Month: November 2007

Over the weekend, people have been talking, activists have been working, and momentum has been building. Now it’s time to act.

It all started a few weeks ago. Joe Garcia, who serves as Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director (as well as a host of other activities), was interviewed by The Hill. In the interview, he said he would consider running for Congress in the 25th district, if he was asked to.

So last week I posed the idea, “FL-25: Republicans in Trouble, Should We Draft Joe Garcia?”

Basically, the Republican machine and stronghold in Miami-Dade is falling apart. What were once solidly Republican-leaning traditional Cuban-American districts are now becoming integrated districts with immigrants from around other parts of the US. And the new generation of Cuban-Americans from the districts is not buying the old Republican rallying tactics of anti-Cuba rhetoric. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq as the major issues. Republican registration is down and once solidly safe local Republican incumbents are facing the challenges of their lives, including from the Florida Netroot’s own Michael Calderin, in the 119th Florida house district. With the current political winds in our favor, we need to take advantage of this situation.

…

So the questions is, should we start asking? Should we draft Joe Garcia into the race?

Word started spreading all around Democratic circles in Miami and Florida, in the media and in the blogs.

From local Florida blog Stuck on the Palmetto:

I’ve liked Joe Garcia ever since I heard him hand Henry Gomez his a** during a debate on one of the babalu Radio Hours. It really was a thing of beauty and revealed Garcia to be articulate and forward thinking, particularly on Cuba foreign policy matters, and not mired in the failed policies of the past 40 some odd years.

[Listen to Joe debate hysterical Cuban-American hardliner Henry Gomez here. Let the broadcast download and advance it to about 19:00 when the conversation begins. The debate ends abruptly when Henry mutes Joe at 54:00.]

Joe has said he would run if he was asked. Let’s ask. Let’s start tossing out relics of the past and start looking forward.

A facebook page was created and already has over 50 members!

James L right here at Swing State Project also covered the election prospects of this run, in “FL-25: A Foe for Mario?”“

I think this could be a fun race, and I don’t think that the GOP is well-situated to appeal to the Cuban community in the long term, where the Iraq War and S-CHIP are as big of a set of concerns as they are everywhere else.  And, let’s face it, the GOP’s Latino outreach hasn’t been exactly spectacular in recent years.

Still more commented at the draft blog, Gloria wrote:

Joe Garcia is exactly what we need for the Democrats to get a voice in South Florida. I am totally behind this effort and I have personally told him to run in the past and am doing so again – Please Joe, run run run and give some other voice a chance to be heard besides one of the Diaz Balart brothers.

…

Even though I live in Lincoln’s district, Mario’s is next door and we have to start somewhere and Joe Garcia – would be great.

And Sandra said:

I will be another HUGE supporter of Joe Garcia. I write Mario Diaz Balart constantly and I am frustrated and sick of him ignoring the needs of his constituents He just repeats the talking points and the lies of the administration. I will be more than happy to volunteer my time if he decides to run.

We desperately need a change.

Meanwhile, a Republican chimed in:

I am a lifelong republican and a conservative yet I am also a Cuban-American who believes that we need new blood and ideas on the debate over Cuba policy.

Go Joe!

And one of the latest comments comes from Bonnie:

As a voter in the 25th, I urge you to run for Congress so that we will finally have a rational voice. You will have my vote and can count on my help as a volunteer.

Then Joe responded!

On Friday, Joe spoke with Nicole Sandler on WINZ radio (Media Player). In the interview, which you can listen to at the link above, Joe said he was considering the decision with his family and would likely make a decision in a couple months. He spoke positively on the Party’s efforts to get challengers running in all three districts currently represented by Republicans. On a side note, he also endorsed the idea of Publicly-Financed Elections in the interview. I think many of us couldn’t agree more.

If this wasn’t enough, in an email sent out by Joe Garcia himself to the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s mailing list, Joe had this to say:

“While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!”

I was extremely thrilled to hear this from Joe. He would make a terrific Congressman. No longer in FL-25 would we have a vote for more war. No longer would we have a vote against SCHIP and children’s health care. No longer would there be a vote against life-saving Stem Cell Research. We could actually send a Congressman to Washington who would vote for allowing negotiation for prescription drugs. We would have a Congressman who would support publicly-financed elections. But most importantly, we would add a progressive voice in Washington, who isn’t afraid to say the truth.

So now the real fun part begins. We need to let Joe know if enters this race that he will have real grassroots support to win the election. As an experienced leader, who has served his community all his life, who has stood up for those in need of help, I know he would be a worthy Congressman. But we need to step up and let Joe know we want him in Congress. Joe said he would consider running if asked. Well true to his word he is considering. Now we need to ask him to run.

The Draft Joe Garcia website/blog has been gradually launched over the weekend. Now it’s about up and running at full speed.

An Act Blue Page has also been set up and the goal is to reach 100 contributors of $5.00 each. The amount has two benefits. It’s small, so it’s not going to break anyone’s piggy bank, but it will also have an impact well beyond its monetary value. It’s about showing Joe the grassroots wants him to run and he will have our support should he enter the race. The goal is actually a bit ambitious, but I think we can reach it. This victory would be particularly sweet for the Florida netroots, which has been growing very rapidly over the last couple of years. So please contribute to get Joe in the race, if you are able.

Why I Ask Joe to Run

The reason why I’m asking for Joe to run is quite simple. Miami and surrounding counties are changing. No longer are these areas the Republican strong-holds that they once were. The 25th district’s constituency simply does not reflect the right-wing and Bush rubber-stamp votes being made by Mario Diaz-Balart. So 2008 offers us the chance to pick up the district and we need someone to run who is going to stand up for basic Democratic Party and progressive principles, like expanding health care coverage, voting to get money out of politics, and ending the war in Iraq. This is our chance to take back this seat, but not only that, send someone to Washington who is going to do the right thing for the people of the district, Florida, and America. Recently in November, Joe led Democrats to record victories in Miami-Dade elections. Now let’s lead him to victory, but first we have to get him in and build a strong grassroots network for the campaign.

Will you ask Joe to run? Will you add your voice to the many already asking Joe to give Mario the political challenge of his life?

Four Things You Can Do Right Now

Contribute $5.00
Sign The Petition
Facebook Page
Draft Website

As SSP readers know, we’ve been keeping our eyes on the Miami area for Democratic pick-up opportunities in the House next year.  In particular, Democrats are hoping to draft former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez and Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director Joe Garcia to run against the Diaz-Balart brothers.  Both of these guys would be tough opponents in districts where Democrats haven’t put up much of a fight in years.  And now, from the Miami-Dade Democratic Executive Committee blog, comes the response:

For those not on the email list of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party, here’s what Joe Garcia said in response to the rush of interest in drafting him for Congress: “While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!” […]

Garcia’s email concluded with mention of the new web site draftgarcia.com, so I think it’s safe to say he’s not against running against Mario Diaz-Balart in District 25. In an interview Friday with Nicole Sandler on WINZ AM940, he said it was a matter of convincing his wife and young daughter that it was right for the family.

Expect a decision by the second half of January, he said. […]

Meanwhile, there’s a growing web site to draft Raul Martinez, former mayor of Hialeah, to run for Congressional District 21, the seat held by Lincoln Diaz-Balart. You can hear Joe Garcia encouraging Martinez to run, in that clip on WINZ. Again, a decision likely in January.

Garcia said he knows of a handful of possible candidates to run against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Congressional District 18, and he’s encouraging them to consider it strongly.

I don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to having two or perhaps even three barn-burning races in South Florida to follow next year.

Update: Over in the diaries, Progressive America has much more info on FL-25 and Joe Garcia.

Inspired by this comment thread, and attempted only half in jest.

1) has been elected to some office with a constituency larger than 30,000 people, AND did not disgrace him/herself

OR

2) has been appointed to some office with a constituency larger than 100,000 people, AND did not disgrace him/herself

OR

3) has been in a top-three leadership position in a medium-size or larger private business, AND did not disgrace him/herself

OR

4) has been in a top-twelve leadership position in a HUGE well-connected private business, AND did not disgrace him/herself

OR

5) has been deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan AND can speak in complete sentences

OR

6) has been a “glamour working class” person such as high school teacher (male only), firefighter, high-ranking cop, non-deployed military, doctor,  etc AND is extremely hardworking OR is charismatic with a rich buddy in the background

OR

7) is really fucking rich, AND not certifiably insane (inherited wealth ok)

OR

8) is not really fucking rich, and has no obvious qualifications at all, but has a coterie of really fucking rich buddies (see: Newsom, Gavin)

OR

9) has no obviously significant qualifications, AND no pre-existing social connections to the ruling class, BUT seems dumb enough to be malleable AND belongs to electorally significant demographic group

OR

10) is the kid of anyone who has ever been elected to federal or statewide office, ever

OR

11) is married to anyone who has ever been elected to federal or statewide office, ever

OR

12) was the chief-of-staff, finance director, political director, communications director, or (if exceptionally attractive) legislative director of anyone elected to federal or statewide office, ever

OR

13) worked in the DAs office and knows exactly who is laundering the drug money, and how

OR

14) has been in grassroots/outsider politics long enough to really know what the fuck they’re doing

OR

15) works at one of the super-juiced NGOs/nonprofits in a top-three position, AND did not disgrace him/herself

OR

16) held an obnoxiously high position in the executive (or, if absolutely necessary, judicial) branch, especially the White House or Pentagon

………AND (to all of the above)

people who are involved in politics in your county should probably know who the fuck you are already.

Extra points to candidates in any category for:

A) being attractive
B) being articulate
C) having a beautiful family
D) divorce records sealed
E) not having obvious unsavory associates
F) no one has any pictures of you smoking dope
G) you know the county judge and can get that DWI record sealed
H) membership in electorally significant demographic group, ideally one without a populous enemy group in-district
I) you have pictures of Rahm Emanuel smoking dope
J) you’re willing to hire whatever super-juiced political consultant the powers-that-be tell you to hire, and you’re willing to say whatever the hell that consultant tells you to say, no matter how obviously inane or off-point
K) you can smile convincingly and play outraged compellingly while doing J

——————

I think that algorithm covers almost everyone who’s ever been elected in a non-fluke election, as well as a bunch of the obviously unelectable people whom we’ve been forced to pretend are “credible.”

That was a lot of fun.

Comments?

Matching people up to the parameters, or finding candidates who don’t fit any of them, can be a lot of fun.  Give it a whirl.  Play with candidates or suggest parameters that I obviously missed.

There sure has been a deluge of “draft” websites encouraging prospective House and Senate candidates to run, hasn't there?  I don't really recall the number of draft sites back in the 2006 cycle, but I doubt it was nearly this many.  I’ll rattle off all the ones I can think of that have popped up this year.  First, the Democrats: 

GA-Sen: Wyc Orr

KY-Sen: Crit Luallen

KY-Sen: Andrew Horne

NC-Sen: Brad Miller

NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb

NM-Sen: Tom Udall

OK-Sen: Andrew Rice

OR-Sen: Peter DeFazio

TX-Sen: Rick Noriega 

VA-Sen: Mark Warner

FL-21: Raul Martinez

FL-25: Joe Garcia

NY-21: Ron Canestrari

WA-08: Ross Hunter

And now for team red:

KY-Sen: Larry Forgy 

VA-Sen: Peter Pace 

IL-15: Adam Kinzinger

Any other sites you can think of?

There is much talk about the New Mexico Senate race, about how this is one of the top pick-up opportunities for us in 2008, but considering this, there has been a surprising lack of analysis of the primary fields (this is especially true of the Republican field). It is very important to take a good look at both fields and look at what is each one's strengths, weaknesses, and get a good insight into what the general election might look like depending on who is running.

The Democrats 

Most of us are already pretty much aware of how the Democrats stack up with each other, and pretty much understand where their primary will go, but for the hell of it, let's look at it again: 

Tom Udall – Udall is generally seen at the frontrunner for both the Democratic primary and the General election. In the primary Udall's strengths include strong support from both the national and state party, strong enthusiasm from the grassroots, electability, a solid base of support from the Democratic stronghold in the third district and state-wide recognition from being attorney general. His possible weaknesses include his lack of running for a competitive race leaves him feeling complaciant.

 Martin Chavez: Chavez is the underdog, decidedly in the primary and less obviously, in the general election. His main strengths in the primary include his ability to claim that he is an “outsider” candidate, that he has run in a competitive city and managed to win, thus giving him some experience in competitive elections. His weaknesses are that his support among the Democratic base is both shallow and narrow, local Democrats don't like him; he already lost a statewide election to a relatively unpopular governor, his fundraising base is limited (more so with Richardson's state organization likely to work against Chavez); and the only possible avenue to grant him victory is to smear Udall which will further harm his campaign. Chavez is the “Republican-lite” candidate.

 Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win the primary, because he has a much wider and deeper base of support among Democrats than Chavez and has a much better fundraising advantage, and polls and money tend to move each other.

 

 The Republicans

This is the race which is not quite as clear-cut as the Democrats. There have been many people who seem to think Steve Pearce is favored to win the nomination, but just how accurate is that? Let's look into it:

 Steve Pearce: Well, like I mentioned above, Pearce seems to be considered the favorite to win the Republican primary. Pearce's major strengths in the primary include a stronger support base than Wilson with state Republicans (representing what we refer to as “Little Texas”). His weaknesses are that he has not really fought a competitive election, and while his base is good, he doesn't show the ability to make gains nor does he seem to have a very strong fundraising base. In addition to this, he doesn't appear to be electable (state Democrats agree that they would have no problem beating Pearce in November), this can very easily be used against him.

Heather Wilson: Wilson is seen as being the underdog for the nomination, yet seen as a stronger candidate in the general election (at least compared to Pearce). Her strengths in the primary include a better campaign organization and experience in winning despite being the underdog (or simply put, she's a better candidate than Pearce). Her weaknesses include a much weaker level of base support among Republican grassroots (she doesn't inspire all that much enthusiasm among the Conservative base). Wilson is essentially “Democrat-lite”

I understand why people think that Pearce is the front-runner for the nomination, but honestly, Wilson's in a much better position to win it than people . She's got a lot of experience in fighting uphill battles, and Pearce, while having a stronger support base among Republicans, is going to have a hard time expanding on it. With Udall likely to seize the Democratic nomination, Republicans are probably more open to elect their “warrior”, so to speak. I don't think I can call anyone the true “favorite” here, but my gut tells me that Wilson is going to win the nomination.

 

 General Match-ups

 Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce: This is basically the clash of the bases, and Udall is heavily favored to win this fight. Plainly put, they both faced the same type of challengers in 2004 and 2006, throwaways, yet Udall took 69% and 75% respectively while Pearce only took 60% in both elections. Udall's support base is stronger, he is going to be better financed, and he starts off with a solid lead. Pearce doesn't have the campaigning skills nor the financial organization to match Udall, period.

 Martin Chavez vs. Steve Pearce: This is Republican-lite vs. Republican, with Pearce slightly favored to win. Yeah, I know that it's a strongly Democratic year and there are more Democrats than Republicans, but the general consensus among the liberal base is that Chavez would be the “lesser-of-two-evils” guy, thus weakening his base of support. Chavez's financial number would likely improve if he won the Democratic nomination, but he still would likely have less money than Pearce (of course the DSCC would be more than able to make up the difference and then some). If you can't count on your base to vote for you, it makes it difficult to win. Chavez might be able to make up the difference with moderates and independents, but his loss in 1998 against then-Gov. Johnson, makes this argument seem less plausible.

 Tom Udall vs. Heather Wilson: This is the Democrat vs. Democrat-lite race, with Udall favored (though not nearly as heavily as the Udall vs. Pearce one). Basically Wilson suffers from base-skepticism (much like Chavez does). The difference between Wilson's predicament and Chavez's predicament is that she is a much better candidate than Chavez in that she can probably rally her base to vote against Tom Udall than Chavez would be able to to vote against Steve Pearce. Having said that, Udall, in addition to having a more solid support base than Wilson, will also enjoy a financial advantage, especially with the DSCC able to dump money into the race. The real danger that Udall will face is becoming too comfortable with the lead, Heather Wilson is dangerous in that she knows how to come back from behind and she knows how to run a solid campaign. Like I said before, Udall is favored to win this race, but Wilson is definitely a threat which Udall would have to take very seriously.

 Martin Chavez vs. Heather Wilson: The battle of the lites, with Wilson the favorite to win. Here's where neither base likes either candidate, but in this case, the Democratic base dislikes Chavez more than the Republican base dislikes Wilson. Wilson, whatever her flaws, at least had the brains to not declare support for Bingaman's re-election. Wilson will have a solid fundraising advantage over Chavez, a better campaign organization, and is an adept campaigner compared to Chavez. On top of that, the only way Chavez wins the nomination to fight Wilson will be to smear Tom Udall, which will leave a lot of bitterness towards Chavez among Democrats, thus making it even harder to secure the base. Simply put, Wilson will beat Chavez if it comes down to it.

RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLa.com | WWLTV

2:28AM: One thing that I forgot to mention: the state Senate seat that Dems picked up tonight (SD22), was previously held by none other than Craig Romero, the briefly-hyped recruit who lost handily to Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon in 2006. Good.

12:35AM: Eh, if it’s good enough for local media, it’s good enough for me. Dems hold HD83 and retain numerical — but probably not effectual — control of the Louisiana House by a bare 53D-50R-2I margin (pending recounts). Dems also retain a 24-15 margin in the state Senate.

12:21AM: There seems to be some confusion over HD83. The SoS site says that all 20 precincts are in and that Democrat Billiot won by a 140 vote margin. But if you look at the precinct-by-precinct returns, one poll is reporting zero votes. What’s up with this? NOLA.com and WWLTV are both calling Billiot the winner; should we be satisfied with that?

12:01AM: One note on why a bare majority may not be enough in the House: a simple majority of 53 is all that’s required to elect the Speaker of the Louisiana House, but it’s generally been tradition to let the Governor designate the Speaker, from my understanding. Many House Dems aren’t happy with letting Jindal do this, and would like to buck the tradition with a party-line vote. However, it’s not hard to imagine Jindal finding a few allies among the Democratic ranks here.

11:56PM: Democrat Robert Billiot is now up by a 51%-49% margin in HD83, with one more precinct outstanding. Should he win this, Democrats would have a bare numerical majority of 53D-50R-2I in the House (at least, that’s what I and a number of folks in the comments are tallying it as).

11:40PM: Dems are holding HD103 by 4% with all precincts in. So, tallying all this up, Republicans picked up 8 seats in the D vs. R column (with a real chance of picking up the ultra-tight HD83, but likely recounts in HD14 and HD37, where the GOP candidates are winning by 9 and 26-vote margins, respectively). Democrats look like they’ve retained 7 of these seats for sure, and are leading by a mere two votes in another (HD83).

11:04PM: Looks like Dems have lost HD07, HD14 (by 9 votes — expect a recount), HD23, HD24, HD37 (by 70 votes with 31 of 32 precincts reporting, so this one could change), HD51, and HD57. Dems will hold on to HD25, HD28, HD30, HD32, HD39, and are holding on by 4% in HD103 with 16 of 22 precincts in. Here’s a nailbiter: HD83, where the Democrat leads by 2 votes with 18 of 20 precincts in. It also looks like Dems have picked up HD54.

10:25PM: Dems are looking good to retain SD07 (65%-35% lead so far), but are on path to a defeat in SD32. However, it looks like Dems have picked up SD22, where Democrat Troy Hebert has a 500+ vote lead with all precincts in.

10:22PM: 2,750 of 3,967 precincts in, and Caldwell is up over Royal Alexander by 66%-34%.

9:50PM: In the other Senate race I didn’t mention, SD25, Democrat Gil Pinac leads by a 55%-45% margin with 36 of 92 precincts in. In the runoff, Pinac claimed 39% against two Republicans.

9:47PM: Looks like Democrat Caldwell has this locked up. With 780 of 3,967 precincts reporting, he’s leading by a massive 65%-35% margin in the AG race. I suppose that combined 66% Democratic performance in October was pretty instructive, after all.

9:41PM ET: There are four Senate races worth watching (see the chart below). Democrat David Heitmeier leads Republican Paul Richard by 63%-37% in SD07 with 10 of 66 precincts in; Republicans are leading in SD22 by a 2% margin with 29 of 111 precincts in; Democrat Bryant Hammett is trailing by a wide 36%-64% margin in SD32 with 33 of 161 precincts reporting.

9:35PM ET: With 189 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Caldwell is up by 64%-36% over Royal Alexander (R). This one is looking good.

9:12PM ET: With 34 of 3,967 precincts reporting precincts reporting, Democrat Buddy Caldwell is leading the Attorney General’s race by 63% to 37%. A solid start, especially since Republicans usually have the edge in early returns and absentee counts.

---

It’s run-off day in Louisiana, where the only statewide race of note is the Attorney General’s race. That was pretty much a 33D-33R-33D result in October, but I wouldn’t care to guess how it ends up tonight. Polls close at 8PM Central/9PM Eastern.

Also, control of the state House of Representatives is up for grabs. 40 House seats are looking at runoffs today; many feature members of the same party. Dems go into the runoff holding 33 34 seats outright after October, Republicans 30 (not counting any Dem vs. Dem or GOP vs. GOP run-offs). Here’s the full list of seats in play tonight (if I missed anything, let us know). Seats are color-coded by the party who controlled them before the October elections:

D vs. D	R vs. R	D vs. R	D vs. I
HD20	HD15	HD07	HD55
HD34	HD68	HD14
HD44	HD69	HD23
HD48	HD70	HD24
HD50	HD71	HD25
HD58	HD73	HD28
HD67	HD74	HD30
HD72	HD76	HD32
HD91	HD77	HD37
HD95	HD78	HD39
HD98	HD79	HD51
	HD92	HD54
		HD57
		HD83
		HD94
		HD103
11	12	16	1

In the state Senate, Democrats go into the run-offs holding 19 seats, while Republicans hold 12. The following seats will be decided tonight:

D vs. D	R vs. R	D vs. R
SD05	SD37	SD07
SD14		SD22
SD28		SD25
		SD32

We’ll be putting up updates as the returns come in later in the evening. The results will be available here.

I am so honored.  I got a letter from Congressman Josiah Bonner, the Alabama First District’s version of Bush-puppet. In it he explained to me that voting for or against S-CHIP isn’t really a vote for or against children.  No, it is, according to the patented convoluted Republican line “a part of an ongoing conversation on the expansion of government-controlled health care and the value of the free market”.

Boy! I sure feel better about it now.  It isn’t about children. It’s about a “conversation”. And, of course, Alabama’s and America’s children and families will have time to enjoy this “conversation” while sitting in hospital emergency rooms across the country, waiting for non-emergency care that would have been covered by the S-CHIP program the Republicans killed.

But, seriously folks, how long will American voters let them get away with just plain bald faced lying about their motives? Government-controlled health care? Didn’t I hear somewhere that S-CHIP benefits are provided through private insurance companies and that private insurers back this bill consistently?  Didn’t someone mention that it is funded by an increase on the most deadly legal product available to our citizens- tobacco – and that a majority of smokers back this bill?

Bonner, in his letter, goes on to say “S-CHIP should continue as it was designed ten years ago-for children of low-income families, not adults, illegal immigrants, or wealthier families.” Well, okay.  That is probably why the bill was written by Democrats and some good, honest Republican mavericks to support children of low-income families, not adults, illegal immigrants or wealthier families. D’ya think? 

Hey, Jo.  I haven’t been following your career from the beginning, but what I hear is pretty interesting.  I hear you were not a rich man when you ran for Congress but, with the help of some really good, honest folks, like Karl Rove, Tom DeLay and the tobacco companies, you got elected.  I also hear that you are now worth several million dollars.  And I know that, as a member of Congress, you and your family have really good health care coverage. Why, with all this going for you, are you so reluctant to help the people who elected you to your gravy train. 

Oh, and Josiah.  One more quote from your letter.  “Additionally, I have co-sponsored two bills?which would reauthorize and extend S-CHIP for another ten years while accomplishing many of the goals the majority’s bill failed to reach”. Please, Sir.  Doesn’t your rapidly growing nose get in the way of your typing? Your bills wouldn’t have even covered the children currently protected and certainly wouldn’t expand coverage to the other children who are without health care.  No Sir.  Your problem is you don’t seem to regognize that we are talking about flesh and blood children here, not just pawns in the cruel Republican chess game.  You are still locked into Karl Rove’s dream of a one party nation.  It is a dream you are helping to advance, Sir, but it may not be the party you had in mind.  Everybody loves children, at least every real American I know. Lies and deceit can only carry Bush and his clones so far and the end of the road is quite visible from where you are standing.

Benjamin Lodmell will be happy to take over your Congressional seat and HE will serve the people, not the GOP and the tobacco companies.

Wow, this would be huge:

Multiple sources in Western New York politics have confirmed that there is a strong possibility that Cong. Tom Reynolds (R-Erie) will not run for a sixth term next year, opening up a race for the seat by State Sen. George Maziarz (R-Niagara), thus placing Maziarz’ seat up for grabs.

Rumors of a potential Reynolds departure and a Maziarz play for a congressional seat have been flying around political circles in Buffalo and Niagara Falls for months, though Reynolds spokesman L.D. Platt denies the rumors and says the congressman will run again.

Tom Reynolds?  He wasn’t even on the watch list!  I suppose barely winning a House race against a total crank last year amid news that he covered up for Mark Foley, all while losing the House under his tenure at the NRCC could be enough to seriously take the wind out of his sails.

This seat leans Republican on the Presidential level, with a PVI of R+3.5, but Democrats already have a challenger ready to go, Iraq Vet Jon Powers.  With Reynolds out of the picture, Powers would have an immediate (if perhaps temporary) fundraising advantage over the GOP successor, and spread the NRCC’s defenses even thinner.

Stay tuned.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

A quieter week than last, but the nerds were out in full force (hey, I’m one, too!) in a couple of redistricting threads featured on SSP.  DavidNYC also launched our very cool sortable Congressional filing deadline/primary calendar chart in the “Resources” section.

Don’t forget: run-offs in Louisiana state House and Senate races are tomorrow.  Also, the race for state Attorney General will be decided.  We’ll do our best to give you the full rundown tomorrow.

I’d also like to take this opportunity to introduce a new feature here at Swing State.  Each week, we plan to highlight interesting user diaries that we feel are worth a look.  For our first installment, take a gander at these.

Notable User Diaries:

• Democraticavenger walks us through 80 GOP House districts that he thinks should be targeted next year.
• Benawu gives us his latest exhaustive update on the number of House races with announced Democratic candidates.

Also, while you’re at it, click here or go below the fold to cast your vote in our NM-Sen GOP primary prediction poll.

Last month, we wrote about the DCCC’s efforts to recruit challengers for the south Florida districts represented by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the infamous Diaz-Balart brothers (Mario and Lincoln).  Democrats are looking to line up former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez to take on Lincoln, and he is supposed to make a decision sometime this month on the race.

But what of the other two districts?  I have yet to hear a rumored candidate to take on Ros-Lehtinen, but there is one name floating around to take on Mario Diaz-Balart: Joe García, former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation and current Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair.  (You can read more about him here and here.)  Garcia has been working to recruit strong challengers in these districts, but even went so far as to suggest that he could step up to the plate in a recent interview:

Miami-Dade County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Garcia and other Miami Democrats insist the hard-line approach to Cuba taken by Diaz-Balart is wearing thin, while GOP strategists say those policies remain popular.

Garcia is seeking candidates who are well-respected in the Cuban community but who disagree with the hard-line approach taken by the three Republican incumbents on key issues related to Cuba, such as their support for travel restrictions imposed by the Bush administration that allow Cuban-Americans to visit close relatives in Cuba once every three years. […]

Garcia himself is thought to be a potential candidate, and in an interview said he’d consider a race if his party asks him.

Well, it looks like people are starting to ask him.

I think this could be a fun race, and I don’t think that the GOP is well-situated to appeal to the Cuban community in the long term, where the Iraq War and S-CHIP are as big of a set of concerns as they are everywhere else.  And, let’s face it, the GOP’s Latino outreach hasn’t been exactly spectacular in recent years.

Will Joe give it a go?

Race Tracker: FL-25