Month: August 2007

Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer was asked “What makes Gary Peters qualified to face Joe Knollenberg?” in his latest video blog.

Jump the fold to read more. 

Mark is right when he says Gary will be an outstanding member of Congress. He certainly has the experience!

While in the Senate, he served as the ranking Democrat on the Finance, Education, Judiciary, Natural Resources, and Families and Mental Health Committees. – Peters For Congress

While at the lottery Gary not only increased sales by over $600 million, but did it while staying under budget by $13 million. It is this type of fiscal responsibility that will keep our country strong for future generations.

You can see why Joe Knollenberg is so nervous this time. He will be asking all his lobbyists, special interests, and donors to provide the $4 million his finance director thinks they'll need to beat Gary.

Clearly Mark Brewer's kind words and publicity on the Michigan Democratic Party website are a great sign for the Peters campaign. 

Fifteen months ago, DavidNYC extended a humbling offer to promote me from the comments section to the front page of the Swing State Project.  It’s been an absolute blast to write for and help steer this blog over the past year, which is why I’m very excited to announce that the Swing State Project team is adding a new contributing editor this weekend.

Please give a warm welcome to Trent Thompson, an energetic young Democrat from Alabama.  This spring, Trent made a major splash as the publisher of Sack Sessions, a blog dedicated to the defeat of Senator Jeff Sessions.  Trent was also instrumental in helping us build an exciting (if ultimately unsuccessful) effort to draft Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks into the Senate race this year.  He has since gone on to join Left in Alabama, a growing community blog for progressive action in his home state, as a front page poster.  I can’t say enough good things about Trent; he’s an excellent writer and he’ll offer a valuable perspective to SSP, especially on Southern races.  With Trent on board, we stand to be in even stronger shape in the near future.

Since we're all having fun speculating potential successors for Hillary Clinton in the Senate should she win the Presidency, let's take a moment to look at Illinois, too.

Assuming Barack Obama crushes Tom Tancredo in the 2008 Presidential election, whom might Gov. Rod Blagojevich appoint to serve the final two years of Obama's Senate term?  Whom would you like Blago to appoint? 

The most common name that I've heard batted around for a hypothetical Senate promotion is Attorney General Lisa Madigan.  Other possibilities could include Comptroller Dan Hynes, who finished second to Obama in the 2004 Senate primary, or perhaps a Representative like Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Any other possibilities?  Tammy Duckworth?  Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn?  Blago himself?  (Shudder to think.)  Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Rep. Richard Baker, a Republican representing the Baton Rouge-based 6th District of Louisiana, has decided not to challenge Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year.  From PoliticsLA: 

Baker says he has been taking meetings with party leaders to discuss the idea, and has left the possibility open in press interviews. But now he reveals that he is happy in the House, where a Democratic majority has managed to put only small dent in his seniority – he originally took the lead on Louisiana's housing woes in the wake of Katrina and brokered a deal on a water-resources bill last month that had been stalled in Congress for seven years. “The Republicans, state and federal, see the Landrieu race as a competitive one and, at the moment, I'm not so sure there's a candidate out there,” Baker says. “But I can tell you it is nothing I intend to take on.

Not too surprising, given Baker's sluggish fundraising this year.  The full court press by national Republicans returns to “Democratic” State Treasurer John Kennedy, who, as you may recall, ran to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux in 2004 and earned only 15% of the vote.  I hope he doesn't run, because you could just imagine all those gleeful Republican talking heads squealing in delight about how they managed to get someone named “John Kennedy” to abandon the Democratic Party.

UPDATE: John Kennedy also announced today that he will seek re-election for his State Treasurer post this fall.  However, I do not see how such a move could prevent him from starting up a Senate campaign after November, and I have not seen any statements ruling that possibility out as of yet.

Bear with me here.  Let's assume for a moment that Hillary is our 2008 Presidential nominee, and that she wins.  Fast forward to the election aftermath, where Gov. Eliot Spitzer has the task of appointing a replacement to fill Clinton's Senate vacancy.

Whom might Spitzer appoint?  And whom would you want Spitzer to appoint?

Spitzer surprised many observers when he tapped state Senator David Paterson for his running mate in 2006, and perhaps he could surprise again given the chance.  Despite being large in number, there is no one of tremendous stature in the state's Democratic congressional delegation who could be tapped (Charlie Rangel, at 77, is too old), but that's not to say that I think a promotion from the House to the Senate is unlikely.

If Spitzer wanted to get political rival and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo off his back, he could always appoint him, but that seems unlikely given their prickly relationship.

Perhaps even Paterson himself could be a possibility, but one would expect that Spitzer would come under pressure to balance the state's Senatorial delegation with an appointee from upstate rather than a second Senator with Brooklyn roots.

There has been little talk yet of this subject, possibly because Hillary must leap through two hoops (the primary and the general election) before such a scenario occurs.  But we here at Swing State like to explore the hypotheticals, so share your thoughts in the comments below.

 

The 11^th District Democrats are pleased to invite you to:

 

 

 

Our first annual organizational dinner on Friday, August 17^th 7:30 PM at Aurelio’s on 310 W. Lincoln Highway in Frankfort, IL.

 

Please join us for food, drink, and a discussion of the state of Democratic politics in the 11^th District.

 

Only $20 to participate in this inaugural gathering.

 

Additional contributions welcome.

 

Expected attendees include 2006 11^th Congressional District candidate John Pavich and presumptive 2008 candidate Jerry Weber

 

 

 

            The 11^th District Democrats is an organization which has recently been created to further the cause of Democratic politics within our district.  Our goal is to help raise volunteers, money, and awareness to aid those running in local, state, and federal elections.   Also, we hope to facilitate coordination between local and county Democratic organizations.  Obviously, in order to build a permanent party infrastructure, we need individuals interested in our cause to actively participate in the process.   To this end, we would be pleased if you joined us at our dinner to learn more about the organization, as well as offer any ideas or suggestions.

 

 

 

Please pay either by cash or check at the event.  Make checks payable to the “11^th District Democrats”. 

 

If you are unable to attend, but still would like to join the organization, please send your contact information to Nikhil Bhatia via email or telephone.  Donations for those unable to attend can be mailed to 580 Butternut Trail, Frankfort, IL 60423.

 

PLEASE RSVP by August 10.

 

Email: nbhatia3@uiuc.edu

 

Telephone: (815) 557-3528.

 

(From the diaries with light editing for formatting. A Mark Schauer candidacy would immediately make this race into a knock-down, top tier contest. Schauer has a solid base in the heart of the district and a strong resume as Minority Leader in the State Senate. I hope he tosses his hat into the ring. – promoted by James L.)

State Senator Mark Schauer, a Battle Creek Democrat, was mentioned quite a bit last fall and early this year as a potential candidate for Congress in the 7th District. He's been a fantastic party leader in the legislature, supporting the netroots and working to solve the Michigan budget crisis. His name was even tossed around by supporters of Joe Schwarz in 2006 as a reason not to vote for Tim Walberg, suggesting that Walberg in 2006 would inevitably lead to a Schauer victory in 2008.

Schauer and his staff quashed most speculation this spring, promising to stay on as leader of the Democratic caucus in the Senate until the end of his term in 2010. Most observers– including journalist Jack Lessenberry— thought he would have been a formidable candidate, but Schauer seemed determined to sit this election out.

But all of that might be changing.

For those that don't recall, Michigan's 7th District is currently represented by far-right wing Congressman Tim Walberg. Walberg is one of those conservatives who opposes little things, like taxes and the separation of church and state. He defeated the well-respected moderate Congressman Joe Schwarz (a Republican also from Battle Creek) in a very nasty primary funded mostly by the Club for Growth.

But back to Mark Schauer.  Starting last night, I started hearing rumors that Schauer might be reconsidering his previous decision. Then the subscription-only MIRS News service reported that Schauer would contact Jim Berryman and David Nacht sometime today to let them know whether or not he would “seriously consider” running in 2008. Then the AP picked it up:

    LANSING, Mich. (AP) — State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, may challenge U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after brushing off earlier overtures to enter the race.

    Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term through 2010, said Wednesday he is discussing a bid for Congress with family, colleagues and constituents before making a “final decision.”

    “I would bring the same commonsense, results-oriented approach to this role as I have to my entire career in public service,” Schauer, 45, said in a statement.

    Schauer said it had become “painfully clear that Tim Walberg cares more about what's best for Republican leadership in Washington than what's best for Michigan's 7th district. […]

    Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Battle Creek, said Wednesday he spoke to Schauer earlier in the day and the state senator told him “he was looking at” the congressional race. Schwarz said Schauer did not indicate when he would make a final decision.

    Schwarz, who was defeated by Walberg in last year's Republican primary, said he had not made a decision on whether he would re-seek his old congressional seat.

    Schwarz, a physician, is chairing a task force on health care needs in southeast Michigan and said he would not announce any plans on the congressional race until his task force releases a report in September.

The plot thickens further with Michigan Liberal's lpackard's discovery that the domain schauerforcongress.com has been registered.

I've been following this all day today with e-mails and phone calls to a bunch of different people, and this is what I've got: Schauer has not announced whether or not he'll run, and likely hasn't made a final decision. As is suggested by the article above, we're now in a period where he may be watching to see what kind of support he may have. “Testing the waters,” as it were.

In other words, if you want Mark Schauer to run for Congress, now would be the time to let him know about it.

Adapted from a post at Walberg Watch. (Thanks to Michigan Liberal.)

UPDATE: Apparently, MIRS is reporting that a DCCC poll conducted showed Schauer leading Walberg by three percent, and by eight percent when positives and negatives of each are read.

If the first day of the campaign is any indication, Gary Peters for Congress will make an impact.

• In the Detroit Free Press the DCCC says Knollenberg has “every reason to fear a strong candidacy from Gary Peters”
• Today’s Oakland Press quotes Gary as saying this race will be the “number one in the state”
• The Birmingham Eccentric highlights Gary’s goal to make health care affordable and available
• Crains Detroit quotes Gary saying he will “fight tooth and nail for every Michigan job”
• Talking Points Memo Election Central covered the announcement, highlighting Gary’s experience as a Lt. Commander and SEABEE combat specialist.
• mLIVE quotes Oakland County Democratic Party Chairman Dave Woodward calling Gary the “frontrunner”
• WLNS reminds readers Knollenberg is coming out of his toughest re-election ever
• Richard Owl Mirror’s blog compares Gary to Mr. Smith, and says we need to send him to Washington
• Michigan Class Notes is excited to see a strong challenger in the 9th
• The Detroit News mentions this race is going to be expensive, and that Knollenberg is hoping for a Democratic primary to waste resources
• So of course it is no wonder Gary raised over $2,000 in just one day at ActBlue
• Michigan Liberal,  Daily Kos,  MyDD, and Swing State Project readers all got to see the Peters Announcement

We will continue to introduce Gary to the blogosphere. If you would like to get involved in the campaign, please signup for email alerts at PetersForCongress.com. Show the DCCC that we need to pickup House seats in Michigan!

(Discuss. – promoted by James L.)

Most of the news in the Swing State Project is based around specific races and candidates, but I'd like to get a more general look at the Congressional races. More to the point, I'm trying to look into your expectations, what are you expecting in the 2008 elections? And what would you consider to be a huge win or a huge loss?

So, here are my expectations:

Senate Races

Expecting: (Dems pick up 2-3 seats)

Reason: The environment in the senate already gives the Democrats a huge advantage (only defending 12 compared to the Republicans' 22), in addition the national mood favors the Democrats pretty well overall. The individual races give me a bit more pause, the Democrats have a good advantage in two senate races already (Colorado and New Hampshire) with strong prospects in at least three other states (Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon). Having said that, the Democrats are in trouble in Louisiana, and in a presidential year, I'm having a hard time seeing Mary Landrieu surviving the race in Louisiana if the governors race doesn't turn around. Additionally, the Democrats might have another competitive seat in South Dakota, depending on the condition of Tim Johnson and whether or not Rounds decides to challenge him. The two assumes the Democrats win in both Colorado and New Hampshire and picks up one of the three states with high prospects and Mary Landrieu loses her seat, the three assumes the previous conditions with Landrieu keeping her seat.

Big Win: Dems win 5+ seats

Reason: In addition to the seats mentioned on top, there is still the potential for more competitive seats coming from North Carolina, New Mexico, Virginia, Alaska, and Kentucky. My minimum of five seats assumes a clean sweep of all the competitive seats, assuming how some of these states go, it could end up being a landslide, picking up 6-8 seats in the senate. Keep in mind that I think winning 8 seats is only technically possible, and I'd probably have a heart attack from shock if that happened.

Big Defeat: Dems lose 0-2 seats

Reason: The flip side of the coin has to be the possibility of some Democratic seats being compeitive. I've already covered Louisiana and South Dakota, so I'll also bring into the equation the possibilties of competitive races in Iowa and Arkansas. Huckabee could still challenge Pryor and the possibility is still there that he could lose. The zero assumes either no incumbent party lost seats or the Dems either picked up New Hampshire or Colorado but lost Louisiana, the 2 assumes the Democrats don't win anything and lose in Louisiana and in either Arkansas or South Dakota. Again, keep in mind this is another of the shock scenarios, the chances of this happening are about the same as the chances of the Dems winning 8 or more seats.

I've got to get ready for work, so I'll post what I think for the House a little later. And if you disagree with me, please, I want to know what you think.

Update:

Alright, I’m going to give my outlook for the House, now keep in mind that I’ve actually been concentrating a bit harder on the Senate than the House, so I’m only going to give what I think the general mood is, you House watchers, if you think I’m wrong, please speak up and correct me:

House

Expecting: Dems break even or pick up 1-2 seats

Reason: Ok, the overall national mood still favors the Democrats, and while the Senate is definitely a huge opportunity for the Dems, the House is a very different story. With the purging of a lot of Republicans from blue districts in the Northeast (Connecticut, New Hampshire, and New York) and the fact it’s a presidential year, I don’t really see the Democrats making a repeat of 2006. The Democrats are going to have to defend a bunch of newly acquired seats such as TX-22 and FL-16. The Dems do have the ability to knock off a few more Republicans though, (NM-1 [Heather the Feather] and CT-4, for example). While the DCCC does have a money advantage over the NRCC, it’s not as dramatic as the one between the DSCC and the NRSC.

Big Win: Democrats pick up 6+ seats

Reason: Keeping in mind all everything I’ve mentioned before, the overall mood does favor the Democrats, and with more retirements likely to be on the way from Republicans, the Democrats have the potential to make a few more competitive races in swing districts. Additionally, if the Republicans pick someone like Rudy Giuliani, who would likely hurt conservative turnout in Republican districts, that might be enough to give the Democrats an edge in a few more areas.

Big Loss: Republicans pick up 4+ seats.

Reason: Look, I want it to be perfectly clear, the Republicans won’t pick up the House next year, they just don’t have the resources, will, or stability to do it. Having said that, there are definitely circumstances where the Republicans can pick up a few seats, as I mentioned before, TX-22 and FL-16 are probably going to be difficult to hold on to, not to mention KS-3 and NH-2 (was it 1 or 2 that was the suprise pick up in House?). Additionally, the congressional seat won by John Hall might be in trouble if Ari Fleschier decides to run against him. There are still other districts with really big problems like in Arizona, Georgia, and a few other House seats, but you should keep in mind this is the “nightmare” scenario, one to be prepared for, but not paranoid about either.

The race to fill Republican Butch Otter’s open seat in Idaho’s first district was one of my favorite stories to write about last year.  In what is now a campfire legend, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali rode a wave of bad press for his asinine antics and bad reputation in the Idaho state legislature to a spectacularly dismal 49-46 victory over Democrat Larry Grant last November.  (And when Bush carries your district with 68% of the vote, no self-respecting Republican candidate has any business performing that badly.)

However, aside from being the handmaiden of his campaign benefactors, the economic regressives at the Club For Growth, Sali has kept a mostly low profile in the House this year.  So one might expect that Sali’s high negatives have softened over the past eight months, right?  Well, maybe not, if you believe the latest polling. 

Via The Hill and New West comes news of a new poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showing Sali with some serious baggage (“voters”, July 11-13):

Bill Sali (R-inc.)
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 46
No Opinion: 13
Unaware: 12
MoE: ±5.3%

Just dismal.  And how does Larry Grant fare, the rematch candidate who commissioned the poll?

Larry Grant (D)
Favorable: 28
Unfavorable: 13
No Opinion: 29
Unaware: 30
MoE: ±5.3%

So, despite losing a close race and feeling the full fury of the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Club For Growth (who spent $483,000 and $441,000 smearing Grant’s name, respectively, in the closing weeks of the campaign), Grant walks away with only a 13% disapproval rating, while 59% of the district’s voters either do not recognize his name or have no opinion of him either way.  Losing a House race, it would seem, does not earn one a great deal of meaningful name recognition.

While Sali has not shaken off his negatives, it is difficult not to mention that this district had little problem re-electing the late Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth despite her own psychedelically nutty reputation.  It seems that Sali still has yet to endear himself in the same way, though.

PS: You might remember the Boise-based Smith & Associates firm as the curators of a startling poll last fall showing Sali’s support evaporating while the rest of his Republican colleagues were in solid shape.