Author: plf515

Nebraska has 3 representatives: All Republican

Filing deadline was March 3, primary is May 13

Nevada has 3 representatives: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat

Filing deadline is May 16, primary is Aug 12

New Hampshire has 2 representatives: Both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 13, primary is Sept 9

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Fortenberry beat Matt Connealy, while raising $1.2 million to Connealy’s $1 million.  In 2006, Maxine Moul and Fortenberry each raised about $1 million

Current opponents Max Yashirin (site in development)

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location Omaha and suburbs

Representative  Lee Terry (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Nancy Thompson raised $900K to Terry’s $1.4 million.  In 2006, Jim Esch raised $400K to Terry’s $1 million

Current opponents Jim Esch ,

Richard Carter (who blogs at Daily Kos: list of Richard Carter diaries

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment One can’t say we’re the favorites, here, but I think we have some chance

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Notes on opponents In 2006, Scott Kleeb made this a close race, raising $1 million to Smith’s $1.2 million

Current opponents Jay Stoddard and Paul Spatz

Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 6th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.  Kleeb is running for Senate, which is probably an easier race to win

District: NV-01

Location Las Vegas

Representative Shelley Berkley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ

Representative Dean Heller (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat. Heller and his opponent, Jill Derby, each raised about $1.6 million

Current opponents Jill Derby is running again

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this the 38th most vulnerable Republican seat.  This may depend on how fed up the military gets with the Republicans and Iraq

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs

Representative Jon Porter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 48-47

2004 margin 54-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tessa Hafen raised $1.5 million to Porter’s $3 million.  In 2004, Tom Gallagher and Porter each raised around $2.5 million

Current opponents Andrew Martin and Barry Michaels and Robert Daskas

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  superrribie (link above) ranks this the 21st most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shea-Porter did something very unusual: She ousted an incumbent while spending much less than the incumbent ($300K to $1 million).  A people-powered progressive, she has turned down opportunities from the DCCC.

Current opponents Jeb Bradley wants a rematch. John Stephen doesn’t want him to have one.

Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment  Although superribbie ranks this the 10th most vulnerable Democratic seat, I think this is one where models fail.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA

Representative Paul Hodes(D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hodes ousted Charles Bass, raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2 million.

Current opponents Jim Steiner.

Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment  Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this the 24th most vulnerable Democratic seat

Continuing through the alphabet….

Mississippi has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

The filing deadline was Jan 11, and the primary was on March 11

Missouri has 9 representatives: 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats

Filing deadline is March 25, primary is Aug 5

Montana has one representative, a Republican

Filing deadline is March 20, primary is June 3

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo

Representative None (Wicker became Senator), election on April 22

First elected  

2006 margin

2004 margin

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Democrats: Travis Childers

Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment Long shot

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yvonne Brown raised $100K to Thompson’s $1.4 million; in 2004, Clinton LeSeuer raised $300K to Thompson’s $700K

Current opponents Richard Cook (Thompson is also being primaried)

Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2$, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, ot Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL

Representative Chip Pickering (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 78% against minor parties

2004 margin 80% against minor parties

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Randy Eads

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%), 51st most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, Michael Lott raised $90K to Taylor’s $400K

Current opponents John McCay

Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K), 34th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe.  OK, Taylor is a very conservative Democrat.  But he wins easily in a district that Bush took by more than 30 points in 04 and 08

District: MO-01

Location St. Louis

Representative William Lacy Clay (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 31st most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MO-02

Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city

Representative Todd Akin (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Mike Garman

Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MO-03

Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs

Representative Russ Carnahan (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents  In 2004, this was an open seat (formerly occupied by Gephardt), and Carnahan beat Bill Federer with each spending about $1.3 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents David Bertelson, Chris Sander

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City

Representative Ike Skelton

First elected   1976

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 66-32

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 87th most Republican

Assessment safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative  Emanuel Cleaver (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 55-42

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Cleaver was out-spent $3.2 million to $1.5 million by Joanne Patterson.  In 2006, his opponent raised little money

Current opponents Jacob Turk

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MO-06

Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS

Representative Sam Graves (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Broomfield spent $900K to Graves’ $1.7 million.  In 2006, Sara Jo Shettles spent $130K to Graves’ $1.2 million

Current opponents Kay Barnes

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable.  Barnes is Mayor of Kansas City, and has raised $656K already.   superribbie ranks this the 42nd most vul. Republican seat

District: MO-07

Location Southwestern MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR, including Joplin

Representative Roy Blunt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Newberry raised $200K to Blount’s $3.5 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)

Assessment long shot

District: MO-08

Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.

Representative Jo Ann Emerson (R)

First elected 1996

2006 margin 72-26

2004 margin 72-27

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Joe Allen (no apparent site)

Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 87th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City

Representative Kenny Hulshof (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-36

2004 margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Duane Burghard raised $250K to Hulshof’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Linda Jacobsen raised $130K to his $1 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Steve Gaw ,

Duane Burghard ,

and

Judy Baker

Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; superribbie (link above) ranks this the 25th most vulnerable Republican seat; the Republican contender appears to have raised no money.  

District: MT-AL

Location Entire state

Representative Denny Rehberg (R)*possibly retiring to run for Senate*

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 64-33

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Monica Lindeen raised $500K to Rehberg’s $1.1 million; in 2004, Tracy Velazquez raised $120K to Rehberg’s $600 K

Current opponents Jim Hunt

Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment If Rehberg runs for Senate, who knows?

When we look at large amounts of data, it’s hard to grasp all the relationships just from numbers.  If we just have lots of subjects but not a lot of variables there are some fairly common graphs to help show the data (see graphics: the good, the bad, and the ugly for some methods).  

But if we have a lot of variables, as well, then even those plots aren’t a complete solution.  One attempt to model data like this, with lots of subjects and lots of variables, is the biplot.  More below the fold

There are various types of biplots; we’re only going to be talking about the most common kind: The principal component biplot.  There are a few steps to making one of these.  You can get all math-y, but I’m not going to.  I’ll try to keep it as simple as possible, but if you hate math, and want to get to the politics…. well, look at the figure and then skip down to where I have the phrase “Interpreting the biplot”

This type of biplot works with variables that are continuous, or nearly so.  That is,  variables that can take on any value, not just a few.  Things like weight, height, and so on, rather than things like religion, or hair color, that can only take certain values.  

I had data on various demographic aspects of each of 435 congressional districts:  

% White non-Latino, % Black non-Latino, % Latino, % other

Median income, % in poverty

% Rural

% Veterans

Cook PVI

and whether the Rep was a Democrat or Republican

Except for the last, all these are continuous, or nearly so.  I changed Cook PVI a little, giving negative values to those that were R and positive to those that were D.

How can we represent all these data on one graph:

(it’s a little bigger here )

wow…. what’s that?

Well, the first thing I did was a principal components analysis (PCA) .  Skipping a lot of possibly important information — Get a correlation matrix of the data.  The goal of PCA is to find new variables that are linear combinations of the original variables.  The first PC should represent as much of the variance in the table as possible.  The second PC should represent as much of the remaining variance as possible, subject to being orthogonal to the first PC (you can think of orthogonal as meaning ‘unrelated’, although that isn’t exactly right).

In the figure above, note that the x-axis (that’s the horizontal one) is labeled Dimension 1: Proportion of variance .46.  That means that one variable, a linear combination of all the other variables, represents about half the variance in all those variables.  In other words, if you wanted to predict all of the original variables using only one number, this new number (the PC) would account for about half the variance in all those other numbers.  The y-axis (the vertical one) says that dimension 2 represents .24 of the variance.  So, together, this plot represents about 70% of the variance in all the original variables.

Next, each district gets a score on each of the PCs.  Those are the dots.  I’ve labeled some of them (more below).

Next, each variable gets whats called a loading on the PCs (never mind the details).  These are represented by lines.  

Interpreting the biplot.

OK, no more math (well…. I hope not!)

How to interpret the biplot?  First, note that the two proportions add to .7.  This biplot leaves out a lot (more below).  But it can still be useful.  Next, look at the lines. For example, poverty goes to the lower left.  So the variable poverty is low on PC1 and low on PC2.  Both Cook and Latino are off to the left, so they are low on PC1 and moderate on PC2.  White is off to the right.  

The CDs in the lower left (AL07, MS02, SC06, GA02) are high on poverty and high on Black….indeed, these are all “Black districts”.  The ones all the way on the left (NY07, FL18, 21, 25) are highly Latino districts, that aren’t Republican (more later).  The ones on the lower right have a lot of veterans.  And so on.

Now, we can use this biplot to find districts that might be vulnerable.  When there’s a black dot (Democratic rep) in a sea of red dots (Republicans) or vice versa, that might be a seat that’s vulnerable.

Vulnerable Republican seats include FL18, FL21, FL25, CA42, NM02, CA25, CA21 (that’s the red dot near NY28).

Continuing through the alphabet….

Minnesota has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is July 15, primary is Sept. 9

District: MN-01

Location Southern MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD

Representative Tim Walz (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents Walz ousted Gutknecht while raising $500 K less

Current opponents Dick Day, Mark Meyer, Brian Davis

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; Superribbie ranks this the 17th most vulnerable Democratic seat; still, Walz has to be favored.  

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities

Representative John Kline (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 56-40

2004 margin 56-40

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Collen Rowley raised $700K to Kline’s $1.5 million; in 2004, Teresa Daly raised $1.2 million to Kline’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Sarvi

Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment Possible.  Superribbie calls the 69th most vulnerable Republican seat.  I think it might be more vul. than that.  Kline’s winning percentage isn’t rising with time, he did barely better than Bush in 2004.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities

Representative Jim Ramstad (R) possibly retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money

Current opponents :

Terri Bonoff

Ashwin Madia

and former Repub: Jim Hovland

Demographics 26th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Black (3.8%)

Assessment So far as I can tell, Ramstad is retiring, making this a prime pickup opportunity; superribbie ranks this as the 12th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: MN-04

Location St. Paul and suburbs

Representative  Betty McCollum (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents In 2004, Patrice Bataglia raised $200K to McCollum’s $700K; in 2006, Obi Sium raised $75K to McCollum’s $600K

Current opponents John Mayer, possibly others. Mayer seems to have no website, others’ sites are down

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location Minneapolis and suburbs

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-21 (remainder to an independent)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Tammy Lee actually raised more money than the Republican (Alan Fine) and got almost the same number of votes.  Each raised about $200K, Ellison raised about $800K

Current opponents Apparently Barb White, who also might be running in MN-04, or maybe not running at all

Demographics 45th most Democratic, per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border

Representative Michele Bachmann (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-42 (remainder to John Binkowski)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents Bachmann beat out Wetterling for an open seat. Each spent about $3 million – Bachmann a little less, Wetterling a little more

Current opponents :

Bob Olson and

Elwyn Tinklenberg

Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment We have definite possibilities.  superribbie  (link above) ranks this the 45th most vulnerable Republ

District: MN-07

Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada

Representative Collin Peterson (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 70-29

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents In 2004, David Sturrock raised $125K to Peterson’s $500K.  In 2006, Michael Barrett raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment I don’t call a lot of people DINO, but Peterson is a DINO.  Still, he wins, he doesn’t use a lot of money, and he lines up on the D side, and this is a Republican district

District: MN-08

Location Northeastern MN, bordering WI, Lake Superior, and Canada, including Duluth and International Falls

Representative Jim Oberstar (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rod Grams raised $500K to Oberstar’s $1.4 million; the 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment safe

Massachusetts has 10 representatives: All Democrats

Filing deadline is June 3, primary is Sept 16

Michigan has 15 representatives: 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 13, primary is Aug 5

earlier entries in this series are here

District: MA-01

Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west.  Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT

Representative John Olver

First elected  1991

2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 35-63

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: MA-02

Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford

Representative Richard Neal (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MA-03

Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI

Representative Jim McGovern (D)

First elected 1996

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, Ron Crews raised $150K to McGovern’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Todd Williams

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MA-04

Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston

Representative Barney Frank (D)

First elected  1980

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)

Bush margin 2004 33-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Chuck Morse

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook

Assessment Safe

District: MA-05

Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence

Representative Niki Tsongas (D)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents No declared opponents

Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: MA-06

Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester.

Representative John Tierney (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised about $50K

Current opponents Rick Barton, who lost in 2006

Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-07

Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston

Representative Edward Markey (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 74-22

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents Chase, in 2004, raised about $62K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-08

Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea

Representative Michael Capuano (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 19-79

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-09

Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton

Representative  Stephen Lynch (D)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Jack Robinson raised $138K to Lynch’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MA-10

Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis

Representative Bill Delahunt (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 64-29

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jeffrey Beatty raised $100K to Delahunt’s $1 million; in 2004, Michael Jones raised $260K to Delahunt $840K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-01

Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part.  

Representative Bart Stupak (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 52-45

Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents Tom Casperson

Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Fairly safe

District: MI-02

Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan

Representative Pete Hoekstra (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Kimon Kotos ran both times, and did not raise money

Current opponents :

Fred Johnson

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-03

Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids

Representative Vernon Ehlers (R)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-04

Location Central MI

Representative Dave Camp (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-38

2004 margin 64-38

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Mike Huckleberry ran both time, and did not raise much – between $50K and $100K

Current opponents Andrew Concannon

Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MI-05

Location Flint and suburbs

Representative  Dale Kildee (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, Myrah Kirkwood raised $250K to Kildee’s $600K.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Bill Kelly

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-06

Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan

Representative Frederick Upton (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 61-38

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Kim Clark raised $150K to Upton’s $1 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: MI-07

Location Central part of souther MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek

Representative Tim Walberg (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin  50-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents Sharon Renier got 46% while raising only $55K

Current opponents Mark Schauer

Jim Berryman

Possibly Renier again

Demographics 68th most rural (46%)

Assessment Vulnerable.   Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Republican seat, and most vulnerable one that isn’t open.

District: MI-08

Location Lansing and surrounding area

Representative Mike Rogers (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin 61-37

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Marinowski raised $500 K to Rogers’ almost $2 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Long shot

District: MI-09

Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit

Representative Joe Knollenberg (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Nancy Skinner raised $400K to Knollenberg’s $3 million

Current opponents Gary Peters

and Rhonda Ross

Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable; superribbie (link above) calls this the 23rd most vulnerable Republican seat; Peters looks to be running a strong campaign

District: MI-10

Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron

Representative Candice Miller (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-31

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment long shot

District: MI-11

Location Far western suburbs of Detroit

Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 57-41

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tony Truppiano raised $130K to McCotter’s $900K

Current opponents Spencer ,

Edward Kriewall

Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this as the 56th most vulnerable Republican district

District: MI-12

Location Northern suburbs of Detroit

Representative Sander Levin (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MI-13

Location Detroit

Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 78-18

Bush margin 2004 19-81

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MI-14

Location Detroit

Representative John Conyers (D)

First elected  1964

2006 margin 85-15

2004 margin 84-16

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MI-15

Location Southern suburbs of Detroit

Representative John Dingell (D)

First elected  1955 (longest serving House member)

2006 margin 88% against minor parties

2004 margin 71-27

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

Kentucky has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline has passed, primary is May 20

Louisiana has 7 representatives: 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline is July 11, primary is Sept 6

Maine has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline is March 15, primary is June 10

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN.

Representative Ed Whitfield (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tom Barlow raised $100K to Whitfield’s $1 million, in 2004, Billy Cartwright raised little

Current opponents Heather Ryan (no site)

Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN.

Representative Ron Lewis (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Weaver raised $900K to Lewis’ $2 million.  In 2004, Adam Smith raised little

Current opponents David Boswell and Reed Haire (no sites) will run, against Daniel London, Lewis’ chief of staff or Brett Guthrie

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment Superribbie gives KY-02 a vulnerability score of 87 – not very vulnerable, and I have to agree.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering IN

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 49-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yarmuth ousted Anne Northup, while spending considerably less ($2.2 million to $3.4 million)

Current opponents Erwin Roberts and Daniel Seum, as well as Anne Northup

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a score of 103 – the 16th most vulnerable Democratic district. Assuming Northup wins, I think Yarmuth is favored – being the incumbent helps.

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV

Representative Geoff Davis (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ken Lucas raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $4.2 million.  In 2004, Nick Clooney raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $3 million

Current opponents Michael Kelley

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN

Representative Harold Rogers (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Frankfort

Representative Ben Chandler (D)

First elected  2004 (special election)

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. a Libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In the regular 2004 election, Tom Buford raised $137K to Chandler’s $1.6 million.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Although Superribbie’s vulnerability score here is pretty high (90, the 39th most vulnerable), I think he’s pretty safe. Of course, if no one runs, he’s totally safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie

Representative  None (Jindal is governor now)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Gilda Reed and a bunch of Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment LA has open elections, with everyone running at once (no primary first – or only a primary, whichever way you want to look at it).  This is a hugely Republican district, but there’s one Democrat running, and there might be a lot of Republicans…. who knows?

[[UPDATE]]

a commenter on dailyKos informs me that LA no longer has jungle primaries, so, this is a long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans

Representative William Jefferson (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 57-43 in runoff

2004 margin 79-21

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Notes on opponents In 2006 Karen Carter raised $1.2 million, about the same as Jefferson.  

Current opponents You mean, besides himself?  The WIKI lists a lot of potential candidates.  

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment Safe for a Democrat, unless somehow Jefferson winds up on the ballot while in jail, or something.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico

Representative Charlie Melancon (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin (in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000)

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Greg Romero raised $1.9 million to Melancon’s $2.6 million.  In 2004, Melancon ousted Tauzin, with each spending about $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably pretty safe

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AK, including Shreveport

Representative Jim McCrery (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 57%  (no runoff)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents none with money

Current opponents per the WIKI, the only declared Democrat is John Milkovich – his site does not inspire confidence, nor a great desiree to support him (DINO!). Others might run.

Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment This is a pickup possibility – superrribbie gives it a vulnerability of 99.  Will some good Democrat run?

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR

Representative Rodney Alexander (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gloria Hearns raised $150K to Alexander’s $1.2 million

Current opponents none declared

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA

Representative None (Richard Baker (R) quit)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents   Don Cazoyoux

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Who knows? Special election on March 8

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents In 2004, Willie Mount raised $1.3 million to Boustany’s $2.8 million.

Current opponents No declared Democrat

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland

Representative Tom Allen (D) retiring (for Senate run!)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charles Summers raised $500L to Allen’s $700 K; in 2006, Darlene Curley raised about $180K to Allen’s $650K

Current opponents Declared Democrats include:

Chellie Pingree

Michael Brennan

Mark Lawrence

Ethan Strimling

and

Adam Cote

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment Probably safe

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 58-39

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Notes on opponents In 2004, Brian Hamel raised $700K to Michaud’s $1.3 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment Safe

Here’s part seven of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are   here

Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Filing deadline was Feb 22, primary is May 6

Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Filing deadline is March 14, primary is June 3

Kansas has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Filing deadline is June 10, primary is August 5

District: IN-01

Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles

Representative Peter Visclosky (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 70-27

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Mark Leyva, who lost in 2004 and 2006

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IN-02

Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo

Representative Joe Donnelly (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Donnelly ousted Chocola while spending less than half what he spent (Donelly – $1.5 million, Chocola $3.4)

Current opponents Luke Puckett or Tony Zinkle

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not completely safe, but Chocola was harder to beat than either of the challengers Superribbie ranks this as 23rd most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: IN-03

Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne

Representative Mark Souder (R)

First elected 1994

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2006, Souder actually got outspent – both spent about $700K, but Thomas Hayhurst spent a little more

Current opponents Michael Montagno

Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI

Assessment Gotta be a long shot, but Superribbie ranks it as 68th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: IN-04

Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis

Representative Steve Buyer (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 69-28

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, David Sanders spent $133K to Buyer’s $500K

Current opponents Nels Anderson

Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment long shot

District: IN-05

Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis

Representative Dan Burton (R)

First elected 1982

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Notes on opponents Katherine Carr, the opponent both times, raised very little money

Current opponents Chester Kelsey and Mary Etta Ruley

Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most conservative per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: IN-06

Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH

Representative Mike Pence (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Barry Welsh

Demographics 41st fewest Latinos

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable Superribbie ranks him the 79th most vulnerable Republican

District: IN-07

Location Indianapolis and suburbs

Representative None (Julia Carson died in office) special election will be Andre Carson (D) vs. Jonathan Elrod (R)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents see above

Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)

Assessment Quite vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 37th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 91

District: IN-08

Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville

Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents Ellsworth ousted Hostetler, and also out-raised him – $1.7 million to $580K

Current opponents Greg Goode or Paul Abramson

Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 27th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 95

District: IN-09

Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington

Representative Baron Hill (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Hill and Mike Sodrel have been exchanging this district for years; in 2006, Hill raised $1.9 million to Sodrel’s $2.7 million

Current opponents Sodrel is running, as is Aaron Hawkins

Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment One of the most vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 110

District: IA-01

Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL

Representative Bruce Braley (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents This was an open seat, Braley and the Republican each had about $2.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)

Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a vulnerability of 86 (45th most vul Democrat) but Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent.  Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.

District: IA-02

Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids

Representative Dave Loebsack (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Loebsack ousted Jim Leach, in a race where each spent about $500 K

Current opponents Lee Harder (per WIKI, but perhaps others)

Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this one a 94, but Harder does not appear to be a serious threat.

District: IA-03

Location Central IA, including Des Moines

Representative Leonard Boswell (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 55-45

Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)

Notes on opponents In 2006, Boswell and Lamberti each raised about $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this a 94; Boswell has had only one comfortable win (in 2000).  If Lamberti runs, this may be competitive

District: IA-04

Location Northern central IA, including Ames.

Representative Tom Latham (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Selden Spencer raised about $500K to Latham’s $1.1 million.  The 2004 opponent raised less

Current opponents William Myers

Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this a vulnerability of 95; in national elections IA-04 has been very close. But Latham has won reasonably easily.  I don’t know much about Myers

District: IA-05

Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs

Representative Steve King (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-36

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Joyce Schulte ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $70K each time

Current opponents :

Rob Hubler

and

Bob Chambers

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-01

Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO

Representative Jerry Moran (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-20

2004 margin 91-9 (vs. a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 72-26

Notes on opponents John Doll, in 2006, raised about $60K

Current opponents  James Bordonaro (no site)

Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-02

Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka

Representative Nancy Boyda (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents Boyda ousted Jim Ryun, while spending $300K less than he did ($700K to $1 million)

Current opponents Jim Ryun and Lynn Jenkins

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  Superribbie ranks this the 3rd most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 112.  If Ryun wins the primary, it’s probably not too vulnerable, but Jenkins has a good shot

District: KS-03

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative Dennis Moore (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-34

2004 margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, Chuck Ahner raised $400K to Moore’s $1.8 million; in 2004, Kris Kobach raised $1.2 million to Moore’s $2.4 million

Current opponents Joel Balam, Nick Jordan and possibly Chuck Ahner and Paul Showem

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Superribbie gives KS-03 a 88 (42nd most vulnerable Democrat).  Moore had several close races before 2004.

District: KS-04

Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita

Representative Todd Tiahrt (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 64-34

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Donald Betts

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races, and Betts, a state senator, is his first serious opponent.  Could be interesting

Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Georgia has 13 representatives: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline May 2, primary July 15

Note that GA districts changed in 2005 due to Republican redistricting.

Hawaii has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline July 22, primary Sept 20

Idaho has 2 representatives, both Republicans

Filing deadline March 21, primary May 27

District: GA-01

Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville

Representative Jack Kingston (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Joe Nelson raised just over $100K, Kingston about 10 times as much

Current opponents Bill Gillespie

Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Long shot, although Gillespie is a war veteran, which should play well here

District: GA-02

Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus

Representative Sanford Bishop (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Notes on opponents Each raised about $25K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-03

Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state

Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents neither raised much over $50,000

Current opponents None declared, but several considering (see WIKI)

Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-04

Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta

Representative Hank Johnson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Catherine Davis raised $230 K to Johnson’s $786K.  Johnson replaced Cynthia McKinney and did even better than she did against Davis

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-05

Location Atlanta and some suburbs

Representative John Lewis (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 26-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-06

Location Northern central GA

Representative Tom Price (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents Steve Sinton raised $100K to Price’s $2 million

Current opponents Only a primary declared

Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-07

Location Northern central GA

Representative John Linder (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: GA-08

Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie

Representative Jim Marshall (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, this was hotly contested, with the Republicans raising about the same as Marshall each time (roughly $1 million in 2004 and $2 million in 2006)

Current opponents  A primary from Steve Nowak, and in the general, Rick Goddard, the NRCC candidate

Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).

Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don’t use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don’t really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout.  This is one district where Obama may have coattails, in that I have to assume he would draw more Blacks into the race. But I can’t find much about Nowak.  Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case

District: GA-09

Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC.

Representative Nathan Deal (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 77-23

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Joe Inman , maybe others

Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 7th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-10

Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) and including Macon and Augusta

Representative Paul Broun (R)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Bobby Saxon

Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-11

Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta

Representative Phil Gingrey (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2006, the opponent raised no money.  2004 is not really relevant

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 5th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-12

Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta

Representative John Barrow (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Max Burns, the opponent in both 2004 and 2006, raised lots of money; in 2004, he outspent Barrow by $1 million

Current opponents Chris Edenfield and Wayne Mosley and Ray McKinney; maybe others

Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: GA-13

Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta

Representative David Scott (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Notes on opponents Deborah Honeycutt, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, almost exactly even with Scott

Current opponents Honeycutt again

Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: HI-01

Location Honolulu and immediate environs

Representative Neil Abercrombie (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2004, Dalton Tanoaka raised over $200K, Abercrombie about $1 million.  In 2006, Richard Hough raised very little

Current opponents Richard Hough (who lost in 2006)

Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: HI-02

Location All of HI except Honolulu

Representative Mazie Hirono (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Bob Hogue raised $200K to Hirono’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Bob Hogue

Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: ID-01

Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise

Representative Bill Sali (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali’s $1 million

Current opponents   Larry Grant

and

Rand Lewis (site down)

and

Walt Minnick

Sali is also being primaried

Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy.  He’s really nuts.  He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)

District: ID-02

Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY

Representative Mike Simpson

First elected  1998

2006 margin 62-34

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson’s $570K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Long shot