Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana. John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true. Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.
None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.
Breaux is certainly no favorite of mine – indeed, it’s probably hard for most movement progressives to feel too warmly about him. However, it’s not as though I carry a torch for Blanco, and his entrance into this race would be an immediate game-changer. He’d transform this from an uphill battle to a likely hold, and if he won a second term, he’d be around for redistricting. (LA is a state where, if we’re willing to play hardball, we can pick up at least a seat or two with friendlier lines.)
Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:
February 16, 2007
Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana. John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true. Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.
None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.
John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:
Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.
If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously. For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively. And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish. Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton RougeParish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had muchdifficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising.
Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race. For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:
Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.
In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.
I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana. Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.
But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff: Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso. Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run. But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign. Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million. Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest. We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux.
If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting. As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included. If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman. And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge. John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold.
While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago. A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007. And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.
And what of Foster Campell, you may ask? It is a legitimate question. Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux. Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism.
Cross-posted at the brand new BlueIndiana.net. Check it out — Indiana’s been underrepresented in the blogosphere, but played a huge part in moving the House from red to blue. It’d be great to establish Blue Indiana as the Hoosier State’s version of some great sites like My Left Nutmeg and Blue Hampshire.
This is bizarre. In an article on HispanicBusiness.com, it’s mentioned in an article about what happens after Castro dies that Burton is going to announce his candidacy for President:
It was followed, four years later, by the even more swinging Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, aka the HelmsBurton Act, after its authors, the late Senator Jesse Helms and Congressman Dan Burton (who is about to announce his candidacy for the Republican 2008 presidential nomination). This, among many other things, made it illegal under U.S. law for foreign countries to trade with Cuba or for a U.S. administration even to recognise a transitional government from Fidel to Raul.
Are we serious? Can that possibly be accurate? Am I reading that right? Is this something that I’ve missed?
Burton, if you’ll recall, is the Indiana 5th District Congressman who skipped a good chunk of House votes in January to play golf. He’s in a district that Democrats have no chance to win — no chance, that is, unless Burton doesn’t run for re-election.
Recent news that Linda Stender, Eric Massa, Dan Maffei and Larry Kissell, to name a few, are all considering rematches inspired me to create a diary to help find challengers to vulnerable Republicans. Who better to suggest candidates than people who live in or no these districts on an intimate level.
Finding the next Harry Mitchell could turn a Safe GOP seat into a pickup.
Here’s my list of the top fifty GOP house seats that could be in danger in 2008.
Rogers, Mike, Alabama, 3rd
Renzi, Rick, Arizona, 1st
Bilbray, Brian P., California, 50th
Doolittle, John, California, 4th
Musgrave, Marilyn, Colorado, 4th
Shays, Christopher, Connecticut, 4th
Castle, Michael N*., Delaware, At Large
Keller, Ric, Florida 8th
Young, C.W. Bill*, Florida, 10th
Buchanan, Vern, Florida, 13th
Latham, Tom *, Iowa, 4th
Roskam, Peter J., Illinois, 6th
Kirk, Mark., Illinois, 10th
Souder, Mark E., Indiana, 3rd
Walberg, Timothy, Michigan, 7th
Rogers, Mike, Michigan, 8th
Knollenberg, Joseph, Michigan, 9th
McCotter, Thaddeus, Michigan, 11th
Bachmann, Michele, Minnesota, 6th
Ramstad, Jim *, Minnesota, 3rd
Rehberg, Dennis, Montana, At Large
Fortenberry, Jeff, Nebraska, 1st
Terry, Lee, Nebraska, 2nd
Ferguson, Michael, New Jersey, 7th
Garrett, Scott, New Jersey, 5th
LoBiondo, Frank, New Jersey, 2nd
Heller, Dean, Nevada, 2nd
Porter, Jon, Nevada, 3rd
Kuhl Jr., John R. “Randy”, New York, 29th
Wilson, Heather, New Mexico, 1st
King, Pete, New York, 3rd
Fossella, Vito, New York, 13th
Reynolds, Thomas M., New York, 26th
Walsh, Jim, New York, 25th
Hayes, Robin, North Carolina, 8th
Chabot, Steve, Ohio, 1st
Schmidt, Jean, Ohio, 2nd
Tiberi, Pat, Ohio, 12th
Pryce, Deborah, Ohio, 15th
Regula, Ralph *, Ohio, 16th
English, Phil, Pennsylvania, 3rd
Gerlach, Jim, Pennsylvania, 6th
Dent, Charles W., Pennsylvania, 15th
Murphy, Tim, Pennsylvania, 18th
Paul, Ron, Texas, 14th
Drake, Thelma D., Virginia, 2nd
Wolf, Frank, Virginia, 10th
Davis, Tom, Virginia, 11th
Reichert, David G., Washington, 8th
Ryan, Paul*, Wisconsin, 1st
Capito, Shelley Moore, West Virginia, 2nd
Cubin, Barbara, Wyoming, At Large
* This race is only competitive if the incumbent retires or runs for another office.
2006 left us with few “low hanging fruit” targets.
Seats like PA-06, NV-03, OH-15, NY-25, NC-08 WA-08 and NM-01 need top challenges, as do lower tier races like IL-10 and PA-15. Let’s find the next batch of Democratic Congresspeople.
Here’s some names to start with: Steve Udall in AZ-01, Andy Dinniman in PA-06 and Joe Turnham in AL-2
During the 2006 election cycle, you may recall that the DCCC had a modestly-sized “Frontline 10” program, identifying potentially endangered incumbents for additional support and resources. In 2006, that slate included Reps. John Barrow (GA-12), Melissa Bean (IL-08), Leonard Boswell (IA-03), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL), Brian Higgins (NY-27), Jim Matheson (UT-02), Charlie Melancon (LA-03), Dennis Moore (KS-03), and John Salazar (CO-03).
Unsurprisingly, with the surge of freshmen Democrats entering the House last November, this program has been expanded dramatically to 29 incumbents:
Jason Altmire (PA-04)
Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
John Barrow (GA-12)
Melissa Bean (IL-08)
Leonard Boswell (IA-03)
Christopher Carney (PA-10)
Joe Courtney (CT-02)
Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Chet Edwards (TX-17)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08)
Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
John Hall (NY-19)
Baron Hill (IN-09)
Paul Hodes (NH-02)
Steve Kagen (WI-08)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Nick Lampson (TX-22)
Tim Mahoney (FL-16)
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Harry Mitchell (AZ-05)
Christopher Murphy (CT-05)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23)
Heath Shuler (NC-11)
Zack Space (OH-18)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
John Yarmuth (KY-03)
Barrow, Bean, Boswell, and Edwards appear to be the only holdovers from the class of 2006. Rep. Jim Marshall is the only non-freshman addition to this list.
On the face of it, there are some fairly surprising omissions from this list: fresmen Reps. David Loebsack (IA-02), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Nancy Boyda (KS-02), and Joe Sestak (PA-07). But before jumping to conclusions, I touched bases with the DCCC, and they released the following statement regarding the omission of Shea-Porter and Boyda:
Representatives Boyda and Shea-Porter ran strong, independent grassroots campaigns. Should the Republicans target them with misleading or baseless attacks we stand ready to help.
That has me breathing a lot easier. Boyda and Shea-Porter won on the strength of intensely local, intensely grassroots campaigns, and it seems clear that the DCCC will let them do their own thing in their re-election bids, but will not hesitate to intervene with independent expenditures should the Republicans attack machine land some body blows against these Representatives.
The omission of Sestak and Loebsack is probably based on the DCCC’s confidence in Democrats being able to hold districts with a Democratic lean (D+3.6 for Sestak, and D+6.9 for Loebsack). I won’t disagree with that, but Loebsack probably could use some extra scratch to more firmly entrench himself in his district.
The other omission that I’m seeing here is Rep. Julia Carson (IN-07). While she may represent a decently Democratic district (Kerry did win 58% here, after all), her 8-point victory against a badly underfunded challenger in 2006 has got to be cause for concern. Perhaps the DCCC is betting on a retirement here. Who knows.
In 2006, we saw an mini-sized Frontline Program and an huge Red To Blue list. Expect a reversal in 2008.
We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008. 21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect. And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats. This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”
DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.
Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.
Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.
This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.
Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum. After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment. And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss. Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.
2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid. However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside
9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign
10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court
11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)
12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)
Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements. While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.
Cross-posted from Minnesota Campaign Report – check back for more news on Franken’s kickoff. Robin Marty is liveblogging Franken’s final show on Air America here at Minnesota Monitor – check that out too!
Today, entertainer Al Franken has made official his candidacy for the DFL nomination for U.S. Senate.
In his announcement, Franken discussed his background and focused on what government can do for families: namely education assistance and social security:
Your government should have your back. That should be our mission in Washington, the one FDR gave us during another challenging time: freedom from fear.
Franken’s announcement follows that of fellow DFLer and trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, who announced the formation of an exploratory committee earlier this week. Some twenty months from now, the DFL nominee will face off against incumbent Republican Norm Coleman for the seat once held by Paul Wellstone.
Some other choice quotes:
It’s different for middle-class families, too. These families are being squeezed harder and harder every year. Maybe you know what it’s like to be one health crisis away from bankruptcy. Maybe you, or your parents or grandparents, can’t afford prescriptions. Maybe you have kids, and you’re worried about paying for their college. Maybe someone you love is in Iraq, and you don’t know how long they’ll have to stay there, or what will happen when they come home.
…
President Clinton used to say that there’s nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by what’s right with America, or, as I would add, by what’s right with Minnesota. We can lead the fight against global warming and dependence on foreign oil by developing new sources of renewable energy-and create good Minnesota jobs in the process. We can lead the nation in finding life-saving cures by harnessing the potential of stem-cell research. We can lead the nation by sending someone to the Senate who’ll be a voice for a strong and responsible America, one that uses its relationship with our allies to create a better and more secure world for ourselves and for future generations.
You’ll find the complete text of Franken’s announcement speech in the extended entry.
Hi, I’m Al Franken. I’m running for the United States Senate here in Minnesota.
I’d like to talk to you about why I’m running.
I’m not a typical politician. I’ve spent my career as a comedian. Minnesotans have a right to be skeptical about whether I’m ready for this challenge, and to wonder how seriously I would take the responsibility that I’m asking you to give me.
I want you to know: nothing means more to me than making government work better for the working families of this state, and over the next twenty months I look forward to proving to you that I take these issues seriously.
Today, however, I want to take a few moments to explain to you why I take these issues personally.
My family moved to Albert Lea from New Jersey when I was four years old. My dad never graduated high school and never had a career as such, but my mom’s father, my grandpa, owned a quilting factory out East and gave my dad a chance to start up a new factory in Albert Lea. After about two years, the factory failed, and we moved up to the Twin Cities.
Years later, I asked my dad, “Why Albert Lea?” And he said, “Well, your grandfather wanted to open a factory in the Midwest, and the railroad went through Albert Lea.”
So, I asked him, “Why did the factory fail?”
And he said, “Well, it went through Albert Lea, but it wouldn’t stop.”
That was my dad – great guy, terrible businessman. He got a job as a printing salesman, and my mom worked as a real estate agent. The four of us – I have an older brother, Owen – lived in a two-bedroom, one-bath house in St. Louis Park.
That was my childhood. I grew up in a hard-working middle class family just like many of yours. And as a middle-class kid growing up in Minnesota back then, I felt like the luckiest kid in the world. And I was.
My wife, Franni, whom I met our freshman year of college, wasn’t quite as lucky. When she was seventeen months old, her dad – a decorated veteran of World War II – died in a car accident, leaving her mother, my mother-in-law, widowed with five kids.
My mother-in-law worked in the produce department of a grocery store, but that family made it because of Social Security survivor benefits. Sometimes there wasn’t enough food on the table, sometimes they turned off the heat in the winter – this was in Portland, Maine, almost as cold as Minnesota – but they made it.
Every single one of the four girls in Franni’s family went to college, thanks to Pell Grants and other scholarships. My brother-in-law, Neil, went into the Coast Guard, where he became an electrical engineer.
And my mother-in-law got herself a $300 GI loan to fix her roof, and used the money instead to go to the University of Maine. She became a grade school teacher, teaching Title One kids – poor kids – and so her loan was forgiven.
My mother-in-law and every single one of those five kids became a productive member of society. Conservatives like to say that people need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps – and that’s a great idea. But first, you’ve got to have the boots. And the government gave my wife’s family the boots.
That’s what progressives like me believe the government is there for. To provide security for middle-class families like the one I grew up in, and opportunity for working poor families like the one Franni grew up in.
By the way, I stole that boots line from Tim Walz, our great new congressman from Southern Minnesota. Tim’s father died when he was a kid, and he and his brother and his mom made it because of Social Security.
Last year I traveled all over the state of Minnesota on behalf of Tim and other Democrats: from Waseca and Wabasha up to Fergus Falls and Detroit Lakes, over to Bemidji and the Iron Range, from Duluth down to Albert Lea, I was in Hastings and all over the metro, up in St. Cloud a few times, eating a lot of beans and buns and burgers and maybe a few too many Dairy Queens along the way. But most importantly, I talked to Minnesotans and listened.
They told me that they’re sick of politics as usual-and they’re sick of the usual politicians.
And I’ll tell you what else they told me. It’s different now than it was for me and Franni. When Franni’s sisters were using them to go to college, Pell Grants paid for 90% of a college education. Today, they pay for 40%. And President Bush, with the help of his Republican allies in Congress, have even tried to privatize Social Security. You should have heard Franni when they tried to do that.
It’s different for middle-class families, too. These families are being squeezed harder and harder every year. Maybe you know what it’s like to be one health crisis away from bankruptcy. Maybe you, or your parents or grandparents, can’t afford prescriptions. Maybe you have kids, and you’re worried about paying for their college. Maybe someone you love is in Iraq, and you don’t know how long they’ll have to stay there, or what will happen when they come home.
Middle-class families today struggle with that feeling of insecurity-the sense that things can fall apart without notice, outside of your control.
Your government should have your back. That should be our mission in Washington, the one FDR gave us during another challenging time: freedom from fear.
Americans have never backed away from challenges. And Minnesotans have always led the way. Our state has sent strong, progressive leaders to Washington-from Hubert Humphrey to Walter Mondale to Paul Wellstone, and now to Amy Klobuchar. Minnesota’s public servants might not always look and sound like typical politicians, but they stand by their principles and lead by their values.
That’s the kind of leader I think we need more of these days, and that’s the kind of Senator I’ll be.
President Clinton used to say that there’s nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by what’s right with America, or, as I would add, by what’s right with Minnesota. We can lead the fight against global warming and dependence on foreign oil by developing new sources of renewable energy-and create good Minnesota jobs in the process. We can lead the nation in finding life-saving cures by harnessing the potential of stem-cell research. We can lead the nation by sending someone to the Senate who’ll be a voice for a strong and responsible America, one that uses its relationship with our allies to create a better and more secure world for ourselves and for future generations.
My political hero is Paul Wellstone. He used to say, “The future belongs to those who are passionate and work hard.” I may be a comedian by trade, but I’m passionate about the issues that matter to your family because they mattered to mine, too. And I’m ready to work as hard as I can to help us build a better future together.
Thanks for listening, and I’ll see you on the trail.
Folling the tragic news of Charlie Norwood’s death, the Republican vultures took little time to circle the sky above his still-warm body. Two Democrats were also mentioned, but none yet have announced
State Senator Ralph Hudgens (R) — who lost runs for Congress in 1988, 1992 and 1994 — already announced he will run. Hudgens was the early frontrunner in the 1994 GOP primary, but Norwood defeated him in an upset. State Representative Barry Fleming (R) also is likely to run. State Representative Jeanette Jamieson (D) and former Athens-Clarke County Mayor Doc Eldridge (D) are also possible candidates, although CD-10 demographics favor the GOP.
No date has been announced yet, but we should be prepared to at least make the Republicans work for it.
No, that’s not a typo. Inspired by DailyKos diarists Senate 2008 Guru (whose own blog can be found here) and jedinecny, why don’t we look ahead–far ahead–to 2010 and ponder what the Senate race picture might look like. 34 seats are up for grabs in 2010, 19 held by Republicans, and 15 by Democrats:
Alabama (Shelby-R)
Alaska (Murkowski-R)
Arizona (McCain-R)
Arkansas (Lincoln-D)
California (Boxer-D)
Colorado (Salazar-D)
Connecticut (Dodd-D)
Florida (Martinez-R)
Georgia (Isakson-R)
Hawaii (Inouye-D)
Idaho (Crapo-R)
Illinois (Obama-D)
Indiana (Bayh-D)
Iowa (Grassley-R)
Kansas (Brownback-R)
Kentucky (Bunning-R)
Louisiana (Vitter-R)
Maryland (Mikulski-D)
Missouri (Bond-R)
Nevada (Reid-D)
New Hampshire (Gregg-R)
New York (Schumer-D)
North Carolina (Burr-R)
North Dakota (Dorgan-D)
Ohio (Voinovich-R)
Oklahoma (Coburn-R)
Oregon (Wyden-D)
Pennsylvania (Specter-R)
South Carolina (DeMint-R)
South Dakota (Thune-R)
Utah (Bennett-R)
Vermont (Leahy-D)
Washington (Murray-D)
Wisconsin (Feingold-D)
On the surface, that’s a fairly good plate for Democrats. Remember, this is the culmination of the 2004 cycle, which by all measures was a disaster for Team Blue with the loss of 5 Southern seats due to retirements (Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina), so the GOP has already squeezed out a fair amount of blood from this class. Perhaps it’s time for the pendulum to swing the other way. It’d be hard to imagine unpopular Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, for instance, running again in 2010. Bunning would leave an open seat for the likes of Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler, who would have a good shot against any Republican, and probably an even better shot should Bunning decide to throw another pitch into the mound. Retirements by Republican incumbents in Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania or Missouri could sweeten the deal even further.
It goes without saying, of course, that national dynamics–such as the popularity of the next President–could seriously alter the playing field beyond anything we can anticipate today. That said, though, this is just for kicks. So: how does 2010 look to you?
New York State voters approve 61 – 11 percent of the job Gov. Eliot Spitzer is doing and say 61 – 24 percent that his “Steamroller Style” is good for the people, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
If there was ever any question that New Yorkers had doubts with Governor Spitzer’s aggressive agenda for progressive reform in the face of a slow-moving legislature, this should set the record straight:
Voters disapprove 48 – 31 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver gets a negative 28 – 37 percent score, while Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno gets a negative 25 – 39 percent rating, among the lowest ratings for these leaders.
With negatives like those, Silver and Bruno could stand to learn a thing or two from the ‘Roller.
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