Tag: Fundraising

I almost wonder why we put this chart together, given that Citizens United means they can moneynuke our candidates all the live long day.

Highlights:

• Incumbent Dems outraised by GOPer: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), John Salazar (CO-03), Jim Himes (CT-04), Ron Klein (FL-22), Jim Marshall (GA-08), Phil Hare (IL-17), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Baron Hill (IN-09), Ben Chandler (KY-06), John Tierney (MA-06), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Gary Peters (MI-09), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Travis Childers (MS-01), Gene Taylor (MS-04), Bobby Etheridge (NC-02), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), Harry Teague (NM-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Pete DeFazio (OR-04), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Chris Carney (PA-10), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Ciro D. Rodriguez (TX-23), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Steve Kagen (WI-08), Nick Rahall (WV-03)
• Incumbent GOPer outraised by Dem: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Jo Ann Emerson (MO-08), Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dave Reichert (WA-08)
• Incumbent Dems with less CoH than GOPer: Jim Costa (CA-20), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Ron Klein (FL-22), Phil Hare (IL-17), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Russ Carnahan (MO-03), Harry Teague (NM-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), John Hall (NY-19), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Ciro D. Rodriguez (TX-23)
• Incumbent GOPer with less CoH than Dem: NONE
• GOPer outraising Dem for a Dem open seat: Tim Griffin (AR-02), Larry Bucshon (IN-08), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Jeff Landry (LA-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Steve Fincher (TN-08), Jaime Herrera (WA-03)
• Dem outraising GOPer for a GOP open seat: John Carney (DE-AL), Joe Garcia (FL-25)
• GOPer with more CoH for a Dem open seat: Mo Brooks (AL-05), Rick Crawford (AR-01), Tim Griffin (AR-02), Larry Bucshon (IN-08), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Daniel Benishek (MI-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), Tom Reed (NY-29), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Jaime Herrera (WA-03), Sean Duffy (WI-07), David McKinley (WV-01)
• Dem with more CoH for a GOP open seat: John Carney (DE-AL)

Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that Parker Griffith is a Republican now, and that were Steve Raby to win, this would technically be a pickup of a GOP open seat. Dick Muri in WA-09 is also included instead of James Postma.

The full chart:

If I were a rich man…. Here are the August fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (July numbers are here):

Someday I’ll have me a penthouse, stacks and stacks of folding green… Here are the July fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (June numbers are here):

Fundraising in the cycle before an election can give us signs of who is thinking about retirement or who is planning for a tough re-election. Looking through 2009-2010 FEC reports for 2012 Senate candidates contains some surprises about incumbents assumed to be likely 2012 retirements, such as Dianne Feinstein and Ben Nelson. Below you can find the fundraising, cash on hand, and debt of every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2012, with the exception of Kirsten Gillibrand, who first has to win a 2010 election and West Virginia, where we do not know who the incumbent will be.

I will arrange it by the amount (least to greatest) that the Senator has raised this cycle:

Senator- Raised this cycle- Cash on Hand- Debt

(D-HI)Daniel Akaka- $19,000- $78,050- $0

(R-TX)Kay Bailey Hutchison- $77,788- $50,628- $0

(I-CT)Joe Lieberman- $81,721- $1,261,561- $0

(D-NM)Jeff Binjaman- $147,146- $366,018- $0

(D-WI)Herb Kohl*- $198,207- $15,549- $0

(I-VT)Bernie Sanders- $259,622- $141,661- $0

(R-WY)John Barrasso- $384,215- $554,739- $0

(R-ME)Olympia Snowe- $407,009- $1,085,714- $0

(R-NV)John Ensign- $444,161- $961,247- $0

(R-IN)Dick Lugar- $464,852- $2,350,060- $0

(R-AZ)Jon Kyl- $562,490- $600,327- $0

(D-MD)Ben Cardin- $613,752- $379,594- $0

(D-ND)Kent Conrad- $616,187- $1,905,346- $0

(D-VA)Jim Webb- $688,356- $509,959- $0

(D-DE)Tom Carper- $734,118- $935,791- $0

(D-MT)Jon Tester- $844,975- $500,768- $0

(D-RI)Sheldon Whitehouse- $855,136- $589,527- $0

(R-MS)Roger Wicker- $919,844- $401,796- $0

(D-MO)Claire McCaskill- $1,087,857- $793,586- $0

(D-WA)Maria Cantwell*- $1,111,117- $316,029- $2,180,161

(D-NE)Ben Nelson- $1,218,005- $1,180,852- $0

(R-UT)Orrin Hatch- $1,286,657- $2,300,247- $0

(D-MN)Amy Klobuchar- $1,351,502- $1,307,076- $0

(D-PA)Bob Casey- $1,379,122- $876,815- $0

(R-TN)Bob Corker- $1,406,025- $$796,477- $0

(D-CA)Dianne Feinstein- $1,492,719- $3,641,409- $0

(D-OH)Sherrod Brown- $1,695,542- $1,442,660- $0

(D-FL)Bill Nelson- $1,736,308- $2,712,340- $0

(D-MI)Debbie Stabenow- $1,880,157- $$1,407,087- $8,303

(D-NJ)Bob Menendez- $2,207,492- $2,036,673- $0

(R-MA)Scott Brown- $17,005,388- $6,034,498- $158,513

*Ability and willingness to self-fund

Scott Brown raised a huge amount of money in the run up to the MA special election, so much that he couldn’t spend it all. He had about 5 million left over immediately after the election, and has added an addition million to his campaign account since then. He heads into 2011 with the largest bank account of any senator up for re-election in 2012, other than Gillibrand, who has an election this year.

Incumbents Ben Nelson, Dianne Feinstein, Orrin Hatch, Tom Carper, and Olympia Snowe, all retirement possibilities in 2012, have raised decent amounts of money for their campaigns so far. Senators Daniel Akaka, Jeff Binjaman, Joe Lieberman, and Kay Bailey Hutchison, all retirement possibilities, are not raising much money. Hutchison has already announced her retirement, but she also announced her resignation two years ago. Dick Lugar and John Ensign, both considered very likely retirements, are still raising money. Herb Kohl is also considered a potential retirement in 2012, but it is difficult to tell from his fundraising reports, since he self-funds all of his bids.  

   Quarterly fundraising reports are not enough for me.  I want to know how much a candidate is raising on a monthly basis.  Now that ActBlue commands a dominant share of Democratic fundraising, it is now possible to predict how much a candidate is raising before they file a quarterly report.  Here is my favorite Senate candidate, Joe Sestak, as an example.

Quarter #      ActBlue    Overall Report  %ActBlue

4, 2009        $242,000    $650,000        37.2

1, 2010        $200,000    $442,000        45.2

2, 2010        $665,000    $1,950,000      34.1

July 2010      $469,000    TBD             TBD

 Joe Sestak uses ActBlue on his campaign website to take online donations.  As a result, the % of money raised via ActBlue is surprisingly stable across quarters.  From this pattern, I can deduce that Sestak has raised $1.1-1.4 million in July (OK, and the first 2 days of August).  To take it further, I expect Sestak will raise $3-4 million this quarter.  Past performance is not a perfect predictor of the future, but the ActBlue info gives me evidence enough that Sestak is still a strong fundraiser.  Sestak will need all that money if he is going to beat Pat Toomey the Club for Growth.

 

CT-Sen: I thought it was pretty weird that alleged non-candidate Rob Simmons was going to participate in a GOP debate last night. Well, he un-weirded things (I guess) by declaring at this debate that he is “running for the United States Senate.” We’ll see if it sticks. The primary, by the way, is August 10th.

KS-Sen: Not something you see every day: Rep. Jerry Moran’s former campaign manager, who claims he was pushed out in April, has endorsed rival Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Paul Moore said he thinks Moran, who has led in every single public poll, is not “instinctively conservative.”

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll has Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 44-37. It’s been a really long time since Civitas looked at this race; in December of last year, they found Burr up 40-32.

WA-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS will headline a fundraiser for Sen. Patty Murray on August 17th in Seattle.

FL-Gov: McLaughlin & Associates supposedly has yet another poll out, but not for their client Bill McCollum. Apparently, they did double duty for the Florida Medical Association, and – surprise – found Rick Scott leading McCollum 37-33. This seems like a pretty colossal waste of money, since McCollum’s internal – released just the other day – had him down 37-31.

Meanwhile, McCollum had to deal with a small brush fire: former Florida House Speaker Alan Bense held a private meeting with Rick Scott over the weekend. The problem is that Bense is supposed to be a McCollum supporter – something he re-iterated after his soiree, saying he only got together with Scott to be polite. Bense is also the chairman-elect of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and his group is expected to get behind Billy Mac. And in case anyone still cares what unlovable loser Gary Bauer thinks, he endorsed McCollum.

KS-Gov: Dem state Sen. Tom Holland raised $283K from Jan. 1 to July 22nd and has $103K on hand. His Republican opponent, Sen. Sam Brownback, took in $519K and has $1.2 million in the bank. Note, though, that Holland’s fundraising mostly took place after the legislative session ended in June (there are strict regulations on fundraising while the lege is in operation), while Brownback was free to raise from all sources throughout the reporting period. Brownback’s been spending his time well, mind you: He just introduced legislation which would ban the creation of “part-human, part-animal creatures.” Sadly, this would mean no manticores, minotaurs, or mermaids. And I was really looking forward to embracing our brave new Greek mythology future.

MN-Gov: Glad to see that Citizens United is proving to be a two-edged sword. Target has donated $150,000 to a right-wing group called MN Forward, which is running TV ads on behalf of extremist Republican nominee Tom Emmer. Gay groups in particular are incensed, since Target had been known as a gay-friendly employer, even going so far as to support the Twin Cities Gay Pride Festival. And speaking for myself, Target can get fucked – as can Best Buy and any other corporation which uses corporate money to help elect Republicans. Not shopping at either location anymore, that’s for sure.

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is launching his first TV ad of the cycle, a spot about property taxes. Of course, NWOTSOTB, or whether it’s cable or broadcast, or even where it’s airing. Sigh.

OH-Gov: Obama alert 2! The day after the POTUS appears in WA (see bullet above), he’ll be doing a fundraiser for Ted Strickland in Columbus.

OR-Gov: We haven’t done writeups of our most recent batch of race ratings yet, but Carla Axtman of Blue Oregon has a nice writeup of an interview she did with Crisitunity at Netroots Nation, where he explains our decision to move OR-Gov from Likely D to Tossup.

RI-Gov: Linc Chafee is doing his best to out-do Martha Coakley when it comes to alienating Red Sox Nation (a broad constituency throughout New England). While criticizing state loan guarantees to a video game company owned by Schilling, he also decided to question whether Schilling’s famous “bloody sock” game was legit. Already Chafee’s tried to walk back the remark – but there are no do-overs in baseball. Or politics.

GA-02: Dem Rep. Sanford Bishop, in a competitive race with Republican Mike Keown (who oh-so-narrowly outraised the incumbent last quarter), formally kicked off his campaign yesterday with a newly-famous Georgian at his side: Shirley Sherrod, with whom you are most certainly familiar by now. Even though this district is almost 48% black, it’s also extremely competitive politically, going 54% for Obama and 50% for Kerry.

KS-01: SurveyUSA has one final look at the open-seat GOP primary in KS-01, finding a three-way tie between state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. All pull 24%. Last time, it was 23-20-18.

MA-09: Bubba alert! Bill Clinton is doing a fundraiser and rally this Thursday for conservadem and anti-healthcare reform asshole Stephen Lynch. Lynch faces a primary from Mac D’Alessandro and has a monster cash advantage ($1.3 million to just $72K), so this surely seems like overkill to me – but of course, the Big Dog loves to pay back favors, and Lynch was (you guessed it) a Hillary supporter in 2008.

NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon, seeking to avoid a primary on the Independence Party line, is challenging the petitions of third-party irritant John Tabacco. Tabacco needs only 497 valid signatures, but New York has absurdly stringent rules which make it very easy to knock “bad” sigs out. Therefore, the common rule of thumb is that you need to submit at least twice as many petitions as the law requires, and Tabacco only provided 678. Therefore, I’m going to guess that McMahon – who is highly motivated here – will succeed in his challenges. Tabacco has some more problems to worry about, though – after giving a loan to the wife of the chair of the state Independence Party last year, he suddenly got their ballot line in a city council race (funnily enough, for the seat vacated by McMahon).

NY-15: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is dipping a toe into new waters, suggesting that resignation is an option for Charlie Rangel. So is fighting the charges, Hoyer says, but a ringing endorsement of the embattled former Ways and Means chair this is not. Meanwhile, Walt Minnick isn’t playing footsie, becoming the second Dem (after OH-13’s Betty Sutton) to call on Rangel to quit the House.

Rangel is still in talks with the ethics committee to try to reach some sort of plea bargain, but it seems that he’s unwilling to cop to a sufficiently broad array of violations to satisfy the committee members. If Rangel can’t come to terms, he’d face a “public hearing” (essentially a trial). As the New York Times points out, the last time this happened was in 2002, when Jim Traficant was expelled from the House.

PA-07: Teabagger Jim Schneller, hoping to appear on the ballot as an independent, says he’s gathered 5,200 signatures so far – a thousand more than the 4,200 he needs to submit by August 2nd. It remains to be seen if Republican Pat Meehan will try to challenge Schneller’s bid.

TN-03: Politico has a piece documenting the wingnut-on-wingnut violence stemming from the fight to replace outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp in this dark-red seat. The battle is between attorney Chuck Fleischmann and former state GOP chair Robin Smith.

Fundraising: A rare day: two Steny Hoyer mentions in one digest. The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck, and the undeserving Larry Kissell. Hoyer, like Nancy Pelosi, got where he is because lots and lots of people owe him – and will continue to owe him. Let this be a lesson to aspiring progressive leaders in Congress.

We’ve been a little slow in getting this out over at the Lexington Avenue office of SSP Quarterly, but thanks to the heroic efforts of Contributing Editor Jeffmd, who compiled something in the ballpark of 85% of these numbers with his own bare hands, we now have our full spreadsheet of noteworthy 2Q House fundraising numbers for you to enjoy.

A few notes:

• Democratic challengers who outraised Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (CA-03), Steve Pougnet (CA-45)
• Republican challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: David Harmer (CA-11), Allen West (FL-22), Mike Keown (GA-02), Austin Scott (GA-08), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Jackie Walorski (IN-02), Todd Young (IN-09), Todd Lally (KY-03), Andy Barr (KY-06), Rocky Raczkowski (MI-09), Alan Nunnelee (MS-01), Ilario Pantano (NC-07), Harold Johnson (NC-08), Steve Pearce (NM-02), Chris Gibson (NY-20), Steve Chabot (OH-01), Bill Johnson (OH-06), Steve Stivers (OH-15), Jim Renacci (OH-16), Lou Barletta (PA-11), Tim Burns (PA-12), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Bill Flores (TX-17), Quico Canseco (TX-23), Scott Rigell (VA-02), Morgan Griffith (VA-09), Dan Kapanke (WI-03)
• Democratic challengers with more cash-on-hand than Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (CA-03), Suzan Delbene (WA-08)

• Republican challengers with more cash-on-hand than Democratic incumbents: Randy Altschuler (NY-01), Nan Hayworth (NY-19), Matt Doheny (NY-23), Steve Chabot (OH-01), Tom Ganley (OH-13), Steve Stivers (OH-15)
  

There’s a tuppeny hapenny millionaire – looking for a fourpenny one. Here are the June fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (May numbers are here):

Just a quick note on the Dem vs. GOP cash disparities: In March, it was $21.5 mil, then $18.6 mil, then $18.0 mil, and now it’s down to $16.1 mil $18.1 mil.

UPDATE: I made a mistake and misreported the cash-on-hand totals for both the DSCC and NRSC. Both sets of numbers were in fact higher than I reported, the DSCC moreso than the NRSC, meaning the Dems added more net cash overall.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nothing like collateral damage on the campaign trail. Mark Kirk has been trying to make a weird issue out of the fact that Alexi Giannoulias didn’t pay any income taxes last year. It’s weird because Giannoulias lost millions of dollars last year, and it would be a little hard to tax a negative number. But it’s also been a foolhardy crusade, because Kirk’s ticket-mate, gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady, is in the exact same position as Giannoulias – and so Kirk was compelled to criticize his fellow Republican as well, for a total non-issue. D’oh!

Meanwhile, Giannoulias fired back with a hit of his own, attacking Mark Kirk for pulling a Kasich and refusing to release his tax returns. But wait, there’s more! Kirk’s also been busy pulling yet another Kirk, too:

Also during Kirk’s news conference, the congressman would not discuss the latest question about his military career, this time from a statement he made in a Sun-Times questionnaire that he was “shot at” while serving with a Dutch armor unit in Kandahar.

IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth is out with his first ad of the campaign. As always, NWOTSOTB (that’s “No Word On The Size Of The Buy” in English – get used to seeing that around here).

OH-Sen: Cap-and-trade has proven to be perilous territory for more than one Republican candidate this cycle, with flip-flops as persistent as vuvuzela blasts at a World Cup match. That’s because trading emissions credits had long been one of those rare non-insane Republican ideas that a lot of Republicans had cottoned to. But because Dems have embraced the idea, too, it’s now political poison in GOP circles. So, no surprise to see Rob Portman blasting cap-and-trade a “job killer” – and then getting instantly hammered by Dems for having supported it during his career in Congress. Whoops!

GA-Gov: Dem Roy Barnes is out with a new ad whaling on the idiocy regularly perpetrated by Republicans in the state legislature – like attempting to ban stem cell research, passing bills “about microchips in the brain,” and talking about seceding from the union – which he says makes it hard to recruit jobs to the state. NWOTSOTB.

HI-Gov: Outgoing Gov. Linda Lingle (R) vetoed a civil unions bill yesterday, her final day to do so. Whether this becomes a potent issue on the campaign trail remains to be seen, but at least two of the big three candidates in the race have come out with statements on Lingle’s action: Neil Abercrombie (he’s for civil unions) and Duke Aiona (he’s against them).

FL-25: GOP state Rep. David Rivera, a hardline extremist when it comes to supporting the Cuban embargo, has taken some heat for his alleged friendship with businessman Ariel Pereda. Pereda has been an active proponent of trade with Cuba, and Rivera has denied that the two have a relationship. But Mariana Cancio, another Republican candidate, posted a video of Pereda standing behind Rivera at Rivera’s campaign kick-off.

IN-09: Republican Todd Young has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (feel like I’ve been seeing that name a lot) which shows him trailing Baron Hill by 41-34. Note that the poll had just 300 respondents. (When you click the link, scroll all the way to the bottom for the poll press release.)

LA-03: In a bit of a throwaway sentence in a bigger article about the start of the candidate qualifying period in Louisiana, the Times-Picayune notes that Dems are still trying to recruit interim Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle to run for Rep. Charlie Melancon’s open House seat.

LA-05: Teabagging businessman (but I’m guessing Some Dude) Todd Slavant is planning to challenge notorious Democrat-cum-Republican turncoat Rodney Alexander in the GOP primary. I tend to doubt that Alexander will meet with Parker Griffith’s fate, though.

MO-08: Dem Tommy Sowers is out with his first ad, a semi-biographical spot which features his “combat bible.” NWOTSOTB.

MT-AL: This is a weird echo of something in the not-too-distant past of Montana’s political world. Denny Rehberg is suing the Billings fire department for allegedly failing to contain a fire that occurred on his property almost exactly two years ago. The fire chief is saying that saving, you know, lives is their number one priority (none were lost) – and pointing out that the folks who worked to put out the blaze had given up their holiday weekend. Oh, and that odd rhyme? Folks with keen memories will recall that former Montana Sen. Conrad Burns went out of his way to insult bone-weary firefighters to their faces who had schlepped all the way from Virginia to put out blazes back in 2006.

Iowa: Ugh: Iowa SoS Michael Mauro reports that the 100,000 voter registration edge Democrats held in the Hawkeye State just six months ago has been cut in half. However, Mauro points out that the Dems had a 40K deficit in 2002 and yet both Sen. Tom Harkin and then-Gov. Tom Vilsack won re-election.

Maryland: Candidate filing closed in Maryland yesterday. Click the link for a full list of candidates. Incidentally, only five states still have open filing periods: LA, WI, NY, HI, and DE, which brings up the rear with a July 30th deadline.

Fundraising: Reid Wilson has a few fundraising nums we haven’t seen before, including figures from AL-07, LA-03, and MA-10. Shelia Smoot’s weak haul in AL-07 is disappointing but not surprising.

IL-Sen: That’s some good money for a nursery school teacher: Mark Kirk raised $2.3 million in the second quarter and has $3.9 million on hand. But don’t bust out the milk and cookies just yet: Reid Wilson points out that Kirk has raised $9 million to date, meaning he’s burned through $5 million already, despite having had a pretty easy primary.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul took in $1.1 million in Q2, but didn’t release cash-on-hand figures. Nothing from Jack Conway yet.

GA-Gov: Ah, this is the kind of thing every lawyer dreads: being called on the carpet by a judge you’re litigating in front of. It’s a little worse when it comes out on the campaign trail during your gubernatorial run, but GOP Ins. Comm’r John Oxendine is just going to have to take his lumps for this:

The transcript of McConnell’s comments read, “If I knew I could suspend you from practicing law in the state of Georgia for the rest of your life I would do so. You’re an abomination as far as I’m concerned.”

AL-02: John McArdle reminds us that pre-primary reports are available in Alabama, where there’s one interesting federal runoff between Martha Roby and Rick “The Barber” Barber. Roby raised $100K from May 13 to June 23 and has a similar amount left on hand, while Barber took in only $50K and has about half that in the bank. The runoff is on July 13th. Remember, you can find our sortable primary calendar here.

CA-37: The House Ethics Committee cleared Rep. Laura Richardson of any wrongdoing in connection with allegations that Washington Mutual gave her an improper benefit with regard to her mortgage on a home that the bank had repossessed but later returned to Richardson. However, Richardson has a history of problems with home payments, with the LA Times noting she’s defaulted on three homes. I wouldn’t be surprised if she faced a primary challenge at some point soon.

ID-01: Remember a little while back when Mike Simpson was claiming that Walt Minnick was ready to be part of a Blue Dog revolution that would displace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker if Dems only narrowly controlled the House in 2011? Well, he admitted yesterday that his idea was about as legit as BPGlobalPR, saying that he’s “just lobbing hand grenades.” More like spitballs.

Fundraising: Given all the fundraising bullets above, it’s obviously FEC report season again. Reid Wilson has a bunch more numbers we haven’t reported here – LA-Sen, ND-AL, and NH-02. Meanwhile, Steve Singiser unearths some numbers for RI-Gov. Follow the links and enjoy!