Author: eschaton

My mapmaking has been slowed down lately, but I wanted to share a configuration I have been working on now that DRA has full 2010 census data.  

Essentially, this map makes all five current Democratic seats into seats with a majority African-American VAP.  Numbers below are VAP figures, not total population

GA-2 – 42.7% White, 51.1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 0.9% Asian

GA-4 – 32.5% White, 51.5% Black, 8.9% Hispanic, 5.1% Asian

GA-5 – 32.7% White, 52.3 Black, 9.8% Hispanic, 3.3% Asian

GA-12 – 42% White, 50.3% Black, 4.7% Hispanic, 1.5% Asian

GA-13 – 32.7% White, 54.4% Black, 7.9% Hispanic, 3.4% Asian

Making GA-12 have a majority black VAP was by far the hardest goal.  Essentially I swapped out current white, rural districts, and instead added largely black portions of Newton, Rockdale, and southwest Gwinnett.  

In addition, it should be noted that GA-7 under this configuration (Gwinnett minus the plurality-black parts of the southwest, and a few overwhelmingly white precincts in the north) is only 43.9% white, with a 47.6% white VAP.  Despite the high number of minorities in the county it’s currently heavily Republican (probably because of a high immigrant population), but in districts like this it’s only a matter of time before they swing.  I could have easily drawn a district which was less than 40% white by dipping into Latino-heavy parts of DeKalb and shuffling other districts around, but I liked having such a compact GA-4.  

Note:  I didn’t put much thought into the Republican seats, aside from keeping them in roughly the same places where possible (although that was obviously more difficult in metro Atlanta with the new GA-14.  

Regardless, any thoughts?

I set out the other day to create a safe 6D, 5R map of Virginia, and found that in fact it’s quite easy to do better.  

Going through the districts in order of partisan lean.  

Solid D

VA-4:

Red district in Southside, Hampton Roads

52% Black, 39% White

67.8% Obama, 63% Democrat

VA-11:

Greenish district in NOVA

48% White, 20% Black, 21% Latino

63% Obama, 57% Democrat

VA-3:

Purple district based in Richmond

53% White, 35% Black

62.2% Obama, 58.5% Democrat

VA-8:

Purple district in Fairfax county

54% White, 19% Asian, 17% Latino, 8% Black

59.9% Obama,  56.2% Democrat

Likely D

VA-10:

Pink district in Loudoun, Fairfax, and Arlington

57.1% Obama, 57.3% Democrat  

Lean D

VA-2:

Green district in Hampton Roads

56.2% Obama, 53% Democrat

VA-5:

Yellow district in West

53.6% Obama, 53.7% Democrat



Solid R:

VA-1:

Blue diestrict in Eastern Virgina

55.8% McCain, 58% Republican

VA-7:

Grey district in Southside/Richmond suburbs

60.2% McCain, 62.1% Republican

VA-6:

Turquoise district based in Shenandoah valley

58.9% McCain, 62.2% Republican

VA-9:

Light blue district in Southwestern Virginia

64.5% McCain, 61.8% Republican.

Admittedly, although favored, Democrats could lose VA-5, VA-2, and VA-10 in the right election, giving them only four absolutely solid seats.  That said, historically Republicans have been very unlikely to hold onto southern seats with any sort of Democratic lean.  

Thoughts?  

Here is my take on what will happen in redistricting in upstate New York.  Some ground rules…

1.  I went in with the assumption two seats are going to be eliminated, one Republican, and one Democrat.  

2.  The Republican, most likely, will be Ann Marie Buerkle of NY 25.  There are several reasons for this.  First, she won a D+3 district in an upset, and she lives in the most Democratic part of the district (Syracuse), meaning giving her a much better district would be difficult.  Second, she is considered too conservative for her district.  Both mean she’s probably the most untenable incumbent.  Finally, Bill Owens is going to need some Democrats to shore up his seat, and Syracuse is the best place to poach them.

3.  The downstate district eliminated is not pictured on the map, but it is likely a NYC-based district not considered a VRA seat.

I didn’t redistrict the sixteen downstate districts for a number of reasons.  First, racial demographics play a much larger role downstate in drawing districts than partisan data.  We don’t have up-to-date racial data with the voting districts, and given the rapid shifts in NYC neighborhoods, it’s really needed.  Second, I don’t know very distinctly the residences of existing reps.  I can say I think the Democrats should have 2-3 majority-black districts (one in Queens, 1-2 in Brooklyn), and 3 majority Latino districts (2 in Bronx, one in Brooklyn and Queens).  

I should also note that in keeping with NY law, I in all cases but one did not split up townships or cities.  the exception was Rockland County.  This was partially because Rockland County has huge “towns” similar to Long Island which were split under the old map.  It’s also because within the towns there are huge ideological ranges, with Hasidic areas which were 90% McCain next to black areas which were 90% Obama.  

Anyway, all of these seats should be reasonably safe for the incumbents.

Away we go…in descending order.

NY-27:

Incumbent: Brian Higgins

D+10

One of the four upstate districts which keeps its old number.  Draws in tightly to Buffalo and becomes far more Democratic.

NY-26:

Incumbent: Tom Reed

R+7

Tom Reed gets a more compact district which hews closely to the southern tier, while taking in some narrowly Republican suburbs south of Buffalo.  A bit more Republican than his old seat.  

NY-25:

Incumbent: Chris Lee

R+9

The district is essentially NY-26.  It gets smoothed out a bit, but still maintains itself as being mainly Republican suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, with some rural areas in-between.  Is more Republican than the old seat.  

NY-24:

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

D+10

The earmuffs are gone!  Instead, the district takes in the more Democratic suburbs of Rochester, then makes a beeline Southeast to take in Icatha.  This is a little less Democratic than the old seat, which was D+15, but it’s still quite safe.  

NY-23:

Incumbent: Bill Owens

D+6

The second Upstate district which doesn’t change numbers.  Bill Owens keeps the four most Democratic counties in North Country.  He gets added to his district Syracuse, the most Democratic-leaning suburbs of it, and a salient connecting the two.  A bit of a ugly gerrymander, but what can you do?  

NY-22:

Incumbent: Richard Hanna

R+5

The district is broadly similar to the old NY-24, in that it still forms a U around Syracuse, although the U is much tighter.  The district is marginally better than the old R+2.  

NY-21:

Incumbent: Paul Tonko

D+6

Another district not switching numbers.  It changes quite a bit, although it remains Albany-focused, shedding some of the more Republican areas to the west, but adding some Democratic-leaning areas in the mid-Hudson region.  The PVI is essentially unchanged.  

NY-20:

Incumbent: Chris Gibson

R+6

This district transforms quite a bit.  It loses all of Duchess and most of Columbia counties, and swaps them for conservative areas mostly swiped from NY-23.  Significantly better than the old PVI of R+2

NY-19:

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

D+5

This is more or less the old NY-22.  It is more compact, having lost Icatha, but gained  Poughkipsie.  The PVI declined by one from the old PVI (D+5), but it should still be a solid seat for the Democrats.  

NY-18:

Incumbent: Nan Hayworth

R+7

A major improvement from the old district, which had a PVI of R+3.  Admittedly, the heavy gerrymandering of Rockland County helped a lot.  I’m guessing that if I followed village lines I would have been less questionable here, but I think even with that the PVI shouldn’t have declined much.  

NY-17:

Incumbent: Nita Lowey

D+9

Basically NY-18.  Still Westchester based, with a bit of Orange.  PVI is identical to the old district.  

At the end, I was left with a sliver of Westchester County at the bottom of the map – Mount Vernon, Pelham, and the southern portions of New Rochelle and Yonkers.  I could have gone two ways with this, either keeping Elliot Engle’s seat, but making it more compact (containing these regions and the non-Latino sections of the Bronx), or if I chose to eliminate his seat, splitting the region between several NYC-based districts.  I think the former would have been easier.  

Anyway, love to hear thoughts.  I think in retrospect I could have done better with NY-19, and I’m unsure if NY-18 is legal under New York law, but besides that I think this is a pretty good map.  

Last week, I looked at why a 12-6 Republican map was most likely.  This week, I’ll take a look at the converse – a 12-6 Democratic map.  

Although a pretty heavily Democratic state, it is hard to create enough safe seats for Democrats in Pennsylvania.  The reason is most Democratic votes are concentrated in Philadelphia.  Under the strictest interpretation of the VRA, it may be required to keep PA-1 majority-minority, and PA-2 majority black.

For Pennsylvania, I’d argue that a safe Democratic seat needs a PVI of D+5.  This is because the Republicans have been successful at holding down one D+4 seat all decade.  It was hard to draw all the eastern suburban districts to meet D+5 and maintain the two Philadelphia districts as listed above, but after some work, I came up with a good map. Two democratic districts have a lower PVI than this because they are outside of the region, but are as Democratic as the situation allowed.

I didn’t pay particular attention to the location of Democratic incumbents, quite honestly.  This map opens a lot of opportunities for Democrats, which I think outweighs any potential issues.  

Details below

PA-1

Majority-Minority (46% white – forgot to write down non-white breakdown)

76% Obama, 24% McCain (D+22)

This district swings dramatically to the North, taking in somewhat swingy parts of northeast, and with an arm going into Bucks county to take in some Republican-leaning suburbs.  Bob Brady doesn’t live here.  

PA-2

Majority black (51%)

87% Obama, 13% McCain (D+33)

The district becomes based in south Philadelphia, and takes in some more Republican-leaning areas of the city.  It’s still pretty Democratic however.  Unfortunately, there are no lily-white highly Republican areas nearby I could have swapped in.  

PA-3

58% Obama, 42% McCain (D+4)

One ugly district which draws in all the Democratic areas in the northwest and central portions of the state (State College, Johnstown, Erie, New Castle, Hermitage, etc).  This was the best PVI that could be managed for the district without poaching on PA-14 to some degree (which I wanted to avoid).  It should still elect a Democrat comfortably, given the PVI is calculated by Obama votes only, and he actually underperformed Kerry in certain parts of the district.  That said, given the rightward drift of much of the region, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PVI becomes closer by the end of the decade.  Still, Erie and State College are not turning to the right, so it’s hard to see the PVI slipping to less than even.  Call it a Lean D seat.  

PA-4

59% McCain, 41% Obama (R+13)

This is the first of the Republican voter sinks, drawing in most of the Republican areas in metro Pittsburgh.  Technically, Jason Altmire is the incumbent here, but he might want to move to PA-14 (which is now vacant) which should be a safe seat for him.  No Republican congressmen lives in the district, but it has a good deal of Tim Murphy’s old district, so he may decide to relocate.  

PA-5

60% McCain, 40% Obama (R+14)

This district absorbs Republican votes across a huge swath of Western Pennsylvania.  Mike Kelly lives here (barely), and he’d be wise to run for this seat.  

PA-6

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district is made more Democratic by a hair than Jim Gerlach’s old district.  While it might not defeat him immediately, given the trends of the region, along with the close elections he faced in 2004 and 2006, he should lose the seat within two or three election cycles.  

PA-7

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district draws in Democratic and heavily-black areas like Chester and Yeadon.  Joe Pitts lives here, but it is much less Republican than his old district, so he will likely be forced into retirement.  Pat Meehan lives just outside of the district now, in PA-6.  Given he’s a freshmen and dealing with a bigger swing than Gerlach, I’d say he’ll lose the seat immediately if he ran.    

PA-8

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district is made more Democratic by including some heavily-Democratic parts of Cheltenham and north Philadelphia.  Mike Fitzpatrick’s days are numbered.  

PA-9

63% McCain, 37% Obama (R+17)

Republican vote dump for the central Pennsylvania.  Bill Schuster is welcome to this seat.  

PA-10

58% McCain, 42% Obama (R+12)

This is the least Republican of their six planned seats, mainly because the eastern half of the district is pretty uniformly only narrowly Republican.  Still, it’s a boost for Tom Marino, or Lou Barletta – whoever wins the primary.  

PA-11

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

This district sheds much of the Wilkes-Barre area and instead takes on most of Northampton County, spitting Charlie Dent’s base in half.  It should be a safe district for the right sort of Democrat.  

PA-12

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district is somewhat reconfigured.  It continues to contain the more heavily-Democratic areas of rural southwestern PA down the mon valley, but also picks up Pittsburgh’s eastern suburbs, along with a few neighborhoods of Pittsburgh itself.  Mike Doyle lives here, so I’m guessing he runs for this district rather than PA-14, which is only marginally more Democratic.  

PA-13

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

Allyson Schwartz’s district becomes a little less Democratic, and becomes more exclusively focused on Montgomery county.  She should hold down the slightly more swingy district with little trouble.  

PA-14

61% Obama, 39% McCain (D+7)

The new PA-14 still contains most of Pittsburgh, but draws in swingy and Republican suburbs in the South Hills, and Democratic areas in Beaver County.  I resisted attempting to even the PVI of this and PA-12 to D+6, because there was no way to do so without putting even more of Pittsburgh into the 12th, to minimal effect.  No incumbent, but Jason Altmire would be smart to relocate here, and immediately position himself to the left.  

PA-15

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

Charlie Dent loses over half his base, gets a slightly more Democratic district, and gets Tim Holden (and a fair portion of his old base) drawn into it.  He’s toast.  

PA-16

55% Obama, 45% McCain (D+1)

All of the most democratic parts of York, Lancaster, and Dauphin counties are drawn into one district.  The PVI is close enough there is no guarantee that the district will elect a Democrat.  Indeed, PA-19’s Todd Russel Platts (who lives in York), is somewhat moderate and a good fit for the district ideologically).  The district will only be getting bluer however, as minority immigration to York and Lancaster has been quite high.  Thus it should be safely Democratic by the end of the decade – or sooner if an open seat.  

PA-17

61% McCain, 39% Obama (R+15)

An open Republican seat consisting of mainly the northern reaches of Pennsylvania Dutch Country and some mountains.  The bulk of the district was actually represented by Tim Holden previously, and not only does no Republican incumbent live there, but none even represented a large portion.  I’m unsure who would choose to run here.  

PA-18

63% McCain, 37% Obama (R+17)

The remainder of Pennsylvania Dutch country.  Again, there is no Republican incumbent, although theoretically both Joe Pitts and Todd Russel Platts may show some interest in the district.

Later, I’ll show my compact redistricting plan for the state.  Thoughts?    

Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen numerous maps which have tried to draw Pennsylvania (where Republicans have total control) 13R-5D, or even 14R-4D.  After trying several maps out for myself, I’ve decided that aggressive action by the Republicans, while not impossible, will be foolhardy.

The 2000 Republican redistricting is remembered by some as a success, but in many ways, it was a failure.  PA-13 and PA-17 were both supposed to be Republican seats when drawn.  And as we all know, PA-3, PA-4, PA-8 and PA-7 ultimately were too Democratic to be held consistently through the decade.  

Republicans will surely wish to ensure that one Democratic incumbent loses their seat (most likely Mark Critz).  Knocking off Jason Altmire isn’t too difficult either – there are plenty of deep-red Republican areas to draw into his district, and western Pennsylvania outside of Pittsburgh is swinging to the right pretty rapidly.  However, eastern Pennsylvania has been trending towards the Democrats for just as long.  The Republicans now hold four Democratic-leaning districts in the east.  Not enough Democrats can be siphoned into PA-1, PA-2, and PA-13 to make the seats safe.  

Compounding the issue is Tim Holden.  He has been a formidable campaigner, repeatedly winning re-election in a Republican-leaning district.  Any attempt to trade his seat for a new safe D district scooping up Democrats the northeastern part of the state makes it uncomfortably possible the Republicans will hand the Democrats a free gimme and Holden will survive.

Therefore, I’ve decided a 12-6 breakdown is the best the Republicans can reasonably manage which protects almost all of their incumbents (barring a major scandal), for the remainder of the decade.  Really, a two-to-one margin for Republicans, given they have consistently lost the state on the presidential level since 1988, is pretty damn gerrymandered already – especially if they trade four somewhat unsafe seats for much safer ones.

In the end, I think the map will have these broad outlines:

1.  Eliminate Mark Critz’s seat.

2.  Move PA-12 to the Philly burbs.  It becomes a vote sink for Democratic areas which do not fit into the other three Philly-area districts.

3.  Make Tim Holden’s district as Democratic as possible, which will help shore up both PA-11 and PA-15 for incumbents.

4.  In order to ensure that no Republican incumbent loses a seat, Altmire has to go.  His seat gets dismembered, with his hometown in PA-14, but his base split between PA-18, PA-9, and PA-3.  Thus he’ll have to move, and face an uphill battle regardless.  PA-4 moves to Dutch Country and replaces PA-19.  

Here’s the statewide view.  All Republican incumbents keep their hometowns in their seats, from what information I could gather.  Some districts do change composition rather dramatically however, particularly in the east.  

Details by district:

PA-1

Minority-Majority (39% White, 34% Black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian)

82% Obama, 17% McCain (D+28)

I do not know Bob Brady’s exact address, so I am not sure if his home is in the district.  The district sheds its extension into Delaware county, and expands a bit into Northeast Philly.  Still highly safe of course.

PA-2

Majority Black (63% Black, 29% White, 4% Asian, 3% Hispanic)

90% Obama, 10% McCain (D+36)

Again, I am not sure of Chaka Fattah’s exact address, but the core of black west Philadelphia remains intact.  The district takes in predominantly black areas of Delaware county, and also a few heavily-Democratic white areas like Media and Glenolden which don’t fit well into PA-12.  

PA-3

53% McCain, 46% Obama (R+7)

The district sheds half of Erie, in order to become less Democratic, and picks up more Republican areas to the south which were formerly part of PA-4.  It does contain a fairly substantial part of Altmire’s old district, and is only marginally more Republican than his old district, but he would have to move to establish himself here.  

PA-4

56% McCain, 43% Obama (R+10)

This is really a replacement for the old PA-19.  It’s centered around Harrisburg, although Harrisburg itself is drawn into PA-10 in order to stop this district from being swingy.  Should remain a solid Republican seat.  

PA-5

53% McCain, 45% Obama (R+8)

This district migrates to the west, picking up half of Erie, along with some of the outer reaches of southwestern Pennsylvania.  It’s slightly more swingy than it was before with the inclusion of Erie, but should remain a solid Republican seat.  

PA-6

51% McCain, 48% Obama (R+5)

Marginal parts of Chester and Montgomery are shed, along with the city of Redding.  In exchange, it takes in more of rural Redding county, and the northern parts of Lancaster county.  Although the right Democrat could take this, it is a far safer district than it was.  

PA-7

52% McCain, 47% Obama (R+6)

Again, the district shifts west.  It takes on parts of Chester, Lancaster, and York counties, while shedding the most Democratic parts of Delaware, along with the salient into Montgomery.  This should be a fairly secure Republican seat.

PA-8

51% Obama, 48% McCain (R+3)

There were logical limits to how well this seat could be gerrymandered.  It has shed southern Bucks, and picked up in exchange the most Republican parts of Montgomery, along with a Republican-leaning strip of hills in the Lehigh.  However, this area is still very swingy and essentially surrounded by Democrats on all sides, making further improvement difficult.  Compounding issues, Mike Fitzpatrick is from Levittown, in the far south.  Levittown is not a real municipality, it is split across three different townships.  Given I didn’t know where precisely he lived, I decided to leave Middletown in PA-8, which is marginally less Democratic, while putting Bristol and Falls into PA-13.  Democrats will probably take this seat sometime during this decade if current trends continue, but it should be the Republicans’ only loss.  

PA-9

58% McCain, 42% Obama (R+11)

This district changes complexion dramatically, from being based in the Central PA mountains to being mainly based in the Pittsburgh exurbs, with a salient heading towards Johnstown and Altoona.  It is still heavily Republican.  Mark Critz finds himself in this district, and out of a job.  A small amount of Altmire’s old district is in PA-9 now, but I think it will be the least likely option for him to take.  

PA-10

53% McCain, 46% Obama (R+7)

The district moves to the west and south.  It is not an overwhelmingly Republican seat, due to the inclusion of State College and Harrisburg, but is still Republican enough to remain safe.  

PA-11

52% McCain, 46% Obama (R+7)

Much of the Wyoming valley has been shed, as it was too full of Democrats for Lou Barletta’s comfort.  In its place, much of the “Northeast woods” of the state have been added.  The district should be a pretty good fit for Lou Barletta’s moderate stances.  

PA-12

63% Obama, 36% McCain (D+10)

This entirely new district more or less follows the Schuykill River, picking up Democratic votes from Philly all the way to Redding.  It’s an interesting question who in the state house or senate will step forward to run for this seat.  

PA-13

63% Obama, 36% McCain (D+10)

The district retains a focus on Montgomery county, but sheds much of the northern parts of the county.  It also loses much of Northeast Philly, and gains lower Bucks.

PA-14

68% Obama, 31% McCain (D+14)

This district is not quite as Democratic as it could be, as it draws in a few Republican areas to ensure Jason Altmire will live in the district.  If the Republicans are lucky, he may try to primary Mike Doyle (although I think he would lose).  It is otherwise broadly similar to the old Pittsburgh-based district.  

PA-15

50% Obama, 49% McCain (R+4)

This is the other Republican district which could potentially be endangered.  The problem is incumbent Charlie Dent lives in heavily Democratic Allentown.  If I knew precisely where in Allentown he lived, I could shunt most of the city into PA-17, and probably improve the district to R+6 or R+7.

PA-16

57% McCain, 42% Obama (R+12)

This district, as odd as it seems looking at it, was not constructed mainly as a gerrymander.  The incumbent is unfortunately in Chester county, but the old base of Chester and Lancaster was needed in order to make PA-6 and PA-7 into solid Republican seats.  Thus the seat goes far, far to the west, traveling almost the entire length of the southern border of the state.  In southwestern Pennsylvania, it does helpfully sop up Democratic voters in the Mon valley who would otherwise cause issues for Tim Murphy.  

PA-17

61% Obama, 38% McCain (D+8)

Since it’s impossible to ensure Tim Holden is defeated, instead the new PA-17 packs in as many Democrats into his seat as possible.  The only old part of the seat is a small salient into Schuykill county to grab his hometown.  Indeed, it’s plausible he’d be vulnerable in a primary, but he’d have an easier time running as an unknown incumbent in an open seat primary than he would moving and picking more Republican PA-15 which has most of his old base.  My bet is he stays put.  

PA-18

53% McCain, 46% Obama (R+8)

The new PA-18 keeps most of Tim Murphy’s base in the South Hills of Pittsburgh intact.  It does shed Westmoreland county to PA-9, and takes in a good deal of the old PA-4.  The retention of Murphy’s base means Altmire would have trouble gaining traction here.  If the seat ended up open, he’d otherwise potentially be competitive.

Thoughts?