Author: Crisitunity

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/12-14, likely voters).

DE-Sen:

Beau Biden (D): 45

Mike Castle (R): 46

Undecided: 9

Ted Kaufman (D): 37

Mike Castle (R): 51

Undecided: 12

John Carney (D): 41

Mike Castle (R): 49

Undecided: 10

Chris Coons (D): 39

Mike Castle (R): 51

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4%)

DE-AL:

John Carney (D): 44

Charlie Copeland (R): 21

Undecided: 35

John Carney (D): 45

Greg Lavelle (R): 18

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4%)

Conventional wisdom among legacy media pundits, once Rep. Mike Castle somewhat unexpectedly got into the Senate race, was that the race had suddenly shot past tossup status into Republican leaning territory. Today’s first R2K poll of the race should dispel that notion: AG Beau Biden is fully competitive with Castle, trailing him by only 1, and matching the popular Castle on favorables (65/29 for Biden, 64/30 for Castle). And that’s before any gloves have come off (for instance, the DSCC bringing its weight, and the presence of a certain vice-presidential dad, to bear). If there’s any doubt, consider the case of Bill Roth‘s 2000 election, as an indication of what happens when popular but tired and aging Delaware icons who’ve never really been tested, and who’ve slowly gotten out of touch with a gradually bluening state, run up against a vigorous opponent.

There’s one question remaining, though: is Biden actually going to run? Having recently returned from Iraq, Biden hasn’t said much on the matter yet, leaving some worried that the entry of Castle into the race might deter him. In the event that he doesn’t, R2K polled some other possibilities (including caretaker Sen. Ted Kaufman staying on, former Lt. Gov. (and 2008 gubernatorial primary loser) John Carney switching from the House race, or New Castle County Exec Chris Coons getting in), and the results aren’t as good. There’s some good news on that front today, though: Biden is “absolutely” considering running for the Senate, according to ABC News. Biden will be making the decision “in due course,” after the requisite family conference.

R2K also looks at the House race in the wake of Castle’s vacating the seat, which is quickly shaping up to be one of the Dems’ likeliest pickups in 2010. With the Democratic establishment firmly behind Carney, the GOP is just starting to cast its net. The top target is probably former state Sen. and former Lt. Gov. candidate Charlie Copeland, but other possibilities include state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle, businessmen Robert Harra and Anthony Wedo, and possibly former US Attorney Colm Connolly. In the end, which Republican takes the plunge may not matter much, as R2K finds Carney doubling-up on either Copeland or Lavelle.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen | DE-AL

• CA-Sen: What’s with the California politicians who are too busy to vote? Carly Fiorina has previously conceded that she didn’t vote in all elections, but today her camp is admitting that she didn’t vote at all in the period between 1989 and 1999.

• CT-Sen: After a mediocre fundraising quarter (of course, between prostate cancer and pinch-hitting at the helm of the HELP committee, he may have had better things to do), Chris Dodd is getting some high-level help. Barack Obama will appear on Dodd’s behalf at a fundraiser in Connecticut next week.

• FL-Sen: Two very different pictures of where Charlie Crist’s approval stands, from different pollster. Insider Advantage finds his approval at a puzzlingly low 48/41,and 55/38 among Republicans. (They didn’t poll the primary or general.) On the other hand, a poll by Republican pollster Cherry Communications on behalf of the Florida Chamber of Commerce finds 62/28. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s losing streak among the party base continued, as Marco Rubio racked up a big win with the Palm Beach GOP, winning their straw poll 90-17. (While most of the straw polls have happened in rural, teabaggy places, this is moderate, country club terrain, where Crist should play better.) Interestingly, ex-NH Senator Bob Smith, whose existence most people, me included, had forgotten about, pulled in 11 votes.

• NV-Sen: Facing bad poll numbers but armed with gigantic piles of cash, Harry Reid has already started advertising for his re-election. Despite his decades in office, he’s running a TV spot basically intended to introduce himself to Nevada, seeing as how many of the state’s residents have moved in since the last time he was elected in 2004.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand reported another large cash haul this quarter, bringing in $1.6 mil and sitting on $4.1 mil CoH. Nevertheless, she still needs to work on introducing herself to her constituents (granted, there’s a lot of them); a Newsday/Siena poll of Long Islanders find that she has a favorable of 23/27, with 50 saying they don’t know.

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman doubled up on Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the money chase in Ohio, raising $1.3 million to $620K for Fisher. Portman will still need to get past wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the primary, though, who’s pledging to spend up to $7 million of his own money on the race, which could drain Portman nicely before he faces off against a Democrat. No word yet from Fisher’s Dem opponent, SoS Jennifer Brunner, although the fact that she just replaced her campaign finance team can’t be an encouraging sign.

• PA-Sen: This would be a big ‘get’ for Joe Sestak if he were running in Connecticut: Ned Lamont, whose successful primary defeat of Joe Lieberman in 2006 established some precedent for Sestak, gave Sestak his endorsement.

• CT-Gov: Jodi Rell is not looking much like a candidate for re-election, if her fundraising is any indication; she raised just $14K over the last quarter. The Dems in the race (who are running with or without a Rell retirement), Stamford mayor Dan Malloy and SoS Susan Bysiewicz, have each raised over $100K.

• FL-Gov: The poll paid for by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, mentioned above, also took a look at the Florida governor’s race. They see GOP AG Bill McCollum beating Dem state CFO Alex Sink, 42-35.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen polls the New Jersey gubernatorial race again, and there’s a pretty important distinction between their results with and without leaners pushed. Their topline numbers are 45 for Chris Christie, 41 for Jon Corzine, and 9 for Chris Daggett, a bit more Christie-favorable than what else we’ve seen this week. However, in Rasmussen’s words, “when voters are asked their initial choice,” it’s a 38-38 tie between Christie and Corzine, with 16 for Daggett. This should superficially cheer Democrats, but it also points to some hope for Christie, in that it shows just how soft a lot of Daggett’s support is. (Rasmussen also finds that 57% of Daggett’s supporters say they could change their minds before Election Day.)

• WY-Gov: Gov. Dave Freudenthal is at least offering some sort of timeline on deciding whether to seek a third term, but we’ll need to wait a long time. He says he’ll let us know after the end of the next legislative session, in March; the end of the filing period is May 28. He also didn’t offer much insight into when he’d set about challenging the state’s term limits law in court (a challenge he’d be expected to win, but one that could be time-consuming) if he did decide to run.

• FL-10: The retirement speculation surrounding 79-year-old Rep. Bill Young isn’t going to go away with his fundraising haul this quarter: only $4,500, with $419K on hand. He’s also giving away money (to the tune of $10,000) to the NRCC, despite facing a strong challenge next year. Unfortunately, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, had a second straight lackluster quarter of his own, bringing in $77K for $101K CoH.

• FL-19: A roundup from the newly-merged CQ/Roll Call looks at the quickly developing field in the dark-blue 19th, for a special election to replace the soon-to-resign Robert Wexler. The big question is whether Wexler throws his support behind state Sen. Peter Deutch; Deutch won Wexler’s old state Senate seat (which covers more than half the 19th) in 2006 partly due to Wexler’s endorsement. West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel is another possibility; so too are Broward County mayor Stacy Ritter and state Sen. Jeremy Ring, although their Broward County bases don’t overlap as well with the 19th. Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber (who finished 3rd in the 1996 primary that Wexler won) is already in the race.

• LA-02: Um, what? GOP Rep. Joe Cao will be appearing with Barack Obama in New Orleans at several events today. While it’s apparently customary for presidents to invite local lawmakers to appearances in their districts, it’s also customary for members of the opposition party to decline. Cao, however, probably sees hitching his wagon to Obama as at least a faint hope of staving off defeat in this strongly Democratic district. Cao’s fundraising numbers for last quarter were pretty good, with $394K raised, but his burn rate was terrible, churning through nearly all of it ($382K) with high costs for direct mail fundraising.

• NY-01: We could have a real races on our hands in the 1st, where Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop’s Republican challenger Randy Altschuler reported $659K in the third quarter. Of course, $450K of that was from his own pocket, and a grand total of one donor was actually from within the 1st, with the bulk of the rest of the money coming from Manhattan.

• Census: David Vitter, who, with Robert Bennett, is leading the Republican charge to get the Census to ask respondents about their citizenship status, has decided to modify his amendment to this year’s appropriations package after one of the academics who he was relying on said that such a measure would scare off respondents from participating in the census at all. Not that it would matter, since it’s not likely to get an up-or-down vote, and Commerce Sec. Gary Locke already made clear that it’s way too late to make changes to the 2010 forms, which have already been printed and shipped.

• Polling: PPP’s Tom Jensen notes, that generally, Republicans aren’t picking up any new voters; the main problem with the upcoming New Jersey and Virginia elections is that Democrats have disproportionately lost interest. If the 2008 voter universes still applied in NJ and VA, Democrats would be winning both races handily.

Rasmussen (10/13, likely voters, 8/11 in parentheses) (primary release):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 45 (48)

Some other: 6 (4)

Joe Sestak (D): 38 (35)

Pat Toomey (R): 37 (43)

Some other: 6 (5)

(MoE: ±3%)

Arlen Specter(D-inc): 46 (47)

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (34)

Other: 2

(MoE: ±5%)

Arlen Specter’s party switch, which looked like smart self-preservation at the time, may not be doing him any favors these days, as he looks to be stuck between the Scylla and Charybdis of Rep. Joe Sestak and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter finds himself losing to Toomey in the general (though not by as wide a margin as Rasmussen saw in August at the height of town-hall-mania), and now he finds Sestak pulling within the margin of error on his left, making Rasmussen the first pollster to see a single-digit race in the Dem primary.

Also very interesting: Rasmussen continues its trend (verified by Dane & Associates earlier this week) of finding, contrary to conventional wisdom, that Sestak polls better against Toomey than does Specter, casting doubt on whatever moderate electability argument Specter might make. Rasmussen finds Specter with 46/52 favorables (with only 2% unsure), so he has little room to grow. Toomey clocks in at 52/27; Sestak is least-known, at 37/34 with 30% not sure, so that seems to give him the highest ceiling.

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (10/7-12, registered voters, 5/26-30 in parens (general only)):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (46)

Pat Toomey (R): 41 (37)

None/other: 4 (4)

Undecided: 12 (13)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44

Joe Sestak (D): 16

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Republican pollster Susquehanna also came out with a Senate poll a few days ago, and although it gives him it a bigger edge over Sestak, it shouldn’t fill Specter with much joy either. He barely squeaks by Toomey (a 1-point lead, down from 9 in May before things started to go haywire for him), and he’s looking at a “deserves re-election” number of 31% (versus 59% “someone else”).

As a throw-in, they also tested the Republican gubernatorial primary, where AG Tom Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach 36-13 with 50% undecided. There are no numbers released for a Sestak/Toomey head-to-head, or the gubernatorial Dem primary or general.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

Siena (pdf) (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/27-29 in parentheses):

Bill Owens (D): 33 (28)

Dede Scozzafava (R): 29 (35)

Doug Hoffman (C): 23 (16)

Undecided: 15 (21)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

We had a vague sense this was coming, what with the news stories in the last few days describing a faltering Dede Scozzafava campaign low on cash, and rumors abounding in the rightosphere about Republican private polls showing Scozzafava down by double digits. Now we have it out in the open, though: Democrat Bill Owens has opened up a lead in the special election to succeed John McHugh in the 23rd, turning a 28-35 deficit into a 33-29 edge. (Discussion already underway in tietack‘s diary.)

Owens’ gains have come, apparently, simply by better introducing himself to the district. He’s never been elected before, but he’s been dominating the TV airwaves compared to the other two candidates. That’s helped him with Democrats — he’s improved his share among Democrats from 48% to 55% — and in his home turf of the east North Country around Plattsburgh, where he went from 32% to 45%. Scozzafava, on the other hand, has declined precipitously among the groups where she needs to do best: Republicans, 47% to 40%, and in the west North Country which she represents in the Assembly, 53% to 44%. Conservative Doug Hoffman is buoyed by gains in the part of the district where none of the candidates hail from — Madison, Oneida, and Oswego Counties near Syracuse — which is also probably the most conservative part of the district; there, he moved from 20% to 34%, where he actually leads the other two.

The developing meme of the day seems to be “GOP civil war” over this race. The Hill reports that only 17 Republican House members have given to Scozzafava, and a sizable percentage of that 17 is GOP leadership… although with one key exception:

In an effort to prove Scozzafava can attract conservatives, Sessions pushed Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) to step up and endorse her. After his announcement, Hensarling took shots from some prominent conservative blogs and media outlets, with some going so far as to lob unfounded charges about Hensarling’s personal life.

Leadership aides blame those incidents on [Republican Conference chair Mike] Pence, and say his decision not to endorse Scozzafava harms cohesion.

With the GOP needing to support centrist candidates in swing districts in order to get back closer to power in 2010, this may just be the tip of the iceberg on a growing establishment/movement schism:

“I don’t think this is an NRCC problem. This is a much broader Republican problem,” the [anonymous] conservative lawmaker added. “The inability of the Republican coalition to coalesce is going to be a huge challenge for us in 2010.”‘

RaceTracker: NY-23

It sounds like Christie Vilsack may have been the mystery candidate who was poised to give Chuck Grassley the race of his life. Vilsack, wife to former Governor and current Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, told WHO-TV that she’s strongly considering the race, although not fully committed yet:

“I am honored that people would think of me in that way and would talk to me about running for any office and I think I’m well-qualified to run,” Vilsack said.  “I think I’m qualified to serve, so time will tell.”

Vilsack isn’t ready to jump in the race just yet – and she’s giving herself enough room to decide not to run.

Although Vilsack hasn’t held office herself before, she’d bring name recognition and Beltway connections to the race, putting it squarely on the map for next year — especially in view of the nosedive in Grassley’s approvals in the wake of his health care obstructionism. (H/t Taegan.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IA-Sen

• CO-Sen, CO-07: An interesting move in Colorado, where Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier dropped his Senate bid (which was plausible when other Republicans weren’t interested in the race, but relegated to longshot status when his fundraising stalled and ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton got into the field). Instead, he’ll be getting into the CO-07 race against sophomore Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter. In some ways, that’ll be a harder general election — at D+4, the 7th is more Democratic than the state as a whole, and Perlmutter got 63% in his 2008 re-election — but this way he’ll at least make it into the general election, which will help raise the 32-year-old Frazier’s profile for future efforts.

• CT-Sen: How sadly transparent a play to the party’s base is this? Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who in the two years prior to his 2006 defeat was the 5th most liberal Republican in the House, is now a teabagger. He says he’s attached an actual bag of tea to his pocket copy of the Constitution.

• FL-Sen: In an effort to have no more George LeMieuxs, there’s a bipartisan effort afoot in the Florida state legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies in Florida will be filled by fast special election rather than by appointment. State Sen. Paula Dockery, who may be running for Governor soon, is the Republican co-sponsor.

• IL-Sen: David Hoffman, the former Inspector General of Chicago (and frequent monkeywrench in that city’s machine), has released an internal poll showing that state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while starting with a sizable lead, doesn’t have a mortal lock on the Democratic Senate nomination. Hoffman’s poll finds Giannoulias at 26%, with former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson at 12 and Hoffman at 7, leaving 55% undecided. On the GOP side of the aisle, Mark Kirk continues to shuffle to the right as he faces some competition in his own primary: he continues to defend his flip-flop on the cap-and-trade vote that he voted for in the House and would vote against in the Senate, but also says that he’d keep in place the military’s Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy, saying “Keeping that all out of the workplace makes common sense.”

• MA-Sen: In case there was any doubt AG Martha Coakley was running under the mantle of the establishment’s candidate, she unleashed a torrent of endorsements yesterday, including about half of the state legislature (78 representatives and 16 senators, including both chambers’ leaders), as well as many mayors and labor unions.

• MO-Sen: Joe Biden continues to ramp up his fundraising efforts on behalf of 2010 candidates; he’ll be appearing at a Robin Carnahan fundraiser in St. Louis tomorrow. And on Friday, he’ll appear in Nevada with Harry Reid to tout the stimulus.

• NV-Sen, Gov: On the off chance that John Ensign decides to spare us all the embarrassment and resign before 2010, Gov. Jim Gibbons says that he wouldn’t appoint former AG Brian Sandoval to the job (despite that getting Sandoval out of the way would make his own chances of surviving the gubernatorial primary somewhat better). Gibbons also says he wouldn’t appoint himself (since that would just mean likely defeat in the primary in the ensuing 2010 special election).

• OH-Sen: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher picked up an endorsement from Rep. John Boccieri of the Canton-area 16th District today. Boccieri joins Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson in endorsing Fisher in the Dem primary; the remaining six Dems in the state’s delegation haven’t picked sides yet.

• OR-Gov: Not one but three possible new entrants in the Oregon gubernatorial race, although I can’t see any of them getting anywhere. On the Dem side, former Hewlett-Packard executive Steve Shields says he’ll announce on Thursday that he’s getting into the Democratic primary field. He wasn’t at the Carly Fiorina levels of management (which, uh, may actually be a good thing) and doesn’t bring a personal fortune to the race, but he has hired some pricey staffers already. On the GOP side, very large, very slow, very white former Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley is interested in the race (after having declined the NRCC to run in OR-05). No one is sure where exactly he fits in ideologically in the GOP; at any rate, here’s hoping he’s a better campaigner than he was a free throw shooter. And out on the left, Jerry Wilson, the founder of Soloflex, is going to run under the Oregon Progressive Party banner. If the general were likely to be closer, a third-party lefty with his own money would seem threatening, but so far, with John Kitzhaber in, the race isn’t shaping up to be close.

• VA-Gov: Al Gore will be appearing on Creigh Deeds’ behalf on Friday, although it’ll be at a private fundraiser and not a public appearance.

• FL-08: With the surprising decision of former state Sen. Daniel Webster to beg off from facing Rep. Alan Grayson, all of a sudden the floodgates have opened — and not in the way you’d expect. Prospective candidates are now actively running away from the race, starting with state Rep. Steve Precourt, who was supposed to be Plan D but said he won’t run and will go for re-election to his state House seat instead. This was followed by wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who had previously gotten into the race and promised to spend $200,000 of his own money, but then mysteriously dropped out yesterday. Another rumored rich guy, Tim Seneff, already begged off last week — which means that 28-year-old real estate developer and South Florida transplant Armando Gutierrez Jr. may be the last GOPer standing — and even he sounds like he’s having problems launching his campaign. What kind of mysterious powers does Alan Grayson have here? (Well, other than many millions of his own money and a willingness to spend it…)

• FL-19: It’s been revealed that Rep. Robert Wexler’s new job will not be in the Obama administration, but rather as president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. The special election date won’t be set until Wexler’s resignation has been made official, though.

• IN-02: It’s official: state Rep. “Wacky” Jackie Walorski will be taking on Rep. Joe Donnelly in the 2nd, bringing the full might of the teabaggers’ movement down upon him.

• IN-08: Also in Indiana, the Republicans lined up a challenger to Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who’s gotten more than 60% of the vote in both his elections in this Republican-leaning seat. Larry Bucshon, a surgeon, is a political novice, but would seem to bring his own money to the race.

• NV-03: In Nevada’s 3rd, it looks like former state Sen. Joe Heck won’t have the Republican primary field to himself. Real estate investor Rob Lauer is getting in the race and says he’ll invest $100K of his own money in the campaign.

• NY-23: Politico has some encouraging dirt on the special election in the 23rd: Republican Dede Scozzafava is dangerously low on cash, and that’s largely because the RNC has declined to get involved in the race. Scozzafava has spent only $26K on TV ads and recently had to pull down an ad in the Syracuse market; by contrast, Dem Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman have spent $303K and $124K on TV, respectively. (Discussion underway in conspiracy‘s diary.) Adding further fuel to the GOP/Conservative split is that Mike Huckabee will be appearing in Syracuse to address the NY Conservative Party. Huckabee hasn’t actually endorsed Hoffman, but the timing can’t exactly be a coincidence.

• NY-29: This slipped through the cracks over the weekend; after a cryptic e-mail that led to some hyperventilating about whether Eric Massa wouldn’t run for re-election, he announced at a press conference on the 10th that, yes, in fact, he will be back. Massa faces a challenge in 2010 from Corning mayor Tom Reed.

• ME-Init: A poll from PanAtlantic SMS points to the anti-gay marriage Question 1 in Maine going down to defeat (meaning that gay marriage would survive). With gay advocacy groups learning from their California mistakes last year and going on the offensive with ads this time, the poll finds the proposition losing 52-43.

• Legislatures: Democrats lost two legislative seats in special elections last night, a state House seat in Tennessee and a state House seat in Oklahoma. It’s a bigger deal in Tennessee, where Dem Ty Cobb widely lost to GOPer Pat Marsh in his effort to succeed his brother (losing 4,931 to 3,663); the GOP now holds a 51-48 numeric edge in the House, although it sounds like the Dems will keep controlling the chamber for now. In Oklahoma, Republican Todd Russ won with 56% en route to picking up a seat left vacant by a Democratic resignation, moving the GOP’s edge in the state House to 61-39. Both were rural districts with Democratic registration edges but extremely Republican tilts as of late, where historic Democratic downballot advantages are drying up.

• NYC: After looking kind of vulnerable in the previous SurveyUSA poll, mayor Michael Bloomberg bounced back in yesterday’s poll. He leads Democratic city comptroller William Thompson, 55-38.

• King Co. Exec: Also from SurveyUSA, a troubling look at the King County Executive Race, where the stealth Republican candidate Susan Hutchison leads Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine, 47-42. This is the first time county executive has been a nonpartisan race, and you’ve gotta wonder how many people are unaware of Hutchison’s Republican past (for her to be polling this well in such a blue county, it would seem that she picked up a fair number of votes from suburban moderate Dems who voted for state Sen. Fred Jarrett or state Rep. Ross Hunter in the primary and who may be loath to see another Seattlite like Constantine get the job). This race, to be decided in November, may be something of a canary in the coal mine, as it puts to the test the seemingly new Republican strategy of running blonde 50-something women with little partisan track record, having them steer clear of social conservatism and mostly focus on anti-tax platitudes (as seen in NV-Sen and CO-Sen, and NH-Sen as well if you disregard the “blonde” part).

• AZ-Sen: Does the persistent rumor of a J.D. Hayworth primary challenge to John McCain boil down to nothing more than a Hayworth grudge against former key McCain aide Mark Salter (and thus a way for Hayworth to keep yanking McCain’s chain)? That’s what the Arizona Republic is proposing, pointing to a 2005 dust-up between Hayworth and Salter over immigration reform. Hayworth, for his part, says that “spite” would never fuel a primary bid.

• IL-Sen: GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is touting an internal poll taken for him by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies that has him beating Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in a Senate head-to-head, 42-35. It also shows Kirk in strong shape in the primary, leading developer Patrick Hughes (who seems to be cornering the wingnut vote) 61-3.

• KY-Sen: The allegedly third tape (although nobody seems to remember what the second one was) involving Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo trashing his boss (and one of his few endorsers), Gov. Steve Beshear, has surfaced. This time, Mongiardo says people he talks to want to “yell” about Beshear and says, “It’s like being married to a whore.” This time it popped up directly on YouTube instead of on a Rand Paul fan blog.

• NV-Sen: Markos has an interesting observation, that may give some comfort to the Reid boys as they face an onslaught of bad polls. Democrats now have a registration edge of nearly 100,000 in Nevada, and it’s growing: since February, Dems have added 4,860 while the GOP has added 1,549. In fact, this sad performance puts the GOP fourth, as both nonpartisan registration and the right-wing Independent American Party gained more new registrants.

• PA-Sen (pdf): One more poll from Dane & Associates via GrassrootsPA, and it gives narrow edges to both Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak over Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey in the 2010 Senate race (46-43 for Specter and 43-38 for Sestak). Worth noting: this is only the second poll (after that freaky Rasmussen poll in August) that shows Sestak performing better against Toomey than does Specter.

• TX-Sen, Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison may be getting some cold feet about committing to a resignation date from the Senate. In response to questions on a conservative radio talk show, it’s sounding like she’s unlikely to resign her seat by year’s end. However, she also doesn’t sound like she’ll stay in her seat all the way through to the gubernatorial primary election in March, saying “that’s not what [she wants] to do.” (Although it’s understandable she may want to keep her day job if the whole being-governor thing doesn’t work out.)

• NJ-Gov: PPP has its poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race out, and like everyone else these days, they’re seeing it as pure tossup. Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 40-39, with 13 for independent Chris Daggett. (It’s right in line with today’s Pollster.com average of 41-40 for Christie.)That’s tremendous progress for Corzine, who was down 44-35-13 last month. Also, it’s worth noting that not only is Corzine dragging Christie down to his level but he’s actually starting to improve his own favorables; he’s up to 37/55, still terrible but better than last month’s 32/60. The race will still depend on getting unlikely Dem voters to turn out; the likely voter pool went for Obama by only 4% last year, way off from the actual 15% margin. One last tidbit: the poll asks Daggett voters their second choice, and Christie wins that one 48-34 (suggesting that Daggett does more damage to Christie, but that Christie’s best hope is to peel off some of the vacillating Daggett supporters).

• VA-Gov: Not much change in Virginia, where Rasmussen finds a 50-43 lead for Republican Bob McDonnell in that gubernatorial race. (This is right in line with today’s Pollster.com average of 51-43.) Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found that McD led Creigh Deeds 51-42.

• FL-08: This seems kind of surprising, given freshman Rep. Alan Grayson’s over-the-top invitations to rumble (or who knows… maybe being aggressive actually works to cow Republicans?). After a lot of public vacillating, it turns out that Republican former state Sen. Daniel Webster, considered the strongest contender to go up against Grayson, won’t run. Rich guys Jerry Pierce and Armando Gutierrez Jr. are in the race, but the establishmenet Plan D (with Webster, state House speaker Larry Cretul, and Orange Co. Mayor Rich Crotty out) seems likely to fall to state Rep. Stephen Precourt, who expressed interest but said he’d defer to Webster.

• NC-11: Looks like businessman Jeff Miller declined for a good reason yesterday, as the GOP nailed down a stronger-sounding competitor to go up against Rep. Heath Shuler in the R+6 11th. Greg Newman, the mayor of Hendersonville (pop. 10,000 in 2000) since 2005, says he’ll take on Shuler.

• SC-05: State Sen. Mick Mulvaney looks ready to launch his candidacy, most likely on the 17th at a GOP gathering in the district. He’ll take on 27-year incumbent and House Budget chair John Spratt.

• TN-St. House: There’s a small House special election in Tennessee tonight, with big stakes. HD 62, located in rural south central Tennessee (its major town is Shelbyville) was vacated by a Democrat, Curt Cobb, who resigned to take a better-paying job; Cobb’s brother Ty is facing off against Republican Pat Marsh. It’s GOP leaning territory, though (this is part of the 6th CD, which had a very sharp Democratic falloff in 2008). The stakes are high because the Democrats hold the chamber by a 1-vote margin, 50-49, thanks only to a power-sharing arrangement with renegade Republican Kent Williams who serves as the Speaker elected with Democratic votes. A Republican victory here could give control of the House back to the GOP, if they’re able to reorganize in midterm. If the Republicans can control the state House and pick up the governor’s office in 2010, they’ll control the resdistricting trifecta.

• Mayors: One other election on the docket in Tennessee tonight Thursday: Shelby Co. Mayor A.C. Wharton is looking likely to become the new mayor in Memphis. Polling has him leading Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery by a wide margin. (There are 25 candidates in the race, including professional wrestler Jerry Lawler.) The mayoral job was vacated, of course, by long-time mayor Willie Herenton, who after several abortive attempts to resign in the past is leaving to challenge Rep. Steve Cohen in a primary.

With the 2008 American Community Survey data finally available broken down by congressional district, last week I started out by looking at how districts’ population had changed between the 2000 census and the 2008 estimate. Today, I’m delving a little deeper, looking at how the racial composition of the districts has changed.

Let’s start with the districts where the change in non-Hispanic whites has been the greatest. I’m starting with the greatest percentage loss in white population — and unlike the other charts I’m creating today, I’m extending this one to 25 spots and including presidential election data, because, for our purposes, this may be the most interesting and important chart. Not coincidentally, the districts that had the biggest percentage drops in non-Hispanic white population from 2000-2008 also had some of the most profound electoral shifts from 2000-2008.

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change	2000 election	2008 election
GA-07	Linder (R)	476,346	630,511	75.5	529,284	901,363	58.7	-16.8	31/69	39/60
GA-13	D. Scott (D)	295,107	629,403	46.9	236,807	785,643	30.1	-16.7	57/43	71/28
TX-22	Olson (R)	394,651	651,657	60.6	416,608	873,878	47.7	-12.9	33/67	41/58
CA-25	McKeon (R)	363,792	638,768	57.0	362,083	819,973	44.2	-12.8	42/56	49/48
CA-11	McNerney (D)	408,785	639,625	63.9	412,398	802,588	51.4	-12.5	45/53	54/44
FL-19	Wexler (D)	494,890	638,503	77.5	479,411	733,322	65.4	-12.1	73/27	65/34
IL-03	Lipinski (D)	445,179	653,292	68.1	384,898	684,703	56.2	-11.9	58/40	64/35
TX-24	Marchand (R)	415,842	651,137	63.9	402,111	772,580	52.0	-11.8	32/68	44/55
TX-10	McCaul (R)	431,992	651,523	66.3	522,558	955,363	54.7	-11.6	34/67	44/55
FL-20	Wasserman-Schultz (D)	426,891	639,795	66.7	376,936	672,717	56.0	-10.7	69/31	63/36
NV-03	Titus (D)	459,756	665,345	69.1	566,630	966,577	58.6	-10.5	49/48	55/43
TX-05	Hensarling (R)	466,321	651,919	71.5	449,229	733,117	61.3	-10.3	34/66	36/63
TX-07	Culberson (R)	439,217	651,682	67.4	429,249	751,034	57.2	-10.2	31/69	41/58
VA-11	Connolly (D)	430,091	643,582	66.8	432,337	758,422	57.0	-9.8	45/52	57/42
CA-10	vacant	417,008	638,238	65.3	386,575	696,175	55.5	-9.8	55/41	65/33
FL-12	Putnam (R)	461,239	640,096	72.1	488,712	782,178	62.5	-9.6	45/55	49/50
CA-22	McCarthy (R)	426,192	638,514	66.7	440,149	768,635	57.3	-9.5	33/64	38/60
AZ-03	Shadegg (R)	503,584	640,898	78.6	508,259	734,739	69.2	-9.4	43/55	42/57
CA-03	Lungren (R)	474,940	639,374	74.3	508,886	784,306	64.9	-9.4	41/55	49/49
TX-06	Barton (R)	430,223	651,691	66.0	443,892	783,790	56.6	-9.4	34/66	40/60
FL-15	Posey (R)	497,676	639,133	77.9	541,878	790,487	68.5	-9.3	46/54	48/51
TX-03	S. Johnson (R)	412,291	651,782	63.3	456,634	845,481	54.0	-9.2	30/70	42/57
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	400,668	662,203	60.5	380,676	741,163	51.4	-9.1	57/41	65/33
NJ-07	Lance (R)	511,737	647,269	79.1	477,114	682,187	69.9	-9.1	48/49	51/48
CA-13	Stark (D)	244,693	638,708	38.3	189,167	647,397	29.2	-9.1	67/30	74/24

Almost all of these districts moved sharply in the Democrats’ direction. The only exceptions are AZ-03, explainable by the McCain favorite son effect in 2008, and FL-19 and FL-20, where the largely elderly and Jewish populations were more amenable to Gore/Lieberman than they were to Obama. (Also worth noting; there has been a lot of middle-class Cuban movement to the suburban parts of the 20th.)

Much more over the flip…

If you were to look at the drop in white population in terms of raw numbers, though, you’d get a very different impression. The 10 districts that had the biggest drops are predominantly the Rust Belt white-majority urban districts that were on the list of overall biggest population losses, starting with MI-12 (from 540,548 whites to 458,036), followed by PA-14, OH-10, NJ-09, IN-07, IL-03, GA-13, TN-09, PA-01, and CA-13. GA-13 is the exception here, where there’s some outright white flight going on in a fast-growing district, as Atlanta’s southern exurbs turn into black-majority terrain.

Now let’s take a look at the districts with the biggest white gain, in percentage terms (this time in more abbreviated form):

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
NY-15	Rangel (D)	106,664	654,355	16.3	147,570	671,752	22.0	5.7
NY-11	Clarke (D)	140,595	654,134	21.5	175,014	663,042	26.4	4.9
IL-07	D. Davis (D)	178,144	653,521	27.3	195,024	629,923	31.0	3.7
GA-05	Lewis (D)	216,674	629,438	34.4	257,072	676,513	38.0	3.6
NY-12	Velazquez (D)	150,673	653,346	23.1	180,824	681,862	26.5	3.5
HI-02	Hirono (D)	168,999	640,927	27.9	202,657	647,661	31.3	3.4
NY-10	Towns (D)	106,746	655,668	16.3	135,213	697,685	19.4	3.1
NY-14	Maloney (D)	432,312	654,165	66.1	451,277	654,566	68.9	2.9
CA-29	Schiff (D)	248,857	638,899	39.0	273,625	655,941	41.7	2.8
MI-14	Conyers (D)	213,120	662,468	32.2	206,024	591,652	34.8	2.7

While you might initially expect to see exurbs on this list, they aren’t, by percentage terms, getting whiter (quite the contrary, in most places). Instead, this list mostly shows the effects of regentrification in already-expensive cities, especially in the close-in parts of New York’s outer boroughs. The only exceptions here are HI-02, which seems to be seeing more white retirees, and MI-14, which no one would accuse of regentrifying right now, but where apparently the white suburban portions aren’t depopulating as fast as Detroit proper. (Wondering who’s #11? The district I would have expected to be at #1: LA-02, which experienced some rather abrupt regentrification of its own.)

Also worth noting: contrary to what one might expect, these whitening districts aren’t become less liberal. They all saw an improvement from Gore’s 2000 numbers to Obama’s 2008 numbers (despite the fact that their 2000 numbers, in most districts, were already up in the 80s), mostly because of increased minority turnout in 2008, but also because the early waves of gentrifiers are people who are already quite disposed toward voting Democratic.

Instead, you see the fast-growing exurbs if you look at the districts with the largest white population gain by raw numbers. Not coincidentally, this list heavily overlaps with the list of the biggest overall gainers we looked at in my previous post: AZ-02 (which went from 502,961 whites to 692,633), AZ-06, FL-05, UT-03, ID-01, CO-06, NC-09, NV-03, GA-09, and TX-26. The biggest overall gainers that aren’t on this list are TX-10, which has seen mostly Hispanic growth, and GA-07, which is seeing a lot of African-American growth.

In fact, that’s a good transition point to the districts that had the largest African-American growth, in percentage terms:

District	Rep.	2000 black	2000 total	2000 %	2008 black	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
GA-13	D. Scott (D)	255,455	629,403	40.6	419,235	785,643	53.4	12.8
GA-07	Linder (R)	72,962	630,511	11.6	188,302	901,363	20.9	9.3
MI-12	Levin (D)	77,403	662,559	11.7	117,172	621,619	18.8	7.2
IL-02	J. Jackson (D)	403,522	654,078	61.7	427,990	630,933	67.8	6.1
MD-02	Ruppersberger (D)	178,860	661,945	27.0	228,632	699,352	32.7	5.7
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	198,420	662,203	30.0	263,487	741,163	35.6	5.6
FL-19	Wexler (D)	37,821	638,503	5.9	81,258	733,322	11.1	5.2
MI-11	McCotter (R)	23,456	662,505	3.5	63,666	737,189	8.6	5.1
MO-01	Clay (D)	307,715	621,497	49.5	323,769	594,535	54.5	4.9
GA-03	Westmoreland (R)	119,766	630,052	19.0	189,706	795,402	23.9	4.8

The main story here seems to be African-Americans moving out of the cities and into the suburbs. It’s most pronounced in the Atlanta area, where, interestingly, Atlanta itself is becoming whiter (see GA-05 above), while much of the suburban growth is driven by African-Americans. It’s also quite noticeable in the Detroit area, where there’s a lot of fleeing Detroit’s economic ruins across the city lines into the adjacent 11th and 12th.

The list isn’t much different if you go purely by African-American numeric gains. The big gainers are: GA-13, GA-07, GA-03, MD-05, NC-09, MD-02, TX-22, TX-10, GA-11, and FL-19. The exceptions tend to be growth engines like NC-09 and TX-10 where a lot of everybody is moving there.

Now let’s look at the districts with the largest decrease in African-American population, percentagewise:

District	Rep.	2000 black	2000 total	2000 %	2008 black	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
IL-07	D. Davis (D)	402,714	653,521	61.6	334,138	629,923	53.0	-8.6
CA-09	Lee (D)	164,903	639,426	25.8	125,043	623,814	20.0	-5.7
CA-35	Waters (D)	216,467	638,851	33.9	187,110	664,849	28.1	-5.7
LA-02	Cao (R)	407,138	639,048	63.7	273,006	469,262	58.2	-5.5
GA-05	Lewis (D)	350,940	629,438	55.8	342,289	676,513	50.6	-5.2
NY-11	Clarke (D)	379,017	654,134	57.9	358,753	663,042	54.1	-3.8
NY-15	Rangel (D)	198,915	654,355	30.4	183,251	671,752	27.3	-3.1
IL-01	Rush (D)	424,430	654,203	64.9	383,734	620,843	61.8	-3.1
MD-04	Edwards (D)	374,755	661,651	56.6	364,985	679,854	53.7	-3.0
CA-33	Watson (D)	189,855	638,655	29.7	175,150	651,169	26.9	-2.8

This list, not so different from the list of white-gaining regentrifiying districts. There are also some districts where Hispanics are replacing blacks (CA-09, CA-35, and maybe counterintuitively, MD-04).

In terms of raw numbers, the biggest African-American drop in population is, no surprise, LA-02 (from 407,138 to 273,006), followed by IL-07, MI-13, MI-14, PA-02, IL-01, CA-09, CA-35, OH-11, and NY-11. (This includes districts like MI-13 and OH-11 where everyone of all races is leaving, at an equal rate.)

Now let’s turn to the largest percentage increases in Asian populations:

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
CA-15	Honda (D)	187,198	639,090	29.3	244,744	671,729	36.4	7.1
CA-13	Stark (D)	179,681	638,708	28.1	226,018	647,397	34.9	6.8
NY-06	Meeks (D)	60,954	654,946	9.3	101,454	686,631	14.8	5.5
NY-05	Ackerman (D)	159,491	654,253	24.4	198,345	669,591	29.6	5.2
CA-14	Eshoo (D)	102,430	639,953	16.0	138,389	653,246	21.2	5.2
CA-11	McNerney (D)	55,895	639,625	8.7	109,743	802,588	13.7	4.9
CA-48	Campbell (R)	80,095	638,848	12.5	121,002	721,557	16.8	4.2
VA-10	Wolf (R)	41,846	643,714	6.5	85,787	805,507	10.7	4.1
NJ-07	Lance (R)	52,965	647,269	8.2	83,234	682,187	12.2	4.0
TX-22	Olson (R)	50,459	651,657	7.7	102,261	873,878	11.7	4.0

There are two separate categories here: Democratic areas in the Bay Area (including CA-13, which between 2000 and 2008 moved from a white plurality to an Asian plurality) and Queens, and traditionally Republican districts in affluent suburbs — all of which, except for NJ-07, experienced a significant fall-off in Republican numbers in 2008.

In terms of biggest gains by the raw numbers, the biggest Asian gains were in CA-15 (a gain of 57,000), CA-11, TX-22, CA-13, VA-10, TX-03, WA-08, NV-03, CA-48, and GA-07. TX-03, NV-03, and GA-07 are all high on the list of districts with the greatest white losses by percentage, and while WA-08 is still pretty white, it’s a district that’s nevertheless trending in our direction as well.

There are very few districts that are losing Asian populations, either in percentage or raw numbers, so it doesn’t really merit another table. The biggest losers by percentage are HI-01 (-3.7%, from 53.5 to 49.8 — with the replacements pretty evenly distributed among whites, Hispanics, and “two or more races,” which is a huge category in Hawaii compared with the rest of the nation), HI-02, MN-05, TX-09, GA-04, WA-07, CA-18, TX-29, and LA-03. The biggest losers by raw numbers are MN-05 (31,780 to 23,662, presumably indicating Minneapolis’s large Hmong population moving out to the suburbs), HI-01, HI-02, GA-04, TX-09, WA-07, LA-03, TX-29, TX-11, and MI-13.

Finally, let’s look at the districts with the biggest percentage-wise gains among Hispanics:

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
IL-03	Lipinski (D)	139,268	653,292	21.3	228,215	684,703	33.3	12.0
CA-25	McKeon (R)	174,193	638,768	27.3	308,659	819,973	37.6	10.4
TX-32	Sessions (R)	235,626	650,555	36.2	306,290	669,328	45.8	9.5
CA-41	Lewis (R)	150,076	639,935	23.5	250,428	760,575	32.9	9.5
TX-29	G. Green (D)	430,890	651,405	66.2	518,208	686,198	75.5	9.4
CA-22	McCarthy (R)	133,571	638,514	20.9	231,717	768,635	30.1	9.2
TX-05	Hensarling (R)	83,113	651,919	12.7	157,312	733,117	21.5	8.7
AZ-04	Pastor (D)	372,365	641,430	58.1	502,458	753,506	66.7	8.6
FL-20	Wasserman-Schultz (D)	132,575	639,795	20.7	196,465	672,717	29.2	8.5
CA-52	Hunter (R)	88,273	639,329	13.8	144,579	663,810	21.8	8.0

As you can see, there are some solidly Democratic districts on this list — although some of them have Anglo Representatives who may have to be on their toes for a primary (though IL-03’s Dan Lipinski, targeted by the netroots in 2008, is pretty well machine-protected, and Gene Green sits in TX-29, the district with the lowest turnout in the nation). The rest are Republican-held, and while some have moved sharply in the Democratic direction in the most recent cycle (CA-25, TX-32), others have had only lackluster movement (TX-05 and CA-41). My best guess as to this disparity is that in CA-25 and TX-32, white people seem to be actively leaving, draining the pool of Republican voters, while CA-41 is seeing growth across the boards. Also, bear in mind that Hispanic growth is a slow-moving tidal wave, one that will take a long time to bear fruit (as many are either too young to vote or on the path to citizenship), so it seems likely that, say, Pete Sessions will survive till the next round of redistricting, when he can probably get his hands on a nice safer district with a center of gravity outside of Dallas proper, up in Collin County.

The biggest districts for Hispanic growth in raw numbers tend to be the big, fast-growing suburban/exurban districts with the biggest overall growth, starting with the Cuban-majority FL-25 (398,986 to 565,866). It’s followed by CA-45, AZ-07, CA-25, TX-10, AZ-04, TX-28, CA-44, AZ-02, and NV-03.

Even more so than with Asians, very few districts have experienced any Hispanic losses, either in terms of population or raw numbers. 11 districts had a loss in percentage, and 11 had a loss in actual population (although, interestingly, they aren’t entirely the same 11, as, for instance, in shrinking districts, Hispanics may have lost population at a slower rate than the population at large). The losers in terms of percentage are NY-12 (-3.5%, from 48.7 to 45.2, thanks largely to white regentrification of areas like Williamsburg), NY-15, IL-04, CA-31, CA-08, NY-14, CA-29, NY-08, NY-10, OH-06, and GA-02. The losers in terms of raw numbers are IL-04 (486,839 to 442,423, again indicative of regentrification, as well as a lot of moves either to IL-03 or to DuPage and Kane Counties), CA-31, NY-15, NY-12, NY-14, CA-53, OH-11, OH-06, CA-08, MI-05, and GA-02.

Whew! That’s a lot of data to digest, of course. But the takeaway is clear across the boards: districts where white populations are shrinking and/or minority populations are growing, are mostly seeing Democratic gains. Districts where white populations are growing and/or minority populations are shrinking, on the other hand, still managed to see Democratic gains in 2008. The districts where Republicans actually gained ground in 2008 are mostly in areas where there isn’t much population growth and isn’t much change in the racial composition (mostly rural areas, especially following the line of the Appalachians and Ozarks, but you could also say that same thing about, say, western Pennsylvania or Long Island).

• CO-Sen: Here’s an amateur-level mistake from the Bennet campaign: electioneering in the Denver public schools (where Michael Bennet used to be Supernintendo before being appointed Senator). The campaign sent mailings to a school asking for the principal’s support and fliers were given to principals at a district workshop.

• FL-Sen: The Kendrick Meek campaign is touting its own fishy poll that says that Meek leads Charlie Crist… among voters who know both of them. The lead is 45-43 for Meek among those 25% of the sample who know who the heck Meek is. In the larger sample, Crist is up 47-31.

• KS-Sen: Kansas Senate news three digests in a row? I’m as surprised as you are. Anyway, retired advertising executive and journalist Charles Schollenberger confirmed that he will run for the Senate. With seemingly no Dems higher up the totem pole interested in the race, Schollenberger may wind up carrying the flag.

• NC-Sen: It’s not quite confirmed, but the rumor mill is churning up stories that youthful former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham is moving to formally jump into the North Carolina Senate race. SoS Elaine Marshall is already in the Democratic primary field.

• PA-Sen: There’s an unexpected fourth Democratic participant in the Senate primary all of a sudden: Doris Smith-Ribner, a recently retired Commonwealth Court (which apparently is one of two intermediate appellate courts in Pennsylvania; don’t ask me why there are two) judge for two decades. Her presence could prove nettlesome to Rep. Joe Sestak, by eating a bit into his share of liberal anti-Arlen Specter votes in what’s likely to be a close primary. (“Fourth,” you say? State Rep. Bill Kortz is running too, and has been for many months.)

• AZ-Gov: He was probably seeing the same terrible polls that everyone else was, and ex-Governor Fife Symington decided to put the kibbosh on a gubernatorial comeback. Instead, Symington endorsed not the current Governor, Jan Brewer, but one of her minor opponents, former state GOP chair John Munger.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman scored a victory of sorts with the publication of a story titled “Meg Whitman’s voting record not as bad as originally portrayed.” It turns out she was registered at several points in California in the 1980s and 1990s, but there’s still no indication that she actually voted during this period.

Meanwhile, Whitman’s primary rival ex-Rep. Tom Campbell may get a big leg up: rumors persist that he may get picked as California’s new Lt. Governor (once John Garamendi gets elected to CA-10). I’d initially thought that was a way of scraping him out of the gubernatorial primary and giving him a door prize, but it could give him a higher profile and bully pulpit to compensate for his vast financial disadvantage as he stays in the race. Campbell was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Finance Director for a while, and they operate in the same centrist space, so maybe Ahnold would do him the favor? (Of course, he’d still have to survive confirmation by the Dem-controlled legislature, who might be reluctant to promote Campbell, who they rightly see as the most dangerous general election opponent.)

• FL-Gov: It had seemed like state Sen. Paula Dockery, who threatened repeatedly during the spring to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, had faded back into the woodwork. However, she’s front and center again today, saying that she’s “leaning toward” running and giving herself a three-week timeline (she put off the decision because of her husband’s surgery this summer). Another minor embarrassment for her primary opponent, AG Bill McCollum: the co-chair of his campaign, former state GOP chair Alex Cardenas, had to explain that, no, he didn’t actually host a fundraiser for Democratic rival Alex Sink. (It was hosted by Democratic partners in Cardenas’s lobbying firm.)

• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have sufficiently reduced each other’s statures that the state’s largest newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger, took what may be an unprecedented step, and endorsed the independent candidate in the race: Chris Daggett. I still can’t see this giving Daggett the momentum to break 20%, but more Daggett votes are good, as they seem to come mostly out of the Christie column. Meanwhile, Chris Christie got an endorsement he may not especially want in the blue state of New Jersey — from the Family Research Council (who also just endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election). Also, Christie is living large after getting an endorsement that may carry more weight, from the New Jersey Restaurant Association.

• VA-Gov (pdf): There’s one new poll of VA-Gov to report today: Mason-Dixon, and they come in with a 48-40 edge for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds, closely tracking today’s Pollster.com average of 51-43. The poll finds Deeds getting only 81% of the African-American vote (with 9% to McD), far too little, especially in combination with what PPP‘s Tom Jensen is seeing, as he teases that he’s projecting abysmal black turnout of 12% in the coming election. At any rate, Deeds is now touting his underdog status in fundraising e-mails, and is alluding to more possible visits from Barack Obama in the stretch run.

• FL-20: Here’s an understatement: Republican candidate Robert Lowry, hoping to defeat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in this D+13 district, conceded it was a “mistake” to shoot at a target labeled “DWS” while at a Southeast Republican Club gathering at a gun range.

• MN-06: As state Sen. Tarryl Clark seems to be building a fundraising and labor endorsement edge, her primary opponent for the Democratic nomination, Maureen Reed, says she won’t follow traditional decorum and abide by the DFL endorsement. Reed (a former member of the Independence Party) says she’ll keep open the option of taking the fight all the way to the primary, a reversal of her position from months earlier (although from before Clark got into the race and Elwyn Tinklenberg left). (UPDATE: The Reed campaign writes in to say that the Minnesota Public Radio story that underpins this story is incorrect and that Reed never stated whether or not she would abide by the DFL endorsement.)

• NC-11: One reddish southern district where the Republicans are still at square one on recruitment is the 11th. Businessman Jeff Miller said that he won’t challenge sophomore Dem Heath Shuler.

• NY-15: As ethics allegations take a toll against long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, he’s getting a primary challenge… from his former campaign director. Vince Morgan, now a banker, says “it’s time for a change.”

• OH-17: Republicans may have found someone to run in the 17th against Rep. Tim Ryan: businessman and Air Force vet Bill Johnson, who’s now exploring the race and will decide in December. Ryan probably isn’t too worried, as he’s won most of his races with over 75%, in this D+12 district.

• PA-04: Pennsylvania Western District US Attorney Mary Buchanan is reportedly considering running as a Republican against Dem sophomore Jason Altmire. (Hopefully she isn’t violating the Hatch Act too much while she considers it.) Buchanan was one of the USAs who weren’t fired in the Bush-era purge (in fact, she allegedly helped consult on the list of those who were fired). State House minority whip Mike Turzai has been reputed to be the GOP’s desired recruit here, but Buchanan’s flack says that Turzai is focused on winning back GOP control of the state House in 2010 instead.

• PA-11: Attorney and hedge fund manager Chris Paige is the first Republican to take on Paul Kanjorski (or Corey O’Brien, if Kanjorski goes down in the Dem primary). Still no word on whether Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta is interested in yet another whack at the race.

• Supreme Courts (pdf): News from two different state supreme court races? Sure, why not. In Pennyslvania, there’s another Dane & Associates poll out, of a hotly contested 2010 race for a state supreme court seat; Democrat Jack Panella leads Republican Joan Orie Melvin 38-35. Also, in Texas, Democrat Bill Moody, who came close to winning a seat in 2006 (better than any other Dem statewide candidate that year), will try again in 2010, and he has an interesting new campaign gimmick: he’s going to tour the state in a big orange blimp.

Field Poll (pdf) (9/18-10/6, likely voters, primary trendlines from March):

Carly Fiorina (R): 21 (31)

Chuck DeVore (R): 20 (19)

Undecided: 59 (50)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49

Carly Fiorina (R): 35

Undecided: 16

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50

Chuck DeVore (R): 33

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.2%)

With the exception of a Rasmussen sample from July, Barbara Boxer has been posting double-digit leads against her Republican opposition. Today’s release from the respected Field Poll is no exception; she beats former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by 14 and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore by 17. Boxer is hovering right around the safety zone of 50% — same with her approvals, which are 48/39 — but considering the approvals of her opponents (9/9 for DeVore, not well-known outside Orange County, and 12/16 for Fiorina, reviled in tech circles for her HP tenure) she’s looking pretty safe.

The more interesting part of the poll is the GOP primary, where the more conservative DeVore is starting to draw even with Fiorina. Based on trendlines from March, DeVore isn’t gaining so much as Fiorina is losing support to the “undecided” column, as she seems to be racing Meg Whitman to see whose campaign can implode first, what with Fiorina’s own tepid voting record and the universally-panned launch of her new website.

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