plf515 – Page 7 – Swing State Project

Congressional races by state KS, NH, OK, RI, WA

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating KS-02 R+7 .64 Boyda Yes Vul KS-03 R+4 .50 Moore Yes Mostly safe NH-01 R+0 .78 Shea-Porter Yes Probably safe NH-02 D+3 .84 Hodes Yes Hard to say OK-02 R+5 .25 Boren No Safe RI-01 D+16 .38 Kennedy No Safe RI-02 D+13 .51 Langevin No Safe WA-01 D+7 .46 Inslee Yes Safe WA-02 D+3 .61 Larsen No Safe WA-03 D+0 .61 Baird No Safe WA-06 D+6 .33 Dicks No Safe WA-07 D+30 .15 McDermott No Safe WA-09 D+6 .26 Smith No Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2 .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that). She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable

Congressional races by state: NV, CO, WY, AK, MA

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in late May and early June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of tShe district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NV has 3 districts, 2 Republican, 1 Democratic

CO has 7 districts, 3 Republican, 4 Democratic

WY has 1 district, held by a Republican

AK has 1 district, held by a Republican

MA has 10 seats, all Democratic

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating CO-01 D+18 .28 DeGette No Safe CO-02 D+8 .62 Udall (retiring Yes Prob safe for to run for senate) Yes Dems CO-03 R+6 .64 Salazar No Safe CO-07 D+2 .40 Perlmutter No Safe MA-01 D+15 .67 Olver No Safe MA-02 D+13 .56 Neal No Safe MA-03 D+13 .54 McGovern Yes Safe MA-04 D+19 .58 Frank Yes Safe MA-05 D+11 .56 Tsongas No Mostly safe MA-06 D+11 .66 Tierney Yes Safe MA-07 D+19 .48 Markey No Safe MA-08 D+33 .11 Capuano No Safe MA-09 D+15 .45 Lynch No Safe MA-10 D+9 .59 Delahunt No Safe NV-01 D+9 .21 Berkley Yes Safe

Those held by Republicans:

AK-AL R+14

Alaska. 1 person per square mile. It’s BIG. If that were the population density of Manhattan, where I live, there would be 23 people here.

Young, first elected in 1973, had his toughest race since 1994 in 2006: He was held to 57% by Diane Benson, even though Benson spent 1/10 as much. He might retire. He’s tied to Abramoff, he’s tied to VECO, he’s gotten illegal cash. And he’s getting old.

Confirmed challengers include: Ethan Berkowitz (who was leading Young 49-42 in a poll commissioned in December by Daily Kos); Jake Metcalf ; and the 2006 candidate: Diane Benson ; and possibly Anchorage mayor Mark Begrich.

CO-04 R+9 .64

CO-04 is shaped like a backwards F, with the long side bordering NE and KS, the top bordering NE and WY.

Musgrave, first elected in 2002, has gotten declining percentages: 55% in 2002, 51% in 2004, and 46% in 2006.

This year, she is being challenged by Betsey Markey

CO-05 R+16 .49

CO-05 is pretty much the center of the state, including Colorado Springs

Lamborn, first elected in 2006, won with substantially less than his predecessor usually did.

There is no confirmed challenger

CO-06 R+10 .83

CO-06 is in the middle of the state, including Littleton and Castle Rock

Tancredo, first elected in 1998, is retiring.

The only confirmed Democrat is Mike Collins

NV-02 R+9 .51

NV-02 is nearly all of the state, except for the Las Vegas area. It is the largest district, except for single district states.

Heller, first elected in 2006, had a narrow (50-45) win then.

There are no confirmed challengers

NV-03 D+1 .38

NV-03 is a Y shaped district, composed of most of the suburbs of Las Vegas

Porter, first elected in 2002, had a close race in 2006 against Tessa Hafen (he won 48-47, and outspent her 2-1).

There are three confirmed challengers: Andrew Martin ; Barry Michaels ; and Robert Daskas.

WY-AL R+19 .64

Wyoming has fewer people than any other state

Cubin, first elected in 1994, is retiring

Several Republicans are running, and one Democrat: Gary Trauner who lost by only 1,002 votes in 2006, and who is shown with a slight lead in a poll.

Summary:

AK is a free-for-all

CO, our seats are safe, CO-04 might be competitive, and CO-06, while a Republican district, has an open seat.

MA – well, we can’t pick up any seats here! But I don’t see us losing any either

NV-03 has some potential, it seems.

WY-AL is also possible

Congressional races by state: AZ

AZ has 8 congressional districts: 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating AZ04 D+14 .20 Pastor No Safe AZ05 R+4 .47 Mitchell Yes Slight vul AZ07 D+10 .27 Grijalva Yes Safe AZ08 R+1 .46 Giffords Yes Slight vul

As for those held by Republicans:

AZ-01 R+2 .19

AZ-01 is the entire northeastern part of AZ, except for the odd blob in the middle that is AZ-02

Renzi, first elected in 2002, had close races in 2002 and 2006, and is retiring.

Confirmed Democrats include: Allan Affeldt ; Howard Shanker ; Ann Kirkpatrick and Mary Kim Titla and several others who might run. This looks like a good pickup possibility.

AZ-02 R+9 .47

AZ-02 is one of the most bizarrely shaped districts. It includes the western part of AZ (bordering NV, CA and UT, and then a thin strip of land into a blob in interior AZ, and another blob in the south to the western suburbs of Phoenix

Franks, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against underfunded opponents.

The Democratic challenger is John Thrasher , who lost in 2006 by 59-39, although he raised very little money.

AZ-03 R+6 .49

AZ-03 is the northern suburbs of Phoenix and Paradise Valley

Shadegg, first elected in 1994, was held under 60% in 2006 by Herb Paine, who raised less than $100,000.

The Democratic challenger is Bob Lord who has raised more money than Shadegg, and has more COH. Could get interersting.

AZ-06 R+12 .50

Flake, first elected in 2000, has not had a Democratic opponent since 2002.

In 2008, Richard Grayson

Summary

AZ-01 is definitely competitive, AZ-05 might be. I don’t know how vulnerable Mitchell and Giffords are.

Congressional races by state: NV, CO, WY, AK, MA

These are all states with filing deadlines in late May and early June

Those held by Republicans:

CO-06 R+10 .83

CO-06 is in the middle of the state, including Littleton and Castle Rock

Tancredo, first elected in 1998, is retiring.

The only confirmed Democrat is Mike Collins

Summary:

AK is a free-for-all

CO, our seats are safe, CO-04 might be competitive, and CO-06, while a Republican district, has an open seat.

MA – well, we can’t pick up any seats here! But I don’t see us losing any either

NV-03 has some potential, it seems.

Congressional races by state: FL, CT, MI

For previous diaries in this series, see here

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in early April

FL has 25 congressional districts, 9 Democratic and 16 Republican

CT has 5 districts, 1 Republican and 5 Democratic

MI has 15 districts, 6 Democratic, 9 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating CT-01 D+14 .46 Larson No Safe CT-02 D+8 .78 Courtney Yes Vul CT-03 D+12 .45 DeLauro No Safe CT-05 D+4 .62 Murphy Yes Prob safe FL-02 R+2 .46 Boyd Yes Prob safe FL-03 D+16 .09 Brown No Safe FL-11 D+11 .16 Castor Yes Safe FL-16 R+2 .51 Mahoney Yes Vul. FL-17 D+35 .05 Meek No Safe FL-19 D+21 .40 Wexler (only primary) Safe FL-20 D+18 .37 WassermanSchulz No Safe FL-22 D+4 .56 Klein Yes Prob. safe FL-23 D+29 .06 Hastings Yes Safe MI-01 R+2 .78 Stupak Yes Safe MI-05 D+12 .43 Kildee Yes Safe MI-12 D+13 .14 Levin No Safe MI-13 D+32 .06 Kilpatrick No Safe MI-14 D+33 .06 Conyers No R U Kidding? MI-15 D+13 .46 Dingell No Safe

(trivia note: Dingell is the only congressperson who’s been in my entire life. Not only that, but his father was the congressman from this district before he was…. from 1932 to 1957).

Those held by Republicans

CT-04 D+5 .63

CT-04 includes one of the wealthiest towns in the USA (Greenwich) but other towns, too – it has the 24th highest median income of any district, but only the 73rd lowest proportion in poverty. It’s the southern part of the state, with many NYC suburbs and exurbs, bordering NY and the Atlantic

Shays, first elected in 1987, may retire; even if he does not, this is prime pickup territory: Shays had tough races in 04 and 06.

One confirmed challenger: Jim Hines Hines, a former investment banker, could probably raise the money, and has an interesting bio.

FL-01 R+19 .40

FL-01 is the western part of the panhandle of FL, bordering AL and the gulf of Mexico; it has the highest proportion of veterans of any district in the country (of the top 10 districts, 5 are in FL…FL-05, FL-13, FL-14 and FL-15). This bodes well for Democrats, as this demographic group is changing from being hugely pro-Republican.

Miller, first elected in 2001, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

There are two confirmed challengers: Joe Roberts the 2006 candidate and Bryan James (no website as yet)

FL-04 R+16 .50

FL-04 is the northeast corner of FL, where the panhandle joins the pan, bordering GA and the Atlantic, and including eastern suburbs of Tallahassee and the (White)parts of Jacksonville. The 4th is an odd looking district, designed (it seems) to get all the Whites it can, while the 3rd gets all the Blacks it can

Crenshaw, first elected in 2000, has won easily when he has had an opponent.

There is no confirmed candidate, although the 2006 candidate seems like he’s running, at least, he thought so in October.

FL-05 R+5 .61

FL-05 is along the Gulf Coast where FL bends from East-West to North-South

Ginny Brown-White, first elected in 2002, won a very tough race in 2002 (she got less than 50%), won easily in 2004, but was held to 60% in 2006 although she outspent her opponent (John Russell) almost 10-1

Russell might run again, but the only confirmed challenger is David Werder (no web site)

FL-06 R+8 .50

FL-06 is interior FL, where there state is fattest.

Stearns, first elected in 1988, has won easily without raising much money

The (apparently) confirmed challenger is Dave Bruderly , who lost the last three times, albeit with decreasing margins.

FL-07

FL-07 is the northern part of the Atlantic coast of FL, including St. Augustine.

Mica, first elected in 1992. In 2006, he got 63%, but his opponent had only $11,000.

There are two confirmed challengers:

Faye Armitage

and

Clyde Malloy

FL-08

FL-08 is interior FL, running northwest from Orlando

Keller, first elected in 2000, promised to serve only 3 terms. Guess what? He lied. In 2006 he got a fairly strong challenge, winning 53-46 over Charlie Stuart.

He has several challengers this time:

Mike Smith ; Quoc Ba Van (intriguing….a first generation American, he’s a law student who’s also a champion weightlifter);

Alan Grayson (a really good website by a guy who has spent years suing contractors in Iraq) and

Alexander Fry (no website yet).

(Also, he’s being primaried by two people)

FL-09 R+4 .48

FL-09 is the western part of central FL, along the gulf coast, it completely surround FL-10, which is St Petersburg.

Bilirakis, first elected in 2006, succeeded his father in the district. He won, 56-44.

He has two confirmed challengers: John Dicks ; Mike van Hoek

FL-10 D+1 .35

FL-10 is between the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay. It is almost separated in two pieces by FL-11 (the connection in FL-10 is over water). FL-10 is 88% White. FL-11 is 48% White. Hmmm

Young, first elected in 1970, has an intriguing life story, and may be the only congressperson who doesn’t have a HS diploma. He has won easily, often unopposed. He may retire, as he will be 78 in 2008.

Samm Simpson , who lost in 2006, is running again. If Young retires, this will be a very competitive district.

FL-12 R+5 .41

FL-12 is as close to the middle of FL as any district, and extends west to the gulf coast.

Putnam, first elected in 2000, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2006, he had no Democratic opposition, but still got ‘only’ 70%

He does have a Democratic opponent in 2008: Doug Tudor who is on active duty in the Navy.

FL-13 R+5 .51

FL-13 is on the gulf coast and includes Sarasota

Buchanan, first elected in 2006, won (apparently) the closest election of the year, winning by 359 votes out of 237,000 cast (it’s not completely clear to me if anyone is still protesting this election in any real way).

The woman he beat Christine Jennings is running again, as is Mik LaFevers (per Wiki) but his website is down.

FL-14 R+10 .52

FL-14 is the gulf coast around Naples

Mack, first elected in 2004, won easily then and in 2006 against Robert Neeld, who had little money.

Neeld might run again, but the only confirmed challenger is Larry Byrnes

FL-15 R+4 .43

FL-15 is the Atlantic side of central FL, from Cocoa to Vero Beach

Weldon, first elected in 1994, has had a number of close races. In 2006, he got 56% against Bob Bowman, despite outspending him 8-1

Bob Bowman is running again (I love that bit on the right side “Constitutional Threat Advisory”); as is Steve Blythe

FL-18 R+4 .29

FL-18 is southeastern FL, including most of Miami and all of the Keys

Ros-Lehtinen, first elected in 1989, has won easily against underfunded opponents

A recently confirmed challenger is Annette Taddeo (see here for a bio).

FL-21 R+6 .34

FL-21 is a ? shaped district, just inland from the Atlantic, and including parts of Miami. It has the 8th highest proportion of Latinos of any district (and the 2nd highest outside of CA and TX)

Diaz-Balart, first elected in 1992, has mostly won easily. In 2006, though, he was held to 59% against Frank Gonzalez (running as a Democrat), who raised less than $20,000 and who is now running as a “Ron Paul Independent” (a what????) (in 2004, he ran as a libertarian)

This year, Diaz-Balart has a Republican challenger, the aforementioned Gonzalez, Richard Allbritton (a Democrat, who is running) Raul Martinez has just said he is running.

FL-24 R+3 .48

FL-24 is roughly in the middle of the Atlantic coast side of FL, going interior to Winter Park

Feeney, first elected in 2002, was unopposed in 2004, but in 2006 was held to 58% by Clint Curtis, who raised only $84,000.

Curtis is running again; as is Suzanne Kosmas and Garv Bhola. Curtis looks the most likely, and the most progressive.

FL-25 R+4 .38

FL-25 is the southern end of FL, including part of Miami

Diaz-Balart, first elected in 2002, was held to 58% in 2006 by Michael Calderon, who raised less than $40,000.

A recently confirmed challenger is Joe Garcia

MI-02 R+9 .74

MI-02 is the western part of MI, bordering Lake Michigan

Hoekstra, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

There are two confirmed challengers: Fred Johnson and Scott Killips who looks to be more progressive (see also this story by kossack PerfectStormer

MI-03 R+9 .59

MI-03 includes Grand Rapids

Ehlers, first elected in 1993, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

He has no confirmed opponents

MI-04 R+4 .80

MI-04 runs northwest to southeast, with the southeast being in the middle of the state and the northwest being on Lake Michigan

Camp, first elected in 1990, has won easily against underfunded opponents

This year, there is one confirmed challenger: Andrew Concannon

MI-06 R+2 .68

MI-06 is the southwest corner of MI, bordering Lake Michigan and IN

Upton, first elected in 1986, has won easily.

There are no confirmed challengers

MI-07 R+2 .77

MI-07 is the central part of southern MI including Battle Creek

Wahlberg, first elected in 2006, got only 50% of the vote despite having a 20-1 fundraising edge over Sharon Renier.

Partly because of that, this district is abuzz with challengers and potential challengers.

Confirmed challengers include Mark Schauer (no campaign site) and Jim Berryman

MI-08 R+2 .73

MI-08 include Lansing and suburbs

Rogers, first elected in 2000, was held to 55% in 2006.

There are no confirmed challengers, someone should go for this one!

MI-09 R+0 .58

MI-09 is centered on Pontiac, to the northwest of Detroit

Knollenberg, first elected in 1992, has not had easy races lately, and 2006 was the closest of all: He won 52-46 over Nancy Skinner, although he spent $3 million to her $400,000.

Confirmed challengers are: Gary Peters ; Rhonda Ross (site under construction); and the 2006 candidate: Nancy Skinner .

MI-10 R+4 .80

MI-10 is northeastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron

Miller, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents. She might run for Senate against Levin

There are no confirmed challengers

MI-11 R+1 .63

MI-11 is the far western suburbs of Detroit

McCotter, first elected in 2002, has not had easy races. In 2006, he won 54-43 against Tony Trippiano, despite spending 7 times as much

There are two confirmed challengers: Tom Spencer and Edward Kriewall (no websites for either)

Summary

CT-04 is definitely winnable even if Shays stays in. I am worried about Courtney, though.

FL-10 is competitive if and when Young retires. FL-13 is certainly competitive. FL-24 might be interesting, as could FL-21 and FL-25. I’m concerned about FL-16, Mahoney has several credible challengers.

MI-07 is certainly competitive, as is MI-09. MI-11 might be, depending on the opponents.

Congressional races by state: VA, ND, GA

For previous diaries in this series, see here .

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

I am going by filing deadline. These are all states with filing deadlines in April or beginning of May

VA has 11 congressional districts, 8 Republicans, 3 Democrats

ND has 1 district, with a Democrat

GA has 13 districts, 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating GA-02 D+2 .26 Bishop No Safe GA-04 D+22 .11 Johnson No Safe GA-05 D+25 .09 Lewis No Safe GA-08 R+8 .46 Marshall Yes Vul. GA-12 D+2 .34 Barrow Yes Vul. GA-13 D+10 .20 Scott Yes Safe ND-AL R+??? .61 Pomeroy No Unclear VA-03 D+18 .08 Scott No Safe VA-08 D+14 .25 Moran Yes Safe VA-09 R+7 .77 Boucher Yes Safe

As for seats held by Republicans

GA-01 R+13 .49

GA-01 is the southeastern corner of GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic

Kingston, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he’s had any opposition at all

His opponent this time is Bill Gillespie .

GA-03 R+18 .70

GA-03 is the western part of central GA, bordering AL

Westmoreland, first elected in 2004, won easily both times. He may run for Governor in 2010.

There’s no confirmed challenger, but several Democrats are considering running

GA-06 R+18 .72

GA-06 is in north central GA

Price, first elected in 2004, won unopposed in ’04 and easily in ’06

Several Democrats are considering running: Steve Sinton , who lost in 2006 has an amazing website. Also, Charles Brewer, who could probably finance his own campaign (he started Mindspring, the ISP).

GA-07 R+18 .59

GA-07 is more or less in the middle of GA

Linder, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he has had any opposition at all

GA-09 R+23 .80

GA-09 is northern GA, bordering TN and NC.

Deal, first elected in 1992, has won easily since the mid-1990s, often with no opposition

Joe Inman is apparently a confirmed challenger, but his website has been hijacked by a furniture store, and a couple others are considering running.

GA-10 R+13 .59

GA-10 is the northeastern corner of GA, bordering NC and SC and including Athens and Augusta

Broun is new, elected in a special election in 2007

One confirmed opponent is Bobby Saxon who has a nice website (YouTube, lots of links) and seems to be raising money ($44,000 in a month).

Another is James Marlow . This is a Republican district, but who knows? There are Republican challengers, and some of them are downright cuckoo (Whitehead, who may run again, said “Iraq is not a big deal” and called for the U. of GA to be bombed).

GA-11 R+17 .63

GA-11 is the northern part of western GA, bordering AL.

Gingrey, first elected in 2002, had a tough battle that year, but not since.

There’s no confirmed opponent, but several Democrats seem to be considering running

VA-01 R+0 .65

VA-01 is the northeast part of VA, bordering the Chesapeake Bay and MD

Wittman is new, he won a special election to replace Jo Ann Davis

No Democratic challenger

VA-02 R+9 .29

VA-02 is in northeast VA, including Virginia Beach and the portion of VA that is on the eastern side of Chesapeake Bay.

Drake, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2004 and a tougher one in 2006, winning by 5,000 votes out of 170,000.

This time her opponent is Glenn Nye, who has filed with the FEC but has no website yet. Drake seems vulnerable, I don’t know anything about Nye.

VA-04 R+5 .44

VA-04 is the southeastern part of VA

Forbes, first elected in 2001, has won easily since then against underfunded opponents. Apparently, it isn’t clear if he is running.

There is no sign of a Democratic challenger

VA-05 R+6 .67

VA-05 runs north-south through the middle of VA, from the NC border to Charlottesville.

Goode, first elected in 1996, is the bozo who objected to Keith Ellison taking his oath of office on the Koran. He has won easily, even against decently funded opponents.

One confirmed challenger is Tom Perriello

VA-06 R+11 .60

VA-06 is the northwestern part of VA, bordering WV and including Roanoke

Goodlatte, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he has had any opponent at all (no Democrat has run against him since 1998)

He does have an opponent this year Sam Rasoul who has a nice website. This is a strongly Republican district, but no one should go unchallenged, certainly not for a decade!

VA-07 R+11 .64

VA-07 includes Richmond and extends northwest, almost to the WV border

Cantor, first elected in 2000, has won easily, raising huge sums.

There is no declared Democratic challenger

VA-10 R+5 .72

VA-10 is the northern part of VA, bordering MD and WV.

Wolf, first elected in 1980, has won reasonably easily despite drawing well-funded opponents. In 2006, he beat Judy Feder 57-41, although each spent about $1.5 million

In 2008, Feder is running again, as is Mike Turner . Wolf also has a primary opponent.

VA-11 R+1 .60

VA-11 is a u-shaped district in northeastern VA, near DC

Davis, first elected in 1994, is apparently going to retire.

One confirmed Democrat is Doug Denneny , there are other Democrats considering it, and a bunch of Republicans as well.

Summary:

GA is one of the few states with vulnerable Democrats. Neither Marshall nor Barrow is exactly a progressive (to put it mildly) but they are better than any Republican that would replace them. Nothing looks good on our side here.

ND depends on who (if anyone) decides to run against Pomeroy

In VA, our best pickup chance seems to be VA-11

Congressional races by state: TN, AL, NJ

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in early April

TN has 9 congressional districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican

AL 7 districts, 5 Republican and 2 Democratic

NJ has 13 districts, 7 Democratic, 6 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating AL-05 R+6 .56 Cramer Yes Safe AL-07 D+17 .11 Davis No Safe NJ-01 D+14 .37 Andrews No Safe for Democrats, Andrews may run for Senate NJ-06 D+12 .31 Pallone No Safe NJ-08 D+12 .34 Pascrell No Safe NJ-09 D+13 .28 Rothman No Safe NJ-10 D+34 .07 Payne No Safe NJ-12 D+8 .56 Holt No Safe NJ-13 D+23 .18 Sires No Safe TN-04 R+3 .79 Davis No Safe TN-05 D+6 .31 Cooper No Safe TN-06 R+4 .74 Gordon No Safe TN-08 D+0 .58 Tanner No Safe TN-09 D+18 .07 Cohen Only primary Safe for Dem

As for those held by Republicans

AL-01 R+12 .40

AL-01 is the southwest corner of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the gulf of Mexico.

Bonner, first elected in 2002, has won easily even against an opponent with reasonable funding (in 2004, when Bonner got about the same as Bush).

His opponent this time is Ben Lodmell (nice looking site… With links to YouTube and lots of documentation on the evils of Bonner), and, if I am reading the FEC report correctly, he already has $50,000 COH.

AL-02 R+13 .48

AL-02 is the southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA.

Everett, first elected in 1992, is retiring

There is no confirmed Democratic challenger, although the mayor of Montgomery, Bobby Bright, is considering it.

AL-03 R+4 .43

AL-03 is eastern AL, bordering GA.

Rogers, first elected in 2002, won a narrow victory in 2002, and got only around 60% in 2004 and 2006, despite (in 2006) having a funding edge of more than 100-1.

The confirmed challengers are Greg Pierce , who lost in 2006, and Joshua Segall . Bobby Bright (see AL-02) is also mentioned, but, since Everitt is retiring, Bright will probably run there.

AL-04 R+16 .82

AL-04 is an east-west strip in northern AL, not quite at the border with TN (TN borders AL-05, another east-west strip), but running from MS to GA.

Aderholt, first elected in 1996, hasn’t had a close race since then, although his opponents have had little money.

The confirmed challenger this time is Greg Warren . Barbara Bobo, the 2006 challenger, might run again, as might Ron Sparks

AL-06 R+25 .74

AL-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state. Why weird? Well, AL-06 is 89% White and R + 25; AL-07 is 62% Black and D+17.

Bachus, first elected in 1992, has won unopposed or with only token opposition since he got in.

There is no confirmed challenger

NJ-02 D+4 .49

NJ-02 is the southernmost part of NJ, bordering DE, Delaware Bay, and the Atlantic and including Atlantic City

LoBiondo, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

There is no confirmed challenger, but assemblyman James Whelan might run.

NJ-03 D+3 .56

NJ-03 is an east-west strip from PA to the Atlantic, including Philadelphia suburbs and a lot of the Jersey shore, and the pine barrens.

Saxton, first elected in 1984, is retiring, and there is no confirmed Republican running (!)

The confirmed candidate on our side is John Adler

NJ-04 R+1 .58

NJ-04 is just north of NJ-03, and includes Trenton, Freehold, and Point Pleasant.

Smith, first elected in 1980, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

There are two confirmed challengers: Amy Vazquez who looks like a true progressive (but whose website needs updating) and Josh Zeitz, who needs a website, but who seems to be raising a fair amount of money.

NJ-05 R+4 .79

NJ-05 is a boomerang shaped district running along the northernmost part of NJ, bordering NY and PA, and including some NYC suburbs.

Garrett, first elected in 2002, has been held to relatively narrow margins (55-45 in 2006) despite out-spending his opponent about 2-1.

There are a lot of potential Democratic candidates, and two confirmed challengers: Dennis Shulman and Camille Abate . From what I can tell quickly, Abate looks more progressive.

NJ-07 R+1 .72

NJ-07 is an S-shaped district (well sort of) across the middle of the state. It is the 5th highest income district in the country.

Ferguson, first elected in 2000, is retiring. He won a very tight race in 2006 against Linda Stender (winning by less than 3,000 votes out of 200,000).

There are several Republicans interested, but the only Democrat is Linda Stender . She almost knocked off an incumbent, so I have to think she has an excellent shot (but her website doesn’t seem to go anywhere, unless it’s me).

NJ-11 R+6 .79

NJ-11 is a sort of blob shaped district in north central NJ, and is the 2nd wealthiest district in the nation.

Freylinghausen, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2006, he beat Tom Wyka 62-37, although he raised 100 times as much (Wyka only raised $12,000).

Wyka is running again.

TN-01 R+14 .68

TN-01 is the eastern part of TN, most of the narrow part of the state, bordering VA and NC.

Davis, first elected in 2006, won the GE easily after a tough primary battle.

There are no confirmed challengers, but several people are considering running.

TN-02 R+11 .58

TN-02 is the southeastern part of TN, including Knoxville

Duncan, first elected in 1988, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2004 he got 30,000 more votes than Bush

There are no confirmed challengers

TN-03 R+8 .58

TN-03 is shaped like a barbell: Two blobs with a stick in between. The southern blob includes Chattanooga and the northern part is mostly rural. It runs north south and borders both VA and KY and GA.

Wamp, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2004, he got about the same number of votes as Bush.

There are no confirmed challengers, and the 2006 challenger, Brent Benedict, has one of the strangest websites I’ve seen for a Democrat.

TN-07 R+12 .74

TN-07 is the southwestern part of TN, bordering MS and AL

Blackburn, first elected in 2002, was unopposed in 2004 and won easily in 2006.

There are no confirmed challengers

Summary: AL and TN look pretty bleak, although we might have a shot in AL-02. At least the Democrats are safe, too.

NJ is a different matter. All the Democrats are safe, but NJ-03 might be a gimmee, NJ-05 is at least possible, NJ-07 is likely. I’d say we pick up two in NJ

Congressional races by state: MT, ID, MO, SD, SC

For previous diaries in this series, see this page

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in late March

ID has 2 congressional districts, both held by Republicans

MO has 9 districts, 5 Republican and 4 Democratic

MT has 1 district, with a Republican

SC has 6 districts, 4 Republican and 2 Democratic

SD has 1 district,, with a Democrat

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating MO-01 D+26 .11 Clay No Safe MO-03 D+8 .47 Carnahan Yes Mostly safe MO-04 R+11 .77 Skelton No Safe MO-05 D+12 .25 Cleaver Yes Safe SC-05 R+6 .52 Spratt No Safe SC-06 D+11 .26 Clyburn No Safe SD-AL ??? .56 Herseth Sandlin No Safe

Seats held by Republicans

MO-02 R+9 .73

MO-02 is an odd shaped district in northeastern MO, bordering IL. It completely surrounds MO-01, which is St. Louis

Akin, first elected in 2000, has won easily, but his opponent the last two times (George Weber) managed to get almost 40% in 2006, with almost no money

Weber is running again.

Also running is Mike Garman , who seems to be a health care specialist.

MO-06 R+5 .69

MO-06 is the northwestern part of MO, bordering NB, KS, and IA.

Graves, first elected in 2000, has won easily. In 2004, he did substantially better than Bush, even though his opponent raised almost $1 million.

This year, his opponent is former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes who has been running since May, 2007, and has the backing of the DCCC. This could be interesting.

MO-07 R+14 .64

MO-07 is the southwest corner of MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR

Blunt, first elected in 1996, has won easily, raising huge amounts of money (over $3 million in 2004 and 2006).

There is no confirmed challenger, although Jack Truman who ran in 2006, appears to be running.

MO-08 R+11 .71

MO-08 is the southeastern quarter of MO, bordering IL, KY, TN, and AR

Emerson, first elected in 1996, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

There is no confirmed challenger

MO-09 R+7 .76

MO-09 is the northeast portion of MO, excluding St. Louis and its suburbs and exurbs.

Hulshof, first elected in 1996, won very narrowly then (getting less than 50%) but much more easily since. In 2006, he beat Duane Burghard 61-36, outraising him by 5-1.

Burghard is running again.

MT-AL R+?? .56

MT has only one CD. Although it went strongly for Bush, it also has 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor

Rehberg, first elected in 2000, may retire to run for Senate against Baucus (he tried in 1996, and lost, 50-45). He has won re-election easily

There is no confirmed challenger (but if Rehberg does go for the Senate run, that should change)

SC-01 R+10 .43

SC-01 is a long thin strip of coastline, that also touches NC

Brown, first elected in 2000, has won easily, sometimes unopposed by a Democrat. He may retire.

Linda Ketner is thinking about running for this seat. Go for it, Linda!

SC-02 R+9 .53

SC-02 is an I shaped district, running south from Columbia to the Atlantic, and bordering GA.

Wilson, first elected in 2001, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2006, Michael Ellison got 37% of the vote with almost no money

There is no confirmed challenger

SC-03 R+14 .61

SC-03 is the northwest portion of SC, mostly bordering GA.

Barrett, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents (when he had one)

There are no confirmed challengers

SC-04 R+15 .47

SC-04 is the central part of northern SC including Spartanburg, and borders NC

Inglis, first elected in 2004 (but also in congress from 1992-1997) has won easily against underfunded opponents

The 2006 challenger William Griffith may run again. Go for it! You gotta love a candidate who has a page on his website called ‘nerds’!

Congressional races by state: AR, OR, IA, ME, UT

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC, NE and CA; today, AR where the deadline is 3/10, OR where it is 3/11, IA where it is 3/14, ME where it is 3/15, and UT

AR has 4 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican

OR has 5 districts, 4 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican

IA has 5 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

ME has 2 districts, both held by Democrats

UT has 3 districts, 1 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating AR-01 D+1 .60 Berry No Safe AR-02 R+0 .50 Snyder No Safe AR-04 D+0 .54 Ross No Safe IA-01 D+5 .66 Braley No Safe IA-02 D+7 .67 Loebsack Yes Vul IA-03 D+1 .64 Boswell No Somewhat vul ME-01 D+6 .80 Allen (retiring for senate) Somewhat vul ME-02 D+4 .82 Michaud No Safe OR-01 D+6 .49 Wu No Safe OR-03 D+18 .31 Blumenauer No Safe OR-04 D+0 .55 DeFazio No Safe OR-05 D+1 .57 Hooley No Slight vul UT-02 R+17 .55 Matheson Probably Safe

As for those held by Republicans:

AR-03 R+11 .64

AR-03 is the NW corner of AR, bordering OK and MO

Boozman, first elected in 2001, has won easily, even against opponents with competitive funding

He’s got a different kind of challenger in 2008, though… David Pritt is on active duty in Iraq.

IA-04 D+0 .77

IA-04 is the central part of IA

Latham, first elected in 1994, has had a couple close wins: in 2002 he got 55%, in 2006 he got 57% against Selden Spencer, spending $1.1 million to $500,000

In 2008, his opponent is William Meyers

IA-05 R+5 .44

IA-05 is the Western part of IA, bordering NE, SD, and MN.

King, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against opponents with modest funding. It’s not clear if he’s running again. He might run for Senate against Harkin.

Rob Hubler is the only announced candidate; he’s also got a blog

OR-02 R+11 .60

OR-02 is the eastern 2/3 of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA.

Walden, first elected in 1998, has not been seriously challenged. There is a rumor he may retire now to run full time for Governor in 2010.

There are no confirmed challengers

UT-01 R+22 .54

UT-01 is the NW part of UT, including the Great Salt Lake

Bishop, first elected in 2002, has won easily without spending much, against underfunded opponents.

There is no confirmed challenger

UT-03 R+26 .53

UT-03 is more or less the middle of the state.

Cannon, first elected in 1996, has won easily

There is no confirmed Democratic challenger

Congressional races by state: CA

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC and NE; today, CA where the deadline is 3/9

NC has 53 congressional districts. 34 held by Democrats and 19 by Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are

Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating CA-01 D+10 .42 Thompson No Safe CA-05 D+14 .06 Matsui Yes Safe CA-06 D+21 .61 Woolsey Yes Safe CA-07 D+19 .14 Miller No Safe CA-08 D+36 .05 Pelosi Yes Safe CA-09 D+38 .06 Lee Yes Safe CA-10 D+9 .45 Tauscher Yes Safe CA-11 R+3 .49 McNerney Yes Somewhat vul CA-12 D+22 .13 Lantos (Retiring)Yes Prob. safe CA-13 D+22 .08 Stark No Safe CA-14 D+18 .49 Eshoo No Safe CA-15 D+14 .16 Honda No Safe CA-16 D+16 .18 Lofgren No Safe CA-17 D+17 .43 Farr Yes Safe CA-18 D+3 .16 Cardoza No Safe CA-20 D+5 .16 Costa No Prob. safe CA-23 D+9 .35 Capps Yes Safe CA-27 D+13 .22 Sherman No Safe CA-28 D+25 .24 Berman Only a Green Safe CA-29 D+12 .05 Schiff Yes Safe CA-30 D+20 .45 Waxman No Safe CA-31 D+30 .07 Becerra No Safe CA-32 D+17 .10 Solis No Safe CA-33 D+36 .04 Watson No Safe CA-34 D+23 .17 Roybal-Allard No Safe CA-35 D+33 .08 Waters No Safe CA-36 D+11 .21 Harman No (primary) Safe CA-37 D+27 .06 Richardson No Safe CA-38 D+20 .19 Napolitano No Safe CA-39 D+13 .22 Sanchez No Safe CA-43 D+13 .21 Baca Yes Safe CA-47 D+5 .15 Sanchez Yes Safe CA-51 D+7 .12 Filner No Safe CA-53 D+12 .16 Davis Yes Safe

Those held by Republicans….

CA-02 R+13 .44

CA-02 is the central part of nothernmost CA, between the 1st (on the coast) and the 4th (interior), from the OR border to the outskirts of Sacramento.

Herger, first elected in 1986, has won every election since 1990 with between 61% and 66%.

No apparent challenger

CA-03 R+7 .45

CA-03 is one of the many many strange shaped districts in CA. It includes some of Sacramento’s suburbs, and then a wedge all the way to the NV border, plus some land west of Sacramento.

Lungren, first elected in 1978, but out of the house for a while and re-elected in 2004, won reasonably easily in 2004 and 2006, against underfunded opponents. He got the same votes as Bush did, in 2004. In 2006, he beat Bill Durston 59-38, outraising him by 2-1.

Durston is running again.

CA-04 R+11 .69

CA-04 is the interior part of northern CA

Doolittle, first elected in 1990, is quitting (will he go to jail?) He won easily until 2006, when Charlie Brown lost by only 49-46. There are several Republicans running.

The Democratic challenger is Charlie Brown . Ordinarily, running in an open seat is easier than against an incumbent, but Doolittle was ethically challenged. Could be interesting

CA-19 R+10 .41

CA-19 is just about in the center of the state, including part of Fresno.

Radaonovich, first elected in 1994, has usually won easily. In 2004, he got about as many votes as Bush. In 2006, his challenger was TJ Cox, who was well-funded, but lost 61-39.

There is no confirmed challenger.

CA-21 R+13 .36

CA-21 is CA’s central valley

Nunes, first elected in 2002, has won easily. In 2004, he got 8,000 more votes than Bush

Stephen Haze ran against Nunes in 2006, and lost 67-30. But he’s running again. (Nice to have a bilingual web site!)

CA-22 R+16 .44

CA-22 is an east-west strip of central CA, from the Pacific to Bakersfield and Ridgecrest

McCarthy, first elected in 2006, is the successor to long-time congressman Bill Thomas. He won without serious opposition in the primary or general

There is no confirmed challenger.

CA-24 R+5 .61

CA-24 is just off the coast (separated from the coast by the incredibly narrow CA-23)in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties

Gallegly, first elected in 1986, has won easily, even when his opponents had reasonable money. In 2006, he beat Jill Martinez 62-38, although he outspent her by 6-1.

Martinez is running again, as is Chip Frasier (oy, does that web site need help! There are typos!) and Elliot Maggin

CA-25 R+7 .43

CA-25 is the eastern part of CA, where it angles against NV, most of it is almost uninhabited (the Mojave and Death Valley). It moves inland to include Barstow and Santa Clarita, nearly on the Pacific.

McKeon, first elected in 1992, has won without difficulty.

There are no confirmed challengers

CA-26 R+4 .26

CA-26 is a sort of blobby shaped district mostly San Bernadino county

Dreier, first elected in 1980, has occasionally gotten under 55%, even against poorly financed opponents. In 2006, he got 57% against Cynthia Matthews, despite outspending her by more than 100-1 (Matthews spent only $17,000). This could get interesting

This year, Russ Warner is running; his ActBlue page has already raised almost $200,000. Also running is Hoyt Hilsman (nice website, with video and stuff).

CA-26 R+8 .22

CA-40 is a sort of upside down U-shaped district in Southern CA, including Fullerton and Orange.

Royce, first elected in 1992, has gotten roughly 2/3 of the vote in every election since 1994. In 2004, he did considerably better than Bush

There are two declared challengers: Florice Hoffman (who lost in 2006 and who may not be running….) and Christina Avalos who seems like a real progressive (if someone knows her, tell her to add a donation link on her website….)

CA-41 R+9 .33

CA-41 is a wedge shaped district, mostly San Bernadino county. Although it extends to the NV and AZ border, most of the people are in the SW corner, in towns like Redlands, Highland, and Apple Valley.

Lewis, first elected in 1978, is retiring in a cloud of ethics. There are at least 3 Democrats running:

Rita Ramirez Dean

Tim Prince

Pat Morris

CA-42 R+10 .39

CA-42 is shaped roughly like a fat T, with the NE at Chino, the NW at La Habla, and the S at Mission Viejo

Miller, first elected in 1998, has won easily the last few times, in 2006 he was unopposed, in 2004 he did considerably better than Bush.

But, now, he’s under investigation by the FBI .. uh oh.

And he has two challengers:

Kossack CanYouBeAngryandStillDream , whose real name is Ron Shepston and Ed Chau

CA-44 R+6 .39

CA-44 runs north from San Clemente to Riverside.

Calvert, first elected in 1992, has won fairly easily, the last three times against Louis Vandenberg, who had almost no money.

Vandenberg is running again, as is Bill Hedrick . It’s becoming evident that Calvert is a crook, so maybe we have a better chance; not only was he involved in shady land deals, but he was arrested in a car with a mostly unclad female who had her head in his lap (see his arrest record ). He said they were ‘just talking’.

CA-45 R+3 .37

CA-45 is an east-west strip near the southern border of CA, running from AZ almost to the Pacific

Bono, first elected in 1998, has won easily, even when, as in 2006, her opponent raises considerable funds.

At least two Democrats are running: Paul Clay and David Hunsicker.

CA-46 R+6 .30

CA-46 is coastal CA, near the town of Long Beach, it consists of two main parts connected by a tiny strip of land (which is in CA-36 and 37), and also of two islands.

Rohrabacher, first elected in 1988, has won fairly easily since.

His opponent in 2008 is Steve Blount

CA-48 R+8 .46

CA-48 is more or less centerd on Irvine, and includes Newport Beach and Laguna Niguel

Campbell, first elected in 2005, won easily in 2006, beating Steve Young 60-37. Campbell raised $2 million to Young’s $400,000.

Young is running again. Steve has written a bunch of diaries on dailyKos

CA-49 R+10 .41

CA-49 is northern San Diego and southern Riverside counties.

Issa, first elected in 2000, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

His opponent in 2008 is Robert Hamilton

CA-50 R+5 .41

CA-50 is a triangle in the SW corner of CA, entirely surrounding CA-53, which is the center of San Diego

Bilbray, was congressman from 1995-2001, then a lobbyist, now a congressman again, after Duke Cunningham left in ignominy. In 2006, he beat Florence Busby twice; in the second, regular election, he won 53-43, despite Busby spending even more money than he did ($3.5 million to $2.6 million).

His opponent in 2008 is Nick Leibham .

CA-52 R+9 .44

CA-52 includes suburbs of San Diego and the mountains and dessert interior.

Hunter, first elected in 1980, is retiring. He won easily.

There are a whole bunch of people running. Democrats include:

Mike Lumpkin

Jim Hester

Vickie Butcher

Summary:

Only one Democratic seat is in any real danger.

Several Republican seats are: CA-04, CA-24, CA-46, and maybe CA-50 and CA-52