Author: Crisitunity

Univ. of Washington for KPLU (10/18-28, likely voters, 10/5-14 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D): 51 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 45 (42)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA for KING (10/24-27, likely voters, 10/11-14 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D): 47 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (47)

Undecided: 6 (3)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Two new polls out today both show tightening, of either two or three points in the last two weeks, in the Washington Senate race. This race has become increasingly pivotal in the last few weeks as well… quite literally, in that Nate Silver calls it the Senate’s entire pivot point for control — where, in the simulations he runs where the GOP gets a 10-seat pickup, Washington is most frequently the last race across the line. (Of course, it’s worth considering that as West Virginia seems to be getting better for Joe Manchin, there are increasing chances that Dems could lose Washington and keep the majority regardless of the Washington outcome, which is why overall odds of keeping the Senate are still hovering near 90%.)

What the closing of the gap means is quite debatable, though, depending on what method you use. For the Univ. of Washington, it’s still a Murray victory, as she’s already over 50 (at a point when, presumably, most people have sent in their ballots); her 8-point lead is down to 6. (They also find the reverse-enthusiasm-gap that seems unique in Washington, finding only a 4-pt edge among RVs.)

For SurveyUSA, it drops her into a tie, though. There are a couple odd things with the SurveyUSA poll, though; first, it’s strange that undecideds would shoot up in the closing stages of the race, particularly since the state SoS office reports that a majority of ballots have been sent in. Maybe those who haven’t sent ballots yet are still trying to decide; it’s hard to gauge, SUSA doesn’t include the vote breakdown among people who have already voted, which is an odd choice since they’ve done that in some other races, and it’s even more relevant in the (almost) all-mail-in Washington. Also (h/t to Taniel for pointing this out), there’s a steep dropoff in the Dem/GOP makeup of this sample from the last sample from two weeks ago: 33D-29R today, versus 36D-27R before. There’s no party registration in Washington so this is just self-identification, but it’s an abrupt switch.

One other consideration is the cellphone user gap, which has seemed particularly pronounced in Washington of all states (as seen by the wide split between live-calling Elway, UW, and CNN/Time, vs. auto-dialing SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and PPP). I’m not a fan of mindlessly applying corrective formulas to poll data, but Nate’s most recent post on the “house effects” generated by the different categories of pollsters may be instructive here: all robocallers have an R+2.0 lean, while live polls have a D+0.7 lean (although that may have to do simply with the sheer weight on the R-side of the spectrum brought by Rasmussen’s massive volume of polling). In particular, SUSA has the most pronounced house effect this year, of R+4.0, even more than Rasmussen at R+2.1.

One major caveat, though: SurveyUSA used a live-caller overlay on this particular poll, and find that while the cellphone users they reached did tend to lean Democratic, it doesn’t matter much for the final totals. They’d done this once before on a Washington poll over summer, and come to much the same conclusion. That seemed odd at the time and still does, as it would tend to contrast with recent Pew research that showed a 5-point difference between cellphone-inclusive and non-cellphone samples in the generic ballot. With that in mind, I’ll leave it to you just how much special sauce you want to add to make sense of the results… or you can just average them out to 3, which is pretty close to where Murray’s leaked internals (+4) from a few days ago put the race.

Hellenthal for Alaskans Standing Together (10/25-27, likely voters):

Scott McAdams (D): 23

Joe Miller (R): 29

“Lisa Murkowski, as a write-in”: 44

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s one more data point from Alaska, a race that’s impossible to poll but where pollsters are still trying their darndest. I don’t know if I’d trust this poll (sponsored by Alaskans Standing Together, a group that supports Lisa Murkowski, and taken by a local pollster with whom I’m not familiar… by the way, how can a state as small as Alaska support what seems like so many local pollsters?) any more than I’d trust yesterday’s Hays Research poll, but they show the same thing: Murkowski opening up a pretty big lead over Joe Miller and Scott McAdams, both of whom are mired in the 20s. The big caveat here, of course, is this poll uses some prompting, although it does also mention that one would have to write Murkowski in. This new poll shows Miller similarly toxic, with 33/62 favorables (including 46% “very negative”). McAdams’ main problem, by contrast, is lack of name rec: 7% of respondents asked “Who?” when his name was read.

Also on the Alaska front, there’s still the issue of the printed list of write-in candidates that will be available at polling stations, which the Alaska Supreme Court has basically OK’d, although another hearing will be held today. However, the state was swamped with dozens of people signing up as write-in candidates, apparently in an attempt to bury Murkowski’s name and make it harder to find (this was urged by a local conservative radio talk show host). Here’s a link to the list as it stands: the list is in alphabetical order (and I assume that’s how it’ll be presented at polling places), meaning that anyone with basic familiarity with the letter “M” should be able to operate it without too much trouble. The only names on the list that seem poised to generate any trouble are “Lee Hamerski,” and “Lisa M. Lackey.” (Somehow I gotta wonder if that second one is even real; it’s a little too convenient. At least I.P. Freeleigh didn’t sign up.)

Finally, McAdams and Murkowski are both out with last-minute TV ads that are worth a watch. McAdams goes negative against Murkowski for going Washington, while Murkowski (probably guided by the poll above) still seems to see Miller as the bigger threat, and goes after him for his hired goons’ detainment of a reporter.

Quinnipiac (10/18-24, likely voters, 10/6-10 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 45 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 41 (45)

Undecided: 11 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 15 (22)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (44)

Charlie Crist (I): 35 (30)

Undecided: 7 (4)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Quinnipiac’s latest Florida poll is their most optimistic one for Alex Sink in a while; they’ve been one of the more bearish pollsters in Florida for the last few months, and this is their first poll with a Sink lead since August. While this boost might just be chalked up to float within the margin of error, if nothing else it shows that “debategate” (in which Sink got a text message during her debate) didn’t seem to affect the dynamics of the race one way or the other.

Even more interesting is that Charlie Crist seems to be busting a late move in the Senate race, although it’s probably still too far out of reach for him to pull it out, given the weirdness of the three-way race and the split among left-of-center votes. His five-point gain pulls him within 7 of Marco Rubio. Crist’s gain comes at Meek’s loss (down 7 since the last poll), so there might be some last-minute consolidation by Dem-leaning voters deciding that Crist is the best way to avoid the specter of Rubio. (Crist now gets 51% of Dems, while Meek gets 36% of them. Indies go 43% for Crist, 38% for Rubio, and 9% for Meek.)

Mason-Dixon (10/25-27, likely voters, 10/4-6 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 46 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 43 (40)

Undecided: 7 (-)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Mason-Dixon provides some confirmation today of Quinnipiac’s numbers with a poll taken slightly more recently, although they don’t see movement at all over the last few weeks (Sink led by 4, now by 3). Most interestingly, they find Scott’s unfavorables getting much worse: he’s now at 30/52, compared with Sink’s 49/44. It would be pretty remarkable to see anyone win with those kind of favorables, and a Scott win would obviously have a lot to do with the national climate. If there’s any doubt this is the nation’s closest major governor’s race, check out the trendlines from Pollster.com.

• CO-Sen: In case there was any doubt about where Ken Buck is on abortion, new video has come out from June that he’s not only against Roe v. Wade, but against the whole concept of a right of privacy (on the usual teabagger grounds that it wasn’t explicitly laid out in the Constitution).

• PA-Sen: Although there will be a Barack Obama appearance in Philly proper this weekend, Bill Clinton is left with the task of headlining rallies around the rest of the state. Today Clinton appears on Joe Sestak’s behalf in the Philly suburbs, in Bryn Mawr and Cheyney. Clinton also appears with Dan Onorato and John Callahan in Bethlehem today.

• WV-Sen: Good news for John Raese on two different fronts. The Palm Beach architecture commission approved his plans to replace a “giant dollhouse” in the yard of his Palm Beach mansion with a glass conservatory! (Just be sure to hide all the blunt objects when Colonel Mustard comes over for a visit.) Also, it turns out he’s a +13 handicap, occasionally getting down into the high 70s, so he’s definitely got some game on the links. (Unfortunately for Raese, the reason we know this is because somebody leaked his self-reported scorecards from the golf ladder at the Everglades Club, the all-white country club in Palm Beach about which he’s stonewalled on inquiries on whether he’s a member or not.)

• HI-Gov: Credit Mufi Hannemann for good sportsmanship. In response to evidence that his supporters from the primary (who tended to skew socially conservative) were tending to break toward Duke Aiona, Hannemann recently cut a TV ad urging his backers to vote for Neil Abercrombie. The ad’s part of a $200K buy by Hawaii labor unions.

• AZ-03: It’s sounding like that PPP poll that gave him a lead wasn’t a total fluke. Whatever Jon Hulburd is seeing is enough to get him to open up his personal checkbook and hand his campaign another $250K for a final push. No specific numbers are available, but the article says that his internal polling sees him “within the margin of error.” (That’s not usually the phrasing of someone who’s leading in his internals, but maybe he still can gut it out.)

• NC-11: A handful of Democrats in tough races have said that they’d rather vote for someone other than Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, but no one has actually stepped forward until now to volunteer himself as a receptacle for Blue Dog votes. Heath Shuler, previously declared as one of the “no” votes, said he’ll do it if no one else will. There’s not telling how this gambit would work out if the Dems keep the House, or if he’ll be running for minority leader if not.

• Passages: Condolences to the friends and family of Owen Pickett, the former long-time Democratic Rep. from VA-02. Pickett, who was 80, served there from 1987 to 2001.

• SSP TV:

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s closing argument is an endorsement from her daughter, celebrexecutive (that should be a word, if it isn’t) Stephanie

• LA-Sen: Assuming Charlie Melancon loses, still give him credit for using all the material at his disposal: his TV spot hits David Vitter as hard as possible, saying his taxpayer-paid salary paid for prostitutes and it’s a “sin” he represents Louisiana at all

• WV-Sen: Credit to Joe Manchin, too, for not Coakleying this one up; once he found himself in an unexpected close race, he buckled down, found messages that worked, and hammered on them, as in his final ad

• FL-22: Ron Klein goes positive with his last spot, touting endorsements from a variety of citizen groups

• NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster’s ad is a combo platter of hitting Charlie Bass on his Wall Street ways and going positive on her own job creation plans

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 48%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 29%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 59%

• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 26%, Paul LePage (R) 40%, Eliot Cutler (I) 26%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 44%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

(um, do you really want that to be your final answer on WA-Sen?)

Hays Research for IBEW (10/25-26, ? likely voters, 10/22 in parens):

Scott McAdams (D): 29 (25)

Joe Miller (R): 23 (26)

“Another candidate you have to write in”: 34 (31)

Undecided: 13 (17)

(n = 500)

Hays Research has apparently been polling the Alaska Senate race repeatedly without releasing the results, and the Mudflats got their hands on the newest batch of numbers, which are a real eye-opener. (Of course, that would suggest that they’re polling on someone’s behalf, and the writeup has no word of that, which seems like an important detail. It also doesn’t give an MoE or even state whether we’re dealing with LVs, RVs, or what here. But you can’t have everything.) (UPDATE: Thanks to Nate Silver, we now know the poll was paid for by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and is of likely voters.)

Most notably, this is the first poll released that gives Lisa Murkowski a sizable lead, or at least that gives “another candidate you have to write in” a sizable lead, but one would expect the vast majority of that go for Murkowski. (Unlike other polls, this one doesn’t even delve into who people plan to write in. There have been as many methods of polling this impossible-to-poll race as there have been pollsters trying it.) But also significantly, this is the first poll to show Joe Miller in third place and Scott McAdams leading among all named candidates. The memo has trendlines from four different polls, so the collapse of Miller is on full display over the course of October.

Suggestive of an “anti-incumbent” year is that most of the momentum seems to be with McAdams, not Murkowski, though. Does that mean that Miller votes are entirely flowing to McAdams, rather than to Murkowski? Maybe former Miller votes are also shifting to Murkowski and undecideds are breaking for McAdams. (That would certainly explain why the NRSC has been going anti-McAdams with its latest ad: they’re rightly worried he may be able to shoot the gap.) At any rate, Miller seems to be in a position he can’t recover from, especially as more damning revelations seem to trickle in every day: his favorables are now 26/68, including 60% “very unfavorable.” (If there’s any consolation for him from this, at least he’ll probably still perform better than fellow grifter Dan Maes.)

Here’s one other item that will help Murkowski: the Alaska Supreme Court promptly overruled a lower court that said that voters can’t use a list of potential write-in candidates. While the list approved by the Supreme Court will not actually be on display in voting booths, those asking for help at polling places can be shown the list. (UPDATE: There’s still a temporary restraining order against the lists for now, though, so this looks like it’ll be an ongoing story. H/t Adam B.) (YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Actually, the lists will be available, but with a few caveats. In Adam’s own words, “What it does is stays the effect of the TRO below — in other words, the Board is not forbidden from posting lists — but says that the lists can’t contain partisan identification for the write-in candidates, and if a voter is given the list, her ballot gets segregated.” Here’s the link to the Supreme Court’s order, if anyone actually wants to read the fine print.)

• AK-Sen: As is often the case, Alaska dominates our headlines today. Perhaps biggest in its implications is a hot-off-the-grill ruling from a judge that says that the state can’t provide a list of possible write-in candidates for people in the voting booth. Obviously, that hurts the cumbersome-named Lisa Mukrosky Morkoski Gibr Murkowski. Also, in the good news (well, maybe not, considering how far her star has fallen in-state) column for Joe Miller: Sarah Palin will be returning to the Last Frontier to stump for him tomorrow.

On the bad news front for Miller, though, first, he had to shout “I LIE!” yet again. That’s a confession from his own work e-mails, over his now-well-known reprimand for hijacking (and covering up his tracks) of co-workers’ computers to rig a local Republican online straw poll. That’s at the core of his Fairbanks personnel files, released last evening after he declined to appeal their release to the state supreme court. On top of that, now the Army is investigating his use of its soldiers from Fort Richardson to act as his personal paramilitary force during their off-hours; in addition to rules prohibiting active military members from involvement in political campaigns, it’s unclear whether they had their commander’s permission to seek outside employment.

• CA-Sen: Here’s some good news; Carly Fiorina bounced back quickly from her hospitalization yesterday for an infection associated with her breast cancer recovery, and left the hospital today. She’ll be back on the trail tomorrow, says her campaign.

• CO-Sen: Would you believe this is the biggest-money Senate race anywhere in the country? It is, if you go by outside group expenditures. 27 different IE groups have spent nearly $25 million in Colorado, with the NRSC leading the way. (Nevada will still probably wind up the most expensive overall, factoring in the candidates’ own accounts.) Meanwhile Ken Buck is in the news for two other reasons, first, his questioning of the separation of the church and state… handled more elegantly than Christine O’Donnell’s palm-to-forehead method, but still probably a liability as he seeks to downplay his extremism. And also, he’s now agnostic on whether he’ll support Mitch McConnell for GOP leader (Buck, of course, owes Jim DeMint big-time for getting him as far as he’s gotten).

• WV-Sen: Wow, this stuff literally writes itself. John Raese, under fire from Joe Manchin and the DSCC for his Florida mansion (and, for all practical purposes, residency), is now going to have to put some spin on this. The current item on the agenda for the Palm Beach planning commission: approval for Raese to replace a six-by-eight-foot “giant dollhouse” on his property with a fourteen-by-fifteen-foot “glass conservatory,” perfect for those real-life Clue re-enactments. I know that’s a problem that most West Virginians grapple with on a day-to-day basis.

• AZ-Gov: Now here’s an October Surprise that’s pushing the envelope (close to a November Surprise). Old documents reveal that Jan Brewer, a state Senator at the time, was involved in a 1988 auto accident where she was suspected at the time of driving under the influence. While she was immune from arrest at the time because the legislature was in session, it’s not clear why the case wasn’t pursued after that.

• MS-04: This might provide a small boost (dozens of votes?) to Gene Taylor: the Republican who lost the primary to state Rep. Steven Palazzo threw his backing to Taylor. Joe Tegerdine, interestingly, was the Tea Party candidate in the GOP race (with Palazzo the establishment pick), and finished with 43% of the vote; Tegerdine seemed to frame his decision very much in terms of pissing off the Republican establishment, in fact.

• Dark Money: If you look at only one link today, it should be this one, where a picture is worth way more than 1,000 words. It shows the octopus tentacles linking all the various shadowy outside groups that have poured in hundreds of millions of undisclosed dollars, and how they all kind of link back to Republican leadership. It’s almost worthy of Glenn Beck’s blackboard (well, if it had Woodrow Wilson and Diego Rivera on there somewhere).

• DNC: To quote Don Brodka, “if I wanted smoke blown up my ass, I’d be at home with a pack of cigarettes and short length of hose.” Nevertheless, the DNC is out with a memo today showing in various ways how the Republican wave hasn’t materialized, at least not in the form of early voting patterns so far, that’s worth a look-see (especially the graphs).

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC has two spots in Colorado, both with citizens reciting the litany of why they can’t vote for Ken Buck

• IL-Sen: The DSCC links Mark Kirk to George W. Bush, while Alexi Giannoulias trots out the Obamas in his own ad

• MO-Sen: I seriously can’t summon up anything interesting to say about the last ads from Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan; it’s been that sort of race

• NV-Sen: The DSCC finishes in Nevada by pointing out how Sharron Angle consistently brings teh crazy

• PA-Sen: The DSCC hits Pat Toomey on outsourcing yet again, while Pat Toomey goes blandly autobiographical for his closing spot

• WA-Sen: The DSCC’s parting shot is to hit Dino Rossi over his web of connections to unsavory real estate and lending partners

• WI-Sen: Both candidates close by ragging on each other; Ron Johnson hits Russ Feingold for only being fake “mavericky,” while Feingold asks why Johnson is being so vague and cagey about his agenda

• WV-Sen: The DSCC’s newest ad hits John Raese on the Florida residency issue yet again

• ND-AL: This may be the most interesting ad of the day: Earl Pomeroy faces the camera and says “I’m not Nancy Pelosi, and I’m not Barack Obama” (yeah, that’s pretty evident by looking at you); he pivots off people’s anger to say they’ll be even angrier, though, if Republicans go against the farm bill, Social Security, and so on

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s last ad beats the ‘change’ drum, and focuses on the Seattle Times endorsement again

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 46%, LeAlan Jones (G) 5%

• MD-Sen: Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 56%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 35%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 46%, Chris Dudley (R) 49%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 42%, Scott Walker (R) 52%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 49%, John Raese (R) 46%

(ooops, time for Scotty to get in line with everyone else on this one!)

Here’s the last batch of 10 of the Hill House polls by Penn Schoen Berland. The sample periods were a mix of Oct. 16-19 and Oct. 19-21, with each sample with a 4.9% MoE. With previous rounds focusing on freshmen, open seats, and sophomores, this one deals with some of the most endangered veterans:

• CO-03: John Salazar (D-inc) 43%, Scott Tipton (R) 47%

• FL-02: Allen Boyd (D-inc) 38%, Steve Southerland 50%

• GA-08: Jim Marshall (D-inc) 37%, Austin Scott 50%

• IN-09: Baron Hill (D-inc) 46%, Todd Young (R) 44%

• IA-03: Leonard Boswell (D-inc) 49%, Brad Zaun (R) 37%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 44%

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (D-inc) 43%, Lou Barletta (R) 48%

• SC-05: John Spratt (D-inc) 39%, Mick Mulvaney (R) 49%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 45%, Kristi Noem (R) 42%

• TX-17: Chet Edwards (D-inc) 40%, Bill Flores (R) 52%

So, 4 out of 10 isn’t bad, considering the crowd we’re looking at here (including the DOA-for-months Chet Edwards and Allen Boyd). Especially noteworthy is IA-03… who would have thought, even a few months ago, that chronically underperforming Leonard Boswell would be well on his way to re-election and possibly even not the most endangered Iowa Dem?

What’s the overall damage? 31 of the total 42 Hill polls had Republicans in the lead, 4 ties, and 7 Dem leads. (Remember, 2 of those were GOP-held seats.) Mark Penn’s take on what that means overall (remember, we’re talking Mark Penn here, so take with salt as necessary):

“We didn’t even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone for Democrats. So that, along with our entire series of polls, points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans.”

(I’m wondering what 15 he’s talking about? Considering that they polled NH-01, TN-08, WA-03, WI-07, MI-01, AR-01, CO-04, IL-11, MD-01, NM-02, OH-15, PA-03, VA-02, and VA-05 earlier, that means I can count only AR-02, IN-08, LA-03, TN-06, NY-29, KS-03, and OH-01 in the “too far gone” category. Either he knows something about eight other races that nobody else does, or his math is a little fuzzy. Maybe he’s counting FL-08 and WI-08, but even then he’d still owe us six more.)

• AL-Gov (Univ. of S. Alabama): Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 48%

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Suffolk): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: Kamala Harris leads Steve Cooley 35-34 in the AG race, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 55-40)

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov (SurveyUSA for KABC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%; Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%

(Bonus: Gavin Newsom leads Abel Maldonado 42-34 for LG, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 46-44)

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PPP): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 45-48)

• CA-20 (SurveyUSA for KFSN): Jim Costa (D-inc) 42%, Andy Vidak (R) 52%

(note: this poll population is 37% Hispanic, compared with 67% in reality) (also, the DCCC responded with a poll giving Costa a 47-41 lead, although they neglected to leak the pollster’s name) (UPDATE: The pollster is Bennet Petts & Normington, with the sample over the same 10/21-24 period as SurveyUSA)

• CT-Sen, CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Richard Blumenthal (D) 54% (54), Linda McMahon (R) 42% (43); Dan Malloy (D) 48% (49), Tom Foley (R) 43% (42)

• FL-08 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alan Grayson (D-inc) 41% (36), Daniel Webster (R) 48% (43), Peg Dunmire (T) 4%

• GA-Gov (InsiderAdvantage): Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 47%, John Monds (L) 5%

• ID-Gov, ID-Sen, ID-01, ID-02 (Mason-Dixon for Idaho newspapers): Keith Allred (D) 30%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%; Tom Sullivan (D) 20%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 64%; Walt Minnick (D-inc) 44%, Raul Labrador (R) 41%; Mike Crawford (D) 17%, Mike Simpson (R-inc) 67%

• IA-Gov (Global Strategy Group for Chet Culver): Chet Culver (D-inc) 40%, Terry Branstad (R) 46%

• IL-Gov (MarketShares for Chicago Tribune): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39% (39), Bill Brady (R) 43% (38), Scott Lee Cohen (I) 5%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%, Lex Green (L) 2%

• IL-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%, Mark Kirk (R) 36%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%, Mike Labno (L) 4%

• KY-Sen (PPP): Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

• KY-03 (RiverCity for Todd Lally): John Yarmuth (D-inc) 41%, Todd Lally (R) 37% (note: n = only 239, yet they claim MoE of 4.5%)

• LA-02 (Anzalone-Liszt): Cedric Richmond (D) 49%, Joe Cao (R-inc) 32%

• MD-Sen (Baltimore Sun): Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 59%, Eric Wargotz (R) 32%

• NC-Sen (SurveyUSA for WRAL): Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 53%, Mike Beitler (L) 5%

• NC-Sen (Tel Opinion Research for Civitas): Elaine Marshall (D) 34%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%, Mike Beitler (L) 4%

• NJ-03 (Monmouth): John Adler (D-inc) 43% (42), Jon Runyan (R) 48% (39)

• NJ-03 (Eagleton/Rutgers): John Adler (D-inc) 44%, Jon Runyan (R) 44%, Peter DeStefano (I) 4%

• NJ-06 (Monmouth): Frank Pallone (D-inc) 52% (53), Anna Little (R) 45% (41)

• NM-Gov (POS for Susana Martinez): Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 50%

• NM-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Diane Denish): Diane Denish (D) 45%, Susana Martinez (R) 46%

• NY-20 (Siena): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42% (54), Chris Gibson (R) 51% (37)

(The Murphy camp leaked an internal from Global Strategy Group today, although only saying a 3-point lead without specific toplines)

• OH-Gov, OH-Sen (Quinnipiac): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43% (41), John Kasich (R) 49% (51); Lee Fisher (D) 36% (34), Rob Portman (R) 53% (55)

• OH-Sen (Wilson Research, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Lee Fisher (D) 38%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• OH-Sen (Univ. of Cincinnati for Ohio newspapers): Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman 58%

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Ipsos for Reuters): Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 46%; Dan Onorato (D) 43%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

(Sestak leads 46-42 among RVs, and even Onorato leads 46-43 among RVs)

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Muhlenberg): Joe Sestak (D) 40% (42), Pat Toomey (R) 48% (47); Dan Onorato (D) 39% (41), Tom Corbett (R) 50% (49)

• PA-08 (POS for Mike Fitzpatrick): Patrick Murphy (D-inc) 40%, Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 50%

• PA-10 (Lycoming): Chris Carney (D-inc) 45%, Tom Marino (R) 39%

• SD-Gov (Neilson Brothers): Scott Heidepriem (D) 40%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 43%

• VA-09 (SurveyUSA for WDBJ): Rick Boucher (D-inc) 46%, Morgan Griffith (R) 47%

• WI-Gov (Mellman Group, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 47%

• CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, who’s temporarily off the campaign trail and in the hospital after an infection associated with reconstructive surgery that she had over the summer after recovering from breast cancer. She’s says she’ll be back in action soon.

• CO-Sen: The Democrats in Colorado have filed an FEC complaint with Ken Buck, alleging illegal coordination. The coordination was between Buck and Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund (which has spent $370K here so far). This doesn’t look likely to get addressed before Election Day, though.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul eventually got around, today, to cutting ties with and condemning a volunteer involved in assaulting a MoveOn activist before last night’s debate, outside the venue. An activist trying to give a fake award to Paul was shoved to the ground and kicked/trampled.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle has always been the prime example of the GOP’s apparent strategy for its more troublesome candidates (which is to have them hide from the media), but this is a little extreme: all manner of sleight-of-hand was used at a Reno appearance to keep her away from about 40 reporters who were looking for her, to the extent of using a decoy to get into her official vehicle while she left through a side door. Also, here’s an interesting catch, especially since Angle supposedly has a lot of cash these days: her latest filing has nothing about salaries for her staff. Oversight, or is there more of a burn rate problem than we’d been led to believe?

• WA-Sen: This CQ article is your generic this-race-is-tight-and-important piece, but it has a few interesting tidbits buried in it: one, Patty Murray’s internals have her up “around 4,” although that’s all we get to find out. And two, this election is already effectively more-than-half over: the state SoS’s office says that 50% of all voters have submitted their ballots, on track for turnout of at least 66%, which would be third-highest non-presidential turnout ever in the state. (I assume you all know which party tends to do better in higher-turnout models.) Finally, Dino Rossi’s doing a little hiding from the media himself: on a conference call with reporters, Rossi actually refused to say where he was calling from, just that he was “traveling all over right now.” (Maybe we should be looking for the guy in the red and white striped shirt?)

• VT-Gov: Biden alert! Here’s one election where every single vote will count (seeing as how it has fewer constituents than most House districts), and the veep is trying to roust out some votes with a Burlington appearance with Dem nominee Peter Shumlin the day before the election.

• CA-47: This was a weird election even before this, with stark racial overtones, and now it’s even weirder: an independent candidate, Cecilia Iglesias, is making her presence known with a TV ad buy (although just on local cable on Univision). Who will this hurt? The GOP says it’ll hurt Loretta Sanchez, because it splits the Latino vote. The Dems say it’ll hurt Van Tran, since Iglesias is a “known Republican.”

• CT-05: Hmm, here’s a novel strategy for dealing with ads from third party groups that contain blatant lies: push back against them, and TV stations just may stop running them. That’s what happened in Connecticut, where the American Action Network’s ads against Chris Murphy got taken down, by Fox-CT (on cable) no less. (The ad is part of the series saying that you can go to jail for not having health insurance.)

• VA-05: This is big all around: that the President is stumping on behalf of a House candidate (albeit one within a helicopter ride away from DC), and that said House candidate in a red district is welcoming him. In case you didn’t guess, it’s Tom Perriello, who’ll be rallying UVA students with the Prez in Charlottesville.

• American Crossroads: Here’s part of the Crossroads road map for the last week: at a cost of $3 million altogether, they’re moving into NC-11, NY-20, and GA-02, as well as continuing their presence in HI-01 and NY-22. They’re also launching ads in CA-20, IN-02, MO-03, ND-AL, TN-04, OH-16, and TX-23.

• SSP TV:

• KY-Sen: The NRSC and Rand Paul both turn the tables on Jack Conway, saying he wants to talk about Paul’s checkered past (i.e. Aqua Buddha) to avoid talking about Obama

• NV-Sen: The NRSC is out with a rather incoherent ad about how Harry Reid fancies himself a superhero, while Sharron Angle‘s out with another border-themed ad with menacing shadowy men who, of course, aren’t actually Latino

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s closing argument cites his independence

• WV-Sen: Thank God for trackers… Joe Manchin’s camp strings together John Raese’s greatest hits at various appearances to demonstrate his “crazy” ideas

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown wins the jujitsu black belt for his closing ad (if not the overall Zen master award for his whole campaign): unlike the very busy Manchin ad, he only needs one quote from Meg Whitman to make his own case for himself… she says she came to California 30 years ago because it back then it was a land of opportunity and it worked (uh, Meg? who was governor of California 30 years ago?)

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal’s closing ad says Roy Barnes is too ambitious, and Deal is just a humble public servant

• TX-Gov: Bill White’s new ad says 10 years is too long, playing the dread “career politician” card on Rick Perry

• MA-10: The DCCC’s new ad in the 10th goes after Jeff Perry’s controversial police sergeant tenure, in case anyone there was unaware of it

• OH-18: Zack Space goes after Bob Gibbs on outsourcing and immigration

• VA-05: The Sierra Club’s out with an ad bolstering Tom Perriello

• CA-Init: I’m not sure I thought I’d live to see the day where there ads running in favor of the legalization of marijuana, but apparently the Yes on 19 campaign was able to scrape together enough stems and seeds for a TV buy

• Rasmussen Classic:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 46%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%, John Monds (L) 5%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 58 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 21 58%, Some other 15%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 53%

• New Rasmussen (aka Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39%, Bill Brady (R) 44%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 43%, Rand Paul (R) 50%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

Time for our second-to-last round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings.

• PA-Sen: Lean R to Tossup

• CA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
• CO-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
• MD-Gov: Tossup to Lean D

• AZ-03: Likely R to Lean R
• CA-03: Likely R to Lean R
• CO-04: Tossup to Lean R
• FL-02: Tossup to Lean R
• FL-12: Likely R to Lean R
• MA-06: Safe D to Likely D
• MA-10: Lean D to Tossup
• MS-04: Lean D to Tossup
• NC-11: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-20: Lean D to Tossup
• NY-22: Likely D to Lean D
• OR-05: Lean D to Tossup
• TN-04: Lean D to Tossup
• TX-27: Safe D to Likely D
• VA-11: Lean D to Tossup
• WA-06: Safe D to Likely D

14 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction. If anything, we’re seeing a continuation of the pattern where the Dems in some high-profile statewide races seem to have bottomed out and there’s a little bounce-back, but where things seem to be keeping on worsening in the House. (Although that probably doesn’t have as much to do with the overall national atmosphere continuing to get worse, as it just does with additional polling coming to light that lets us see more underserved races in sharper relief.)