Author: DavidNYC

10:43: Time for some more thread.

10:25PM: Shades of Florida 2000: Apparently, NBC has retracted its call on NYC-Mayor, but the NYT is still loud-n-proud. Bloombo’s lead has widended a bit, with three-quarters of the vote now reporting. But barring some late, wild changes, this is going to be a major story – how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.

10:21PM: Dems win a special election in Alabama, taking HD-65 by a 53-47 margin, which was quite a bit closer than expected.

10:17PM: Up in Maine, gay marraige is holding on by 51-49 with 22% in.

10:16PM: With 27% in, Bill Owens is up 51-44-5.

10:13PM: The AP is calling NJ-Gov for Chris Christie.

10:11PM: Man. Bill Thompson is only 0.5% back with over half the vote recorded. What is going on here?

10:07PM: As I’d suspected, Corzine is overperforming a bit in the north and Christie is overperforming in the south. (Maybe those LG picks actually made a difference, too.) Corzine is 49/48 in Bergen (should be 42/47 according to baselines), 68/27 in Essex (should be 64/25), 68/27 in Hudson (should be 61/28), and 52/43 in Passaic (should be 48/41). But Christie is cleaning up down the shore: 31/62 in Monmouth (should be 35/53), 28/66 in Ocean (should be 28/60), and unfortunately, in blue Camden County, where it’s 52/42 (should be 55/33). This balances out to a very close race, but it looks like it’s shading toward Christie.

10:05PM: In NY-23, Owens is still leading even at 15% reporting. He’s at 51%, with Hoffman at 45 and Dede at 5.

9:47PM: NYT calls the NYC mayoral race for Bloombo. Jesus. More than half my adult life has been spent under Republican mayors in NYC, and that ratio is about to get worse. The Times must really know something, though – 17% in and Bloombo leads by little more than 1%.

9:39PM: With 158 of 169 precincts reporting, Dem Anthony Foxx has a 52-48 lead in the Charlotte mayor’s race.

9:35PM: Sorry about the server errors, folks – not a whole lot we can do on our end, I’m afraid. Anyhow, the first few precincts are reporting in NY-23.

9:29PM: Looks like Jon Corzine is underperforming his county baselines just about everywhere. Though it just closed to 49-44-6 Christie with 44% reporting.

9:24PM: Another VA General Assembly Dem incumbent set to bite the dust in HD-83, trailing by 20 points with 82% reporting.

9:22PM: Some results are finally starting to make their way in from the Atlanta mayor’s race.

9:20PM: 52-42-6 Christie with 35% in. Ugh.

9:08PM: 50-43-5 Christie, with 29% reporting.

9:02PM: Polls are now closed in NY. In PA, the Dem Supreme Court candidate is up large with 6% in.

8:56PM: 16% of the vote in so far in New Jersey, and Christie is up 54-40. Don’t fret, though – most of the counties reporting are expected to go heavily to Christie.

8:55PM: Just 4% in so far in Maine – good guys with 56%.

8:52PM: TheUnknown285 says of GA-HD-141: “There will be a runoff. One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd. The question is: who will be the other candidate? Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left.”

8:50PM: Johnny LT has a good update on the VA Assembly races. Says Johnny: “So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory.”

8:38PM: Just a head’s up for those planning to burn the midnight oil: We may not get the full results of NY-23 tonight, as several towns in St. Lawrence County are having difficulty with their new voting equipment.

8:33PM: Time for some fresh thread. The AP has results for several states: CA | CT | GA | ME | MI | NJ | NY | OH | PA | VA | WA.

Source: FEC (PDF)

Breaking now:

It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.

It’s not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh’s lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.

In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.

Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There’s too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.

Well, I take back what I said about “reading between the lines” of Scozzafava’s statement yesterday. It’s good to see her doing the right thing here, and I’m sure it will only enrage the teabaggers further. (“See! She wasn’t a real Republican, just like we said!”) Quite a few other folks are also switching to Owens, among them the  New York State United Teachers union, which had previously spent about $50K on Dede’s behalf (see below). Several other unions are following suit, including the AFL-CIO and a local branch of the United Auto Workers. And Scozzafava’s husband, Ron McDougall – himself a union official – also endorsed the Democrat:

“This has been a difficult day for my family. But the needs and concerns of the men and women of the 23rd Congressional District remain paramount,” McDougall said. “As such, I wholeheartedly and without reservation endorse the candidacy of Bill Owens.”

“As a life-long labor activist, I know that Bill Owens understands the issues important to working people. On the other hand, Doug Hoffman has little regard for the interests of workers.”

“Hoffman’s opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, coupled with his support for the failed policies of the Bush Administration make him a poor choice to serve the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District.”

Similarly, the Watertown Daily Times had no problem enthusiastically backing Owens (they had previously given their nod to Dede):

Of the two, Bill Owens is by far the superior and only choice.

The Democratic candidate has demonstrated a willingness to listen to people about ways in which he could help the district as their representative in Washington. Mr. Owens has remained focused on the economy and job creation throughout his campaign. At the same time, he has shown an understanding of the military, a keen desire to help dairy farmers, an ability to work with labor unions and an eagerness to learn more about the vast, 11-county district that he hopes to represent.

Also, below is a chart summarizing all independent expenditures in the NY-23 race from Sept. 23rd (the first time outside groups spent money here) through Oct. 31st:

As noted above, the NYSUT (the union behind VOTE/COPE) just switched over to Owens from Scozzafava.

WOW:

Republican Dede Scozzafava announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign in the Nov. 3 House special election in New York, a dramatic development that increases the GOP’s chances of winning the contentious and closely-watched race.

“In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I’ve come to accept is that in today’s political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money-and as I’ve been outspent on both sides, I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record,” she said in a statement.

“It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican.”

On first blush, this seems like bad news for Democrat Bill Owens. While there isn’t much time left, it allows Doug Hoffman to consolidate the Republican vote.

UPDATE: Dave Weigel reports that the chairman of the Independence Party is now endorsing Owens:

I just got off the phone with Frank MacKay, state chairman of the New York Independence Party, which had endorsed Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election. While Scozzafava has suspended her campaign, she will remain on the ballot as the candidate of the Republican and Independence Parties. MacKay can’t change that, but he told TWI that the party probably made a mistake in endorsing her over Democratic candidate Bill Owens.

“Some of our local organizations have endorsed Hoffman now that Scozzafava is out, and I want to be careful and respect their decisions,” said MacKay, who lives in downstate Suffolk County. “I don’t have a vote in the district. But if I did, I would vote for Bill Owens.” …

“If I knew how chaotic the Scozzafava campaign was going to be, I would have gone with Owens in the beginning,” said MacKay. “That certainly was a disastrous campaign.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: I was about to put up a post about Siena’s newest poll, though it seems a bit moot. I had already written it up, though, when the Dede news broke, so here you go:

Siena (PDF) (10/27-29, likely voters, 10/11-13 in parens):

Bill Owens (D): 36 (33)

Dede Scozzafava (R): 20 (29)

Doug Hoffman (C): 35 (23)

Undecided: 9 (15)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Siena’s numbers confirm R2K’s – Dede was in utter freefall.

ONE MORE UPDATE: A dispiriting tweet from Tom Jensen:

With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17…her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman

Those are very different numbers from what Siena and R2K have shown, though.

EXTRA UPDATE: Unsurprisingly, the NRCC is endorsing Hoffman. Scozzafava herself didn’t endorse Hoffman, but it’s easy to read between the lines:

“It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations,” she said.

“Most liberal candidate in the race” my ass.

STILL ANOTHER UPDATE: Charles Franklin points out that the Siena internals look bad for Owens:

Can Owens pick up from Scozzafava supporters? Not so likely given these poll results.

Owens Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava suppporters: 19/50

Hoffman Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava supporters: 15/57

Looks like a wash with many likely to skip the choice of two disliked alternatives.

And the worse news for Owens is among independents:

Ind. Fav/Unfav Owens: 39/47

Ind. Fav/Unfav Hoffman: 47/33

And then there was one:

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the California governor’s race Friday, leaving no clear challenger in the Democratic field to the former governor and current state attorney general, Jerry Brown.

“It is with great regret I announce today that I am withdrawing from the race for governor of California,” Newsom said in a statement released late Friday afternoon. “With a young family and responsibilities at city hall, I have found it impossible to commit the time required to complete this effort the way it needs to – and should be – done.”

I suppose this isn’t a huge surprise – Brown led in all the polls and had been swamping Newsom in fundraising. Still, I would have given Newsom at least something of a shot just by virtue of being the only alternative to the septuagenarian former governor. Given how brutally ungovernable California often appears to be, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if, at this point, Brown winds up sailing through to the nomination – I just can’t imagine a lot of people clambering to occupy the California statehouse.

I bet I can guess.

UPDATE: The DCCC just dropped another $280K on Owens tonight, bringing their total to over $1.1 million.

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: PPP just posted their poll release schedule for tonight:

NY-23 around 10

New Jersey around 11

Maine around midnight

Virginia around 1 AM

Chapel Hill around 2 AM

Charlotte around 3 AM

Today, the NRCC added 32 candidates to its Young Guns program:

These candidates have all been added to the bottom rung of the NRCC’s list, which they call “On the Radar.” The Republican House campaign committee has also bumped up nine previously-added names to their middle tier, “Contenders”:

Of those initial thirteen picks, four didn’t make the jump: Van Tran (CA-47), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Charles Djou (HI-01), and Jon Barela (NM-01). (Kinzinger, for what it’s worth, has been officially endorsed by the NRCC, the only candidate other than Dennis Ross in FL-12 to be so honored.) Two other dudes who were added later (but before this round) also stay put: David Harmer (CA-10) and Greg Ball (NY-19). I have to believe this means the GOP is writing off any hope of a stunning Harmer upset in next week’s special election.

Interestingly, the NRCC seems to have no reservations about naming more than one candidates running in the same race to their program – they’ve done so in IL-10, MO-04, and NY-19. This is something I don’t recall the DCCC doing with Red to Blue over the past couple of cycles. However, all of these multiple-choice challengers are still only at the “On the Radar” level. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NRCC narrowed things down if certain candidates started to show more promise than others.

A few questions have come up about the FEC’s so-called “48-hour reports.” They’re actually pretty simple. From a PDF on the FEC’s website:

Who Must File FEC Form 6

Principal campaign committees must file 48-hour notices on contributions of $1,000 or more received after the 20th day, but more than 48 hours, before 12:01 a.m. of the day of any election in which the candidate participates. …

When to File

FEC Form 6 must be received by the federal and state (where required) filing offices within 48 hours after acampaign’s receipt of any contribution of $1,000 or more received after the 20th day, but more than 48 hours before, the date of any election in which the candidate participates.

The candidates in NY-23 have been filing 48-hour reports since the close of the reporting period for their “pre-special” fundraising reports, Oct. 15th. But because the 48-hour reports have to be filed very quickly, all three campaigns had already posted a bunch of them before they were required to file their pre-special reports. We gathered those numbers in the right-hand column of the chart in this post.

As you can see from the link, Bill Owens was already kicking ass in this department as of last Thursday. But since then, the disparity has grown much, much greater. Both Owens and Hoffman have each filed three new 48-hour reports; Scozzafava, by contrast, has filed just one. The overall tally is therefore no surprise:

     Owens:   $73,100

     Hoffman: $43,100

     Dede:    $ 2,000

Now, these reports only cover big ($1,000+) donations, so I suppose it’s possible that Dede is raking in a lot of last-minute small-dollar checks. But I tend to doubt that. One thing we do know for sure is that Republican members of Congress – who seldom write checks for less than four figures – have all but forsaken her. Fewer than twenty have given to her so far, and none in her final hour of need. Meanwhile, by my count, over sixty have given to Owens, and many more than once – giving money via campaign committees and leadership PACs, and making donations for 2009 and 2010. This flow has continued unabated – just yesterday, Rep. Joe Crowley’s PAC threw down another $5,000, and Rep. Charlie Gonzales came in for $2,000.

I’m not sure even Obi Wan Kenobi could help Scozzafava now – not that he would.

Rule #1 in political stagecraft: always, always secure your sightlines.

How did this happen? Dede Scozzafava and/or her staff had the genius idea to do an event challenging Doug Hoffman to a debate… right in front of his campaign headquarters. Now how could that possibly go wrong?

Let’s take a quick look at some other North Country news, most of it, as always, bad for Dede:

• Not only has Sarah Palin endorsed Doug Hoffman, but mini-Palin Michele Bachmann has, too. Said Bachmann: “Hoffman is on the ascendancy, and we have to win this seat, and people need to get behind the winning candidate, and it looks like that’s Hoffman.” Not quite as full-throated as Palin’s endorsement, but Bachmann looks to be the first sitting member of Congress to take the plunge.

• Like the New Jersey Restaurant Association’s endorsement of Chris Christie, maybe this is some help Scozzafava would rather not have at this point: several labor and abortion rights groups have chipped in with a few donations. Scozzafava desperately needs to prove her conservative bona fides, and this will help about as much as having the likes of “moderate” Susan Collins campaign for her. Oh wait, she’s doing that, too.

• So, those 48-hour reports I was talking about just below? Well, a lot of big names have shown up for Owens since Oct. 15th, like Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Nydia Velazquez and more. The only GOPer member of Congress who has given to Dede in that timeframe is Greg Walden (OR-02). Believe it or not, Walden just announced he’s that he’s also the first member of Congress to… contract swine flu. I’m not one for omens, but sheesh.

• Some dude endorsed Bill Owens and sent an email to his list.

• You can see Doug Hoffman’s latest ad attacking Scozzafava (by linking her with Owens) here. Reminds me of this ad from last cycle.

• For all the fire Scozzafava’s been under, it’s not exactly clear that Hoffman is any great shakes as a candidate. Check out this description of his meeting with the editorial board of the Watertown Daily Times:

The atmosphere was tense, at times.

Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about.

That’s not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.’s “meet-the-candidates” night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck’s television show.

Ouch!

• Remember Scozzafava’s claim from the other day that Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack “screamed” at her? Big surprise – it was bullshit.

• Speaking of conservative publications, a whole bunch of them (including the Weekly Standard and the Washington Times) all published editorials today calling on Scozzafava to drop out of the race. Newt Gingrich for once is making a little sense, defending his endorsement of Scozzafava by saying, “If you seek to be a perfect minority, you’ll remain a minority.” However, Newt being Newt, he’s still wrong, because he apparently thinks he can push back against this madness. No chance.

• And finally, Chris Cillizza claims that “[s]ources on both sides of the partisan aisle suggest that internal polling shows Scozzafava in third place now.” I don’t know if that’s true, but I can tell you that Daily Kos/R2K will have a new poll out tomorrow.