Month: November 2007

Click Column Headers to Sort

State	Filing Deadline	Primary	Run-Off
Alabama	04/04/08	06/03/08	07/15/08
Alaska	06/02/08	08/26/08
Arizona	06/04/08	09/02/08
Arkansas	03/10/08	05/20/08	06/10/08
California	03/07/08	06/03/08
Colorado	05/29/08	08/12/08
Connecticut †	05/24/08	08/12/08
Delaware	07/25/08	09/09/08
Florida	05/02/08	08/26/08
Georgia	05/02/08	07/15/08	08/05/08
Hawaii	07/22/08	09/20/08
Idaho	03/21/08	05/27/08
Illinois	11/05/07	02/05/08
Indiana	02/22/08	05/06/08
Iowa	03/14/08	06/03/08
Kansas	06/10/08	08/05/08
Kentucky	01/29/08	05/20/08
Louisiana *	07/11/08	10/04/08	11/04/08
Maine	03/15/08	06/10/08
Maryland	12/03/07	02/12/08
Massachusetts	06/03/08	09/16/08
Michigan	05/13/08	08/05/08
Minnesota ‡	07/15/08	09/09/08
Mississippi	01/11/08	03/11/08	04/01/08
Missouri	03/25/08	08/05/08
Montana	03/20/08	06/03/08
Nebraska	03/03/08	05/13/08
Nevada	05/16/08	08/12/08
New Hampshire	06/13/08	09/09/08
New Jersey	04/07/08	06/03/08
New Mexico	02/12/08	06/03/08
New York	07/10/08	09/09/08
North Carolina	02/29/08	05/06/08	06/24/08
North Dakota	04/11/08	06/10/08
Ohio	01/04/08	03/04/08
Oklahoma	06/04/08	07/29/08	08/26/08
Oregon	03/11/08	05/20/08
Pennsylvania	02/12/08	04/22/08
Rhode Island	06/25/08	09/09/08
South Carolina	03/31/08	06/10/08	06/24/08
South Dakota	03/25/08	06/03/08	06/17/08
Tennessee	04/03/08	08/07/08
Texas	01/02/08	03/04/08	04/08/08
Utah	03/17/08	06/24/08
Vermont	07/21/08	09/09/08
Virginia §	04/11/08	06/10/08
Washington	06/06/08	08/19/08
West Virginia	01/26/08	05/13/08
Wisconsin	07/08/08	09/09/08
Wyoming	05/30/08	08/19/08

† Connecticut’s filing deadline is fourteen days after state party conventions are held. The Democratic convention was held on May 10, 2008. The Connecticut Republican Party did not hold a statewide convention this year, but did hold individual congressional district conventions, also on May 10, 2008.

‡ Minnesota Democrats held individual congressional district conventions throughout April and May and held a state convention June 6-8, 2008. Traditionally, the party endorses candidates at these conventions. These endorsees become all-but-official nominees, usually rendering the primary a mere formality.

§ The Virginia Republican Party chose to nominate its Senate candidate via convention rather than via primary election.

* Due to Hurricane Gustav, Louisiana moved its primary from Sept. 6, 2008 to Oct. 4, 2008. Run-offs for LA-02 and LA-04 will be held on Nov. 4th and the general election for those races will be held on Dec. 6th. All other races will conduct normal general elections on Nov. 4th.

Note: Sorting by runoff date is not available.

Source: FEC.gov (PDF) (p. 3-4).

From the latest edition of the Almanac of American Politics comes a list of the fastest and slowest-growing Congressional districts in the nation. Keep the following districts and states in mind as we lead up to another round of redistricting in a few years.

Fastest and Slowest-Growing Congressional Districts, 2000-2005

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Growth	District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Growth
AZ-06	Flake	R	R+12.2	36%	OH-11	Tubbs-Jones	D	D+33.1	-9%
AZ-02	Franks	R	R+8.7	34%	MI-13	Kilpatrick	D	D+32.2	-8%
NV-03	Porter	R	D+1.0	32%	IL-09	Schakowsky	D	D+19.7	-8%
FL-05	Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1	27%	PA-14	Doyle	D	D+21.9	-7%
CA-44	Calvert	R	R+6.0	24%	PA-02	Fattah	D	D+39.2	-7%
TX-10	McCaul	R	R+13.0	23%	NY-28	Slaughter	D	D+14.6	-7%
TX-22	Lampson	D	R+14.5	23%	MI-14	Conyers	D	D+33.4	-7%
TX-03	Johnson	R	R+17.1	22%	IL-05	Emanuel	D	D+17.8	-5%
CA-45	Bono	R	R+3.2	22%	CA-08	Pelosi	D	D+36.1	-5%
FL-14	Mack	R	R+10.5	22%	IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	-5%
VA-10	Wolf	R	R+5.3	21%	MA-08	Capuano	D	D+33.0	-5%
FL-25	M. Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4	21%	OH-01	Chabot	R	R+0.5	-5%
CA-11	McNerney	D	R+3.0	20%	CA-53	S. Davis	D	D+12.5	-4%
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	20%	NY-12	Velazquez	D	D+33.9	-4%
FL-07	Mica	R	R+4.1	20%	IL-07	D. Davis	D	D+34.9	-4%
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	19%	SC-06	Clyburn	D	D+11.2	-4%
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10.0	18%	MO-01	Clay	D	D+25.6	-4%
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	18%	MN-05	Ellison	D	D+21.5	-4%
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	18%	AL-07	A. Davis	D	D+16.9	-4%
CA-03	Lungren	R	R+6.7	18%	DC-AL	Holmes-Norton	D	D+40	-4%

(Source: House Race Hotline)

I left a district blank here because it seems that the Hotline made a transcription error — they list CA-12 as one of the slowest-growing CDs, but the incumbent’s name is displayed as Nydia Velazquez (D). The only problem: Nydia represents a district on the other coast, NY-12. Tom Lantos (D), represents CA-12. So I’m not sure which district they meant to place in that slot. UPDATE (David): The House Race Hotline informs us that the correct district is NY-12.

A simplistic analysis of this chart might walk away with the impression that GOP strength is expanding, while Dem-heavy populations in urban districts are shrinking. But the effect of these changes will be determined by whoever is redrawing the district lines. Some of these burgeoning red districts could be made more geographically condensed.

It might also be worth noting that several of the fast-growing red districts bucked the national trend gave a greater share of their vote to John Kerry in 2004 than they did to Al Gore in 2000 (adjusted for ’02 redistricting): TX-03, TX-10, TX-22, VA-10, CO-06, and IL-14.

SSP has quite a few readers with a great deal of knowledge about the redistricting process. I wouldn’t mind hearing your thoughts on this data.

These are the words of the great rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel.

And it is these words, and this man, that have inspired rabbi Dennis Shulman (D) to challenge conservative extremist Scott Garrett (R) in NJ-5 this 2008.

Like his spiritual forefather, Shulman has concluded that he can no longer speak about God and remain silent on Iraq, as well as many of the other pressing and important issues of our times.

To learn more about Dr. Shulman, who is also a practicing psychologist, check out this recent New York Sun profile: Shulman Aims To Be First Blind Rabbi in Congress

Well 3 more districts now have candidates:
CO-06 – R+10,
IL-15 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,

And candidate filing season has started with Illinois filings which closed with us filling all 19 races a great start.

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

354 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 121 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 121
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 55

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
KY-02 – R+12.9,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-21 – R+6,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,
VA-02 – R+5.9,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-25 – R+4,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 12 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, VA-06, and WI-06; 5 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Heath Haussamen, who by now should be a household name among political junkies, again has the goods on Don Wiviott, a developer who had been running a longshot bid for Senate for a good portion of the year:

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

“You have to have the courage of your convictions. That’s why I started in this. That’s why I remain in it,” Wiviott said. “I’m committed to either raise or spend whatever it takes to win (the House race).”

Wiviott will be joining a potentially crowded field for the nomination for the Dem-leaning seat.  Other names mentioned as possible candidates include Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya, Sheriff Greg Solano, State Auditor Hector Balderas, ex-state Rep. Patsy Trujillo, Espanola Mayor Joseph Maestas, state Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, and New Mexico Highlands Regent Javier Gonzales.

That’s a long list of possibilities.  Whatever the case, the next nominee for this D+5.5 district should be suitably progressive.  While I was never convinced that Wiviott, a political neophyte, had the necessary gravitas for the Senate race, he’ll deserve a long look — along with the other candidates — for the House nomination.

Race Tracker: NM-03

Virginia Democrats have nominated Phil Forgit, a navy vet and a guy who ran a close race for the House of Delegates in a very conservative district back in 2003, as their candidate for the Dec. 12 special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R).

On the GOP side, the second ballot results are in, and so far businessman Paul Jost, the chairman of the VA Club For Growth and an ally of ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), is leading the field:

SECOND BALLOTING FINISHED:

1) Paul Jost got 126.51 votes
2) Sherwood Bowditch got 105.43 votes.
3) Chuck Davis got 85.30 votes.
4) Delegate Rob Whitman got 82.55 votes.
5) Jim Bowden got 62 votes.
6) Delegate Dick Black got 59 votes.
7) David Caprara got 37 votes. (DROPPED OUT AND ENDORSED DAVIS)

The Shad Plank is keeping up to the minute tabs on all the GOP action.  I’m not too familiar with Jost, but given his deep ties with the Club For Growth, I’ll be very intrigued by this race should he be the nominee.

Update: According to Raising Kaine, Republicans have nominated Delegate Rob Wittman.  Should Wittman win the special election in December, perhaps former Delegate Al Pollard (D), who recently lost a very close race for the state Senate, might be compelled to run for his old seat in the Virginia House.

From the Associated Press:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall has decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici, according to an aide.

“He’s definitely running,” Tom Nagle, Udall’s chief of staff told The Associated Press. […]

Udall initially had said he would stay in the House, where he is a member of the Appropriations Committee.

But he reconsidered after a “groundswell” of encouragement from New Mexicans, Nagle said.

“He thinks it’s too important not to run for the Senate,” Nagle said. “A lot of the good things we’ve been able to do (in the House) don’t go anywhere in the Senate.”

Nagle said there has been criticism that Udall is “too liberal” for the seat but he disputed that, saying “the rhetoric doesn’t match the reality of what the data show.”

He said internal campaign polling of likely voters conducted for Udall at the end of October showed the congressman with a considerable lead over either Wilson or Pearce, including among self-described moderates.

Sweet!

Update: Check out the details of an internal poll conducted for Udall by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (10/23-10/27, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 52%
Heather Wilson (R): 36%
Undecided: 12%

Tom Udall (D): 50%
Steve Pearce (R): 33%
Undecided: 17%

Martin Chávez (D): 47%
Heather Wilson (R): 43%
Undecided: 10%

Martin Chávez (D): 40%
Steve Pearce (R): 44%
Undecided: 16%
MoE: ±4.3%

The Chávez numbers seem to jive with the most recent polling from SUSA, and the 17 and 18 point leads that Udall enjoys over Pearce and Wilson match up well with the R2K polling for DailyKos.  In short: the poll is good.

Udall starts off in a position of strength in the primary, capturing a solid 50% of Democratic primary voters:

Tom Udall: 50%
Martin Chávez: 30%
Don Wiviott: 2%
Undecided: 17%
MoE: +/-4.6%

Mayor Marty’s ego is clearly stung, hence his unwarranted attacks on Udall’s voting record (the very same voting record that Chávez said he would emulate in a chat with local progressive bloggers).  This primary will be as ugly as he wants it to be, but his extremely high negatives — confirmed by both Udall’s and SUSA’s polling — indicate that this will be a likely loss for the Mayor.  A nickel’s worth of free advice to Martin: bow out gracefully.

With the mini-flurry of GOP retirements on Friday by Jim Saxton and Babs Cubin, now is as good a time as any to take stock of the open seat situation in the House. There’s been quite a lot of movement since our last installment in October, with the retirements of GOP Reps. Regula, Hobson, Tancredo, and of course Saxton and Cubin. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is joining Heather Wilson in the New Mexico Senate race, opening up both their seats in the House. It also appears that Rep. Tom Udall (D) will join them in the Senate race. In a rare Democratic announcement, we saw the decision of New York Rep. Mike McNulty (D) to retire for health reasons.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Retiring
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Retiring
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Running for President
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
NM-02	Pearce	R	R+5.7	61	Running for Senate
NM-03	Udall	D	D+5.5	60	Running for Senate
NY-21	McNulty	D	D+8.7	61	Retiring
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Retiring
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Retiring

That adds up to a whopping 16 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2005, there were only 12 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. And there is still plenty of time left on the clock for more announcements, possibly from some of the folks listed below…

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
GA-10	Broun	R	R+12.7	61	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Mulling retirement

One deletion from this list was Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA), whose campaign manager e-mailed us the following statement:

It was brought to my attention by our DC staff that you have the Congressman listed as a potential retirement. As the Congressman’s Campaign Manager I can assure you that Congressman McKeon is definitely running for reelection to the 25th CD in California.

Couldn’t be much clearer than that.

Any other retirement rumors flowing through your tubes?

UPDATE: I bet Tom Davis is the next in line to retire. From the WaPo:

He probably won’t run for reelection unless he concludes it is a path to the Senate in 2012, say his associates.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far away, Jerome Armstrong called for a goal of Democrats putting up 80 House Challengers a cycle:
http://www.mydd.com/…
With the Democratic take over the House and a net gain of 30 seats, the number of seats available to challenge has shrunk, however. I believe we can still try to get to 80 Districts that can and should be challenged. What is more is that this is symbolic because it places more than a third of the House Republicans in jeopardy and limits there purely safe members to a grow not large enough to sustain a veto.
  More House seats is important if we wish to see the type of agenda we all want passed, We need both more seats and the political momentum that comes with the perceived mandate. Fortunately we are already blessed with roughly 60 very qualified House Candidates.
Over the Jump, I break down the Four Categories of Republican House Members and their relative number and list the challengers in each category. I will also then break down what the conventional wisdom is currently saying about House Races and where it is important we get out in front of conventional wisdom.

Base Republican Districts, 60+ for the President 110 Republicans Seats  [12 Dems hold seats this Republican]
  Dems currently challenging [10-15]
]
This is by far the largest cohort of Republican Members of Congress Representing 110 of 200 Republicans in Congress.  Of the Seats Democrats gained in 2006 only Three came from District this Republican and in each case it was Republican either incompetence or malfeasance, [The Hostletter, Sherwood and Delay seats] That allowed Democrats to win.  Democrats do currently hold 12 seats this Republican but these are often personally popular incumbents and holdovers. While any seat this Republican held is a bonus it is simply not the future of the Democratic Party 
  This does not mean we have no challengers at this level, indeed, to get to 80 we need to challenge seats this Republican. We are currently looking at  roughly 10 or so competitive races to challenge Republicans almost because the seat is open or bizarre Republican Behavior, though in some case it is just week Republican Performance. These are the 10 Districts so far were the likely Democratic Nominee has at least some chance at victory. Just threatening here is important so as to prevent the 60+ cut off from seeming defenseless but these races have to be watched very carefully because the Democrats we elect from such districts are not likely to be very progressive. 

Open Seats in this Category
WY AL MS 3 AL 2 CO 6 CA 52

Candidates Starting with Open Seats

  Here are the Ten most likely deep red switch with the name and website of our most likely challenger.

CA 4
Charlie Brown: http://www.charliebr…

CA 41
Tim Price: http://www.timprince…

CA 42
Ron Shepston: http://www.ronshepst…

CA 52
Ron Lumpkin: http://lumpkinforcon…

AK AL
Ethan Berkowtiz: http://ethanberkowit…

OH 2
Vic Wulsin: http://www.wulsinfor…

  IN 3
Michael Montagano: http://www.montagano…

  ID 1
Larry Grant: http://www.grantforc…

KY 2
David Boswell: http://www.kysenated…

MD 1
Frank Kratovil: http://frankkratovil…

Lean Republican Seats, Bush 56-59  43 Seats [15 Dems]
Dems Challenging[ 15-20]
These Seats have significant built in Republican advantages, however as one can see Democrats hold  more than a fourth of such seats. This mean Democrats can win here, but again, the Democrats elected from such District trend to the right. Democrats gained only six of these in 2006. This means that more than 2/3 of the newly elected Democrats come from more Democratic Districts.  We need to compete here, but again primarily to keep them off balance.  We have 16 challengers so far, with open seats first listed below.

  Open Seats in This Catergory
IL 18 NM 2 OH 7

Candidates Starting with Open Seats
IL 18
Dick Versace: http://www.dickversa…

NM 2
Bill McCamley http://www.billmccam…

OH 7
  Dave Woolever http://www.daveforoh…

AZ 3
Bob Lord: http://www.lord2008….

CA 44
Bill Hedrick: http://www.hedrickfo…

CO 4
Betsy Markey: http://betsymarkey.c…

FL 9
John Dicks: http://www.johndicks…

FL 13
Christine Jennings: http://www.christine…

MT AL
Bill Kennedy: http://www.kennedy20…

MO 6
Kay Barnes http://www.kay4congr…

MN 6
Elewyn Tinkelberg: http://www.tinklenbe…

NJ 4
Josh Zeitz: Website coming 

NJ 5
Dennis Shulman:  http://www.shulmanfo…

NY 29
Erica Massa: http://www.massaforc…

VA 5
Tom Perriello: http://www.perriello…

WV 2
John Unger: http://www.ungerforc…

Marginal Bush 54-55 21 Republican held Seats  [13 Dem Held Seats]
Dems Currently Challenging [12-16]

This is actually a relatively small group, as the number of districts of this make up is small. In all  21 Republican call this home.  Republican lost 7 seats of these seats in 06. These Seats can be just as useful as seats with lower GOP Density.

Open Seats in this Category
AZ 1, OH 16 IL 14

Challengers listed with open seats first

  AZ 1

Ann Kirkpatrick http://www.kirkpatri…

OH 16
John Boccieri: http://johnforcongre…

IL 14
Bill Foster: http://foster08.com/…

CA 26
Russ Warner http://www.warnerfor…

FL 8
Charlie Stuart: http://www.charliest…

FL 24
Suzanne Kosmas: http://kosmasforcong…

Il 16
Robert Abboud: http://www.robertabb…

MI 7
Mark Shauer: http://www.markschau…

New York 13
Two Candidates

New York 26
Jon Powers:  http://www.powersfor…

Pennsylvania 18
Many Candidates

Minnesota 2
Steve Sarvi:  http://www.stevesarv…

North Carolina 8
Larry Kissell: http://www.larrykiss…

Virginia 10
Judy Feder: http://judyfeder.com…

Swing Bush 53 and under 28 seats Kerry Won Bush Seats 8, all Kerry Plus 54+ seats held by Dems.
  [ Bush won, but 53 or under for Dems  19]
Dems  Currently Challenging[20-28] 

There are only 28 such seats still in Republicans hands, as this where Republican took a near merciless beating, and in fact of the 28 seats they did hold only X held with more than 55%.  These 28 seats represent golden chances for Democrats to win in 2008. In 2006 Democrats gained 14 or nearly half their overall gains from this type of district and the going is just getting good.  The candidates and open seats listed bellow.

Open Seats in Category.
NM 1 OH 15 NJ 3 IL 11 MN 3

Candidates starting with Open Seats

New Mexico 1
Martin Heinrich: http://martinheinric…

Ohio 15
Mary Jo Kilroy: http://www.kilroyfor…

New Jersey 3
John Adler: http://www.adlerforc…

Illinois 11
Debbie Halvorson: http://www.debbiehal…

Minnesota 3
Terri Bonoff: http://www.terribono…

Connecticut 4
Jim Himes: http://www.himesforc…

New York 25
Dan Maffei: http://www.maffeifor…

Illinois 6
Jill Morgenthaler: http://www.jillmorge…

Illinois 10
Dan Seals: http://www.dansealsf…

Jay Footlik: http://jayfootlik.co…

Washington 8
Darcy Burner: http://www.darcyburn…

Michigan 9
Gary Peters: http://www.petersfor…

Ohio 1
Steve Dreihaus: http://www.driehaus2…

Ohio 14
  Bill O’Neil: http://oneill08.com/

Pennsylvania 3
Many Candidates

Nevada 3
Robert Daskas

New Jersey 7
Linda Stender: http://www.lindasten…

Pennsylvania 15
Sam Bennett: http://www.bennett20…

Races in Flux
VA 11, FL 10 

Conclusion
  Currently as one who can do the math can see, Democrats are running strong challenges in 57 of the 80 seats where Democrats are looking to challenge. There are also some 60 or so other challengers who vary in strength, who could become strong with the proper encouragement. That and the rumor of strong challengers alone should get us up to 65-70 challengers, the last ten will ultimately be up to us to find, as well as making sure the bottom 40 are given enough support to feel as if they are in the game, because Conventional Wisdom would say they are not. We need to understand and then attack this conventional wisdom. 

  Challenging Conventional Wisdom

The Cook and CQ political report will stand in for what amounts to the conventional wisdom. I will include their official predictions at the end of the list.  In total, they list
46 Republican Seats list as potentially Republican Vulnerabilities. However, I believe that we are closer already to 80 then they are to 46.  Already, Democrats have two challenger who have raised 200K,  Russ Warner http://www.warnerfor…
and Judy Feder http://judyfeder.com…. Who are not considered viable challengers and Tom Davis is not considered at all vulnerable, which will obviously change. However.  The key level of increased vulnerability however currently comes from under or unchallenged marginals. Of the 49 seats that fall into the marginal and swing categories, Democrats based on the list above are challenging in only 31 of 49 seats or currently leaving 18 races either under targeted, or unchallenged.  Now obviously the Tom Davis seat appears to be fixed. But that still leaves seventeen under targeted marginal seats.  If we are to successfully get to 80 challengers, it is these seats we need to look into.  Before, I press on with where we are not running strong enough candidates, it is important to give notice to the five strong challengers who have emerged, but are not yet on the conventional watch lists. The success of their campaigns will be give to giving nightmares to Republicans in the House.

CA 26
Russ Warner

MN 2
Steve Sarvi
http://www.stevesarv…

VA 5
Tom Perrillo
http://www.perriello…

VA 10
Judy Feder 
http://judyfeder.com…

IL 16
Robert Abboud
http://www.robertabb…

The 17 undertargeted marginal seats
We are looking at currently 17 undertargeted races, seven of which come the listed above marginal category and 10 of which come from the Swing district category.  The first one which goes in its own sort of box is FL 10, where Congressman Young appears somewhat likely to retire netting us a near certain high quality candidate and no problems. If not we still need to challenge hard here.  But for the moment we can dispense with it. That leaves us now 16. Which we divide up into their two respective categories

Seven under-loved madrigals.
  In these races we are currently looking at three challengers needing strengthening and four totally unopposed races. First the candidates,
In IL 13  Scott Harper http://www.scottharp… the Democratic candidate to challenge Judy Biggert. This is a done deal as Illinois filling deadline has closed.  Mr. Harper seems like a decent enough candidate but I will need to see more fundraising before I can be confident he can take this race all the way.
Wisconsin 1, has three sort of all relative decent candidates, however lurking is the perennial candidate who always gets the nomination but never does any real work. We need him to be defeated this time, and then coalesce around the nominee in a big way. Finally is CA 50, which I admit just might be me.  I am just not thrilled with Nick Leibham, http://www.nickleibh…. He has raised some money and I might just be wrong, but I just doubt very highly he can actually given Brian Bilbray a race
This leaves Four Seats
FL 18,  OH 3 and MI 4,8 currently challenger less. Leaving these races completely open is wrong as not only are they possible pickups but all of them are in key Presidential states.

9 under loved swing districts
  In these six districts we are looking at nine districts were Democrats have not yet gotten a prime recruit. In only one of these districts does a Democratic Challenger have?
A website at that is Jerry Northington in DE AL http://www.northingt…. He might be a good enough guy, but seems to lack the voltage for what is a statewide race.  Other that the remaining 8 districts,
IA 4 NY 3,23, PA 6, MI 6,11 OH 12, all seem to lack challengers or have very poorly defined challengers.  It is imperative that we nail down challengers of a certain quality for these races.

Conclusion
  If Democrats can add real races in these 17 districts to the challengers already in position in the 57 other districts. We will be just six races short of 80 challengers, and we looking over some of the other challengers already filled, it is possible we are already there.  This is in short a map to 80 challengers and a huge gain in the House. We just need to be diligent about following, particularly once we have our Presidential Nominee.

The Conventional Wisdom House Race lists.

COOK  [40]

Toss up
AZ 1
Il 11
MN 3
NM 1
OH 15
OH 16

Lean
AK AL
CA 4
CO 4
CT 4
IL 10
MI 7
NV 3
NJ 7
NY 25
NY 29
NC 8
OH 1
PA 6
WA 8
WY AL

Likely
CA 50
FL 8
FL 13
FL 24
IL 6
IL 14
IL 18
MI 9
MN 6
MO 6
NJ 3
NM 2
NY 13
OH 2
OH 14
PA 3
PA 15
PA 18
VA 2

CQ [44]

Toss up
AZ 1
CA 4
IL 11
MN 3
NC 8
OH 15

Lean Republican
AK AL
CO 4
CT 4
FL 13
Il 10
Il 14
MI 7
MI 9
MO 6
NV 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 25
NY 29
OH 1
OH 2
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
WA 8
WV 2
WY AL

Likely Republican
AZ 3
FL 8
FL 15
FL 24
ID 1
Il 6
Il 18
MN 6
MT AL
NV 2
NJ 3
NY 26
OH 14
PA 15
PA 18
VA 2

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Never a dull moment, huh?  What a week it’s been: the ousting of the supreme crumb-bum Ernie Fletcher in Kentucky, chamber pick-ups in Virginia and Mississippi, a Republican “wunderkind” exposed as being out of his league and out of his mind in Illinois, a couple more SCHIP-hating Republicans retire from the House (making that 16 GOPers and counting), and last but not least: word that Rep. Tom Udall will run for Senate.

How did the week treat you?