Tag: KS-03

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

According to Roll Call (subscription required), the NRCC is getting giddy over the candidacy of state Senator Nick Jordan against 5th-term Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore:

House Republicans, long stymied by Rep. Dennis Moore (D) in Kansas’ GOP-leaning 3rd district, think they might have recruited the perfect candidate — state Sen. Nick Jordan (R) — to flip the seat back to the GOP.

In Washington, D.C., last week to participate in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate school, Jordan is described as having the support of both the moderate and conservative wings of the GOP in the Jayhawk State’s 3rd district.

If true, this could prove crucial for a Jordan victory. That’s because Moore first won the suburban eastern Kansas district in 1998 — and has held it since — largely because Republicans have failed to unify behind their nominee in each of the past five elections.

“Both moderates and conservatives are pushing [Jordan] to run,” said a knowledgeable Republican operative based in Kansas. “This is the guy we’ve been waiting for.”

Jordan said in a brief interview late last week that he is “very likely” to run for Congress in 2008 and that he probably would announce his intentions sometime in August. […]

Republicans in D.C. and Kansas claim that Jordan’s position on social issues and his record on economic matters appeal jointly to the conservative and moderate wings of 3rd district Republicans. The two factions have warred with each other in the 3rd district at least since 1998 when Moore defeated Vince Snowbarger (R) for the seat — a split that reflects an intraparty rift plaguing the Kansas GOP statewide since the early 1990s.

Jordan is socially conservative, opposing both abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research — which makes the conservatives happy. But he also has a lengthy record of championing business and economic development projects — and this makes the moderates happy.

It’s hard to blame Republicans for trying at an R+4.2 seat in a Presidential year, but I’m having a hard time seeing Moore as a particularly vulnerable incumbent, especially after looking at his steadily improving electoral track record:

Year	Moore (%)	Republican (%)
1998	52	48
2000	50	47
2002	50	47
2004	55	43
2006	64	34

With a Presidential year bringing the base to the polls (we assume) and a more credible challenger than novice Chuck Ahner, who Moore beat by 30 points last year, Republicans may be able to hold the incumbent to a level more similar to his 2004 result than his 2006 blow out. Nick Smith may be a good recruit for Tom Cole’s NRCC (assuming he makes his bid final), but he strikes me as three or four cycles too late to catch Moore in a particularly vulnerable position.