Author: plf515

Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Colorado has 7 representatives: 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans.  Filing deadline May 29, primary August 12

Connecticut has 5 representative, 4 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Filing deadline May 3, primary August 12

Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican.  Filing deadline July 25, primary Sept 9

District: CO-01

Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern

Representative Diana DeGette (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money.  DeGette has won easily since her first race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CO-02

Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver

Representative Mark Udall (D) retiring (to run for

Senate)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 68-28

2004 margin 67-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $15,000

Current opponents There are three declared Democrats, and no Republicans (although some are considering it).  The declared:

1. Joan Fitz-Gerald

2. Will Shafroth

3. Jared Polis

All three look good, but, from their websites, Joan Fitz-Gerald looks the most progressive (to me).

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This district is increasingly Democratic (Udall’s margin increased each time; Bush got less in 2004 than 2000) and with three good Democrats, it should stay blue

District: CO-03

Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen

Representative John Salazar (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Walcher, in 2004, raised $1.5 million, about the same as Salazar.  In 2006, Tipton raised almost a million, Salazar more than $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but Salazar is better than McInnis was.

District: CO-04

Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver

Representative Marilyn Musgrave (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 46-43 (remainder Reform)

2004 margin 51-45

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents Angie Paccione, in 2006, raised almost $2 million to Musgrave’s $3.2 million;

Current opponents Betsey Markey

Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment Musgrave was labeled “one of the most corrupt members of congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.  Not a lot of Republicans could lose in this district, but Musgrave is one of them

District: CO-05

Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs

Representative Doug Lamborn (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents Fawcett raised $600K to Lamborn’s $900K

Current opponents No declared Democrats, but there’s several Republicans going after Lamborn.

Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.

Assessment A long shot

District: CO-06

Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver

Representative Tom Tancredo (R)*retiring*

First elected  1998

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised almost a million

Current opponents Mike Collins

Demographics One of the wealthiest districts (median income = $73K, 6th place, and fewest people in poverty of any district (2.7%)

Assessment No Republicans have declared, but this is a solidly Republican district.  

District: CO-07

Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward

Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-42

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Perlmutter and his opponent (Rick O’Donnell) raised almost $3 million each

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Not unusual in what I track

Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the  least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate

District: CT-01

Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle

Representative John Larson (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on things I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-02

Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London

Representative Joe Courtney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 83 votes

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004  44-54

Notes on opponents In 2006, Courtney knocked off Rob Simmons. Courtney had $2.5 million, Simmons over $3 million

Current opponents Sean Sullivan

Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)

Assessment Having beaten an incumbent, Courtney should have an easier time now, but this district is far from safe.

District: CT-03

Location New Haven and areas around it

Representative Rosa DeLauro

First elected  1990

2006 margin 76-22

2004 margin 72-25

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-04

Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound

Representative Christopher Shays (R)

First elected  1987

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents In the 2006 race, Dianne Farrell raised almost $3 million, Shays, almost $4 million

Current opponents Jim Himes a former investment banker who then ran non-profits; others are considering it

Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)

Assessment Shays has been close… will this be the year? Likely to be very close again

District: CT-05

Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden

Representative Chris Murphy (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-44

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy beat Nancy Johnson, the incumbent.  She raised $5 million (not a typo) he raised $2.5 million.

Current opponents David Capiello

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not quite safe, but probably OK; comments on dailyKos indicate that Capiello has no funds and not much chance

District: DE-AL

Location Delaware.  

Representative Mike Castle (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Spivack, in 2006, raised $300K to Castle’s $1.1 million

Current opponents

1. Jerry Northington who blogs on daily Kos as possum.

2. Karen Hartley-Nagle

3. Chris Bullock

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!

Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races.

California has 53 representatives: 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans

Filing deadline March 7; primary June 3

District: CA-01

Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento

Representative Mike Thompson (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 66-29

2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)

Bush margin 2004 38-60

Notes on opponents Neither was well funded

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-02

Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico

Representative Wally Herger (R)

First elected 1986

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sekhon raised $150K to Herger’s $711K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-03

Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border

Representative Dan Lungren (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Durston raised $300K to Lungren’s $600K

Current opponents Bill Durston and a Libertarian

Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%);

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-04

Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV

Representative  John Doolittle (R) retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 49-46

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Brown raised $1.6 million (against Doolittle’s $2.4 million)

Current opponents Charlie Brown

Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment Ordinarily, an open seat is easier than running against a Republican. This may be an exception – Doolittle was just so bad.  OTOH, the high number of veterans may make this a better year than most for Democrats in this district, and Brown now has name recognition….. Possible

District: CA-05

Location Sacramento and some suburbs

Representative Doris Matsui (D)

First elected 2005

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Notes on opponents Neither opponent raised money

Current opponents Paul Smith

Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place).  Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-06

Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco

Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 28-70

Notes on opponents Neither raised money.  Never had a close race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-07

Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo

Representative  George Miller (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 32-67

Notes on opponents the 2004 opponent had no money.  No close race since 1974

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-08

Location San Francisco

Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)

First elected   1987

2006 margin 80-11

2004 margin 83-12

Bush margin 2004 14-85

Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race

Current opponents Dana Walsh

Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI

Assessment  Vulnerable.  Ha!  Just seeing if you were paying attention.  Safe.

District: CA-09

Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative Barbara Lee (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 86-11

2004 margin 85-12

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K.  She got 31,000 votes.  

Current opponents John den Dulk

Demographics Like the 5th, but more so.  35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-10

Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative Ellen Tauscher (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes

Current opponents Nicholas Gerber

Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-11

Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco

Representative Jerry McNerney

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, McNerney ousted the odious Richard Pombo; Jerry spent $2.4 million, Pombo spent $4.6 million

Current opponents Dean Andal has declared, others are considering it

Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).  

Assessment One of the few competitive districts in CA. McNerney will probably have a challenge.  His website is here .

District: CA-12

Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative currently vacant following death of Tom Lantos.  I don’t know when the special election will be.

First elected  NA

2006 margin Lantos won 76-24

2004 margin Lantos won 68-21

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None announced, nor any Democrats yet

Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.

Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.

District: CA-13

Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay

Representative Pete Stark (D)

First elected  1972

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 72-24

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Quite similar to the 12th

Assessment Safe.  Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House.  Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!

District: CA-14

Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto

Representative Anna Eshoo (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin 70-27

Bush margin 2004 33-68

Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-15

Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy

Representative Mike Honda (D)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Each recent one raised about $50K.  

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-16

Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised any money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Very similar to th 15th.  The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.  

Assessment Safe

District: CA-17

Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond

Representative Sam Farr (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 67-29

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent, Mark Risley, raised over $100K, Farr raised about $600K and won easily

Current opponents  Jeff Taylor

Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)

Assessment Safe.  Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones

District: CA-18

Location Central Valley

Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 68-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent raised over $100K, but it did him little good.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).

Assessment Safe.  Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district.

District: CA-19

Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it

Representative George Radonovich (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 66-27

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent, TJ Cox, raised almost $900K to Radonovich’s $1.1 million.  

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)

Assessment It looks like a long shot, but Radanovich has played fast and loose with some rules.  In 2004, he may have violated campaign finance laws, and he is increasing violation of his pledge to serve only 10 years.  If we can get a strong Latino candidate, it may get interesting.

District: CA-20

Location More of the Central Valley

Representative Jim Costa (D)

First elected 2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 53-47

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents His 2004 opponent raised about $1 million.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)

Assessment A moderate Democrat in a swing district, Costa seems relatively safe, but this is one of the few California districts that might get competitive

District: CA-21

Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley

Representative Devin Nunes (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents Steven Haze, in 2006, raised over $100K to Nunes’ $1 million

Current opponents None declared; Haze has withdrawn.

Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-22

Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley

Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Notes on opponents Beery, in 2006, raised no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on variables I track

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-23

Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands.

Representative Lois Capps (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 40-58

Notes on opponents each recent opponent raised about $100K

Current opponents Don Regan

Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)

Assessment Safe.  Don Regan lost to Capps in 2004

District: CA-24

Location Just interior to most of CA-23

Representative Elton Gallegly (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Martinez raised $131K and in 2004 Wagmer raosed $207K

Current opponents

1. Jill Martinez

2. Chip Fraser

3. Elliot Maggin

and some Republicans

Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).

Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992) and, if this is a big Democratic year, this could be competitive

District: CA-25

Location

Representative Buck McKeon

First elected 1992

2006 margin 60-36

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Rodriguez raised $230K to McKeon’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Jacquese Conaway

Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-26

Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga

Representative David Dreier

First elected  1980

2006 margin 57-38

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Neither of his recent opponents raised more than about $25K

Current opponents Russ Warner

Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)

Assessment Dreier is vulnerable.  His recent opponents raised no money and still held him under 60%.  The DCCC is targeting him, and this is one of the few California Republican districts that has a good chance to go blue.  Warner looks like a good guy, too.

District: CA-27

Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28.  This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda

Representative Brad Sherman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Notes on opponents neither raised much money.  Sherman’s first elections were close, but that was a decade ago.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-28

Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T

Representative Howard Berman (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 74-19

2004 margin 71-23

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents neither raised money.  Berman has been over 66% in every election since 1996

Current opponents No declared Republicans, one Green

Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts.  Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-29

Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top.

Representative Adam Schiff (D)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 63-27

2004 margin 65-30

Bush margin 2004 37-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Henry Scolinos raised $600K to Schiff’s $1.0 million.  Schiff has gotten nearly identical percentages in every race since his first

Current opponents Charles Hahn

Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-30

Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu

Representative Henry Waxman

First elected  1974

2006 margin 71-26

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents In 2004, Victor Elizalde raised $262K to Waxman’s $455K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-31

Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood

Representative Xavier Becerra (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 22-77

Notes on opponents Vega in 2004 did not raise much.  No close race since his first

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.

Assessment Safe.

District: CA-32

Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles.  

Representative Hilda Solis (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 85-15 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents neither raised money. Never had a close race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-33

Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles.  This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles).

Representative Diane Watson

First elected  2001

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 16-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents David Crowley, and a primary opponent who lost to Watson in 2006 by 91%-9%

Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-34

Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway

Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 74-26

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents neither raised money. Roybal-Allard has had no close races

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-35

Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood

Representative Maxine Waters (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)

2004 margin 81-15

Bush margin 2004 20-79

Notes on opponents No money.  No close elections

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-36

Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific

Representative Jane Harman (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much.  No close elections since 2000.  Harman was also in Congress from 1992-1998, with very close elections each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos

Assessment Safe

District: CA-37

Location Long Beach

Representative Laura Richardson (D)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts

Assessment Maybe a primary, but safe for Democrats

District: CA-38

Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona

Representative  Grace Napolitano (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Notes on opponents No money.  Never had a close race

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Again, similar to those above

Assessment Safe

District: CA-39

Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood

Representative Linda Sanchez (D)

First elected   2002

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 61=39

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents Tim Escobar, in 2004, raised $750 K, almost identical to what Sanchez raised

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-40

Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange

Representative Ed Royce (R)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hoffman raised $140K, Royce got 10 times that

Current opponents :

1. Florice Hoffman, the 2006 opponent (although her website is down)

2. Christina Avalos (note to the web savvy – she looks like a good candidate, but her website could use some help)

Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area

Assessment A long shot, but Avalos might bring in more of the many Latinos in the district

District: CA-41

Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV

Representative Jerry Lewis (R)

First elected 1978

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents :

1. Rita Ramirez-Dean

2. Tim Prince

3. Louis Contreras

4. Patrick Meagher

Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)

Assessment There were rumors Lewis would retire, but he is apparently running.  This is a Republican district, but Lewis is a crook, connected with Duke Cunningham and other crooks.  Who knows?

District: CA-42

Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo

Representative Gary Miller (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents Recent opponent had no money; Miller’s winning margins have been growing

Current opponents :

1. Ron Shepston who blogs at Daily Kos under the name CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream.  YES WE CAN (where have I heard that?)

2. Ed Chau

Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)

Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh.

District: CA-43

Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino

Representative Joe Baca (D)

First elected  1999

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money

Current opponents Scott Folkens (a Republican) and possibly a couple Democrats in a primary (see the Wiki)

Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.

Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at

District: CA-44

Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente

Representative Ken Calvert (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Louis Vandenberg ran both times, neither time did he raise money

Current opponents :

1. Louis Vandeberg

2. Bill Hedrick

3. Regilio Morales

Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)

Assessment A Southern California Republican.  Ethical and legal troubles.  Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad.  He said they were just talking.  hmmmm. Where are his ears?  

District: CA-45

Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border

Representative Mary Bono (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents David Roth, in 2006, raised $722K, Bono raised about double that

Current opponents :

1. Paul Clay (another website that could use some help)

2.  David Hunsicker (no site)

Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-46

Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands

Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents Jim Brandt ran twice and neither time did he raise $100K

Current opponents Debbie Cook

Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)

Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff.  Still, this is a Republican district.  

District: CA-47

Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana

Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Both Nguyen (2006) and Coronado (2004) were relatively well funded. In 1996, Sanchez pulled off a great upset, beating Robert Dornan by 984 votes

Current opponents Dina Biederman  

Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian.  Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.

Assessment  Should be safe

District: CA-48

Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel.

Representative John Campbell (R)

First elected  2005

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 58-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Steve Young raised $400 K, Campbell 5 times that

Current opponents Steve Young again.

Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-49

Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county

Representative Darrell Issa

First elected  2000

2006 margin 63-33

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $100K

Current opponents Robert Hamilton

Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-50

Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego.

Representative Brian Billbray (R)

First elected  2006, but was in House 1994-2000

2006 margin 53-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, this must have been one of the most expensive races (I haven’t recorded these data).  Billbray spent $2.6 million, his challenger Francine Busby, spent almost a million more than that

Current opponents Nick Leibham

Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).

Assessment A long shot.  

District: CA-51

Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ

Representative Bob Filner (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Each raised about $100 K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: CA-52

Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert

Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring

First elected  1980

2006 margin 65-32

2004 margin 69-28

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K

Current opponents

1. Mike Lumpkin

2. Jim Hester

3. Vicki Butcher

and a bunch of Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment It’s a fairly Republican district, but in a Democratic year, who knows?

District: CA-53

Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs

Representative Susan Davis (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 66-29

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised a bit under $100K

Current opponents Delicia Holt

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

Here’s part two of the second round of congressional races.

Alaska has one representative – A Republican, and the filing deadline is June 2, primary August 26

Arizona has 8 representatives – 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans.  Filing deadline is June 4, primary Sept. 2

Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Filing deadline is March 10, primary May 20

District:   AK-AL

Location You know where Alaska is!

Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring

First elected  1973

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 71-22

Bush margin 2004 61-36

Notes on opponents Benson, the 2006 opponent, raised almost $200K; Young raised 10 times that

Current opponents

1.   Ethan Berkowitz

2. Jake Metcalfe

3. Diane Benson

and possibly

Mark Begrich (mayor of Anchorage)

and, if Young retires, a bunch of Republicans.

Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.

Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets, but this year, all bets are off.

District: AZ-01

Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO

Representative Rick Renzi (R) Retiring

First elected  2002

2006 margin 52-43 (remainder libertarian)

2004 margin 59-36 (remainder libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, there were well-funded opponents

Current opponents  

1. Howard Shanker

2. Allan Affeldt

3. Ann Kirkpatrick

several other Democrats are considering it, and several Republicans are running

Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)

Assessment A lot will depend on the primaries.  This could be very competitive.

District: AZ-02  

Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix

Representative Trent Franks (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither of the recent two opponents had much money, but Franks didn’t need much, either

Current opponents John Thrasher who was the 2006 challenger.

Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.

Assessment A longshot

District: AZ-03

Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree

Representative  John Shadegg (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Paine raised less than 100K

Current opponents Bob Lord and an independent

Demographics Not unusual on any of the statisitcs I track

Assessment This is clearly Republican territory, but Shadegg’s retirement throws it open.  No Republican has announced yet.

District: AZ-04

Location Phoenix and Glendale

Representative Ed Pastor (D)

First elected  1991

2006 margin 73-24

2004 margin 70-26

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-05

Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe

Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mitchell ousted Hayworth, despite raising less than Hayworth did (about $2 million to about $3 million)

Current opponents The Wiki lists a lot of potential challengers, declared challengers include Laura Knaperek, David Schweikert, Jim Ogsbury, and Jeff Hatch-Miller

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  

Assessment Like most freshmen, Mitchell is vulnerable, particularly if the Republicans put up someone less obnoxious than Hayworth.

District: AZ-06

Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state.  

Representative Jeff Flake

First elected  2000

2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents

Current opponents Richard Grayson

Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).

Assessment This is a longshot

District: AZ-07

Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico

Representative Raul Grijalva

First elected  2002

2006 margin 61-34

2004 margin 62-34

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Drake, in 2006, raised over $100K

Current opponents Gene Chewning

Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-08

Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM

Representative Gabrielle Gifford

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents Graf, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, Giffords $2.4 million

Current opponents Timothy Bee

Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)

Assessment  Although no freshman is completely safe, Giffords won pretty easily in 2006.  

District: AR-01

Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS

Representative Marion Berry (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents Neither raised much money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 17) districts.

Assessment A safe Democratic seat in a swing district

District: AR-02

Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock,

Representative Vic Snyder (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 58-42

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents Parks, in 2004, raised over 500K, almost as much as Snyder, but still lost easily

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Safe

District: AR-03

Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK

Representative John Boozman (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 59-38

Bush margin 2004 62-36

Notes on opponents Both races were relatively even (and relatively low) in spending

Current opponents Dave Pritt

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Longshot

District: AR-04

Location Southern  AR, including Fayetteville, bordering LA, TX and OK

Representative Mike Ross (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents The 2006 race was Ross vs. Ross; the Democrat raised $1.25 million, the Republican raised almost nothing

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)

Assessment Safe

I’m gonna start this again, updating it and changing the format.  

First of all, this time, I’m going alphabetically.  

Second, I’ll spend a little bit more time on the Democratic districts, particularly the ones that are even a little vulnerable.

Third, I’ll be more consistent in reporting

Fourth, I’ll cover more demographics

So, here we go

Alabama has 7 CDs, 5 are Republican, 2 are Democratic

District: AL-01

Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico.  It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07.

Representative Jo Bonner (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 63-37

 Bush margin 2004 64-35

 Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent had no money; in 2004, though, Judy Belk spent $400K.

Current opponents Ben Lodmell who is a moderate

Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district

Assessment This is a longshot

District: AL-02

Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery

Representative Terry Everitt (R) retiring

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 71-28

 Bush margin 2004 67-33

 Notes on opponents His opponents have had no money (less than $10,000 each)

Current opponents  No confirmed opponents, filing deadline is April 4.  For potential opponents, see the WIKI

Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th). One of the highest percentages of Blacks of any Republican represented district (only 7 had more Blacks

Assessment We need a candidate! It’s an OPEN seat! One possibility is Bobby Bright, the mayor of Montgomery

District: AL-03

Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee

Representative Mike Rogers

First elected 2002

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 61-39

 Bush margin 2004 58-41

 Notes on opponents Fuller, the 2004 opponent, spent $240K, Pierce, the 2006 opponent, spent almost nothing

Current opponents Greg Pierce

Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so.  Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).  

Assessment A long shot

District:   AL-04

Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA.

Representative Robert Aderholt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 75-25

 Bush margin 2004 71-28

 Notes on opponents Neither recent opp. had any money.

Current opponents Greg Warren

Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).

Assessment Another long shot (sigh… AL is not friendly to Democrats)

District: AL-05

Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN.  Includes Huntsville and Decautur

Representative Bud Cramer (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 73-27

 Bush margin 2004 60-39

 Notes on opponents Last close election was in 1996

Current opponents Ray McKee

Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.

Assessment  Cramer is one of the most conservative Dems in the House.  But there are only 13 districts that have Democratic representatives and are this Republican at the national level.  A safe Democratic seat in a red district is something/

District: AL-06

Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible

Representative Spencer Bacchus (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

 Bush margin 2004 78-22

 Notes on opponents none

Current opponents  none

Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so

Assessment If we have to skip a race, this is probably the one

District: AL-07

Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two ‘fingers’ to include more Blacks.

Representative Artur Davis

First elected  2002

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

 Bush margin 2004 35-64

 Notes on opponents None close

Current opponents none

Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it’s got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)

Assessment Davis ought to be primaried. If there is going to be one Democratic district in AL, it ought to have a progressive.

This was originally at dailyKos, and is a bit dated, but the theory is still sound, I think. I’ve noted places where filing is closed….there’s always 2010!

The other day, James Risser put up an excellent diary 86 the 86 in ’08.  These are the 86 Dems. who voted with 194 Repubs to agree to keep funding the war.

I thought, though, that 1) We aren’t going to get 86 primaries going.  It would be nice, but that’s a LOT of races!  2) We don’t want to replace moderate-conservative Democrats with right wing Repubs and therefore 3) The ones we really need to target are those in Democratic districts, where a more progressive Dem. would beat a Repub.

 

What I did was go through the list of 86, find out how long each had been in Congress, how liberal they were on other issues, and what the district was like.  Then I rated each as ‘not a priority’, ‘moderate priority’, or ‘HIGH PRIORITY’; on a few, I added “GO GET HIM!”.  

These ratings are about primarying, only!  Clearly, we would be better off with 435 Democrats, all of whom vote like my guy (Jerrold Nadler, NY-8).  Well, maybe someday.  I have some ideas for what to do about that at the end.  But for now, I think we need to concentrate on these people.  Also, I did not take into account whether a primary challenge would WIN.  The reason I didn’t is because even a challenge is valuable.    

    Jason Altmire (PA 4) is a first term congressperson from a Republican district (54-45 Bush over Kerry).  He narrowly (52-48) beat Melissa Hart, who was bad news.  On other issues, he seems pretty good.  Leave him be.

    Robert Andrews (NJ 1) was elected in 1990.  The district is solidly Democratic (61-39 Kerry).  His record is generally moderate.  HIGH PRIORITY.  Mahdi Ibn-Ziyad is running.

   Joe Baca (CA 43) was first elected in 1999.  This is a solidly Democratic district (58-41 Kerry).  Baca is, in the Almanac of Am. Politics words “one of the most conservative CA Dems”.  HIGH PRIORITY. Joanne Gilbert is running

   Brian Baird (WA 03) was first elected in 1998.  This is a tight district (50-48 Bush over Kerry) that Baird wins easily (62% an 63% in recent elections). Not a priority.

   John Barrow (GA 12) was elected in 2004.  This district is moderately Democratic (54-46 Kerry), and Barrow is, at best, a moderate. He could easily be replaced with a leftist, possibly an African American, as the district is 40% AA.  The district is also getting more D over time.  HIGH PRIORITY  Update [2007-5-27 10:17:34 by plf515]: per the comments, apparently this district was just changed and is no longer so Democratic, so this is a moderate priority

       Melissa Bean (IL 8) was first elected in 2004. This is Republican territory (56-44 Bush over Kerry) and, while Bean is no lefty, she’s probably as progressive as this district will go.  Not a priority.

   Shelley Berkley (NV 01) was elected in 1998.  This is a solid Democratic district (57-41 Kerry).  Berkley has faced primaries before, and won easily, nevertheless, her fairly moderate record makes her a HIGH PRIORITY. No opponents now, but filing deadline is May 16

   Marion Berry (AR 01), first elected 1996.  A tossup district (52-48 Bush over Kerry).  Berry is a very conservative Dem. but in AR 01, I don’t know that we will do better.  Not a priority.

   Sanford Bishop (GA 02) was first elected in 1992.  This is another case of a conservative Dem. winning in Republican territory (54-46 Bush over Kerry).  Bishop is probably the most conservative guy in the Black caucus, and this district is 44% Black.  So, could a more liberal Black get enough of the White vote to win?  Maybe.  Moderate priority

   Dan Boren (OK 2) was elected in 2004.  This district is highly Republican (Bush 59-41 over Kerry).  Although Boren is a conservative Dem. he’s better than a Repub. Not a priority.

   Leonard Boswell (IA 03) has been in since 1996.  This is a swing district, Bush won by 300 votes.  Boswell wins narrowly, and a more liberal Dem. might get crushed.  Not a priority

  Rick Boucher (VA 09) was first elected in 1982.  VA 09 is overwhelminghly Repub. (Bush got 59% against Kerry) and Boucher is very popular (he wins 60% and more).  He’s very active on internet issues, from what I gathered, he’s good on those.  Not a priority – but see Va Dare’s comment.  

  Allen Boyd (FL 02) was first elected in 1996 in a district that is fairly Republican (Bush got 54 against Kerry).  Boyd is a conservative Democrat.  He ran unopposed in 06, it might be time to challenge.  Moderate priority

   Nancy Boyda (KS 01) was elected in 2006 in an overwhelmingly Repub. district (Bush 59-41 over Kerry), for this district, I think Boyda is as good as it gets.  Not a priority.

   GK Butterfield (NC 01) was elected in 2004.  This is a strongly Democratic district (Kerry got 57%).  Butterfield won in a special election to replace a criminal.  He’s pretty  good on most issues, but it’s time to hold his feet to the fire.  He ran unopposed in 2006, let’s make that not happen in ’08.  HIGH PRIORITY.

   Dennis Cardoza (CA 18) was first elected in 2002 in a swing district (Bush won by a few hundred votes).  He was co-chair of the Blue Dog Democrats.  I dunno.  Moderate priority

  Chris Carney (PA 10) is a freshman from an overwhelmingly Repub district (Bush 60-40 over Kerry).  Not a priority.

   Ben Chandler (KY 06) was first elected in 2004.  Not only is this Repub territory (Bush got 58%) but Chandler is popular.  Not a priority.

   Jim Clyburn (SC 6) was elected in 1992.  This is overwhelmingly a Democratic CD (Kerry got 61%). Considering this, and considering Clyburn’s relatively moderate record on other issues, I’d say we could make this a HIGH PRIORITY.  No primary opponents, deadline is March 31.

   Jim Cooper (TN 5) was elected in 2002, but was in from 1983-1995, as well.  This is a pretty Democratic CD (Kerry got 52%).  Cooper might seek some higher office, in which case, we might try for something here, but otherwise, I’d say it’s a moderate priority, since I can’t see us touching  Cooper

   Jim Costa (CA 20) was first elected in 2004.  This is a moderately Democratic district (Kerry got 51%, Gore got 55%).  Costa is conservative, for a Dem, and may be vulnerable in this heavily Latino (63%) district.  Moderate priority

   Bud Cramer (AL 05) has been in Congress since 1990.  He’s another conservative Dem in Republican country (Bush got 60%) and he wins by big margins.  Not a priority.  

   Henry Cuellar (TX 28) was elected in 2004.  This is a swing district, it went narrowly for Gore and narrowly against Kerry.  Moderate priority

    Susan Davis (CA 53) was elected in 2000.  This is an overwhelmingly Democratic district (Kerry got 61%). She wins easily, but could be more liberal and still win easily. HIGH PRIORITY. No primary opponents yet, and deadline is March 7

  Lincoln Davis (side note, did you know there are 8 people named Davis in Congress?) (TN 04) was elected in 2002.  This is another Republican district, Bush got 58% against Kerry.  Davis is conservative for a Democrat, but the choice is a Repub.  Not a priority.

   Norm Dicks (WA 6) has been in Congress since 1976.  This district is moderately Democratic (Kerry got 53%, Gore 52%) and Dicks is in the middle of the party.  I can’t see us getting anyone to challenge this guy – 30 years of serving is a lot – but if we COULD, it would be great.  Moderate priority.

   John Dingell (MI 15) has been in Congress longer than I’ve been alive, and I’m 47.  He got in in 1955.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 62%), and Dingell is getting old (he turns 81 this summer).  A primary opponent might get him to retire.  Lynn Rivers might be interested, she lost her seat due to redistricting (and lost the primary to Dingell). (Odd tidbit, Dingell’s father also served in Congress, starting in 1932 – that’s 75 years of a Dingell representing MI)

   Joe Donnelly (IN 02) is a freshman rep. This is a Repub. district (Bush got 56% against Kerry) and Donnelly had lost to the previous rep (Chocala) in 2004.  I’d say it’s not a priority.

   Chet Edwards (TX 17), first elected in 1990,  may be the Democrat in the most Republican district.  TX 17 went 70% for Bush.  Of course, part of that is Texas; still, this is TX, this seat was redistricted for the Repubs, and Edwards IS a Democrat (albeit a conservative one).  Despite being in for all that time, his recent elections have not been cakewalks.  Not a priority.

   Brad Ellsworth (IN 08) is a freshman in an overwhelmingly Republican district (62% for Bush over Kerry).  He replaced Hostetler, who was a real right-winger who won big in previous elections, even when he was outspent hugely.  Ellsworth is no progressive, that’s for sure, but he’s way better than anyone else we could get here.  Not a priority.

   Rahm Emanuel (IL 05) was first elected in 2002 in a strongly Democratic district (67% for Kerry).  Although he was head of the DCCC for 2006, it’s time he acted like a REAL Democrat, ALL the time.  HIGH PRIORITY. Well, it would be nice, but not realistic, and the deadline is passed.

  Bob Etheridge (NC 02) was first elected in 1996.  This is a somewhat Republican district (54% Bush over Kerry) and yet Etheridge wins easily (over 60%).  Etheridge is actually pretty good for this district, but he might run for Senate, maybe challenging Dole in 2008.  Not a priority.  Likely to go Repub if Etheridge gives up the seat.

   Gabrielle Giffords (AZ 08) is a freshman in a moderately Repub district (Bush got 53%).  She won pretty easily in an open seat (54-42) and is fairly progressive on other issues. Not a priority.

   Kirsten Gillibrand (NY 20) is yet another freshman in a Republican leaning district (Bush got 54% over Kerry).  So far, Gillibrand looks good on other issues, and so I don’t think this is a priority.  

   Charles Gonzalez (TX 20) was first elected in 1998.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 55%) and Gonzalez is too moderate.  HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent and the deadline has passed.

   Bart Gordon (TN 6) was first elected in 1984 in this Republican district (Bush got 60% against Kerry, and tied with Gore despite this being Gore’s old seat).  Gordon is a moderate, but I don’t see this district going more progressive.  Not a priority.

   Gene Green (TX 29) was first elected in 1992.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 56%, Gore got 57% and this is Texas!).  Green is a moderate….too moderate for this safe seat.  The district is 66% Latino….any progressive Latinos want to make this a HIGH PRIORITY? No opponent, deadline has passed.

   Herseth Sandlin (SD AL) was elected in 2004.  She is certainly a conservative Dem.  South Dakota is interesting – 60% for Bush, but Johnson won the Senate seat in a nail biter, and he’s far more liberal than Herseth.  I’m going to claim ignorance and make it a moderate priority.

   Baron Hill (IN 09) is a freshman in a Republican district (Bush got 59% against Kerry).  He’s no progressive, but he and Mike Sodrel (R) have been trading this seat (Hill won in 2002, Sodrel in 2004, Hill in 2006) and I’m thinking that Hill is better than a Repub.  Not a priority

   Ruben Hinojosa (TX 15) got elected in 1996, in this swing district (Bush got 55% against Kerry, but beat Gore by only 109 votes).  He’s a moderate Democrat, and this district was redistricted to favor the Repubs.  I’d say it’s not a priority.

   Tim Holden (PA 17) was first elected in 1992.  This is a Republican district (Bush got 58%) and Holden has had serious challengers in 2004 and 2002, and might again in 2008.  Holden is a conservative Democrat, but that’s the district.  Not a priority.

   Steny Hoyer (MD 05) was first elected in 1981.  This is a solid Democratic district (Kerry got 57%) and Hoyer has a lot to answer for.  GO GET HIM!  HIGH PRIORITY.   James Cusick is running, but might be worse than Hoyer, and his web page makes him look like a nut.

   Steve Kagen (WI 8) is another freshman in a fairly Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry).  He won a close race in an open seat in 2006, and he appears pretty solidly liberal.  Write him letters and ask what he was doing, but this isn’t a priority.

   Paul Kanjorski (PA 11) was first elected in 1984.  This district is moderately Democratic (53% for Kerry, 54% for Gore), and Kanjorski is moderate.  Kanjorski always wins easily, so let’s make this a HIGH PRIORITY.  Maybe a primary challenge will induce retirement. No opponent, and the deadline has passed

   Dale Kildee (MI 05) was first elected in 1976.  This is a solidly Democratic district (59% Kerry) and Kildee isn’t bad, but he could be a lot better.  He turns 78 this fall, and it’s time to ‘spend time with his family’.  GO GET HIM! HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent, deadline past.

   Ron Kind (WI 03) was first elected in 1996 in this swing district (Kerry got 51%).  Kind is a moderate, and this is a moderate district – but he wins easily in general elections, so this is moderate priority

   Nick Lampson (TX 22) took over from the Devil Incarnate aka Tom DeLay.   He’s actually not too bad on some issues (Progressive Punch gives him a 76%) and this is a right wing district (Bush got 64%).  I’d be surprised if Lampson holds on, and certainly this is not a priority.

   Rick Larsen (WA 02) was first elected in 2000.  This is a swing district (Kerry got 51%) and Larsen has been OK on other issues.  He doesn’t usually win easily in the general, so I’d say this is not a priority.

   Sander Levin (MI 12) was first elected in 1982 in this solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 61%).  But Levin is a solidly liberal guy on most issues….still, this district is solidly Democratic, so if Levin can’t explain his vote (and I’d like to see him try!) this is a HIGH PRIORITY (also, Levin is 76, he may retire soon). No opponent but the filing deadline is in May.

   Dan Lipinski (IL 03) was first elected in 2004 in this solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 59%).  This guy inherited the seat from his father, and proudly (???) claims to be the most conservative Democrat in the Illinois delegation.  GO GET HIM. HIGH PRIORITY!  Well, we tried.

   Tim Mahoney (FL 16) is the guy who took over from Mark Foley.  This is  a fairly Republican district, and Foley probably would have won if not for  well….. you know.  I don’t know what Mahoney was doing, but this is not a priority.

   Jim Marshall (GA 08 aka 03) is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district (55% Bush over Kerry) (note, this used to be GA 03).  Marshall faces tough general elections very often, and thus this race is not a priority.

   Jim Matheson (UT 02) was first elected in 2000.  Of all CDs that send Democrats to DC, this may be the most Republican (66% for Bush).  Matheson is, to be sure, a conservative Democrat.  But this is Utah. Not a priority.

   Mike McIntyre (NC 07) was first elected in 1996.  This is Republican territory (Bush got 56% against Kerry) and McIntyre is the right wing of the Democratic party.  A primary challenge might even induce him to run as a Repub (and likely win).  Not a priority.

   Kendrick Meek (FL 17) was first elected in 2002.  This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country (83% for Kerry!). Meek is wrong a LOT. This seat should be held by a flaming LIBERAL – and Meek was unopposed in 02, 04 and 06. Why??? GO GET HIM.  HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent yet, but they have until May 2.

   Charles Melancon (LA 03) was first elected in 2004 in this fairly Republican district (Bush got 58% against Kerry).  Melancon is the right wing of the Democratic party, and I’m betting the people of LA are pretty pissed at Repubs about now.  HIGH PRIORITY.  

Update [2007-5-27 9:25:40 by plf515]: But see comments.  I appear to be wrong about Louisiana

   Harry Mitchell (AZ 05)  is a freshman in a fairly Republican district (Bush got 54% against Kerry). He seems decent on other issues.  Not a priority.

   Alan Mollohan (WV 01) was first elected in 1982.  He typically wins easily in this heavily Republican district.  He’s not my favorite Democrat, but not as far right as some, and this is not a priority.

   Dennis Moore (KS 03) was first elected in 1998.  This is a Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry), and Moore isn’t a bad guy.  Not a priority.

   John Murtha (PA 12) has been in Congress since 1974.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry only got 51%, but Gore got 55%) and Murtha is pretty conservative.  He won’t be easy to beat, but let’s go for it.  HIGH PRIORITY.

No opponent, deadline past.

   Solomon Ortiz (TX 27) was first elected in 1982.  Considering this is Texas, Bush didn’t do well here (55% against Kerry, but he lost to Gore by a few hundred votes) and Ortiz is the right wing of the party.  HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent, deadline past.

   Collin Peterson (MN 07) was first elected in 1990.  This is a pretty Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry) but this guy is way to the right of the party.  The Almanac of American Politics calls him a “different kind of Democrat” – yeah, the Republican kind!  HIGH PRIORITY. Update [2007-5-27 20:19:31 by plf515]: But see comments below, this may not be as high priority as I think

   Earl Pomeroy (ND AL) has been in Congress since 1992.  I don’t get ND. It gave Bush 63%, but both senators, and lone representative are all Democrats! OTOH, its Republican governor won in a landslide.  I’ll call it not a priority, but if someone knows something?

   Nick Rahall (WV 03) was first elected in 1976.  This is a swing district (it went for Bush over Kerry, but Gore over Bush).  Rahall seems pretty decent on the issues, so I can’t say this is a priority

   Ciro Rodriguez (TX 23) just beat Henry Bonilla in 2006.  This is a solidly Repub district, and Rodriguez is not a bad guy (83 on Progressive Punch). Not a priority.

   Mike Ross (AR 04) was first elected in 2000.  This is a swing district (Bush over Kerry, Gore over Bush); Ross, though, seems to run unopposed.  Should we change that?  Moderate priority.

   Dutch Ruppersberger (MD 02) was first elected in 2002.  This district is moderately Democratic (54% for Kerry) and Ruppersberger is in the middle of the Democratic party.  Still, a challenge could be good – this one isn’t going Repub. Moderate priority.

   John Salazar (CO 03) was first elected in 2004.  This is a moderately Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry), Salazar isn’t too bad (77 on Progressive Punch) and I say it’s not a priority.

   Allyson Schwartz (PA 13) was first elected in 2004.  This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 56%), and, in general, Schwartz is a liberal (88 on Progresive Punch), but still, what was she thinking? Moderate priority.  

   David Scott (GA 13) was first elected in 2002.  This is a solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 64%) and Scott is a conservative Democrat.  HIGH PRIORITY.

   Joe Sestak (PA 07) is a freshman.  This is a swing district (Kerry got 53%). Sestak has been good on other Iraq votes, so I’d say let’s try to figure out what he was thinking before deciding.

   Heath Shuler (NC 11) is a freshman, and this is a solidly Repub district (Bush got 58% against Kerry).  Not a priority.

   Ike Skelton (MO 04) has been in Congress since 1976.  He’s a blue dog, but this is a Republican district (Bush got 64% against Kerry) and this is not a priority.

   Vic Snyder (AR 02) was first elected in 1996.  This is a swing district (Bush got 51% against Kerry) and Snyder is pretty good on other issues.  Not a priority.

   Zack Space (OH 18) is a freshman.  This is Bush territory (Bush got 57% against Kerry).  Space won big in 2006, he seems to be right on most things, so this is not a priority.

  John Spratt (SC 5) was first elected in 1982.  This is a Republican district (Bush got 58% against Kerry) and, that considered, Spratt is not bad (76 on Progressive Punch).  Not a priority

   Bart Stupak (MI 01) was first elected in 1992.  This is a swing district (Bush got 53% against Kerry), Stupak is scarcely a liberal, but not really a true blue dog.  He often faces general election problems, so this is not a priority.

   John Tanner (TN 08) was first elected in 1988.  This is a swing district (Bush beat Kerry, Gore beat Bush).  Tanner has won all the general elections easily, making this a moderate priority.

   Gene Taylor (MS 4) was first elected in 1989 in this strongly Republican district (Bush got 68% against Kerry).  Taylor is a conservative Democrat, but he is the best we are going to get here.  If he retires or gets primaried, this would be Repub.  Not a priority

   Bennie Thompson (MS 02) was first elected in 1993.  This is a solidly

Democratic district (Kerry got 59%) and it deserves a solidly Democratic rep.  HIGH PRIORITY.  Dorothy Benford is running

   Peter Visclosky (IN 01) was first elected in 1984, and this is another moderately Democratic district (Kerry got 55%).  Visclosky is pretty liberal, so I want to know what he’s thinking, or else, HIGH PRIORITY.  No opponent, deadline next week

   Tim Walz (MN 01) is a freshman in a swing district (Bush got 51% against Kerry).  Walz seems good on most issues, and this is not a priority.

   Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL 20) was first elected in 2004.  This is a solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 64%) and Schultz wins easily.  She’s generally pretty liberal, but, I’d say, a moderate priority

   Charles Wilson (OH 06) is a freshman in a swing district (Bush got 51% vs. Kerry).  He has generally been pretty liberal, and is likely to be challenged by Republicans.  Not a priority

Summary:

Of these 86 Democrats, 53 (if I’ve counted right) are in districts that went for Bush over Kerry.  Most of these 53 are on the conservative side of the Democratic party, but that is hardly surprising.  For those votes to change, the constituencies have to change.  So, when I say “not a priority” I mean a PRIMARY is not a priority.  But grass roots efforts ARE a priority…..make people see that Republicanism is stupid!  This is especially true in the many swing districts.  

Again, if I counted correctly, there are 25 high priority candidates on the list.  That’s a LOT.  We won’t win 25 primaries….but maybe we will move 25 representatives a bit to the left.  And there are a few who might retire.  

Next steps:

 1. In the swing districts, let’s try to set up campaigns to influence the constituencies.  

 2. In the high priority districts, how can we find people to run?

 3. Have we got a list of vulnerable Repubs?  I can work on one, but I don’t want to duplicate effort.

 4. Do something similar for the Senate – a list of Democrats is here

Update [2007-5-27 11:0:26 by plf515]:

5. Make a list of Democrats in vulnerable seats who did the right thing, and support them

sources:

Almanac of American Politics

Washington Post votes database

National Journal ratings

Progressive punch

I’ve now covered all 50 states in my congressional races by state series.

Whew!

But how about a summary?

 I hear you ask (I hear things….)

Well, I am glad you  asked!  It’s below the fold

For details, go to the relevant diary.

State                Safe Dem    Vul Dem    Vul Rep    Safe Rep    Filing deadline  

Northeast          53         15          11         10

 New England         18          3           1          0

      Connecticut         3           1           1          0           5/3/08

      Maine               1           1           0          0           3/15/08

      Massachusetts      10           0           0          0           6/3/98

      New Hampshire       1           1           0          0           6/13/08

      Rhode Island        2           0           0          0           6/25/08

      Vermont             1           0           0          0           7/21/08

  MidAtlantic         35          6           10         10  

      New Jersey          7         0           3          3           4/7/08

      New York           19           4           1          5           7/18/08

      Pennsylvania        9           2           6          2           2/12/08

Midwest           40          8          19         32

 East North Central 29          4          14        22

      Illinois             8          2           5          4           closed

      Indiana              5          0           2          2           2/22/08

      Michigan             6          0           3          6           5/13/08

      Ohio                 6          1           4          7           closed

      Wisconsin            4          1           0          3           7/8/08

 West North Central  12          4         5           10  

      Iowa                  2         1            2          0          3/14/08

      Kansas                1         1            0          2          6/10/08

      Minnessota            4         1            3          0          7/15/08

      Missouri              4         0            0          5    \     3/25/08

      Nebraska              0         0            0          3          3/3/08

      North Dakota          0         1            0          0          4/11/08

      South Dakota          1         0            0          0          3/25/08

South              57          8          14         75

 South Atlantic      30          5           9            36

      Delaware              0         0            1           0         7/25/08

      Florida               8         1            5          11         5/2/08

      Georgia               4         2            0           7         5/2/08

      Maryland              5         1            0           2         closed

      North Carolina        6         1            1           5         2/29/08

      South Carolina        2         0            0           4         3/31/08

      Virginia              3         0            1           7         4/11/08

      West Virginia         2         0            1           0         closed

 East South Central   10         1            2          13  

      Alabama               2         0            1           4          4/4/08

      Kentucky              1         1            1           3          closed

      Mississippi           2         0            0           2          closed

      Tennessee             5         0            0           4          4/3/08

 West South Central   17         2            3          26  

      Arkansas              3         0            0           1          3/10/08

      Louisiana             2         0            2           3          7/11/08

      Oklahoma              1         0            0           4          6/4/08

      Texas                11         2            1          18          closed

West                52         5            14         27

 Mountain              9         2             7         10  

      Arizona             2         2             3            1          6/4/08

      Colorado            4         0             1            2          5/28/08

      Idaho               0         0             0            2          3/21/08

      Montana             0         0             0            1          3/20/08

      Nevada              1         0             1            1          5/16/08

      New Mexico          1         0             2            0          2/12/08

      Utah                1         0             0            2          3/17/08

      Wyoming             0         0             1            0          5/30/08

 Pacific            43         3             7           17  

      Alaska              0         0             1            0          6/2/08

      California         32         2             5           14          3/7/08

      Hawaii              2         0             0            0          7/22/08

      Oregon              3         1             0            1          3/11/08

      Washington          6         0             1            2          6/6/08

Grand Total         185            18          58            144  

Some thoughts: I’ve listed as ‘vulnerable’ some races that aren’t that vulnerable  – safe seats are probably very safe

If each party loses 1% of safe seats and 20% of vul seats, then we lose 2+4=6 and gain 12 + 1 = 13 for a pickup of 7 seats; but that’s without any waves or momentum or anything.  

You can find all the previous entries here: list of diaries

Wrapping up this series…. states with very late filing dates – after mid-July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NY has 29 congressional districts: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans

VT has 1 district, with a Democrat

HI has 2 districts, both Democrats

DE has 1 district, with a Republican

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

The districts held by Democrats are



                                        Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent       Challenger?        rating

HI-01    D+7   .00       Abercrombie        No               Safe

HI-02    D+10  .01       Hirono             No               Safe

NY-01    D+3   .69       Bishop             Yes              Safe

NY-02    D+8   .68       Israel             No               Safe

NY-04    D+9   .52       McCarthy           No               Safe

NY-05    D+18  .09       Ackerman           No               Safe

NY-06    D+38  .03       Meeks              No               Safe

NY-07    D+28  .08       Crowley            No               Safe

NY-08    D+28  .23       Nadler             No               Safe

NY-09    D+14  .16       Weiner             No               Safe

NY-10    D+41  .04       Towns           Only primary        Safe for Dem

NY-11    D+40  .04       Clarke             No               Safe

NY-12    D+34  .05       Velazquez          No               Safe

NY-14    D+26  .30       Maloney            No               Safe

NY-15    D+43  .09       Rangel             No               Safe

NY-16    D+43  .07       Serrano            No               Safe

NY-17    D+21  .17       Engel              No               Safe

NY-18    D+10  .58       Lowey              No               Safe

NY-19    R+1   .79       Hall               Yes              Vul

NY-20    R+3   .83       Gillebrand         Yes              Slight vul

NY-21    D+9   .48       McNulty (retiring) No               Vul

NY-22    D+6   .55       Hinchey            Yes              Safe  

NY-24    R+1   .73       Arcuri             No               Slight vul

NY-27    D+7   .52       Higgins            No               Safe

NY-28    D+15  .18       Slaughter          No               Safe

VT-AL    D+9   .84       Welch              No               Safe



Trivia: HI-01 has the highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino: 75%.  NY-11 is the smallest district in the country (just 12 sq. miles).  NY-15 and 16 are tied for the most Democratic Cook PVI in the country.

Those held by Republicans

DE-AL D+5 .50

DE is a small state, made outsize by politics

Castle, first elected in 1992, is the last remaining Republican in the state government; he’s among the most moderate Republicans.  In 2006 he was held under 60% for the first time since he got in. He might yet retire, as he has been ill.

Confirmed challengers: Jerry Northington who is possum on dailyKos and Karen Hartley-Nagle

NY-03 D+3 .75

NY-03 is the middle of Long Island – the eastern part of Nassau and the southern edge of the western part of Suffolk

King, first elected in 1992, was held to 56% in 2006 against David Mejias, even though King spent more than twice as much

There are no confirmed challengers – very disappointing, this is a competitive district!

NY-13 D+1 .30

NY-13 is mostly Staten Island, which is technically NY City, but is really different from the rest of the city

Fosella, first elected in 1997, has had closer races lately: He got 59% in 2004, and 57% in 2006.  In 2006, he outspent Stephen Harrison by 11-1.

Harrison is running again; as is Domenic Recchia (no web site).  

NY-23 R+0  .81

NY-23 is the northernmost district in NY, bordering Canada and VT

McHugh, first elected in 1992, has won easily without raising much cash

His challenger this time is Mike Oot

NY-25 D+3 .55

NY-25 is the northern part of the thin part of NY, bordering Lake Ontario and including Syracuse

Walsh, first elected in 1988, is retiring

No confirmed Republicans, but on our side Dan Maffei is running

NY-26 R+3 .70

NY-26 is in northeastern NY, not quite bordering Lake Ontario (see NY-28)

Reynolds, first elected in 1998, has had close and very expensive elections.  In 2006, he spent over $5 million and beat Jack Davis 52-48 (Davis spent almost $2.5 million)

This year, confirmed challengers are Jon Powers and Alice Kryzan

NY-29 R+5 .72

NY-29 is the southern part of the thin part of NY, bordering PA

Kuhl, first elected in 2004, had a very close race in 2006 against Eric Massa

Massa is running again

Summary

DE-AL might be competitive; if Castle retires, it’s a likely pickup

NY-03 ought to have a good challenger.

NY-13 is competitive.

NY-25 looks interesting

NY-26 and NY-29 are competitive

Wrapping up this series…. states with very late filing dates – after mid-July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NY has 29 congressional districts: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans

VT has 1 district, with a Democrat

HI has 2 districts, both Democrats

DE has 1 district, with a Republican

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

The districts held by Democrats are



                                        Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent       Challenger?        rating

HI-01    D+7   .00       Abercrombie        No               Safe

HI-02    D+10  .01       Hirono             No               Safe

NY-01    D+3   .69       Bishop             Yes              Safe

NY-02    D+8   .68       Israel             No               Safe

NY-04    D+9   .52       McCarthy           No               Safe

NY-05    D+18  .09       Ackerman           No               Safe

NY-06    D+38  .03       Meeks              No               Safe

NY-07    D+28  .08       Crowley            No               Safe

NY-08    D+28  .23       Nadler             No               Safe

NY-09    D+14  .16       Weiner             No               Safe

NY-10    D+41  .04       Towns           Only primary        Safe for Dem

NY-11    D+40  .04       Clarke             No               Safe

NY-12    D+34  .05       Velazquez          No               Safe

NY-14    D+26  .30       Maloney            No               Safe

NY-15    D+43  .09       Rangel             No               Safe

NY-16    D+43  .07       Serrano            No               Safe

NY-17    D+21  .17       Engel              No               Safe

VT-AL    D+9   .84       Welch              No               Safe



Trivia: HI-01 has the highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino: 75%.  NY-11 is the smallest district in the country (just 12 sq. miles).  NY-15 and 16 are tied for the most Democratic Cook PVI in the country.

Those held by Republicans

DE-AL D+5 .50

DE is a small state, made outsize by politics

Castle, first elected in 1992, is the last remaining Republican in the state government; he’s among the most moderate Republicans.  In 2006 he was held under 60% for the first time since he got in. He might yet retire, as he has been ill.

Confirmed challengers: Jerry Northington who is possum on dailyKos and Karen Hartley-Nagle

NY-03 D+3 .75

NY-03 is the middle of Long Island – the eastern part of Nassau and the southern edge of the western part of Suffolk

King, first elected in 1992, was held to 56% in 2006 against David Mejias, even though King spent more than twice as much

There are no confirmed challengers – very disappointing, this is a competitive district!

NY-13 D+1 .30

NY-13 is mostly Staten Island, which is technically NY City, but is really different from the rest of the city

Fosella, first elected in 1997, has had closer races lately: He got 59% in 2004, and 57% in 2006.  In 2006, he outspent Stephen Harrison by 11-1.

Harrison is running again; as is Domenic Recchia (no web site).  

Summary

DE-AL might be competitive; if Castle retires, it’s a likely pickup

NY-03 ought to have a good challenger.

NY-13 is competitive.