Tag: Pete Domenici

Cross Posted at MyDD.Com and OpenLeft.Com

The word in New Mexico circles is that despite his announcement, Congressman Udall is still being urged to run for the Senate. If  “Udall for Senate” gives you the same kind butterflies in your stomach as it gives me, please help urge him to run! Send Tom Udall the message that we want him as our next Senator by sending a small, $5 contribution to his campaign.

It seems like whoever you talk to in Washington and most importantly, in New Mexico, people agree that Tom Udall is our hero candidate. Obviously he needs to step up and run.

A move to run after announcing otherwise is not without precedent and you don't hear anyone complaining about the last guy who did it. In August of 2005, now Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he would not run against former-Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio. For the next two months, the grassroots urged him to reconsider his decision for the people of Ohio and for people across the nation. He eventually reversed his decision and went on to win the seat for Democrats, helping to give us control of the US Senate.

We need to send Congressman Udall that same message (here's another chance to donate that $5!). The people of New Mexico want him to run and people in Washington and across the United States hope that he'll help us to increase our majority in the Senate by turning Senator Domenici's seat blue!

Tom Udall is the best choice for New Mexico AND for the country as we work towards building the Democratic majority in the Senate. I already wrote a bit about his background, including a bit about his family and his cash on hand that he could use for his Senate campaign committee. But there are other, better reasons for Tom Udall to be the next Senator from New Mexico.

For one, he's a good progressive. He's pro-choice, an environmentalist, a defender of civil liberties and civil rights, and one of the great supporters for veterans in the Democratic Party today. In fact, during his time as a minority member in the Congress, he took the junior seat on the Veteran's Committee in addition to his regular committee portfolio.

In the first polling out about the race in New Mexico, Tom Udall beats both Republicans by 18 points! Governor Richardson is the only other New Mexican who polls as high. Representative Udall could afford to leave his safe seat in the north with these kinds of numbers, run hard for the Senate, and win. He could leave his House seat knowing that another Democrat (and there are many) could easily keep it in Dem control.

In terms of numbers, this just makes sense. Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Congressman Steve Pearce (R) are the two leading contenders to replace Senator Domenici on the Republican side (Pearce has formed an exploratory committee and will announce his intentions in the next two weeks, while Wilson declared less than 24 hours after Domenici's announcement and after weeks of traveling statewide). The numbers tell us that both beat current Dem candidates Chavez and Wiviott by small-to-wide margins. The following summary of the numbers comes from the Democracy For New Mexico blog.

 

Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District:
*    Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points
*    loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points
*    defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points
*    defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points
*    and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points.
Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District:
*    Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce),
*    loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce),
*    defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce),
*    effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce)
*    and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce).

 

Someone needs to put these numbers on the Congressman's desk and tell him that it's time to run.

We know that Udall's numbers aren't fluff, either. He's run statewide before and won as Attorney General, twice! Since then, Udall has remained a proud defender of the Constitution and our rights. He was one of the original 66 Members of Congress to stand up with courage against the PATRIOT Act that was first railroaded through the House, forcing most Representatives to vote on a bill they had never read.

This is the kind of leadership and courage we should demand from our leaders and a primary reason why New Mexicans are asking Tom Udall to run for Senate.

Congressman Udall's voting record is solidly progressive. Help in the movement to Draft Tom Udall for Senate today by sending him $5 and the message that he's our best hope!

In an ABQJournal opinion piece by Michael Coleman, Sen. Pete Domenici is compared to someone he would rather have no connection to — Sen. Larry Craig from Idaho.

Craig, as you may know, is the Idaho Republican arrested on June 11 by an airport police officer and pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct. Craig, according to police, used “a signal used by persons wishing to engage in lewd conduct” while in a men’s airport bathroom according to the police report. You can read the full police report here. Craig has since said he would like to rescind his guilty plea.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

So what does Craig have to do with Domenici?  Coleman lists how they are politically similar; both conservative Republicans.  Both supported the “dangerous and irresponsible” Yucca Mountain bill.  And both are supporters of President Bush.  Oh yeah, and “they’ve each hired a defense attorney to help absolve them of separate problems with the Senate Ethics Committee.”

This is a comparison Domenici — and any politician — will do anything to avoid.  He did himself no favors among the Republican base when he urged restraint in late August and asked Republican lawmakers to not rush to kick Craig out of the Senate.

“We cannot rush to judgment here,” Domenici said in a statement provided to the Journal. “The action being taken by the Senate Republican leadership is a good first step toward getting the facts. It’s important that we allow the legal process to run its course and the Senate Ethics Committee to conduct a thorough and fair investigation.”

Of course, the legal process did run its course; Craig pleaded guilty to the offense.  It is no surprise Domenici wants to drawn-out Senate Ethics Committee process to run its course as well — Domenici is under preliminary investigation by that same committee for his improper (though improper in a much different way than Craig’s actions) phone calls to David Iglesias.

This was bad timing for Domenici.

A day later, CNN and other news outlets released a tape of Craig’s interrogation by police after his arrest. In an effort to distance himself from Craig, his guilty plea and that squirmingly uncomfortable interrogation tape, Domenici- who is up for re-election- quickly announced that he would shed $2,500 in campaign cash given to him by Craig’s political action committee.

Oops.

Even more troublesome for Domenici, when the various Republican scandals are listed (you can see a selection of them here), Domenici’s name is in the same list as Craig and Ted Stevens.  Not exactly a distinguished list.

It seems that Pete Domenici and Heather Wilson are now both in trouble from both sides of the political spectrum. While the two toers-of-the-GOP-party-line generally don’t expect support from the progressive Dems, when the hawkish Republicans go after them… then they know they’re in trouble.

And this group is spending some serious cash on the two New Mexico Republicans.  According to a list e-mailed from Americans United for Change, reprinted at Daily Kos, the group is spending over $250,000 on these ads targeting Wilson and Domenici.  This is the fourth-most being spent in a single area, remarkable considering two of the other targets are in Philadelphia, PA and Washington DC — much more expensive media markets.  This group really is going after Domenici and Wilson.

I won’t get into the problems with the right-wing ad itself — I’ll let Americans United for Change do that, in a video you can see below the fold, but instead discuss its effects on Domenici and Wilson.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

The funny thing about the attack from a group of Bush supporters is it is based on, for Domenici and Wilson at least, what they have said in the press.  Not on what they have actually done, but what they’ve said.  They’ve talked about a new direction in Iraq, they’ve publicly tried to soften their position on Iraq… but then their actions, their votes, betray them.

Take a look at Domenici on “War and Peace”.  Every single time he has voted on a bill concerning the war in Iraq, he has gone with the hawkish “stay the course” message.  He even was among the majority who voted to protect the Halliburtons of the world by voting “NO on investigating contract awards in Iraq & Afghanistan.”  In other words, Domenici was not only for no-bid contracts, he was also for not investigating the waste of money afterwards.  Not exactly fiscally conservative, is he?

It’s no surprise to anyone with any knowledge of Domenici’s past that he is so hawkish.  But it is a bit ironic that the right-wing group

(Having a former US Attorney take on Pete Domenici would be almost perfect. But read on to learn more about what sort of candidate John Kelly might make. – promoted by DavidNYC)

UPDATED BELOW

[Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP]

A former United States attorney is considering a run against Senator Pete Domenici. John Kelly, the US Attorney for New Mexico under Bill Clinton, reportedly thinks he should be the Democrat to take on Domenici.

The Albuquerque Tribune:

One Democrat who isn’t running against Wilson is former U.S. Attorney John Kelly. He said Wednesday he’s considering taking on U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici instead.

“I do feel obligated to consider it and am going to look seriously at it,” he said.

Perhaps it is fitting the article was about Heather Wilson’s troubles since Wilson is the other New Mexican member of Congress tainted by the David Iglesias scandal. And perhaps it is fitting that a former USA would go after Domenici, who contributed to the downfall of David Iglesias, the last USA in New Mexico.

Kelly wrote an editorial in March in the ABQJournal denouncing Domenici’s actions.

Read about it below the fold.

Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., in his statement defending his call to then-U.S. Attorney David Iglesias, says that the FBI completed its work on the courthouse corruption case “months” before the call. He expresses concern about “unresolved new federal cases” and the inability of the federal prosecutor to “move more quickly on cases.”

The clear inference is that the courthouse corruption case should have been indicted earlier, and Iglesias is to blame for delaying the process.

Domenici’s critique is misleading and unfair. In a high profile, multi-defendant investigation, the FBI’s report is just the starting point for the prosecutor’s case evaluation. Routinely the prosecutor will want additional interviews conducted, key testimony locked in before the federal grand jury, and pre-indictment pleas negotiated with lower level targets who agree to testify.

He also criticized Iglesias for Iglesias’ failure to report the calls from Wilson and Domenici. Iglesias has admitted this was a critical mistake that he made.

Kelly unsuccessfully ran against Heather Wilson in 2000, losing 51-44. To his credit, he did better than either of Richard Romero’s runs. He still lost by a significant margin, partially because of his role in the Wen Ho Lee scandal. And Domenici was vocal in his disapproval of the Executive Branch’s handling of the Wen Ho Lee situation.

New Mexico’s Republican Sen. Pete Domenici was among numerous Republicans and some Democrats who lashed out at the executive branch in the early days of the Lee saga. At a May 1999 Senate hearing, Domenici portrayed the government’s investigation as a “tragedy of errors.”

While Kelly would undoubtedly be strong in an area of weakness for Domenici – the US Attorney scandal – so would Domenici be strong in an area of weakness for Kelly.

Already, two New Mexican Democrats are going after Domenici, but they are not top-tier candidates; Neither Leland Lehrman or Jim Hannan have any significant political experience. Two other lesser-tier candidates are thinking of a run against Domenici.  Javier Gonzales and Don Wiviott are more qualified than Lehrman and Hannan, but would not strike fear into the heart of Domenici. One more rumored name is Hector Balderas, the current New Mexico State Auditor.

Update:
Jim Hannan wrote in to correct me of my comment that he had no significant political experience.  I’ll let his words speak for themselves.

I served as the political chair of the Sierra Club for five years, oversaw our lobbyist and political endorsements.  I served as Treasurer of the Santa Fe County Democrats.  Together with Bill Sisneros, we raised over $60,000 in the 2000 cycle, money which put Al Gore over the top in New Mexico.  I also served as Chapter Chair of the Sierra Club in New Mexico, under my watch we sued and won a lawsuit against the San Juan Generating Station.

I worked for Mo Udall in Congress in the 1970’s, and have been involved with political and activist campaigns ever since.

My apologies to Mr. Hannan, and in the future I will be sure to list his accomplishments.  My source came from an Albuquerque Tribune article’s sidebar, which listed Hannan’s experience thusly:

He ran unsuccessfully for Santa Fe City Council in 1996.

Again, I apologize.

[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update.  Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.

Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle.  With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.

(See below for the full update.)

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007.  This is a gigantic red flag.  Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector.  He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter.  Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal.  Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here.  First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month.  Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend.  Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid.  Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement.  While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.”  Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid.  It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1.  However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect.  First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired.  Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?  Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority.  Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid.  But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary.  And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days.  Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.

EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch.  Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position.  An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.

DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”

DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.

With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:

Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)

On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)

New Mexico Dems have been waiting for someone to step up to the plate to take on Sen. Pete Domenici.  Tom Udall’s name has been bandied about, as has Rick Homans.  But a blast from the recent past may beat them all to the punch — Patricia Madrid.

According to an inside source, the former New Mexico Attorney General is considering a run against Sen. Pete Domenici.  In her last run for office, she fell to Rep. Heather Wilson by less than 900 votes.

So why would Madrid be considering a run for Senate?  There are actually some very real reasons why it would be worthwhile. 

Read the reasons under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP, MyDD and Daily Kos.

For one, Madrid is an established personality in New Mexico.  She won a statewide election — twice — for Attorney General, and narrowly lost a tough election to Wilson.  I’m guessing that nearly everyone in New Mexico knows Madrid.

For another, she has a large donor base.  She raised $3.3 million for last November’s race.  She proved she can raise the money. I’m sure the DSCC would pitch in a large amount of money to any credible candidate who was willing to take on the 74-year old senior Senator.  And his warchest, $540,000, isn’t exactly an unbeatable number.  Tom Udall has more in his warchest without raising money so far this year.

Obviously, from her run in November, Madrid wants to be in Washington.  And she does need a job… Perhaps a job in the US Senate, goes the thinking.

But the number one reason Madrid may be considering a run is that she, and many, feels Domenici is vulnerable.  With the recent Iglesias scandal and a number of other things (is his age getting to him?  That hawkish position on Iraq isn’t looking so good right now, etc.), he is no longer the unbeatable legend he once was.

Madrid even weighed in on political interference into court-goings on back in March. Madrid alleged Domenici and Wilson also have involved themselves in the probe of the state treasurer scandal. So she has been paying attention, and she knows Domenici is vulnerable.

There are still those who believe that Domenici is as unbeatable as he was two years ago.  I believe his reputation has been damaged, and there isn’t any sign of the current US Attorney scandal going away.  And also for those who believe Domenici is unbeatable, you just have to say three words.  George Allen; macaca. 

I’m not saying Domenici has any racist remarks ready to come from his lips.  What I am saying is that one moment, George Allen was the unbeatable incumbent, a frontrunner for the Republican Presidential nomination.  The next moment, he was embroiled in a fight for his political career with Jim Webb; a fight that he ultimately lost.

Or if you want another example, how about Conrad Burns (who is actually three years younger than Domenici).  Again in a YouTube moment, Burns  was caught resting his eyes, cementing the image of an over-the-hill Senator, too old to serve.  Of course, Burns also insulted firefighters and referred to taxicab terrorists.

I’ll say it once again, because it is that important — Domenici has the big ol’ scandal target on his back.  When you get that scandal target on your back, people start looking closer into things they might have let go before.

Considering all of this, it’s surprising Madrid is the only one rumored to be expressing real interest in taking on our senior Senator. 

Maybe Tom Udall isn’t going to be running for Senate against Pete Domenici in 2008.  What makes me say that is his latest campaign fundraising numbers.  Sure, the numbers look good.  Udall has $712,941 cash on hand after the end of the first quarter.

But when you begin the quarter with $712,873, it’s not all that impressive.  In other words, he netted something under $100 for his fundraising efforts.  Udall raised just $1600 in the first quarter.  I could go on and on on the numbers (the number of “other income” which includes interest and dividends is nearly four times that of the money he raised), but I think you get the point.

More under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

This doesn’t look like someone gearing up for an intense Senate run against an incumbent of over thirty years. It looks like a safe incumbent who is willing to stay in the position he is at.

Sure, Udall has more cash on hand than Domenici, but if Udall was serious about going after Domenici — or of even scaring Domenici into retirement — he would have been out trying to put up a big number.  Raising $300,000 would have put Udall at twice the amount of money Domenici has at this point.

I’m disappointed that Udall looks to not be interested in running for Senate.  I’m just not sure which credible New Mexico Democrat will step up to the plate to take on Domenici.

[Cross-posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

The Albuquerque Tribune just came out with an article on Pajamas Pete Domenici’s Q1 fundraising.  Domenici raised a seemingly meager $393,000 for Q1.  It looks meager given that Domenici is a long-time incumbent and former Chair of a powerful committee.  The article elucidates:

Domenici’s total is dwarfed by what was spent on most Senate races in 2006 but is comparable to what Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Silver City Democrat, raised and spent on the way to an easy victory over Allen McCulloch of Farmington last year.

Bingaman raised about $230,000 in the first quarter of 2005 and had $556,000 in cash on hand at the end of the period. He wound up spending about $3.3 million. Domenici spent about $4.6 million on his last re-election race in 2002.

Bingaman spent $3.3 million to beat his opponent 71-29 last year.  In 2002, Domenici spent $4.6 million and only beat his opponent 65-35, a drubbing to be sure, but a smaller margin than Bingaman’s victory and at a 40% higher price.

So, Domenici is on a correct fundraising pace, if he just wants to raise the same $3 to $5 million for a cake-walk run.

(More below the fold.)

Keep in mind that his physical health, and some have suggested his mental health, are giving away.  And he has that pesky Senate Ethics investigation looming over his head.

If a top-tier challenger ran against Domenici, he would have to raise maybe $8 to $10 million, probably double what he originally expected.  And he’d have to debate and hustle and endure the rigors of a tough campaign.  And, all this, again, while the Senate Ethics investigation loomed over him.  With all that to consider, if a top-tier candidate entered the race, I think Domenici, who turns 75 next month, would opt for retirement.

But that candidate would have to enter the race soon, to force Domenici to a decision.  As I’ve suggested before, Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is probably the strongest option, with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish keeping her eye on the Governor’s office and former state AG Patricia Madrid having just narrowly lost to Heather Wilson and (however unfairly) being tangentially connected to the scandal that plagues Domenici.

If Tom Udall entered the race now, he could force Domenici to retire and have a not-too-difficult run against far-right-winger Steve Pearce or an even less-prominent Republican opponent.  But Udall would have to get in soon.  With all of the draft movements cropping up, I’d sure like to see one get started for Tom Udall.

During the nearly two years that SurveyUSA has tracked Senatorial approval ratings, Republican Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico has never seen approval ratings below 60%.  Well Pete, that era is now over:

Granted, a 57/35 approve/disapprove rating is by no means catastrophic, but as the U.S. Attorney scandal continues to bubble, I wouldn’t expect to see his numbers improve any time soon, either.  And if an ethics complaint against Pajama Pete manages to materialize in the Senate over his role in the David Iglesias scandal, expect to see even further damage to his “Saintly” image in the state.

(Hat-tip to New Mexico FBIHOP for the scoop.)

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

About a month and a half ago, the Guru offered you his first Retirement Watch post, looking at any GOP Senators who might be considering retirement over a re-election bid for any number of reasons.  Here is the Guru’s first update of the Retirement Watch:

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Pajamas Pete was on the RW because of his advanced age (he is turning 75 this May) and questionable mental state.  Over the last several weeks, his role in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal has come to light, as well as his subsequent hiring of lawyers as a result.  Ethics complaints have been filed against him.  It is unclear what ramifications await Domenici, but it does suggest that this previously strong possibility for re-election has undermined his own chances with one very inappropriate phone call.  Should he retire (or otherwise not seek re-election), GOP Rep. Heather Wilson would have been the likely front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace him, but she apparently made an inappropriate phone call similar to Domenici’s, leaving super-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce as the go-to Republican, a man who is likely too conservative to win statewide in New Mexico.  So the NM-GOP’s likely choices are a politically damaged Domenici or a too-conservative-for-statewide Steve Pearce.  If a prominent Democrat steps up early to challenge Domenici, it may put enough pressure on him to opt for retirement.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Since the last RW, voices both liberal and conservative have suggested that Larry Craig is not long for the Senate.  Whether the ID-GOP is trying to urge him out or are prepping a primary challenger is unclear, but the rumors are growing.

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Before the last RW, J. Warner had publicly gone back-and-forth as to where he was leaning between retirement and a re-election bid.  It has appeared that J. Warner would take another term if he didn’t have a tough challenge for it.  He has even planned a little bit of fundraising.  However, former Governor Mark Warner may be more interested in a 2008 Senate bid than previously thought.  Also, former Senator George “Macaca” Allen has held a meeting to gauge support for a 2008 Senate bid should J. Warner retire.  One wouldn’t think that Allen would hold such a meeting unless he had info that the likelihood of a J. Warner retirement was stronger than the 50-50 conventional wisdom.

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Before the last RW post, questions existed as to whether Hagel would run for President, run for Senate re-election, run for both, or retire from politics.  Then, Hagel held a big press conference and answered none of those questions.  He did say that “he would actively raise money for a Senate re-election bid in 2008.”  It did come out that Hagel, before he served two terms in the Senate, made it crystal clear that he felt twelve years was enough and that he supported term limits.  Does he still support such limits?  (Probably not.)  However, GOP state attorney general Jon Bruning has already begun putting together an exploratory committee for a Senate bid.  Is he just getting a head start in case of a Hagel Senate retirement, or does he enjoy inside info?

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Cochran had been publicly undecided on a re-election bid, holding off on a decision until late 2007, as of the last RW.  Since then, he has planned some moderately aggressive fundraising, but he has also moved even further back his declared deadline for announcing his 2008 intentions and stated that being in the minority party would make him “less inclined” to run.

DOWN North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: Her age, health issues, and failure as NRSC Chair had led many to consider her a strong possibility for retirement.  Nevertheless, she says she is running for re-election and has begun aggressive fundraising.  Also, while polling for her has been pretty weak for her overall, they are polling her as the expected Republican in the race, indicating that the media outlets expect her to run again as well.