Month: November 2007

We’ve just confirmed the veracity of  this poll, which was conducted between Sept. 18 and 24 by Penn, Schoen, Berland Associates.  The poll shows conservative Democrat Dan Lipinski vulnerable to a primary challenge.  Here are the excerpts from Archpundit (likely primary voters):

Lipinski Re-elect: 35%
Generic Congressional Approval: 37%
±5%

82%: Less likely to vote for Lipinski on the issue of choice once they learn that he opposes a woman’s right to choose and supports criminalizing abortion even in cases of rape or incest

83%: Less likely they would vote for Lipinski after they learned that he voted for the Bush energy proposal and voted to allow drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge

76%: Favor a mandate calling for a pull-out of troops from Iraq beginning immediately with all troops out within a year as well as a cap on war funding to ensure the Bush Administration meets that goal

17%: Favor a proposal calling for a complete pullout within five years and no cap on funding.

Dan Lipinski has been one of the most out-of-touch Democrats in the House, consistently voting as if he were in a conservative area while representing a Chicago district with a PVI of D+10.  With a credible primary challenger in the race — progressive attorney Mark Pera — Lipinski is roaming in very perilous territory right now.

You can view a copy of the polling memo here.

While there is no shortage of potential Republican candidates to vie for the open seat being left behind by retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-NJ), it looks like the GOP’s top three choices have all taken a whiff of the race and said “no”.

GOP wunderkind Tom Kean, Jr. was the first to pull his name from contention last night.  A known name statewide who gave Bob Menendez a competitive race last year, Kean could have been a good recruit here.

Next to pass is state Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick, also considered a strong contender.  In a conversation with PolitickerNJ.com, Bramnick implied that the rough national environment for Republicans was the deciding factor:

“There’s a big difference between federal and state politics. In Trenton, Democrats had a chance to govern and they did not do well. In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War,” Bramnick told PolitickerNJ.com.

The third top challenger to pass on the race?  Former Rep. Bob Franks, who held the seat for four terms before he took on Jon Corzine (and barely lost) in the 2000 Senate race.  Franks has “no desire” to run again right now.

Which GOP pretender will be next to smell the glove? Stay tuned!

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Another SurveyUSA poll was released, and this time, they included primaries in their polling.  Not only that, they polled an amazing 1700+ people, resulting in some ridiculously-low MOEs (below three percent).  So these are some pretty accurate polls.  enough jibber-jabber, let’s get straight to the numbers.

In the Republican primary, Heather Wilson is surprisingly strong and is trouncing Steve Pearce, 56-37.  Yes, you read that correctly, Wilson is already twenty points ahead of her Southern NM counterpart, with only four percent undecided.

In the Democratic primary, Tom Udall is similarly ahead of Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez, by a 62-32 margin.  This is even larger than the internal poll released by Udall, which showed Udall ahead of Chavez by a 50-30. Since then, Santa Fe small businessman and green-developer Don Wiviott has dropped out of the Senate race to pursue Udalls now-open House seat.

In the general, Udall is still looking strong, though the gap has begun to close a bit between Udall and his Republican opponents. Chavez, however, continues to bounce around the polls.

Trendlines from polls taken [10/27-10/30] and (10/05-10/08).

Pearce (R) 40% [–] (37)
Udall (D) 54%  [–] (55)
Undecided 5% [–]

Pearce (R) 52% [43] (54) 
Chavez (D) 42% [48] (35)
Undecided 7% [9]  (9)

Wilson (R) 41% [–] (38)
Udall (D) 56%  [–] (56)
Undecided 3% [–]

Wilson (R) 47% [44] (48) 
Chavez (D) 46% [48] (44)
Undecided 7% [8] (8)

Where Udall really distinguishes himself is among the self-described moderates and liberals.

Against Pearce, Chavez garners the support of just 4 percent of moderates and 68 percent of liberals.  Compare this to Udall, who has the support of 63 percent of moderates and 85 percent of liberals.  This is a shocking disparity for Chavez, showing that liberal Democrats really, really do not like Chavez.

The same can be seen against Heather Wilson.  Chavez has the support of just 51 percent of moderates and a better 73 percent of liberals. But Udall eclipses both of those numbers, with 66 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals. 

Similar numbers can be seen among party identification, with Udall doing better among both Democrats and Independents than Chavez.  And, it goes without saying, Udall does better than either Wilson or Pearce in these categories as well.  Among Independents, the only match-up where the Republican does better is Pearce vs Chavez.

The polls were taken 11/16/07 through 11/18/07 by SurveyUSA.

Cross-posted from Flapolitics.com
http://www.flapoliti…

Here are my rankings with explanations for November.

1. FL-08 (R+3), Incumbent Ric Keller

Keller is facing flak over his flip-flopping and parsing on Iraq. He’s also been criticized for flip-flopping on his term limits promise. Keller voted against Stem Cell Research, voted against SCHIP and children’s health care, against negotiation of prescription drugs, and has voted in lockstep with Republicans on a host of issues taking our liberties away. These terrible votes aren’t the only thing making Keller the most vulnerable Republican in Florida. The district has only a slight tilt to Republicans and has been leaning more toward Democrats in recent years. Unions have also launched ads as part of a $1.5 million campaign against Keller for his anti-children’s health care vote.

Keller will face challengers from both parties in the race, undermining the criticism he has faced. On the Democratic side, Mike Smith and 2006 candidate Charlie Stuart, have both jumped into the race. Whoever wins our primary is going to have a great shot at victory in the 8th district.

2. FL-24 (R+3) Incumbent Tom Feeney

This is another district that has been leaning more towards the Dems in recent years. It doesn’t hurt that Feeney has been absolutely crazy, including his calls to privatize Social Security. I mean this is the guy who walks around with a Conservative Score Card every day in his pocket. He’s been involved in scandal after scandal, including connections with convicted felon Jack Abramoff. Polls now show him under 50% support, in fact, at a low of 42% against Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas, with our candidate only having 19% name recognition. Speaking of our candidate, she’s a former state legislature and should be able to raise the money to compete. Feeney has also been the target of a $1.5 million ad campaign by Unions for his vote against SCHIP. Feeney is probably toast in 2008.

3. FL-15 (R+3) Incumbent Dave Weldon

Weldon kind of goes a long with Feeney. They are both out of their minds. I wonder how they were even elected, if people knew what they were getting at the time. Get this though, in 2006 Weldon faced an underfunded 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist in his reelection bid and won with only 56% of the vote. Now that says something. Prospects are looking bright for the future of this district. Darren Soto won a special election in a previously Republican-held house seat in Kississimee, which also takes in this US House district, earlier this year. The recent influx of Puerto Rican voters may help a Democrat win this seat. Unfortunately, there is no current high-profile Democratic challenger in the race. Steve Blythe is running, however, but it’s yet to be seen how his campaign will go. Personally, I would like someone who is going to be able to raise the funds necessary to win. We really need to get rid of Weldon.

4. FL-25 (R+4) Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart

Prospects also are looking brighter in this district. See here and here. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq to be the major issues of concern, not Cuba. Mario has straddled the hardline with the Bush Presidency. He’s continuously voted for more war and more surge. He’s voted against children’s health care and he’s voted against stem cell research. Currently, we have no challenger but the Draft Joe Garcia movement is off to a strong start. Should Joe get into the race, this would instantly become a very competitive race. Without a top-tier challenger, it would fall to less competitive.

5. FL-21 (R+6) Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart

This race is pretty much ditto the above except Raul Martinez is the potential candidate. This district also tilts a little more toward the Republicans than the 25th and probably hasn’t seen the recent growth like the 25th district that would favor the Dems.

6. FL-13 (R+4) Incumbent Vern Buchanan

Tempers still flare over the disputed 2006 election. I think that was probably our best chance of picking up the seat, but 2008 could offer a similar battle. Our candidate from last time, Christine Jennings, is running again and has already earned support from Emily’s List. The area has also seen a lot of growth and particularly that in Sarasota favors the Democrats, where we’ve picked up county seats recently. We have a good shot certainly of picking up this district, if the money is there for another run.

7. FL-18 (R+4) Incumbent Ros-Lehtinen

This race is similar to the other Miami districts. At the moment, however, there are no high-profile rumored Democratic candidates. If we can get a good candidate, then this race would be competivie.

8. FL-10 (D+1) Incumbent Bill Young

This race all depends on Bill Young retiring. If he retires, then this race instantly moves up to our #1 best pickup opportunity. If he doesn’t retire, then it’s probably over. For now, I’ll put this seat here until we hear more. As a note, State Senator Charlie Justice has been rumored to be running for the Democrats and he would be a formidable candidate.

9. FL-05 (R+5) Incumbent Brown-Waite

We still need a credible challenger. Either way it will be an uphill battle. Brown-Waite won 60% of the vote in 2006. She has faced the $1.5 million ad campaign though, targetted by Unions for her vote against children’s health care.

10. FL-09 (R+4) Gus Bilirakis

I just don’t see how we’re going to win this one, if we lost it in 2006 in an open race. Many candidates are lining up to take on the Republican incumbent, however, and the first reelection bid is always the most difficult, so we’ll see if we make this a good challenge.

All Others

FL-01, FL-04, FL-06, FL-07, FL-12, FL-14

We’re probably not going to win these, but it never hurts to try.

Overall, we still need candidates in FL-04, FL-06, FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25

I predict we will pick up 3 seats in 2008.

What are your rankings/predictions?

That was quick.  From PolitickerNJ.com:

Senate Minority Leader-designate Tom Kean, Jr. said today that he will not run for Congress in 2008:

“For the last seven years, Congressman Ferguson has been a dedicated public servant who has served the 7th Congressional District with honor and distinction as a strong advocate for a more secure homeland and lower taxes.

“I would like to thank the various party leaders, activists and supporters who have reached out to me and urged me to run for Congress. However, I will not be a candidate for Congressman Ferguson’s seat.”

Many viewed Tom Kean, Jr. as a formidable GOP candidate for the seat.  He probably would’ve been.  But, the GOP bench in this district is pretty deep and they could end up with a monster primary.

Some possible candidates, as identified by Dale Florio, the chairman of the Somerset County Republican Party:

Florio’s short list includes former U.S. Rep. Bob Franks, Assemblyman Pete Biondi, Freeholder Jack Ciatterelli, Warren Township Mayor Victor Sordillo, and Bedminister Councilman Finn Caspersen. He said he had not yet heard from Sen.-Elect Kip Bateman, who is out of the country.

Other names include former Hillsborough Deputy Mayor Chris Venis (no jokes please), who announced his bid earlier today, NJ Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance, and Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks.

While the GOP sorts itself out, Democrats are uniting behind state Rep. Linda Stender, who nearly upset Ferguson in 2006:

NJ Democratic party chairman Joe Cryan:

“I also want to strongly reaffirm the confidence Democrats have in Linda Stender and her ability to defeat any Republican who replaces Mr Ferguson on the ballot. She is the right candidate for the Democratic Party and the right person to represent the people of the 7th Congressional District.

EMILY’s List was also quick to pounce on the news of Ferguson’s retirement, and came out with an endorsement of Stender.  Their endorsement carries a lot of fundraising heft, giving any potential primary challengers serious pause.

That’s the word from the Stockton Record’s political reporter, Hank Shaw:

I reported last week that former state Sen. Rico Oller of Calaveras County was standing with embattled U.S. Rep. John Doolittle, R-Roseville, at a GOP event. I also mentioned in that piece that Rico (who lost a nasty Republican primary contest to now-Rep. Dan Lungren in 2004) was being talked about as a possible successor to Doolittle, but that Oller wouldn’t jump in without Doolittle’s blessing.

That appears likely to happen soon. I am hearing from my Sacramento Valley friends that John Doolittle is about to step down and will ultimately endorse Rico Oller, who apparently owns lots of property in Doolittle’s 4th District. Oller would still have to get past Assemblyman Ted Gaines of Roseville and Eric Egland of Rocklin. Rico is definitely conservative, and if he has the blessing of the NorCal GOP machine that Doolittle has created, he should immediately become the favorite in that primary.

UPDATE: Jeff Flint over at Red County Placer cross-posted this item over there, and brought up a good point: The word I am hearing is NOT that Doolittle will step down, it’s that he won’t run again.

This is a deep red Bush district with a PVI of R+10.9.  Without the scandal-plagued Doolittle to run against, this race would become an uphill climb and fast.  However, if this Rico Oller character gets the nod, perhaps he might turn into the second coming of Joy Padgett (the handpicked successor of imprisoned Ohio Rep. Bob Ney).  Doolittle’s endorsement and ties with Oller would definitely give Democrat Charlie Brown something to work with were they to go head-to-head.

Stay tuned.

(H/T: babaloo)

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I’ll start by showing the Permanent Republican Majority in its current form in the House – the distribution of seats according to the percent of the vote Bush had in 2000 in each district.  I’ve added a smooth curve through the data:

Click to enlarge.

Here’s the distribution of Democratic House seats:

Click to enlarge.

The Blue Wave of the Democrats is clearly eroding that red cliff.  And there’s a good 60 or so Republicans – some in oh-so-carefully gerrymandered districts – teetering right on the edge.  it looks like a couple dozen have fallen in. 

Below, the evolution of the House from 1993 to today, and a bit about redistricting. 

Cross posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Here’s both parties together, represented just by the curves:

Click to enlarge.

Here’s a little animation showing the distribution of House seats from 1993 to now:

Click to animate.

Here’s each year separately: 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005.

There is a problem with these charts, and that is the ideological composition of the districts is not static.  Populations change.  From 1990-2000, though, only 10% of counties had a change in population of more than 30%, so we’re probably pretty safe extending the use of 2000 data seven years forward and back.  As far as where people fall on the political spectrum, let’s assume for now that nobody changes their minds about their values.  Furthermore, we’ll use the 2000 vote as a proxy for the conservative/liberal spectrum; in this case, we have good numbers from the 2000 exit polls showing 80% of liberals voted for Gore and 81% of conservatives voted for Bush.

The most striking thing is to watch the evolution of the Republican party as it narrows to a right-wing faction.  In 1993, the country had a center/right party (Republicans) and a center/left/urban party (Democrats).  Democrats and Republicans were both ‘big tent’ parties, for better or for worse (Democrats had a few bugs in the tent lining).  In 1994, the Republicans made gains deep into moderate territory.  From 1996 to 2004, the parties generally poached seats held by the other party in their own turf, followed by Democrats consolidating seats below 50% and pushing into Republican territory in 2006.  Now, Democrats have a slightly smaller tent with some dogs tied to the outside, but Republicans only have a lean-to, albeit a tall lean-to.  Democrats still manage to elect Representatives from nearly the entire spectrum of districts in the country, which certainly helps explain why it is so difficult for Democrats to govern.  Moderate Republicans, on the other hand, are nearly extinct.  The overlap between the two parties has grown smaller as well over the years, which is probably linked to the increase in partisanship.

There is quite a change in 2002 as a result of redistricting.  Let’s look at the total distribution of seats, Republican and Democrat, before and after redistricting:

Click to enlarge.

Wow!  What an ? interesting change.  Prior to the 2000 census redistricting, we see a distribution that is common for all sorts of measurements – similar to the well-known bell curve, but skewed to one side – plus a little bump at the left for urban districts.  There are no districts that come anywhere near to being as far to the right as the urban core districts are to the left.  Even if you squeeze all the most conservative counties in the country into a few districts, you could only create two or three districts with an 80-90% level of support for Bush in 2000.  If we judge by the range of districts, then, the nation’s middle is at 45% – squarely captured by Democrats.  We represent moderation. 

Then came the redistricting.  The strategy of Republicans is clear:  push as many seats as possible just over the 50% line.  Now we have a strange distribution that looks like a camel that was swallowed by a snake.  This should have worked perfectly to ensure a Permanent Republican Majority.  Right?

Clearly not.  From the animation above, we see the Blue Wave washing right over the 50% line and sweeping seats into the sea.  The question is, was this a one-time event, or a first step?  Current conditions indicate the wave is still there today.  Next year – who knows?

Once Republicans were safely ensconced in their supposedly safe districts, did the party calculate that it could shift even further to the right without penalty?  Did it figure it could ditch the party moderates and pick up the remaining districts that voted for Bush?  Based on the hubris of Karl “The Math” Rove, it very may well have.  And that may have been part of its undoing. 

Ryan Anderson at the New Nebraska Network reported this morning on the increased chatter that Republican businessman Tony Raimondo was considering running for Senate… as a Democrat. This is a terrifying proposition, as I will explain in a moment, but worse than that is the information that we are hearing from several sources: the DSCC and the NDP are actively recruiting Raimondo to run for this Senate seat. Their logic? Money trumps all. Because it worked so well for 2006 Republican Senate candidate Pete Ricketts.

In 2004 Tony Raimondo was the Bush Administration’s pick for the newly created position of “manufacturing czar”, but after an outcry from the left (led
brilliantly by the John Kerry campaign) his name was withdrawn from consideration.  Why?

TONY RAIMONDO OUTSOURCED AMERICAN JOBS: When President Bush created
the position last year he said the nation had “lost thousands of jobs
in manufacturing…some of it because production moved overseas.” And
some of the jobs moved overseas were moved by Tony Raimondo. In 2002,
just four months after laying off 75 U.S. workers, Raimondo announced
he planned to build “a $3 million factory in northwest
Beijing…employing 180.” For his part, Raimondo was “unavailable for
comment” because he was on a “business trip to China.”

TONY RAIMONDO IS HOSTILE TO WORKERS: Raimondo is “a longtime board
member of the National Association of Manufacturers,” a group that is
notorious for opposing efforts to improve conditions for American
workers. NAM has lobbied to strip 8 million workers of federal
overtime protections, consistently opposed any effort to increase the
minimum wage to keep up with inflation and fought workplace safety
laws.

TONY RAIMONDO IS A UNION BUSTER: According to the business publication
Inc. Magazine, shortly after Raimondo took over Behlen in 1982 he
pushed hard to decertify the labor union operating at his company.
Raimondo coached management to sweet talk likely union supporters just
prior to the vote and, on a close vote, was able to bust the union.
Later, Raimondo said that had he not been able to get rid of the union
he was not sure he would “have had the courage or determination” to
continue operating the company.

TONY RAIMONDO FACED FINES FOR WORKPLACE VIOLATIONS: Under Raimondo’s
leadership Behlen has been accused by the federal government of
maintaining unsafe working conditions. On 5/16/98 The Omaha
World-Herald reported “the Occupational Safety and Health
Administration has proposed a $123,000 fine against Behlen
Manufacturing Co. of Columbus for alleged safety violations that
resulted in an employee being injured.”

TONY RAIMONDO SHILLED BUSH’S TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY: On 2/7/01 the
Omaha World-Herald reported “Bush was meeting with Nebraskan Tony
Raimondo and dozens of other small business executives as part of his
weeklong effort to build momentum for his tax package.” Raimondo was a
natural ally – he had twice given the maximum contribution to Bush’s
presidential campaign. The tax cuts Raimondo supported will cut the
taxes of a middle class manufacturing worker (making about $35,000
year) $560 next year. Meanwhile the top 1% of earners (who make, on
average, about $1 million a year) will rake in over $41,000 because of
the tax cuts.

Will the next item on this list be: TONY RAIMONDO IS YOUR NOMINEE FOR SENATE?

We need to fight this.  We have the opportunity to recruit a real
warrior in this race, Scott Kleeb, who will make Democrats stand up
and be proud.  But we are in danger of having Scott passed over in
favor of a George Bush Republican with a large bank account.  We need
to send the DSCC a strong message today: our party is not for sale.
Not to Tony Raimondo.  Not to George Bush.  Not to anyone.

Help Draft Kleeb and donate on Actblue today.

(Crossposted from UNO Democrats)

Biggest House retirement shocker of the cycle?

Rep. Mike Ferguson will announce today that he will not seek re-election to a fifth term in 2008. The 37-year-old Republican, who won re-election last year by just 1% against Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender, wants to spend more time with his four young children.

Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean, Jr. becomes one of the most likely GOP candidates for the seat. Kean, the Republican U.S. Senate in 2006, was among the candidates who ran against Ferguson in the 7th district Republican primary in 2000, when Bob Franks gave up the seat to run for the Senate.

This seat just vaulted up a dozen or so places on the list of pick-up opportunities for Democrats.

(For those keeping score, this makes 17 GOP House retirements this year.  Wowza!)

Update (Trent): While this is a seat Kerry and Gore narrowly lost (with 47% and 48%, respectively), a PVI of R+0.6 suggests Stender should be able to easily improve on last year’s performance without an incumbent in the race.