for his re-election prospects.

24. PA 3
  Republican Phil English
  06 Winning Percentage 54%
  04  Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reason: Though he didn’t move, he seems less vulnerable because of his Iraq switch.

25.
GA 10
Republican Open
04 Bush Percentage 65%
Reason
Open seats are always likely to flip more than others, the picture on this seat will get more clear soon. But it needs to be included in the top 25 for now. .

Entered Top  25
GA 10

Left Top 25
MI 11

26.
Republican Scott Garrett
  06 Winning Percentage  55%
  04  Bush Percentage  57%

27. Republican Tom Davis
  06 Winning Percentage 55% 
  04  Bush Percentage 50%

28. OH 1
  Republican Steve Chabot
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage  51%

29.  IA 4
  Republican Tom Latham
  06 Winning Percentage  57%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
  Republican Peter King
  06 Winning Percentage  56%
  04  Bush Percentage 53

31. IL 11
  Republican Jerry Weller
  06 Winning Percentage 55%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

32. .  NY 29
  Republican Randy Kuhl
  06 Winning Percentage  52%
  04  Bush Percentage 56%

33. OH 2
  Republican Jean Schmidt
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04  Bush Percentage 64%

34.
FL 1O
  Republican Bill Young
  06 Winning Percentage  66% 
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

35.  DE AL
  Republican Mike Castle
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  46%

36. CA 26
  Republican David Drier
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  55%

37. OH 3
  Republican Mike Turner
  06 Winning Percentage 59% 
  04  Bush Percentage  54%

38. FL 24
  Republican Tom Feeney
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%

39.  NJ 3
  Republican Jim Saxton
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
  Republican Michelle Bachmann
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06  Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage  58%

42.  OH 12
  Republican Pat Tiberi
  06 Winning Percentage 58% 
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

43. NJ 2
  Republican Frank LoBiondo
  06 Winning Percentage  62%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

44. 
NY 23
  Republican John McHugh
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 51%

45. OH 14
  Republican Steve LaTourette
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%

Reason Likely to be open

  47. WI 1
  Republican Paul Ryan
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 54%

48. ID 1
  Republican Bill Salli
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage 69%

49 . 
MN 3
  Republican Jim Ramstad 
  06 Winning Percentage  65%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

50.  MI 4
  Republican Dave Camp
  06 Winning Percentage  60%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%

No changes in Top 50

MN-Sen: Interview with Al Franken

Cross-posted from Minnesota Campaign Report – feel free to drop by and keep track of what promises to be an exciting race for the better part of twenty months!

On February 14th, humorist and Air America radio personality Al Franken made official what political observers have long expected:  he will run for the DFL nomination for U.S. Senate in 2008, hoping to face off against incumbent Republican Norm Coleman.  In the wake of the announcement and, according to reports, several successful events to kick off the campaign, Franken took a few minutes to answer some questions about why he’s running, major issues, and standing up to the right-wing smear machine.

MNCR:  Straightforward question out of the gate:  Why are you running for the United States Senate?

Al Franken:  Here’s a straightforward answer: I’m not happy with the leadership Senator Coleman has provided on the issues that matter to me and to Minnesota families, and I know I’ll be a leader in the Senate. I’m going to lead on universal health care, on renewable energy, on taking care of our veterans, and on restoring America’s standing in the world.  I think we need more of that kind of leadership.  That’s the kind of Senators Minnesota has given the country: leaders like Hubert Humphrey and Paul Wellstone and Amy Klobuchar.  And that’s the kind of Senator I’ll be.

Read more after the break.

MNCR:  Moreso than most recent candidates for statewide office, your name is already known to many Minnesotans.  Which particular aspects of your experiences do you think prepare you both to run for and serve in the U.S. Senate?

AF:  You know, I’ve been in this debate for a while now, with my writing and my radio show.  People, I think, know me not just as a guy they’ve seen on TV, but as a guy who stands up for his principles and is willing to speak out on important issues.  Take my show – we’ve gone in depth on issues ranging from Iraq to stem cell research to renewable energy to health care to early childhood education to tax policy to Social Security.  I know the issues.  But more importantly, I know where I stand on the issues.  I’m for universal health care and against privatizing Social Security.  I’m for stem cell research and against the president’s Iraq policy.  I’m for comprehensive immigration reform and against CAFTA.  You’ll never have to check which way the political winds are blowing to know where I stand.

MNCR:  Is there a role for humor in the upcoming campaign season?  How will you tell Minnesota that you’re a serious candidate for a serious job?

AF:  Well, I think people have a right to be skeptical, and I’m going to have to prove that I take this seriously.  Again, I think if you listen to how I’ve dealt with the issues on my show and around Minnesota over the past year, you understand that I take the issues seriously.  How can you not?  That said, I don’t think humor and seriousness are necessarily incompatible, and I think this is going to be a fun campaign.  I’m not a career politician, and I’m sure I’ll make some mistakes as we go, but we’re going to run a really creative, really exciting race.  Oh, and, if I could, I’d like to acknowledge and apologize for all the mistakes in advance.  Can I do that?

MNCR:  Hmmm??No.

AF:  Ah, nuts.

MNCR:  The particulars are probably sensitive information, but what can you tell me about your strategy?  Will there be a focus on urban, rural, or suburban areas of the state?

AF:  I’m going to be a Senator for all of Minnesota, not just the Twin Cities.  Obviously, the Twin Cities represent one of the nation’s epicenters of the progressive movement, and I’m excited about being part of that.  The suburbs are growing and becoming more Democratic, and I think we will do really well there.  People there are interested in economic security and fiscal responsibility, and after how badly this Republican Party has screwed up in Congress, those are now Democratic issues.  And the rural communities around the state are what make Minnesota Minnesota.  It was so great to go around to Fergus Falls and Winona and Virginia and Crookston this past year and see the energy in these small towns.  You can bet I’ll be there a lot again during the campaign.

MNCR:  Does the fact that you’re running for the seat once occupied by Paul Wellstone have a role to play in this race?  What do you see as the single biggest failing of the seat’s current occupant?

Paul used to say, “The future belongs to those who are passionate and work hard.”  That’s how I approach politics – I’m not afraid to show that I’m passionate, and I’ll work harder than anyone in this race to earn the support of Minnesota’s families.  And I think this race is really going to be about character.  People disagreed with Paul sometimes, but they knew that he led based on his values, and they trusted someone who stood by his principles.  They knew what they were getting with Paul.  And I think that’s what leadership is.  So if you hear me say that Senator Coleman’s biggest failing is that he’s not a leader, that’s what I mean by that. 

MNCR:  What are your three biggest substantive issues right now, and what do you want to do about them in the Senate?

AF: Obviously, the biggest issue facing our country now is Iraq.  For the past four years, the Republican Congress gave Bush and Rumsfeld a blank check instead of fulfilling their constitutional responsibility to provide oversight.  That has to change.  Congress has to find the best way out of this mess with the least damage to our national security and to the people of Iraq.  Right now, I think that means putting pressure on the Maliki government to cut the Sunnis in on the oil, start a reconciliation process, and clamp down on sectarian death squads.  We need a regional conference that includes Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, and a redeployment of our troops so they’re not caught in the crosshairs of sectarian violence.

2. Universal health care, starting with every single child in this country.  That we let kids go uninsured isn’t just wrong, it’s downright stupid.  It doesn’t cost that much to insure kids, and it keeps them in school, keeps them from developing chronic disease, keeps families economically secure if a kid gets sick.  It’s a no-brainer, and I’ll start fighting for that in my first 100 minutes in the Senate.

3. An Apollo program for renewable energy.  We can save our environment, make ourselves more secure by reducing our dependence on foreign oil (and actually DOING it, instead of just talking about it like the president does every year in the State of the Union), and create jobs here in Minnesota – it’s win, win, win, WIND.  Sorry.

4. Veterans’ health care.  Regardless of what people want to do with our Iraq policy, everyone supports the troops over there.  Me, I want to also support the troops when they get back here.  Senator Coleman has a 40% rating from the Disabled American Veterans.  That is really embarrassing.  I’ll fight to make sure we fully fund veterans’ health care.

Sorry, that’s four.

MNCR:  Already we’ve seen quite a bit of mud being slung your way from conservative pundits in Minnesota – what’s the best way, in your mind, to combat these attacks, and what outcome will you be fighting for in doing so?

AF:  I take it as a compliment – they’re obviously very worried.  And, you know, I was a comedian for a long time, and I’ve been in the public eye for a long time.  I’m sure they’re going to dig up anything I ever said in front of a camera or a reporter and see if they can make it sound bad.  If they want to turn this race into a referendum on my career as a comedian, I guess that’s their prerogative.  But I think Minnesotans are smart people with a very low tolerance for b.s., and I’m going to keep talking about how we can make things better for working families.  The attacks didn’t work in 2006, and they’re not going to work in 2008.  They may work in 2010; it’s too early to say.

MNCR:  Finally, what does the 60-second stump speech look and sound like, here at the very beginning of things?

AF:  It looks and sounds pretty much like my answers to the last seven questions, except I say it out loud instead of typing it.  Also, there are hand gestures and facial expressions.  Really, your readers are getting a bit cheated having to read this.  Maybe they should come out and see me around the state.

Or they could watch my announcement video, which is a bit longer than 60 seconds: watch here.

SSP Quiz: Incumbents Who Lost

Alright, another installment in our occasional trivia series. In 1994, no GOP incumbents lost in either the House or the Senate, much like the Dem performance in 2006. Needless to say, years like that are unusual.

So, all you election wizards, tell us: In the intervening years (ie, 1996-2004), how many incumbent Senators and Representatives lost their re-election bids, in both parties? This range includes two rounds of redistricting (nationwide in 2002 and Texas in 2004), but go ahead and include those names in your lists as well.

If you can tell us a little bit about why the incumbents lost, so more the better!

If by “Victory Caucus” you mean “2008 Democratic Victory”

I just want to point out for everybody the existence of the “Victory Caucus,” a new GOP pressure group that’s intended to find primary challengers for House members who – like most of the country – oppose Bush’s escalation. The nearest equivalent of the netroots available on the right is all over this, demanding primary challenges.

An instructive comment:
The RINOS who vote for surrender with the Democrats should be removed from office. They join with the Party of Treason in sabotaging the war and in giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

To put this more practically: they’re talking about knocking moderate-ish Republican incumbents out of moderate-ish districts and replacing them with firebreathing conservatives who emphasize particularly their enthusiasm for continuing the war.

This would be of great assistance in preserving our majority. Can you imagine a Redstate-approved hawk trying to win in, say, IL10 or even MN3?

Is there any way we can encourage this? Maybe some direct mail to right-wing voters?

LA-HD94 Special Election: Introducing Deborah Langhoff (D-New Orleans)

The ballot for the 10 March open primary for the open Louisiana State House District 94 seat, recently abandoned by Peppi Bruneau, a New Orleans Republican who held this seat since 1974, is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear for the special election:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Louisiana House District 94,

located in the northwestern corner of Orleans Parish, encompasses the Lake Vista, Lakeshore, Lake Terrace, Lake Oaks, Lakewood, Lakeview, Country Club Gardens, Parkview and City Park neighborhoods as well as parts of Mid-City, Gentilly and Faubourg St John.  Traditionally Republican, the voters of District 94 and of northwestern New Orleans have shown signs of shifting their political allegiances.  For in 2006 they ousted Republican incumbent Jay Batt in the City Council District A race and replaced him with Democratic newcomer Shelley Stephenson Midura, who ran an aggressive grassroots campaign that included everything from humorous television commercials to women clad in aprons protesting and marching on Carrollton Avenue.  Although some claim Midura’s 52-48 victory over Jay Batt in the 2006 runoff was an anomaly that was largely the result of population shifts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, others maintain her victory was undergirded by voters’ distrust of incumbent politicians who were viewed as aloof, corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the citizens they were elected to represent.

Midura’s 2006 victory is apposite to this discussion of the special election for LA-HD94 for many reasons:  Midura’s City Council A District,

although it contains Democratic precincts in Uptown and Mid-City not included in LA-HD94, is similar in shape and composition to LA-HD94; the open primaries for Midura’s race as well as the race for LA-HD94 contain large fields of candidates along with a vulnerable Republican incumbent, although in the case of LA-HD94 Jeb Bruneau is not the incumbent but the heir apparent of Bruneau père, who is attempting to transfer power from father to son; and Midura’s campaign consultant, Michael Beychok, has been hired by Democratic challenger Deborah Langhoff, a movement candidate who similar to Midura is running a campaign that highlights the corruption and cronyism of the Republican heir apparent while promising to provide overdue advocacy and representation for the beleaguered LA-HD94 voters who are still trying to recover and rebuild in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  In other words, Langhoff is running on a compelling message of change, and she is using Midura’s victorious 2006 campaign as a model.

Deborah Langhoff is a political activist, small business owner and community organizer who understands the plight of the constituents she desires to serve: a resident of Lake Vista, her home was destroyed in Katrina.  She also has the political and community experience to wage a winning campaign: she founded Democrats in Jeans, a network of Louisiana Democrats who organized to provide assistance to hurricane survivors in the wake of Katrina; she is a Founding Member of the Citizens’ Road Home Action Team, a group who organized on the New Orleans Wiki who desire to ensure everyone receives their Road Home Program funds; she created LaRoots.net, a private database project that sustains and nutures grassroots organization in Louisiana that began as KerryRoots.net during the 2004 Presidential race; she and the group surrounding her who call themselves Beaucoup Blues organized with Jim Dean and Democracy for America in 2005 in order to “turn Louisiana blue;” and she has created and volunteered for multiple arts education programs in public schools in New Orleans.  In other words, Langhoff is the real deal, and her grassroots organization skills will be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party in Louisiana and in the United States as a whole.

Langhoff definitely has a chance of qualifying for the runoff and beating Jeb Bruneau, the presumed frontrunner, with the right amount of effort and funds.  LA-HD94 is comprised of 53 precincts, 42 of which are located in Midura’s City Council A District.  Midura won 10 of these 42 precincts, garnering 3,419 votes to Batt’s 5,385, or 38.8% to Batt’s 61.2%.  The precincts Midura won are located in Mid-City and Parkview, while Batt one in precincts located in Navarre, Lakewood, West End, Lakeview, Lakeshore, Lake Vista, Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks.  LA-HD94 does contain a Mid-City precinct not included in Midura’s City Council A District, and it also includes 2 in Faubourg St. John, also Democratic, and 5 in Fillmore, which is a lot more Democratic than the precincts located along Lake Pontchartrain and the Metarie Canal, where Batt beat Midura, sometimes by large margins.  LA-HD94 also contains 3 Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks precincts not located in Midura’s City Council A District.  A resident of Lake Vista, Langhoff will be able to reduce Republican margins in these precincts.  Midura’s 2006 victory also provides Langhoff with a precedent with which to lure voters to take her candidacy seriously. 

Although Langhoff will have to fight in order to win this seat, it is definitely feasible: she is the only woman on the ballot; there are no other races on the ballot on 10 March, which makes the open primary and the runoff turnout elections, especially as one other special election for the LA House in Orleans Parish in the wake of Katrina, LA-HD97, had very low turnout in the open primary and in the runoff, 2,300 and 5,400 votes respectively, when turnout for such races is normally about 9,000 to 10,000 votes; and Langhoff is exploiting, indeed exacerbating, a general distrust voters have for incumbent politicians, especially local politicians who failed to keep their constituents safe while never delivering the services they promised.

Visit Deborah Langhoff’s website, and consider contributing to her campaign.  Not only will her victory enable us to gain a LA House seat and thereby ensure that chamber is in Democratic hands for redistricting; her victory will be the first signal to the Louisiana GOP that they will have a big fight on their hands when they try to take over both state legislative chambers later this year.

 

Action Needed: Capito’s War (WV-02) Press Coverage

co-authored by Carnacki and SLJ of West Virginia Blue.

West Virginia Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02) had a chance to earn our praise yesterday. If she had continued on a path she had begun, we would have been the first to have credited her for doing the right thing for West Virginians and the American people. We would have crossed party lines to sing praises because bringing peace to Iraq, bringing our troops home or freeing them for where they are needed in Afghanistan — that is bigger than partisan politics.

She did not. She deserves to be called out for her cowardly action and this is something you can help with as we’ll explain at the end of the diary.

NOTE: WV-02 is frequently rated at this site as one of the top 40-50 pick-up opportunities in 2008.

She had the chance to take a stand against an unnecessary war that has already claimed thousands of American lives, tens of thousands of Iraqi lives. It has cost us allies, the respect of the world. It has not helped the fight against terrorism. Indeed, according to studies by the Department of Defense, the CIA and the recent National Intelligence Estimate, it has created even more enemies for us.

Capito had been on the course to change

During the election campaign of 2006, she mostly ran away from her previous Rubber Stamp Republican support of President Bush. She claimed she was independent of him and that she was eager to bring the troops home. She won with 57 percent of the vote.

After she won election, she claimed to have heard us.

Capito conceded the war had a major impact on her race and others throughout the nation. She called for the new Congress to “join together in a bipartisan way with the president to bring our troops home as soon as we can.”

Then at the beginning of the year, she opposed sending more troops.

“The No. 1 issue is how to get our troops out of there as quickly as possible.

She was even more forthright with West Virginia’s Hoppy Kercheval, the dean of West Virginia talk radio:

“Capito told me candidly, “I don’t see it (GeeDubya surge plan) as the solution to the problem.”

“The four term congresswoman believes sending more troops would simply put them in “very precarious situations to try to settle a situation that really doesn’t affect our vital national interest.”

“There, she said it. She doesn’t believe the “surge” makes America safer.” Hoppy Kerchival.

But what did she do when it came time to act?

Here’s how the Huntington News described it in an editorial:

Capito sliced it about as thinly as one can in a floor speech during in the House of Representatives yesterday as she made “clear” that, while she still opposes President Bush’s new surge of troops in Iraq, she cannot vote for a House resolution that says…exactly what she believes.

Come again, Congresswoman Capito? Which is it now: yea or nay?

Capito’s tortured reasoning is that, while she agrees with the content of the resolution, she fears that the Democrats may see it as a first step towards taking away funding from existing troops in the field.

Nevermind that the resolution nowhere states such a thing. Moreover, nobody is saying that Capito has to sign on to any further resolution or action by the Democrats if she finds sound cause to reject such future actions.

She said the resolution would be “tying” the military commanders’ hands by not giving them the “resources” they need.

In other words, she for opposing the escalation of the war before she was against opposing it.

Now the problem is that while some of the media did an excellent job in reporting her reversal, the others did not. Poor media coverage of her actual votes and work on Capitol Hill is one of the reasons she’s been able to market herself as a political moderate.

She’s not. She’s a hard-core Rubber Stamp Republican who is able with the complicity or ineptness of some of the media to mask her true self.

Now here’s where we ask you to action. The Rev. Jim Lewis took action. He was escorted out of Capito’s office by police after staging a protest for 10 hours in her Kanawha City office. We’re not asking you to occupy her office. We’re just asking you to call or email some people.

Room for Improvement

Martinsburg Journal, WV – by Lauren Hough – Capito comments on troop resolution

Contact Martinsburg Journal
By Email: news@journal-news.net
By Phone: 304-263-8931, extension list
Form for Letter to the Editor

Key points:
– Their coverage does not make Capito’s two-faced stance clear. Isn’t it odd for a Representative to say one thing and do the complete opposite? Isn’t it newsworthy that her actions (her vote) conflicts with her words?
– Urge them to cover the brave actions of Rev. Jim Lewis and Patriots for Peace. Capito’s action is unpopular. The depth of displeasure is news.

Improving

Daily Mail – Charleston, WV
Original Article by Jake Stump – Capito speaks against resolution critical of Iraq troop surge
Updated Article by Jake Stump – Capito opposes Iraq resolution

Contact Jake Stump
By Email: jakestump@dailymail.com.
By Email via form.
By Phone: 304-348-4842

Key Points
– Thank them for correcting the mis-impression left by their original coverage.
– Urge them to cover the brave actions of Rev. Jim Lewis and Patriots for Peace. Capito’s action is unpopular. The depth of displeasure is news.

Nice List

HNN Huntingtonnews.net – WV
Article (by HNN Staff): Capito Opposes Troop ‘Surge,’ Also Opposes Democratic Iraq Resolution in House
Editorial: Capito Has Her Cake, Eats It, Too, and Then Some

Contact HuntingtonNews.Net
Contact information.

Key Points
– Thank them for their strong coverage of the story.
– Express your interest in hearing more news about anti-war protests in the area including Rev. Jim Lewis and Patriots for Peace demonstration at Capito’s office.

In Summary
Thank you for your help. This is how we stop the Iraq war–this is how we turn a red district blue–by fighting every day for what is right.

NC-SEN: Dole Vulnerable Against Etheridge

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is still showing vulnerability in recent polls, even if her opponent in not Mike Easley. A new poll has Dole leading 45-30 against Congressman Bob Etheridge.

A new poll out Wednesday has Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole dominating a hypothetical race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, but the numbers expose a few weaknesses for the incumbent senator, the poll’s author said.

Dole, of Salisbury, has been dogged by rumors about whether she will run in 2008, especially in the wake of a catastrophic outcome for Senate Republicans after her term as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign.

Dole says she’s running.

The poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows Dole running ahead of Etheridge, 45 percent to 30 percent, among likely voters.

But Dean Debnam, president of the company, pointed out that Dole enjoys more name recognition than Etheridge, a Lillington congressman known mostly in his district south and east of the Triangle.

“Dole is not necessarily in a very strong position,” Debnam said.

Etheridge’s name has been floated in the past as a possible senatorial candidate. His spokeswoman said Wednesday he isn’t planning a Senate run in 2008.

“Right now his focus is on working on his committees on issues important to North Carolina,” said spokeswoman Joanne Peters.

Dole political consultant Mark Stephens disputed the accuracy of the poll, which was conducted through automatic phone calls. Respondents signaled their choices by punching numbers on the phone.

“I don’t know a campaign worth its salt that would utilize this kind of polling,” Stephens said. “They don’t even know who they’re talking to on the other end of the phone. It could be a 12-year-old kid.”

Debnam said the polling group will pit other hypothetical candidates, perhaps including U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of Raleigh, against Dole in future polls.

A poll by the group last month showed Gov. Mike Easley beating Dole by 44 percent to 41 percent.

The Dole-Etheridge poll was conducted Monday by automatic phone calls of 448 likely voters. The survey’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but it mirrors similar problems she is having in a hypothetical match-up against former Gov. Easley, who has thus far declined to run. Some will also point to Jesse Helms who constantly polled terribly but won elections. But I would argue that Dole does not command the rabid loyalty that Helms did. She’s clearly vulnerable and we need to keep up the pressure.

Friday Evening Round-Up

I’ve been nursing a nasty case of bronchitis this week, so I think that I’m only going to have energy to do a round-up style post this evening.  Let’s hit the ground running:

    –NY-20: Recently-ousted ex-Rep. John Sweeney is apparently mulling a rematch against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.  I can only pray that the local GOP is foolish and/or desperate enough to let this thug try again. (Hat tip to the Political Wire.)
    –TN-Sen: Dailykos diarist Sidof79 has an excellent rundown of possible competitors against Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander next year, from Harold Ford, Jr. to Tim McGraw.
    –NC-Sen: In a hypothetical election match-up, Sen. Elizabeth Dole beats Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge by a 45-30 margin, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling.  That’s not especially strong.  (Hat-tips to Blue South and Senate 2008 Guru.)
    –LA-Gov: According to the Cook Political Report, former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering running for Governor this year.  Breaux’s Senate politics relied heavily on backroom, floor-crossing “dealmaking”, but I’d be content to let him have a try at this.  He’s our best shot at keeping the Louisiana Gubernatorial office in the Blue column.
    –MI-07: The locals blast Republican Tim Walberg for supporting escalation in Iraq.