Author: Crisitunity

• MN-Sen: After the court-ordered opening of the 351 previously rejected absentee ballots, Al Franken’s lead just grew to 312 votes (up from 225 votes after the hand recount). Although the Minnesota Supreme Court still has to rule on some miscellaneous issues (the possibility of some double-counts), these questions affect fewer than 300 ballots, meaning that it is now mathematically impossible for Norm Coleman to prevail.

• RI-Gov: After backing off and saying he wouldn’t decide anything until May, it seems like Lincoln Chafee has turned around again and has officially formed his exploratory committee. He will be “putting together a plan that will lay the groundwork for an Independent campaign for governor in 2010.”

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter has come out firing against Pat Toomey’s likely primary challenge… and he’s already shooting blanks. He had to pull down and revise his attack ad for a factual error. He had accused Toomey of having traded credit default swaps while a Wall Street trader in the 80s (turns out CDSs hadn’t been invented yet at that point). Trying a new tack on today’s Morning Joe, Specter said that Toomey is too conservative to win statewide, accusing him of being “to the right of Rick Santorum.”

• AR-Sen: Looks like Wal-Mart may have sent Blanche Lincoln a cheap Chinese-made horse head for her bed. Lincoln, who supported the Employee Free Choice Act last time it came up, has announced she won’t be supporting it this time around, at least “in its current form.” Even if Franken gets seated and Specter flip-flops again, this probably defers EFCA until after 2010 (unless it passes in a gutted form).

• NV-Sen: John Ensign is making his first speaking appearance in Iowa later this spring. Signs of a presidential run? Possible, considering the paltry lot the GOP has on tap so far. This is of SSP interest primarily because Ensign is up for re-election in 2012 and would leave behind an open seat in this newly blue seat in order to run.

• IL-Sen: Big first-quarter haul for Treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias, the only announced candidate for IL-Sen so far. He pulled in $1.1 million, none of which was from corporate PACs.

• FL-Sen: When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that “I haven’t yet reviewed his work”. Sharp answer! (J)

• FL-Gov: Hey, pallie – you better watch it! Charles Bronson says he’s going to run for governor of Florida if Charles Crist runs for the Senate. And you thought Charles Bronson was dead! Wrong again, pallie! (D)

• FL-02: State senator Al Lawson, who’s primarying Allen Boyd from the left, seems like he won’t be pulling punches in going after Boyd. Lawson (who’s said a few Blue Doggish things of his own in the past) says “From my perspective, a Blue Dog is just a closet Republican,” and is “committed to being a true Democrat.”

• LA-Legislature: There were three special elections in Louisiana legislative races over the weekend (a Democratic senate seat in Opelousas, a Democratic house seat in New Orleans, and a GOP house seat in Baton Rouge suburbs). Despite the GOP contesting all three seats, Democrats held the line in their two open seats (including one to replace Don Cravins, who’s moved to Washington). The candidates in both runoffs will be Democrats, meaning Dems will hold their 4-seat edge in the senate and 1-seat edge in the house.  

• IL-05: It’s special election day in the dark, dark blue 5th. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley faces off against GOP activist (and Minutewoman) Rosanna Pulido and a Green party candidate. In a big surprise, SSP will not be liveblogging the results.

• NY-20: Paper ballots to be recanvassed will be released after today’s court hearing. As of the end of the day on Friday, the state Board of Elections found the race was a true tie, with 77,225 votes apiece. These numbers didn’t account for two recanvasssed counties, which would give Scott Murphy a 198-vote lead for the time being, according to the New York Observer.

On a mostly unrelated note, the guy who could still be representing NY-20, John Sweeney, just got arrested for DWI over the weekend… for the second time in 17 months. He’s gotta learn to stay away from those frat parties.

• KY-Sen: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo pulled in a respectable-sized fundraising haul in Q1: $420,000. This may well beat opponent Jim Bunning, who has publicly admitted that his fundraising has been “lousy.”

• CT-Sen: The stink lines coming off Chris Dodd seem to be attracting even more challengers. Businessman Jack Orchulli, who got demolished by Dodd in 2004 (66-32), is suddenly looking for a rematch. He’ll face a crowded primary, though, but unlike ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and state sen. Sam Caligiuri, Orchulli can draw on deep pockets to self-finance. (If ex-Ambassador Tom Foley decides to get in, he’s also a potential self-financer.)

• IA-Gov, IA-Sen: A Des Moines register poll showed surprisingly low re-elect numbers for Gov. Chet Culver, who isn’t facing a top-tier challenge (yet). Only 35% said they would definitely re-elect, while 28% would consider an alternative and 18% definitely would not. (Sen. Chuck Grassley, by contrast, can plan on another six years if he wants; he’s already at 48% definitely re-elect.)

• AL-07: State representative Earl Hilliard Jr. announced he’ll be running for the open seat being vacated by Artur Davis, who’s running for Alabama governor. If the name sounds familiar, he’s the son of ex-Rep. Earl Hilliard, who was defeated in a 2002 primary from the right by Davis. He’ll have a name recognition advantage in a crowded field: attorney Terri Sewell is already running, and they may be joined by Jefferson Co. Commissioner Sheila Smoot, and state senators Rodger Smitherman, Bobby Singleton, and Hank Sanders. This is one of our best opportunities to replace a centrist with a progressive in a dark-blue district without primarying an incumbent.

• CA-32: A late entrant to the special election to replace Hilda Solis has an ace in the hole: she’s a former aide to Solis. Benita Duran launched her campaign website today. With the entry of another prominent Latino candidate to split the field, this may help Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu at the expense of state senator Gil Cedillo. Or, on the other hand, with the entry of another woman to split the field, this may work to Cedillo’s advantage.

• CO-04: Former State Senator and current Larimer County Commissioner Steve Johnson is said to be weighing a challenge to freshman Dem Betsy Markey. SSP’s analysis shows that McCain barely won this district, 50-49, after a 17-point Bush win in 2004. (D)

• NY-19: After drawing a weak opponent in 2008, John Hall hopes he’ll be Still the One for NY-19 voters in the face of a stronger challenge in 2010. State assemblyman Greg Ball has formed an exploratory committee. Obama won this district by only 3 points (same as in NY-20), but Ball is a bomb-throwing conservative who seems out of step with the district’s Rockefeller Republican roots.

• OH-SoS: Ohio Dems have a strong candidate lined up to try and hold the crucial Secretary of State position, as current SoS Jennifer Brunner goes for the promotion to Senate: Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown. She’s likely to face GOP state senator (and former state house speaker) Jon Husted, who just announced his candidacy.

• DCCC: The DCCC is moving aggressively to target the 8 districts in California where Obama won but a GOP representative hangs on. A new study shows that GOP registration has dropped precipitously in these districts, so there may be something more significant going on in California suburbs than just a big one-time Obama downdraft.

Also on the DCCC front, the NY Times profiles Rep. Chris Murphy, a rising star who, with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, is heading the DCCC’s Frontline program for defense of vulnerable incumbents (mostly freshmen).

Quinnipiac (4/1-5, registered voters, 2/10-15 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 18 (23)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 61 (55)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 29 (24)

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33 (34)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (43)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (43)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 36 (37)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 40 (42)

Peter King (R): 28 (26)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

David Paterson, like Wall Street, seems to be searching for a bottom to his free-fall… and it doesn’t look like he’s found his yet. In February, Quinnipiac found that Paterson would get demolished in a Democratic primary matchup against Andrew Cuomo 55-23, a blowout by any standards. But now that same race has plunged even further, to a 61-18 gulf, to the extent that Cuomo would barely need a flick of his wrist to take out Paterson.

And while Paterson’s favorability and approval ratings weren’t terrible last time, they’ve bottomed out too. His favorability is at 27/55, while his approval rating is 28/60 (down from 45/41 in February). Not only do only 22% think he deserves to be re-elected (63% say no), but only 39% think he should even bother running in 2010, while 53% think he should announce now that he won’t be running. These numbers — especially the self-fulfilling prophecy built into that last set of numbers — are just the type you don’t recover from.

This poll also sees Paterson losing convincingly to Rudy Giuliani, a major change from the tied game seen in February. Giuliani, however, hasn’t taken any visible steps toward running; Rudy is probably looking to jump in only if Cuomo doesn’t get in, as this poll shows that Giuliani would be only a slightly bigger speed bump for Cuomo than Paterson would be. Speed bump honors instead seem likelier to fall to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, last seen running against Hillary Clinton in 2000. Lazio is exploring a candidacy and has been meeting with GOP powers-that-be upstate.

On the Senate side, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still struggling for name recognition, with a 24/11 favorable (with 64% still saying ‘haven’t heard enough’). She still trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (who has the advantage of being in the NYC media market) in a primary matchup, although it’s much closer than in February. It’s unclear, though, whether a matchup with McCarthy will ever happen; while McCarthy made the loudest noises at the outset, speculation lately has turned toward other NYC-area Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney. Given that Gillibrand, already noted for her fundraising prowess, just released numbers showing that she raised $2.3 million in the first quarter, she may not draw any primary challengers at all.

Mason-Dixon for Sayfie Review/PowerPlay (3/30-4/1, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 35

Bill McCollum (R): 36

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems like not that long ago we were looking at a potential Florida senate race between CFO Alex Sink and AG Bill McCollum. With Gov. Charlie Crist sounding more and more like he’s moving to switch over to the Senate, causing the lower ranks on Florida’s political totem pole to gravitate over to the governor’s race, we may now be looking at a Sink/McCollum FL-Gov race instead, and that’s what Mason-Dixon just polled. (In fact, if those numbers look vaguely familiar to you, it’s because Quinnipiac did a head-to-head poll of a Sink/McCollum FL-Sen matchup in mid-January, and that poll also found McCollum 36, Sink 35!)

Mason-Dixon didn’t poll head-to-heads on a Crist-centered Senate race (either GOP primary or general). However, they did ask whether voters would “consider” voting for him, for which the answers were 17% definitely, 50% consider, and 26% definitely not. There is one note of caution for Crist here, though: he gets an 18% “definitely not” from Republicans (compared with a 35% “definitely not” from Democrats). That could point to a very competitive primary with a more orthodox conservative opponent. With former House speaker Marco Rubio intent on staying in the race and highlighting Crist’s stimulus-loving ways, it seems likely Rubio will be that opponent.

• NY-20: Jim Tedisco has moved into a 12-vote lead as the counties continue to engage in recanvassing of the lever-pull machines, which will continue next week. (Paper ballots are impounded at least until the scheduled court hearing on the 6th.)

In other news, Tedisco stepped down from his role as minority leader in the Assembly today. (That shouldn’t necessarily be seen as a sign of confidence in winning the election; he was facing a no-confidence vote from his caucus.)

• SD-Sen: The 2010 South Dakota senate race isn’t looking very fruitful for Dems, even in the unlikely event we run a top-tier recruit. (If Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin goes for a promotion, at this point she seems more interested in governor.) R2K polls SD for Daily Kos and finds that John Thune runs ahead of both ex-Sen. Tom Daschle, 53-40, and Herseth Sandlin, 51-39. All three have pretty good favorables; South Dakotans just seem to prefer to keep Thune where he is.

• CT-Sen: In the wake of yesterday’s terrible poll, a primary challenger to Chris Dodd has already popped out of the woodwork. Roger Pearson, the former First Selectman of Greenwich, has formed an exploratory committee. He seems little-known outside (or even inside) of Greenwich, but we’ll have to see if he can catch an anti-Dodd wave.

• AL-Gov: Looks like the Democratic primary for Governor is about to get pretty crowded; state Sen. Roger Bedford is now openly mulling a run, and the inside chatter appears that the controversial but powerful northern Alabama legislator is pretty serious about a bid.

Meanwhile, ArturD2 is kvetching like a five year-old over the probable entry of Ag Comm’r Ron Sparks into the race. (J)

• NH-Sen: Despite entreaties from the NRSC, Judd Gregg says he won’t seek re-election. Apparently, he wants to devote all his time to supporting the president’s agenda in the Senate. (D)

• CO-Sen: Appointed senator Michael Bennet pulled in startling fundraising numbers for the 1st quarter, raising $1.37 million. Bennet is facing a paltry field of GOPers so far (with ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez their best bet), so this may actually serve more to cause former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff to think twice about a primary challenge.

• AK-Sen: With charges dropped against Ted Stevens, Alaska GOP chair Rudy Reudrich wants a do-over on last year’s election. Gov. Sarah Palin also endorsed the idea, despite her taking an anti-Stevens stand in the closing weeks of the election. However, Rep. Don Young doesn’t support the idea, saying Mark Begich “will be in the Senate and will do a good job.” (In fact, Young has a totally different idea: Stevens should run for governor in 2010 against Palin.) Stevens’ friends in the Senate also seemed resigned to the election being over.

• RI-Gov: Ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee seemed to back off a bit from previous statements that he will be running for governor as an independent, saying that he will decide by May whether or not to run, once his current position (teaching at Brown) ends.

• Votes: Yesterday was the big vote in the House on the Obama budget. After a lot of public vacillation, even Joe Cao voted no, joining every other Republican. 20 Democrats voted no; it’s a who’s who of who’s vulnerable (with a few entrenched Blue Dogs joining them): Barrow, Boren, Bright, Childers, Donnelly, Foster, Griffith, Kosmas, Kratovil, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Perriello, Taylor, and Teague. The only ‘nay’ votes in districts won by Obama were John Barrow (who’s actually been fairly cooperative so far this session), Bill Foster (usually a good guy, but a deficit hawk), and Dennis Kucinich (who assumedly voted against the budget from the left for not containing enough magic ponies). In the Senate, a few hours later, Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson were the only defections.

• NASA: Here’s a guy we’re glad to see land on his feet: Nick Lampson, who used to represent NASA’s Houston-area facilities in TX-22, is now on the short list of potential NASA Administrators. Even Pete Olson, the guy who defeated Lampson, is advocating for Lampson.

• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he’s seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.

• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he’s out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter’s ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.

• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y’know, follow the rule of law)… or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he’ll need in 2012 if he’s going to have any hope in the presidential primary.

• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn’t buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it’s a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn’t be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).

• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is “considering” another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he’d have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there’s also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.

• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).

• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn’t yet decided how he’ll vote on the Democrats’ budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)

• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it’s a good pick. It’s Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census’s associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won’t be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).

Another topic in the slicing and dicing of our newly compiled presidential-election-by-congressional-district data: where are the split districts? In other words, which districts won by Obama have Republican representatives, and which districts won by McCain have Democratic representatives? (CQ already beat me to the punch on this particular question, but to give it a new spin, I’m arranging them in order of the districts’ three-way margin, which gives at least some relative sense of vulnerability.)

District	Republican	Obama Margin	District	Democrat	McCain Margin
LA-02	Cao	49.3	MS-04	Taylor	35.5
DE-AL	Castle	25.0	TX-17	C. Edwards	35.2
IL-10	Kirk	22.8	OK-02	Boren	31.2
PA-06	Gerlach	16.6	TN-04	L. Davis	29.8
WA-08	Reichert	14.8	AL-02	Bright	27.4
IL-06	Roskam	13.2	ID-01	Minnick	26.6
PA-15	Dent	12.4	TN-06	Gordon	25.3
IL-13	Biggert	9.6	LA-03	Melancon	24.0
MI-06	Upton	9.5	MS-01	Childers	23.5
NJ-02	Lo Biondo	9.3	AL-05	Griffith	22.9
MI-11	McCotter	9.2	MO-04	Skelton	22.7
IL-16	Manzullo	8.5	AR-01	Berry	20.3
IA-04	Latham	7.5	VA-09	Boucher	19.1
OH-12	Tiberi	7.5	AR-04	Ross	18.8
MI-08	Rogers	6.9	MD-01	Kratovil	18.5
VA-10	Wolf	6.8	UT-02	Matheson	18.1
MN-03	Paulsen	6.4	WV-01	Mollohan	15.3
NY-23	McHugh	5.2	WV-03	Rahall	13.5
CA-45	Bono Mack	4.6	GA-08	Marshall	13.4
CA-50	Bilbray	4.2	TN-08	Tanner	13.3
FL-10	Young	4.1	KY-06	Chandler	12.2
CA-26	Dreier	4.1	PA-04	Altmire	10.5
WI-01	Ryan	3.9	AZ-01	Kirkpatrick	10.2
NJ-07	Lance	3.5	AR-02	Snyder	9.9
CA-24	Gallegly	2.8	FL-02	Boyd	9.7
FL-18	Ros-Lehtinen	2.3	ND-AL	Pomeroy	8.6
MI-04	Camp	1.9	SD-AL	Herseth	8.4
VA-04	Forbes	1.5	PA-10	Carney	8.3
NE-02	Terry	1.2	SC-05	Spratt	7.2
WI-06	Petri	1.2	OH-18	Space	6.7
CA-25	McKeon	1.1	AZ-08	Giffords	5.9
CA-44	Calvert	0.9	NC-11	Shuler	5.6
CA-48	Campbell	0.7	NC-07	McIntyre	5.6
CA-03	Lungren	0.5	AZ-05	Mitchell	4.5
—	—	—	IN-08	Ellsworth	3.9
—	—	—	MN-07	C. Peterson	2.7
—	—	—	OH-06	C. Wilson	2.7
—	—	—	OH-16	Boccieri	2.6
—	—	—	CO-03	Salazar	2.5
—	—	—	PA-17	Holden	2.5
—	—	—	VA-05	Perriello	2.3
—	—	—	NY-29	Massa	2.2
—	—	—	FL-24	Kosmas	2.0
—	—	—	NY-13	McMahon	1.8
—	—	—	IN-09	Hill	1.8
—	—	—	NM-02	Teague	1.3
—	—	—	CO-04	Markey	0.9
—	—	—	PA-12	Murtha	0.4
—	—	—	PA-03	Dahlkemper	0.006

There’s a definite tilt in the playing field that happened with 2008, compared with 2004: there are 34 Obama/R districts and 49 McCain/D districts. In the aftermath of the 2004 election, there were 18 Kerry/R districts and 41 Bush/D districts. The numbers have moved not only because Obama picked up a number of suburban districts that previously resided in the R+5 area (especially in places like California and Michigan), but also because of some inroads we’ve made at getting Blue Dogs elected in districts that were dark red in both 2004 and 2008. (Remember how the disparity in Kerry/R and Bush/D districts was part of the “permanent Republican majority?” They were going to slowly pick off all those Bush/D districts while, of course, we picked off nothing and the presidential bar didn’t move, either.)

I don’t want to cause your eyes to fall out by printing the whole 2004 list, so here’s the top 10 in each category (worth seeing if only to see what a swath we’ve cut through the moderate Republicans in the last four years):

District	Republican	Kerry Margin	District	Democrat	Bush Margin
IA-02	Leach	11.5	TX-17	C. Edwards	39.7
CT-02	Simmons	9.7	MS-04	Taylor	37.2
DE-AL	Castle	7.6	UT-02	Matheson	34.7
IA-01	Nussle	6.5	MO-04	Skelton	29.0
PA-07	Weldon	6.1	ND-AL	Pomeroy	27.4
CT-04	Shays	6.1	SD-AL	Herseth	21.5
IL-10	Kirk	5.5	AL-05	Cramer	20.3
NH-02	Bass	5.0	VA-09	Boucher	20.2
FL-22	Shaw	4.9	TN-06	Gordon	20.0
PA-08	Fitzpatrick	3.4	OK-02	Boren	18.8

• Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we’ve just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)

• NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to “pull a Franken” and “steal” the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!

One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken’s lawyers aren’t available right now. And in Tedisco’s favor, Norm Coleman’s attorneys are busy, too.

The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they’re projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).

• AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens’ job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.

• CT-Sen: One more ‘oopsie’ for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He’s currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd’s Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She’s “seriously considering” entering the race against Barbara Boxer.

• OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP’s all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He’s declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver’s seat for the GOP nomination.

• TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)

• NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor’s office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she’s off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP’s sober, rational elder statesman?).

• History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.

As you probably know, it’s Election Day in the NY-20, where there’s a special election afoot to replace Kirsten Gillibrand. The most recent public poll gave a small lead to Democrat Scott Murphy, but this is a low-turnout special election in a district with a large GOP enrollment advantage, and ground game is going to make or break it for both parties.

Jim Tedisco actually pulled an all-nighter last night, glad-handing graveyard shift workers and convenience store clerks, but back in DC, John Boehner sounded a cautious, expectations-dampening note:

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said the outcome of the election shouldn’t be seen as a referendum on the GOP leadership in Congress.

“It’s between those two candidates in New York,” Boehner explained to reporters. “I hope Jim Tedisco wins.”

Before the November election, I put together some benchmarks to meet in major counties of what the minimum expectation in each county would be to get the Democratic candidate over the 50% mark. Thanks to our New York pres-by-congressional district database, we can perform the same sort of analysis for tonight. Barack Obama won NY-20 in November by a 51-48 margin, so we barely even need to adjust the numbers to find one potential route to victory for Murphy (assuming the counties vote in the same proportions they did in November):

County	% of 2008 districtwide vote	What we need to break 50% districtwide	2008 Pres.
Districtwide	100.0	50/49	51/48
Saratoga (pt.)	32.3	50/49	51/48
Dutchess (pt.)	15.0	52/47	53/46
Rennselaer (pt.)	9.8	48/51	49/50
Warren	9.7	50/49	51/48
Columbia	9.5	55/44	56/43
Washington	7.8	49/50	50/49
Greene	6.7	43/55	44/54
Delaware (pt.)	5.5	46/52	47/51
Essex (pt.)	2.0	54/44	55/43
Otsego (pt.)	1.7	47/52	48/51

Bear in mind, though, that these candidates have regional connections, so the actual numbers may vary a bit. For instance, Murphy is from Glens Falls in Warren County, and seems well-connected in the communities there (in fact, his gigantic extended family may make up several percent of the electorate there). Siena broke results down by region and showed Murphy polling well ahead of these benchmarks in Warren and Washington Counties (at 58%)… but the flipside is that he was lagging in Saratoga and Rennselaer Counties (at 43%). Saratoga (Albany’s northern suburbs) is the most populous part of the district, and it’s also Tedisco’s base. (Tedisco can’t actually vote for himself, being from Schenectady, but he represents part of Saratoga County in the Assembly.)

So, when watching results tonight, you may want to mentally adjust those counties accordingly. The real swing counties, and the ones requiring no adjustment, may be the ones further south in Hudson Valley (Columbia and Dutchess). Here’s a district map, for a bit more context: