Month: October 2007

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

If you ever had the misfortune of being on being on the receiving end of an National Republican Congressional Committee media alert last cycle, you’ll know that they took special delight in mocking DCCC Chair Rahm Emmanuel for his supposed recruiting failures in key House races.  These press releases always were marked by the title “DCCC Delusions”.  Since the NRCC has had some notable difficulties in recruiting top-shelf challengers in a number of districts (OH-15, anyone?) this year, why don’t we tally up all the candidates who took a pass on efforts by the national and state Republican parties to recruit them into House races.

I’ve got a few so far, but I have a feeling that I’m just scratching the surface.  Post any additional recruitment failures in the comments section below, if you know of any.

AZ-01: Ex-state Sen. President Ken Bennett
CT-02: Former US Rep. Rob Simmons
FL-16: Former state Rep. and ’06 candidate Joe Negron
FL-22: Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Sen. Jeff Atwater
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff
FL-22: Palm Beach Co Commis. Mary McCarty
IL-11: State Sen. Christine Radogno
ME-01: State Sen. Jon Courtney
MN-01: Former US Rep. Gil Gutknecht
NC-11: State Sen. Tom Apodaca
NH-02: Former US Rep. Charlie Bass
NY-19: Former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer
OH-15: Former state AG Jim Petro
OH-15: Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka
OH-15: Former WBNS-TV anchor Dave Kaylor
OH-15: State Rep. Jon Husted
OH-15: State Rep. Jim Hughes
OH-15: State Sen. Steve Stivers
OH-15: Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes
PA-04: Former Pittsburgh Steeler and ’06 Gov Nominee Lynn Swann
PA-10: Former Deputy state AG Joe Peters
PA-10: U.S. Attorney Thomas A. Marino
TX-22: Sugarland Mayor David Wallace
TX-22: Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt
TX-22: State Rep. John Zerwas

Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow morning where he is expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat now held by the retiring Pete Domenici. Chavez would be the first big name Democrat to enter the race.

Good news?  Bad news?  This will be debated heavily between bloggers and Democrats, as noted in the article:

Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?

Article Here: http://www.coldheart…

What do you guys think?  In comparison to Wiviott, the only other Democratic challenger, I feel Chavez is a step forward on beating Heather Wilson and a step back on policy, although that cannot really be decided until he sets his platform. 

I should note that personally, I feel we should sport strong challengers to try to attain the big 60, then work on electing better US Senators.  Until we have 60, I feel that Republicans have too much power in the Senate. 

As most people know, going from state/local politics to national politics is a big leap on different issues, so time will tell where Chavez stands, although he has been mayor of Albequerque for awhile, and has amassed some sense of principles on general issues. 

Also, it is noteworthy that Albequerque is the heart of Heather Wilson’s Congressional District, which is seen as the base for her Senate race. 

When Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House, decided to enter the Democratic primary to take on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith at the end of July, the only announced candidate, Steve Novick, didn’t raise a fuss.  In fact, his cordial response set what appeared to be a friendly tone for the primary campaign in the months ahead:

I commend Jeff’s decision to follow me in taking on Gordon Smith. […]

I look forward to an inspired primary where each of us makes our case for why we must replace Gordon Smith and presents our respective visions for Oregon and America. And I propose a series of joint appearances across the state with Jeff and any other candidates that enter the primary to let voters make up their minds.

[…] Over the next ten months, I plan to travel the state – listening to voters’ concerns and sharing my vision. It would be my great pleasure to have Jeff join me in that journey.

However, despite Novick’s proposal for a primary campaign with the heat directed entirely at Gordon Smith, it sure appears that Novick is spending a great deal of time launching unprovoked barbs at Merkley.  One of the first signs came in late August, when Novick found himself reading similar talking points as the state GOP to portray Merkley as a candidate who has flip-flopped on the Iraq War–something that isn’t true–because of a non-binding resolution passed by the Oregon House in 2003 that Merkley voted for in order to express solidarity with the troops.  Remarks that Merkley made on the House floor clearly corroborate Merkley’s claim that he was opposed to the war since the beginning.

Next up, Novick slammed Merkley as the “insider’s candidate” in a message sent to his online supporters after a recent fundraising push:

And yes, if you’re wondering, we outdid our opponent in the Democratic primary in online fundraising this week. The insiders’ candidate sent out the same kind of last-week appeal that we did – to an email list that seems to include everybody in the state – and you smoked ’em. Oh, we’re sure he got lots of big checks this quarter; that’s what insider candidates do. But in online last-week enthusiasm, you rocked him hard.

Huh.  And here I thought his campaign was about “rocking Smith hard”.  My mistake.

But wait, it gets better!  Both candidates recently announced their third quarter fundraising totals.  Merkley outraised Novick by a $294K to $125K margin.  While not extremely strong numbers for Merkley, he did begin his campaign at the start of August, and therefore only had two months to raise funds for the quarter compared to Novick’s three.  Nevertheless, Novick’s campaign wasted no time in releasing the following statement to the press:

From Merkley’s campaign spokesman Russ Kelley: “People are really responding to Jeff’s message of opportunity and his solid record of accomplishment.”

Or are they? says Novick’s campaign manager Jake Weigler. Democratic Senate candidates in other states who, like Merkley, were recruited by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have posted much higher fund-raising totals.

“Merkley’s ‘surge’ did not succeed,” Weigler said. “These numbers show it’s going to be a highly competitive primary.”

Excuse me?  Merkley’s “surge”?  Certainly an interesting choice of words.

So what kind of primary campaign is Steve Novick running?

You tell me.

Ah, how the siren song of sixty senate seats serenades us. With “just” nine more seats in the upper chamber, Democrats can, in theory, exercise total control over the legislative agenda. Republicans will no longer be able to obstruct the progress the American people demand. And with a Democrat 1600 Pennsylvania and Nancy Pelosi guiding the People’s House with a firm hand, we will see the dawn of a new golden age for the Blue.

Hey, anything is possible, and nine seats certainly looks a lot more realistic, if still distant, today than it did a year ago. But here’s a new question: Have we just walked right smack into the next Republican talking-point scare tactic? Bob Novak, the Prince of Darkness, might have just tipped his hand in bringing up this tidbit:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), in his second term running the Senate Democratic campaign, publicly expresses doubt about picking up an additional nine seats to achieve a filibuster-free Senate. But he has been soliciting popular Democratic governors from Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming to run against incumbent Republican Senators from those “red” states – perhaps even to win the magic nine seats. The problem is that these governors do not relish running with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

At first I thought this was just a way for the Douchebag of Liberty to ding Schumer by setting up absurdly unrealistic expectations, and to perpetuate a largely baseless smear against Clinton. But one of my political mentors suggested that the fear of a filibuster-proof Senate might serve as a baseline defense, the ultimate desperation firewall, a means for the GOP to nationalize the elections in their favor. I think this view may be right.

Indeed, Chuck Schumer is no dummy – he didn’t raise the issue of a sixty-seat Dem majority himself. While liberal bloggers and even Beltway prognosticators have openly discussed this possibility for some time, Schumer only spoke on the topic because the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza broached it in an interview. But Novakula – who often serves as a mouthpiece for the conservative hive mind – looks like he’s trying to make an issue out of this.

On the other hand, Novak is as delusional as often as he is right. It may well be that hyping procedural arcana to stoke Fear of a Blue Planet is a bridge too far even for the GOP. After all, Republican attempts to thwart Democrats last year by invoking the specter of a Pelosi-led House did not seem all that successful. And it’s one thing to pin your hopes on people understanding what majorities mean – start jawing about this sixty-seat silliness and all but the savviest may well tune you out.

In any event, stay alert for this potential talking point. If you see any examples of Republicans flogging this, let us know.

Buried in Newsweek’s very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:

We’ve now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there’s a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell’s told me.

Full analysis at Campaign Diaries.

Otter plainly hints here at the possibility of more Republican seats opening up! But which could those be? At this point, few Senate watchers are expecting any, as most people on the retirement watch list have announced their intentions: John Warner and Chuck Hagel retired, and so did Pete Domenici who had been on this watch list since the beginning of the cycle. The reason his retirement caused such a surprise is that Domenici had started to raise money, leading to the assumption that he would run again.

The last senator who was facing persistent retirement rumors earlier in the year was Mississippi’s Cochran, but the conventional wisdom soon became that Cochran would run again (mostly because Cochran’s heir apparent, Rep. Pickering, announced he would leave Congress next year, which he presumably would not have done if Cochran had hinted at the possibility of the Senate seat opening up).

So who are those “few more” Republican who could still pull the plug on a re-election run? The first person that comes to mind, obviously, is Alaska’s Ted Stevens. Stevens is in the middle of an FBI investigation for alleged corruption, and the scandal has been picking up in recent weeks. Who knows what the investigation’s state will be a year from now. Stevens might even be indicted by then, which has got to worry Republicans who might be pressuring Stevens to step down.

This is the only obvious answer. Otter clearly used plural form, so who else remains? Could we have misjudged Cochran’s intentions? An open seat in Mississippi would be a huge opportunity for Democrats who have a strong candidate (Attorney General Moore). Two other faint possibilities are North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander. Both senators faced some rumors they might call it quits early this year, but speculation quieted down as all signs were pointing towards both of them preparing a new run.

Check out these recently updated Senate Rankings for a take on where those races rank for now, and how much open seats there could dramatically expand the playing field.

I have to admit, immediately after the 2006 election, I was worried that the ’08 Congressional races would be significantly more boring than the cycle we just saw.  I certainly never would have predicted there would be this many Senate races in play, for instance — and the number of House races to watch keeps on growing by the week.  I can’t wait for 2008, because it’s going to be a wild ride.

On another note, in addition to our usual open thread banter this week, why don’t we take a breather and discuss movies.  This being the Swing State Project, the question to ask, of course, is: what is your favorite political movie of all time?

I’m looking forward to reading your responses — and grabbing the popcorn.

UPDATE (David): Rep. Jo Ann Davis (VA-01) has died after a battle with cancer.

From the Albuquerque Journal:

I just learned from a source very close to Rep. Tom Udall that the Democratic congressman will NOT seek the U.S. Senate seat that Pete Domenici will vacate at the end of 2008.

The source tells me that Udall, after some serious soul-searching over the past 24 hours, has decided that he can do a better job for New Mexico in the U.S. House, where he has a coveted spot on the appropriations committee.

“It was not a decision that was made lightly,” the source told me. “He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House.”

I hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be saddled with a Marty Chavez candidacy.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

Republicans have finally found a candidate to challenge frosh Democrat Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s 2nd District: former Army captain Chris Minor, who is currently a Blackwater contractor working in Iraq, is taking the plunge in the R+4.3 district.

I won’t comment in detail on Blackwater, whose reputation has taken a beating since several of its contractors engaged in a trigger-happy shooting exchange with Iraqi soldiers and civilians several weeks ago.

I will, however, seriously question a guy who says this:

Minor said he would like to replace Pelosi with Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., “the pride and joy of the conservative movement.”

Pence “lives and breathes Christian values we all respect,” said Minor, a retired U.S. Army captain who continues serving in Iraq as an intelligence analyst for the State Department.

Mike Pence?  The same guy who described the Shorja market in Baghdad as “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime”?  I guess in Indiana, a normal market in the summertime is guarded by 100 soldiers in humvees, sharpshooters on the rooftops, attack helicopters circling overhead, and all incoming traffic blocked by military personnel.

Seriously: Mike Pence?  I shudder to imagine a House under his speakership.  It’s no wonder that someone who would like to follow in his footsteps would give a reality-challenged soundbite like this one:

“Our country’s at war right now,” said Minor, explaining why he is running. “Unfortunately, the majority of America has forgotten about why we’re there, who attacked us, how we were attacked, the nature of the attack.”

Minor said it is time for Americans to reawaken to the fact that “we are threatened” and that there is a scourge “that wants nothing more than to destroy us.”

Um, do you really want to have a conversation about the facts, Chris?  I’d love to hear his wild-eyed theory on how Saddam aided and abetted the 9/11 hijackers.  While we’re at it, someone should ask him if he agrees that Iraq resembles Indiana in the summertime.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-02

Hoo boy.  Jim Marshall is not my kind of Democrat, but this isn’t exactly the kind of primary challenge I could get behind:

Macon Mayor C. Jack Ellis declared today he is running for congress in Georgia’s 8th district against incumbent Jim Marshall. Ellis says he is forming an exploratory committee, and will travel the district seeking citizen input.

Ellis has long hinted at his desire for higher office, with talk of a congressional run going back more than a year.

Ellis was elected Macon’s first black mayor in 1999, on his second try, with significant white support. His hope, and that of his supporters then, was to bring the city together. Instead, many observers say he’s divided it with provocative moves – trips to Africa at taxpayer expense, a December conversion to Islam, and a letter lauding Venezuela’s anti-American president.

He has also survived recall efforts, constant bickering with the City Council and repeated federal grand jury investigations into public spending.

More here.

(H/T: Tondee’s Tavern)

Race Tracker: GA-08