Month: March 2007

(Should Hagel decide to run for President, this would be a map-changing event for Senate Democrats’ 2008 battle plans. For months, I’ve assumed that Hagel was disinclined to run for President, but perhaps he sees an opening for a solid conservative challenger to the Romney/McCain/Giuliani triangle that’s been giving grief to so many conservative activists. We’re just reading tea leaves here, for now. – promoted by James L.)

Originally posted at UNO Democrats

[The rumors are flying fast now in Nebraska, and it seems like in the next couple of weeks we’re going to see some real movement on Hagel’s plans. I thought I’d repost this here to pass along the info for all of you – Dave.]

OWH:

  WASHINGTON – For a guy who hasn’t announced a presidential bid, Sen. Chuck Hagel’s schedule next week looks a lot like that of a candidate.

  He’s slated to appear with nine declared presidential hopefuls – including John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama – before a national firefighters’ group.

  He’s meeting with his political action committee’s steering committee. He’s scheduled to attend a Nebraska GOP fund-raiser in Washington.

  And speculation was running high among key Nebraska Republicans that Hagel might announce something Monday.

Follow the money, they say. If Hagel is indeed gearing up for a run, he’s got to start raising money and fast. So, this item from the same World-Herald article is noteworthy:

  The day before that speech, Hagel is expected to attend a Nebraska Republican Party fund-raiser in Washington. Then, on Thursday, he’s to sit down with the steering committee of his Sandhills PAC.

  For months, Hagel’s fundraising had been all but dormant. But he held two fundraisers in the last week, including one Friday in New York City, raising $80,000 for his Senate and PAC campaign funds.

While the money from his Senate campaign account can be transferred into a Presidential account, it is the PAC activity that would hint strongly at a run for President. This article adds a bit of fuel to the months of speculation about Hagel’s political future, and its potential impact on the Nebraska political scene. Hagel’s decision – whether or not to run for re-election, whether to run for President – is going to impact the U.S. Senate race, possibly the race for our Congressional seat, all the way down to the Omaha city elections in 2009. But it seems that Hagel’s starting to mobilize. He’s running for something – the only question is what he’s running for.

UPDATE (3:53 PM CST) by DaveSund: The New York Times reports that Hagel will hold a press conference Monday to “discuss his future plans.”

UPDATE (4:42 PM CST) by DaveSund: The press conference will be on Monday at 10 a.m. at UNO’s campus, according to the AP.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

Polls will open on Saturday for the special open primary for LA-HD94, and the ballot is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear on Saturday:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Deborah Langhoff, the grassroots Democrat who is running on a compelling message of government reform, has been running an aggressive campaign as evidenced by this mailer, one directed at her most redoubtable opponent, Jeb Bruneau:

Such mailers are designed to keep Bruneau on the defensive, and it appears to be working, as Peppi, Jeb’s father, the Republican who abandoned this seat before the last legislative session of his 32 year term in order to bequeath it to his son in a rushed special election, must now answer the uncomfortable questions of constituents and reporters.  Langhoff effectively shaped the main theme of this race, and everyone, including the Bruneaus, both père and fils, must react to her claims and to her message.  These quotes from a Times Picayune article demonstrate the success of Langhoff’s media campaign:

Peppi Bruneau (R)

On the campaign trail, Bruneau’s resignation is being portrayed as a “political handoff.” Peppi Bruneau, however, says the sniping is only rhetoric.

“I have always said I didn’t intend to be term-limited,” he said. “I didn’t want to do that. It was like being a lame duck, and I didn’t want to be a lame duck.”

In a response to a constituent who questioned his motives, Bruneau wrote that the winner of the special election stands to gain instant seniority over the 50-plus new House members who will be elected in the fall.

“I think that this will provide an advantage for our area, and that is why I have resigned,” he wrote. “I do not find this to be an awkward moment.”

But Peppi Bruneau scoffs at any notion that anything nefarious is afoot.

“How can you sneak something through when there are five opponents?” he asked. “I’d say interest is pretty high in this race.”

Deborah Langhoff (D)

“I’m not saying they did anything illegal, but they definitely manipulated the process,” Langhoff said.

Nick Lorusso (R)

Lorusso said Bruneau — who will step down on April 30, the first day of the regular legislative session — abandoned the devastated district for his final term of office to bolster his son’s chances of election.

“It’s outrageous,” said Lorusso, echoing the feelings of most of the other candidates. “When this district needs Peppi Bruneau the most, we won’t have him.”

Jeb Bruneau (R)

For his part, Jeb Bruneau says his father did not urge him to run for a position he feels he is prepared to hold, having served nearly two years as president of the Lakeview Civic Association and having helped to coordinate the ongoing recovery of his neighborhood.

“If you want to be upset with Peppi, be upset with Peppi,” he said. “But judge Jeb on Jeb.

“This was not my idea. I understand what it means to be part of a political family. Let’s face it, my decision to run would have been an issue in the fall, too.”

Philip Brickman (R)

For example, on his Web site, Brickman refers readers to a newspaper article on what he calls “our district’s last-minute special election.”

The cost of holding an election on that day was anticipated when lawmakers adopted the state budget last year, Peppi Bruneau said. Whatever the cost, Brickman said, “it is a waste of taxpayer money.”

John Holahan (D)

And as part of his platform, Holahan is pledging to introduce legislation to eliminate special elections when legislators resign with less than a year left in a term. Instead of incurring the expense of an election, Holahan’s proposal calls for the House leadership to fill the vacancy on an interim basis with the appointee barred from running for the job.

Langhoff shaped the terms of this election, and she has the heir apparent cornered.  As the Times Picayune reports, “While crime, education and the slow pace of the hurricane recovery are integral parts of the campaign debate, references to the incumbent’s resignation are inescapable.”

Although Deborah has effectively defined this election, she still trails in fundraising.  According to the Times Picayune,

State campaign finance reports that cover activity through Feb. 28 show that Jeb Bruneau had raised about $85,000, significantly more than any of his opponents.

Raising the next-highest total was Langhoff, with about $15,000, followed by Brickman with $5,500 and Holahan with $4,500. No fundraising was reported by either Lorusso or Vanderwall.

For a grassroots candidate with no support from the Democratic establishment, Langhoff is performing really well.  If she qualifies for the runoff, I imagine Louisiana Democrats will be forced to support her campaign.  More egregious, however, is the lack of support Langhoff is receiving from local Democrats, particularly City Councilwoman Cynthia Hedge-Morrell, state Sen. Ed Murray and state Rep. J.P. Morrell, who are all inexplicably endorsing Republican Jeb Bruneau. These three elected officials should reconsider their endorsements,especially as Democrats may lose their majorities in the state House and Senate.

But Deborah has secured the endorsements of the AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, a Hurricane Katrina relief organization.  And even though Jeb Bruneau managed to secure the endorsement of establishment Democrats in New Orleans, he failed to capture the endorsement of the Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb is a member.  That endorsement went to Republican Nick Larusso.

Because this race is not yet over, I ask you to contribute to Langhoff’s campaign.  Not only has she managed to shape the terms of this election on very limited funds; she has a real chance of qualifying for the runoff.  Early support will catapult her ahead of her presumptive runoff opponent Jeb Bruneau for this crucial Louisiana House seat.  Also visit her website, where one can view her videos.  This candidate understands the issues facing her district, and she will recreate and reactivate the Louisiana Democratic Party from within.  Let us back Deborah Langhoff.

 

In the interests of not bringing only doom and gloom from the South, the Alabama Democrats (warning: this page is somewhat screwy in Firefox) put up a successful defense tonight of an open seat in the state House left vacant after its incumbent, longtime conservative Democratic Rep. Albert Hall died on November 12.  Republicans made a major push for this district, which included bringing in Gov. Bob Riley to stump for the Republican candidate.  In the end, the Democrat, Butch Taylor, was elected with a very comfortable 58%.  Democrats now enjoy a 62-43 advantage in the state house.

Well played, Alabama Democrats.  Well played.

You may remember these results from election night ’06:

4th District, Colorado

Marilyn Musgrave (R): 46%
Angie Paccione (D): 43%
Eric Eidsness (Reform): 11%

Eric Eidsness is a former Naval officer and Reagan appointee to the EPA.  His Wikipedia bio also lists his affiliation with Republicans For Kerry in 2004.  Despite competing for attention in a marquee race, Eidsness managed to pick up a bit of traction, gaining the endorsements of several local newspapers and cracking the double digits on election day.

Without wasting any time, Eidsness is back in the ring, and this time, he’s wearing Democratic stripes:

Eric Eidsness […] announced today that he’s switching his party affiliation to Democrat.

The announcement is likely a prelude to another congressional run for Eidsness, a long-time Republican who was a top Environmental Protection Agency administrator in the Reagan administration.

“I am a new Democrat who can bring business savvy and fiscal restraint to the Democratic Party’s proposals should I run for Congress in 2008 and win,” Eidsness said in a prepared statement.

I’m not sure how he’d manage in a primary field, but this an interesting development.  As far as third-party types go, it’s clear that Eidsness has a bit of game in him.  Will Colorado Democrats be comfortable–or willing–to hand the torch over to him?

(Hat-tip to Luis and Square State.)

Race Tracker: CO-04

Southern Media and Opinion Research has the first poll of the year for the Democrats’ biggest defensive target up in 2008, the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu.  In a hypothetical matchup between Sen. Landrieu and recently-elected Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, they come up with this snapshot (Jan. 12-14, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): 53
Jay Dardenne (R): 38
MoE: ±4%

The poll also notes that Dardenne (who, at this point, is only one of several possible challengers to Landrieu) has a name-recognition of two-thirds in the state.  It’s nice to see Landrieu in the lead, but this it’s still way too early to get a feel for this race.  As the polling firm notes, on paper, Dardenne seems to be a fairly good challenger–already enjoying good statewide name recognition (but still with some room to grow), and 15 points is by no means an insurmountable gap at this stage in the game.  Still, in light of all of the disastrous polls showing Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) trailing Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) in the 2007 Governor’s race by as much as 24 points, it’s nice to know that the state may not ready for a complete Democratic purge just yet.  Republicans will still wisely throw everything that they have at this one, though.

(Hat-tip to rob.)

Race Tracker:  LA-Sen

Since Republican Cong. Charles Boustany has now ruled out a race against incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana it appears that she may be in better shape for another term than was originally thought. A January poll published today in the Advocate shows that she leads Republican challenger Jay Dardenne by a wide margin. The Louisiana race has been of much concern to Democratic insiders because of the loss of hundreds of thousands of voters who relocated to other states after Hurricane Katrina.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

This is my first posting on Swing Space Project.  I’m here not only because I care about the outcome of elections – I do – but because how we elect them matters, and what they stand for matters too.

And I’ll come right out and say it: while it’s exciting that a new wave of members of Congress just swept into office in 2007, I’m worried that the way campaign finance works and the rigors of fundraising will keep them-and their colleagues in Congress and in statehouses-from realizing their full potential as representatives.  So I’m here to voice my concern.  We need “clean elections,” or the full public financing of elections, as a way to restore faith in the political process and to make sure that a wide range of folks can run and win.

Jason Altmire in PA-04 was featured in a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette story on February 5th describing his fundraising prowess since November 7. 

Just three months after his victory over incumbent Melissa Hart, U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire is keeping a brisk fund-raising pace.

Sounds like he’s no slouch-and that’s critical if he wants to remain in his seat in a battleground district.

The Post-Gazette continues:

The freshman Democrat from McCandless collected more than $74,000 between the Nov. 7 election and the end of the year, according to campaign finance data released last week.

But note the juxtaposition, because then he said this:

I’d support and work hard to pass any bill that takes money out of politics.

And he did this:

Mr. Altmire signed onto the “Voters First Pledge” of the Public Campaign Action Fund, Common Cause (where I work), Public Citizen and other groups who argue that public financing of elections would allow politicians to spend less time raising money and more time tending to the concerns of constituents.

Altmire is far from the only one.  So many of the Democrats who ran and won seats in November campaigned on the issues of corruption and the need to restore transparency and trust in the government.  Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel is giving all the freshmen the $1 million homework assignment: Rep. Tim Walz (MN-01) said Mr. Emanuel told him

Start raising money now… And here’s your goal. Have $1 million in the bank by the time this race gets ready next time.

So which are they supposed to do, legislate or fundraise?  And similarly, when they’re on the campaign trail, do they talk to voters or big donors?  The answer, eight hours out of 10, is the latter.  I don’t blame them – in fact, I trust Altmire when he says he wants to take money out of the process – but I’m fed up with this system where the Jason Altmires of the world (and the Patrick Murphys and the Tim Walzs and the Jerry McNerneys) have to raise boatloads of money instead of going in there and actually cleaning up.

Luckily there’s momentum to pass this sort of fundamental campaign finance reform for Congress, led by Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. John Tierney, but it’ll still take some pushing from the rest of us.  Just putting progressive-minded folks in office isn’t the last step – it’s making sure our system doesn’t prevent them from working towards the changes that they want, that all of us – not just the deep-pocketed donors – need.

This diary has been cross posted on CommonBlog.com

How else am I to read into this quip by Republican Senator Jim Inhofe at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference?

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) got the crowd cheering early in the day. “I have been called — my kids are all aware of this — dumb, crazy man, science abuser, Holocaust denier, villain of the month, hate-filled, warmonger, Neanderthal, Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun,” he announced. “And I can just tell you that I wear some of those titles proudly.”

As an aside, Oklahoma Democrats would be well-advised to run a credible challenger against Inhofe in 2008.  It’d be worth it alone to see what other “laugh lines” Inhofe produces during the scheduled televised debates.

(Hat-tip to the always sharp Senate 2008 Guru.)

Race Tracker: OK-Sen

That’s the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:

On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives.  All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots.  This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts.  The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats.  Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:

Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.

And here’s what she had to say about what was at stake:

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.

So let’s put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry’s performance in the district in 2004.  When the locals can’t break Kerry’s benchmark, you know that we’ve written a new definition for “rock bottom” in Louisiana.

So what happened?  By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not.  Their candidate, “Jim” Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown.  Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall.  By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.

Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits.  As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year.  With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.

The stakes of this are fairly high.  Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans.  On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana’s congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state’s representation to account for population loss.

Additionally, how does ceding certain “swing” districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats’ ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu?  Not well, I would argue.

If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats.  With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial.  Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.

The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly–the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue–one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle.  Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out?  Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov | LA-Sen | LA-03

The following is a diary Mike Stagg, who ran for the House in LA-07 last November, posted at MyDD on Friday, only to have it pushed aside by all the Presidential diaries.  After we lost one LA State House seat last weekend, I believe we should try to support Langhoff, whether it be through volunteering, contributing or blogging.  Here is Mike’s dairy, and I will try to write more at another time.  Although Mike works with the Langhoff campaign, I do not; I just support her candidacy. 

Deborah Langhoff, you may recall from my other diaries, is a Democrat running for a seat recently vacated by a Republican.  Because Republicans plan on sweeping all statewide and legislative offices this year, we really need to win this seat.  Langhoff’s main Republican opponent in the open primary is Jeb Bruneau, the son of Republican Peppi Bruneau, who evacuated this seat on short notice in order to create a short special election cycle to the benefit of his son.  Langhoff is a grassroots organizer who has the chance to win this seat, and I ask everyone to support her and her really promising campaign.

Anyone interested in seeing the Republican game plan for 2007 unveiled should keep their eye on the special election in House District 94 where Democrat Deborah Langhoff has emerged as a threat to win the seat.

Langhoff, who has won endorsements from the Greater New Orleans AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, has been warned in recent days that she is about to become the subject of a smear campaign. How did she learn of this? From Republicans (including at least one candidate) who wanted her to know that they “had nothing to do” with what is, allegedly about to happen.

Element One of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Crank Up the Slime Machine! No doubt money from the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is not far removed from this effort.

Then, today, Jeb Bruneau — the designated heir apparent for whose benefit this special election was engineered (thanks to his daddy’s resignation from the seat) rolled out a mailer touting an endorsement from the leading Republican candidate for governor — Bobby Jindal. Poor Jeb! Bobby’s probably telling him how to run his campaign now! 😉

The mailer looks more like a Jindal piece than a Bruneau piece. No 
doubt Jindal approved it.

Element Two of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Create an air of inevitability. This, actually, is out of the Karl Rove playbook. Work the media, tout your internal poll numbers (that you won’t let anyone see) or the numbers of a friendly pollster who will skew things your way. Try to depress voter turnout among Democrats by creating a defeatist attitude.

But, the Langhoff campaign is going to unveil a Democratic template of its own. It’s called Fighting Back!

If/when the smear comes, Deborah and her team will come out fighting, slamming the Republican slime machine, calling them out on their cynicism, their reliance on manipulation of process and people in a deceitful effort to retain/gain power at all costs.

Deborah needs your help NOW! There are nine days until the primary. 

The wheels are coming off the Bruneau campaign. The Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb Bruneau is a member, endorsed another candidate. Deborah’s direct mail campaign has slammed the blatant manipulation of the election process by Peppi Bruneau with the intent of benefitting Jeb — and people are responding. Why are they responding? Because they recognize the attempted manipulation and Deborah has had the courage to call the Bruneaus on it.

As you know, Republicans have targeted at least 37 House seats currently held by Democrats for Republican takeover this fall. They don’t believe they have a single vulnerable seat.

Democrats have a chance to take that seat through Deborah Langhoff’s inspiring campaign.

We can knock their alleged juggernaut off the tracks before it even gets rolling — IF YOU WILL HELP DEBORAH’S CAMPAIGN!!!

Go here: Deborah Langhoff’s website

Make a contribution — even if you don’t live in the district. If you live in or near the district, make a contribution and get involved directly in the campaign. Volunteer to phone bank or walk neighborhoods.

Republicans have big plans for Louisiana that start in 2008. As John Lennon said: “Life is what happens while you’re busy making plans.” Victories are won that way, too. We can upset those GOP plans by working together in 2007.

Help Deborah Langhoff resist the Swiftboating of her campaign! It’s a preview of what Democrats across this state are going to face this fall.

Help fight it NOW!!!