Swing State Project

SUSA has released 3 more polls: IN-09, Hill-D down by 2; OH-06, Wilson-D up by 19; and MD-Gov, O’Malley up by 1. More below the fold.

IN-09:

Hill (D): 44

Sodrel (R-inc.): 46

Schansberg (L): 5

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Schansberg is pulling Liberal support away from Hill-D to the tune of picking up 11% of the Liberal vote, 2% of the Conservative vote, and 5% from Moderates.

OH-06 (OPEN):

Wilson (D): 58

Blasdell (R): 39

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.2%)

MD-Gov:

O’Malley (D): 48

Ehrlich (R-inc.): 47

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.8%)

(From the diaries with minor editing – promoted by James L.)

You have GOT to check out this independent poll!

http://www.ktvb.com/…

Yes, the number of undecideds is absurd, the MOE is huge, and our margins our slim, but HOLY GOD this is wonderful news! God bless Howard Dean and the fifty state strategy! WE’RE LEADING IN FRIGGIN’ IDAHO!

ID-Gov:

Jerry Brady (D): 41

Butch Otter (R): 36

Undecided: 20

MoE: ±4.4%

ID-01:

Larry Grant (D): 38

Bill Sali (R): 34

Undecided: 25

MoE: ±5.7%

On the web: Larry Grant  |  Jerry Brady

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

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Now with color-coded map! A little rough-hewn, but you get the idea (I love David, but I’m afraid we’ll have to keep him away from the crayolas from now on. Here’s a somewhat better-looking map–James L.):

Note: States with two poll closing times are color-coded according to the earlier closing time, except for Oregon, where the majority of the state is in the later time zone. And if you can’t see the map, click here for a mirror link. And just to be clear, these times are all Eastern, NOT local. Also, it looks like voters in some precincts of Indiana will be able to vote until 9pm local.

Below is a list of poll closing times in every state in the nation, plus a selection of key House, Senate and gubernatorial races in 44 of them:

State	EST	Race(s) to Watch
Indiana (Eastern)	6:00pm	IN-02, IN-03, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09
Kentucky (Eastern)	6:00pm	KY-02, KY-03, KY-04
Florida (Peninsula)	7:00pm	FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-24, FL-Gov
Georgia	7:00pm	GA-08, GA-12
Indiana (Western)	7:00pm	IN-02, IN-03, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09
Kentucky (Western)	7:00pm	KY-02, KY-03, KY-04
New Hampshire (Townships)	7:00pm	NH-01, NH-02
South Carolina	7:00pm	SC-05, SC-Gov
Vermont	7:00pm	VT-AL
Virginia	7:00pm	VA-02, VA-10, VA-Sen
North Carolina (Standard)	7:30pm	NC-08, NC-11, NC-13
Ohio	7:30pm	OH-01, OH-02, OH-12, OH-15, OH-18, OH-Gov, OH-Sen
West Virginia	7:30pm	WV-01, WV-02
Alabama	8:00pm	AL-Gov
Connecticut	8:00pm	CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, CT-Sen
Delaware	8:00pm
Florida (Panhandle)	8:00pm	FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-24, FL-Gov
Illinois	8:00pm	IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-Gov
Kansas	8:00pm	KS-02
Maine	8:00pm	ME-Gov
Maryland	8:00pm	MD-Gov, MD-Sen
Massachusetts	8:00pm	MA-Gov
Michigan (Most of state)	8:00pm	MI-Gov, MI-Sen
Mississippi	8:00pm
Missouri	8:00pm	MO-Sen
New Hampshire (Cities)	8:00pm	NH-01, NH-02
New Jersey	8:00pm	NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-Sen
Oklahoma	8:00pm
Pennsylvania	8:00pm	PA-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-Gov, PA-Sen
South Dakota (Eastern)	8:00pm	SD-Gov
Tennessee	8:00pm	TN-Sen
Texas (Eastern)	8:00pm	TX-14, TX-17, TX-23, TX-32, TX-Gov
Arkansas	8:30pm	AR-Gov
North Carolina (Optional)	8:30pm	NC-08, NC-11, NC-13
Arizona	9:00pm	AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, AZ-Sen
Colorado	9:00pm	CO-04, CO-05, CO-07, CO-Gov
Louisiana	9:00pm	LA-02, LA-03
Michigan (Western U.P.)	9:00pm	MI-Gov, MI-Sen
Minnesota	9:00pm	MN-01, MN-02, MN-06, MN-Gov, MN-Sen
Nebraska	9:00pm	NE-01, NE-03
New Mexico	9:00pm	NM-01
New York	9:00pm	NY-03, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NY-Gov
Rhode Island	9:00pm	RI-Gov, RI-Sen
South Dakota (Western)	9:00pm	SD-Gov
Texas (Western)	9:00pm	TX-14, TX-17, TX-21, TX-23, TX-32, TX-Gov
Wisconsin	9:00pm	WI-08, WI-Gov
Wyoming	9:00pm	WY-AL
Idaho (Southern)	10:00pm	ID-01, ID-Gov
Iowa	10:00pm	IA-01 , IA-02, IA-04, IA-Gov
Montana	10:00pm	MT-Sen
Nevada	10:00pm	NV-02, NV-03, NV-Gov, NV-Sen
North Dakota (Eastern)	10:00pm
Oregon (Western)	10:00pm	OR-Gov
Utah	10:00pm
California	11:00pm	CA-04, CA-11, CA-50, CA-Gov
Hawaii	11:00pm
Idaho (Panhandle)	11:00pm	ID-01, ID-Gov
North Dakota (Western)	11:00pm
Oregon (Eastern)	11:00pm	OR-Gov
Washington	11:00pm	WA-05, WA-08, WA-Sen
Alaska (Mainland)	12:00am	AK-Gov
Alaska (Western Aleutians)	1:00am	AK-Gov

All times are Eastern. Please note that some states are split across two time zones and consequently have two different poll closing times. I’ve split the affected states up accordingly, which is why there are more than 50 listings.

Also, we haven’t tried to list every single possible race here, just those that we (James & I) feel are potentially interesting. As I say, we’ve confined ourselves just to Congress and the statehouses. Here are some other resources you might want to consult:

• For important Secretary of State races, check out the Secretary of State Project.

• To get a sense of which state legislatures are up for grabs, take a look at this chart from the DLCC (PDF).

• And for a complete list of ballot measures nationwide, this guide from the I & R Institute (PDF) is the definitive source.

If there are any worthy races you’re following that aren’t on this list, please post them in comments, preferably with a link to a site that will be posting the results. (You usually can’t find returns for smaller local races on CNN.) Also, if you notice any errors, please let us know as well.

(Special thanks to the Green Papers, which was the source for all the poll closing times.)

As you may know, there are few things as important in the final four days of a campaign than contacting voters personally and encouraging them to come out to the polls.  And that’s why Moveon.org is an incredibly important piece of machinery for grassroots Democrats to use this weekend.  Moveon.org has set up a simple yet innovative program that has identified millions of “drop off” Democratic voters in close races around the country–these are voters who typically vote Democratic in Presidential elections, but are unmotivated to go to the polls in midterm election years. 

The program has already made 4 million calls to such voters, and Moveon hopes to boost that total by another half million over this weekend.  In 1994, many races were won by Republicans by very thin margins with the help of a depressed Democratic base.  Let’s turn the tables and excite as many Democrats as possible this weekend.  Can you commit to an hour or more of phonebanking for Moveon.org this weekend?  Can you attend or host a Rock The House (and Senate) Phone Party this weekend or on election day?

It’s easy, it’s fun, the interface is people-friendly, and you’ll be calling Democrats (not conservative independents who may chew your head off).  Even Al Gore approves.  Best of all, you just might help tip the scales in a tight race this cycle.

Call For Change today.

Do you know anyone in Connecticut?  Anyone at all?  If you do, please consider taking part in Ned’s Family, Friends & Neighbors program.  It’s an incredibly easy and incredibly effective voter contact tool, because its power rests in the strength of your personal connections and your own ability to persuade your friends.  Tonight at 11:00 pm EDT is your last chance to send a postcard to someone you know in Connecticut to encourage them to vote for Ned Lamont using this tool.  Remember: in 1988, Lowell Weicker was still ahead by 6 points around this time.  You never know what could happen.  Please urge everyone you know in Connecticut to head out to the polls and support Ned Lamont on Tuesday.

Pinch me, I think I’m dreaming (likely voters, Oct. 16-18 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D): 52 (48)

Anne Northup (R): 44 (47)

MoE: ±4%

Amazing.  Northup has held back strong Democratic challengers for a decade in this Louisville district that leans Democratic (she most recently scored 60% of the vote in 2004), and many prognosticators were quick to write off Yarmuth’s chances, figuring that his resume of being an alt-weekly publisher would be an easy target for Northup to pummel.  But by all indications, Yarmuth has run a scrappy, smart campaign and has been tightening the contest over the last two months.  If he can do what other Democrats have failed to do in cycles past, November 7 is going to be a big night.

link

In the secretary of state race, nearly half, or 48 percent, of overall respondents said they would vote for Democratic candidate Michael Mauro and 42 percent said they would vote for Mary Ann Hanusa.

My rating for Iowa SOS: Leans Democratic

Governor, House district 3, and generic below the flip.

poll data

MOE: +/-4%

Governor:

Culver (D): 50

Nussle (R): 45

(Culver leads 51-44 with independents)

My rating: Leans Democratic

Generic congressional ballot:

Democrats: 55

Republicans: 42

This probably means we’re going to control both houses of the Iowa state legislature, where the margin needed for control of both houses is just one seat. My rating for IA-State Senate, IA-State Assembly: Leans Democratic

IA-3 (MOE +/- 5%):

Boswell (D): 53

Lamberti (R): 41

Boswell leads among independents 58-39. My rating: Democrat Favored.

Haven’t seen any House polls yet today, but www.pollster.com shows a premium Rasmussen poll with O’Malley (D) leading Governor Ehrlich (R) 49-48. As usual with premium reports that have yet to be published to the general audience, there’s no MOE or any further details yet. Clearly, though, Ehrlich is generating a lot of momentum in the final week. Seeing as how this result corroborates the Baltimore Sun poll from the other day, I’d say it’s safe to place this race firmly in the Tossup column. Let’s hope Ehrlich’s momentum doesn’t continue.

Poll below the flip – predict the outcome.

Crossposted from Burnt Orange Report but it is a poll and the SSP diaries need some content!

This poll was taken Monday night of a random sample of 230 UT students, unweighted. It has a 5.4% MoE @ 90% confidence.

46.5% Bell (D)

18.3% Friedman (I)

16.5% Perry (R) 

10.0% Strayhorn (I) 

04.3% Werner (L) 

04.0% Undecided

If the heart of the supposed hotbed of Kinky Friedman support has this pathetic of a showing, what more evidence do people need to show that Chris Bell is the only viable candidate to beat Rick Perry?

Turnout at the on campus UT early voting site hit a high today of 626 votes even as the county remained static from yesterday. Looks like my autocall to students yesterday and other GOTV phone calls are making an impact.

Highlights from Wednesday’s independent expenditures:

• I hope you weren’t gullible enough to buy the NRCC disinformation campaign that they were abandoning the campaigns of Curt Weldon (PA-07) and Joy Padgett (OH-18).  On the contrary, they haven’t given up.  The NRCC spent nearly $650,000 smearing Joe Sestak and $230,000 attacking Zack Space today.  Does that sound like “retreat” to you?

• Notable DCCC buys: $673k in AZ-05, both attacking Hayworth and supporting Harry Mitchell; $100k in CA-11 supporting McNerney and attacking Pombo; $530k in CO-07 supporting Ed Perlmutter and attacking Rick O’Donnell (we actually figured this one was locked up); $500k in CT-02 against Rob Simmons and for Joe Courtney; $472k in CT-05 against Nancy Johnson and for Chris Murphy; $628k in FL-22 attacking Clay Shaw; $1.3 million in IL-06 against Peter Roskam and for Tammy Duckworth (holy hell); $550k against David McSweeney in IL-08; $1.2 million in IN-09 against Mike Sodrel and for Baron Hill; $320k for KY-03 against Ann Northup; $720k in KY-04 against Geoff Davis; $123k in MN-01 for Tim Walz and against Gil Gutknecht; $400k in MN-06 against Michele Bachmann; $110k in NE-03 against Adrian Smith; $426k in NM-01 against Heather Wilson; $308k in NV-03 against Jon Porter and for Tessa Hafen; $426k in NY-24 for Mike Arcuri and against Raymond Meier; $226k in NY-26 against NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds; $375k in OH-01 against Steve Chabot; $366k in OH-15 against Deborah Pryce; $640k in OH-18 against Joy Padgett; $250k in PA-04 against Melissa Hart and for Jason Altmire; $276k in VA-02 against Thelma Drake; $124k in WA-05 against Cathy McMorris; $640k in WA-08 against Dave Reichert.

• The NRCC has followed the DCCC into KS-02.  As a response to the surprise $650,000 dropped by the DCCC in this district earlier this week, they’ve placed a $220k ad buy against Boyda, which is a signal that the DCCC’s incursion was worth it.  Similarly, following the DCCC’s recent expansion into KY-03 on behalf of John Yarmuth, the NRCC has put up $200k into this district today.  They’re also putting up $350k attacking Dan Maffei in NY-25.

• ID-01: The Club For Growth is pumping an emergency $260k into this district to defend their golden boy, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali, who just may prove to be the only unelectable Republican in Idaho.