Author: plf515

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM and IN; today, NC where the deadline is 2/29 and NE, where it is 3/3

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NC has 13 congressional districts, 6 are held by Republicans, 7 by Democrats

NE has 3 districts, all Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

NC-01    D+9     .28       Butterfield        No

NC-02    R+3     .50       Etheridge          No

NC-04    D+6     .44       Price              No

NC-07    R+3     .40       McIntyre           Yes          Safe

NC-11    R+7     .73       Shuler             Yes          Vul (?)

NC-12    D+11    .15       Watt               No

NC-13    D+2     .39       Miller             No

basically, all these seats are pretty safe except maybe Shuler’s.

As for the Republicans

NC-03 R+15 .61

NC-03 is a bizarrely shaped district on the eastern part of NC, bordering on the Atlantic. It’s gerrymandered with NC-01. NC-01 is 50% Black and has median income of $28,410 (one of the lowest in the USA).  NC-03 is 17% Black and has a median income of $37,510; OK, only some of that is land that could be either CD…but….

Jones, first elected in 1994, has not been seriously challenged since, although his opponents recently have had no money.  He has recently become much less conservative, having a full about-face on the war. That accounts for a primary challenger.

His Democratic challenger is Marshall Adame , a kossack

NC-05 R+15  .79

NC-05 is the northern central part of NC, along the VA border.  

Foxx, first elected in 2004, was the survivor of a nasty Republican primary that year.  She won her general election relatively easily, though still getting 30,000 votes fewer than Bush did.

This year, one Democrat has announced Roy Carter , and several others might run: You can read about a debate they had in this live blog diary .

NC-06 R+17  .76

NC-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state. One reason it’s so odd is to let NC-12 run along and through it, stopping at every Black community; another is so that NC-02 can carve the Black areas out of the eastern part of NC-06.  So, NC-02 is 30% Black, NC-12 is 45% Black, NC-06 is 9% Black.

Coble, first elected in 1984, has not been seriously challenged in decades.  But he’s getting old, and doesn’t appear to have filed.  The latest news on his campaign website is from 2004.

The only announced challenger is Johnny Carter.  

If Coble runs, he will be tough to beat.  If he retires…well,it’s still a Republican district, but things could get interesting.

NC-08 R+3 .37

NC-08 is the southwestern part of NC, along the SC border.

Hayes, first elected in 1998, has faced tough fights, never getting 60% and only once getting 55%.  In 2006, he beat Larry Kissel by 329 votes out of 121,000, in one of the closest races in the country.

Kissell is running again, and several others may run.  Kissell announced his run right after the last election.  This time the DCCC is fully behind Kissell. And Larry is a frequent poster on daily Kos

NC-09 R+12 .64

NC-09 is another odd shaped district, this one in the southern central part of NC, bordering SC. Again, this one is weird because of NC-12.  

Myrick, first elected in 1994, has won easily since, against underfinanced opponents.  In 2004, she got 17,000 more votes than Bush.

There are two formally announced challengers:

Ross Overby .  Ross seems like a moderate.  One nice feature on his website, though, is a button “if you usually vote Republican, click here”.  In a district like NC-09, a winning Democrat has to appeal to Republicans

and

Harry Taylor who seems more progressive.

and one who seems to be running: Bill Glass, who ran in 2006.

NC-10 R+15 .70

NC-10 is a north-south strip, separating the western tip of the state from the rest.

McHenry, first elected in 2004, won fairly easily against under-funded opponents.  He got about the same number of votes as Bush in 2004

His Democratic opponent this time is Steve Ivester

NE-01 R+12 .66

NE-01 is the eastern third of NE, excluding Omaha

Fortenberry, first elected in 2004, has had surprisingly tough races.  In 2004, he won 54-43, and in 2006, he won 58-42, both times against well-funded opponents, in races that cost roughly $2 million each, about evenly split between  incumbent and challenger.  In 2004, he got 26,000 votes less than Bush.

There are no confirmed challengers.  Maxine Moul, the 2006 challenger, may run again.

NE-02 R+9 .41

NE-02 is Omaha and suburbs

Terry, first elected in 1998, had his toughest race in 2006, when he won 55-45, despite outspending Jim Esch by about 2-1.

There is no confirmed challenger. State Sen Tom White may run

NE-03  R+24 .76

NE-03 is the vast, western 2/3 of NE; more rural than 92% of all districts.

Smith, first elected in 2006, had a tough race against Scott Kleeb, winning 55-45 (Bush, by contrast, got 75% in 2004)

Kleeb may run again

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, and PA; today, NM, where the filing  is 2/12, and IN, where it is 2/22.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NM has 3 congressional districts, 2 are held by Republicans, 1 by a Democrat

IN has 9 districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

IN-01     D+8      .45      Visclosky       Yes            Safe (rematch)

IN-02     R+4      .59      Donnelly        Yes            Somewhat vul

IN-07     D+9      .20      none (Carson)   Yes            Prob. safe

IN-08     R+9      .70      Ellsworth       Yes            Unclear

IN-09     R+7      .75      Hill            Yes            Vulnerable            

NM-03     D+6      .34      Udall           No             Udall retiring

Indiana has several vulnerable representatives.

NM-03 is probably safely Democratic….NM will be one wild place, with all the house seats open, and one senate seat, and Richardson running for President (not any more).

Now, for the seats held by Republicans:

IN-03 R+16  .70

IN-03 is the NE corner of IN, bordering MI and OH

Souder, first elected in 1994, has had a couple of fairly close races.  In 2006, he won 54-46 against Thomas Hayhurst, in a relatively low cost race (each spent around $700,000)

Hayhurst may run again, and Mike Montagano is definitely running.  In October, he had more cash on hand than Souder did, and has several endorsements.  Could be interesting

IN-04 R+17 .73

IN-04 is a long, narrow district, in western central IN, including western exurbs of Indianapolis

Buyer, first elected in 1992, has won easily without spending huge amounts, the last two times against David Sanders

Sanders might run again, and Nels Ackerson is running. His website makes him sound distinctly moderate, and this looks like a longshot

IN-05 R+20 .75

IN-05 is also long and narrow, but it’s eastern central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianopolis.

Burton, first elected in 1982, has won easily, although his closest race ever was in 2006, when Katherine Carr managed to get 31% with almost no money.

She might run again, but there is no confirmed challenger.

IN-06 R+11 .72

IN-06 is yet another long, narrow district, this one on the eastern edge of IN, bordering OH, and home of the famously typical Muncie

Pence, first elected in 2000, has not had well-funded opponents.  In 2006, Barry Welsh got 40% with only $45,000 (to Pence’s $1.3 million).

Welsh is running again; he’s also written about his race on daily Kos .

NM-01 D+2 .34

NM-01 is the center of NM, including Albuquerque

Wilson, first elected in 1998, won one of the closest (maybe the closest) races in the country in 2006, winning by 861 votes out of 210,000, in a race where she spent almost $5 million and her opponent, Patricia Madrid, spent over $3 million.  Now, Wilson is likely to retire to run for Senate.

There are two confirmed Democrats: Martin Heinrich ; Jon Adams ; and (Jason Call has withdrawn, unfortunately), and several others (including Madrid) might run.  No confirmed Republicans yet.  Gonna be interesting!

NM-02 R+6  .37

NM-02 is the southern half of NM.

Pearce, first elected in 2002, and re-elected pretty easily even against well-funded opponents (he won 60-40 in 2004 against Gary King, who spent over $1 million), is probably retiring to run for Senate.

There are 4 confirmed Democrats: Bill McCamley ; Al Kissling ; Harry Teague and Joe Cervantes. McCamley wrote about his candidacy here .

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, which having filing deadlines coming up, and IL, where filing is already closed.  Today I look at Maryland, where the filing date is also past

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Maryland has 8 congressional districts

6 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans.

The 6 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?          rating

2         D+8    .26       Ruppersbergre    Yes                Fairly safe

3         D+7    .42       Sarbanes         Yes (a bunch)       Slight vul

4         D+30   .14       Wynn             Yes (and primary!)  Safe

5         D+9    .56       Hoyer            Yes (and primary!)  Safe

7         D+25   .08       Cummings         Yes (and primary!)  Safe

8         D+20   .38       van Hollen       Yes (and primary!)  Safe

Some of the primaries might get interesting, but I think we are pretty safe with these 6

Only 2 Republican seats: The first and the sixth.

MD-01 R +10 .74 The 1st is the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and some Republican areas between Annapolis and Baltimore.

Gilchrest, first elected in 1990, is a very moderate Republican, with a 60 rating from the ACLU and 67 from League of Conservation Voters and a 0 from the Christian Coalition.

He’s facing both primary and GE challenges.  I think if he survives the primary, he will probably win the general.  He has won easily in the past, without having to raise much money.  Still, there are Democrats running: Frank Kravotil (cute pic on the web page; 4 boys) and Christopher Robinson and Steve Harper and Joseph Werner.  Back in October, Steve Singiser reported FEC filings :

Rep. Wayne Gilchrest–GOP (91K/414K)

Andy Harris–GOP (352K/402K)

Frank Kratovil–DEM (83K/111K)

(the numbers are amount raised in 3rd quarter, and cash on hand.

MD-06 R +13 .80

The 6th is mostly western MD.

Bartlett, first elected in 1992, got challenged by Andrew Duck in 2006; in one of the cheaper contested races (total spending for both was about $630,000), Bartlett won 59-38.

This year, he faces a primary challenge, and then Duck is running again, as are Robin Deibert and Jennifer Dougherty and Rick Lank

Summary:

I think all 8 seats look pretty safe, unless one of the Republicans loses a primary battle to a right wing loon.

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX and OH, which having filing deadlines coming up.  Today, Illinois, where filing is already closed.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Illinois has 19 congressional districts

10 are held by Democrats, 9 by Republicans (sort of odd in a state that has, arguably, the most liberal senate delegation).

The 10 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?       rating

1        D+35    .07         Rush            Yes                Safe

2        D+35    .10         Jackson         No

3        D+10    .43         Lipinski        Yes (and primary!) Fairly              

                                                               safe

4        D+31    .29         Gutierrez       No

5        D+18    .37         Emmanuel        No

7        D+35    .07         Davis           No (primary)        Safe

8        R+5     .61         Bean            Yes (and primary)   Vul.

9        D+20    .18         Schakowsky      Yes                 Safe

12       D+5     .44         Costello        Yes                 moderate

17       D+5     .56         Hare            No

notes: Lipinski deserves to be primaried

The only race that is at all likely to go Repub is Bean, in IL08.

The 17th might have changed, but there’s no challenger.

All nine Republican seats are being contested (woot! woot!) some details

IL-06 R+2.9 .53

The 6th is the western suburbs of Chicago

Roskam was first elected in 2006, replacing the odious Henry Hyde.  He won a close (5,000 votes) and very expensive (combined spending $8 million) race against Tammy Duckworth.

There are two challengers: Jill Morgenthaler and Stan Jagla

IL-10 D+4 .67

The 10th is the north shore suburbs of Chicago, a very high income area (median income = $71,663).

Kirk, first elected in 2000, is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. In 2006 he beat Dan Seals 53%-47%, outspending Seals 2-1.

Seals is running again, as is Jay Footlik , although Seals looks like the favorite.  Seals is also raking in the money, raising $300K in the third quarter.

IL-11 R+1.1 .65

The 11th is shaped like a T, with its base in Bloomington and Normal, and its upper right bar ending in Joliet and Kankakee.

Weller, first elected in 1994, is retiring.  In 2006, he won 55-45 against John Pavich, whom he outspent more than 3-1.  

The Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorsen , and there are three Republicans in a primary; Halvorsen is the majority leader of the state senate.  This is winnable! Bush actually got less than 50% in 2000 (adding Gore and Nader); Weller did much better, but he was an incumbent with a big war-chest.  And his margins keep getting smaller: 2002 – 64%, 2004 – 59%, 2006 – 55%.

IL-13 R+5 .67

The 13th is the western suburbs of Chicago.

Biggert, first elected in 1998, looks increasingly vulnerable. In 2002 she got 70%, 2004 – 65%, and 2006 – 58%.  In 2006, she outspent challenger Joseph Shannon by more than 4-1. This year she faces a primary and then

Scott Halper .

IL-14 R+5 .68

The 14th runs almost the entire width of IL, from the far western suburbs of Chicago almost to the IA border.

Hastert, the former speaker, has resigned! Bye Dennis! We won’t miss you! Say hi to the family!

There are primaries in both parties, but the Democratic favorite has to be John Laesch , who got 40% against Hastert in 2006, even though Hastert raised $5 million to Laesch’s $300,000.  The primary is Feb 5th, and then a special election March 8. Laesch is also a kossack

IL-15 R+6 .62

The 15th is the eastern middle of IL, centering on Champaign and Urbana.

Johnson, first elected in 2000, has managed to win relatively easily without massive spending, twice beating David Gill.

This year, the challenger is Steve Cox.

IL-16 R+4 .67

The 16th is the northern edge of IL, all along the border with WI and IA.

Manzullo, first elected in 1992, has not been seriously challenged.

The challenger is Robert Aboud , a nuclear engineer and businessman.

IL-18 R+5.5 .66

The 18th is more or less in the middle of the state, including Springfield and Jacksonville.

LaHood, first elected in 1994, is retiring.

It’s not clear who, if anyone, is challenging from the Democratic side…local help, please?

IL-19 R+8 .76

The 19th is most of the southern end of IL, including Centralia

Shimkus, first elected in 1996, has not been seriously challenged since, winning easily without raising huge amounts, although in 2006, Danny Stover got 39% with only $166,000.

There are several Democratic challengers (see the link).

Summary

Only one Democratic seat looks in danger.

Six Republican seats do.

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).

crossposted to dailyKos

The next two states to have filing deadlines are OH and TX. Today, I am doing TX.  I did OH on Dec 30, more to follow (and I will go back and do the states that already passed their filing deadlines).

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics

One note TX has been redrawn again, and my model numbers are for the old districts.  No way to fix this that I know of.

Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats of which 11 have officially filed as follows:



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?    rating

TX-09    D+21     3        Green              Yes         safe Dem.

TX-15    D+ 3    37        Hinojosa            No  

TX-16    D+9     29        Reyes               No  

TX-17    R+18    55        Edwards             No

TX-22    R+15    43        Lampson            Yes       fairly safe, rerun

TX-23    R+4     47        Rodriguez          unclear

TX-25    D+1     49        Doggett             No

TX-27    R+1     35        Ortiz               No

TX-28    R+1     42        Cuellar             No

TX-29    D+8     24        Green              Yes        safe, rerun

TX-30   D+26     12        Johnson             No



The following 2 Democratic incumbents haven’t filed yet but are expected to do so.



TX-18   D+23      8        Lee                No  

TX-20   D+8      25        Gonzalez           No

So, there are confirmed challengers in only 3 Democratic districts, all of which look pretty safe, and two of which are re-runs of 2006.

I give more details on the following, 19 Republican held seats; first the 10 of these have filed candidates:

TX03 R+17  .42.  

This district is northern Dallas, and also Plano and Garland.

Sam Johnson was first elected in 1991.  He has had no close races since his first one.  Ron Minkow and Thomas Daley are running against him, and a couple other people might, but this has to be called a longshot.

TX-06  R+15, .47

This district spreads southeastward from the western part of Ft Worth, running about 150 miles through Corsicanna and Waxahachie

Joe Barton, first elected in 1984, may be slightly mroe vulnerable than his relatively easy wins show.  In 2006, David Harris got 37% of the vote with only $27,000 (he was out-funded almost 100-1!)

Steve Bush is running as a Democrat, hey, his name is Bush! That’s probably going to convince a couple Republicans….. well… maybe.

TX-07  R+16  .45

The 7th runs roughly northwestward from the western suburbs of Houston, but it’s shaped sort of like a Z, so it’s hard to describe.

John Culbertson was first elected in 2000.  In 2004, he got just about as many votes as Bush, despite out-raising his opponent 30-1.  In 2006, Jim Henley raised about $122,000 and got 38%.  

James Henley is running again, as is Michael Skelly.  

TX-10  R+13, .57

The 10th runs from eastern Austin to western Houston.  

Michael McCool was first elected in 2004.  In 2006, Ted Ankrum got 40% of the vote with only $55,000 in funding.  

In 2008, there are at least two challenger: Larry Joe Doherty and Dan Grant, and each seems to have already raised more than that.

TX-12  R+14 .49

The 12th is a large district to the west and northwest of Ft. Worth

Granger was first elected in 1996.  None of her races have been close, and Granger did better than Bush in 2004.

Tracey Smith is running in 2008.

TX-13 R+18 .52

The 13th is 40,000 sq miles mostly along the borders with OK and NM, including Amarillo.

Thornberry was first elected in 1994, and has not been seriously challenged. In 2006, Roger Waun got 23% of the vote, with only $27,000.  

Waun is running again

TX-19 R+25, .48

The 19th is shaped sort of like a W, or maybe a U with a hook.  It runs from the NM border to the middle of TX, including Lubbock and Abilene.

Neugebauer was first elected in 2003.  In 2004 he beat Stenholm 58-40, in a fairly equally funded race.

Dwight Fullingim is running in 2008, and a couple others might run, as well.

TX-26  R+12 .45

The 26th is a narrow strip running north from the Dallas-FtWorth suburbs to the OK border, widening around the town of Denton.

Burgess was elected in 2002.  His majorities have been decreasing:

2002 – 75%, 2004 – 66%, 2006 – 60%, all against opponents with almost no funds (in 2006, his opponent (Barnwell) got 37% with only $16,000).  

Ken Leach is running against Burgess in 2008.  

TX-31 R+15 0.49

The 31st runs northwest from the northern suburbs of Austin.

Carter, first elected in 2002, was in a relatively close race in 2006; he won 58-39 against Mary Beth Harrell, who was outspent more than 4-1.

In 2008, the challenger is Brian Ruiz.

TX-32 R+11 .34

The 32nd is a ridiculously shaped district that includes the area between Ft. Worth and Dallas, and also North Dallas and University Park, and extends out to Ricardson.

Sessions, first elected in 1996, was in one of the most expensive races in 2004 (each candidate spent around $4.5 million) – he won, 54-44, doing considerably worse than Bush. In 2006, Will Pryor did almost as well, getting 41% while raising only half a million.

In 2008 Steve Love is running, as is Eric Roberson.

4 further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:

TX-04  R+17  .70

The 4th is the northeast corner of TX, mostly bordering OK and AR. (It’s one of the few districts in TX that is pretty much a rectangle!)

Hall was first elected in 1980, and he’s getting old (he will turn 85 in May).  He’s won easily against underfunded opponents, but in 2006, Glenn Melancon got 33% of the vote with only 64,000.  

Melancon is running again, but first Hall has to survive a primary.

TX-08 R+20 .74

The 8th is on the eastern part of TX, right around where TX is widest. It borders LA.

Brady was first elected in 1996.  He has won easily, the last two times against Jim Wright (Wright got 30% in 2004 and 33% in 2006, both times with very little money).

Wright is running again.

TX-11 R+25 .54

The 11th runs from the eastern suburbs of Austin to the NM border, including Odessa, Midland, and San Angelo.

Conaway was first elected in 2004, and was unopposed in 2006.

Floyd Crider is running in 2008.

TX-24 R+15 .43

The 24th is a bizarrely shaped district, mostly in between Dallas and Ft. Worth.

Marchant, first elected in 2004, has won easily against Gary Page (twice), although Page got very little money.

This year, Tom Love is running

And two further districts have unconfirmed candidates:

TX-05 R+16 .57

The fifth is another bizarre district….it sort of looks like California, with Nevada on the side.  It includes both Palestine and Athens….and stretches southeast from Dallas

Hensarling was first elected in 2002 and has won easily against almost unfunded opposition; in 2006, Thompson got 36% with only $20,000

TX-21 R+13 .58

The 21st is yet another oddly shaped district, mostly to the north and west of San Antonio.

Smith was first elected in 1986.  He has won easily.  This district was redrawn for 2006.

That leaves 3 districts with no candidate!

And here they are:

TX-01 R+17 .59

The first is along the eastern edge of TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AK.

Gohmert was first elected in 2004. He has won easily, but no more easily than a lot of other TX Repubs.  I can’t say it’s likely we would win, but I can’t see why we aren’t challenging.

TX-02 R+12 .47

The 2nd is another bizarrely shaped district; most of the people live in or near Beaumont.

Poe was first elected in 2004.  In the nebulous world of TX redistricting, his opponent in 2004 was Nick Lampson, who is now the rep. from the 22nd, which doesn’t even border the current 2nd.

Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.

TX-14 R+14 .56

The 14th may be the most bizarre of all the bizarrely shaped districts.  It runs along the gulf of Mexico, mostly south of Galveston, but it’s sort of interrupted by a bunch of other districts.

This bizarrely shaped district has a bizarre rep, even for Texas: Ron Paul.

We had a candidate then he switched parties!

summary

Well….



Currently       Total      Confirmed challenger     %

Democratic        13               3               24

Republican        19              14               74

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).

crossposted to dailyKos

The next two states to have filing deadlines are OH and TX. Today, I am doing OH.  I will do TX soon, more to follow (and I will go back and do the states that already passed their filing deadlines).

Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 held by Democrats:

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican



OH-06 - D+0,  .72.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-09 - D+9,  .44.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-10 - D+6,  .42.  Confirmed challenger (and primary opponents to

    Kucinich)

OH-11 - D+33, .07.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-13 - D+6,  .45.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-17 - D+14, .44.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-18 - R+6,  .77.  Confirmed challenger.

so, there are only 2 races where there is a Republican challenger; they have a good chance in one of them (OH-18).

and there are 11 seats held by Republicans

There are confirmed challengers in 8 of those 11 districts:

OH-01 – R+1,   .25. Chabot was first elected in 1994.  in 2006, he won 52-48, outspending Cranley ($3 million to $2 million).  This time, Dreihaus is running.  He’s now in the state house, and got 67% in his last election.  

OH-02 – R+13,  .69. If the incumbent here was not Jean Schmidt, then this probably wouldn’t be close.  But it is.  In 2006, she beat Wulsin by 2,500 votes out of 238,000 cast.  Wulsin is running again.  In 2005, Schmidt beat Paul Hackett 52-48, while a year earlier, Bush beat Kerry by 64-36.

OH-03 – R+3,   .45.  Turner, first elected in 2002, has not been in a close contest.  He’s outspent his opponents, but they’ve been serious opponents.  In 2006, Crema raised $400,000 but lost, 59-41.  In 2004, Mitakides raised $565,000 and lost 62-38 (Turner got 67,000 more votes than Bush did).  

– R+6,   .63.  Hobson, who has held this seat since 1990, is retiring. There are a number of Democratic and Republican candidates.  Anyone with local info., please chime in.

OH-12 – R+0.7, .40. Tiberi, first elected in 2002, has won easily, even, as in 2006, when his opponent was fairly well funded.

OH-14 – R+2,   .74.  LaTourette, first elected in 1994, has won easily, whether or not his opponent was funded.  In 2004, for instance, LaTourrette got nearly 2/3 of the vote against Cafaro, even though Cafaro spent almost $2 million.  LaTourrette, one of the most moderate Republicans, got 60,000 votes more than Bush. This dailyKos comment indicates that the current candidate (O’Neill) may do better.

OH-15 – R+1,   .44.  The rep here (Pryce) is retiring.  In 2006, this was a very close race (Pryce beat Kilroy by 1,100 votes out of 220,000) and hugely expensive (Pryce spent nearly $5 million, Kilroy nearly $3 million).  Now, Kilroy is running again, this time, without the handicap of being against an incumbent.  

OH-16 – R+4,   .64.  Regula, first elected in 1972, is retiring.  He won easily, but now, it’s a new ballgame; in 2004, Regula got 60,000 votes more than Bush.

And an unconfirmed challenger in 1 district:

OH-16 – R+10,  .81.  This seat was left vacant by the death of Gillmor.  It was filled by Latta, who beat Weirauch 57-43 in a special election.   Weirauch might run again see this comment .  

That leaves two districts with no confirmed or unconfirmed candidate

And here they are:

OH-04 – R+14, .72.  This is a solidly Republican seat, but Jordan is a freshman.  In 2006, he won 60-40 over Siferd, but outspent Siferd by over a million.  A candidate here might make the Republicans waste money.

OH-08 – R+12, .63.  Boehner, who has been the rep. here since 1990, has won easily against little opposition.  But see this comment

Summary

Current: 7 D, 11 R

Outlook: 6 of 7 D are safe. 5 of 11 R look safe.

Best guess: We pick up 3 seats.

Who’s Sam Bennett?

Where’s PA-15?  

Why am I supporting her?

Why should you?

all this and more, below the fold

(cross posted to docudharma and dailyKos)

PA-15 is the southeastern corner of PA.  The most famous town in the district is Allentown; there’s also Bethlehem.  This is former steel producing country,   a bit off the main tracks of America.  Nowadays, it’s got a lot of small shops and businesses.  It’s not poverty stricken (median income is $45,330, and about 8.2% below poverty level), it’s got a small but not absurdly small Black population (2.8%) and a reasonable Hispanic population (7.9%).

It’s a swing district:  Kerry got 700 votes more than Bush; Gore got about 2,500 more than Bush.  Its current representative is Charlie Dent, first elected in 2004.  As Republicans go, he’s not the worst.  But that’s sort of like being a tall midget.  In 2006, Dent won 54% to 46%, despite the fact that Dent raised $1.2 million and his opponent (Charles Dertinger) raised $88 thousand (yeah, a ratio of over 14-1).  Dent replaced that rarest of breeds – a Republican who kept a term-limit promise.

Who’s Sam Bennett.  Well, Sam is for Siobhan.  Her

website is here .  I like it.  I especially like:

The Bush Administration seems to have things exactly backwards. Where government should be robust – protecting and caring for its citizens – they have made it weak. Where government should tread lightly, they have made it overbearing.

and

I want to bring our troops home, to the hero’s welcome and lifelong support they have earned.

and

“Supporting our troops” is not leaving them in Iraq to referee a religious civil war, with no plan, no mission and no end in sight. People here and across America support our troops with all our hearts, and we want them home.

and

Our dependence on foreign oil is a serious national security issue, a serious economic issue, and a serious environmental issue. It is also an enormous opportunity to fundamentally change and grow our economy.

Want more? She wrote a diary and she stuck around a while too.

aren’t those the things we’ve been saying? Doesn’t a candidate who says them deserve our support?

I’m not the only one who likes her.  She’s gotten donations from a lot of unions and 77  individuals and a lot of people on her Act Blue page

She sounds good, and this is a race we can win.  Give her some money.

And!!!!

Today is her 50th birthday!